Many times on this blog I’ve argued that the difference between pure and applied math is motivation. As my graduate advisor used to say, “Applied mathematics is not a subject classification. It’s an attitude.” Traditionally there was general agreement regarding what is pure math and what is applied. Number theory and topology, for example, are […]

## New golf putting data! And a new golf putting model!

Part 1 Here’s the golf putting data we were using, typed in from Don Berry’s 1996 textbook. The columns are distance in feet from the hole, number of tries, and number of successes: x n y 2 1443 1346 3 694 577 4 455 337 5 353 208 6 272 149 7 256 136 8 […]

## Dutch summer workshops on Bayesian modeling

Just received an email about two Bayesian workshops in Amsterdam this summer: “Theory and Practice of Bayesian Hypothesis Testing, A JASP Workshop” August 22 – August 23, 2019 “Bayesian Modeling for Cognitive Science, A JAGS and WinBUGS Workshop” August 26 – August 30 both taking place at the University of Amsterdam. And focussed on Bayesian […]

## dominating measure

Yet another question on X validated reminded me of a discussion I had once with Jay Kadane when visiting Carnegie Mellon in Pittsburgh. Namely the fundamentally ill-posed nature of conjugate priors. Indeed, when considering the definition of a conjugate family as being a parameterised family Þ of distributions over the parameter space Θ stable under […]

## Chateau du Lucquet

nor

## “Retire Statistical Significance”: The discussion.

So, the paper by Valentin Amrhein, Sander Greenland, and Blake McShane that we discussed a few weeks ago has just appeared online as a comment piece in Nature, along with a letter with hundreds (or is it thousands?) of supporting signatures. Following the first circulation of that article, the authors of that article and some […]

## My two talks in Montreal this Friday, 22 Mar

McGill University Biostatistics seminar, Purvis Hall, 102 Pine Ave. West, Room 25, 1-2pm Fri 22 Mar: Resolving the Replication Crisis Using Multilevel Modeling In recent years we have come to learn that many prominent studies in social science and medicine, conducted at leading research institutions, published in top journals, and publicized in respected news outlets, […]

## BayesComp 20: call for contributed sessions!

Just to remind readers of the incoming deadline for BayesComp sessions: The deadline for providing a title and brief abstract that the session is April 1, 2019. Please provide the names and affiliations of the organizer and the three speakers (the organizer can be one of them). Each session lasts 90 minutes and each talk […]

## He asks me a question, and I reply with a bunch of links

Ed Bein writes: I’m hoping you can clarify a Bayesian “metaphysics” question for me. Let me note I have limited experience with Bayesian statistics. In frequentist statistics, probability has to do with what happens in the long run. For example, a p value is defined in terms of what happens if, from now till eternity, […]

## Maybe it’s time to let the old ways die; or We broke R-hat so now we have to fix it.

“Otto eye-balled the diva lying comatose amongst the reeds, and he suddenly felt the fire of inspiration flood his soul. He ran back to his workshop where he futzed and futzed and futzed.” –Bette Midler Andrew was annoyed. Well, annoyed is probably too strong a word. Maybe a better way to start is with The […]

## Data Science Software Reviews: Forrester vs. Gartner

In my previous post, I discussed Gartner’s reviews of data science software companies. In this post, I show Forrester’s coverage and discuss how radically different it is. As usual, this post is already integrated into my regularly-updated article, The Popularity of Data Science Software. Continue reading →

## adaptive copulas for ABC

A paper on ABC I read on my way back from Cambodia: Yanzhi Chen and Michael Gutmann arXived an ABC [in Edinburgh] paper on learning the target via Gaussian copulas, to be presented at AISTATS this year (in Okinawa!). Linking post-processing (regression) ABC and sequential ABC. The drawback in the regression approach is that the […]

## Riffing on mistakes

I mentioned on Twitter yesterday that one way to relieve the boredom of grading math papers is to explore mistakes. If a statement is wrong, what would it take to make it right? Is it approximately correct? Is there some different context where it is correct? Several people said they’d like to see examples, so […]

## C’est le fin! Riad Sattouf gagne.

Le mec japonais qui gagnait la competition pour manger les saucisses—alors, ça sonne mieux en anglais—M. Kobayashi était un grand « underdog », le cheval sombre de cet « mars fou », mais en fait je dois avancer le dessinateur, grâce à le poème de Dzhaughn: Please don’t ignore this dour crie de couer at […]

## Tidyverse users: gather/spread are on the way out

From https://twitter.com/sharon000/status/1107771331012108288: From https://tidyr.tidyverse.org/dev/articles/pivot.html: There are two important new features inspired by other R packages that have been advancing of reshaping in R: The reshaping operation can be specified with a data frame that describes precisely how metadata stored in column names becomes data variables (and vice versa). This is inspired by the cdata package … Continue reading Tidyverse users: gather/spread are on the way out

## A genius can admit finding things difficult

Karen Uhlenbeck has just received the Abel Prize. Many say that the Fields Medal is the analog of the Nobel Prize for mathematics, but others say that the Abel Prize is a better analog. The Abel prize is a recognition of achievement over a career whereas the Fields Medal is only awarded for work done […]

## When and how do politically extreme candidates get punished at the polls?

In 2016, Tausanovitch and Warshaw performed an analysis “using the largest dataset to date of voting behavior in congressional elections” and found: Ideological positions of congressional candidates have only a small association with citizens’ voting behavior. Instead, citizens cast their votes “as if” based on proximity to parties rather than individual candidates. The modest degree […]

## asymptotics of synthetic likelihood [a reply from the authors]

[Here is a reply from David, Chris, and Robert on my earlier comments, highlighting some points I had missed or misunderstood.] Dear Christian Thanks for your interest in our synthetic likelihood paper and the thoughtful comments you wrote about it on your blog. We’d like to respond to the comments to avoid some misconceptions. Your […]

## Thermocouple polynomials and other sundries

I was looking up something on the NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) web site the other day and ran across thermocouple polynomials. I wondered what that could be, assuming “thermocouple” was a metaphor for some algebraic property. No, it refers to physical thermocouples. The polynomials are functions for computing voltage as a function […]

## It’s the finals! The Japanese dude who won the hot dog eating contest vs. Riad Sattouf

I chose yesterday‘s winner based on this comment from Re’el: Hey, totally not related to this, but could offer any insight into this study: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/well/eat/eggs-cholesterol-heart-health.html It seems like something we go back and forth on and this study didn’t offer any insight. Thanks. Egg = oeuf, so we should choose the man whose name ends […]