Blog Archives

Publication bias occurs within as well as between projects

August 30, 2016
By

Kent Holsinger points to this post by Kevin Drum entitled, “Publication Bias Is Boring. You Should Care About It Anyway,” and writes: I am an evolutionary biologist, not a psychologist, but this article describes a disturbing Scenario concerning oxytocin research that seems plausible. It is also relevant to the reproducibility/publishing issues you have been discussing […] The post Publication bias occurs within as well as between projects appeared first on…

Read more »

Evaluating election forecasts

August 30, 2016
By

Nadia Hassan writes: Nate Silver did a review of pre-election predictions from forecasting models in 2012. The overall results were not great, but many scholars noted that some models seemed to do quite well. You mentioned that you were interested in how top-notch models fare. Nate agreed that some were better, but he raised the […] The post Evaluating election forecasts appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

Read more »

Birthdays and heat waves

August 29, 2016
By

I mentioned the birthdays example in a talk the other day, and Hal Varian pointed me to some research by David Lam and Jeffrey Miron, papers from the 1990s with titles like Seasonality of Births in Human Populations, The Effect of Temperature on Human Fertility, and Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability, Conceptions, and Births. Aki and […] The post Birthdays and heat waves appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Read more »

Oooh, it burns me up

August 28, 2016
By
Oooh, it burns me up

If any of you are members of the Marketing Research Association, could you please contact them and ask them to change their position on this issue: I have a feeling they won’t mind if you call them at home. With an autodialer. “Pollsters now must hand-dial cellphones, at great expense,” indeed. It’s that expensive to […] The post Oooh, it burns me up appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

Better to just not see the sausage get made

August 27, 2016
By
Better to just not see the sausage get made

Mike Carniello writes: This article in the NYT leads to the full text, in which these statement are buried (no pun intended): What is the probability that two given texts were written by the same author? This was achieved by posing an alternative null hypothesis H0 (“both texts were written by the same author”) and […] The post Better to just not see the sausage get made appeared first on…

Read more »

Letters we never finished reading

August 26, 2016
By

I got a book in the mail attached to some publicity material that began: Over the last several years, a different kind of science book has found a home on consumer bookshelves. Anchored by meticulous research and impeccable credentials, these books bring hard science to bear on the daily lives of the lay reader; their […] The post Letters we never finished reading appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

A day in the life

August 25, 2016
By

I like to post approx one item per day on this blog, so when multiple things come up in the same day, I worry about the sustainability of all this. I suppose I could up the posting rate to 2 a day but I think that could be too much of a burden on the […] The post A day in the life appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

August 24, 2016
By
Hey pollsters!  Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

Alan Abramowitz writes: In five days, Clinton’s lead increased from 5 points to 12 points. And Democratic party ID margin increased from 3 points to 10 points. No, I don’t think millions of voters switched to the Democratic party. I think Democrats are were just more likely to respond in that second poll. And, remember, […] The post Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to…

Read more »

His varying slopes don’t seem to follow a normal distribution

August 24, 2016
By

Bruce Doré writes: I have a question about multilevel modeling I’m hoping you can help with. What should one do when random effects coefficients are clearly not normally distributed (i.e., coef(lmer(y~x+(x|id))) )? Is this a sign that the model should be changed? Or can you stick with this model and infer that the assumption of […] The post His varying slopes don’t seem to follow a normal distribution appeared first…

Read more »

Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance of careful measurement in randomized experiments

August 24, 2016
By

At Bank Underground: When studying the effects of interventions on individual behavior, the experimental research template is typically: Gather a bunch of people who are willing to participate in an experiment, randomly divide them into two groups, assign one treatment to group A and the other to group B, then measure the outcomes. If you […] The post Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance…

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe