(from Yair): What Happened in the 2018 Election

Yair writes: Immediately following the 2018 election, we published an analysis of demographic voting patterns, showing our best estimates of what happened in the election and putting it into context compared to 2016 and 2014. . . . Since then, we’ve collected much more data — precinct results from more states and, importantly, individual-level vote history records […]

ABC in Grenoble, 19-20 March 2020

The next occurrence of the “ABC in…” workshops will take place in Grenoble, France, on 19-20 March 2020. Both local organising and international scientific committees have been constituted and the program should soon be constructed, along with calls to contributions launched at the same time. As in most earlier versions of the workshops (ABC in […]

Neural nets vs. regression models

Eliot Johnson writes: I have a question concerning papers comparing two broad domains of modeling: neural nets and statistical models. Both terms are catch-alls, within each of which there are, quite obviously, multiple subdomains. For instance, NNs could include ML, DL, AI, and so on. While statistical models should include panel data, time series, hierarchical […]

Free Video Lecture: Vectors for Programmers and Data Scientists

We have just released two new free video lectures on vectors from a programmer’s point of view. I am experimenting with what ideas do programmers find interesting about vectors, what concepts do they consider safe starting points, and how to condense and present the material. Please check the lectures out. Vectors for Programmers and Data … Continue reading Free Video Lecture: Vectors for Programmers and Data Scientists

Cosmic rays flipping bits

A cosmic ray striking computer memory at just the right time can flip a bit, turning a 0 into a 1 or vice versa. While I knew that cosmic ray bit flips were a theoretical possibility, I didn’t know until recently that there had been documented instances on the ground. Radiolab did an episode on […]

biased sample!

A chance occurrence led me to this thread on R-devel about R sample function generating a bias by taking the integer part of the continuous uniform generator… And then to the note by Kellie Ottoboni and Philip Stark analysing the reason, namely the fact that R uniform [0,1) pseudo-random generator is not perfectly continuously uniform […]

Strong primes

There are a couple different definitions of a strong prime. In number theory, a strong prime is one that is closer to the next prime than to the previous prime. For example, 11 is a strong prime because it is closer to 13 than to 7. In cryptography, a strong primes are roughly speaking primes […]

Alternatives and reality

I saw this cartoon from Randall Munroe, and it reminded me of something I wrote awhile ago. The quick story is that I don’t think the alternative histories within alternative histories are completely arbitrary. It seems to me that there’s a common theme in the best alternative history stories, a recognition that our world is […]

My talks at the University of Chicago this Thursday and Friday

Political Economy Workshop (12:30pm, Thurs 23 May 2019, Room 1022 of Harris Public Policy (Keller Center) 1307 E 60th Street): Political Science and the Replication Crisis We’ve heard a lot about the replication crisis in science (silly studies about ESP, evolutionary psychology, miraculous life hacks, etc.), how it happened (p-values, forking paths), and proposed remedies […]

Garrigue administrative

A central page in Le Monde of this week (May 08), about the conundrum of dealing with the dozens of thousands of handwritten pages left by Alexandre Grothendiek, from trying to make sense of the contents to assessing the monetary value (!) of such documents. Mentioning that the most reasonable solution would be to extend […]

Vigorous data-handling tied to publication in top journals among public heath researchers

Gur Huberman points us to this news article by Nicholas Bakalar, “Vigorous Exercise Tied to Macular Degeneration in Men,” which begins: A new study suggests that vigorous physical activity may increase the risk for vision loss, a finding that has surprised and puzzled researchers. Using questionnaires, Korean researchers evaluated physical activity among 211,960 men and […]

Unifiers and Diversifiers

I saw a couple tweets this morning quoting Freeman Dyson’s book Infinite in All Directions. Unifiers are people whose driving passion is to find general principles which will explain everything. They are happy if they can leave the universe looking a little simpler than they found it. Diversifiers are people whose passion is to explore […]

Gene Wolf (1931-2019)

Just found out that the writer Gene Wolf, author of the unique New Sun series (and many other masterpieces) had passed away two weeks ago. (The Guardian has a detailed obituary covering his life and oeuvres. Where I learned that he developed the Pringle’s machine for Procter and Gamble, something he can be pardoned for […]