Blog Archives

The Night Riders

December 14, 2017
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Gilbert Chin writes: After reading this piece [“How one 19-year-old Illinois man Is distorting national polling averages,” by Nate Cohn] and this Nature news story [“Seeing deadly mutations in an new light,” by Erika Hayden], I wonder if you might consider blogging about how this appears to be the same issue in two different disciplines. […] The post The Night Riders appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Yes, you can do statistical inference from nonrandom samples. Which is a good thing, considering that nonrandom samples are pretty much all we’ve got.

December 13, 2017
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Luiz Caseiro writes: 1. P-values and Confidence Intervals are used to draw inferences about a population from a sample. Is that right? 2. As far as I researched, standard statistical softwares usually compute confidence intervals (CI) and p-values assuming that we have a simple random sample. Is that right? 3. If we have another kind […] The post Yes, you can do statistical inference from nonrandom samples. Which is a…

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Two steps forward, one step back

December 12, 2017
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Alex Gamma writes in with what he describes as “an amusing little story” from two years ago: When Deaton & Case published their study, and after your re-analysis had uncovered the missing age-correction, I’ve pointed out this issue to several news blogs that reported on the study, but were not aware of the problem (only […] The post Two steps forward, one step back appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Workflow, baby, workflow

December 11, 2017
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Bob Carpenter writes: Here’s what we do and what we recommend everyone else do: 1. code the model as straightforwardly as possible 2. generate fake data 3. make sure the program properly codes the model 4. run the program on real data 5. *If* the model is too slow, optimize *one step at a time* […] The post Workflow, baby, workflow appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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A reporter sent me a Jama paper and asked me what I thought . . .

December 10, 2017
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My reply: Thanks for sending. I can’t be sure about everything they’re doing but the paper looks reasonable to me. I expect there are various ways that the analysis could be improved, but on a quick look I don’t see anything obviously wrong with it, and the authors seem to know what they are doing. […] The post A reporter sent me a Jama paper and asked me what I…

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Ed Jaynes outta control!

December 9, 2017
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A commmenter points to a chapter of E. T. Jaynes’s book on probability and inference that contains the following amazing bit: The information we get from the TV evening news is not that a certain event actually happened in a certain way it is that some news reporter has claimed that it did. Even seeing […] The post Ed Jaynes outta control! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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“How to Assess Internet Cures Without Falling for Dangerous Pseudoscience”

December 8, 2017
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Science writer Julie Rehmeyer discusses her own story: Five years ago, against practically anyone’s better judgment, I knowingly abandoned any semblance of medical evidence to follow the bizarre-sounding health advice of strangers on the internet. The treatment was extreme, expensive, and potentially dangerous. If that sounds like a terrible idea to you, imagine how it […] The post “How to Assess Internet Cures Without Falling for Dangerous Pseudoscience” appeared first…

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Offline

December 8, 2017
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Offline

I’m getting my computer repaired and so will be offline for a few days, won’t be reading or sending email or reading blog comments. The blog will auto-post, though, one per day, with already-scheduled material: “How to Assess Internet Cures Without Falling for Dangerous Pseudoscience” Ed Jaynes outta control! A reporter sent me a Jama […] The post Offline appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Bin Yu and Karl Kumbier: “Artificial Intelligence and Statistics”

December 8, 2017
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Yu and Kumbier write: Artificial intelligence (AI) is intrinsically data-driven. It calls for the application of statistical concepts through human-machine collaboration during generation of data, development of algo- rithms, and evaluation of results. This paper discusses how such human-machine collaboration can be approached through the statistical concepts of population, question of interest, representativeness of training […] The post Bin Yu and Karl Kumbier: “Artificial Intelligence and Statistics” appeared first on…

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Loss of confidence

December 7, 2017
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Loss of confidence

This fascinating post by David Weakliem documents declining confidence in political institutions: and the news media: and some other institutions: As Weakliem writes: So far, confidence in everything has declined. You could offer specific explanations for each one, but the fact that it’s so widespread suggests that the declines reflect a general mood of dissatisfaction. […] The post Loss of confidence appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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