Stan Weekly Roundup, 3 August 2017

August 4, 2017
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You’d almost think we were Europeans based on how much we’ve slowed down over the summer. Imad Ali, Jonah Gabry, and Ben Goodrich finished the online pkgdown-style documentation for all the Stan Development Team supported R packages. They can be accessed via http://mc-stan.org/(package_name), e.g., rstan: http://mc-stan.org/rstan rstanarm: http://mc-stan.org/rstanarm shinystan: http://mc-stan.org/shinytan loo: http://mc-stan.org/loo bayesplot: http://mc-stan.org/bayesplot The […] The post Stan Weekly Roundup, 3 August 2017 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Let’s Have Some Sympathy For The Part-time R User

August 4, 2017
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Let’s Have Some Sympathy For The Part-time R User

When I started writing about methods for better "parametric programming" interfaces for dplyr for R dplyr users in December of 2016 I encountered three divisions in the audience: dplyr users who had such a need, and wanted such extensions. dplyr users who did not have such a need ("we always know the column names"). dplyr … Continue reading Let’s Have Some Sympathy For The Part-time R User

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PPNAS again: If it hadn’t been for the jet lag, would Junior have banged out 756 HRs in his career?

August 4, 2017
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In an email with subject line, “Difference between “significant” and “not significant”: baseball edition?”, Greg Distelhorst writes: I think it’s important to improve statistical practice in the social sciences. I also care about baseball. In this PNAS article, Table 1 and the discussion of differences between east vs. west and home vs. away effects do […] The post PPNAS again: If it hadn’t been for the jet lag, would Junior…

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Visualizing electoral college politics: exercise in displaying relationships between variables

August 3, 2017
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Visualizing electoral college politics: exercise in displaying relationships between variables

Kaiser Fung, founder of Junk Charts and Principal Analytics Prep, a next-gen data analytics bootcamp, shows how to portray complex multivariate relationships using electoral college politics as an example.

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It’s hard to know what to say about an observational comparison that doesn’t control for key differences between treatment and control groups, chili pepper edition

August 3, 2017
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Jonathan Falk points to this article and writes: Thoughts? I would have liked to have seen the data matched on age, rather than simply using age in a Cox regression, since I suspect that’s what really going on here. The non-chili eaters were much older, and I suspect that the failure to interact age, or […] The post It’s hard to know what to say about an observational comparison that…

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Seemingly intuitive and low math intros to Bayes never seem to deliver as hoped: Why?

August 2, 2017
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This post was prompted by recent nicely done videos by Rasmus Baath that provide an intuitive and low math introduction to Bayesian material. Now, I do not know that these have delivered less than he hoped for. Nor I have asked him. However, given similar material I and others have tried out in the past that […] The post Seemingly intuitive and low math intros to Bayes never seem to deliver…

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Giving feedback indirectly by invoking a hypothetical reviewer

August 2, 2017
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Ethan Bolker points us to this discussion on “How can I avoid being “the negative one” when giving feedback on statistics?”, which begins: Results get sent around a group of biological collaborators for feedback. Comments come back from the senior members of the group about the implications of the results, possible extensions, etc. I look […] The post Giving feedback indirectly by invoking a hypothetical reviewer appeared first on Statistical…

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Dimension reduction: Guidelines for retaining principal components

August 2, 2017
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Dimension reduction: Guidelines for retaining principal components

Last week I blogged about the broken-stick problem in probability, which reminded me that the broken-stick model is one of the many techniques that have been proposed for choosing the number of principal components to retain during a principal component analysis. Recall that for a principal component analysis (PCA) of [...] The post Dimension reduction: Guidelines for retaining principal components appeared first on The DO Loop.

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“Explaining recent mortality trends among younger and middle-aged White Americans”

August 2, 2017
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Kevin Lewis sends along this paper by Ryan Masters, Andrea Tilstra, and Daniel Simon, who write: Recent research has suggested that increases in mortality among middle-aged US Whites are being driven by suicides and poisonings from alcohol and drug use. Increases in these ‘despair’ deaths have been argued to reflect a cohort-based epidemic of pain […] The post “Explaining recent mortality trends among younger and middle-aged White Americans” appeared first…

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The fractal zealots

August 1, 2017
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Paul Alper points to this news report by Ian Sample, which goes: Psychologists believe they can identify progressive changes in work of artists who went on to develop Alzheimer’s disease The first subtle hints of cognitive decline may reveal themselves in an artist’s brush strokes many years before dementia is diagnosed, researchers believe. . . […] The post The fractal zealots appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Know your data 21: another example of data sleaze, straight from your home

August 1, 2017
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Kaiser Fung, founder of Principal Analytics Prep and author of Numbersense, reacts to the news that Roomba captures detailed maps of people's homes.

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My August Reading List

July 31, 2017
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My August Reading List

Here are some suggestions for you:Calzolari, G., 2017. Econometrics exams and round numbers: Use or misuse of indirect estimation methods? Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, in press.Chakraborti, S., F. Jardim, & E. Epprecht...

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Letter to the Editor of Perspectives on Psychological Science

July 31, 2017
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[relevant cat picture] tl;dr: Himmicane in a teacup. Back in the day, the New Yorker magazine did not have a Letters to the Editors column, and so the great Spy magazine (the Gawker of its time) ran its own feature, Letters to the Editor of the New Yorker, where they posted the letters you otherwise […] The post Letter to the Editor of Perspectives on Psychological Science appeared first on…

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Reproducing biological research is harder than you’d think

July 31, 2017
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Mark Tuttle points us to this news article by Monya Baker and Elie Dolgin, which goes as follows: Cancer reproducibility project releases first results An open-science effort to replicate dozens of cancer-biology studies is off to a confusing start. Purists will tell you that science is about what scientists don’t know, which is true but […] The post Reproducing biological research is harder than you’d think appeared first on Statistical…

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Flip it. Flip it good.

July 31, 2017
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Flip it. Flip it good.

A SAS user needed to convert a program from MATLAB into the SAS/IML matrix language and asked whether there is a SAS/IML equivalent to the fliplr and flipud functions in MATLAB. These functions flip the columns or rows (respectively) of a matrix; "LR" stands for "left-right" and "UD" stands for [...] The post Flip it. Flip it good. appeared first on The DO Loop.

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What mathematicians do

July 31, 2017
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What mathematicians do

What do mathematicians do? We ask children what mathematicians do, and the answers include, “they do mathematics”, “they get things right”, and “they answer questions.” Hmm. Recently in guest workshops I asked about 120 pre-service primary/elementary teachers how many see … Continue reading →

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It’s not “lying” exactly . . . What do you call it when someone deliberately refuses to correct an untruth?

July 30, 2017
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New York Times columnist Bret Stephens tells the story. First the background: On Thursday I interviewed Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo on a public stage . . . There was one sour moment. Midway through the interview, Pompeo abruptly slammed The New York Times for publishing the name last month of a senior covert […] The post It’s not “lying” exactly . . . What do you call it…

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Regression Discontinuity and Event Studies in Time Series

July 30, 2017
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Check out the new paper, "Regression Discontinuity in Time [RDiT]: Considerations for Empirical Applications", by Catherine Hausman and David S. Rapson.  (NBER Working Paper No. 23602, July 2017.  Ungated copy here.) It's interesting in ...

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Iceland education gene trend kangaroo

July 30, 2017
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Someone who works in genetics writes: You may have seen the recent study in PNAS about genetic prediction of educational attainment in Iceland. the authors report in a very concerned fashion that every generation the attainment of education as predicted from genetics decreases by 0.1 standard deviations. This sounds bad. But consider that the University […] The post Iceland education gene trend kangaroo appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Matching, Optimal Transport and Statistical Tests

July 30, 2017
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Matching, Optimal Transport and Statistical Tests

To explain the “optimal transport” problem, we usually start with Gaspard Monge’s “Mémoire sur la théorie des déblais et des remblais“, where the the problem of transporting a given distribution of matter (a pile of sand for instance) into another (an excavation for instance). This problem is usually formulated using distributions, and we seek the “optimal” transport from one distribution to the other one. The formulation, in the context of…

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Forecasting workshop in Perth

Forecasting workshop in Perth

On 26-28 September 2017, I will be running my 3-day workshop in Perth on “Forecasting: principles and practice” based on my book of the same name. Topics to be covered include seasonality and trends, exponential smoothing, ARIMA modelling, ...

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Forecasting workshop in Perth

Forecasting workshop in Perth

On 26-28 September 2017, I will be running my 3-day workshop in Perth on “Forecasting: principles and practice” based on my book of the same name. Topics to be covered include seasonality and trends, exponential smoothing, ARIMA modelling, ...

Read more »

More documentation for Win-Vector R packages

July 29, 2017
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More documentation for Win-Vector R packages

The Win-Vector public R packages now all have new pkgdown documentation sites! (And, a thank-you to Hadley Wickham for developing the pkgdown tool.) Please check them out (hint: vtreat is our favorite). The package sites: cdata replyr seplyr sigr vtre...

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