If you weren’t sick of Theranos yet…. Looks like there will be a movie version of the Theranos saga which, as far as I can tell, isn’t over yet, but no matter. It will be done by Adam McKay, the writer-director of The Big Short (excellent film),...

If you weren’t sick of Theranos yet…. Looks like there will be a movie version of the Theranos saga which, as far as I can tell, isn’t over yet, but no matter. It will be done by Adam McKay, the writer-director of The Big Short (excellent film),...

With the U.K. leaving the E.U., it's time for "Bayesian" to exit its titular role and be replaced by "Laplacian". ;-) Various historians (e.g., Dale, 1999; McGrayne, 2011; as cited in DBDA2E) have argued that despite Bayes and Price having ...

Here’s a news item: Emboldened by Brexit, U.S. secessionists in Texas are keen to adopt the campaign tactics used to sway the British vote for leaving the European Union and are demanding “Texit” comes next. . . . “The Texas Nationalist Movement is formally calling on the Texas governor to support a similar vote for […] The post How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit? appeared first on…

Mon: How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit? Tues: Should this paper in Psychological Science be retracted? The data do not conclusively demonstrate the claim, nor do they provide strong evidence in favor. The data are, however, consistent with the claim (as well as being consistent with no effect) Wed: Individual and aggregate […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

'Tis a gift to be simple. -- Shaker hymn In June 2015 I published a short article for Significance, a magazine that features statistical and data-related articles that are of general interest to a wide a range of scientists. The title of my article is "In Praise of Simple Graphics." […] The post In praise of simple graphics appeared first on The DO Loop.

Two earlier regularization posts focused on panel data and generic time series contexts. Now consider a specific time-series context: long memory. For exposition consider the simplest case of a pure long memory DGP, \( (1-L)^d y_t = \varep...

Quite a coincidence! I just came across another bug in Lynch’s (2007) book, Introduction to Applied Bayesian Statistics and Estimation for Social Scientists. Already discussed here and on X validated. While working with one participant to the post-ISBA softshop, we were looking for efficient approaches to simulating correlation matrices and came [by Google] across the […]

A comment at Thomas Lumley’s blog pointed me to this discussion by Terry Burnham with an interesting story of some flashy psychology research that failed to replicate. Here’s Burnham: [In his popular book, psychologist Daniel] Kahneman discussed an intriguing finding that people score higher on a test if the questions are hard to read. The […] The post When are people gonna realize their studies are dead on arrival? appeared…

Big news out of Europe, everyone’s talking about soccer. Leo Egidi updated his model and now has predictions for the Round of 16: Here’s Leo’s report, and here’s his zipfile with data and Stan code. The report contains some ugly histograms showing the predictive distributions of goals to be scored in each game. The R […] The post Euro 2016 update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

Someone writes in: I was wondering if you had a chance to see the commentary by the Stockwells on blended learning strategies that was recently published in Cell and which also received quite a nice write up by Columbia. It’s also currently featured on Columbia’s webpage. In fact, I was a student in Prof. Stockwell’s […] The post What they’re saying about “blended learning”: “Perhaps the most reasonable explanation is…

Commenter numeric writes: Since you were shilling for yougov the other day you might want to talk about their big miss on Brexit (off by 6% from their eve-of-election poll—remain up 2 on their last poll and leave up by 4 as of this posting). Fair enough: Had Yougov done well, I could use them […] The post Brexit polling: What went wrong? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

I’ll be speaking at the workshop on Data-Efficient Machine Learning. And here’s the schedule. I’ll be speaking on the following topic: Toward Routine Use of Informative Priors Bayesian statistics is typically performed using noninformative priors but the resulting inferences commonly make no sense and also can lead to computational problems as algorithms have to waste […] The post My talk tomorrow (Thurs) 10:30am at ICML in NYC appeared first on…

E. J. Wagenmakers pointed me to this recent article by Roy Baumeister, who writes: Patience and diligence may be rewarded, but competence may matter less than in the past. Getting a significant result with n = 10 often required having an intuitive flair for how to set up the most conducive situation and produce a […] The post It comes down to reality and it’s fine with me cause I’ve…

All told, after decades of research, it seems that Efron-Hinkley holds up -- observed information dominates estimated expected information for finite-sample MLE inference. It's both easier to calculate and more accurate. Let me know if you disagree.[Ef...

Nina Zumel introduced y-aware scaling in her recent article Principal Components Regression, Pt. 2: Y-Aware Methods. I really encourage you to read the article and add the technique to your repertoire. The method combines well with other methods and can drive better predictive modeling results. From feedback I am not sure everybody noticed that in … Continue reading y-aware scaling in context

Alex Gamma writes: Reading your blog recently has inspired two ideas which have in common that they analogize statistical concepts with non-statistical ones related to science: The time-reversal heuristic as randomization: Pushing your idea further leads to the notion of randomization of the sequence of study “reporting”. Studies are produced sequentially, but consumers of science […] The post Time-reversal heuristic as randomization, and p < .05 as conflict of interest…

Graphs enable you to visualize how the predicted values for a regression model depend on the model effects. You can gain an intuitive understanding of a model by using the EFFECTPLOT statement in SAS to create graphs like the one shown at the top of this article. Many SAS regression […] The post Use the EFFECTPLOT statement to visualize regression models in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.