Workshop on German national educational panel study

February 16, 2017
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Jutta von Maurice of the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories in Germany writes: In August this year, we plan to hold a user workshop in New York. We have data on educational processes and competence development from early childhood till late adulthood (n=60.000) and these data might be of special interest for international comparisons. Within […] The post Workshop on German national educational panel study appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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A knapsack riddle [#2]?

February 16, 2017
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A knapsack riddle [#2]?

Still about this allocation riddle of the past week, and still with my confusion about the phrasing of the puzzle, when looking at a probabilistic interpretation of the game, rather than for a given adversary’s y, the problem turns out to search for the maximum of where the Y’s are Binomial B(100,p). Given those p’s, […]

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Combining results from multiply imputed datasets

February 16, 2017
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Aaron Haslam writes: I have a question regarding combining the estimates from multiply imputed datasets. In the third addition of BDA on the top of page 452, you mention that with Bayesian analyses all you have to do is mix together the simulations. I want to clarify that this means you simply combine the posteriors […] The post Combining results from multiply imputed datasets appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Equivalence testing (two one-sided test) and NHST compared with HDI and ROPE

February 16, 2017
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Equivalence testing (two one-sided test) and NHST compared with HDI and ROPE

In this blog post I show that frequentist equivalence testing (using the procedure of two one-sided tests: TOST) with null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) can produce conflicting decisions for the same parameter values, that is, TOST can accept ...

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Cry of Alarm

February 16, 2017
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Cry of Alarm

Stan Liebowitz writes: Is it possible to respond to a paper that you are not allowed to discuss? The question above relates to some unusual behavior from a journal editor. As background, I [Liebowitz] have been engaged in a long running dispute regarding the analysis contained in an influential paper published in one of the […] The post Cry of Alarm appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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German Psychological Society fully embraces open data, gives detailed recommendations

February 15, 2017
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tl;dr: The German Psychological Society developed and adopted new recommendations for data sharing that fully embrace openness, transparency and scientific integrity. Key message is that raw data are an essential part of an empirical publication and mu...

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Come To My Talk At UW On Tuesday, February 21

February 15, 2017
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Come To My Talk At UW On Tuesday, February 21

I'm giving a public lecture next Tuesday, February 21, at the University of Washington (UW). This is at the invitation of Professor Karen Cheng at the School of Art + Art History + Design. I will talk about what we know and what we don't know about visualization, and how we can expand our knowledge. The talk I'm preparing is an […]

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How important is gerrymandering? and How to most effectively use one’s political energy?

February 15, 2017
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Andy Stein writes: I think a lot of people (me included) would be interested to read an updated blog post from you on gerrymandering, even if your conclusions haven’t changed at all from your 2009 blog post [see also here]. Lots of people are talking about it now and Obama seems like he’ll be working […] The post How important is gerrymandering? and How to most effectively use one’s political…

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Reading Everything is Obvious by Duncan Watts

February 15, 2017
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Reading Everything is Obvious by Duncan Watts

In his book, Everything is Obvious (Once You Know the Answer): Why Common Sense Fails, Duncan Watts, a professor of sociology at Columbia, imparts urgent lessons that are as relevant to his students as to self-proclaimed data scientists. It takes only nominal effort to generate narrative structures that retrace the past, Watts contends, but developing lasting theory that produces valid predictions requires much more effort than common sense. Watts’s is…

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Simultaneous confidence intervals for multinomial proportions

February 15, 2017
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Simultaneous confidence intervals for multinomial proportions

A categorical response variable can take on k different values. If you have a random sample from a multinomial response, the sample proportions estimate the proportion of each category in the population. This article describes how to construct simultaneous confidence intervals for the proportions as described in the 1997 paper [...] The post Simultaneous confidence intervals for multinomial proportions appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Forecasters: bring your family to Cairns

February 15, 2017
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Forecasters: bring your family to Cairns

We know Australia is a long way to come for many forecasters, so we are making it easy for you to bring your families along to the International Symposium on Forecasting and have a vacation at the same time. During the International Symposium on Forecasting, there will be a social program organized for family and […]

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The Australian Macro Database

February 15, 2017
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The Australian Macro Database

AusMacroData is a new website that encourages and facilitates the use of quantitative, publicly available Australian macroeconomic data.  The Australian Macro Database hosted at ausmacrodata.org provides a user-friendly front end for searching among over 40000 economic variables and is loosely based on similar international sites such as the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED).  In total, […]

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Educating the heart with maths and statistics

February 14, 2017
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Educating the heart with maths and statistics

What has love got to do with maths? This morning at the Twitter chat for teachers, (#bfc630nz) the discussion question was, How and what will you teach your students about life this year? As I lurked I was impressed at … Continue reading →

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Lasso regression etc in Stan

February 14, 2017
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Lasso regression etc in Stan

Someone on the users list asked about lasso regression in Stan, and Ben replied: In the rstanarm package we have stan_lm(), which is sort of like ridge regression, and stan_glm() with family = gaussian and prior = laplace() or prior = lasso(). The latter estimates the shrinkage as a hyperparameter while the former fixes it […] The post Lasso regression etc in Stan appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Identifying Neighborhood Effects

February 14, 2017
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Identifying Neighborhood Effects

Dionissi Aliprantis writes: I have just published a paper (online here) on what we can learn about neighborhood effects from the results of the Moving to Opportunity housing mobility experiment. I wanted to suggest the paper (and/or the experiment more broadly) as a topic for your blog, as I am hoping the paper can start […] The post Identifying Neighborhood Effects appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Butcher: which part of the leg do you want? Me: All of it, in five pieces please

February 14, 2017
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Butcher: which part of the leg do you want? Me: All of it, in five pieces please

This ABC News chart seemed to have taken over the top of my Twitter feed so I better comment on it. Someone at ABC News tried really hard to dress up the numbers. The viz is obviously rigged - Obama...

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Excel Histograms, enhanced with R.

February 13, 2017
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Most people are familiar with Excel Histograms and understand that data is divided into a series of intervals, or bins and then how many values are in each bin are counted. These counts or frequencies are then typically shown on a chart that uses a bar...

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Predictive Loss vs. Predictive Regret

February 13, 2017
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It's interesting  to contrast two prediction paradigms.A.  The universal statistical/econometric approach to prediction:  Take a stand on a loss function and find/use a predictor that minimizes conditionally expected loss.  Note tha...

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Crossfire

February 13, 2017
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Crossfire

OK, guess the year of this quote: Experimental social psychology today seems dominated by values that suggest the following slogan: “Social psychology ought to be and is a lot of fun.” The fun comes not from the learning, but from the doing. Clever experimentation on exotic topics with a zany manipulation seems to be the […] The post Crossfire appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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An easy way to run thousands of regressions in SAS

February 13, 2017
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An easy way to run thousands of regressions in SAS

A common question on SAS discussion forums is how to repeat an analysis multiple times. Most programmers know that the most efficient way to analyze one model across many subsets of the data (perhaps each country or each state) is to sort the data and use a BY statement to [...] The post An easy way to run thousands of regressions in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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a knapsack riddle?

February 12, 2017
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a knapsack riddle?

The [then current now past] riddle of the week is a sort of multiarmed bandits optimisation. Of sorts. Or rather a generalised knapsack problem. The question is about optimising the allocation of 100 undistinguishable units to 10 distinct boxes against a similarly endowed adversary, when the loss function is and the distribution q of the […]

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Video Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis, Part 1: What is Bayes?

February 12, 2017
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Video Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis, Part 1: What is Bayes?

This is video one of a three part introduction to Bayesian data analysis aimed at you who isn’t necessarily that well-versed in probability theory but that do know a little bit of programming. I gave a version of this tutorial at the UseR 2015 conf...

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Stan and BDA on actuarial syllabus!

February 12, 2017
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Stan and BDA on actuarial syllabus!

Avi Adler writes: I am pleased to let you know that the Casualty Actuarial Society has announced two new exams and released their initial syllabi yesterday. Specifically, 50%–70% of the Modern Actuarial Statistics II exam covers Bayesian Analysis and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The official text we will be using is BDA3 and while we […] The post Stan and BDA on actuarial syllabus! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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