“Menstrual Cycle Phase Does Not Predict Political Conservatism”

July 5, 2015
By
“Menstrual Cycle Phase Does Not Predict Political Conservatism”

Someone pointed me to this article by Isabel Scott and Nicholas Pound: Recent authors have reported a relationship between women’s fertility status, as indexed by menstrual cycle phase, and conservatism in moral, social and political values. We conducted a survey to test for the existence of a relationship between menstrual cycle day and conservatism. 2213 […] The post “Menstrual Cycle Phase Does Not Predict Political Conservatism” appeared first on Statistical…

Read more »

Being a Millionaire Isn’t What it Used to be

July 5, 2015
By

One evening a few weeks ago, some friends and I wound up talking about the U.S. "roaring twenties," and all the "millionaires" created, and wondering just what $1 million 1925 dollars would be in 2015 dollars. Obviously the price level has multiplied g...

Read more »

More on causes of death in Netherlands over the years

July 5, 2015
By
More on causes of death in Netherlands over the years

Last week I had a post 'Deaths in the Netherlands by cause and age'. During creation of that post I made one plot which I had not shown. It shows something odd. There is a vertical striping. Hence mortality varies by year across age.To examine this phe...

Read more »

The Greek thing II

July 4, 2015
By
The Greek thing II

Just few hours before Greeks head to the polls to decide on the bailout agreement, and ultimately, whether the country will stay in the euro, there is no overwhelming advantage of either side. Actually, the margin became blurred over the last three days, with the "Yes" position rehearsing a last-minute recovery. Despite this last-minute trend, … Read More →

Read more »

The Greek thing

July 4, 2015
By
The Greek thing

Greeks have been quite volatile on their opinion whether they should accept or not a proposal by the country's creditors for more austerity to keep aid flowing. The polls conducted over this week look like crazy, though that "belly" was likely provoked by the anxiety on what comes next after Greece not paying IMF back. … Read More →

Read more »

Is data privacy a fundamental right?

July 4, 2015
By

This piece is part of the StatBusters column written jointly with Andrew Gelman. Hope they fix the labeling soon. In it, we talk about two recent studies on data privacy, which leads to contradictory conclusions. How should the media report such surveys? Is the brand name of the organization enough? In addition, we debunk the notion that consumers will definitely…

Read more »

July 4th

July 4, 2015
By

Lucky to have been born an American. The post July 4th appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Read more »

The Nature of Heterogeneity in Coevolving Networks of Customers and Products

July 3, 2015
By
The Nature of Heterogeneity in Coevolving Networks of Customers and Products

The genre shirt asks, "What kind of music do u listen 2?"Microgenres exist because markets are fragmenting and marketers need names to attract emerging customer segments with increasingly specific preferences. The cost of producing and delivery music n...

Read more »

The Cui-bono Approach to Open Data

July 3, 2015
By
The Cui-bono Approach to Open Data

What’s the problem? Which data are needed to solve it? Who gets an advantage of it? These few questions are …Continue reading →

Read more »

The Massive Future of Statistics Education

July 3, 2015
By

NOTE: This post was written as a chapter for the not-yet-released Handbook on Statistics Education.  Data are eating the world, but our collective ability to analyze data is going on a starvation diet. Everywhere you turn, data are being generated somehow. By the time you read this piece, you’ll probably have collected some data. (For

Read more »

“Why should anyone believe that? Why does it make sense to model a series of astronomical events as though they were spins of a roulette wheel in Vegas?”

July 3, 2015
By

Deborah Mayo points us to a post by Stephen Senn discussing various aspects of induction and statistics, including the famous example of estimating the probability the sun will rise tomorrow. Senn correctly slams a journalistic account of the math problem: The canonical example is to imagine that a precocious newborn observes his first sunset, and […] The post “Why should…

Read more »

Visualizing survey results excellently

July 3, 2015
By
Visualizing survey results excellently

Surveys generate a lot of data. And, if you have used a survey vendor, you know they generate a ton of charts. I was in Germany to attend the Data Meets Viz workshop organized by Antony Unwin. Paul and Sascha...

Read more »

Larry Laudan: “When the ‘Not-Guilty’ Falsely Pass for Innocent”, the Frequency of False Acquittals (guest post)

July 3, 2015
By
Larry Laudan: “When the ‘Not-Guilty’ Falsely Pass for Innocent”, the Frequency of False Acquittals (guest post)

Professor Larry Laudan Lecturer in Law and Philosophy University of Texas at Austin “When the ‘Not-Guilty’ Falsely Pass for Innocent” by Larry Laudan While it is a belief deeply ingrained in the legal community (and among the public) that false negatives are much more common than false positives (a 10:1 ratio being the preferred guess), […]

Read more »

An Update on Boosting with Splines

July 2, 2015
By
An Update on Boosting with Splines

In my previous post, An Attempt to Understand Boosting Algorithm(s), I was puzzled by the boosting convergence when I was using some spline functions (more specifically linear by parts and continuous regression functions). I was using > library(splines) > fit=lm(y~bs(x,degree=1,df=3),data=df) The problem with that spline function is that knots seem to be fixed. The iterative boosting algorithm is start with some…

Read more »

Looks like this R thing might be for real

July 2, 2015
By

Not sure how I missed this, but the Linux Foundation just announced the R Consortium for supporting the "world’s most popular language for analytics and data science and support the rapid growth of the R user community". From the Linux Foundation: The R language is used by statisticians, analysts and data scientists to unlock value

Read more »

Humility needed in decision-making

July 2, 2015
By

Brian MacGillivray and Nick Pidgeon write: Daniel Gilbert maintains that people generally make bad decisions on risk issues, and suggests that communication strategies and education programmes would help (Nature 474, 275–277; 2011). This version of the deficit model pervades policy-making and branches of the social sciences. In this model, conflicts between expert and public perceptions […] The post Humility needed…

Read more »

R brut

July 2, 2015
By
R brut

Filed under: Kids, pictures, R, Statistics, University life Tagged: cex, pch, plot, R

Read more »

How To Be A Kick-A## Teacher

July 2, 2015
By

25 helpful pieces of advice. Comportment: Walk like you're walking away from an explosion in a Hollywood movie. Tuck your chin in, tilt your head down and look at people from out of the top of your eyes. Squint. Lecturing: Show up late, then run ove...

Read more »

Recently in the sister blog

July 1, 2015
By
Recently in the sister blog

When is the death penalty okay? A court with no Protestants How much does advertising matter in presidential elections? Bartenders are Democrats, beer wholesalers are Republicans The ambiguity of racial categories No, public opinion is not driven by ‘unreasoning bias and emotion’ Political science: Who is it for? Modern campaigning has big effects on voter […] The post Recently in…

Read more »

Variable Selection using Cross-Validation (and Other Techniques)

July 1, 2015
By
Variable Selection using Cross-Validation (and Other Techniques)

A natural technique to select variables in the context of generalized linear models is to use a stepŵise procedure. It is natural, but contreversial, as discussed by Frank Harrell  in a great post, clearly worth reading. Frank mentioned about 10 points against a stepwise procedure. It yields R-squared values that are badly biased to be high. The F and chi-squared tests quoted next…

Read more »

How Airbnb built a data science team

July 1, 2015
By

From Venturebeat: Back then we knew so little about the business that any insight was groundbreaking; data infrastructure was fast, stable, and real-time (I was querying our production MySQL database); the company was so small that everyone was in the loop about every decision; and the data team (me) was aligned around a singular set

Read more »

Merge observed outcomes into a list of all outcomes

July 1, 2015
By
Merge observed outcomes into a list of all outcomes

When you count the outcomes of an experiment, you do not always observe all of the possible outcomes. For example, if you roll a six-sided die 10 times, it might be that the "1" face does not appear in those 10 rolls. Obviously, this situation occurs more frequently with small […] The post Merge observed outcomes into a list of…

Read more »

July Reading

July 1, 2015
By
July Reading

Now that the (Northern) summer is here, you should have plenty of time for reading. Here are some recommendations:Ahelegbey, D. F., 2015. The econometrics of networks: A review. Working Paper 13/WP/2015, Department of Economics, University of Venice.Ca...

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe