The Other Side of the Night

May 24, 2017
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The Other Side of the Night

Don Green points us to this quantitative/qualitative meta-analysis he did with Betsy Levy Paluck and Seth Green. The paper begins: This paper evaluates the state of contact hypothesis research from a policy perspective. Building on Pettigrew and Tropp’s (2006) influential meta-analysis, we assemble all intergroup contact studies that feature random assignment and delayed outcome measures, […] The post The Other Side of the Night appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Take two on Laura Arnold’s TEDx talk.

May 24, 2017
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This post is by Keith. In this post I try to be more concise and direct about what I found of value in Laura Arnold’s TEDx talk that I recently blogged about here. Primarily it was the disclosure from someone who could afford to buy good evidence (and experts to assess it) that they did not think good […] The post Take two…

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PCI Statistics: A preprint review peer community in statistics

May 24, 2017
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PCI Statistics:  A preprint review peer community in statistics

X informs me of a new effort, “Peer community in . . .”, which describes itself as “a free recommendation process of published and unpublished scientific papers.” So far this exists in only one field, Evolutionary Biology. But this looks like a great idea and I expect it will soon exist in statistics, political science, […] The post PCI Statistics:…

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Shocker: ease of use requires expanding, not restricting, choices

May 24, 2017
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Shocker: ease of use requires expanding, not restricting, choices

Recently, I noted how we have to learn to hate defaults in data visualization software. I was reminded again of this point when reviewing this submission from long-time reader & contributor Chris P. The chart is included in this Medium...

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Sample quantiles: A comparison of 9 definitions

May 24, 2017
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Sample quantiles: A comparison of 9 definitions

According to Hyndman and Fan ("Sample Quantiles in Statistical Packages," TAS, 1996), there are nine definitions of sample quantiles that commonly appear in statistical software packages. Hyndman and Fan identify three definitions that are based on rounding and six methods that are based on linear interpolation. This blog post shows [...] The post Sample quantiles: A comparison of 9 definitions…

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This company wants to hire people who can program in R or Python and do statistical modeling in Stan

May 24, 2017
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Doug Puett writes: I am a 2012 QMSS [Columbia University Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences] grad who is currently trying to build a Data Science/Quantitative UX team, and was hoping for some advice. I am finding myself having a hard time finding people who are really interested in understanding people and who especially are excited […] The post This company…

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Toward tidy analysis

May 24, 2017
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Toward tidy analysis

Tidy data at its heart is a set of three rules for organizing a data set: Each variable forms a column. Each observation forms a row. Each type of observational unit forms a table. This is an incredibly useful abstraction for thinking about organizin...

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Interruption in Service

May 23, 2017
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My blog was down for almost a couple of weeks due to some changes with how google handles account payments and blogger in particular. Sorry about that.

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Staying on Top of the Literature

May 23, 2017
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Staying on Top of the Literature

Recently, 'Michael' placed the following comment on one of my posts:"Thanks for sharing this interesting list of articles! I'm wondering, how do you go about finding these types of articles to read? Are you a subscriber to these publications/do you reg...

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How is a politician different from a 4-year-old?

May 23, 2017
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How is a politician different from a 4-year-old?

A few days ago I shared my reactions to an op-ed by developmental psychologist Alison Gopnik. Gopnik replied: As a regular reader of your blog, I thought you and your readers might be interested in a response to your very fair comments. In the original draft I had an extra few paragraphs (below) that speak […] The post How is…

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ISI Karl Pearson Prize for 2017

ISI Karl Pearson Prize for 2017

Recently I was privileged to sit on the committee that selects the winner of the Karl Pearson Prize. KP was, of course, an early mathematical statistician, famous for many commonly-used statistical methods and tools including histograms, the correlatio...

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Quick update

May 22, 2017
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Quick update

This is going to be a very short post. I've been again following the latest polls and have updated my election forecast model $-$ nothing has changed in the general structure, only new data coming as the campaigns evolve.The dynamic forecast (which con...

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Design top down, Code bottom up

May 22, 2017
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Top-down design means designing from the client application programmer interface (API) down to the code. The API lays out a precise functional specification, which says what the code will do, not how it will do it. Coding bottom up means coding the lowest-level foundations first, testing them, then continuing to build. Sometimes this requires dropping […] The post Design top…

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Big Data in Econometric Modeling

May 22, 2017
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Big Data in Econometric Modeling

Here's a speakers' photo from last week's Penn conference, Big Data in Dynamic Predictive Econometric Modeling.  Click through to find the program, copies of papers and slides, a participant list, and a few more photos.  A good and productive...

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How to think scientifically about scientists’ proposals for fixing science

May 22, 2017
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I wrote this article for a sociology journal: Science is in crisis. Any doubt about this status has surely been been dispelled by the loud assurances to the contrary by various authority figures who are deeply invested in the current system and have written things such as, “Psychology is not in crisis, contrary to popular […] The post How to…

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Quantile definitions in SAS

May 22, 2017
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Quantile definitions in SAS

In last week's article about the Flint water crisis, I computed the 90th percentile of a small data set. Although I didn't mention it, the value that I reported is different from the the 90th percentile that is reported in Significance magazine. That is not unusual. The data only had [...] The post Quantile definitions in SAS appeared first on…

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Finally, Four Backticks on Github

Finally, Four Backticks on Github

It is always the little things… Over the years, I have been totally happy with almost everything about Github, but I have also been waiting for one little thing: I wish we could enclose text that contains N backticks with a pair of N + 1 backticks in Github issues/comments, i.e., ```` ```{r, echo=TRUE} 1 + 1 ``` ```` so…

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An obvious fact about constrained systems.

May 21, 2017
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An obvious fact about constrained systems.

  This post is not by Andrew. This post is by Phil. This post is prompted by Andrew’s recent post about the book “Everything is obvious once you know the answer,” together with a recent discussion I’ve been involved in. I’m going to say something obvious. True story: earlier this year I was walking around […] The post An obvious…

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Some natural solutions to the p-value communication problem—and why they won’t work.

May 21, 2017
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Some natural solutions to the p-value communication problem—and why they won’t work.

John Carlin and I write: It is well known that even experienced scientists routinely misinterpret p-values in all sorts of ways, including confusion of statistical and practical significance, treating non-rejection as acceptance of the null hypothesis, and interpreting the p-value as some sort of replication probability or as the posterior probability that the null hypothesis […] The post Some natural…

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#NotAll4YearOlds

May 21, 2017
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I think there’s something wrong this op-ed by developmental psychologist Alison Gopnik, “4-year-olds don’t act like Trump,” and which begins, The analogy is pervasive among his critics: Donald Trump is like a child. . . . But the analogy is profoundly wrong, and it’s unfair to children. The scientific developmental research of the past 30 […] The post #NotAll4YearOlds appeared…

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New series: R and big data (concentrating on Spark and sparklyr)

May 20, 2017
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New series: R and big data (concentrating on Spark and sparklyr)

Win-Vector LLC has recently been teaching how to use R with big data through Spark and sparklyr. We have also been helping clients become productive on R/Spark infrastructure through direct consulting and bespoke training. I thought this would be a good time to talk about the power of working with big-data using R, share some … Continue reading New series:…

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Hotel room aliases of the statisticians

May 20, 2017
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Hotel room aliases of the statisticians

Barry Petchesky writes: Below you’ll find a room list found before Game 1 at the Four Seasons in Houston (right across from the arena), where the Thunder were staying for their first-round series against the Rockets. We didn’t run it then because we didn’t want Rockets fans pulling the fire alarm or making late-night calls […] The post Hotel room…

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The EViews Blog on ARDL – Part 3

May 20, 2017
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The EViews Blog on ARDL  – Part 3

As I mentioned in this recent post, the EViews team had a third blog post on ARDL modelling up their sleeves. The said post appeared a few days ago, here.It's a real gem! The flow-chart and the detailed application are fabulous - I wish I could have co...

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