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Cognitive vs. behavioral in psychology, economics, and political science

January 30, 2015
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I’ve been coming across these issues from several different directions lately, and I wanted to get the basic idea down without killing myself in the writing of it. So consider this a sketchy first draft. The starting point is “behavioral economics,” also known as the “heuristics and biases” subfield of cognitive psychology. It’s associated with […] The post Cognitive vs. behavioral in psychology, economics, and political science appeared first on…

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Six quick tips to improve your regression modeling

January 29, 2015
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It’s Appendix A of ARM: A.1. Fit many models Think of a series of models, starting with the too-simple and continuing through to the hopelessly messy. Generally it’s a good idea to start simple. Or start complex if you’d like, but prepare to quickly drop things out and move to the simpler model to help […] The post Six quick tips to improve your regression modeling appeared first on Statistical…

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First day of class update

January 29, 2015
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I got to class on time. The class went ok but I spent too much time talking, which is what happens when I don’t put a lot of effort ahead of time into making sure I don’t spend too much time talking. My first-day-of-class activity was ok but I think I needed another activity for […] The post First day of class update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Just in case

January 28, 2015
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Hi, R. Could you please prepare 50 handouts of the attached draft course plan (2-sided printing is fine) to hand out to students? I prefer to do this online but it sounds like there’s some difficulty with that, so we can do handouts on this first day of class. Also: My Amtrak is rescheduled and […] The post Just in case appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Just in case

January 28, 2015
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Hi, R. Could you please prepare 50 handouts of the attached draft course plan (2-sided printing is fine) to hand out to students? I prefer to do this online but it sounds like there’s some difficulty with that, so we can do handouts on this first day of class. Also: My Amtrak is rescheduled and […] The post Just in case appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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About a zillion people pointed me to yesterday’s xkcd cartoon

January 27, 2015
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About a zillion people pointed me to yesterday’s xkcd cartoon

I have the same problem with Bayes factors, for example this: and this: (which I copied from Wikipedia, except that, unlike you-know-who, I didn’t change the n’s to d’s and remove the superscripting). Either way, I don’t buy the numbers, and I certainly don’t buy the words that go with them. I do admit, though, […] The post About a zillion people pointed me to yesterday’s xkcd cartoon appeared first…

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Crowdsourcing data analysis: Do soccer referees give more red cards to dark skin toned players?

January 27, 2015
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Raphael Silberzahn Eric Luis Uhlmann Dan Martin Pasquale Anselmi Frederik Aust Eli Christopher Awtrey Štěpán Bahník Feng Bai Colin Bannard Evelina Bonnier Rickard Carlsson Felix Cheung Garret Christensen Russ Clay Maureen A. Craig Anna Dalla Rosa Lammertjan Dam Mathew H. Evans Ismael Flores Cervantes Nathan Fong Monica Gamez-Djokic Andreas Glenz Shauna Gordon-McKeon Tim Heaton Karin […] The post Crowdsourcing data analysis: Do soccer referees give more red cards to dark…

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“It is perhaps merely an accident of history that skeptics and subjectivists alike strain on the gnat of the prior distribution while swallowing the camel that is the likelihood”

January 27, 2015
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I recently bumped into this 2013 paper by Christian Robert and myself, “‘Not Only Defended But Also Applied': The Perceived Absurdity of Bayesian Inference,” which begins: Younger readers of this journal may not be fully aware of the passionate battles over Bayesian inference among statisticians in the last half of the twentieth century. During this […] The post “It is perhaps merely an accident of history that skeptics and subjectivists…

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“The Statistical Crisis in Science”: My talk this Thurs at the Harvard psychology department

January 26, 2015
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Noon Thursday, January 29, 2015, in William James Hall 765 room 1: The Statistical Crisis in Science Andrew Gelman, Dept of Statistics and Dept of Political Science, Columbia University Top journals in psychology routinely publish ridiculous, scientifically implausible claims, justified based on “p < 0.05.” And this in turn calls into question all sorts of […] The post “The Statistical Crisis in Science”: My talk this Thurs at the Harvard…

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The (hypothetical) phase diagram of a statistical or computational method

January 26, 2015
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The (hypothetical) phase diagram of a statistical or computational method

So here’s the deal. You have a new idea, call it method C, and you try it out on problems X, Y, and Z and it works well—it destroys the existing methods A and B. And then you publish a paper with the pithy title, Method C Wins. And, hey, since we’re fantasizing here anyway, […] The post The (hypothetical) phase diagram of a statistical or computational method appeared first…

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