Is the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex “selective for pain”?

January 21, 2017
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Is the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex “selective for pain”?

Peter Clayson writes: I have spent much of the last 6 months or so of my life trying to learn Bayesian statistics on my own. It’s been a difficult, yet rewarding experience. I have a question about a research debate that is going on my field. Briefly, the debate between some very prominent scholars in […] The post Is the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex “selective for pain”? appeared first on…

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Stan Conference Live Stream

January 21, 2017
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StanCon 2017 is tomorrow! Late registration ends in an hour. After that, all tickets are $400. We’re going to be live streaming the conference. You’ll find the stream as a YouTube Live event from 8:45 am to 6 pm ET (and whatever gets up will be recorded by default). We’re streaming it ourselves, so if there are […] The post Stan Conference…

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Looking for rigor in all the wrong places

January 21, 2017
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Looking for rigor in all the wrong places

My talk in the upcoming conference on Inference from Non Probability Samples, 16-17 Mar in Paris: Looking for rigor in all the wrong places What do the following ideas and practices have in common: unbiased estimation, statistical significance, insistence on random sampling, and avoidance of prior information? All have been embraced as ways of enforcing […] The post Looking for…

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Alternatives to jail for scientific fraud

January 20, 2017
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Alternatives to jail for scientific fraud

Mark Tuttle pointed me to this article by Amy Ellis Nutt, who writes: Since 2000, the number of U.S. academic fraud cases in science has risen dramatically. Five years ago, the journal Nature tallied the number of retractions in the previous decade and revealed they had shot up 10-fold. About half of the retractions were […] The post Alternatives to…

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Knoxville, TN: R for Text Analysis Workshop

January 20, 2017
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Knoxville, TN: R for Text Analysis Workshop

The Knoxville R Users Group is presenting a workshop on text analysis using R by Bob Muenchen. The workshop is free and open to the public. You can join the group at https://www.meetup.com/Knoxville-R-Users-Group. A description of the workshop follows. R for … Continue reading →

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an express riddle

January 19, 2017
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an express riddle

A quick puzzle on The Riddler this week that enjoys a quick solution once one writes it out. The core of the puzzle is about finding the average number of draws one need to empty a population of size T if each draw is uniform over the remaining number of individuals between one and the […]

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“Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically.”

January 19, 2017
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“Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically.”

Last year there was much discussion here and elsewhere about a paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton, who noticed that death rates for non-Hispanic white Americans aged 45-54 had been roughly flat since 1999, even while the death rates for this age category had been declining steadily in other countries and among nonwhite Americans. […] The post “Estimating trends…

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Counting is hard, especially when you don’t have theories

January 19, 2017
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Counting is hard, especially when you don’t have theories

Exploring the data about movies, uncovering data issues

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weakly informative reparameterisations for location-scale mixtures

January 18, 2017
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weakly informative reparameterisations for location-scale mixtures

We have been working towards a revision of our reparameterisation paper for quite a while now and too advantage of Kate Lee visiting Paris this fortnight to make a final round: we have now arXived (and submitted) the new version. The major change against the earlier version is the extension of the approach to a […]

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Come and work with us!

January 18, 2017
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Stan is an open-source, state-of-the-art probabilistic programming language with a high-performance Bayesian inference engine written in C++. Stan had been successfully applied to modeling problems with hundreds of thousands of parameters in fields as diverse as econometrics, sports analytics, physics, pharmacometrics, recommender systems, political science, and many more. Research using Stan has been featured in […] The post Come and…

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Quantitative Macroeconomic Modeling with Structural Vector Autoregressions

January 18, 2017
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Quantitative Macroeconomic Modeling with Structural Vector Autoregressions

A terrific new book titled, Quantitative Macroeconomic Modeling with Structural Vector Autoregressions – An EViews Implementation, is now available for free downloading from the EViews site. The book is written by Sam Ouliaris, Adrian Pagan, and...

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Good models + Bad data = Bad analysis

January 18, 2017
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Good models + Bad data = Bad analysis

Example showing how to diagnose bad data in data science models

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Solve mixed integer linear programming problems in SAS

January 18, 2017
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Solve mixed integer linear programming problems in SAS

This article shows how to solve mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problems in SAS. In a mixed integer problem, some of the variables in the problem are integer-valued whereas others are continuous. The objective function is a linear function of the variables and the variables can be subject to linear […] The post Solve mixed integer linear programming problems in…

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ISOTYPE Book: Mackenzie, The Vital Flame

January 18, 2017
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ISOTYPE Book: Mackenzie, The Vital Flame

The first book in the new series on ISOTYPE books is The Vital Flame by Compton Mackenzie, published by The British Gas Council in 1947. It contains 42 color photographs and five ISOTYPE charts, with a nice variety of different topics and styles. A Bit of Context My copy of the book came with a […]

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30 tickets left to StanCon 2017! New sponsor!

January 17, 2017
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30 tickets left to StanCon 2017! New sponsor!

Stan Conference 2017 is on Saturday. We just sold our 150th ticket! Capacity is 180. It’s going to be an amazing event. Register here (while tickets are still available): https://stancon2017.eventbrite.com Our Q&A Panel will have some members of the Stan Development Team: Andrew Gelman. Stan super user. Bob Carpenter. Stan language, math library. Michael Betancourt. […] The post 30 tickets…

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30 tickets left to StanCon 2017! New sponsor!

January 17, 2017
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30 tickets left to StanCon 2017! New sponsor!

Stan Conference 2017 is on Saturday. We just sold our 150th ticket! Capacity is 180. It’s going to be an amazing event. Register here (while tickets are still available): https://stancon2017.eventbrite.com Our Q&A Panel will have some members of the Stan Development Team: Andrew Gelman. Stan super user. Bob Carpenter. Stan language. Michael Betancourt. Stan algorithms, […] The post 30 tickets…

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R from Excel

January 17, 2017
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When I first started getting into data analysis and statistics I didn’t really have a clue with what i was doing, but as then as now the default tool was Excel, must have been Excel 97. Now the spreadsheet model for data analysis isn’t the ...

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Two meanings of priors, part II: Quantifying uncertainty about model parameters

January 17, 2017
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by Angelika Stefan & Felix Schönbrodt This is the second part of “Two meanings of priors”. The first part explained a first meaning – “priors as subjective probabilities of models”. While the first meaning of priors r...

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Royal Economic Society Webcasts on Econometrics

January 17, 2017
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Royal Economic Society Webcasts on Econometrics

The Royal Economic Society has recently released videos of interviews with three leading econometricans, recorded during the Society's 2016 Meeting. These are: Econometric Methods: An interview with Bruce HansenAn interview with Andrew ChesherUsin...

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This headline writer has the secret to everlasting life

January 17, 2017
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This headline writer has the secret to everlasting life

I'm busy preparing a long post that will show up later. In the meantime, I saw this on GrubStreet: Read the sub-header. Wouldn't it be nice to have only 87 percent chance of dying?

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“If the horse race polls were all wrong about Trump, why should his approval rating polls be any better?”

January 17, 2017
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A journalist forwarded the above question to me and asked what I thought. My reply is that the horse race polls were not all wrong about Trump. The polls had him at approx 48% of the two-party vote and he received 49%. The polls were wrong by a few percentage points in some key swing […] The post “If the…

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Laurie Davies: time series decomposition of birthday data

January 17, 2017
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On the cover of BDA3 is a Bayesian decomposition of the time series of birthdays in the U.S. over a 20-year period. We modeled the data as a sum of Gaussian processes and fit it using GPstuff. Occasionally we fit this model to new data; see for example this discussion of Friday the 13th and […] The post Laurie Davies:…

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Stan is hiring! hiring! hiring! hiring!

January 17, 2017
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[insert picture of adorable cat entwined with Stan logo] We’re hiring postdocs to do Bayesian inference. We’re hiring programmers for Stan. We’re hiring a project manager. How many people we hire depends on what gets funded. But we’re hiring a few people for sure. We want the best best people who love to collaborate, who […] The post Stan is…

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