May 26, 2015
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Another trip in the métro today (to work with Pierre Jacob and Lawrence Murray in a Paris Anticafé!, as the University was closed) led me to infer—warning!, this is not the exact distribution!—the distribution of x, namely since a path x of length l(x) will corresponds to N draws if N-l(x) is an even integer […]

## Respecting Real-World Decision Making and Rejecting Models That Do Not: No MaxDiff or Best-Worst Scaling

May 26, 2015
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Utility has been reified, and we have committed the fallacy of misplaced concreteness.As this link illustrates, Sawtooth's MaxDiff provides an instructive example of reification in marketing research. What is the contribution of "clean bathrooms" ...

## Call for papers: Bayesian statistics, at Zeitschrift für Psychologie

May 26, 2015
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I am guest editing a special topical issue of Zeitschrift für Psychologie on Bayesian statistics. The complete call, with details, can be found here: [pdf]. Briefly:As Bayesian statistics become part of standard analysis in psychology, the Zeitschrift...

## Stock, flow, and two smoking regressions

May 26, 2015
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In a comment on our recent discussion of stock and flow, Tom Fiddaman writes: Here’s an egregious example of statistical stock-flow confusion that got published. Fiddaman is pointing to a post of his from 2011 discussing a paper that “examines the relationship between CO2 concentration and flooding in the US, and finds no significant impact.” […] The post Stock, flow,…

## Some statistics about nutrition statistics

May 26, 2015
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I only read nutrition studies in the service of this blog but otherwise, I don't trust them or care. Nevertheless, the health beat of most media outlets is obsessed with printing the latest research on coffee or eggs or fats or alcohol or what have you. Now, the estimable John Ioannidis has published an editorial in BMJ titled "Implausible Results…

## New GDP Series From BEA

May 26, 2015
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BEA's "new product" (see below) -- a GDP estimate that's a simple average of expenditure- and income-side GDP estimates -- is not at the cutting-edge in producing improved  historical GDP estimates by blending the expenditure- and income...

## What is the best way to suppress ODS output in SAS?

May 26, 2015
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SAS procedures can produce a lot of output, but you don't always want to see it all. In simulation and bootstrap studies, you might analyze 10,000 samples or resamples. Usually you are not interested in seeing the results of each analysis displayed on your computer screen. Instead, you want to […] The post What is the best way to suppress…

## Communicating Risk at the Bay Area R User Group

May 26, 2015
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I will be speaking at the Bay Area User Group meeting tonight about Communicating Risk. Anthony Goldbloom from Kaggle and Karim Chine from ElasticR will be there as well. The meeting will be at Microsoft in Mountain View.Later this week I will give a s...

## Paper: An Evaluation of the Impact of Visual Embellishments in Bar Charts

May 26, 2015
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Information graphics often use variations and embellishments of standard charts that may distort the way people read the data. But how bad are these distortions really? In a paper to be presented at EuroVis this week, Drew Skau, Lane Harrison, and I tested their effects in an experiment. Based on a survey of common infographics … Continue reading Paper: An…

## R and Data Mining workshop at Deakin University

May 25, 2015
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I will run a workshop on R and Data Mining for students in the Master of Business Analytics course at Deakin University in Melbourne on Thursday 28 May. The workshop will cover: – Introduction to Data Mining with R and … Continue reading →

## An inundation of significance tests

May 25, 2015
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Jan Vanhove writes: The last three research papers I’ve read contained 51, 49 and 70 significance tests (counting conservatively), and to the extent that I’m able to see the forest for the trees, mostly poorly motivated ones. I wonder what the motivation behind this deluge of tests is. Is it wanton obfuscation (seems unlikely), a […] The post An inundation…

## On deck this week

May 25, 2015
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Mon: An inundation of significance tests Tues: Stock, flow, and two smoking regressions Wed: What’s the worst joke you’ve ever heard? Thurs: Cracked.com > Huffington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times Fri: Measurement is part of design Sat: “17 Baby Names You Didn’t Know Were Totally Made Up” Sun: What to do to train […] The post On deck…

## Big Data in Action

May 25, 2015
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Not long ago in Official Statistics the topic ‘Big Data’ was mostly discussed in a theoretical manner. https://blogstats.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/big-data-events/ However, now …Continue reading →

## Paper Helicopter experiment, part II

May 25, 2015
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Last week I created a JAGS model combining data from two paper helicopter datasets. This week, I will use the model to find the longest flying one.PredictingThe JAGS/RJAGS system has no predict() function that I know of. What I therefore did is adapt t...

## From our “Philosophy of Statistics” session: APS 2015 convention

May 25, 2015
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“The Philosophy of Statistics: Bayesianism, Frequentism and the Nature of Inference,” at the 2015 American Psychological Society (APS) Annual Convention in NYC, May 23, 2015:   D. Mayo: “Error Statistical Control: Forfeit at your Peril”    S. Senn: “‘Repligate’: reproducibility in statistical studies. What does it mean and in what sense does it matter?”   […]

## another viral math puzzle

May 24, 2015
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After the Singapore Maths Olympiad birthday problem that went viral, here is a Vietnamese primary school puzzle that made the frontline in The Guardian. The question is: Fill the empty slots with all integers from 1 to 9 for the equality to hold. In other words, find a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,i such that a+13xb:c+d+12xe–f-11+gxh:i-10=66. With presumably the operation […]

May 24, 2015
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Executive summary Surprisingly good. And it’s not like my expectations were especially low. Structure There are 20 chapters.  I mostly like the chapters and their order. Hadley breaks the 20 chapters into 4 parts.  He’s wrong.  Figure 1 illustrates the correct way to formulate parts. Figure 1: Chapters and Parts of Advanced R.    Introductory R There […] The post Review of…

## John Nash, 1928 – 2015

May 24, 2015
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John & Alicia NashTragically, John and Alicia Nash died as the result of a road accident on New Jersey yesterday.Just days previously, Nash was the co-recipient of the 2015 Abel Prize for his contributions to the theory of nonlinear parti...

## Chess + statistics + plagiarism, again!

May 24, 2015
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In response to this post (in which I noted that the Elo chess rating system is a static model which, paradoxically, is used to for the purposes of studying changes), Keith Knight writes: It’s notable that Glickman’s work is related to some research by Harry Joe at UBC, which in turn was inspired by data […] The post Chess +…

## "The free development of each is the condition of the war of all against all": Some Paths to the True Knowledge

May 23, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: A 5000+ word attempt to provide real ancestors and support for an imaginary ideology I don't actually accept, drawing on fields in which I am in no way an expert. Contains long quotations from even-longer-dead writers, ...

## Any P-Value Distinguishable from Zero is Insufficiently Informative

May 23, 2015
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## My favorite R bug

May 23, 2015
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In this note am going to recount “my favorite R bug.” It isn’t a bug in R. It is a bug in some code I wrote in R. I call it my favorite bug, as it is easy to commit and (thanks to R’s overly helpful nature) takes longer than it should to find. The … Continue reading My favorite…

## Kaiser’s beef

May 23, 2015
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The Numbersense guy writes in: Have you seen this? It has one of your pet peeves… let’s draw some data-driven line in the categorical variable and show significance. To make it worse, he adds a final paragraph saying essentially this is just a silly exercise that I hastily put together and don’t take it seriously! […] The post Kaiser’s beef…