Euro 2016 update

June 26, 2016
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Euro 2016 update

Big news out of Europe, everyone’s talking about soccer. Leo Egidi updated his model and now has predictions for the Round of 16: Here’s Leo’s report, and here’s his zipfile with data and Stan code. The report contains some ugly histograms showing the predictive distributions of goals to be scored in each game. The R […] The post Euro 2016 update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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What they’re saying about “blended learning”: “Perhaps the most reasonable explanation is that no one watched the video or did the textbook reading . . .”

June 25, 2016
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What they’re saying about “blended learning”:  “Perhaps the most reasonable explanation is that no one watched the video or did the textbook reading . . .”

Someone writes in: I was wondering if you had a chance to see the commentary by the Stockwells on blended learning strategies that was recently published in Cell and which also received quite a nice write up by Columbia. It’s also currently featured on Columbia’s webpage. In fact, I was a student in Prof. Stockwell’s […] The post What they’re saying about “blended learning”: “Perhaps the most reasonable explanation is…

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Choosing Between the Logit and Probit Models

June 25, 2016
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Choosing Between the Logit and Probit Models

I've had quite a bit say about Logit and Probit models, and the Linear Probability Model (LPM), in various posts in recent years. (For instance, see here.) I'm not going to bore you by going over old ground again.However, an important question came up ...

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Brexit polling: What went wrong?

June 24, 2016
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Brexit polling:  What went wrong?

Commenter numeric writes: Since you were shilling for yougov the other day you might want to talk about their big miss on Brexit (off by 6% from their eve-of-election poll—remain up 2 on their last poll and leave up by 4 as of this posting). Fair enough: Had Yougov done well, I could use them […] The post Brexit polling: What went wrong? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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My talk tomorrow (Thurs) 10:30am at ICML in NYC

June 24, 2016
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I’ll be speaking at the workshop on Data-Efficient Machine Learning. And here’s the schedule. I’ll be speaking on the following topic: Toward Routine Use of Informative Priors Bayesian statistics is typically performed using noninformative priors but the resulting inferences commonly make no sense and also can lead to computational problems as algorithms have to waste […] The post My talk tomorrow (Thurs) 10:30am at ICML in NYC appeared first on…

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It comes down to reality and it’s fine with me cause I’ve let it slide

June 23, 2016
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It comes down to reality and it’s fine with me cause I’ve let it slide

E. J. Wagenmakers pointed me to this recent article by Roy Baumeister, who writes: Patience and diligence may be rewarded, but competence may matter less than in the past. Getting a significant result with n = 10 often required having an intuitive flair for how to set up the most conducive situation and produce a […] The post It comes down to reality and it’s fine with me cause I’ve…

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Observed Info vs. Estimated Expected Info

June 23, 2016
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All told, after decades of research, it seems that Efron-Hinkley holds up -- observed information dominates estimated expected information MLE standard errors. It's both easier to calculate and more accurate. Let me know if you disagree.[Efron, B. and ...

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Teaching sampling with dragon data cards

June 23, 2016
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Teaching sampling with dragon data cards

Data cards for teaching statistics Data cards are a wonderful way for students to get a feel for data. As a University lecturer in the 1990s, I found that students often didn’t understand about the multivariate nature of data. This … Continue reading →

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What is reproducible research?

June 23, 2016
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What is reproducible research?

I was asked about my understanding of reproducible research, and how that applies to social research. Here is how I see: Reproducible research is key to any scientific method, including applied social sciences. My minimalist understanding of reproduci...

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y-aware scaling in context

June 22, 2016
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Nina Zumel introduced y-aware scaling in her recent article Principal Components Regression, Pt. 2: Y-Aware Methods. I really encourage you to read the article and add the technique to your repertoire. The method combines well with other methods and can drive better predictive modeling results. From feedback I am not sure everybody noticed that in … Continue reading y-aware scaling in context

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Time-reversal heuristic as randomization, and p < .05 as conflict of interest declaration

June 22, 2016
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Alex Gamma writes: Reading your blog recently has inspired two ideas which have in common that they analogize statistical concepts with non-statistical ones related to science: The time-reversal heuristic as randomization: Pushing your idea further leads to the notion of randomization of the sequence of study “reporting”. Studies are produced sequentially, but consumers of science […] The post Time-reversal heuristic as randomization, and p < .05 as conflict of interest…

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Raining, data art, if it ain’t broke

June 22, 2016
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Raining, data art, if it ain’t broke

Via Twitter, reader Joe D. asked a few of us to comment on the SparkRadar graphic by WeatherSpark. At the time of writing, the picture for Baltimore is very pretty: The picture for New York is not as pretty but...

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Use the EFFECTPLOT statement to visualize regression models in SAS

June 22, 2016
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Use the EFFECTPLOT statement to visualize regression models in SAS

Graphs enable you to visualize how the predicted values for a regression model depend on the model effects. You can gain an intuitive understanding of a model by using the EFFECTPLOT statement in SAS to create graphs like the one shown at the top of this article. Many SAS regression […] The post Use the EFFECTPLOT statement to visualize regression models in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Publicize, Don’t Just Publish!

June 22, 2016
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Publicize, Don’t Just Publish!

What does it mean to publish a paper? Is it just to add a bullet point to your CV, or do you want the world to know about your research? What does it mean to publish today? Here are some thoughts and pointers on how to get the word out about the amazing work you … Continue reading Publicize, Don’t Just Publish!

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Mixed-Frequency High-Dimensional Time Series

June 22, 2016
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Notice that high dimensions and mixed frequencies go together in time series. (If you're looking at a huge number of series, it's highly unlikely that all will be measured at the same frequency, unless you arbitrarily exclude all frequencies but one.) ...

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YouGov uses Mister P for Brexit poll

June 21, 2016
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YouGov uses Mister P for Brexit poll

Ben Lauderdale and Doug Rivers give the story: There has been a lot of noise in polling on the upcoming EU referendum. Unlike the polls before the 2015 General Election, which were in almost perfect agreement (though, of course, not particularly close to the actual outcome), this time the polls are in serious disagreement. Telephone […] The post YouGov uses Mister P for Brexit poll appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Conditional Dependence and Partial Correlation

June 21, 2016
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In the multivariate normal case, conditional independence is the same as zero partial correlation.  (See below.) That makes a lot of things a lot simpler.  In particular, determining ordering in a DAG is just a matter of assessing partial cor...

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Introducing the p-hacker app: Train your expert p-hacking skills

June 21, 2016
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[This is a guest post by Ned Bicare, PhD]   Start the p-hacker app! My dear fellow scientists! “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess.” This aphorism, attributed to Ronald Coase, sometimes has been used in a disrespective manner, ...

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Reduced-dimensionality parameterizations for linear models with interactions

June 21, 2016
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After seeing this post by Matthew Wilson on a class of regression models called “factorization machines,” Aki writes: In a typical machine learning way, this is called “machine”, but it would be also a useful mode structure in Stan to make linear models with interactions, but with a reduced number of parameters. With a fixed […] The post Reduced-dimensionality parameterizations for linear models with interactions appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Why I don’t believe the claim that Fox News can get Trump elected

June 20, 2016
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Full story in the sister blog. Short story is that some economists did some out-of-control extrapolations. More of my recent sister blog entries here. The post Why I don’t believe the claim that Fox News can get Trump elected appeared first on Stati...

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Clarke’s Law: Any sufficiently crappy research is indistinguishable from fraud

June 20, 2016
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Clarke’s Law:  Any sufficiently crappy research is indistinguishable from fraud

The originals: Clarke’s first law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. Clarke’s second law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into […] The post Clarke’s Law: Any sufficiently crappy research is indistinguishable from fraud appeared first…

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On deck this week

June 20, 2016
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Mon: Clarke’s Law: Any sufficiently crappy research is indistinguishable from fraud Tues: Reduced-dimensionality parameterizations for linear models with interactions Wed: Time-reversal heuristic as randomization, and p < .05 as conflict of interest declaration Thurs: It comes down to reality and it’s fine with me cause I’ve let it slide Fri: Can a census-tract-level regression analysis […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Your emails are being read (though I also think this is a hoax)

June 20, 2016
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CNBC reports that Goldman Sachs flags employee emails based on a long list of "offending" phrases. If an employee types a profanity, apparently a window pops up to confirm that the person really truly wants to say that word. The other objective given is to detect fraudulent behavior. The list they published apparently came from 2008, so very aged, but I think it is a hoax. Many of the terms…

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