Blog Archives

Larry Laudan: “When the ‘Not-Guilty’ Falsely Pass for Innocent”, the Frequency of False Acquittals (guest post)

July 3, 2015
By
Larry Laudan: “When the ‘Not-Guilty’ Falsely Pass for Innocent”, the Frequency of False Acquittals (guest post)

Professor Larry Laudan Lecturer in Law and Philosophy University of Texas at Austin “When the ‘Not-Guilty’ Falsely Pass for Innocent” by Larry Laudan While it is a belief deeply ingrained in the legal community (and among the public) that false negatives are much more common than false positives (a 10:1 ratio being the preferred guess), […]

Read more »

Stapel’s Fix for Science? Admit the story you want to tell and how you “fixed” the statistics to support it!

July 1, 2015
By
Stapel’s Fix for Science? Admit the story you want to tell and how you “fixed” the statistics to support it!

Stapel’s “fix” for science is to admit it’s all “fixed!” That recent case of the guy suspected of using faked data for a study on how to promote support for gay marriage in a (retracted) paper, Michael LaCour, is directing a bit of limelight on our star fraudster Diederik Stapel (50+ retractions). The Chronicle of Higher Education just published an article by […]

Read more »

Can You change Your Bayesian prior? (ii)

June 18, 2015
By
Can You change Your Bayesian prior? (ii)

This is one of the questions high on the “To Do” list I’ve been keeping for this blog.  The question grew out of discussions of “updating and downdating” in relation to papers by Stephen Senn (2011) and Andrew Gelman (2011) in Rationality, Markets, and Morals.[i] “As an exercise in mathematics [computing a posterior based on the client’s prior probabilities] […]

Read more »

What Would Replication Research Under an Error Statistical Philosophy Be?

June 4, 2015
By
What Would Replication Research Under an Error Statistical Philosophy Be?

Around a year ago on this blog I wrote: “There are some ironic twists in the way psychology is dealing with its replication crisis that may well threaten even the most sincere efforts to put the field on firmer scientific footing” That’s philosopher’s talk for “I see a rich source of problems that cry out […]

Read more »

“Intentions” is the new code word for “error probabilities”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday

May 27, 2015
By
“Intentions” is the new code word for “error probabilities”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday

Today is Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday. Birnbaum’s (1962) classic “On the Foundations of Statistical Inference,” in Breakthroughs in Statistics (volume I 1993), concerns a principle that remains at the heart of today’s controversies in statistics–even if it isn’t obvious at first: the Likelihood Principle (LP) (also called the strong likelihood Principle SLP, to distinguish it from the […]

Read more »

From our “Philosophy of Statistics” session: APS 2015 convention

May 25, 2015
By
From our “Philosophy of Statistics” session: APS 2015 convention

“The Philosophy of Statistics: Bayesianism, Frequentism and the Nature of Inference,” at the 2015 American Psychological Society (APS) Annual Convention in NYC, May 23, 2015:   D. Mayo: “Error Statistical Control: Forfeit at your Peril”    S. Senn: “‘Repligate’: reproducibility in statistical studies. What does it mean and in what sense does it matter?”   […]

Read more »

Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)

May 9, 2015
By
Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)

Stephen Senn Head of Competence Center for Methodology and Statistics (CCMS) Luxembourg Institute of Health Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law “But this could be dealt with in a rough empirical way by taking twice the standard error as a criterion for possible genuineness and three times the standard error for definite acceptance”. Harold […]

Read more »

Spurious Correlations: Death by getting tangled in bedsheets and the consumption of cheese! (Aris Spanos)

May 5, 2015
By
Spurious Correlations: Death by getting tangled in bedsheets and the consumption of cheese! (Aris Spanos)

These days, there are so many dubious assertions about alleged correlations between two variables that an entire website: Spurious Correlation (Tyler Vigen) is devoted to exposing (and creating*) them! A classic problem is that the means of variables X and Y may both be trending in the order data are observed, invalidating the assumption that […]

Read more »

96% Error in “Expert” Testimony Based on Probability of Hair Matches: It’s all Junk!

May 1, 2015
By
96% Error in “Expert” Testimony Based on Probability of Hair Matches: It’s all Junk!

Imagine. The New York Times reported a few days ago that the FBI erroneously identified criminals 96% of the time based on probability assessments using forensic hair samples (up until 2000). Sometimes the hair wasn’t even human, it might have come from a dog, a cat or a fur coat!  I posted on  the unreliability of hair forensics a few […]

Read more »

3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2012): MEMORY LANE

April 28, 2015
By
3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2012): MEMORY LANE

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: March 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog* (Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one.) This new feature, appearing the last week of each month, began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014. *excluding those recently reblogged. April […]

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe