Rudy Banerjee writes: I am trying to use the Besag, York & Mollie 1991 (BYM) model to study the sociology of crime and space/time plays a vital role. Since many of the variables and parameters are discrete in nature is it possible to develop a BYM that uses an Integer Auto-regressive (INAR) process instead of […]
Megan McArdle writes: I have a friend with a probability problem I don’t know how to solve. He’s 37 and just keeled over with sudden cardiac arrest, and is trying to figure out how to assess the probability that he has a given condition as his doctors work through his case. He knows I’ve been […]
“If you will believe in your heart and confess with your lips, surely you will be saved one day” – The Mountain Goats paraphrasing Romans 10:9 One of the weird things about working with people a lot is that it doesn’t always translate into multiple opportunities to see them talk. I’m pretty sure the only […]
This is big news. Thanks to RStudio, you can now run Stan effortlessly on the web. So you can get started on Stan without any investment in set-up time, no need to install C++ on your computer, etc. As Ben Goodrich writes, “RStudio Cloud is particularly useful for Stan tutorials where a lot of time […]
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Matthijs Vákár writes: Re the popularity of functional programming and Church-style languages in the programming languages community: there is a strong sentiment in that community that functional programming provides important high-level primitives that make it easy to write correct programs. This is because functional code tends to be very short and easy to reason about […]
Hugo Bowne-Anderson interviewed me for a DataCamp podcast. Transcript is here.
The post Podcast interview on polling (mostly), also some Bayesian stuff appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
We’re speaking here not of Bayesianism as a religion but of the use of Bayesian inference to assess or validate the evidence regarding religious belief, in short, the probability that God !=0 or the probability that the Pope is Catholic or, as Tyler Cowen put it, the probability that Lutheranism is true. As a statistician […]
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Margaret Evans sends in this cool job ad: Two-Year Post Doctoral Fellowship in Forest Ecological Forecasting, Data Assimilation A post-doctoral fellowship is available in the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research (University of Arizona) to work on an NSF Macrosystems Biology-funded project assimilating together tree-ring and forest inventory data to analyze patterns and drivers of forest productivity […]
Yes, you can learn a lot from N=1, as long as you have some auxiliary information. The other day I was talking with a friend who’s planning to vote for Andrew Cuomo in the primary. What about Cynthia Nixon? My friend wasn’t even considering voting for her. Now, my friend is, I think, in the […]
Shreeharsh Kelkar writes: As a regular reader of your blog, I wanted to ask you if you had taken a look at the recent debate about growth mindset [see earlier discussions here and here] that happened on theconversation.com. Here’s the first salvo by Brooke McNamara, and then the response by Carol Dweck herself. The debate […]