Blog Archives

Rubbing off, uncertainty, confidence, and Nate Silver

February 13, 2016
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Rubbing off, uncertainty, confidence, and Nate Silver

Nate Silver describes “How we’re forecasting the primaries” using confidence intervals. Never mind that the estimates are a few weeks old, and put entirely to one side any predictions he makes or will make. I’m only interested in this one interpretive portion of the method, as Silver describes it: In our interactive, you’ll see a bunch of funky-looking curves […]

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Philosophy-laden meta-statistics: Is “technical activism” free of statistical philosophy? (ii)

February 3, 2016
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Philosophy-laden meta-statistics: Is “technical activism” free of statistical philosophy? (ii)

  Ben Goldacre (of Bad Science), in a Nature article today (“Make Journals Report Clinical Trials Properly“), expresses puzzlement as to why bad statistical practices– “selective publication, inadequate descriptions of study methods that block efforts at replication, and data dredging through undisclosed use of multiple analytical strategies“–are continuing to occur even in the face of […]

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Philosophy-laden meta-statistics: Is “technical activism” free of statistical philosophy? (ii)

February 3, 2016
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Philosophy-laden meta-statistics: Is “technical activism” free of statistical philosophy? (ii)

  Ben Goldacre (of Bad Science), in a Nature article today (“Make Journals Report Clinical Trials Properly“), expresses puzzlement as to why bad statistical practices– “selective publication, inadequate descriptions of study methods that block efforts at replication, and data dredging through undisclosed use of multiple analytical strategies“–are continuing to occur even in the face of […]

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3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE

January 29, 2016
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3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: January 2013. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog [1].  Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils”(you [readers] philosophize) count as one. It was tough to pick just 3 this month. I’m putting the 2 “U-Phils” in […]

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“On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference,” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (PUBLISHED)

January 12, 2016
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“On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference,” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (PUBLISHED)

The record number of hits on this blog goes to “When Bayesian Inference shatters,” where Houman Owhadi presents a “Plain Jane” explanation of results now published in “On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference”. A follow-up was 1 year ago. Here’s how their paper begins:     Houman Owhadi Professor of Applied and Computational Mathematics and Control and Dynamical Systems, Computing + Mathematical […]

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Preregistration Challenge: My email exchange

January 8, 2016
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Preregistration Challenge: My email exchange

David Mellor, from the Center for Open Science, emailed me asking if I’d announce his Preregistration Challenge on my blog, and I’m glad to do so. You win $1,000 if your properly preregistered paper is published. The recent replication effort in psychology showed, despite the common refrain – “it’s too easy to get low P-values” – that in […]

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Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

December 31, 2015
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Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

 Just as in the past 4 years since I’ve been blogging, I revisit that spot in the road at 11p.m., just outside the Elbar Room, get into a strange-looking taxi, and head to “Midnight With Birnbaum”. (The pic on the left is the only blurry image I have of the club I’m taken to.) I wonder […]

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3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

December 26, 2015
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3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: December 2012. I am to mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog [1]. However, posts that are part of a “unit” or group of posts count as one, so I’m not really cheating with the 5 in red. The items in the “green” group can’t […]

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Gelman on ‘Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper’

December 17, 2015
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Gelman on ‘Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper’

  I’m reblogging Gelman’s post today: “Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper”. I concur with Gelman’s arguments against all Bayesian “inductive support” philosophies, and welcome the Gelman and Shalizi (2013) ‘meeting of the minds’ between an error statistical philosophy and Bayesian falsification (which I regard as a kind of error statistical Bayesianism). […]

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Stephen Senn: The pathetic P-value (Guest Post) [3]

December 13, 2015
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Stephen Senn: The pathetic P-value (Guest Post) [3]

Stephen Senn Head of Competence Center for Methodology and Statistics (CCMS) Luxembourg Institute of Health The pathetic P-value* [3] This is the way the story is now often told. RA Fisher is the villain. Scientists were virtuously treading the Bayesian path, when along came Fisher and gave them P-values, which they gladly accepted, because they […]

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