Blog Archives

“Your Paper Makes SSRN Top Ten List”

October 19, 2014
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I received the following email from the Social Science Research Network, which is a (legitimate) preprint server for research papers: Dear Andrew Gelman: Your paper, “WHY HIGH-ORDER POLYNOMIALS SHOULD NOT BE USED IN REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGNS”, was recently listed on SSRN’s Top Ten download list for: PSN: Econometrics, Polimetrics, & Statistics (Topic) and Political Methods: […] The post “Your Paper Makes SSRN Top Ten List” appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Hoe noem je?

October 18, 2014
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Haynes Goddard writes: Reviewing my notes and books on categorical data analysis, the term “nominal” is widely employed to refer to variables without any natural ordering. I was a language major in UG school and knew that the etymology of nominal is the Latin word nomen (from the Online Etymological Dictionary: early 15c., “pertaining to […] The post Hoe noem je? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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How do companies use Bayesian methods?

October 17, 2014
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Jason May writes: I’m in Northwestern’s Predictive Analytics grad program. I’m working on a project providing Case Studies of how companies use certain analytic processes and want to use Bayesian Analysis as my focus. The problem: I can find tons of work on how one might apply Bayesian Statistics to different industries but very little […] The post How do companies use Bayesian methods? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science

October 16, 2014
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Anna Dreber Almenberg writes: The second prediction market project for the reproducibility project will soon be up and running – please participate! There will be around 25 prediction markets, each representing a particular study that is currently being replicated. Each study (and thus market) can be summarized by a key hypothesis that is being tested, which […] The post Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science appeared first on…

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Statistical Communication and Graphics Manifesto

October 15, 2014
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Statistical Communication and Graphics Manifesto

Statistical communication includes graphing data and fitted models, programming, writing for specialized and general audiences, lecturing, working with students, and combining words and pictures in different ways. The common theme of all these interactions is that we need to consider our statistical tools in the context of our goals. Communication is not just about conveying […] The post Statistical Communication and Graphics Manifesto appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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My course on Statistical Communication and Graphics

October 15, 2014
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My course on Statistical Communication and Graphics

We will study and practice many different aspects of statistical communication, including graphing data and fitted models, programming in Rrrrrrrr, writing for specialized and general audiences, lecturing, working with students and colleagues, and combining words and pictures in different ways. You learn by doing: each week we have two classes that are full of student […] The post My course on Statistical Communication and Graphics appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say

October 15, 2014
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The Fault in Our Stars:  It’s even worse than they say

In our recent discussion of publication bias, a commenter link to a recent paper, “Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back,” by Abel Brodeur, Mathias Le, Marc Sangnier, Yanos Zylberberg, who point to the notorious overrepresentation in scientific publications of p-values that are just below 0.05 (that is, just barely statistically significant at the conventional level) […] The post The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say appeared…

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I didn’t say that! Part 2

October 14, 2014
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Uh oh, this is getting kinda embarrassing. The Garden of Forking Paths paper, by Eric Loken and myself, just appeared in American Scientist. Here’s our manuscript version (“The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a problem, even when there is no ‘fishing expedition’ or ‘p-hacking’ and the research hypothesis was posited ahead […] The post I didn’t say that! Part 2 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons” but now I spend lots of time worrying about multiple comparisons

October 14, 2014
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Exhibit A: [2012] Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness 5, 189-211. (Andrew Gelman, Jennifer Hill, and Masanao Yajima) Exhibit B: The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a problem, even when there is no “fishing expedition” or “p-hacking” and the research hypothesis […] The post In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we…

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On deck this week

October 14, 2014
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Tues: In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons” but now I spend lots of time worrying about multiple comparisons Wed: The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say Thurs: Buggy-whip update Fri: The inclination to deny all variation Sat: […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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