Grades of evidence – A cheat sheet

April 17, 2015
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There are at least three traditions in statistics which work with a kind of likelihood ratios (LRs): the “Bayes factor camp”, the “AIC camp”, and the “likehood camp”. In my experience, unfortunately most people do no...

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Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality

April 17, 2015
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I sent my post about the political implication of behavioral economics, embodied cognition, etc., to Gerd Gigerenzer, who commented as follows: The “half-empty” versus “half-full” explanation of the differences between Kahneman and us misses the essential point: the difference is about the nature of the glass of rationality, not the level of the water. For […] The post Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Stata goes Bayesian

April 17, 2015
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The other day, my colleague Gareth pointed out a very interesting piece of news. The new version of Stata is just out. Now, I'm not a super-Stata user (although I think it's a good package), but the interesting news is that they have now developed a sp...

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The many faces of the placebo response

April 17, 2015
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The many faces of the placebo response

This week, a study was published that claimed that the placebo response is mediated by genetics. Though I need to dig a little deeper and figure out exactly what this article is saying, I do think we need to take a step back and remember what can const...

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Guidelines for reporting confidence intervals

April 17, 2015
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I'm working on a manuscript on confidence intervals, and I thought I'd share a draft section on the reporting of confidence intervals. The paper has several demonstrations of how CIs may, or may not, offer quality inferences, and how they can differ ma...

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My Paper With Al Gol

April 16, 2015
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My Paper With Al Gol

My apologies for the broken link to my paper co-authored with Al Gol that was listed in the "April Reading" post on 1 April.This has now been fixed.© 2015, David E. Giles

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A Lot moRe Than Fifty Shades of Gray

April 16, 2015
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R has 108 shades of grey with an 'e', and 116 shades of gray with an 'a'. Fully 34% of named colors are gray/grey of some kind. So when can we expect R, the movie? # Blog appendix > temp = colors() > length(temp) #657 [1] 657 > > temp2 ...

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Perhaps the most contextless email I’ve ever received

April 16, 2015
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Date: February 3, 2015 at 12:55:59 PM EST Subject: Sample Stats Question From: ** Hello, I hope all is well and trust that you are having a great day so far. I hate to bother you but I have a stats question that I need help with: How can you tell which group has the […] The post Perhaps the most contextless email I’ve ever received appeared first on Statistical…

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Statistics journals network

April 16, 2015
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Statistics journals network

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A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy

April 16, 2015
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A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy

A Statistical Model as a Chance Mechanism Aris Spanos  Today is the birthday of Jerzy Neyman (April 16, 1894 – August 5, 1981). Neyman was a Polish/American statistician[i] who spent most of his professional career at the University of California, Berkeley. Neyman is best known in statistics for his pioneering contributions in framing the Neyman-Pearson (N-P) […]

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Python and R: Basic Sampling Problem

April 16, 2015
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In this post, I would like to share a simple problem about sampling analysis. And I will demonstrate how to solve this using Python and R. The first two problems are originally from Sampling: Design and Analysis book by Sharon Lohr.ProblemsLet $N=6$ an...

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Recommending Recommender Systems When Preferences Are Not Driven By Simple Features

April 15, 2015
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Recommending Recommender Systems When Preferences Are Not Driven By Simple Features

Why does lifting out a slice make the pizza appear more appealing?We can begin our discussion with the ultimate feature bundle - pizza toppings. Technically, a menu would only need to list all the toppings and allow the customers to build their own piz...

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Item-response and ideal point models

April 15, 2015
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To continue from today’s class, here’s what we’ll be discussing next time: - Estimating the direction and the magnitude of the discrimination parameters. - How to tell when your data don’t fit the model. - When does ideal-point modeling make a difference? Comparing ideal-point estimates to simple averages of survey responses. P.S. Unlike the previous […] The post Item-response and ideal point models appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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My Favourite Book

April 15, 2015
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My Favourite Book

Well, perhaps it's not really my favourite book, but it's certainly right up there with the most heavily thumbed tomes on my office bookshelf.I'm referring to Tables of Integrals, Series and Products, by Gradshteyn and Ryzhik. I picked up a used copy o...

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Link: Design and Redesign in Data Visualization

April 15, 2015
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Fernanda Viégas and Martin Wattenberg have written a wonderful piece titled Design and Redesign in Data Visualization about criticism in data visualization. They thoughtfully analyze the practice and point out some of the issues when people create redesigns, including intellectual honesty and perfect hindsight. They then go on to define some “rules of engagement” for a more … Continue reading Link: Design and Redesign in Data Visualization

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A message I just sent to my class

April 15, 2015
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I wanted to add some context to what we talked about in class today. Part of the message I was sending was that there are some stupid things that get published and you should be careful about that: don’t necessarily believe something, just cos it’s statistically significant and published in a top journal. And, sure, […] The post A message I just sent to my class appeared first on Statistical…

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Two hour marathon by 2041 — probably

April 15, 2015
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Two hour marathon by 2041 — probably

Last fall I taught an introduction to Bayesian statistics at Olin College.  My students worked on some excellent projects, and I invited them to write up their results as guest articles for this blog.  Previous articles in the series are:Baye...

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Hello to St. Louis readers

April 15, 2015
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Hello to St. Louis readers

I'll be hosting a Data Visualization workshop at the Digital Media Marketing Conference in St. Louis, Missouri on Thursday. Here is the link to their website. The workshop is arranged from three themes: Appreciating, Conceptualizing, and Improving. There will be...

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The distribution of Pythagorean triples by angle

April 15, 2015
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The distribution of Pythagorean triples by angle

Last week I was chatting with some mathematicians and I mentioned the blog post that I wrote last year on the distribution of Pythagorean triples. In my previous article, I showed that there is an algorithm that uses matrix multiplication to generate every primitive Pythagorean triple by starting with the […]

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Doing Bayesian data analysis again at Bernoulli’s grave

April 14, 2015
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Doing Bayesian data analysis again at Bernoulli’s grave

The 2nd Edition of the book visited the grave of Jacob Bernoulli (1655-1705) in Basel, Switzerland. Jacob Bernoulli pre-dated Bayes (1701-1761), of course, but Bernoulli established foundational concepts and theorems of probability. The photos below we...

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Bernoulli, Montmort and Waldegrave

April 14, 2015
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Bernoulli, Montmort and Waldegrave

In the last issue of Statistical Science, David Belhouse [author of De Moivre’s biography]  and Nicolas Fillion published an accounting of a discussion between Pierre Rémond de Montmort, Nicolaus Bernoulli—”the” Bernoulli associated with the St. Petersburg paradox—, and Francis Waldegrave, about the card game of Le Her (or Hère, for wretch). Here is the abridged […]

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Helicopter parenting because your mind is "terrible at statistics" (or, rather, you are unaware of the denominator)

April 14, 2015
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Helicopter parenting because your mind is "terrible at statistics" (or, rather, you are unaware of the denominator)

In Megan McArdle's Seven Reasons We Hate Free-Range Parenting - Bloomberg View:, she states that because of the news cycle, and because our minds are terrible at statistics, we think the world is a much less safe place than 30 years ago. It's true...

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Regression Coefficients & Units of Measurement

April 14, 2015
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Regression Coefficients & Units of Measurement

A linear regression equation is just that - an equation. This means that when any of the variables - dependent or explanatory - have units of measurement, we also have to keep track of the units of measurement for the estimated regression coefficients....

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