## Tip of the day: don’t be Theranosed

May 23, 2016
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Theranos (v): to spin stories that appeal to data while not presenting any data To be Theranosed is to fall for scammers who tell stories appealing to data but do not present any actual data. This is worse than story time, in which the storyteller starts out with real data but veers off mid-stream into unsubstantiated froth, hoping you and I got carried away by the narrative flow. Theranos (n):…

## How to fit a variety of logistic regression models in SAS

May 23, 2016
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SAS software can fit many different kinds of regression models. In fact a common question on the SAS Support Communities is "how do I fit a <name> regression model in SAS?" And within that category, the most frequent questions involve how to fit various logistic regression models in SAS. There […] The post How to fit a variety of logistic regression models in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

## Bayes 2016

May 23, 2016
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Earlier this week I was at the Bayes 2016 meeting, in lovely Leuven. Although I've been to Belgium quite a few times before, this was my first trip to Leuven \$-\$ somebody who used to work at UCL once told me that they didn't really like the place,...

## Row-Level Thinking vs. Cube Thinking

May 23, 2016
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Our mental model of a dataset changes the way we ask questions. One aspect of that is the shape of the data (long or wide); an equally important issue is whether we think of the data as a collection of rows of numbers that we can aggregate bottom-up, or as a complete dataset that we can slice top-down to ask … Continue reading Row-Level Thinking vs. Cube Thinking

## A Quick Illustration of Pre-Testing Bias

May 23, 2016
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The statistical and econometric literature on the properties of "preliminary-test" (or "pre-test") estimation strategies is large and well established. These strategies arise when we proceed in a sequential manner when drawing inferences about paramete...

## Not So Standard Deviations Episode 16 – The Silicon Valley Episode

May 23, 2016
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Roger and Hilary are back, with Hilary broadcasting from the west coast. Hilary and Roger discuss the possibility of scaling data analysis and how that may or may not work for companies like Palantir. Also, the latest on Theranos and the release of dat...

## Update On Theranos

May 23, 2016
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I think it’s fair to say that things for Theranos, the Silicon Valley blood testing company, are not looking up. From the Wall Street Journal (via The Verge): Theranos has voided two years of results from its Edison blood-testing machines, issuin...

## Martin Amis on How to Write a Great Sentence

May 22, 2016
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It's been a while since I did a piece on good writing, for students.   In an old post I said "Listen to your words; push your prose toward poetry."  That's perhaps a bit much -- you don't need to write poetry, but you do need to lis...

## occupancy rules

May 22, 2016
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$occupancy rules$

While the last riddle on The Riddler was rather anticlimactic, namely to find the mean of the number Y of empty bins in a uniform multinomial with n bins and m draws, with solution [which still has a link with e in that the fraction of empty bins converges to e⁻¹ when n=m], this led […]

## Now that’s what I call a power pose!

May 22, 2016
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John writes: See below for your humour file or blogging on a quiet day. . . . Perhaps you could start a competition for the wackiest real-life mangling of statistical concepts (restricted to a genuine academic setting?). On 15 Feb 2016, at 5:25 PM, [****] wrote: Pick of the bunch from tomorrow’s pile of applications […] The post Now that’s what I call a power pose! appeared first on Statistical…

## BCEA 2.2-3 is out

May 22, 2016
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I think the newest release of BCEA, our R package to standardise and post-process the output of a health economic model, is now available from CRAN \$-\$ in fact, the source code is also available here. The package is rather stable, so the...

## Source for the marketAgent R package

May 22, 2016
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I recently gave a talk at the R in Finance conference in which I introduced the marketAgent package for R. Here is the source for the package if you’d like to play with it: marketAgent_0.000.tar I’ll be giving more details of the talk real ...

## “Stop the Polling Insanity”

May 21, 2016
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Norman Ornstein and Alan Abramowitz warn against over-interpreting poll fluctuations: In this highly charged election, it’s no surprise that the news media see every poll like an addict sees a new fix. That is especially true of polls that show large and unexpected changes. Those polls get intense coverage and analysis, adding to their presumed […] The post “Stop the Polling Insanity” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Nick and Nate and Mark on Leicester and Trump

May 20, 2016
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Just following up on our post the other day on retrospective evaluations of probabilistic predictions: For more on Leicester City, see Nick Goff on Why did bookmakers lose on Leicester? and What price SHOULD Leicester have been? (forwarded to me by commenter Iggy). For more on Trump, see Nate Silver on How I Acted Like […] The post Nick and Nate and Mark on Leicester and Trump appeared first on…

## Simulating a Weibull conditional on time-to-event is greater than a given time

May 20, 2016
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Recently, I had to simulate a time-to-event of subjects who have been on a study, are still ongoing at the time of a data cut, but who are still at risk of an event (e.g. progressive disease, cardiac event, death). This requires the simulation of a con...

## Hazard Functions for U.S. Expansions

May 20, 2016
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Glenn Rudebusch has a very nice 2016 FRBSF Letter, "Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age?".  He draws on perspective and results from our joint work of 25 years ago (including a paper we did with Dan Sichel -- see below), and he applies them ...

## R/Finance 2016: Applied Finance with R

May 20, 2016
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At R/Finance 2016: Applied Finance with R.  Interesting group, with many constituencies, and interesting program, which appears below (or go to http://www.rinfinance.com/agenda/).Friday, May 20th, 201608:00 - 09:00Optional Pre-...

## ABC random forests for Bayesian parameter inference

May 19, 2016
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Before leaving Helsinki, we arXived [from the Air France lounge!] the paper Jean-Michel presented on Monday at ABCruise in Helsinki. This paper summarises the experiments Louis conducted over the past months to assess the great performances of a random forest regression approach to ABC parameter inference. Thus validating in this experimental sense the use of […]

## Will transparency damage science?

May 19, 2016
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Jonathan Sterne sent me this opinion piece by Stephan Lewandowsky and Dorothy Bishop, two psychology researchers who express concern that the movement for science and data transparency has been abused. It would be easy for me to dismiss them and take a hard-line pro-transparency position—and I do take a hard-line pro-transparency position—but, as they remind […] The post Will transparency damage science? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Bias against women in academia

May 19, 2016
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I’m not the best one to write about this: to the extent that there’s bias in favor of men, I’ve been a beneficiary. Also I’m not familiar with the research on the topic. I know there are some statistical difficulties in setting up these causal questions, comparable to the difficulties arising in using “hedonic regression” […] The post Bias against women in academia appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

## Using MCMC output to efficiently estimate Bayes factors

May 18, 2016
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$Using MCMC output to efficiently estimate Bayes factors$

As I was checking for software to answer a query on X validated about generic Bayes factor derivation, I came across an R software called BayesFactor, which only applies in regression settings and relies on the Savage-Dickey representation of the Bayes factor when the null hypothesis writes as θ=θ⁰ (and possibly additional nuisance parameters with […]

## Learning to Love Bayesian Statistics

May 18, 2016
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I did a webcast earlier today about Bayesian statistics.  Some time in the next week, the video should be available from O'Reilly.  In the meantime, you can see my slides here: And here's a transcript of what I said:Thanks everyone for joinin...

## Law versus ethics: how the new overtime pay rule will play out

May 18, 2016
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In any discussion of ethics , someone is bound to bring up the law: it is okay to do something if something is not against the law. The logical conclusion of this belief is that ethics is irrelevant in the presence of the law. The recent stories relating to minimum wage and the overtime pay rule changes (for example, link) argue strongly against such a point of view. The law…