## ALUES: Agricultural Land Use Evaluation System, R package

October 26, 2014
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Authors:Arnold R. Salvacion                                     &nb...

## Return of the sunday links! (10/26/14)

October 26, 2014
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New look for the blog and bringing back the links. If you have something that you'd like included in the Sunday links, email me and let me know. If you use the title of the message "Sunday Links" you'll be more likely for me to find it when I search my gmail. Thomas L. does a

## Solution to the sample-allocation problem

October 26, 2014
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See this recent post for background. Here’s the question: You are designing an experiment where you are estimating a linear dose-response pattern with a dose that x can take on the values 1, 2, 3, and the response is continuous. Suppose that there is no systematic error and that the measurement variance is proportional to x. You […] The post Solution to the sample-allocation problem appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

## Tuning Laplaces Demon III

October 26, 2014
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This is the third post with LaplacesDemon tuning. same problem, different algorithms. For introduction and other code see this post. The current post takes algorithms Independence Metropolis to Reflective Slice Sampler.Independence MetropolisIndependen...

## Call for participation: AusDM 2014, Brisbane, 27-28 November

October 25, 2014
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********************************************************* 12th Australasian Data Mining Conference (AusDM 2014) Brisbane, Australia 27-28 November 2014 http://ausdm14.ausdm.org/ ********************************************************* The Australasian Data Mining Conference has established itself as the premier Australasian meeting for both practitioners and researchers in data mining. Since AusDM’02 the conference … Continue reading →

## 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY MEMORY LANE

October 25, 2014
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MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: October 2011 (I mark in red 3 posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog*) (10/3) Part 2 Prionvac: The Will to Understand Power (10/4) Part 3 Prionvac: How the Reformers Should Have done Their Job (10/5) Formaldehyde Hearing: How to Tell the Truth With Statistically Insignificant Results (10/7) Blogging […]

## Solution to the problem on the distribution of p-values

October 25, 2014
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See this recent post for background. Here’s the question: It is sometimes said that the p-value is uniformly distributed if the null hypothesis is true. Give two different reasons why this statement is not in general true. The problem is with real examples, not just toy examples, so your reasons should not involve degenerate situations such as […] The post Solution to the problem on the distribution of p-values appeared first on…

## How well does sample range estimate range?

October 25, 2014
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I’ve been doing some work with Focused Objective lately, and today the following question came up in our discussion. If you’re sampling from a uniform distribution, how many samples do you need before your sample range has an even chance of covering 90% of the population range? This is a variation on a problem I’ve […]

## An interactive visualization to teach about the curse of dimensionality

October 24, 2014
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I recently was contacted for an interview about the curse of dimensionality. During the course of the conversation, I realized how hard it is to explain the curse to a general audience. One of the best descriptions I could come up with was trying to describe sampling from a unit line, square, cube, etc. and

## Solution to the helicopter design problem

October 24, 2014
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See yesterday’s post for background. Here’s the question: In the helicopter activity, pairs of students design paper ”helicopters” and compete to create the copter that takes longest to reach the ground when dropped from a fixed height. The two parameters of the helicopter, a and b, correspond to the length of certain cuts in the […] The post Solution to the helicopter design problem appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## Feller’s shoes and Rasmus’ socks [well, Karl's actually...]

October 23, 2014
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Yesterday, Rasmus Bååth [of puppies' fame!] posted a very nice blog using ABC to derive the posterior distribution of the total number of socks in the laundry when only pulling out orphan socks and no pair at all in the first eleven draws. Maybe not the most pressing issue for Bayesian inference in the era […]

## No, Michael Jordan didn’t say that!

October 23, 2014
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The names are changed, but the song remains the same. First verse. There’s an article by a journalist, The odds, continually updated, by F.D. Flam in the NY Times to which Andrew responded in blog form, No, I didn’t say that, by Andrew Gelman, on this blog. Second verse. There’s an article by a journalist, […] The post No, Michael Jordan didn’t say that! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## Singular Spectrum Analysis in Excel

October 23, 2014
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Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a technique for analysing time series. The method is relatively simple to implement and relies on applying some linear algebra. There is no requirement to do any pre-processing before applying SSA so practical implem...

## Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam

October 23, 2014
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In the in-class applied statistics qualifying exam, students had 4 hours to do 6 problems. Here were the 3 problems I submitted: In the helicopter activity, pairs of students design paper ”helicopters” and compete to create the copter that takes longest to reach the ground when dropped from a fixed height. The two parameters of the […] The post Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam appeared first on Statistical…

## The class pondering Big Data

October 23, 2014
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Note: I'm traveling a lot lately and it is affecting my ability to post on a regular basis. It's three weeks into my chart-building workshop (link) at NYU and we are starting to discuss individual projects. One of the major...

## Tests basés sur la vraisemblance – score

October 23, 2014
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$\widehat\theta_n$

Une autre grandeur intéressant est le score, qui est la dérivée de la vraisemblance. Intuitivement (c’est l’idée de la condition du premier ordre),   et  seront proches si les dérivées en ces points sont proches. En  la dérivée est nulle, donc on va se demander ici, tout simplement, si la dérivée en  est proche de 0. Ou pas. On appele ce test le test du score, ou encore le test du multiplicateur de Lagrange. Ou…

## Tests basés sur la vraisemblance – Rapport de Vraisemblance

October 23, 2014
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$\widehat\theta_n$

Chose promise, chose due. J’avais dit qu’on parlerait du test de rapport de vraisemblance. L’idée – visuelle – est d’avoir une lecture dans l’autre sens : au lieu de se demander si  et  sont proches, on va se demander si   et  sont proches. Si la fonction de vraisemblance est suffisamment régulière, on se pose la même question. Lorsque j’avais présenté le test, en cours, hier matin, j’avais proposé d’utiliser la delta-method pour…

## Why is my OS X Yosemite install taking so long?: an analysis

October 23, 2014
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Why? Since the latest Mac OS X update, 10.10 "Yosemite", was released last Thursday, there have been complaints springing up online of the progress bar woefully underestimating the actual time to complete installation. More specifically, it appeared as if, for a certain group of people (myself included), the installer would stall out at "two minutes »more

## September 2014: Blog Contents

October 23, 2014
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September 2014: Error Statistics Philosophy Blog Table of Contents  Compiled by Jean A. Miller (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard) (9/27) Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post) (9/23) G.A. Barnard: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood (9/21) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a […]

## Stan 2.5, now with MATLAB, Julia, and ODEs

October 22, 2014
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As usual, you can find everything on the Stan Home Page. Drop us a line on the stan-users group if you have problems with installs or questions about Stan or coding particular models. New Interfaces We’d like to welcome two new interfaces: MatlabStan by Brian Lau, and  Stan.jl (for Julia) by Rob Goedman. The new […] The post Stan 2.5, now with MATLAB, Julia, and ODEs appeared first on Statistical…

## Kathryn Chaloner 1954-2014

October 22, 2014
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Prescript: Memory is fickle. It's been a while since these events, a while since I took her regression course and a while since I've read her papers. One thing I've found is that memories of the contents of particular papers evolves with time, and memo...

## Vote on simply statistics new logo design

October 22, 2014
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As you can tell, we have given the Simply Stats blog a little style update. It should be more readable on phones or tablets now. We are also about to get a new logo. We are down to the last couple of choices and can't decide. Since we are statisticians, we thought we'd collect some

## Sailing between the Scylla of hyping of sexy research and the Charybdis of reflexive skepticism

October 22, 2014
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Recently I had a disagreement with Larry Bartels which I think is worth sharing with you. Larry and I took opposite positions on the hot topic of science criticism. To put things in a positive way, Larry was writing about some interesting recent research which I then constructively criticized. To be more negative, Larry was […] The post Sailing between the Scylla of hyping of sexy research and the Charybdis…