Stan Weekly Roundup, 14 July 2017

July 14, 2017
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Another week, another bunch of Stan updates. Kevin Van Horn and Elea McDonnell Feit put together a tutorial on Stan [GitHub link] that covers linear regression, multinomial logistic regression, and hierarchical multinomial logistic regression. Andrew has been working on writing up our “workflow”. That includes Chapter 1, Verse 1 of Bayesian Data Analysis of (1) […] The post Stan Weekly Roundup, 14 July 2017 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Use StatRep for Integrating SAS in Beamer Slides

July 14, 2017
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Use StatRep for Integrating SAS in Beamer Slides

You can install the StatRep package by downloading statrep.zip from support.sas.com/StatRepPackage, which contains: doc/statrepmanual.pdf – The StatRep User’s Guide (this manual) doc/quickstart.tex – A template and tutorial sample LATEX file sas/statrep_macros.sas – The StatRep SAS macros sas/statrep_tagset.sas – The StatRep SAS tagset for LaTeX tabular output statrep.ins – The LATEX package installer file statrep.dtx – […]

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Slaying Song

July 14, 2017
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I came across this article by Joseph Bernstein, “Why Is A Top Harvard Law Professor Sharing Anti-Trump Conspiracy Theories?”: On April 22, Tribe shared a story from a website called the Palmer Report — a site that has been criticized for spreading hyperbole and false claims — entitled “Report: Trump gave $10 million in Russian […] The post Slaying Song appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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My Podcast Podroll

July 14, 2017
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As a self-interested podcaster, I’m obviously interested in getting more people to listen to more podcasts. For those who may be interested in getting into podcasts but wondering where to begin I thought I’d thought I’d make a list of...

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Optimizing for User Experience

July 14, 2017
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I’ve previously written about how business (that are built by humans) can initially become successful by optimizing the user experience. That great user experience is what defines the value that their product provides. However, over time, compani...

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Classical statisticians as Unitarians

July 13, 2017
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Classical statisticians as Unitarians

[cat picture] Christian Robert, Judith Rousseau, and I wrote: Several of the examples in [the book under review] represent solutions to problems that seem to us to be artificial or conventional tasks with no clear analogy to applied work. “They are artificial and are expressed in terms of a survey of 100 individuals expressing support […] The post Classical statisticians as Unitarians appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Crash course in precision and uncertainty, in advance of that climate debate, free for Mr. Pruitt

July 13, 2017
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Scott Pruitt, the EPA chief, continues to make innumerate comments about his personal views on climate change science. His chief accusation - chanted often - is that we need more "precision". In his view, achieving 100% precision is necessary because it removes all uncertainty, allowing lawmakers to take action. This post is inspired by his latest interview in which he is encouraging a TV debate event to air out the…

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July 12 NBER Discussion Slides

July 13, 2017
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Here are my slides from yesterday.

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Mathematics and statistics lessons about elections

July 13, 2017
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Mathematics and statistics lessons about elections

Study elections in mathematics because it is important Too often mathematics is seen as pure and apolitical.  Maths teachers may keep away from concepts that seem messy and without right and wrong answers. However, teachers of mathematics and statistics have … Continue reading →

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3 things that will surprise you about model validation and calibration for state space models

July 13, 2017
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Gurjinder Mohan writes: I was wondering if you had any advice specific to state space models when attempting model validation and calibration. I was planning on conducting a graphical posterior predictive check. I’d also recommend fake-data simulation. Beyond that, I’d need to know more about the example. I’m posting here because this seems like a […] The post 3 things that will surprise you about model validation and calibration for…

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The joy of no more violin plots

July 13, 2017
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The joy of no more violin plots

I dislike violin plots because they look like Christmas ornaments. It’s a pet peeve but there is somewhat of a practical reason as well. To demonstrate I created a dataset called dat that contains an outcome value from 25 different groups. One of th...

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RNG impact on MCMC [or lack thereof]

July 12, 2017
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RNG impact on MCMC [or lack thereof]

Following the talk at MCM 2017 about the strange impact of the random generator on the outcome of an MCMC generator, I tried in Montréal airport the following code on the banana target of Haario et al. (1999), copied from Soetaert and Laine and using the MCMC function of the FME package: library(FME) Banana <- […]

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The Bandwidth for the KPSS Test

July 12, 2017
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The Bandwidth for the KPSS Test

Recently, I received an email from a follower of this blog, who asked:"May I know what is the difference between the bandwidth of Newey-West and Andrews for the KPSS test. It is because when I test the variable with Newey-West, it is I(2), but then I s...

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Better Grouped Summaries in dplyr

July 12, 2017
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For R dplyr users one of the promises of the new rlang/tidyeval system is an improved ability to program over dplyr itself. In particular to add new verbs that encapsulate previously compound steps into better self-documenting atomic steps. Let’s take a look at this capability. First let’s start dplyr. suppressPackageStartupMessages(library("dplyr")) packageVersion("dplyr") ## [1] '0.7.1.9000' A … Continue reading Better Grouped Summaries in dplyr

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Daryl Bem and Arthur Conan Doyle

July 12, 2017
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Daniel Engber wrote an excellent news article on the replication crisis, offering a historically-informed perspective similar to my take in last year’s post, “What has happened down here is the winds have changed.” The only thing I don’t like about Engber’s article is its title, “Daryl Bem Proved ESP Is Real. Which means science is […] The post Daryl Bem and Arthur Conan Doyle appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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The art of arranging bars

July 12, 2017
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The art of arranging bars

Kaiser Fung, founder of Junk Charts and Principal Analytics Prep, shows how to introduce variety into bar charts via colors, sort order and orientation.

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The bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap interval

July 12, 2017
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The bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap interval

I recently showed how to compute a bootstrap percentile confidence interval in SAS. The percentile interval is a simple "first-order" interval that is formed from quantiles of the bootstrap distribution. However, it has two limitations. First, it does not use the estimate for the original data; it is based only [...] The post The bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap interval appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Clinical trials are broken. Here’s why.

July 12, 2017
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Someone emailed me with some thoughts on systemic exertion intolerance disease, in particular, controversies regarding the Pace trial which evaluated psychological interventions for this condition or, should I say, set of conditions. I responded as follows: At one point I had the thought of doing a big investigative project on this, formally interviewing a bunch […] The post Clinical trials are broken. Here’s why. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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IJF Best Paper Award 2017

IJF Best Paper Award 2017

At the recent International Symposium on Forecasting, I announced the awards for the best paper published in the International Journal of Forecasting in the period 2014–2015. We make an award every two years to the best paper(s) published in the ...

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easy riddle

July 11, 2017
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easy riddle

From the current Riddler, a problem that only requires a few lines of code and a few seconds of reasoning. Or not. N households each stole the earnings from one of the (N-1) other households, one at a time. What is the probability that a given household is not burglarised? And what are the expected […]

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Further criticism of social scientists and journalists jumping to conclusions based on mortality trends

July 11, 2017
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Further criticism of social scientists and journalists jumping to conclusions based on mortality trends

[cat picture] So. We’ve been having some discussion regarding reports of the purported increase in mortality rates among middle-aged white people in America. The news media have mostly spun a simple narrative of struggling working-class whites, but there’s more to the story. Some people have pointed me to some contributions from various sources: In “The […] The post Further criticism of social scientists and journalists jumping to conclusions based on…

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You can read two versions of this review essay on systemic exertion intolerance disease (chronic fatigue syndrome)

July 10, 2017
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Julie Rehmeyer wrote a book, “Through the Shadowlands: A Science Writer’s Odyssey into an Illness Science Doesn’t Understand,” and my review appeared in the online New Yorker, much shortened and edited, and given the title, “A memoir of chronic fatigue illustrates the failures of medical research.” My original was titled, “Systemic exertion intolerance disease: The […] The post You can read two versions of this review essay on systemic exertion…

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What is magrittr’s future in the tidyverse?

July 10, 2017
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What is magrittr’s future in the tidyverse?

For many R users the magrittr pipe is a popular way to arrange computation and famously part of the tidyverse. The tidyverse itself is a rapidly evolving centrally controlled package collection. The tidyverse authors publicly appear to be interested in re-basing the tidyverse in terms of their new rlang/tidyeval package. So it is natural to … Continue reading What is magrittr’s future in the tidyverse?

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