Blog Archives

Looking for rigor in all the wrong places

January 21, 2017
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Looking for rigor in all the wrong places

My talk in the upcoming conference on Inference from Non Probability Samples, 16-17 Mar in Paris: Looking for rigor in all the wrong places What do the following ideas and practices have in common: unbiased estimation, statistical significance, insistence on random sampling, and avoidance of prior information? All have been embraced as ways of enforcing […] The post Looking for rigor in all the wrong places appeared first on Statistical…

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Alternatives to jail for scientific fraud

January 20, 2017
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Alternatives to jail for scientific fraud

Mark Tuttle pointed me to this article by Amy Ellis Nutt, who writes: Since 2000, the number of U.S. academic fraud cases in science has risen dramatically. Five years ago, the journal Nature tallied the number of retractions in the previous decade and revealed they had shot up 10-fold. About half of the retractions were […] The post Alternatives to jail for scientific fraud appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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“Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically.”

January 19, 2017
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“Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically.”

Last year there was much discussion here and elsewhere about a paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton, who noticed that death rates for non-Hispanic white Americans aged 45-54 had been roughly flat since 1999, even while the death rates for this age category had been declining steadily in other countries and among nonwhite Americans. […] The post “Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence…

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Come and work with us!

January 18, 2017
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Stan is an open-source, state-of-the-art probabilistic programming language with a high-performance Bayesian inference engine written in C++. Stan had been successfully applied to modeling problems with hundreds of thousands of parameters in fields as diverse as econometrics, sports analytics, physics, pharmacometrics, recommender systems, political science, and many more. Research using Stan has been featured in […] The post Come and work with us! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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“If the horse race polls were all wrong about Trump, why should his approval rating polls be any better?”

January 17, 2017
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A journalist forwarded the above question to me and asked what I thought. My reply is that the horse race polls were not all wrong about Trump. The polls had him at approx 48% of the two-party vote and he received 49%. The polls were wrong by a few percentage points in some key swing […] The post “If the horse race polls were all wrong about Trump, why should…

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Laurie Davies: time series decomposition of birthday data

January 17, 2017
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On the cover of BDA3 is a Bayesian decomposition of the time series of birthdays in the U.S. over a 20-year period. We modeled the data as a sum of Gaussian processes and fit it using GPstuff. Occasionally we fit this model to new data; see for example this discussion of Friday the 13th and […] The post Laurie Davies: time series decomposition of birthday data appeared first on Statistical…

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Stan is hiring! hiring! hiring! hiring!

January 17, 2017
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[insert picture of adorable cat entwined with Stan logo] We’re hiring postdocs to do Bayesian inference. We’re hiring programmers for Stan. We’re hiring a project manager. How many people we hire depends on what gets funded. But we’re hiring a few people for sure. We want the best best people who love to collaborate, who […] The post Stan is hiring! hiring! hiring! hiring! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Powerpose update

January 16, 2017
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Powerpose update

I contacted Anna Dreber, one of the authors of the paper that failed to replicate power pose, and asked her about a particular question that came up regarding their replication study. One of the authors of the original power pose study wrote that the replication “varied methodologically in about a dozen ways — some of […] The post Powerpose update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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To know the past, one must first know the future: The relevance of decision-based thinking to statistical analysis

January 15, 2017
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We can break up any statistical problem into three steps: 1. Design and data collection. 2. Data analysis. 3. Decision making. It’s well known that step 1 typically requires some thought of steps 2 and 3: It is only when you have a sense of what you will do with your data, that you can […] The post To know the past, one must first know the future: The relevance…

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Frank Harrell statistics blog!

January 14, 2017
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Frank Harrell, author of an influential book on regression modeling and currently both a biostatistics professor and a statistician at the Food and Drug Administration, has started a blog. He sums up “some of his personal philosophy of statistics” here: Statistics needs to be fully integrated into research; experimental design is all important Don’t be […] The post Frank Harrell statistics blog! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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