Solving Statistics Problems Using Stan (my talk at the NYC chapter of the American Statistical Association)

September 12, 2016
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Here’s the announcement: Solving Statistics Problems Using Stan Stan is a free and open-source probabilistic programming language and Bayesian inference engine. In this talk, we demonstrate the use of Stan for some small fun problems and then discuss some open problems in Stan and in Bayesian computation and Bayesian inference more generally. It’s next Tues, […] The post Solving Statistics Problems Using Stan (my talk at the NYC chapter of…

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Bayesian Statistics Then and Now

September 12, 2016
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I happened to recently reread this article of mine from 2010, and I absolutely love it. I don’t think it’s been read by many people—it was published as one of three discussions of an article by Brad Efron in Statistical Science—so I wanted to share it with you again here. This is the article where […] The post Bayesian Statistics Then and Now appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Time-Series Econometrics and Climate Change

September 12, 2016
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It's exciting to see time series econometrics contributing to the climate change discussion.  Check out the upcoming CREATES conference, "Econometric Models of Climate Change", here.Here are a few good examples of recent time-series climate resear...

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Telco churn prediction with R+H2O

September 12, 2016
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Recently together with my friend Wit Jakuczun we have discussed about a blog post on Revolution showing application of SQL Server R services to build and run telco churn model. It is a very nice analysis and we thought that it would be interesting...

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Overlay a curve on a bar chart in SAS

September 12, 2016
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Overlay a curve on a bar chart in SAS

One of the strengths of the SGPLOT procedure in SAS is the ease with which you can overlay multiple plots on the same graph. For example, you can easily combine the SCATTER and SERIES statements to add a curve to a scatter plot. However, if you try to overlay incompatible […] The post Overlay a curve on a bar chart in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Review: Lupi, Posavec, Dear Data

September 12, 2016
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Review: Lupi, Posavec, Dear Data

Giorgia Lupi and Stefanie Posavec have turned their Dear Data project into a book. It's a great example of the kind of creative work you can do around visualization without computers, entirely by hand. What started with a simple idea turned into an amazing project. Dear Data consisted of Giorgia and Stefanie, who are both visual designers, tracking an aspect […]

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Stan wins again!

September 12, 2016
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Stan wins again!

See here. The post Stan wins again! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Adversarial machine learning

September 11, 2016
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I just got back from a very good conference organized by startup.ml: Adversarial Machine Learning. Please read on for my to comments on part of one of the very good talks. Classic machine learning (especially as it is taught in classes) emphasizes a nice safe static environment where you are given some unchanging data and … Continue reading Adversarial machine learning

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Genius is not enough: The sad story of Peter Hagelstein, living monument to the sunk-cost fallacy

September 11, 2016
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Genius is not enough:  The sad story of Peter Hagelstein, living monument to the sunk-cost fallacy

I sometimes pick up various old collections that will be suitable for bathroom reading, and so it was that the other day I was sitting on the throne reading the summer 1985 issue of Granta, entitled Science. Lots of great stuff here, including Oliver Sacks on Tourette’s syndrome, Thomas McMahan on Alexander Graham Bell, and […] The post Genius is not enough: The sad story of Peter Hagelstein, living monument…

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Hypothesis Testing is a Bad Idea (my talk at Warwick, England, 2pm Thurs 15 Sept)

September 10, 2016
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This is the conference, and here’s my talk (will do Google hangout, just as with my recent talks in Bern, Strasbourg, etc): Hypothesis Testing is a Bad Idea Through a series of examples, we consider problems with classical hypothesis testing, whether performed using classical p-values or confidence intervals, Bayes factors, or Bayesian inference using noninformative […] The post Hypothesis Testing is a Bad Idea (my talk at Warwick, England, 2pm…

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You may not be interested in peer review, but peer review is interested in you

September 10, 2016
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Here’s an ironic juxtaposition from Tyler Cowen’s blog. On 28 Apr he discusses a paper with a market system for improving peer review and concludes, “Interesting, but the main problem with the idea is simply that no one cares.” The day before, his assorted links featured “Frequency of Sex Shapes Automatic, but Not Explicit, Partner […] The post You may not be interested in peer review, but peer review is…

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Q: “Is A 50-State Poll As Good As 50 State Polls?” A: Use Mister P.

September 9, 2016
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Jeff Lax points to this post from Nate Silver and asks for my thoughts. In his post, Nate talks about data quality issues of national and state polls. It’s a good discussion, but the one thing he unfortunately doesn’t talk about is multilevel regression and poststratification (or see here for more). What you want to […] The post Q: “Is A 50-State Poll As Good As 50 State Polls?” A:…

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Stan users group hits 2000 registrations

September 9, 2016
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Stan users group hits 2000 registrations

Of course, there are bound to be duplicate emails, dead emails, and people who picked up Stan, joined the list, and never came back. But still, that’s a lot of people who’ve expressed interest! It’s been an amazing ride that’s only going to get better as we learn more and continue to improve Stan’s speed […] The post Stan users group hits 2000 registrations appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Open Science and research quality at the German conference on psychology (DGPs congress in Leipzig)

September 9, 2016
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From 17th to 22th September, the 50th anniversary congress of the German psychological association takes place in Leipzig. On previous conferences in Germany in the last two or three years, the topic of the credibility crisis and research transparency ...

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Exploration vs. exploitation tradeoff

September 9, 2016
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Exploration vs. exploitation tradeoff

Alon Levy (link from Palko) looks into “Hyperloop, a loopy intercity rail transit idea proposed by Tesla Motors’ Elon Musk, an entrepreneur who hopes to make a living some day building cars,” and writes: There is a belief within American media that a successful person can succeed at anything. He (and it’s invariably he) is […] The post Exploration vs. exploitation tradeoff appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Hokey mas, indeed

September 9, 2016
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Hokey mas, indeed

Paul Alper writes: The pictures which often accompany your blog are really “inside baseball” and I frequently fail to see the connection to the accompanying text. For example, when I click on today’s picture, I get: This happens to interest me because our granddaughter, who is now two years old and attends a Spanish-speaking daycare, […] The post Hokey mas, indeed appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Graphical inequity ruins the chart

September 9, 2016
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Graphical inequity ruins the chart

This Economist chart has a great concept but I find it difficult to find the story: (link) I am a fan of color-coding the text as they have done here so that part is good. The journalist has this neat...

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Spreadsheet Errors

September 9, 2016
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Spreadsheet Errors

Five years ago I wrote a post titled, "Beware of Econometricians Bearing Spreadsheets". The take-away message from that post was simple: there's considerable, well-documented, evidence that spreadsheets are very, very, dangerous when it comes to s...

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Several postdoc positions in probabilistic modeling and machine learning in Aalto, Helsinki

September 8, 2016
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This post is by Aki In addition to the postdoc position I advertised recently, now Aalto University and University of Helsinki have 20 more open postdoc and research fellow positions. Many of the positions are in probabilistic models and machine learning. You could work with me (I’m also part of HIIT), but I can also […] The post Several postdoc positions in probabilistic modeling and machine learning in Aalto, Helsinki…

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It’s not about normality, it’s all about reality

September 8, 2016
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It’s not about normality, it’s all about reality

This is just a repost, with a snazzy and appropriate title, of our discussion from a few years ago on the assumptions of linear regression, from section 3.6 of my book with Jennifer. In decreasing order of importance, these assumptions are: 1. Validity. Most importantly, the data you are analyzing should map to the research […] The post It’s not about normality, it’s all about reality appeared first on Statistical…

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Coverage probability of confidence intervals: A simulation approach

September 8, 2016
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Coverage probability of confidence intervals: A simulation approach

The article uses the SAS DATA step and Base SAS procedures to estimate the coverage probability of the confidence interval for the mean of normally distributed data. This discussion is based on Section 5.2 (p. 74–77) of Simulating Data with SAS. What is a confidence interval? Recall that a confidence […] The post Coverage probability of confidence intervals: A simulation approach appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Polling in the 21st century: There ain’t no urn

September 7, 2016
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Polling in the 21st century:  There ain’t no urn

David Rothschild writes: The Washington Post (WaPo) utilized Survey Monkey (SM) to survey 74,886 registered voters in all 50 states on who they would vote for in the upcoming election. I am very excited about the work, because I am a huge proponent of advancing polling methodology, but the methodological explanation and data detail bring […] The post Polling in the 21st century: There ain’t no urn appeared first on…

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research-lies-allegations-windpipe update

September 7, 2016
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Paul Alper writes: Found this today in the Washington Post. Recall that at my suggestion you blogged about this affair previously: http://andrewgelman.com/2016/06/16/research-lies-allegations-windpipe-surgery/ Damn windpipe surgeons, always causing tro...

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