Benefits and limitations of randomized controlled trials: I agree with Deaton and Cartwright

January 8, 2018
By

My discussion of “Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials,” by Angus Deaton and Nancy Cartwright, for Social Science & Medicine: I agree with Deaton and Cartwright that randomized trials are often overrated. There is a strange form of reasoning we often see in science, which is the idea that a chain of reasoning is as […] The post Benefits and limitations of randomized controlled trials: I agree with Deaton and…

Read more »

Nudge nudge, say no more

January 8, 2018
By

Alan Finlayson puts it well when he writes of “the tiresome business of informing and persuading people replaced by psychological techniques designed to ‘nudge’ us in the right direction.” I think that’s about right. Nudging makes sense as part of a package that already includes information and persuasion. For example, tell us that smoking causes […] The post Nudge nudge, say no more appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

2018 Outlook on Fake News

January 8, 2018
By
2018 Outlook on Fake News

Kaiser Fung, founder of Principal Analytics Prep and author of Numbers Rule Your World, discusses fake news, a hot topic in 2017, and offers his views on what might happen in 2018.

Read more »

Yield-Curve Modeling

January 8, 2018
By
Yield-Curve Modeling

Happy New Year to all!Riccardo Rebonato's Bond Pricing and Yield-Curve Modeling: A Structural Approach will soon appear from Cambridge University Press. It's very well done -- a fine blend of  theory, empirics, market sense, and good prose.  ...

Read more »

Yield-Curve Modeling

January 8, 2018
By
Yield-Curve Modeling

Happy New Year to all!Riccardo Rebonato's Bond Pricing and Yield-Curve Modeling: A Structural Approach will soon appear from Cambridge University Press. It's very well done -- a fine blend of  theory, empirics, market sense, and good prose.  ...

Read more »

Label multiple regression lines in SAS

January 8, 2018
By
Label multiple regression lines in SAS

A SAS programmer asked how to label multiple regression lines that are overlaid on a single scatter plot. Specifically, he asked to label the curves that are produced by using the REG statement with the GROUP= option in PROC SGPLOT. He wanted the labels to be the slope and intercept [...] The post Label multiple regression lines in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

Holt-Winters with a Quantile Loss Function

January 8, 2018
By
Holt-Winters with a Quantile Loss Function

Exponential Smoothing is an old technique, but it can perform extremely well on real time series, as discussed in Hyndman, Koehler, Ord & Snyder (2008)), when Gardner (2005) appeared, many believed that exponential smoothing should be disregarded because it was either a special case of ARIMA modeling or an ad hoc procedure with no statistical rationale. As McKenzie (1985) observed, this opinion was expressed in numerous references to my paper. Since…

Read more »

“However noble the goal, research findings should be reported accurately. Distortion of results often occurs not in the data presented but . . . in the abstract, discussion, secondary literature and press releases. Such distortion can lead to unsupported beliefs about what works for obesity treatment and prevention. Such unsupported beliefs may in turn adversely affect future research efforts and the decisions of lawmakers, clinicians and public health leaders.”

January 7, 2018
By

David Allison points us to this article by Bryan McComb, Alexis Frazier-Wood, John Dawson, and himself, “Drawing conclusions from within-group comparisons and selected subsets of data leads to unsubstantiated conclusions.” It’s a letter to the editor for the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, and it begins: [In the paper, “School-based systems change […] The post “However noble the goal, research findings should be reported accurately. Distortion of…

Read more »

Undemocratic Democracies

January 7, 2018
By
Undemocratic Democracies

I’ve always thought that it was ironic that most countries with the word “Democratic” in their name are exceptionally un-democratic in reality. So I was very interested in the following post on Reddit this week showing exactly this (https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/7nkyek/countries_with_the_word_democratic_in_their/). However, there are only 8 countries that have “democratic” in their name: People’s Democratic Republic of […]

Read more »

“Each computer run would last 1,000-2,000 hours, and, because we didn’t really trust a program that ran so long, we ran it twice, and it verified that the results matched. I’m not sure I ever was present when a run finished.”

January 6, 2018
By

Bill Harris writes: Skimming Michael Betancourt’s history of MCMC [discussed yesterday in this space] made me think: my first computer job was as a nighttime computer operator on the old Rice (R1) Computer, where I was one of several students who ran Monte Carlo programs written by (the very good) chemistry prof Dr. Zevi Salsburg […] The post “Each computer run would last 1,000-2,000 hours, and, because we didn’t really…

Read more »

Robo-lobbyists

January 6, 2018
By

Ethan Bolker points to this news item and writes: A couple more clicks after that, and we’re looking at a summarized version of a bill tackling cybersecurity that the software has considered and rendered a judgment on, when it comes to the probability that it will become law. We’re not talking a rough estimate. There’s […] The post Robo-lobbyists appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Read more »

How does probabilistic computation differ in physics and statistics?

January 5, 2018
By

[image of Schrodinger’s cat, of course] Stan collaborator Michael Betancourt wrote an article, “The Convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo Methods: From the Metropolis method to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo,” discussing how various ideas of computational probability moved from physics to statistics. Three things I wanted to add to Betancourt’s story: 1. My paper with Rubin […] The post How does probabilistic computation differ in physics and statistics? appeared first on…

Read more »

StanCon is next week, Jan 10-12, 2018

January 5, 2018
By

It looks pretty cool! Wednesday, Jan 10 Invited Talk: Predictive information criteria in hierarchical Bayesian models for clustered data. Sophia Rabe-Hesketh and Daniel Furr (U California, Berkely) 10:40-11:30am Does the New York City Police Department rely on quotas? Jonathan Auerbach (Columbia U) 11:30-11:50am Bayesian estimation of mechanical elastic constants. Ben Bales, Brent Goodlet, Tresa Pollock, […] The post StanCon is next week, Jan 10-12, 2018 appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

Read more »

Intelligence has always been artificial or at least artefactual.

January 4, 2018
By

I (Keith O’Rourke) thought I would revisit a post of Andrew’s on artificial intelligence (AI) and statistics. The main point seemed to be that “AI can be improved using long-established statistical principles. Or, to put it another way, that long-established statistical principles can be made more useful through AI techniques.” The point(s) I will try […] The post Intelligence has always been artificial or at least artefactual. appeared first on…

Read more »

Big cdata News

January 4, 2018
By
Big cdata News

I have some big news about our R package cdata. We have greatly improved the calling interface and Nina Zumel has just written the definitive introduction to cdata. cdata is our general coordinatized data tool. It is what powers the deep learning performance graph (here demonstrated with R and Keras) that I announced a while … Continue reading Big cdata News

Read more »

How is science like the military? They are politically extreme yet vital to the nation

January 4, 2018
By

I was thinking recently about two subcultures in the United States, public or quasi-public institutions that are central to our country’s power, and which politically and socially are distant both from each other and from much of the mainstream of American society. The two institutions I’m thinking of are science and the military, both of […] The post How is science like the military? They are politically extreme yet vital…

Read more »

Stopping rules and Bayesian analysis

January 4, 2018
By

This is an old one but i think there still may be interest in the topic. In this post, I explain how to think about stopping rules in Bayesian inference and why, from a Bayesian standpoint, it’s not cheating to run an experiment until you get statistical significance and then stop. If the topic interests […] The post Stopping rules and Bayesian analysis appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

Le Monde puzzle [#1036]

January 3, 2018
By
Le Monde puzzle [#1036]

An arithmetic Le Monde mathematical puzzle to conclude 2017: Find (a¹,…,a¹³), a permutation of (1,…,13) such that a¹/a²+a³=a²+a³/a³+a⁴+a⁵=b¹<1 a⁶/a⁶+a⁷=a⁶+a⁷/a⁷+a⁸+a⁹=a⁷+a⁸+a⁹/a⁵+a⁹+a¹⁰=b²<1 a¹¹+a¹²/a¹²+a¹³=a¹²+a¹³/a¹³+a¹⁰=b³<1 The question can be solved by brute force simulation, checking all possible permutations of (1,…,13). But 13! is 6.6 trillion, a wee bit too many cases. Despite the problem being made of only four constraints […]

Read more »

Now, Andy did you hear about this one?

January 3, 2018
By
Now, Andy did you hear about this one?

We drank a toast to innocence, we drank a toast to now. We tried to reach beyond the emptiness but neither one knew how. – Kiki and Herb Well I hope you all ended your 2017 with a bang.  Mine went out on a long-haul flight crying so hard at a French AIDS drama that […] The post Now, Andy did you hear about this one? appeared first on Statistical…

Read more »

I’m with Errol: On flypaper, photography, science, and storytelling

January 3, 2018
By

[image of a cat going after an insect] I’ve been reading this amazing book, Believing is Seeing: Observations on the Mysteries of Photography, by Errol Morris, who, like John Waters, is a pathbreaking filmmaker who is also an excellent writer. I recommend this book, but what I want to talk about here is one particular […] The post I’m with Errol: On flypaper, photography, science, and storytelling appeared first on…

Read more »

The top 10 posts from The DO Loop in 2017

January 3, 2018
By
The top 10 posts from The DO Loop in 2017

I wrote more than 100 posts for The DO Loop blog in 2017. The most popular articles were about SAS programming tips, statistical data analysis, and simulation and bootstrap methods. Here are the most popular articles from 2017 in each category. General SAS programming techniques INTCK and INTNX: Do you [...] The post The top 10 posts from <em>The DO Loop</em> in 2017 appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

correlation for maximal coupling

January 2, 2018
By
correlation for maximal coupling

An interesting (if vaguely formulated) question on X validated: given two Gaussian variates that are maximally coupled, what is the correlation between these variates? The answer depends on the parameters of both Gaussian, with a correlation of one when both Gaussians are identical. Answering the question by simulation (as I could not figure out the […]

Read more »

Econometrics Reading for the New Year

January 2, 2018
By
Econometrics Reading for the New Year

Another year, and lots of exciting reading!Davidson, R. & V. Zinde-Walsh, 2017. Advances in specification testing. Canadian Journal of Economics, online.Dias, G. F. & G. Kapetanios, 2018. Estimation and forecasting in vector autoregressive movi...

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe