Blog Archives

Stan on the beach

May 27, 2016
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Stan on the beach

This came in the email one day: We have used the great software Stan to estimate bycatch levels of common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) in the Bay of Biscay from stranding data. We found that official estimates are underestimated by a full order of magnitude. We conducted both a prior and likelihood sensitivity analyses : the […] The post Stan on the beach appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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When doing causal inference, define your treatment decision and then consider the consequences that flow from it

May 26, 2016
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Danielle Fumia writes: I am a research at the Washington State Institute for Public Policy, and I work on research estimating the effect of college attendance on earnings. Many studies that examine the effect of attending college on earnings control for college degree receipt and work experience. These models seem to violate the practice you […] The post When doing causal inference, define your treatment decision and then consider the…

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“99.60% for women and 99.58% for men, P < 0.05.”

May 26, 2016
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“99.60% for women and 99.58% for men, P < 0.05.”

Gur Huberman pointed me to this paper by Tamar Kricheli-Katz and Tali Regev, “How many cents on the dollar? Women and men in product markets.” It appeared in something called ScienceAdvances, which seems to be some extension of the Science brand, i.e., it’s in the tabloids! I’ll leave the critical analysis of this paper to […] The post “99.60% for women and 99.58% for men, P < 0.05.” appeared first…

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The difference between “significant” and “not significant” is not itself statistically significant: Education edition

May 25, 2016
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The difference between “significant” and “not significant” is not itself statistically significant:  Education edition

In a news article entitled “Why smart kids shouldn’t use laptops in class,” Jeff Guo writes: For the past 15 years, educators have debated, exhaustively, the perils of laptops in the lecture hall. . . . Now there is an answer, thanks to a big, new experiment from economists at West Point, who randomly banned […] The post The difference between “significant” and “not significant” is not itself statistically significant:…

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Annals of really pitiful spammers

May 25, 2016
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Here it is: On May 18, 2016, at 8:38 AM, ** wrote: Dr. Gelman, I hope all is well. I looked at your paper on [COMPANY] and would be very interested in talking about having a short followup or a review article about this published in the next issue of the Medical Research Archives. It […] The post Annals of really pitiful spammers appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Here’s something I know nothing about

May 24, 2016
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Paul Campos writes: Does it seem at all plausible that, as per the CDC, rates of smoking among people with GED certificates are double those among high school dropouts and high school graduates? My reply: It does seem a bit odd, but I don’t know who gets GED’s. There could be correlations with age and […] The post Here’s something I know nothing about appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Albedo-boy is back!

May 24, 2016
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Albedo-boy is back!

New story here. Background here and here. The post Albedo-boy is back! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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“Lots of hype around pea milk, with little actual scrutiny”

May 23, 2016
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Paul Alper writes: Had no idea that “Pea Milk” existed, let alone controversial. Learn something new every day. Indeed, I’d never heard of it either. I guess “milk” is now a generic word for any white sugary drink? Sort of like “tea” is a generic word for any drink made from a powder steeped in […] The post “Lots of hype around pea milk, with little actual scrutiny” appeared first…

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Splitsville for Thiel and Kasparov?

May 23, 2016
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The tech zillionaire and the chess champion were always a bit of an odd couple, and I’ve felt for awhile that it was just as well that they never finished that book they were talking about. But given that each of them has taken a second career in political activism, I can’t imagine that they’re […] The post Splitsville for Thiel and Kasparov? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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On deck this week

May 23, 2016
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Mon: Splitsville for Thiel and Kasparov? Tues: Here’s something I know nothing about Wed: The “power pose” of the 6th century B.C. Thurs: “99.60% for women and 99.58% for men, P < 0.05.” Fri: Stan on the beach Sat: Michael Lacour vs John Bargh and Amy Cuddy Sun: Should he major in political science and […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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