Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen

April 17, 2017
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Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen

I’ll continue to post Neyman-related items this week in honor of his birthday. This isn’t the only paper in which Neyman makes it clear he denies a distinction between a test of  statistical hypotheses and significance tests. He and E. Pearson also discredit the myth that the former is only allowed to report pre-data, fixed error probabilities, and are […]

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“Do you think the research is sound or is it gimmicky pop science?”

April 17, 2017
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“Do you think the research is sound or is it gimmicky pop science?”

David Nguyen writes: I wanted to get your opinion on http://www.scienceofpeople.com/. Do you think the research is sound or is it gimmicky pop science? My reply: I have no idea. But since I see no evidence on the website, I’ll assume it’s pseudoscience until I hear otherwise. I won’t believe it until it has the […] The post “Do you think the research is sound or is it gimmicky pop…

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Visualize the 68-95-99.7 rule in SAS

April 17, 2017
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Visualize the 68-95-99.7 rule in SAS

A reader commented on last week's article about constructing symmetric intervals. He wanted to know if I created it in SAS. Yes, the graph, which illustrates the so-called 68-95-99.7 rule for the normal distribution, was created by using several statements in the SGPLOT procedure in Base SAS The SERIES statement [...] The post Visualize the 68-95-99.7 rule in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Visualizing (censored) lifetime distributions

April 17, 2017
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Visualizing (censored) lifetime distributions

There are now more than 10,000 R packages available from CRAN, much more if you include those available only on github. So, to be honest, it become difficult to know all of them. But sometimes, you discover a nice function in one of them, and that is really awesome. Consider for instance some (standard) censored lifetime data, n=10000 idx=sample(1:4,size=n,replace=TRUE) pd=LETTERS[idx] lambda=1+(idx-1)/3 t=rexp(n,lambda) x=rexp(n) c=t>x y=pmin(t,x) df=data.frame(time=y,status=c,product=pd) (yes, I will generate…

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Bayesian workshops, June and August 2017

April 16, 2017
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Bayesian workshops, June and August 2017

Upcoming multi-day workshops in doing Bayesian data analysis (2017):June 5 - 9. Stats Camp, Albuquerque, New Mexico (USA). Taught by Prof. John Kruschke. June 12 - 16. Global School for Empirical Research Methods, St. Gallen, Switzerland. Taught by ...

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Organizations that defend junk science are pitiful suckers get conned and conned again

April 16, 2017
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Organizations that defend junk science are pitiful suckers get conned and conned again

So. Cornell stands behind Wansink, and Ohio State stands behind Croce. George Mason University bestows honors on Weggy. Penn State trustee disses “so-called victims.” Local religious leaders aggressively defend child abusers in their communities. And we all remember how long it took for Duke University to close the door on Dr. Anil Potti. OK, I […] The post Organizations that defend junk science are pitiful suckers get conned and conned…

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Causal inference conference in North Carolina

April 15, 2017
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Causal inference conference in North Carolina

Michael Hudgens announces: Registration for the 2017 Atlantic Causal Inference Conference is now open. The registration site is here. More information about the conference, including the poster session and the Second Annual Causal Inference Data Analysis Challenge can be found on the conference website here. We held the very first Atlantic Causal Inference Conference here at Columbia […] The post Causal inference conference in North Carolina appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Jan Kiviet’s Book on Monte Carlo Simulation

April 15, 2017
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Jan Kiviet’s Book on Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation is an essential tool that econometricians use a great deal. For an introduction to some aspects of Monte Carlo simulation, see my earlier posts here, here, and here. There are some follow-up posts on this comi...

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Encoding categorical variables: one-hot and beyond

April 15, 2017
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Encoding categorical variables: one-hot and beyond

(or: how to correctly use xgboost from R) R has "one-hot" encoding hidden in most of its modeling paths. Asking an R user where one-hot encoding is used is like asking a fish where there is water; they can’t point to it as it is everywhere. For example we can see evidence of one-hot encoding … Continue reading Encoding categorical variables: one-hot and beyond

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The Efron transition? And the wit and wisdom of our statistical elders

April 15, 2017
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The Efron transition?  And the wit and wisdom of our statistical elders

Stephen Martin writes: Brad Efron seems to have transitioned from “Bayes just isn’t as practical” to “Bayes can be useful, but EB is easier” to “Yes, Bayes should be used in the modern day” pretty continuously across three decades. http://www2.stat.duke.edu/courses/Spring10/sta122/Handouts/EfronWhyEveryone.pdf http://projecteuclid.org/download/pdf_1/euclid.ss/1028905930 http://statweb.stanford.edu/~ckirby/brad/other/2009Future.pdf Also, Lindley’s comment in the first article is just GOLD: “The last example […] The post The Efron transition? And the wit and wisdom of our statistical elders…

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If you’re seeing limb-sawing in P-value logic, you’re sawing off the limbs of reductio arguments

April 15, 2017
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If you’re seeing limb-sawing in P-value logic, you’re sawing off the limbs of reductio arguments

I was just reading a paper by Martin and Liu (2014) in which they allude to the “questionable logic of proving H0 false by using a calculation that assumes it is true”(p. 1704).  They say they seek to define a notion of “plausibility” that “fits the way practitioners use and interpret p-values: a small p-value means […]

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Causal inference conference at Columbia University on Sat 6 May: Varying Treatment Effects

April 14, 2017
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Causal inference conference at Columbia University on Sat 6 May:  Varying Treatment Effects

Hey! We’re throwing a conference: Varying Treatment Effects The literature on causal inference focuses on estimating average effects, but the very notion of an “average effect” acknowledges variation. Relevant buzzwords are treatment interactions, situational effects, and personalized medicine. In this one-day conference we shall focus on varying effects in social science and policy research, with […] The post Causal inference conference at Columbia University on Sat 6 May: Varying Treatment…

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Light entertainment: is it safe for our eyes?

April 14, 2017
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Light entertainment: is it safe for our eyes?

There is a brewing controversy over ads shown on video websites. Because of the automation, and generally opacity of the online advertising market, advertisers sometimes find their ads next to undesirable content, such as extremist videos. This chart analyzes the...

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On Pseudo Out-of-Sample Model Selection

April 14, 2017
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Great to see that Hirano and Wright (HW), "Forecasting with Model Uncertainty", finally came out in Econometrica. (Ungated working paper version here.) HW make two key contributions. First, they characterize rigorously the source of the inefficiency in...

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Some Facts about Jeff Leek

Some Facts about Jeff Leek

Note: What other facts about Jeff Leek do you “know”? Please feel free to click the edit button above and submit a pull request on Github, or tweet with the hashtag #jeffleekfacts. I have not written blog posts for quite a while. It is not because I don’t have anything to write. On the contrary, I have a huge amount of things that I could have written about, e.g., how…

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Some Facts about Jeff Leek

Some Facts about Jeff Leek

Note: What other facts about Jeff Leek do you “know”? Please feel free to click the edit button above and submit a pull request on Github. I have not written blog posts for quite a while. It is not because I don’t have anything to...

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optimultiplication [a riddle]

April 13, 2017
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optimultiplication [a riddle]

The riddle of this week is about an optimisation of positioning the four digits of a multiplication of two numbers with two digits each and is open to a coding resolution: Four digits are drawn without replacement from {0,1,…,9}, one at a time. What is the optimal strategy to position those four digits, two digits […]

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optimultiplication [a riddle]

April 13, 2017
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optimultiplication [a riddle]

The riddle of this week is about an optimisation of positioning the four digits of a multiplication of two numbers with two digits each and is open to a coding resolution: Four digits are drawn without replacement from {0,1,…,9}, one at a time. What is the optimal strategy to position those four digits, two digits […]

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optimultiplication [a riddle]

April 13, 2017
By
optimultiplication [a riddle]

The riddle of this week is about an optimisation of positioning the four digits of a multiplication of two numbers with two digits each and is open to a coding resolution: Four digits are drawn without replacement from {0,1,…,9}, one at a time. What is the optimal strategy to position those four digits, two digits […]

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I wanna be ablated

April 13, 2017
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I wanna be ablated

Mark Dooris writes: I am senior staff cardiologist from Australia. I attach a paper that was presented at our journal club some time ago. It concerned me at the time. I send it as I suspect you collect similar papers. You may indeed already be aware of this paper. I raised my concerns about the […] The post I wanna be ablated appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Confuse, confuses, confused, confusing

April 13, 2017
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Confuse, confuses, confused, confusing

Via Twitter, @Stoltzmaniac sent me this chart, from the Economist (link to article): There is simply too much going on on the right side of the chart. The designer seems not to be able to decide which metric is more...

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Air rage rage

April 13, 2017
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Air rage rage

Commenter David alerts us that Consumer Reports fell for the notorious air rage story. Background on air rage here and here. Or, if you want to read something by someone other than me, here. This last piece is particularly devastating as it addresses flaws in the underlying research article, hype in the news reporting, and […] The post Air rage rage appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Keeping Up with Your Data Science Options

April 12, 2017
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Keeping Up with Your Data Science Options

The field of data science is changing so rapidly that it’s quite hard to keep up with it all. When I first started tracking The Popularity of Data Science Software in 2010, I followed only ten packages, all of them classic … Continue reading →

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