Blog Archives

“La critique est la vie de la science”: I kinda get annoyed when people set themselves up as the voice of reason but don’t ever get around to explaining what’s the unreasonable thing they dislike.

October 20, 2017
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Someone pointed me to a blog post, Negative Psychology, from 2014 by Jim Coan about the replication crisis in psychology. My reaction: I find it hard to make sense of what he is saying because he doesn’t offer any examples of the “negative psychology” phenomenon that he discussing. I kinda get annoyed when people set […] The post “La critique est la vie de la science”: I kinda get annoyed…

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Why I think the top batting average will be higher than .311: Over-pooling of point predictions in Bayesian inference

October 19, 2017
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In a post from 22 May 2017 entitled, “Who is Going to Win the Batting Crown?”, Jim Albert writes: At this point in the season, folks are interested in extreme stats and want to predict final season measures. On the morning of Saturday May 20, here are the leading batting averages: Justin Turner .379 Ryan […] The post Why I think the top batting average will be higher than .311:…

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Beyond “power pose”: Using replication failures and a better understanding of data collection and analysis to do better science

October 19, 2017
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Beyond “power pose”:  Using replication failures and a better understanding of data collection and analysis to do better science

So. A bunch of people pointed me to a New York Times article by Susan Dominus about Amy Cuddy, the psychology researcher and Ted-talk star famous for the following claim (made in a paper written with Dana Carney and Andy Yap and published in 2010): That a person can, by assuming two simple 1-min poses, […] The post Beyond “power pose”: Using replication failures and a better understanding of data…

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No tradeoff between regularization and discovery

October 18, 2017
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We had a couple recent discussions regarding questionable claims based on p-values extracted from forking paths, and in both cases (a study “trying large numbers of combinations of otherwise-unused drugs against a large number of untreatable illnesses,” and a salami-slicing exercise looking for public opinion changes in subgroups of the population), I recommended fitting a […] The post No tradeoff between regularization and discovery appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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From perpetual motion machines to embodied cognition: The boundaries of pseudoscience are being pushed back into the trivial.

October 18, 2017
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From perpetual motion machines to embodied cognition:  The boundaries of pseudoscience are being pushed back into the trivial.

This exchange came from a comment thread last year. Diana Senechal points to this bizarre thing: Brian Little says in Me, Myself, and Us (regarding the “lemon introvert test”): One of the more interesting ways of informally assessing extraversion at the biogenic level is to do the lemon-drop test. [Description of experiment omitted from present […] The post From perpetual motion machines to embodied cognition: The boundaries of pseudoscience are…

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Beyond forking paths: using multilevel modeling to figure out what can be learned from this survey experiment

October 17, 2017
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Under the heading, “Incompetent leaders as a protection against elite betrayal,” Tyler Cowen linked to this paper, “Populism and the Return of the ‘Paranoid Style’: Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance against Elite Betrayal,” by Rafael Di Tella and Julio Rotemberg. From a statistical perspective, the article by Tella […] The post Beyond forking paths: using multilevel modeling to figure out what can be…

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Baseball, apple pie, and Stan

October 16, 2017
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Ben sends along these two baseball job ads that mention experience with Stan as a preferred qualification: St. Louis Cardinals Baseball Development Analyst Tampa Bay Rays Baseball Research and Development Analyst The post Baseball, apple pie, and Stan ...

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Freelance orphans: “33 comparisons, 4 are statistically significant: much more than the 1.65 that would be expected by chance alone, so what’s the problem??”

October 16, 2017
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From someone who would prefer to remain anonymous: As you may know, the relatively recent “orphan drug” laws allow (basically) companies that can prove an off-patent drug treats an otherwise untreatable illness, to obtain intellectual property protection for otherwise generic or dead drugs. This has led to a new business of trying large numbers of […] The post Freelance orphans: “33 comparisons, 4 are statistically significant: much more than the…

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Stan case studies

October 15, 2017
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Following up on recent posts here and here, I thought I’d post a list of all the Stan case studies we have so far. 2017: Modeling Loss Curves in Insurance with RStan, by Mick Cooney Splines in Stan, by Milad Kharratzadeh Spatial Models in Stan: Intrinsic Auto-Regressive Models for Areal Data, by Mitzi Morris The […] The post Stan case studies appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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“Bayesian evidence synthesis”

October 15, 2017
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Donny Williams writes: My colleagues and I have a paper recently accepted in the journal Psychological Science in which we “bang” on Bayes factors. We explicitly show how the Bayes factor varies according to tau (I thought you might find this interesting for yourself and your blog’s readers). There is also a very nice figure. […] The post “Bayesian evidence synthesis” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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