A Bayesian take on ballot order effects

Dale Lehman sends along a paper, “The ballot order effect is huge: Evidence from Texas,” by Darren Grant, which begins: Texas primary and runoff elections provide an ideal test of the ballot order hypothesis, because ballot order is randomized within each county and there are many counties and contests to analyze. Doing so for all […]

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SIST* Posts: Excerpts & Mementos (to Nov 17, 2018)

SIST* BLOG POSTS (up to Nov 17, 2018) Excerpts 05/19: The Meaning of My Title: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars 09/08: Excursion 1 Tour I: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement (1.1) 09/11: Excursion 1 Tour I (2nd stop): Probabilism, Performance, and Probativeness (1.2) 09/15: Excursion 1 Tour I (3rd stop): […]

“The hype economy”

Palko writes: I have no idea whether it is real or apocryphal, but there’s an often referred to study with primates where the they earned tokens that could be exchanged for food. According to the standard version, the subjects soon came to value those tokens more than the treats they could be exchanged for. The […]

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Tom Wolfe

I’m a big Tom Wolfe fan. My favorites are The Painted Word and From Bauhaus to Our House, and I have no patience for the boosters (oh, sorry, “experts”) of modern art of the all-black-painting variety or modern architecture of the can’t-find-the-front-door variety who can’t handle Wolfe’s criticism. I also enjoyed Bonfire of the Vanities, […]

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Graphs and tables, tables and graphs

Jesse Wolfhagen writes: I was surprised to see a reference to you in a Quartz opinion piece entitled “Stop making charts when a table is better”. While the piece itself makes that case that there are many kinds of charts that are simply restatements of tabular data, I was surprised that you came up as […]

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Mementos for Excursion 2 Tour II: Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction (2.3-2.7)

Excursion 2 Tour II: Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction* Outline of Tour. Tour II visits Popper, falsification, corroboration, Duhem’s problem (what to blame in the case of anomalies) and the demarcation of science and pseudoscience (2.3). While Popper comes up short on each, the reader is led to improve on Popper’s notions (live exhibit (v)). Central ingredients […]