Blog Archives

Recently in the sister blog

July 1, 2015
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Recently in the sister blog

When is the death penalty okay? A court with no Protestants How much does advertising matter in presidential elections? Bartenders are Democrats, beer wholesalers are Republicans The ambiguity of racial categories No, public opinion is not driven by ‘unreasoning bias and emotion’ Political science: Who is it for? Modern campaigning has big effects on voter […] The post Recently in the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Where does Mister P draw the line?

June 30, 2015
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Bill Harris writes: Mr. P is pretty impressive, but I’m not sure how far to push him in particular and MLM [multilevel modeling] in general. Mr. P and MLM certainly seem to do well with problems such as eight schools, radon, or the Xbox survey. In those cases, one can make reasonable claims that the […] The post Where does Mister P draw the line? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Hey, this is what Michael Lacour should’ve done when they asked him for his data

June 30, 2015
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Texas Town Is Charging Us $79,000 for Emails About Pool Party Abuse Cop. FOIA that, pal! The post Hey, this is what Michael Lacour should’ve done when they asked him for his data appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Socia...

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A note from John Lott

June 29, 2015
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The other day, I wrote: It’s been nearly 20 years since the last time there was a high-profile report of a social science survey that turned out to be undocumented. I’m referring to the case of John Lott, who said he did a survey on gun use in 1997, but, in the words of Wikipedia, […] The post A note from John Lott appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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God is in every leaf of every probability puzzle

June 29, 2015
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Radford shared with us this probability puzzle of his from 1999: A couple you’ve just met invite you over to dinner, saying “come by around 5pm, and we can talk for a while before our three kids come home from school at 6pm”. You arrive at the appointed time, and are invited into the house. […] The post God is in every leaf of every probability puzzle appeared first on…

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On deck this week

June 29, 2015
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Mon: God is in every leaf of every probability puzzle Tues: Where does Mister P draw the line? Wed: Recently in the sister blog Thurs: Humility needed in decision-making Fri: “Why should anyone believe that? Why does it make sense to model a series of astronomical events as though they were spins of a roulette […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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What’s So Fun About Fake Data?

June 28, 2015
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Our first Daily Beast column is here. The post What’s So Fun About Fake Data? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Interpreting posterior probabilities in the context of weakly informative priors

June 28, 2015
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Nathan Lemoine writes: I’m an ecologist, and I typically work with small sample sizes from field experiments, which have highly variable data. I analyze almost all of my data now using hierarchical models, but I’ve been wondering about my interpretation of the posterior distributions. I’ve read your blog, several of your papers (Gelman and Weakliem, […] The post Interpreting posterior probabilities in the context of weakly informative priors appeared first…

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“Faith means belief in something concerning which doubt is theoretically possible.” — William James (again)

June 27, 2015
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Eric Tassone writes: So, here’s a Bill James profile from late-ish 2014 that I’d missed until now. It’s baseball focused, which was nice — so many recent articles about him are non-baseball stuff. Here’s an extended excerpt of a part I found refreshing, though it’s probably just that my expectations have gotten pretty low of […] The post “Faith means belief in something concerning which doubt is theoretically possible.” —…

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Sam Smith sings like a dream but he’s as clueless as Nicholas Wade when it comes to genetics

June 26, 2015
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Psychologists speak of “folk psychology” or “folk physics” as the intuitive notions we have about the world, which typically describe some aspects of reality but ultimately are gross oversimplifications. I encountered a good example of “folk genetics” the other day after following the clickbait link to “22 Things We Learned Hanging Out With Sam Smith”: […] The post Sam Smith sings like a dream but he’s as clueless as Nicholas…

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