Blog Archives

What’s the difference between randomness and uncertainty?

February 6, 2016
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Julia Galef mentioned “meta-uncertainty,” and how to characterize the difference between a 50% credence about a coin flip coming up heads, vs. a 50% credence about something like advanced AI being invented this century. I wrote: Yes, I’ve written about this probability thing. The way to distinguish these two scenarios is to embed each of […] The post What’s the difference between randomness and uncertainty? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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The bejeezus

February 5, 2016
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The bejeezus

Tova Perlmutter writes of a recent online exchange: Person A posted: In light of the Iowa caucuses today, something really bothered me on the news last night. A woman was interviewed, and she said that she supported Trump because, and I quote, ‘he says what we’re ALL thinking.’ Do people really think that his views […] The post The bejeezus appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Stat Podcast Plan

February 5, 2016
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Stat Podcast Plan

In my course on Statistical Communication and Graphics, each class had a special guest star who would answer questions on his or her area of expertise. These were not “guest lectures”—there were specific things I wanted the students to learn in this course, it wasn’t the kind of seminar where they just kick back each […] The post Stat Podcast Plan appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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The Notorious N.H.S.T. presents: Mo P-values Mo Problems

February 4, 2016
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Alain Content writes: I am a psycholinguist who teaches statistics (and also sometimes publishes in Psych Sci). I am writing because as I am preparing for some future lessons, I fall back on a very basic question which has been worrying me for some time, related to the reasoning underlying NHST [null hypothesis significance testing]. […] The post The Notorious N.H.S.T. presents: Mo P-values Mo Problems appeared first on Statistical…

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“Chatting with the Tea Party”

February 3, 2016
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I got an email last month offering two free tickets to the preview of a new play, Chatting with the Tea Party, described as “a documentary-style play about a New York playwright’s year attending Tea Party meetings around the country and interviewing local leaders. Nothing the Tea Party people in the play say has been […] The post “Chatting with the Tea Party” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Where the fat people at?

February 3, 2016
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Where the fat people at?

Pearly Dhingra points me to this article, “The Geographic Distribution of Obesity in the US and the Potential Regional Differences in Misreporting of Obesity,” by Anh Le, Suzanne Judd, David Allison, Reena Oza-Frank, Olivia Affuso, Monika Safford, Virginia Howard, and George Howard, who write: Data from BRFSS [the behavioral risk factor surveillance system] suggest that […] The post Where the fat people at? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Hey—go to Iceland and work on glaciers!

February 3, 2016
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Hey—go to Iceland and work on glaciers!

Egil Ferkingstad and Birgir Hrafnkelsson write: We have an exciting PhD position here at the University of Iceland on developing Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models to the field of glaciology. Havard Rue at NTNU, Trondheim and Chris Wikle at the University of Missouri will also be part of the project. The Department of Mathematics at the […] The post Hey—go to Iceland and work on glaciers! appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Stunning breakthrough: Using Stan to map cancer screening!

February 2, 2016
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Stunning breakthrough:  Using Stan to map cancer screening!

Paul Alper points me to this article, Breast Cancer Screening, Incidence, and Mortality Across US Counties, by Charles Harding, Francesco Pompei, Dmitriy Burmistrov, Gilbert Welch, Rediet Abebe, and Richard Wilson. Their substantive conclusion is there’s too much screening going on, but here I want to focus on their statistical methods: Spline methods were used to […] The post Stunning breakthrough: Using Stan to map cancer screening! appeared first on Statistical…

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Stunning breakthrough: Using Stan to map cancer screening!

February 2, 2016
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Stunning breakthrough:  Using Stan to map cancer screening!

Paul Alper points me to this article, Breast Cancer Screening, Incidence, and Mortality Across US Counties, by Charles Harding, Francesco Pompei, Dmitriy Burmistrov, Gilbert Welch, Rediet Abebe, and Richard Wilson. Their substantive conclusion is there’s too much screening going on, but here I want to focus on their statistical methods: Spline methods were used to […] The post Stunning breakthrough: Using Stan to map cancer screening! appeared first on Statistical…

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When does peer review make no damn sense?

February 1, 2016
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When does peer review make no damn sense?

Disclaimer: This post is not peer reviewed in the traditional sense of being vetted for publication by three people with backgrounds similar to mine. Instead, thousands of commenters, many of whom are not my peers—in the useful sense that, not being my peers, your perspectives are different from mine, and you might catch big conceptual […] The post When does peer review make no damn sense? appeared first on Statistical…

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