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## “Retire Statistical Significance”: The discussion.

So, the paper by Valentin Amrhein, Sander Greenland, and Blake McShane that we discussed a few weeks ago has just appeared online as a comment piece in Nature, along with a letter with hundreds (or is it thousands?) of supporting signatures. Following the first circulation of that article, the authors of that article and some […]

## My two talks in Montreal this Friday, 22 Mar

McGill University Biostatistics seminar, Purvis Hall, 102 Pine Ave. West, Room 25, 1-2pm Fri 22 Mar: Resolving the Replication Crisis Using Multilevel Modeling In recent years we have come to learn that many prominent studies in social science and medicine, conducted at leading research institutions, published in top journals, and publicized in respected news outlets, […]

## BayesComp 20: call for contributed sessions!

Just to remind readers of the incoming deadline for BayesComp sessions: The deadline for providing a title and brief abstract that the session is April 1, 2019. Please provide the names and affiliations of the organizer and the three speakers (the organizer can be one of them). Each session lasts 90 minutes and each talk […]

## He asks me a question, and I reply with a bunch of links

Ed Bein writes: I’m hoping you can clarify a Bayesian “metaphysics” question for me. Let me note I have limited experience with Bayesian statistics. In frequentist statistics, probability has to do with what happens in the long run. For example, a p value is defined in terms of what happens if, from now till eternity, […]

## Maybe it’s time to let the old ways die; or We broke R-hat so now we have to fix it.

“Otto eye-balled the diva lying comatose amongst the reeds, and he suddenly felt the fire of inspiration flood his soul. He ran back to his workshop where he futzed and futzed and futzed.” –Bette Midler Andrew was annoyed. Well, annoyed is probably too strong a word. Maybe a better way to start is with The […]

## Data Science Software Reviews: Forrester vs. Gartner

In my previous post, I discussed Gartner’s reviews of data science software companies. In this post, I show Forrester’s coverage and discuss how radically different it is. As usual, this post is already integrated into my regularly-updated article, The Popularity of Data Science Software. Continue reading →

## adaptive copulas for ABC

A paper on ABC I read on my way back from Cambodia: Yanzhi Chen and Michael Gutmann arXived an ABC [in Edinburgh] paper on learning the target via Gaussian copulas, to be presented at AISTATS this year (in Okinawa!). Linking post-processing (regression) ABC and sequential ABC. The drawback in the regression approach is that the […]

## Riffing on mistakes

I mentioned on Twitter yesterday that one way to relieve the boredom of grading math papers is to explore mistakes. If a statement is wrong, what would it take to make it right? Is it approximately correct? Is there some different context where it is correct? Several people said they’d like to see examples, so […]

## C’est le fin! Riad Sattouf gagne.

Le mec japonais qui gagnait la competition pour manger les saucisses—alors, ça sonne mieux en anglais—M. Kobayashi était un grand « underdog », le cheval sombre de cet « mars fou », mais en fait je dois avancer le dessinateur, grâce à le poème de Dzhaughn: Please don’t ignore this dour crie de couer at […]

## Tidyverse users: gather/spread are on the way out

From https://twitter.com/sharon000/status/1107771331012108288: From https://tidyr.tidyverse.org/dev/articles/pivot.html: There are two important new features inspired by other R packages that have been advancing of reshaping in R: The reshaping operation can be specified with a data frame that describes precisely how metadata stored in column names becomes data variables (and vice versa). This is inspired by the cdata package … Continue reading Tidyverse users: gather/spread are on the way out

## A genius can admit finding things difficult

Karen Uhlenbeck has just received the Abel Prize. Many say that the Fields Medal is the analog of the Nobel Prize for mathematics, but others say that the Abel Prize is a better analog. The Abel prize is a recognition of achievement over a career whereas the Fields Medal is only awarded for work done […]

## When and how do politically extreme candidates get punished at the polls?

In 2016, Tausanovitch and Warshaw performed an analysis “using the largest dataset to date of voting behavior in congressional elections” and found: Ideological positions of congressional candidates have only a small association with citizens’ voting behavior. Instead, citizens cast their votes “as if” based on proximity to parties rather than individual candidates. The modest degree […]

## asymptotics of synthetic likelihood [a reply from the authors]

[Here is a reply from David, Chris, and Robert on my earlier comments, highlighting some points I had missed or misunderstood.] Dear Christian Thanks for your interest in our synthetic likelihood paper and the thoughtful comments you wrote about it on your blog. We’d like to respond to the comments to avoid some misconceptions. Your […]

## Thermocouple polynomials and other sundries

I was looking up something on the NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) web site the other day and ran across thermocouple polynomials. I wondered what that could be, assuming “thermocouple” was a metaphor for some algebraic property. No, it refers to physical thermocouples. The polynomials are functions for computing voltage as a function […]

## It’s the finals! The Japanese dude who won the hot dog eating contest vs. Riad Sattouf

I chose yesterday‘s winner based on this comment from Re’el: Hey, totally not related to this, but could offer any insight into this study: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/well/eat/eggs-cholesterol-heart-health.html It seems like something we go back and forth on and this study didn’t offer any insight. Thanks. Egg = oeuf, so we should choose the man whose name ends […]

## Quantifying R Package Dependency Risk

We recently commented on excess package dependencies as representing risk in the R package ecosystem. The question remains: how much risk? Is low dependency a mere talisman, or is there evidence it is a good practices (or at least correlates with other good pracices)? Well, it turns out we can quantify it: each additional non-core … Continue reading Quantifying R Package Dependency Risk

## Are male doctors better for male heart attack patients and female doctors better for female heart attack patients?

Brad Greenwood, Seth Carnahan, and Laura Huang write: A large body of medical research suggests that women are less likely than men to survive traumatic health episodes like acute myocardial infarctions. In this work, we posit that these difficulties may be partially explained, or exacerbated, by the gender match between the patient and the physician. […]

## Digital signatures with oil and vinegar

“Unbalanced oil and vinegar” is a colorful name for a cryptographic signature method. This post will give a high-level description of the method and explain where the name comes from. The RSA encryption algorithm depends on the fact that computers can easily multiply enormous numbers, but they cannot efficiently factor the product of two enormous […]

## absint[he] post-doc on approximate Bayesian inference in Paris, Montpellier and Oxford

As a consequence of its funding by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) in 2018, the ABSint research conglomerate is now actively recruiting a post-doctoral collaborator for up to 24 months. The accronym ABSint stands for Approximate Bayesian solutions for inference on large datasets and complex models. The ABSint conglomerate involves researchers located in […]