Statistics

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Les sondages avaient tout faux en 2016? Ah bon?

February 22, 2017
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Les sondages avaient tout faux en 2016? Ah bon?

Allez, un dernier billet sur les sondages, d’autant plus que le débat de demain soir devrait porter (plus spécifiquement) sur les faillites sur sondages anglais et américains, de 2016. Alors comme ça les sondages seraient “faux” ? Je n’aime pas cette terminologie. J’ai l’impression que la confusion vient en grande partie du fait qu’on analyse, au final, un vote aux élection comme un référendum. C’est pour ça qu’on a tendance…

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The Zero Bug

February 21, 2017
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The Zero Bug

I am going to write about an insidious statistical, data analysis, and presentation fallacy I call “the zero bug” and the habits you need to cultivate to avoid it. The zero bug Here is the zero bug in a nutshell: common data aggregation tools often can not “count to zero” from examples, and this causes … Continue reading The Zero Bug

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Coming soon!

February 21, 2017
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Coming soon!

We've just received a picture of the cover of the BCEA book, which is really, really close to being finally published!I did mention this in a few other posts (for example here and here) and it has been in fact a rather long process, so much so tha...

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Déclarer ou révéler, retour sur les sondages

February 20, 2017
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Déclarer ou révéler, retour sur les sondages

Voilà une semaine, je mettais en ligne un court billet “les sondages et le bruit” sur les sondages, et leur biais, en préparation pour une intervention en milieu de semaine, sur Paris. Mais cette semaine, je voulais continuer à assembler mes notes de lecture… Déclarer ou révéler Bon, on va commencer par enfoncer des portes ouvertes, mais il est toujours bon de relire “l’opinion publique n’existe pas” de Bourdieu. Toute…

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Econometrics: Angrist and Pischke are at it Again

February 20, 2017
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Check out the new Angrist-Pischke (AP), "Undergraduate Econometrics Instruction: Through Our Classes, Darkly". I guess I have no choice but to weigh in. The issues are important, and my earlier AP post, "Mostly Harmless Econometrics?", is my all-time m...

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Reading Everything is Obvious by Duncan Watts

February 15, 2017
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Reading Everything is Obvious by Duncan Watts

In his book, Everything is Obvious (Once You Know the Answer): Why Common Sense Fails, Duncan Watts, a professor of sociology at Columbia, imparts urgent lessons that are as relevant to his students as to self-proclaimed data scientists. It takes only nominal effort to generate narrative structures that retrace the past, Watts contends, but developing lasting theory that produces valid predictions requires much more effort than common sense. Watts’s is…

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Educating the heart with maths and statistics

February 14, 2017
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Educating the heart with maths and statistics

What has love got to do with maths? This morning at the Twitter chat for teachers, (#bfc630nz) the discussion question was, How and what will you teach your students about life this year? As I lurked I was impressed at … Continue reading →

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Predictive Loss vs. Predictive Regret

February 13, 2017
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It's interesting  to contrast two prediction paradigms.A.  The universal statistical/econometric approach to prediction:  Take a stand on a loss function and find/use a predictor that minimizes conditionally expected loss.  Note tha...

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Video Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis, Part 1: What is Bayes?

February 12, 2017
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Video Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis, Part 1: What is Bayes?

This is video one of a three part introduction to Bayesian data analysis aimed at you who isn’t necessarily that well-versed in probability theory but that do know a little bit of programming. I gave a version of this tutorial at the UseR 2015 conf...

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Announcing the wrapr packge for R

February 11, 2017
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Announcing the wrapr packge for R

Recently Dirk Eddelbuettel pointed out that our R function debugging wrappers would be more convenient if they were available in a low-dependency micro package dedicated to little else. Dirk is a very smart person, and like most R users we are deeply in his debt; so we (Nina Zumel and myself) listened and immediately moved … Continue reading Announcing the wrapr packge for R

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