Jeff Lax writes: I’m probably not the only one telling you about this Science story, but just in case. The link points to a new research article reporting a failed replication of a study from 2008. The journal that published that now-questionable result refuses to consider publishing the replication attempt. My reply: I agree it’s […]

## Feller-Tornier constant

Here’s kind of an unusual question: What is the density of integers that have an even number of prime factors with an exponent greater than 1? To define the density, you take the proportion up to an integer N then take the limit as N goes to infinity. It’s not obvious that the limit should […]

## likelihood-free approximate Gibbs sampling

“Low-dimensional regression-based models are constructed for each of these conditional distributions using synthetic (simulated) parameter value and summary statistic pairs, which then permit approximate Gibbs update steps (…) synthetic datasets are not generated during each sampler iteration, thereby providing efficiencies for expensive simulator models, and only require sufficient synthetic datasets to adequately construct the full […]

## Cohen’s D for Experimental Planning

In this note, we discuss the use of Cohen’s D for planning difference-of-mean experiments. Estimating sample size Let’s imagine you are testing a new weight loss program and comparing it so some existing weight loss regimen. You want to run an experiment to determine if the new program is more effective than the old one. … Continue reading Cohen’s D for Experimental Planning

## New Versions of R GUIs: BlueSky, JASP, jamovi

It has been only two months since I summarized my reviews of point-and-click front ends for R, and it’s already out of date! I have converted that post into a regularly-updated article and added a plot of total features, which … Continue reading →

## Translating Robert Burns

Last year Adam Roberts had some fun with Finnegans Wake [1], seeing how little he could edit it and turn it into something that sounded like Return of the Jedi. I wrote a blog post where I quantified the difference between the original and the parody using Levenshtein distance, basically how many edits it takes […]

## Causal inference: I recommend the classical approach in which an observational study is understood in reference to a hypothetical controlled experiment

Amy Cohen asked me what I thought of this article, “Control of Confounding and Reporting of Results in Causal Inference Studies: Guidance for Authors from Editors of Respiratory, Sleep, and Critical Care Journals,” by David Lederer et al. I replied that I liked some of their recommendations (downplaying p-values, graphing raw data, presenting results clearly) […]

## talk at CISEA 2019

Here are my slides for the overview talk I am giving at CISEA 2019, in Abidjan, highly resemblant with earlier talks, except for the second slide!

## Le Monde puzzle [#1104]

A palindromic Le Monde mathematical puzzle: In a monetary system where all palindromic amounts between 1 and 10⁸ have a coin, find the numbers less than 10³ that cannot be paid with less than three coins. Find if 20,191,104 can be paid with two coins. Similarly, find if 11,042,019 can be paid with two or […]

## green sunset [jatp]

## “The 2019 ASA Guide to P-values and Statistical Significance: Don’t Say What You Don’t Mean” (Some Recommendations)

Some have asked me why I haven’t blogged on the recent follow-up to the ASA Statement on P-Values and Statistical Significance (Wasserstein and Lazar 2016)–hereafter, ASA I. They’re referring to the editorial by Wasserstein, R., Schirm, A. and Lazar, N. (2019) –hereafter, ASA II–opening a special on-line issue of over 40 contributions responding to the […]

## The publication asymmetry: What happens if the New England Journal of Medicine publishes something that you think is wrong?

After reading my news article on the replication crisis, retired cardiac surgeon Gerald Weinstein wrote: I have long been disappointed by the quality of research articles written by people and published by editors who should know better. Previously, I had published two articles on experimental design written with your colleague Bruce Levin [of the Columbia […]

## Protecting privacy while keeping detailed date information

A common attempt to protect privacy is to truncate dates to just the year. For example, the Safe Harbor provision of the HIPAA Privacy Rule says to remove “all elements of dates (except year) for dates that are directly related to an individual …” This restriction exists because dates of service can be used to […]

## available to discuss your article?

[The ultimate fishing email, not even pretending the “editor” has been reading my article!] Dear Christian P. Robert, I recently came across the article you wrote a while ago entitled “[Title]” and wanted to get in touch with you to discuss the idea of writing a similar article for the Internal Medicine Review (IMRJ). I […]

## Minimal Key Set is NP hard

It usually gives us a chuckle when we find some natural and seemingly easy data science question is NP-hard. For instance we have written that variable pruning is NP-hard when one insists on finding a minimal sized set of variables. In this note we show that finding a minimal set of columns that form a … Continue reading Minimal Key Set is NP hard

## We’re done with our Applied Regression final exam (and solution to question 15)

We’re done with our exam. And the solution to question 15: 15. Consider the following procedure. • Set n = 100 and draw n continuous values x_i uniformly distributed between 0 and 10. Then simulate data from the model y_i = a + bx_i + error_i, for i = 1,…,n, with a = 2, b […]

## off to Abidjan, with a few Annals [62kg of ’em]

## Algorithmic bias and social bias

The “algorithmic bias” that concerns me is not so much a bias in an algorithm, so much as a social bias resulting from the demand for, and expectation of, certainty.

## unknown pleasures [40 years ago]

## Pharmacometrics meeting in Paris on the afternoon of 11 July 2019

Julie Bertrand writes: The pharmacometrics group led by France Mentre (IAME, INSERM, Univ Paris) is very pleased to host a free ISoP Statistics and Pharmacometrics (SxP) SIG local event at Faculté Bichat, 16 rue Henri Huchard, 75018 Paris, on Thursday afternoon the 11th of July 2019. It will features talks from Professor Andrew Gelman, Univ […]