The paper helicopter experiment

May 17, 2015
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The paper helicopter is one of the devices to explain about design of experiments. The aim is to create the longest flying paper helicopter by means of experimental design.Paper helicopters are a nice example, because they are cheap to make, easy to te...

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Are you ready to go fishing in the data lake?

May 16, 2015
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Are you ready to go fishing in the data lake?

While Andrew is trying to get someone to make a t-shirt design “Gone fishing”, someone else thinks fishing is one of the “big data trends in 2015″. This advertisement by some company keeps re-appearing in my twitter feed. The p...

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Apology to George A. Romero

May 16, 2015
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This came in the email one day last year: Good Afternoon Mr. Gelman, I am reaching out to you on behalf of Pearson Education who would like to license an excerpt of text from How Many Zombies Do You Know? for the following, upcoming textbook program: Title: Writing Today Author: Richard Johnson-Sheehan and Charles Paine […] The post Apology to George A. Romero appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Mark Thoma Interviews Koen Jochmans

May 15, 2015
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Mark Thoma Interviews Koen Jochmans

The Denis Sargan Econometrics Prize is awarded annually by the Royal Economic Society for "the best (unsolicited) article published in The Econometrics Journal in a given year by anyone who is within five years of being awarded their doctorate."Th...

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I actually think this infographic is ok

May 15, 2015
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Under the heading, “bad charts,” Mark Duckenfield links to this display by Quoctrung Bui and writes: So much to go with here, but I [Duckenfield] would just highlight the bars as the most egregious problem as it is implied that the same number of people are in each category. Obviously that is not the case […] The post I actually think this infographic is ok appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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New in forecast 6.0

May 15, 2015
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New in forecast 6.0

This week I uploaded a new version of the forecast package to CRAN. As there were a lot of changes, I decided to increase the version number to 6.0. The changes are all outlined in the ChangeLog file as usual. I will highlight some of the more important changes since v5.0 here. ETS One of […]

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Interesting New Work on Yield Curve Modeling

May 14, 2015
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Interesting New Work on Yield Curve Modeling

Loved last week's PIER lectures at Penn. Good people, good times, good spring weather.  (Please join us next year in May 2016! More information in due course.) On Thursday we did yield curves, which had me thinking about what's new that I lik...

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The connection between varying treatment effects and the well-known optimism of published research findings

May 14, 2015
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Jacob Hartog writes: I thought this article [by Hunt Allcott and Sendhil Mullainathan], although already a couple of years old, fits very well into the themes of your blog—in particular the idea that the “true” treatment effect is likely to vary a lot depending on all kinds of factors that we can and cannot observe, […] The post The connection between varying treatment effects and the well-known optimism of published…

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No major hurricanes have hit the US coast recently. Lucky us!

May 14, 2015
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No major hurricanes have hit the US coast recently. Lucky us!

Perhaps you saw the headlines earlier this week about the fact that it has been nine years since the last major hurricane (category 3, 4, or 5) hit the US coast. According to a post on the GeoSpace blog, which is published by the American Geophysical Union (AGU), researchers ran […] The post No major hurricanes have hit the US coast recently. Lucky us! appeared first on The DO Loop.

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What’s so great about real names?

May 14, 2015
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A little while back a New York Times article discusses the consequences for college admission of saying undiplomatic things in social media. Apparently colleges monitor, or at least check up on, the social media presence of their potential applicants to see whether they’re the right kind of person for the school. Inevitably, students scrub, curate, or […]

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More changes to the IJF editorial board

May 14, 2015
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More changes to the IJF editorial board

The editorial board of the International Journal of Forecasting is going through a renewal process with several changes to the team of editors and the team of associate editors in the last few weeks. New Editors Graham Elliott has decided to step down from the IJF editorial board after many years of service. Graham is […]

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The Bayesian New Statistics: Two Historical Trends Converge

May 14, 2015
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The Bayesian New Statistics: Two Historical Trends Converge

If not null hypothesis significance testing, then what? If not p values, then confidence intervals? If not NHST, then Bayes factors? Both? Neither? These issues are addressed in a new manuscript titled The Bayesian New Statistics: Two Historical Trends...

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Webinar

May 13, 2015
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Webinar

Yesterday, I have given a webinar (is it even how you say it? "give a webinar"? Anyway...). It was organised by Mapi and I spoke about using the analysis of the value of information in health economic evaluation. The link to the complete webi...

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ICTM Conference

May 13, 2015
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I've been asked to advertise the upcoming International Clinical Trial Methodology conference $-$ this year it will be held in Glasgow. Oddly enough, this will be the second time in a row that the conference is held in Scotland (the 2nd edition wa...

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What is Data Science? Can Topic Modeling Help?

May 13, 2015
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What is Data Science? Can Topic Modeling Help?

Predictive analytics often serves as an introduction to data science, but it may not be the best exemplar given its long history and origins in statistics. David Blei, on the other hand, struggles to define data science through his work on topic modeli...

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“I mean, what exact buttons do I have to hit?”

May 13, 2015
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While looking for something else, I happened to come across this: Unfortunately there’s the expectation that if you start with a scientific hypothesis and do a randomized experiment, there should be a high probability of learning an enduring truth. And if the subject area is exciting, there should consequently be a high probability of publication […] The post “I mean, what exact buttons do I have to hit?” appeared first…

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Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, April 2015

May 13, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Christian Caryl, Strange Rebels: 1979 and the Birth of the 21st Century A very nicely written popular history of five movements that either began or reached a peak in 1979: the Iranian Revolution, the...

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My talk at MIT this Thursday

May 13, 2015
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When I was a student at MIT, there was no statistics department. I took a statistics course from Stephan Morgenthaler and liked it. (I’d already taken probability and stochastic processes back at the University of Maryland; my instructor in the latter class was Prof. Grace Yang, who was super-nice. I couldn’t follow half of what […] The post My talk at MIT this Thursday appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Two-stage sampling of hierarchical data in SAS

May 13, 2015
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Two-stage sampling of hierarchical data in SAS

I always learn something new when I attend SAS Global Forum, and it often results from an informal conversations in The Quad or in a hallway. Last week a SAS customer described a scenario that he wanted to implement as part of an analysis of some genetic data. To oversimplify […] The post Two-stage sampling of hierarchical data in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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the Flatland paradox

May 12, 2015
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the Flatland paradox

Pierre Druilhet arXived a note a few days ago about the Flatland paradox (due to Stone, 1976) and his arguments against the flat prior. The paradox in this highly artificial setting is as follows:  Consider a sequence θ of N independent draws from {a,b,1/a,1/b} such that N and θ are unknown; a draw followed by its […]

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Alternative Tests for Serial Independence

May 12, 2015
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Alternative Tests for Serial Independence

The following question arose in a (fairly) recent email from Daumantas:"I wonder if you could give any references -- or perhaps make a new blog post -- about testing for serial correlation: Breusch-Godfrey versus Ljung-Box test. I have no problem findi...

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"The free development of each is the condition of the war of all against all":

May 12, 2015
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Some Paths to the True Knowledge Attention conservation notice: A 5000+ word attempt to provide real ancestors and support for an imaginary ideology I don't actually accept, drawing on fields in which I am in no way an expert. Contains long quotation...

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There’s something about humans

May 12, 2015
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An interesting point came up recently. In the abstract to my psychology talk, I’d raised the question: If we can’t trust p-values, does experimental science involving human variation just have to start over? In the comments, Rahul wrote: Isn’t the qualifier about human variation redundant? If we cannot trust p-values we cannot trust p-values. My […] The post There’s something about humans appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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