Blog Archives

“Intentions” is the new code word for “error probabilities”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday

May 27, 2015
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“Intentions” is the new code word for “error probabilities”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday

Today is Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday. Birnbaum’s (1962) classic “On the Foundations of Statistical Inference,” in Breakthroughs in Statistics (volume I 1993), concerns a principle that remains at the heart of today’s controversies in statistics–even if it isn’t obvious at first: the Likelihood Principle (LP) (also called the strong likelihood Principle SLP, to distinguish it from the […]

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From our “Philosophy of Statistics” session: APS 2015 convention

May 25, 2015
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From our “Philosophy of Statistics” session: APS 2015 convention

“The Philosophy of Statistics: Bayesianism, Frequentism and the Nature of Inference,” at the 2015 American Psychological Society (APS) Annual Convention in NYC, May 23, 2015:   D. Mayo: “Error Statistical Control: Forfeit at your Peril”    S. Senn: “‘Repligate’: reproducibility in statistical studies. What does it mean and in what sense does it matter?”   […]

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Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)

May 9, 2015
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Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)

Stephen Senn Head of Competence Center for Methodology and Statistics (CCMS) Luxembourg Institute of Health Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law “But this could be dealt with in a rough empirical way by taking twice the standard error as a criterion for possible genuineness and three times the standard error for definite acceptance”. Harold […]

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Spurious Correlations: Death by getting tangled in bedsheets and the consumption of cheese! (Aris Spanos)

May 5, 2015
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Spurious Correlations: Death by getting tangled in bedsheets and the consumption of cheese! (Aris Spanos)

These days, there are so many dubious assertions about alleged correlations between two variables that an entire website: Spurious Correlation (Tyler Vigen) is devoted to exposing (and creating*) them! A classic problem is that the means of variables X and Y may both be trending in the order data are observed, invalidating the assumption that […]

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96% Error in “Expert” Testimony Based on Probability of Hair Matches: It’s all Junk!

May 1, 2015
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96% Error in “Expert” Testimony Based on Probability of Hair Matches: It’s all Junk!

Imagine. The New York Times reported a few days ago that the FBI erroneously identified criminals 96% of the time based on probability assessments using forensic hair samples (up until 2000). Sometimes the hair wasn’t even human, it might have come from a dog, a cat or a fur coat!  I posted on  the unreliability of hair forensics a few […]

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3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2012): MEMORY LANE

April 28, 2015
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3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2012): MEMORY LANE

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: March 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog* (Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one.) This new feature, appearing the last week of each month, began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014. *excluding those recently reblogged. April […]

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“Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality” by E.S. Pearson

April 24, 2015
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“Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality” by E.S. Pearson

To complete the last post, here’s Pearson’s portion of the “triad”  “Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality” by E.S. PEARSON (1955) SUMMARY: This paper contains a reply to some criticisms made by Sir Ronald Fisher in his recent article on “Scientific Methods and Scientific Induction”. Controversies in the field of mathematical statistics seem largely […]

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NEYMAN: “Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher” (3 uses for power, Fisher’s fiducial argument)

April 22, 2015
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NEYMAN: “Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher” (3 uses for power, Fisher’s fiducial argument)

Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher By Jerzy Neyman (1956) Summary (1) FISHER’S allegation that, contrary to some passages in the introduction and on the cover of the book by Wald, this book does not really deal with experimental design is unfounded. In actual fact, the book is permeated with problems of experimentation.  […]

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Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen

April 18, 2015
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Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen

“Tests of Statistical Hypotheses and Their Use in Studies of Natural Phenomena” by Jerzy Neyman ABSTRACT. Contrary to ideas suggested by the title of the conference at which the present paper was presented, the author is not aware of a conceptual difference between a “test of a statistical hypothesis” and a “test of significance” and uses […]

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A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy

April 16, 2015
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A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy

A Statistical Model as a Chance Mechanism Aris Spanos  Today is the birthday of Jerzy Neyman (April 16, 1894 – August 5, 1981). Neyman was a Polish/American statistician[i] who spent most of his professional career at the University of California, Berkeley. Neyman is best known in statistics for his pioneering contributions in framing the Neyman-Pearson (N-P) […]

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