Adiabatic as I wanna be: Or, how is a chess rating like classical economics?

March 24, 2015
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Adiabatic as I wanna be:  Or, how is a chess rating like classical economics?

Chess ratings are all about change. Did your rating go up, did it go down, have you reached 2000, who’s hot, who’s not, and so on. If nobody’s abilities were changing, chess ratings would be boring, they’d be nothing but a noisy measure, and watching your rating change would be as exciting as watching a […] The post Adiabatic as I wanna be: Or, how is a chess rating like…

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ChainLadder 0.2.0 adds Solvency II CDR functions

March 24, 2015
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ChainLadder 0.2.0 adds Solvency II CDR functions

ChainLadder is an R package that provides statistical methods and models for claims reserving in general insurance.With version 0.2.0 we added new functions to estimate the claims development result (CDR) as required under Solvency II. Special thanks t...

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New job opportunities at Monash

March 24, 2015
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New job opportunities at Monash

We are now advertising for various positions in applied statistics, operations research and applied mathematics. Click here for details These jobs are with MAXIMA (the Monash Academy for Cross & Interdisciplinary Mathematical Applications). Please do not send any questions to me (I won’t answer). Click above and fol­low the instructions.

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Factor Evaluation in Quantitative Portfolio Management

March 23, 2015
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Factor Evaluation in Quantitative Portfolio Management

When it comes to managing a portfolio of stocks versus a benchmark the problem is very different from defining an absolute return strategy. In the former one has to hold more stocks than in the later where no stocks at all can be held  if there is not good enough opportunity.  The reason for that is the tracking error. This […]

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One place not to use the Sharpe ratio

March 23, 2015
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One place not to use the Sharpe ratio

Having worked in finance I am a public fan of the Sharpe ratio. I have written about this here and here. One thing I have often forgotten (driving some bad analyses) is: the Sharpe ratio isn’t appropriate for models of repeated events that already have linked mean and variance (such as Poisson or Binomial models) … Continue reading One place not to use the Sharpe ratio → Related posts: A…

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The World Championship of Econometrics!

March 23, 2015
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The World Championship of Econometrics!

Nikki Wesselius, a member of the Organizing Committee for the Econometric Game, 2015, has asked me to provide readers with information about this year's event. I'm delighted to do so,The Econometric Game (AKA "The World Championship of Econometrics") i...

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Round 3 begins! Mark Twain (4) vs. Mary Baker Eddy

March 23, 2015
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Round 3 begins!  Mark Twain (4) vs. Mary Baker Eddy

After yesterday‘s John Waters victory, we’re now in the Round of 16: Thanks again to Paul Davidson for providing the bracket. Remaining are 4 authors, 3 comedians, 3 cult figures, 1 founder of religion, 2 French intellectuals, 2 philosophers, 1 religious leader, and 0 artists. Today’s lucha is a classic grudge match—Twain and Eddy have […] The post Round 3 begins! Mark Twain (4) vs. Mary Baker Eddy appeared first…

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BayesFactor updated to version 0.9.11-1

March 23, 2015
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The BayesFactor package has been updated to version 0.9.11-1. The changes are:  CHANGES IN BayesFactor VERSION 0.9.11-1CHANGES  * Fixed memory bug causing importance sampling to fail.  CHANGES IN BayesFactor VERSION 0.9.11CHANGES  *...

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Paul Meehl continues to be the boss

March 23, 2015
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Lee Sechrest writes: Here is a remarkable paper, not well known, by Paul Meehl. My research group is about to undertake a fresh discussion of it, which we do about every five or ten years. The paper is now more than a quarter of a century old but it is, I think, dramatically pertinent to […] The post Paul Meehl continues to be the boss appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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On deck this week

March 23, 2015
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Mon: Paul Meehl continues to be the boss Tues: Adiabatic as I wanna be: Or, how is a chess rating like classical economics? Wed: Define first, prove later Thurs: Another disgraced primatologist . . . this time featuring “sympathetic dentists” Fri: Imagining p The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Sense and nonsense about Big Data and surveys

March 23, 2015
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The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) has put out its Big Data report last month (link). This one is worth reading. It has some of the most current citations, and readers of this blog will be very receptive to its core messages. The team who wrote the report is a mix of academics and practitioners. *** In Big Data, there are many self-evident truths, according to the people…

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Run Over by a Bus

March 23, 2015
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Run Over by a Bus

Thanks for your concerned emails.  No, I have not been run over by a bus, just crazy busy with no time for new posts in the past few weeks.  We'll see how the next few go.  Meanwhile, here's the latest tennis graphic.  It's now dyna...

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Statistical alchemy and the "test for excess significance"

March 23, 2015
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[This post is based largely on my 2013 article for Journal of Mathematical Psychology; see the other articles in that special issue as well for more critiques.]When I tell people that my primary area of research is statistical methods, one of the reactions I often encounter from people untrained in statistics is that “you can prove anything with statistics.” Of course, this rankles, first because it isn't true (unless you…

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Vectors that have a fractional number of elements

March 23, 2015
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Vectors that have a fractional number of elements

The title of this article makes no sense. How can the number of elements (in fact, the number of anything!) not be a whole number? In fact, it can't. However, the title refers to the fact that you might compute a quantity that ought to be an integer, but is […] The post Vectors that have a fractional number of elements appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Complications

March 23, 2015
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Complications

In watches, a complication is anything that goes beyond the basic function of showing the current time: alarm time, moon phase, etc.  I think the term should be adopted in user interface design and visualization. With their upcoming Watch, Apple is clearly playing to horology and the long history behind the design of classic watches. They … Continue reading Complications

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Judy Garland (4) vs. John Waters (1); Carlin advances

March 22, 2015
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Judy Garland (4) vs. John Waters (1); Carlin advances

Not a lot of action on yesterday‘s post, so I don’t think the winner will advance any farther . . . But, in any case, I’ll call it for Carlin based on Jonathan’s amusing babble of postmodernist commentary. As for today: What can you say? A great pairing to close out the second round of […] The post Judy Garland (4) vs. John Waters (1); Carlin advances appeared first on…

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Translators!

March 22, 2015
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Translators!

Which is the working model helping to get the best results from data? It’s not a specific qualification alone, it’s …Continue reading →

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Why I don’t use the terms “fixed” and “random” (again)

March 22, 2015
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A couple months ago we discussed this question from Sean de Hoon: In many cross-national comparative studies, mixed effects models are being used in which a number of slopes are fixed and the slopes of one or two variables of interested are allowed to vary across countries. The aim is often then to explain the […] The post Why I don’t use the terms “fixed” and “random” (again) appeared first…

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Regression Models, It’s Not Only About Interpretation

March 22, 2015
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Regression Models, It’s Not Only About Interpretation

Yesterday, I did upload a post where I tried to show that “standard” regression models where not performing bad. At least if you include splines (multivariate splines) to take into accound joint effects, and nonlinearities. So far, I do not discuss the possible high number of features (but with boostrap procedures, it is possible to assess something related to variable importance, that people from machine learning like). But my post…

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Launch into space

March 22, 2015
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Launch into space

I saw a link to a list with all rocket launches into space the other day. This post contains some plots concerning day of launch made from that.DataData is a fixed format file with eleven columns. Reading fixed format is not very difficult, however, it...

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June and July workshops in doing Bayesian data analysis

March 22, 2015
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June and July workshops in doing Bayesian data analysis

June and July courses in Bayesian statistics. A full list of workshops in doing Bayesian data analysis is here. Upcoming workshops include these:2015 June 1 - 5. Five-day course: Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, at Stats Camp, Dallas, Texas.2015 June 15-1...

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I’m all about that bootstrap (’bout that bootstrap)

March 21, 2015
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I’m all about that bootstrap (’bout that bootstrap)

As some of my regular readers may know, I'm in the middle of writing a book on introductory data analysis with R. I'm at the point in the writing of the book now where I have to make some hard… Continue reading →

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Principal Component Analysis in 6 steps

March 21, 2015
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Principal Component Analysis in 6 steps

A common-sense explanation of PCA, and how to do it yourself in six steps.

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