Category: Statistics

Isogeny-based encryption

If and when large quantum computers become practical, all currently widely deployed method for public key cryptography will break. Even the most optimistic proponents of quantum computing believe such computers are years away, maybe decades. But it also takes years, maybe decades, to develop, test, and deploy new encryption methods, and so researchers are working […]

Claims about excess road deaths on “4/20” don’t add up

Sam Harper writes: Since you’ve written about similar papers (that recent NRA study in NEJM, the birthday analysis) before and we linked to a few of your posts, I thought you might be interested in this recent blog post we wrote about a similar kind of study claiming that fatal motor vehicle crashes increase by 12% after 4:20pm […]

haunting of tramcar 105 [book review]

A mix of steampunk and urban magic in a enlightened 1912 Cairo sounded like a good prolegomena and I bought P. Djèli Clark’s The haunting of tram car 015 on this basis. As it happens, this is actually a novella of 123 pages building on the same universe as a previous work of the author, […]

A question about the piranha problem as it applies to A/B testing

Wicaksono Wijono writes: While listening to your seminar about the piranha problem a couple weeks back, I kept thinking about a similar work situation but in the opposite direction. I’d be extremely grateful if you share your thoughts. So the piranha problem is stated as “There can be some large and predictable effects on behavior, […]

Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen

I’ll continue to post Neyman-related items this week in honor of his birthday. This isn’t the only paper in which Neyman makes it clear he denies a distinction between a test of  statistical hypotheses and significance tests. He and E. Pearson also discredit the myth that the former is only allowed to report pre-data, fixed error probabilities, and are […]

Calling Python from Mathematica

The Mathematica function ExternalEvalute lets you call Python from Mathematica. However, there are a few wrinkles. I first pasted in an example from the Mathematica documentation and it failed. ExternalEvaluate[ “Python”, {“def f(x): return x**2”, “f(3)”} ] It turns out you (may) have to tell Mathematica where to find Python. I ran the following, tried […]

holistic framework for ABC

An AISTATS 2019 paper was recently arXived by Kelvin Hsu and Fabio Ramos. Proposing an ABC method “…consisting of (1) a consistent surrogate likelihood model that modularizes queries from simulation calls, (2) a Bayesian learning objective for hyperparameters that improves inference accuracy, and (3) a posterior surrogate density and a super-sampling inference algorithm using its […]

Neyman vs the ‘Inferential’ Probabilists

We celebrated Jerzy Neyman’s Birthday (April 16, 1894) last night in our seminar: here’s a pic of the cake.  My entry today is a brief excerpt and a link to a paper of his that we haven’t discussed much on this blog: Neyman, J. (1962), ‘Two Breakthroughs in the Theory of Statistical Decision Making‘ [i] […]

Le Monde puzzle [#1092]

A Latin square Le Monde mathematical puzzle that I found rather dreary: A hidden 3×3 board contains all numbers from 1 to 9. Anselm wants to guess the board and makes two proposals. Berenicke tells him how many entries are in the right rows and colums for each proposal, along with the information that no […]

bandits for doubly intractable posteriors

Last Friday, Guanyang Wang arXived a paper on the use of multi-armed bandits (hence the reference to the three bandits) to handle intractable normalising constants. The bandit compares or mixes Møller et al. (2006) auxiliary variable solution with Murray et al. (2006) exchange algorithm. Which are both special cases of pseudo-marginal MCMC algorithms. In both […]