Chess records page

September 24, 2017
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Chess records page (no, not on the first page, or the second page, or the third page, of a google search of *chess records*. There’s lots of good stuff here, enough to fill much of a book if you so desire. As we’ve discussed, chess games are in the public domain so if you take […] The post Chess records page appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

Upcoming data preparation and modeling article series

September 23, 2017
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I am pleased to announce that vtreat version 0.6.0 is now available to R users on CRAN. vtreat is an excellent way to prepare data for machine learning, statistical inference, and predictive analytic projects. If you are an R user we strongly suggest you incorporate vtreat into your projects. vtreat handles, in a statistically sound … Continue reading Upcoming data…

Getting the right uncertainties when fitting multilevel models

September 23, 2017
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Cesare Aloisi writes: I am writing you regarding something I recently stumbled upon in your book Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models which confused me, in hopes you could help me understand it. This book has been my reference guide for many years now, and I am extremely grateful for everything I learnt from […] The post Getting the…

Stan Weekly Roundup, 22 September 2017

September 22, 2017
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This week (and a bit from last week) in Stan: Paul-Christian Bürkner‘s paper on brms (a higher-level interface to RStan, which preceded rstanarm and is still widely used and recommended by our own devs) was just published as a JStatSoft article. If you follow the link, the abstract explains what brms does. Ben Goodrich and […] The post Stan Weekly…

Misclassification in Binary Choice Models

September 22, 2017
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Several years ago I wrote a number of posts about Logit and Probit models, and the Linear Probability Model LPM). One of those posts (also, see here) dealt with the problems that arise if you mis-classify the dependent variable in such models...

Air rage update

September 22, 2017
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So. Marcus Crede, Carol Nickerson, and I published a letter in PPNAS criticizing the notorious “air rage” article. (Due to space limitations, our letter contained only a small subset of the many possible criticisms of that paper.) Our letter was called “Questionable association between front boarding and air rage.” The authors of the original paper, […] The post Air rage…

September 22, 2017
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There are substantial differences between ad-hoc analyses (be they: machine learning research, data science contests, or other demonstrations) and production worthy systems. Roughly: ad-hoc analyses have to be correct only at the moment they are run (and often once they are correct, that is the last time they are run; obviously the idea of reproducible … Continue reading My advice…

National Bank of Poland

September 22, 2017
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It strikes me that I'm seeing progressively more research in dynamic predictive modeling from the National Bank of Poland.  A few recent examples appear below.  Related information is here.  Nice job.AuthorTitleKarol SzafranekBagged...

Will Stanton hit 61 home runs this season?

September 21, 2017
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$Will Stanton hit 61 home runs this season?$

[edit: Juho Kokkala corrected my homework. Thanks! I updated the post. Also see some further elaboration in my reply to Andrew’s comment. As Andrew likes to say …] So far, Giancarlo Stanton has hit 56 home runs in 555 at bats over 149 games. Miami has 10 games left to play. What’s the chance he’ll […] The post Will Stanton…

“What we know and don’t know about the 2016 election—and beyond” (event at Columbia poli sci dept next Monday midday)

September 21, 2017
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On Monday 25 Sep, 12:10-1:45pm, in the Playroom (707 International Affairs Bldg): “What we know and don’t know about the 2016 election—and beyond” (discussion led by Bob Shapiro, Bob Erikson, me, and other Columbia political sci...

Vis Potpourri, September 2017

September 21, 2017
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A potpourri is a collection of spices and plants that create a pleasant aroma together. This new series assembles a list of links to recently interesting things in visualization, from both information visualization (InfoVis, which I normally cover on this site) and scientific visualization (SciVis) – the latter covered by new blog collaborator and medical […]

It’s not enough to be a good person and to be conscientious. You also need good measurement. Cargo-cult science done very conscientiously doesn’t become good science, it just falls apart from its own contradictions.

September 21, 2017
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Kevin Lewis points us to a biology/psychology paper that was a mix of reasonable null claims (on the order of, the data don’t give us enough information to say anything about XYZ) and some highly questionable noise mining supported by p-values and forking paths. The whole thing is just so sad. The researchers are aware […] The post It’s not…

ggformula: another option for teaching graphics in R to beginners

September 21, 2017
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A previous entry (http://sas-and-r.blogspot.com/2017/07/options-for-teaching-r-to-beginners.html) describes an approach to teaching graphics in R that also “get[s] students doing powerful things quickly”, as David Robinson suggested. In t...

Easy-to-understand Statistics for the Public

September 21, 2017
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In a recently published EUROSTAT publication, the authors demand innovative forms of communication from public statistics in order not to lose their socially important role. Among other things, they demand ‘…. to tell stories close to the people; to create communities around specific themes; to develop among citizens the ability to read the data and … Continue reading Easy-to-understand Statistics…

Monte Carlo Simulations & the "SimDesign" Package in R

September 20, 2017
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Past posts on this blog have included several relating to Monte Carlo simulation - e.g., see here, here, and here.Recently I came across a great article by Matthew Sigal and Philip Chalmers in the Journal of Statistics Education. It's titled, "Play it ...

Call for papers: Probabilistic Programming Languages, Semantics, and Systems (PPS 2018)

September 20, 2017
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I’m on the program committee and they say they’re looking to broaden their horizons this year to include systems like Stan. The workshop is part of POPL, the big programming language theory conference. Here’s the official link PPS 2018 home page Call for extended abstracts (2 pages) The submissions are two-page extended abstracts and the […] The post Call for…

Using black-box machine learning predictions as inputs to a Bayesian analysis

September 20, 2017
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Following up on this discussion [Designing an animal-like brain: black-box “deep learning algorithms” to solve problems, with an (approximately) Bayesian “consciousness” or “executive functioning organ” that attempts to make sense of all these inferences], Mike Betancourt writes: I’m not sure AI (or machine learning) + Bayesian wrapper would address the points raised in the paper. […] The post Using black-box…

Quantifying privacy loss in a statistical database

September 20, 2017
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In the previous post we looked at a simple randomization procedure to obscure individual responses to yes/no questions in a way that retains the statistical usefulness of the data. In this post we’ll generalize that procedure, quantify the privacy loss, and discuss the utility/privacy trade-off. More general randomized response Suppose we have a binary response […]

Fisher’s transformation of the correlation coefficient

September 20, 2017
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Pearson's correlation measures the linear association between two variables. Because the correlation is bounded between [-1, 1], the sampling distribution for highly correlated variables is highly skewed. Even for bivariate normal data, the skewness makes it challenging to estimate confidence intervals for the correlation, to run one-sample hypothesis tests ("Is [...] The post Fisher's transformation of the correlation coefficient appeared…

Recording Podcasts with a Remote Co-Host

September 20, 2017
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I previously wrote about my editing workflow for podcasts and I thought I’d follow up with some details on how I record both Not So Standard Deviations and The Effort Report. This post is again going to be a bit Mac-specific because, well, that...

p less than 0.00000000000000000000000000000000 . . . now that’s what I call evidence!

September 19, 2017
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I read more carefully the news article linked to in the previous post, which describes a forking-pathed nightmare of a psychology study, the sort of thing that was routine practice back in 2010 or so but which we’ve mostly learned to at least try to avoid. Anyway, one thing I learned there’s something called “terror […] The post p less…

Stan Course in Newcastle, United Kingdom!

September 19, 2017
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(this post is by Betancourt) The growth of Stan has afforded the core team many opportunities to give courses, to both industrial and academic audiences and at venues  across the world.  Regrettably we’re not always able to keep up with demand for new courses, especially outside of the United States, due to our already busy schedules. […] The post Stan Course…

As if the 2010s never happened

September 19, 2017
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E. J. writes: I’m sure I’m not the first to send you this beauty. Actually, E. J., you’re the only one who sent me this! It’s a news article, “Can the fear of death instantly make you a better athlete?”, reporting on a psychology experiment: For the first study, 31 male undergraduates who liked basketball […] The post As if…