Bayes’s Theorem is not optional

September 26, 2016
By
Bayes’s Theorem is not optional

Abstract: I present a probability puzzle, the Rain in Seattle Problem, and use it to explain differences between the Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of probability, and between Bayesian and frequentist statistical methods.  Since I am try...

Read more »

IMAODBC 2016: And the winner is…

September 26, 2016
By
IMAODBC 2016: And the winner is…

The Best Presentation Award of the International Marketing and Output Database Conference IMAODBC 2016 in Gozd Martuljek, Slovenia goes to Susanne Hagenkort-Rieger and her team from DESTATIS (Statistisches Bundesamt, Germany). In her presentation Susanne highlighted the importance of web search statistics  and why intuition when emphasizing selected statistical data is often not sufficient. To achieve … Continue reading IMAODBC 2016: And the winner is…

Read more »

Fascinating Conference at Chicago

September 26, 2016
By

I just returned from the University of Chicago conference, "Machine Learning: What's in it for Economics?"  Lots of cool things percolating.  I'm teaching a Penn Ph.D. course later this fall on aspects of the ML/econometrics interface.  ...

Read more »

Create an ogive in SAS

September 26, 2016
By
Create an ogive in SAS

My son is taking an AP Statistics course in high school this year. AP Statistics is one of the fastest-growing AP courses, so I welcome the chance to see topics and techniques in the course. Last week I was pleased to see that they teach data exploration techniques, such as […] The post Create an ogive in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

No statistically significant differences for get up and go

September 26, 2016
By

Anoop Balachandran writes: This is one of the abstracts of the paper i am about to publish: My question is can I really say both training program were effective for increasing power and function? Studies of similar duration employing sedentary control showed either negative or 1-2% changes. Also, I don’t think strength and function will […] The post No statistically significant differences for get up and go appeared first on…

Read more »

The Ten Years of EagerEyes Blogstravaganza

September 26, 2016
By
The Ten Years of EagerEyes Blogstravaganza

October 1 marks the ten-year anniversary of this website. Well, it’s really older than that, but the first posting in its modern history is dated October 1, 2006. To celebrate, this week will see a posting every day, so hold on to your hats! If you’re reading this in a feed reader, you might want […]

Read more »

Facebook and left censoring

September 26, 2016
By

From the Wall Street Journal: Several weeks ago, Facebook disclosed in a post on its “Advertiser Help Center” that its metric for the average time users spent watching videos was artificially inflated because it was only factoring in video view...

Read more »

Politics and chance

September 25, 2016
By

After the New Hampshire primary Nadia Hassan wrote: Some have noted how minor differences in how the candidates come out in these primaries can make a huge difference in the media coverage. For example, only a few thousand voters separate third and fifth and it really impacts how pundits talk about a candidate’s performance. Chance […] The post Politics and chance appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

Read more »

Windows 10 anniversary updates includes a whole Linux layer – this is good news for data scientists

September 24, 2016
By
Windows 10 anniversary updates includes a whole Linux layer – this is good news for data scientists

If you are on Windows 10, no doubt you have heard that Microsoft included the bash shell in its 2016 Windows 10 anniversary update. What you may not know is that this is much, much more than just the bash shell. This is a whole Linux layer that enables...

Read more »

Cracks in the thin blue line

September 24, 2016
By
Cracks in the thin blue line

When people screw up or cheat in their research, what do their collaborators say? The simplest case is when coauthors admit their error, as Cexun Jeffrey Cai and I did when it turned out that we’d miscoded a key variable in an analysis, invalidating the empirical claims of our award-winning paper. On the other extreme, […] The post Cracks in the thin blue line appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

Making sense of the most detailed map of gay marriages

September 23, 2016
By
Making sense of the most detailed map of gay marriages

Last week, my Columbia students discussed this nice article in the New York Times called "The Most Detailed Map of Gay Marriages in America". (link) The center of the article is this map: I asked the students to identify the problem that this dataviz is supposed to address. Someone responded that it tells us where gay married couples are found geographically. I asked her what is the answer to the…

Read more »

Trump +1 in Florida; or, a quick comment on that “5 groups analyze the same poll” exercise

September 23, 2016
By
Trump +1 in Florida; or, a quick comment on that “5 groups analyze the same poll” exercise

Nate Cohn at the New York Times arranged a comparative study on a recent Florida pre-election poll. He sent the raw data to four groups (Charles Franklin; Patrick Ruffini; Margie Omero, Robert Green, Adam Rosenblatt; and Sam Corbett-Davies, David Rothschild, and me) and asked each of us to analyze the data how we’d like to […] The post Trump +1 in Florida; or, a quick comment on that “5 groups…

Read more »

Andrew Gelman is not the plagiarism police because there is no such thing as the plagiarism police.

September 23, 2016
By
Andrew Gelman is not the plagiarism police because there is no such thing as the plagiarism police.

The title of this post is a line that Thomas Basbøll wrote a couple years ago. Before I go on, let me say that the fact that I have not investigated this case in detail is not meant to imply that it’s not important or that it’s not worth investigating. It’s just not something that […] The post Andrew Gelman is not the plagiarism police because there is no such…

Read more »

Multicollinearity causing risk and uncertainty

September 22, 2016
By

Alexia Gaudeul writes: Maybe you will find this interesting / amusing / frightening, but the Journal of Risk and Uncertainty recently published a paper with a rather obvious multicollinearity problem. The issue does not come up that often in the published literature, so I thought you might find it interesting for your blog. The paper […] The post Multicollinearity causing risk and uncertainty appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

an inverse permutation test

September 22, 2016
By
an inverse permutation test

A straightforward but probabilistic riddle this week in the Riddler, which is to find the expected order of integer i when the sequence {1,2,…,n} is partitioned at random into two sets, A and B, each of which is then sorted before both sets are merged. For instance, if {1,2,3,4} is divided in A={1,4} and B={2,3}, […]

Read more »

Why is the scientific replication crisis centered on psychology?

September 22, 2016
By

The replication crisis is a big deal. But it’s a problem in lots of scientific fields. Why is so much of the discussion about psychology research? Why not economics, which is more controversial and gets more space in the news media? Or medicine, which has higher stakes and a regular flow of well-publicized scandals? Here […] The post Why is the scientific replication crisis centered on psychology? appeared first on…

Read more »

Talk: Pie Charts – Unloved, Unstudied, and Misunderstood

September 22, 2016
By
Talk: Pie Charts – Unloved, Unstudied, and Misunderstood

I gave a talk at Information+ earlier this year that has now been posted. It's about pie charts! And it was a fun talk, too. The video is focused a bit too much on me at the beginning, so you'll miss a few of the early jokes. But for the most part, you'll see the […]

Read more »

“Crimes Against Data”: My talk at Ohio State University this Thurs; “Solving Statistics Problems Using Stan”: My talk at the University of Michigan this Fri

September 21, 2016
By

Crimes Against Data Statistics has been described as the science of uncertainty. But, paradoxically, statistical methods are often used to create a sense of certainty where none should exist. The social sciences have been rocked in recent years by highly publicized claims, published in top journals, that were reported as “statistically significant” but are implausible […] The post “Crimes Against Data”: My talk at Ohio State University this Thurs; “Solving…

Read more »

What has happened down here is the winds have changed

September 21, 2016
By
What has happened down here is the winds have changed

Someone sent me this article by psychology professor Susan Fiske, scheduled to appear in the APS Observer, a magazine of the Association for Psychological Science. The article made me a little bit sad, and I was inclined to just keep my response short and sweet, but then it seemed worth the trouble to give some […] The post What has happened down here is the winds have changed appeared first…

Read more »

Simulate data from a generalized Gaussian distribution

September 21, 2016
By
Simulate data from a generalized Gaussian distribution

Although statisticians often assume normally distributed errors, there are important processes for which the error distribution has a heavy tail. A well-known heavy-tailed distribution is the t distribution, but the t distribution is unsuitable for some applications because it does not have finite moments (means, variance,...) for small parameter values. […] The post Simulate data from a generalized Gaussian distribution appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

A Fun Gastronomical Dataset: What’s on the Menu?

September 20, 2016
By
A Fun Gastronomical Dataset: What’s on the Menu?

I just found a fun food themed dataset that I’d never heard about and that I thought I’d share. It’s from a project called What’s on the menu where the New York Public Library has crowdsourced a digitization of their collection of historical ...

Read more »

Uncertainty in a probability

September 20, 2016
By
Uncertainty in a probability

Suppose you did a pilot study with 10 subjects and found a treatment was effective in 7 out of the 10 subjects. With no more information than this, what would you estimate the probability to be that the treatment is effective in the next subject? Easy: 0.7. Now what would you estimate the probability to be […]

Read more »

On "Shorter Papers"

September 20, 2016
By

Journals should not corral shorter papers into sections like "Shorter Papers".  Doing so sends a subtle (actually unsubtle) message that shorter papers are basically second-class citizens, somehow less good, or less important, or less so...

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe