30 tickets left to StanCon 2017! New sponsor!

January 17, 2017
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30 tickets left to StanCon 2017! New sponsor!

Stan Conference 2017 is on Saturday. We just sold our 150th ticket! Capacity is 180. It’s going to be an amazing event. Register here (while tickets are still available): https://stancon2017.eventbrite.com Our Q&A Panel will have some members of the Stan Development Team: Andrew Gelman. Stan super user. Bob Carpenter. Stan language, math library. Michael Betancourt. […] The post 30 tickets left to StanCon 2017! New sponsor! appeared first on Statistical…

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30 tickets left to StanCon 2017! New sponsor!

January 17, 2017
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30 tickets left to StanCon 2017! New sponsor!

Stan Conference 2017 is on Saturday. We just sold our 150th ticket! Capacity is 180. It’s going to be an amazing event. Register here (while tickets are still available): https://stancon2017.eventbrite.com Our Q&A Panel will have some members of the Stan Development Team: Andrew Gelman. Stan super user. Bob Carpenter. Stan language. Michael Betancourt. Stan algorithms, […] The post 30 tickets left to StanCon 2017! New sponsor! appeared first on Statistical…

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R from Excel

January 17, 2017
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When I first started getting into data analysis and statistics I didn’t really have a clue with what i was doing, but as then as now the default tool was Excel, must have been Excel 97. Now the spreadsheet model for data analysis isn’t the ...

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Two meanings of priors, part II: Quantifying uncertainty about model parameters

January 17, 2017
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by Angelika Stefan & Felix Schönbrodt This is the second part of “Two meanings of priors”. The first part explained a first meaning – “priors as subjective probabilities of models”. While the first meaning of priors r...

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Royal Economic Society Webcasts on Econometrics

January 17, 2017
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Royal Economic Society Webcasts on Econometrics

The Royal Economic Society has recently released videos of interviews with three leading econometricans, recorded during the Society's 2016 Meeting. These are: Econometric Methods: An interview with Bruce HansenAn interview with Andrew ChesherUsin...

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This headline writer has the secret to everlasting life

January 17, 2017
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This headline writer has the secret to everlasting life

I'm busy preparing a long post that will show up later. In the meantime, I saw this on GrubStreet: Read the sub-header. Wouldn't it be nice to have only 87 percent chance of dying?

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“If the horse race polls were all wrong about Trump, why should his approval rating polls be any better?”

January 17, 2017
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A journalist forwarded the above question to me and asked what I thought. My reply is that the horse race polls were not all wrong about Trump. The polls had him at approx 48% of the two-party vote and he received 49%. The polls were wrong by a few percentage points in some key swing […] The post “If the horse race polls were all wrong about Trump, why should…

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Laurie Davies: time series decomposition of birthday data

January 17, 2017
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On the cover of BDA3 is a Bayesian decomposition of the time series of birthdays in the U.S. over a 20-year period. We modeled the data as a sum of Gaussian processes and fit it using GPstuff. Occasionally we fit this model to new data; see for example this discussion of Friday the 13th and […] The post Laurie Davies: time series decomposition of birthday data appeared first on Statistical…

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Stan is hiring! hiring! hiring! hiring!

January 17, 2017
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[insert picture of adorable cat entwined with Stan logo] We’re hiring postdocs to do Bayesian inference. We’re hiring programmers for Stan. We’re hiring a project manager. How many people we hire depends on what gets funded. But we’re hiring a few people for sure. We want the best best people who love to collaborate, who […] The post Stan is hiring! hiring! hiring! hiring! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Impulse Responses From Smooth Local Projections

January 16, 2017
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Check out Barnichon-Brownlees (2017) (BB).  As proposed and developed in Jorda (2005), they estimate impulse-response functions (IRF's) directly by projecting outcomes on estimates of structural shocks at various horizons, as opposed to inver...

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Powerpose update

January 16, 2017
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Powerpose update

I contacted Anna Dreber, one of the authors of the paper that failed to replicate power pose, and asked her about a particular question that came up regarding their replication study. One of the authors of the original power pose study wrote that the replication “varied methodologically in about a dozen ways — some of […] The post Powerpose update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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PUT it there! Six tips for using PUT and %PUT statements in SAS

January 16, 2017
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PUT it there! Six tips for using PUT and %PUT statements in SAS

For SAS programmers, the PUT statement in the DATA step and the %PUT macro statement are useful statements that enable you to display the values of variables and macro variables, respectively. By default, the output appears in the SAS log. This article shares a few tips that help you to […] The post PUT it there! Six tips for using PUT and %PUT statements in SAS appeared first on The…

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New Series: ISOTYPE Books

January 16, 2017
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New Series: ISOTYPE Books

Presenting facts through data is not a recent idea. Otto and Marie Neurath created ISOTYPE in the 1920s and then ran their ISOTYPE Institute for more than two decades. During that time, they created charts for a wide variety of publications. In this series, I will show a number of these charts that I have […]

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The Class-size debate – it matters to teachers

January 16, 2017
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The Class-size debate – it matters to teachers

Class size matters to teachers Class size is a perennial question in education. What is the ideal size for a school class? Teachers would like smaller classes, to improve learning. There is evidence of a small positive effect size due … Continue reading →

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To know the past, one must first know the future: The relevance of decision-based thinking to statistical analysis

January 15, 2017
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We can break up any statistical problem into three steps: 1. Design and data collection. 2. Data analysis. 3. Decision making. It’s well known that step 1 typically requires some thought of steps 2 and 3: It is only when you have a sense of what you will do with your data, that you can […] The post To know the past, one must first know the future: The relevance…

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Frank Harrell statistics blog!

January 14, 2017
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Frank Harrell, author of an influential book on regression modeling and currently both a biostatistics professor and a statistician at the Food and Drug Administration, has started a blog. He sums up “some of his personal philosophy of statistics” here: Statistics needs to be fully integrated into research; experimental design is all important Don’t be […] The post Frank Harrell statistics blog! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Beginners Exercise: Bayesian Computation with Stan and Farmer Jöns

January 14, 2017
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Beginners Exercise: Bayesian Computation with Stan and Farmer Jöns

Over the last two years I’ve occasionally been giving a very basic tutorial to Bayesian statistics using R and Stan. At the end of the tutorial I hand out an exercise for those that want to flex their newly acquired skills. I call this exercise Bay...

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RStudio Conference 2017 Recap

January 14, 2017
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RStudio Conference 2017 Recap

The first ever RStudio conference was held January 11-14, 2017 in Orlando, FL. For anyone else like me who spends hours each working day staring into an RStudio session, the conference was truly excellent. The speaker lineup was diverse and covered lot...

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No evidence of incumbency disadvantage?

January 14, 2017
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No evidence of incumbency disadvantage?

Several years ago I learned that the incumbency advantage in India was negative! There, the politicians are so unpopular that when they run for reelection they’re actually at a disadvantage, on average, compared to fresh candidates. At least, that’s what I heard. But Andy Hall and Anthony Fowler just wrote a paper claiming that, no, […] The post No evidence of incumbency disadvantage? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Vintage Years in Econometrics – The 1970′s

January 14, 2017
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Vintage Years in Econometrics – The 1970′s

Continuing on from my earlier posts about vintage years for econometrics in the 1930's, 1940's, 1950's, 1960's, here's my tasting guide for the 1970's.Once again, let me note that "in econometrics, what constitutes quality and importance is partly a ma...

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Stan JSS paper out: “Stan: A probabilistic programming language”

January 13, 2017
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Stan JSS paper out:  “Stan: A probabilistic programming language”

As a surprise welcome to 2017, our paper on how the Stan language works along with an overview of how the MCMC and optimization algorithms work hit the stands this week. Bob Carpenter, Andrew Gelman, Matthew D. Hoffman, Daniel Lee, Ben Goodrich, Michael Betancourt, Marcus Brubaker, Jiqiang Guo, Peter Li, and Allen Riddell. 2017. Stan: […] The post Stan JSS paper out: “Stan: A probabilistic programming language” appeared first on…

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New year resolution

January 13, 2017
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New year resolution

Now that the Christmas break is just a distant memory (Marta would say that I am quite happy with that $-$ she thinks I'm like the Grinch around the Christmas holiday. And she is right), I've given way to my new year's resolution of finally, prope...

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Problems with “incremental validity” or more generally in interpreting more than one regression coefficient at a time

January 13, 2017
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Problems with “incremental validity” or more generally in interpreting more than one regression coefficient at a time

Kevin Lewis points us to this interesting paper by Jacob Westfall and Tal Yarkoni entitled, “Statistically Controlling for Confounding Constructs Is Harder than You Think.” Westfall and Yarkoni write: A common goal of statistical analysis in the social sciences is to draw inferences about the relative contributions of different variables to some outcome variable. When […] The post Problems with “incremental validity” or more generally in interpreting more than one…

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