One Millionth Birthday…

April 30, 2017
By
One Millionth Birthday…

 ...in event time.  It's true, yesterday No Hesitations passed 1,000,000 page views.  Totally humbling.  I am grateful for your interest and support.

Read more »

“The earth is flat (p > 0.05): Significance thresholds and the crisis of unreplicable research”

April 30, 2017
By
“The earth is flat (p > 0.05): Significance thresholds and the crisis of unreplicable research”

Valentin Amrhein​, Fränzi Korner-Nievergelt, and Tobias Roth write: The widespread use of ‘statistical significance’ as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process. We review why degrading p-values into ‘significant’ and ‘nonsignificant’ contributes to making studies irreproducible, or to making them seem irreproducible. A major […] The post “The earth…

Read more »

Converting to blogdown

April 30, 2017
By
Converting to blogdown

This website has gone through several major updates over the years. It began in 1993 as some handcrafted html files, transitioned to Joomla and later to Wordpress. Then it slowly grew into a collection of ten connected Wordpress installations that beca...

Read more »

Blue Cross Blue Shield Health Index

April 29, 2017
By

Chris Famighetti points us to this page which links to an interactive visualization. There are some problems with the mapping software—when I clicked through, it showed a little map of the western part of the U.S., accompanied by huge swathes of Canada and the Pacific Ocean—and I haven’t taken a look at the methodology. But […] The post Blue Cross…

Read more »

Predictive Modeling and Causal Estimation

April 29, 2017
By
Predictive Modeling and Causal Estimation

Here are the slides, "Econometrics, Predictive Modeling, and Causal Estimation", from my talk at the recent conference at the IMF in honor of Kajal Lahiri's 70th (group photo above). They build on an earlier No Hesitations post.

Read more »

Prior choice recommendations wiki !

April 28, 2017
By

Here’s the wiki, and here’s the background: Our statistical models are imperfect compared to the true data generating process and our complete state of knowledge (from an informational-Bayesian perspective) or the set of problems over which we wish to average our inferences (from a population-Bayesian or frequentist perspective). The practical question here is what model […] The post Prior choice…

Read more »

Face value

April 28, 2017
By
Face value

I found a little more time to think about the election model and fiddle with the set up, as well as use some more recent polls $-$ I have now managed to get 9 polls detailing voting intention for the 7 main parties competing in England, Scotland a...

Read more »

a secretary problem with maximum ability

April 27, 2017
By
a secretary problem with maximum ability

The Riddler of today has a secretary problem, where one measures sequentially N random variables until one deems the current variable to be the largest of the whole sample. The classical secretary problem has a counter-intuitive solution where one first measures N/e random variables without taking any decision and then and only then picks the […]

Read more »

A whole fleet of Wansinks: is “evidence-based design” a pseudoscience that’s supporting a trillion-dollar industry?

April 27, 2017
By
A whole fleet of Wansinks:  is “evidence-based design” a pseudoscience that’s supporting a trillion-dollar industry?

Following a recent post that mentioned The post A whole fleet of Wansinks: is “evidence-based design” a pseudoscience that’s supporting a trillion-dollar industry? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Read more »

Learning by Doing

April 27, 2017
By
Learning by Doing

The New York Times did it after the election, in January 2017: You Draw It, Learning Statistics by drawing and comparing charts. ‘Draw your guesses on the charts below to see if you’re as smart as you think you are.’   And Bayerischer Rundfunk did it before the election, in April 2017. This kind of giving information is an excellent … Continue reading Learning by…

Read more »

“Data sleaze: Uber and beyond”

April 26, 2017
By

Interesting discussion from Kaiser Fung. I don’t have anything to add here; it’s just a good statistics topic. Scroll through Kaiser’s blog for more: Dispute over analysis of school quality and home prices shows social science is har...

Read more »

Using prior knowledge in frequentist tests

April 26, 2017
By

Christian Bartels send along this paper, which he described as an attempt to use informative priors for frequentist test statistics. I replied: I’ve not tried to follow the details but this reminds me of our paper on posterior predictive checks. People think of this as very Bayesian but my original idea when doing this research […] The post Using prior…

Read more »

I hate R, volume 38942

April 26, 2017
By
I hate R, volume 38942

R doesn’t allow block comments. You have to comment out each line, or you can encapsulate the block in if(0){} which is the world’s biggest hack. Grrrrr. P.S. Just to clarify: I want block commenting not because I want to add long explanatory blocks of text to annotate my scripts. I want block commenting because […] The post I hate…

Read more »

Data sleaze: Uber and beyond

April 26, 2017
By

There has been a barrage of negative publicity related to Uber recently. The latest salvo is a long article in the New York Times (link). This piece focuses on Uber's CEO, who was trained as a computer engineer, but my interest lies primarily in several revelations about how Uber collects and uses customer data. The key episode picked up by…

Read more »

Visualize a design matrix

April 26, 2017
By
Visualize a design matrix

Most SAS regression procedures support a CLASS statement which internally generates dummy variables for categorical variables. I have previously described what dummy variables are and how are they used. I have also written about how to create design matrices that contain dummy variables in SAS, and in particular how to [...] The post Visualize a design matrix appeared first on…

Read more »

Snap

April 25, 2017
By
Snap

In the grand tradition of all recent election times, I've decided to have a go and try and build a model that could predict the results of the upcoming snap general election in the UK. I'm sure there will be many more people having a go at this, from v...

Read more »

The next Lancet retraction? [“Subcortical brain volume differences in participants with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children and adults”]

April 25, 2017
By
The next Lancet retraction?  [“Subcortical brain volume differences in participants with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children and adults”]

Someone who prefers to remain anonymous asks for my thoughts on this post by Michael Corrigan and Robert Whitaker, “Lancet Psychiatry Needs to Retract the ADHD-Enigma Study: Authors’ conclusion that individuals with ADHD have smaller brains is belied by their own data,” which begins: Lancet Psychiatry, a UK-based medical journal, recently published a study titled […] The post The next…

Read more »

Reorientation in the French election

April 25, 2017
By
Reorientation in the French election

Financial Times has this chart up about the voters for the National Front, which is Marie Le Pen's party. I find the chart very hard to decipher, even though I usually like the dot plot format. The first thing to...

Read more »

Grouped functional time series forecasting: an application to age-specific mortality rates

April 25, 2017
By
Grouped functional time series forecasting: an application to age-specific mortality rates

Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnicity. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in developing social policy. Howeve...

Read more »

Stan in St. Louis this Friday

April 24, 2017
By
Stan in St. Louis this Friday

This Friday afternoon I (Jonah) will be speaking about Stan at Washington University in St. Louis. The talk is open to the public, so anyone in the St. Louis area who is interested in Stan is welcome to attend. Here are the details: Title: Stan: A Software Ecosystem for Modern Bayesian Inference Jonah Sol Gabry, […] The post Stan in…

Read more »

Stan without frontiers, Bayes without tears

April 24, 2017
By
Stan without frontiers, Bayes without tears

This recent comment thread reminds me of a question that comes up from time to time, which is how to teach Bayesian statistics to students who aren’t comfortable with calculus. For continuous models, probabilities are integrals. And in just about every example except the one at 47:16 of this video, there are multiple parameters, so […] The post Stan without…

Read more »

Sorting out what’s meaningful and what’s not

April 24, 2017
By
Sorting out what’s meaningful and what’s not

A few weeks ago, the New York Times Upshot team published a set of charts exploring the relationship between school quality, home prices and commute times in different regions of the country. The following is the chart for the New...

Read more »

Dispute over analysis of school quality and home prices shows social science is hard

April 24, 2017
By
Dispute over analysis of school quality and home prices shows social science is hard

Most of my friends with families fret over school quality when deciding where to buy their homes. It's well known that good school districts are also associated with expensive houses. A feedback cycle is at work here: home prices surge where there are good schools; only richer people can afford to buy such homes; wealth brings other advantages, and so…

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe