...in event time. It's true, yesterday No Hesitations passed 1,000,000 page views. Totally humbling. I am grateful for your interest and support.

Valentin Amrhein, Fränzi Korner-Nievergelt, and Tobias Roth write: The widespread use of ‘statistical significance’ as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process. We review why degrading p-values into ‘significant’ and ‘nonsignificant’ contributes to making studies irreproducible, or to making them seem irreproducible. A major […] The post “The earth…

Chris Famighetti points us to this page which links to an interactive visualization. There are some problems with the mapping software—when I clicked through, it showed a little map of the western part of the U.S., accompanied by huge swathes of Canada and the Pacific Ocean—and I haven’t taken a look at the methodology. But […] The post Blue Cross…

Here’s the wiki, and here’s the background: Our statistical models are imperfect compared to the true data generating process and our complete state of knowledge (from an informational-Bayesian perspective) or the set of problems over which we wish to average our inferences (from a population-Bayesian or frequentist perspective). The practical question here is what model […] The post Prior choice…

The Riddler of today has a secretary problem, where one measures sequentially N random variables until one deems the current variable to be the largest of the whole sample. The classical secretary problem has a counter-intuitive solution where one first measures N/e random variables without taking any decision and then and only then picks the […]

The New York Times did it after the election, in January 2017: You Draw It, Learning Statistics by drawing and comparing charts. ‘Draw your guesses on the charts below to see if you’re as smart as you think you are.’ And Bayerischer Rundfunk did it before the election, in April 2017. This kind of giving information is an excellent … Continue reading Learning by…

Interesting discussion from Kaiser Fung. I don’t have anything to add here; it’s just a good statistics topic. Scroll through Kaiser’s blog for more: Dispute over analysis of school quality and home prices shows social science is har...

Christian Bartels send along this paper, which he described as an attempt to use informative priors for frequentist test statistics. I replied: I’ve not tried to follow the details but this reminds me of our paper on posterior predictive checks. People think of this as very Bayesian but my original idea when doing this research […] The post Using prior…

R doesn’t allow block comments. You have to comment out each line, or you can encapsulate the block in if(0){} which is the world’s biggest hack. Grrrrr. P.S. Just to clarify: I want block commenting not because I want to add long explanatory blocks of text to annotate my scripts. I want block commenting because […] The post I hate…

There has been a barrage of negative publicity related to Uber recently. The latest salvo is a long article in the New York Times (link). This piece focuses on Uber's CEO, who was trained as a computer engineer, but my interest lies primarily in several revelations about how Uber collects and uses customer data. The key episode picked up by…

Most SAS regression procedures support a CLASS statement which internally generates dummy variables for categorical variables. I have previously described what dummy variables are and how are they used. I have also written about how to create design matrices that contain dummy variables in SAS, and in particular how to [...] The post Visualize a design matrix appeared first on…

Someone who prefers to remain anonymous asks for my thoughts on this post by Michael Corrigan and Robert Whitaker, “Lancet Psychiatry Needs to Retract the ADHD-Enigma Study: Authors’ conclusion that individuals with ADHD have smaller brains is belied by their own data,” which begins: Lancet Psychiatry, a UK-based medical journal, recently published a study titled […] The post The next…

This Friday afternoon I (Jonah) will be speaking about Stan at Washington University in St. Louis. The talk is open to the public, so anyone in the St. Louis area who is interested in Stan is welcome to attend. Here are the details: Title: Stan: A Software Ecosystem for Modern Bayesian Inference Jonah Sol Gabry, […] The post Stan in…

This recent comment thread reminds me of a question that comes up from time to time, which is how to teach Bayesian statistics to students who aren’t comfortable with calculus. For continuous models, probabilities are integrals. And in just about every example except the one at 47:16 of this video, there are multiple parameters, so […] The post Stan without…

Most of my friends with families fret over school quality when deciding where to buy their homes. It's well known that good school districts are also associated with expensive houses. A feedback cycle is at work here: home prices surge where there are good schools; only richer people can afford to buy such homes; wealth brings other advantages, and so…