Nooooooo, just make it stop, please!

January 5, 2017
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Nooooooo, just make it stop, please!

Dan Kahan wrote: You should do a blog on this. I replied: I don’t like this article but I don’t really see the point in blogging on it. Why bother? Kahan: BECAUSE YOU REALLY NEVER HAVE EXPLAINED WHY. Gelman-Rubin criticque of BIC is *not* responsive; you have something in mind—tell us what, pls! Inquiring minds […] The post Nooooooo, just make it stop, please! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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When you add a predictor the model changes so it makes sense that the coefficients change too.

January 4, 2017
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Shane Littrell writes: I’ve recently graduated with my Masters in Science in Research Psych but I’m currently trying to get better at my stats knowledge (in psychology, we tend to learn a dumbed down, “Stats for Dummies” version of things). I’ve been reading about “suppressor effects” in regression recently and it got me curious about […] The post When you add a predictor the model changes so it makes sense…

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The top 10 posts from The DO Loop in 2016

January 4, 2017
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The top 10 posts from The DO Loop in 2016

I wrote 105 posts for The DO Loop blog in 2016. My most popular articles were about data analysis, SAS programming tips, and elementary statistics. Without further ado, here are the most popular articles from 2016. Data Analysis and Visualization Start with a juicy set of data and an interesting […] The post The top 10 posts from The DO Loop in 2016 appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Field Experiments and Their Critics

January 3, 2017
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Seven years ago I was contacted by Dawn Teele, who was then a graduate student and is now a professor of political science, and asked for my comments on an edited book she was preparing on social science experiments and their critics. I responded as follows: This is a great idea for a project. My […] The post Field Experiments and Their Critics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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truncated normal algorithms

January 3, 2017
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truncated normal algorithms

Nicolas Chopin (CREST) just posted an entry on Statisfaction about the comparison of truncated Normal algorithms run by Alan Rogers, from the University of Utah. Nicolas wrote a paper in Statistics and Computing about a simulation method, which proposes a Ziggurat type of algorithm for this purpose, and which I do not remember reading, thanks […]

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About that claim in the Monkey Cage that North Korea had “moderate” electoral integrity . . .

January 3, 2017
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Yesterday I wrote about problems with the Electoral Integrity Project, a set of expert surveys that are intended to “evaluate the state of the world’s elections” but have some problems, notably rating more than half of the U.S. states in 2016 as having lower integrity than Cuba (!) and North Korea (!!!) in 2014. I […] The post About that claim in the Monkey Cage that North Korea had “moderate”…

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Fragility index is too fragile

January 3, 2017
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Simon Gates writes: Where is an issue that has had a lot of publicity and Twittering in the clinical trials world recently. Many people are promoting the use of the “fragility index” (paper attached) to help interpretation of “significant” results from clinical trials. The idea is that it gives a measure of how robust the […] The post Fragility index is too fragile appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Torpedoing Econometric Randomized Controlled Trials

January 3, 2017
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A very Happy New Year to all! I get no pleasure from torpedoing anything, and "torpedoing" is likely exaggerated, but nevertheless take a look at "A Torpedo Aimed Straight at HMS Randomista". It argues that many econometric randomized controlled t...

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“Constructing expert indices measuring electoral integrity” — reply from Pippa Norris

January 3, 2017
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This morning I posted a criticism of the Electoral Integrity Project, a survey organized by Pippa Norris and others to assess elections around the world. Norris sent me a long response which I am posting below as is. I also invited Andrew Reynolds, the author of the controversial op-ed, to contribute to the discussion. Here’s […] The post “Constructing expert indices measuring electoral integrity” — reply from Pippa Norris appeared…

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About that bogus claim that North Carolina is no longer a democracy . . .

January 2, 2017
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About that bogus claim that North Carolina is no longer a democracy . . .

Nick Stevenson directed me to a recent op-ed in the Raleigh News & Observer, where political science professor Andrew Reynolds wrote: In 2005, in the midst of a career of traveling around the world to help set up elections in some of the most challenging places on earth . . . my Danish colleague, Jorgen […] The post About that bogus claim that North Carolina is no longer a democracy…

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Migration explaining observed changes in mortality rate in different geographic areas?

January 2, 2017
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We know that the much-discussed increase in mortality among middle-aged U.S. whites is mostly happening among women in the south. In response to some of that discussion, Tim Worstall wrote: I [Worstall] have a speculative answer. It is absolutely speculative: but it is also checkable to some extent. Really, I’m channelling my usual critique of […] The post Migration explaining observed changes in mortality rate in different geographic areas? appeared…

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Forecasting Natural Catastrophes (is rather difficult)

January 2, 2017
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Forecasting Natural Catastrophes (is rather difficult)

Following my previous post, I wanted to spend more time, on the time series with “global weather-related disaster losses as a proportion of global GDP” over the time period 1990-2016 that Roger Pilke sent me last night. db=data.frame(year=1990:2016, ratio=c(.23,.27,.32,.37,.22,.26,.29,.15,.40,.28,.14,.09,.24,.18,.29,.51,.13,.17,.25,.13,.21,.29,.25,.2,.15,.12,.12)) In my previous post, I spend some time explaining that we should provide some sort of ‘confidence interval’ when we try to predict a pattern. That was what we call ‘model…

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Stan 2.14 released for R and Python; fixes bug with sampler

January 2, 2017
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Stan 2.14 released for R and Python; fixes bug with sampler

Stan 2.14 is out and it fixes the sampler bug in Stan versions 2.10 through 2.13. Critical update It’s critical to update to Stan 2.14. See: RStan 2.14.1 PyStan 2.14.0.0 CmdStan 2.14.0 The other interfaces will update when you udpate CmdStan. The process After Michael Betancourt diagnosed the bug, it didn’t take long for him […] The post Stan 2.14 released for R and Python; fixes bug with sampler appeared…

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A Theory of Nested Cross Simulation

January 2, 2017
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A Theory of Nested Cross Simulation

[Reader’s Note. Some of our articles are applied and some of our articles are more theoretical. The following article is more theoretical, and requires fairly formal notation to even work through. However, it should be of interest as it touches on some of the fine points of cross-validation that are quite hard to perceive or … Continue reading A Theory of Nested Cross Simulation

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What is a Linear Trend, by the way?

January 2, 2017
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What is a Linear Trend, by the way?

I had a very strange discussion on twitter (yes, another one), about regression curves. I think it started with a tweet based on some xkcd picture (just for fun, because it was New Year’s Day) “don’t trust linear regressions” https://t.co/exUCvyRd1G pic.twitter.com/O6rBJfkULa — Arthur Charpentier (@freakonometrics) 1 janvier 2017 There were comments on that picture, by econometricians, mainly about ‘significant’ trends when datasets are very noisy. And I mentioned a graph…

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May the Force of R be With You, Always!

January 2, 2017
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May the Force of R be With You, Always!

With a Telegram account connected to @TeleR, the force of R can always be with me, where I have data. The following is a screenshot of my mobile: If you want to have R where you are too, you only need a Telegram account; then, you have to search for...

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Comment of the year

January 1, 2017
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In our discussion of research on the possible health benefits of a low-oxygen environment, Raghu wrote: This whole idea (low oxygen -> lower cancer risk) seems like a very straightforward thing to test in animals, which one can move to high and low oxygen environments . . . And then Llewelyn came in for the […] The post Comment of the year appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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New Year’s Reading

December 31, 2016
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New Year’s Reading

New Year's resolution - read more Econometrics!Bürgi, C., 2016. What do we lose when we average expectations? RPF Working Paper No. 2016-013, Department of Economics, George Washington University.Cox, D.R., 2016. Some pioneers of modern statistical th...

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Transformative treatments

December 31, 2016
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Transformative treatments

Kieran Healy and Laurie Paul wrote a new article, “Transformative Treatments,” (see also here) which reminds me a bit of my article with Guido, “Why ask why? Forward causal inference and reverse causal questions.” Healy and Paul’s article begins: Contemporary social-scientific research seeks to identify specific causal mechanisms for outcomes of theoretical interest. Experiments that […] The post Transformative treatments appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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“Kevin Lewis and Paul Alper send me so much material, I think they need their own blogs.”

December 30, 2016
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In my previous post, I wrote: Kevin Lewis and Paul Alper send me so much material, I think they need their own blogs. It turns out that Lewis does have his own blog. His latest entry contains a bunch of links, starting with this one: Populism and the Return of the “Paranoid Style”: Some Evidence […] The post “Kevin Lewis and Paul Alper send me so much material, I think…

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Two unrelated topics in one post: (1) Teaching useful algebra classes, and (2) doing more careful psychological measurements

December 30, 2016
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Kevin Lewis and Paul Alper send me so much material, I think they need their own blogs. In the meantime, I keep posting the stuff they send me, as part of my desperate effort to empty my inbox. 1. From Lewis: “Should Students Assessed as Needing Remedial Mathematics Take College-Level Quantitative Courses Instead? A Randomized […] The post Two unrelated topics in one post: (1) Teaching useful algebra classes, and…

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A Roundup of Year-End News Graphics Roundups

December 30, 2016
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A Roundup of Year-End News Graphics Roundups

The end of the year is always a good time to look back at the great work done in the world of news graphics – and this year in particular, to relive all the heartbreak and disillusionment. Here is a list of year-end news graphics round-ups for your enjoyment and edification. The New York Times, 2016: […]

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Why Not Join The Replication Network?

December 30, 2016
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Why Not Join The Replication Network?

I've been a member of The Replication Network (TRN) for some time now, and I commend it to you.I received the End-of-the-Year Update for the TRN today, and I'm taking the liberty of reproducing it below in its entirety in the hope that you may con...

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