Staying on Top of the Literature

May 23, 2017
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Staying on Top of the Literature

Recently, 'Michael' placed the following comment on one of my posts:"Thanks for sharing this interesting list of articles! I'm wondering, how do you go about finding these types of articles to read? Are you a subscriber to these publications/do you reg...

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How is a politician different from a 4-year-old?

May 23, 2017
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How is a politician different from a 4-year-old?

A few days ago I shared my reactions to an op-ed by developmental psychologist Alison Gopnik. Gopnik replied: As a regular reader of your blog, I thought you and your readers might be interested in a response to your very fair comments. In the original draft I had an extra few paragraphs (below) that speak […] The post How is a politician different from a 4-year-old? appeared first on Statistical…

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ISI Karl Pearson Prize for 2017

ISI Karl Pearson Prize for 2017

Recently I was privileged to sit on the committee that selects the winner of the Karl Pearson Prize. KP was, of course, an early mathematical statistician, famous for many commonly-used statistical methods and tools including histograms, the correlatio...

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Quick update

May 22, 2017
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Quick update

This is going to be a very short post. I've been again following the latest polls and have updated my election forecast model $-$ nothing has changed in the general structure, only new data coming as the campaigns evolve.The dynamic forecast (which con...

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Design top down, Code bottom up

May 22, 2017
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Top-down design means designing from the client application programmer interface (API) down to the code. The API lays out a precise functional specification, which says what the code will do, not how it will do it. Coding bottom up means coding the lowest-level foundations first, testing them, then continuing to build. Sometimes this requires dropping […] The post Design top down, Code bottom up appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Big Data in Econometric Modeling

May 22, 2017
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Big Data in Econometric Modeling

Here's a speakers' photo from last week's Penn conference, Big Data in Dynamic Predictive Econometric Modeling.  Click through to find the program, copies of papers and slides, a participant list, and a few more photos.  A good and productive...

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How to think scientifically about scientists’ proposals for fixing science

May 22, 2017
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I wrote this article for a sociology journal: Science is in crisis. Any doubt about this status has surely been been dispelled by the loud assurances to the contrary by various authority figures who are deeply invested in the current system and have written things such as, “Psychology is not in crisis, contrary to popular […] The post How to think scientifically about scientists’ proposals for fixing science appeared first…

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Quantile definitions in SAS

May 22, 2017
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Quantile definitions in SAS

In last week's article about the Flint water crisis, I computed the 90th percentile of a small data set. Although I didn't mention it, the value that I reported is different from the the 90th percentile that is reported in Significance magazine. That is not unusual. The data only had [...] The post Quantile definitions in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Finally, Four Backticks on Github

Finally, Four Backticks on Github

It is always the little things… Over the years, I have been totally happy with almost everything about Github, but I have also been waiting for one little thing:1 I wish we could enclose text that contains N backticks with a pair of N + 1 backticks in Github issues/comments, i.e., ```` ```{r, echo=TRUE} 1 + 1 ``` ```` so that we could show a literal R code chunk like…

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An obvious fact about constrained systems.

May 21, 2017
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An obvious fact about constrained systems.

  This post is not by Andrew. This post is by Phil. This post is prompted by Andrew’s recent post about the book “Everything is obvious once you know the answer,” together with a recent discussion I’ve been involved in. I’m going to say something obvious. True story: earlier this year I was walking around […] The post An obvious fact about constrained systems. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Some natural solutions to the p-value communication problem—and why they won’t work.

May 21, 2017
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Some natural solutions to the p-value communication problem—and why they won’t work.

John Carlin and I write: It is well known that even experienced scientists routinely misinterpret p-values in all sorts of ways, including confusion of statistical and practical significance, treating non-rejection as acceptance of the null hypothesis, and interpreting the p-value as some sort of replication probability or as the posterior probability that the null hypothesis […] The post Some natural solutions to the p-value communication problem—and why they won’t work.…

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#NotAll4YearOlds

May 21, 2017
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I think there’s something wrong this op-ed by developmental psychologist Alison Gopnik, “4-year-olds don’t act like Trump,” and which begins, The analogy is pervasive among his critics: Donald Trump is like a child. . . . But the analogy is profoundly wrong, and it’s unfair to children. The scientific developmental research of the past 30 […] The post #NotAll4YearOlds appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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New series: R and big data (concentrating on Spark and sparklyr)

May 20, 2017
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New series: R and big data (concentrating on Spark and sparklyr)

Win-Vector LLC has recently been teaching how to use R with big data through Spark and sparklyr. We have also been helping clients become productive on R/Spark infrastructure through direct consulting and bespoke training. I thought this would be a good time to talk about the power of working with big-data using R, share some … Continue reading New series: R and big data (concentrating on Spark and sparklyr)

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Hotel room aliases of the statisticians

May 20, 2017
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Hotel room aliases of the statisticians

Barry Petchesky writes: Below you’ll find a room list found before Game 1 at the Four Seasons in Houston (right across from the arena), where the Thunder were staying for their first-round series against the Rockets. We didn’t run it then because we didn’t want Rockets fans pulling the fire alarm or making late-night calls […] The post Hotel room aliases of the statisticians appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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The EViews Blog on ARDL – Part 3

May 20, 2017
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The EViews Blog on ARDL  – Part 3

As I mentioned in this recent post, the EViews team had a third blog post on ARDL modelling up their sleeves. The said post appeared a few days ago, here.It's a real gem! The flow-chart and the detailed application are fabulous - I wish I could have co...

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When Everything Old is New Again

May 19, 2017
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When Everything Old is New Again

Some ideas are so good that they keep re-appearing again and again. In other words, they stand the test of time, and prove to be useful in lots of different contexts – sometimes in situations that we couldn’t have imagined when the idea first came ...

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A continuous hinge function for statistical modeling

May 19, 2017
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A continuous hinge function for statistical modeling

This comes up sometimes in my applied work: I want a continuous “hinge function,” something like the red curve above, connecting two straight lines in a smooth way. Why not include the sharp corner (in this case, the function y=-0.5*x if x0)? Two reasons. First, computation: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo can trip on discontinuities. Second, I […] The post A continuous hinge function for statistical modeling appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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A Note on on.exit()

I have used on.exit() for several years, but it was not until the other day that I realized a very weird thing about it: you’d better follow the default positions of its arguments expr and add, i.e., the first argument has to be expr and the second has to be add. on.exit(expr = NULL, add = FALSE) If you do on.exit(add = TRUE, {...}), weird things can happen. I discovered…

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continental divide

May 18, 2017
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continental divide

While the Riddler puzzle this week was anticlimactic,  as it meant filling all digits in the above division towards a null remainder, it came as an interesting illustration of how different division is taught in the US versus France: when I saw the picture above, I had to go and check an American primary school […]

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My review of Duncan Watts’s book, “Everything is Obvious (once you know the answer)”

May 18, 2017
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We had some recent discussion of this book in the comments and so I thought I’d point you to my review from a few years ago. Lots to chew on in the book, and in the review. The post My review of Duncan Watts’s book, “Everything is Ob...

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Causal inference using Bayesian additive regression trees: some questions and answers

May 18, 2017
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[cat picture] Rachael Meager writes: We’re working on a policy analysis project. Last year we spoke about individual treatment effects, which is the direction we want to go in. At the time you suggested BART [Bayesian additive regression trees; these are not averages of tree models as are usually set up; rather, the key is […] The post Causal inference using Bayesian additive regression trees: some questions and answers appeared…

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Academic vacancies at Monash

Academic vacancies at Monash

We are hiring again, at all academic levels. While all fields of specialisation within econometrics and statistics are open, expertise in any of Business Analytics, Data Science, Applied Econometrics and Actuarial Science is particularly encouraged. A...

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How I Find, Manage, and Use GIFs

How I Find, Manage, and Use GIFs

A few months ago Jenny wanted me (and Karthik, if I remember correctly) to share some experience with GIFs. I have been busy with writing the blogdown book recently and don’t really have much time, so I’m going to write a quick post just to take a short break. I may expand this post in the future. First thing first. I tend to pronounce “GIF” with the soft G, but…

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