Statistics

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Bayes theorem in real life

August 27, 2015
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Bayes theorem in real life

I had a chance to practice Bayesian inference in real life today: at 1pm my wife called to tell me that the carbon monoxide (CO) alarm at the house was going off.  Immediately two hypotheses came to mind: (1) there is a dangerous amount of CO in m...

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Biased Estimation of Marginal Effects

August 26, 2015
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Biased Estimation of Marginal Effects

I began a recent post with the comment:"One thing that a lot of practitioners seem to be unaware of (or they choose to ignore it) is that in many of the common situations where we use regression analysis to estimate elasticities, these e...

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Christensen on Term Structure Modeling at EUI

August 26, 2015
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Jens Christensen will give a Euro-Area Business Cycle Network three-day course at EUI, September 7-9. Jens is fantastic. Plus it's Florence in early September. It's not too late to register!Course SyllabusRecommended Reading ListCourse ScheduleLis...

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The Distribution of a Ratio of Correlated Normals

August 25, 2015
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The Distribution of a Ratio of Correlated Normals

Suppose that the random variables X1 and X2 are jointly distributed as bivariate Normal, with means of θ1 and θ2, variances of σ12 and σ22 respectively, and a correlation coefficient of ρ.In this post we're going to be looking at the distribution ...

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The Bias of Certain Elasticity Estimators

August 24, 2015
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The Bias of Certain Elasticity Estimators

In a recent post I discussed some aspects of estimating elasticities from regression models, and the interpretation of these values. That discussion should be kept in mind in reading what follows.One thing that a lot of practitioners seem to be unaware...

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3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2012): MEMORY LANE

August 24, 2015
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3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2012): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago… MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: August 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one (there are 4 U-Phils on Wasserman this time). Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, […]

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Statbusters: To divide or not to divide by 365

August 24, 2015
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In the newest column for the Daily Beast, Andrew and I look at the media's fascination with expressing large numbers as daily numbers. (link) In short, you should divide by 365 only when the metric actually scales with time, and be careful if the metric is not evenly distributed across time. We discuss the following headlines: "Air pollution is China is killing 4,000 per day" and "Periscope users view 40…

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From Quantity to Quality

August 24, 2015
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From Quantity to Quality

Open Data is a much-debated topic and – since the Obama administration launched Data.gov on May 21, 2009 – an international …Continue reading →

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The Superiority of Economists

August 24, 2015
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The title of this post is the title of a newish paper by Marion Fourcade (Berkeley), Etienne Ollion (Strasbourg), and Yann Algan (Sciences Po, Paris) (FOA). Yes, I know FOA is already published, even insightfully...

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Data frames and tables in Scala

August 21, 2015
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Data frames and tables in Scala

Introduction To statisticians and data scientists used to working in R, the concept of a data frame is one of the most natural and basic starting points for statistical computing and data analysis. It always surprises me that data frames aren’t a core concept in most programming languages’ standard libraries, since they are essentially a … Continue reading Data frames and tables in Scala

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