Blog Archives

Short course on Bayesian data analysis and Stan 18-20 July in NYC!

June 28, 2016
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Short course on Bayesian data analysis and Stan 18-20 July in NYC!

Jonah Gabry, Vince Dorie, and I are giving a 3-day short course in two weeks. Before class everyone should install R, RStudio and RStan on their computers. (If you already have these, please update to the latest version of R and the latest version of Stan, which is 2.10.) If problems occur please join the […] The post Short course on Bayesian data analysis and Stan 18-20 July in NYC!…

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Should this paper in Psychological Science be retracted? The data do not conclusively demonstrate the claim, nor do they provide strong evidence in favor. The data are, however, consistent with the claim (as well as being consistent with no effect)

June 28, 2016
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Should this paper in Psychological Science be retracted?  The data do not conclusively demonstrate the claim, nor do they provide strong evidence in favor.  The data are, however, consistent with the claim (as well as being consistent with no effect)

Retractions or corrections of published papers are rare. We routinely encounter articles with fatal flaws, but it is so rare that such articles are retracted that it’s news when it happens. Retractions sometimes happen at the request of the author (as in the link above, or in my own two retracted/corrected articles) and other times […] The post Should this paper in Psychological Science be retracted? The data do not…

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How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit?

June 27, 2016
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Here’s a news item: Emboldened by Brexit, U.S. secessionists in Texas are keen to adopt the campaign tactics used to sway the British vote for leaving the European Union and are demanding “Texit” comes next. . . . “The Texas Nationalist Movement is formally calling on the Texas governor to support a similar vote for […] The post How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit? appeared first on…

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On deck this week

June 27, 2016
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Mon: How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit? Tues: Should this paper in Psychological Science be retracted? The data do not conclusively demonstrate the claim, nor do they provide strong evidence in favor. The data are, however, consistent with the claim (as well as being consistent with no effect) Wed: Individual and aggregate […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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When are people gonna realize their studies are dead on arrival?

June 26, 2016
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When are people gonna realize their studies are dead on arrival?

A comment at Thomas Lumley’s blog pointed me to this discussion by Terry Burnham with an interesting story of some flashy psychology research that failed to replicate. Here’s Burnham: [In his popular book, psychologist Daniel] Kahneman discussed an intriguing finding that people score higher on a test if the questions are hard to read. The […] The post When are people gonna realize their studies are dead on arrival? appeared…

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Euro 2016 update

June 26, 2016
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Euro 2016 update

Big news out of Europe, everyone’s talking about soccer. Leo Egidi updated his model and now has predictions for the Round of 16: Here’s Leo’s report, and here’s his zipfile with data and Stan code. The report contains some ugly histograms showing the predictive distributions of goals to be scored in each game. The R […] The post Euro 2016 update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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What they’re saying about “blended learning”: “Perhaps the most reasonable explanation is that no one watched the video or did the textbook reading . . .”

June 25, 2016
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What they’re saying about “blended learning”:  “Perhaps the most reasonable explanation is that no one watched the video or did the textbook reading . . .”

Someone writes in: I was wondering if you had a chance to see the commentary by the Stockwells on blended learning strategies that was recently published in Cell and which also received quite a nice write up by Columbia. It’s also currently featured on Columbia’s webpage. In fact, I was a student in Prof. Stockwell’s […] The post What they’re saying about “blended learning”: “Perhaps the most reasonable explanation is…

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Brexit polling: What went wrong?

June 24, 2016
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Brexit polling:  What went wrong?

Commenter numeric writes: Since you were shilling for yougov the other day you might want to talk about their big miss on Brexit (off by 6% from their eve-of-election poll—remain up 2 on their last poll and leave up by 4 as of this posting). Fair enough: Had Yougov done well, I could use them […] The post Brexit polling: What went wrong? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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My talk tomorrow (Thurs) 10:30am at ICML in NYC

June 24, 2016
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I’ll be speaking at the workshop on Data-Efficient Machine Learning. And here’s the schedule. I’ll be speaking on the following topic: Toward Routine Use of Informative Priors Bayesian statistics is typically performed using noninformative priors but the resulting inferences commonly make no sense and also can lead to computational problems as algorithms have to waste […] The post My talk tomorrow (Thurs) 10:30am at ICML in NYC appeared first on…

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It comes down to reality and it’s fine with me cause I’ve let it slide

June 23, 2016
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It comes down to reality and it’s fine with me cause I’ve let it slide

E. J. Wagenmakers pointed me to this recent article by Roy Baumeister, who writes: Patience and diligence may be rewarded, but competence may matter less than in the past. Getting a significant result with n = 10 often required having an intuitive flair for how to set up the most conducive situation and produce a […] The post It comes down to reality and it’s fine with me cause I’ve…

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