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Julia: Random Number Generator Functions

September 30, 2014
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# In this post I will explore the built in Random Number functions in Julia.# These can be found in the documentation at:# http://docs.julialang.org/en/latest/stdlib/base/#random-numbers# As with most random number generators it is useful to manually #...

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Two hour marathon in 2041

September 30, 2014
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Two hour marathon in 2041

Today Dennis Kimetto ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:02:57, shaving 26 seconds off the previous world record.  That means it's time to check in on the world record progression and update my update from last year of  my article from two year...

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TURF Analysis: A Bad Answer to the Wrong Question

September 29, 2014
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TURF Analysis: A Bad Answer to the Wrong Question

Now that R has a package performing Total Unduplicated Reach and Frequency (TURF) Analysis, it might be a good time to issue a warning to all R users. DON'T DO IT!The technique itself is straight out of media buying from the 1950s. Given some number of...

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It’s time for job application now!

September 29, 2014
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It’s time for job application now!

I collected the following series on applying for faculty positions in 2011, when I was in my second year PhD. Now it’s my turn to apply for jobs. I will share the following useful materials with all you who want to apply for jobs this year. Applying for Jobs: Application Materials Applying for Jobs : […]

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A Mind-Blowing Optimal Prediction Result

September 29, 2014
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A Mind-Blowing Optimal Prediction Result

I concluded my previous post with:Consider, for example, the following folk theorem: "Under asymmetric loss, the optimal prediction is conditionally biased." The folk theorem is false. But how can that be?What's true is this: The conditional mean is th...

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R package for Computational Actuarial Science

September 29, 2014
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A webpage for the book is now hosted on http://cas.uqam.ca/ So far, it is a very basic page, but information regarding the package can be found there. For instance, to install the package, with all the datasets, the R code is > install.packages("CASdatasets", repos = "http://cas.uqam.ca/pub/R/") The reference manual provides a description of all datasets.

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Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)

September 28, 2014
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Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)

So I hear that Diederik Stapel is the co-author of a book Fictionfactory (in Dutch,with a novelist, Dautzenberg)[i], and of what they call their “Fictionfactory peepshow”, only it’s been disinvited at the last minute from a Dutch festival on“truth and reality” (due to have run 9/26/14), and all because of Stapel’s involvement. Here’s an excerpt from an article in last […]

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Recognizing Patterns in the Purchase Process by Following the Pathways Marked By Others

September 28, 2014
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Recognizing Patterns in the Purchase Process by Following the Pathways Marked By Others

Herbert Simon's "ant on the beach" does not search for food in a straight line because the environment is not uniform with pebbles, pools and rough terrain. At least the ant's decision making is confined to the 3-dimensional space defining the beach. C...

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A little something while I’m away

September 26, 2014
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Note: This is cross-posted to both my blogs. I have been on vacation. Regular posts will resume next week. Before then, here is a little something for you. ASA News recently asked me to describe "a day in the life of" a business statistician. My response is here, together with responses by two others. As a statistician, I am worried about describing an "average" day for an "average" statistician. Better…

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Bayesian election forecasting

September 25, 2014
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Bayesian election forecasting

Last week Nate Silver posted this article explaining how the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast model works.  If you are familiar with Silver's work, you probably know that (1) he has been notably successful at predicting outcomes of elections, and (...

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