coauthorship and citation networks

February 20, 2017
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coauthorship and citation networks

As I discovered (!) the Annals of Applied Statistics in my mailbox just prior to taking the local train to Dauphine for the first time in 2017 (!), I started reading it on the way, but did not get any further than the first discussion paper by Pengsheng Ji and Jiashun Jin on coauthorship and […]

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coauthorship and citation networks

February 20, 2017
By
coauthorship and citation networks

As I discovered (!) the Annals of Applied Statistics in my mailbox just prior to taking the local train to Dauphine for the first time in 2017 (!), I started reading it on the way, but did not get any further than the first discussion paper by Pengsheng Ji and Jiashun Jin on coauthorship and […]

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Should the Problems with Polls Make Us Worry about the Quality of Health Surveys? (my talk at CDC tomorrow)

February 20, 2017
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My talk this Thursday at CDC, Tuesday, February 21, 2017, 12:00 noon, 2400 Century Center, Room 1015C: Should the Problems with Polls Make Us Worry about the Quality of Health Surveys? Response rates in public opinion polls have been steadily declining for more than half a century and are currently heading toward the 0% mark. […] The post Should the Problems with Polls Make Us Worry about the Quality of…

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Blind Spot

February 20, 2017
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Blind Spot

X pointed me to this news article reporting an increase in death rate among young adults in the United States: Selon une enquête publiée le 26 janvier par la revue scientifique The Lancet, le taux de mortalité des jeunes Américains âgés de 25 à 35 ans a connu une progression entre 1999 et 2014, alors […] The post Blind Spot appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Déclarer ou révéler, retour sur les sondages

February 20, 2017
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Déclarer ou révéler, retour sur les sondages

Voilà une semaine, je mettais en ligne un court billet “les sondages et le bruit” sur les sondages, et leur biais, en préparation pour une intervention en milieu de semaine, sur Paris. Mais cette semaine, je voulais continuer à assembler mes notes de lecture… Déclarer ou révéler Bon, on va commencer par enfoncer des portes ouvertes, mais il est toujours bon de relire “l’opinion publique n’existe pas” de Bourdieu. Toute…

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Accessing the contents of a stanfit object

February 20, 2017
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I was just needing this. Then, lo and behold, I found it on the web. It’s credited to Stan Development Team but I assume it was written by Ben and Jonah. Good to have this all in one place. The post Accessing the contents of a stanfit object a...

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The distribution of colors for plain M&M candies

February 20, 2017
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The distribution of colors for plain M&M candies

Many introductory courses in probability and statistics encourage students to collect and analyze real data. A popular experiment in categorical data analysis is to give students a bag of M&M® candies and ask them to estimate the proportion of colors in the population from the sample data. In some classes, [...] The post The distribution of colors for plain M&M candies appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Econometrics: Angrist and Pischke are at it Again

February 20, 2017
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Check out the new Angrist-Pischke (AP), "Undergraduate Econometrics Instruction: Through Our Classes, Darkly". I guess I have no choice but to weigh in. The issues are important, and my earlier AP post, "Mostly Harmless Econometrics?", is my all-time m...

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ComSciCon: Science Communication Workshop for Graduate Students

February 19, 2017
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Nathan Sanders writes: A few years ago, you were kind enough to post a notice on your blog about our science communication conference by grad students, for grad students (ComSciCon). I thought I’d let you know that our program has been going strong and growing, and we’re excited to have opened our application for the […] The post ComSciCon: Science Communication Workshop for Graduate Students appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Interpreting Bayesian posterior distribution of a parameter: Is density meaningful?

February 19, 2017
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Interpreting Bayesian posterior distribution of a parameter: Is density meaningful?

Background: Suppose a researcher is interested in the Bayesian posterior distribution of a parameter, because the parameter is directly meaningful in the research domain. This occurs, for example, in psychometrics. Specifically, in item response theory...

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“Luckily, medicine is a practice that ignores the requirements of science in favor of patient care.”

February 19, 2017
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“Luckily, medicine is a practice that ignores the requirements of science in favor of patient care.”

Javier Benitez writes: This is a paragraph from Kathryn Montgomery’s book, How Doctors Think: If medicine were practiced as if it were a science, even a probabilistic science, my daughter’s breast cancer might never have been diagnosed in time. At 28, she was quite literally off the charts, far too young, an unlikely patient who […] The post “Luckily, medicine is a practice that ignores the requirements of science in…

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Pizzagate and Kahneman, two great flavors etc.

February 18, 2017
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Pizzagate and Kahneman, two great flavors etc.

1. The pizzagate story (of Brian Wansink, the Cornell University business school professor and self-described “world-renowned eating behavior expert for over 25 years”) keeps developing. Last week someone forwarded me an email from the deputy dean of the Cornell business school regarding concerns about some of Wansink’s work. This person asked me to post the […] The post Pizzagate and Kahneman, two great flavors etc. appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Vine regression?

February 17, 2017
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Jeremy Neufeld writes: I’m an undergraduate student at the University of Maryland and I was recently referred to this paper (Vine Regression, by Roger Cooke, Harry Joe, and Bo Chang), also an accompanying summary blog post by the main author) as potentially useful in policy analysis. With the big claims it makes, I am not […] The post Vine regression? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Krzysztof Sakrejda speaks in NYC on Bayesian hierarchical survival-type model for Dengue infection

February 16, 2017
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Daniel writes: Krzysztof Sakrejda is giving a cool talk next Tues 5:30-7pm downtown on a survival model for Dengue infection using Stan. If you’re interested, please register asap. Google is asking for the names for security by tomorrow morning. ...

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Workshop on German national educational panel study

February 16, 2017
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Jutta von Maurice of the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories in Germany writes: In August this year, we plan to hold a user workshop in New York. We have data on educational processes and competence development from early childhood till late adulthood (n=60.000) and these data might be of special interest for international comparisons. Within […] The post Workshop on German national educational panel study appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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A knapsack riddle [#2]?

February 16, 2017
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A knapsack riddle [#2]?

Still about this allocation riddle of the past week, and still with my confusion about the phrasing of the puzzle, when looking at a probabilistic interpretation of the game, rather than for a given adversary’s y, the problem turns out to search for the maximum of where the Y’s are Binomial B(100,p). Given those p’s, […]

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Combining results from multiply imputed datasets

February 16, 2017
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Aaron Haslam writes: I have a question regarding combining the estimates from multiply imputed datasets. In the third addition of BDA on the top of page 452, you mention that with Bayesian analyses all you have to do is mix together the simulations. I want to clarify that this means you simply combine the posteriors […] The post Combining results from multiply imputed datasets appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Equivalence testing (two one-sided test) and NHST compared with HDI and ROPE

February 16, 2017
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Equivalence testing (two one-sided test) and NHST compared with HDI and ROPE

In this blog post I show that frequentist equivalence testing (using the procedure of two one-sided tests: TOST) with null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) can produce conflicting decisions for the same parameter values, that is, TOST can accept ...

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Cry of Alarm

February 16, 2017
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Cry of Alarm

Stan Liebowitz writes: Is it possible to respond to a paper that you are not allowed to discuss? The question above relates to some unusual behavior from a journal editor. As background, I [Liebowitz] have been engaged in a long running dispute regarding the analysis contained in an influential paper published in one of the […] The post Cry of Alarm appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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German Psychological Society fully embraces open data, gives detailed recommendations

February 15, 2017
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tl;dr: The German Psychological Society developed and adopted new recommendations for data sharing that fully embrace openness, transparency and scientific integrity. Key message is that raw data are an essential part of an empirical publication and mu...

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Come To My Talk At UW On Tuesday, February 21

February 15, 2017
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Come To My Talk At UW On Tuesday, February 21

I'm giving a public lecture next Tuesday, February 21, at the University of Washington (UW). This is at the invitation of Professor Karen Cheng at the School of Art + Art History + Design. I will talk about what we know and what we don't know about visualization, and how we can expand our knowledge. The talk I'm preparing is an […]

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How important is gerrymandering? and How to most effectively use one’s political energy?

February 15, 2017
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Andy Stein writes: I think a lot of people (me included) would be interested to read an updated blog post from you on gerrymandering, even if your conclusions haven’t changed at all from your 2009 blog post [see also here]. Lots of people are talking about it now and Obama seems like he’ll be working […] The post How important is gerrymandering? and How to most effectively use one’s political…

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Reading Everything is Obvious by Duncan Watts

February 15, 2017
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Reading Everything is Obvious by Duncan Watts

In his book, Everything is Obvious (Once You Know the Answer): Why Common Sense Fails, Duncan Watts, a professor of sociology at Columbia, imparts urgent lessons that are as relevant to his students as to self-proclaimed data scientists. It takes only nominal effort to generate narrative structures that retrace the past, Watts contends, but developing lasting theory that produces valid predictions requires much more effort than common sense. Watts’s is…

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