## SIST: All Excerpts and Mementos: May 2018-May 2019

Introduction & Overview The Meaning of My Title: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars* 05/19/18 Blurbs of 16 Tours: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST) 03/05/19 Excursion 1 EXCERPTS Tour I Excursion 1 Tour I: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement (1.1) […]

## Horse-and-buggy era officially ends for survey research

Peter Enns writes: Given the various comments on your blog about evolving survey methods (e.g., Of buggy whips and moral hazards; or, Sympathy for the Aapor), I thought you might be interested that the Roper Center has updated its acquisitions policy and is now accepting non-probability samples and other methods. This is an exciting move […]

## chance call for book reviewers

Since I have been unable to find local reviewers for my CHANCE review column of the above recent CRC Press books, namely Bayesian Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Medical Treatments, Moreno et al. Combinatorial Inference in Geometric Data Analysis, Le Roux et al. Time Series Clustering and Classification, Maharaj et al. Textual Data Science with R, Bécue-Bertaut […]

## When we had fascism in the United States

I was reading this horrifying and hilarious story by Colson Whitehead, along with an excellent article by Adam Gopnik in the New Yorker (I posted a nitpick on it a couple days ago) on the Reconstruction and post-Reconstruction era in the United States, and I was suddenly reminded of something. In one of the political […]

## Golden ratio primes

The golden ratio is the larger root of the equation φ² – φ – 1 = 0. By analogy, golden ratio primes are prime numbers of the form p = φ² – φ – 1 where φ is an integer. When φ is a large power of 2, these prime numbers are useful in cryptography […]

## Goldilocks and the three multiplications

Mike Hamburg designed an elliptic curve he calls Ed448-Goldilocks. The prefix Ed refers to the fact that it’s an Edwards curve. The number 448 refers to the fact that the curve is over a prime field where the prime p has size 448 bits. But why Goldilocks? Golden primes and Goldilocks The prime in this […]

## O’Bayes 2019 conference program

The full and definitive program of the O’Bayes 2019 conference in Warwick is now on line. Including discussants for all papers. And the three [and free] tutorials on Friday afternoon, 28 June, on model selection (M. Barbieri), MCMC recent advances (G.O. Roberts) and BART (E.I. George). Registration remains open at the reduced rate and submissions […]

## Tricks for arithmetic modulo NIST primes

The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) originally recommended 15 elliptic curves for use in elliptic curve cryptography [1]. Ten of these are over a field of size 2n. The other five are over prime fields. The sizes of these fields are known as the NIST primes. The NIST curves over prime fields […]

## Name this fallacy!

It’s the fallacy of thinking that, just cos you’re good at something, that everyone should be good at it, and if they’re not, they’re just being stubborn and doing it badly on purpose. I thought about this when reading this line from Adam Gopnik in the New Yorker: [Henry Louis] Gates is one of the […]

## Florence Nightingale´s 199th anniversary

## Elliptic curve P-384

The various elliptic curves used in ellitpic curve cryptography (ECC) have different properties, and we’ve looked at several of them before. For example, Curve25519 is implemented very efficiently, and the parameters were transparently chosen. Curve1174 is interesting because it’s an Edwards curve and has a special addition formula. This post looks at curve P-384. What’s […]

## What is “Tidy Data”

I would like to write a bit on the meaning and history of the phrase “tidy data.” Hadley Wickham has been promoting the term “tidy data.” For example in an eponymous paper, he wrote: In tidy data: Each variable forms a column. Each observation forms a row. Each type of observational unit forms a table. … Continue reading What is “Tidy Data”

## Did blind orchestra auditions really benefit women?

You’re blind! And you can’t see You need to wear some glasses Like D.M.C. Someone pointed me to this post, “Orchestrating false beliefs about gender discrimination,” by Jonatan Pallesen criticizing a famous paper from 2000, “Orchestrating Impartiality: The Impact of ‘Blind’ Auditions on Female Musicians,” by Claudia Goldin and Cecilia Rouse. We’ve all heard the […]

## news from the theocrazy [Uwolnić Elę]

## Maintenance cost is quadratic in the number of features

Bob Carpenter shares this story illustrating the challenges of software maintenance. Here’s Bob: This started with the maintenance of upgrading to the new Boost version 1.69, which is this pull request: https://github.com/stan-dev/math/pull/1082 for this issue: https://github.com/stan-dev/math/issues/1081 The issue happens first, then the pull request, then the fun of debugging starts. Today’s story starts an issue […]

## easy Riddler

The riddle of the week is rather standard probability calculus If N points are generated at random places on the perimeter of a circle, what is the probability that you can pick a diameter such that all of those points are on only one side of the newly halved circle? Since it is equivalent to […]

## That illusion where you think the other side is united and your side is diverse

Lots of people have written about this illusion of perspective: The people close to you look to be filled with individuality and diversity, while the people way over there in the other corner of the room all look kind of alike. But widespread knowledge of this illusion does not stop people from succumbing from it. […]

## econometrics summer masterclass at Warwick, 15 May

There is an Econometrics Summer Masterclass taking place in the department of economics next week in Warwick, on May 15, with Don Rubin as one of the speakers and the masterclass teacher.

## econometrics summer masterclass at Warwick, 15 May

There is an Econometrics Summer Masterclass taking place in the department of economics next week in Warwick, on May 15, with Don Rubin as one of the speakers and the masterclass teacher.