## Wegman Frey Hauser Weick Fischer Dr. Anil Potti Stapel comes clean

December 17, 2014
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Thomas Leeper points me to Diederik Stapel’s memoir, “Faking Science: A True Story of Academic Fraud,” translated by Nick Brown and available online for free download. The post Wegman Frey Hauser Weick Fischer Dr. Anil Potti Stapel co...

## End-of-Semester Econometrics Examination

December 17, 2014
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My introductory graduate econometrics class has just finished up. The students sat the final examination yesterday. They did really well!If you'd like to try your hand, you can find the exam. here.© 2014, David E. Giles

## A non-comprehensive list of awesome things other people did in 2014

December 17, 2014
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Editor's Note: Last year I made a list off the top of my head of awesome things other people did. I loved doing it so much that I'm doing it again for 2014. Like last year, I have surely missed awesome things people have done. If you know of some, you should make your own list or

## Statistics tutorials at PyCon 2015

December 17, 2014
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I am happy to announce that I will offer two statistics tutorials at PyCon 2015 on April 9 in Montreal.  In the morning session I am teaching Bayesian Statistics Made Simple, which I have taught several times before, including the last three PyCon...

## I’d like to see a preregistered replication on this one

December 17, 2014
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Under the heading, “Results too good to be true,” Lee Sechrest points me to this discussion by “Neuroskeptic” of a discussion by psychology researcher Greg Francis of a published (and publicized) claim by biologists Brian Dias and Kerry Ressler that “Parental olfactory experience [in mice] influences behavior and neural structure in subsequent generations.” That’s a […] The post I’d like to see a preregistered replication on this one appeared first…

## Self-similar structures from Kronecker products

December 17, 2014
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I recently posted an article about self-similar structures that arise in Pascal's triangle. Did you know that the Kronecker product (or direct product) can be used to create matrices that have self-similar structure? The basic idea is to start with a 0/1 matrix and compute a sequence of direct products […]

## New R package for electricity forecasting

December 17, 2014
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Shu Fan and I have developed a model for electricity demand forecasting that is now widely used in Australia for long-term forecasting of peak electricity demand. It has become known as the “Monash Electricity Forecasting Model”. We have decided to release an R package that implements our model so that other people can easily use it. […]

## Announcing Kent Staley’s new book, An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science (CUP)

December 17, 2014
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Kent Staley has written a clear and engaging introduction to PhilSci that manages to blend the central key topics of philosophy of science with current philosophy of statistics. Quite possibly, Staley explains Error Statistics more clearly in many ways than I do in his 10 page section, 9.4. CONGRATULATIONS STALEY* You can get this book for free […]

## Announcing Kent Staley’s new book, An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science (CUP)

December 17, 2014
By

Kent Staley has written a clear and engaging introduction to PhilSci that manages to blend the central key topics of philosophy of science with current philosophy of statistics. Quite possibly, Staley explains Error Statistics more clearly in many ways than I do in his 10 page section, 9.4. CONGRATULATIONS STALEY* You can get this book for free […]

## Lazy(?)

December 16, 2014
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It's nearly the Christmas break and as I was writing the previous post (on our Workshop on cost-effectiveness thresholds), I just noticed the post-counter in the blog archive. While the decrease in the number of posts from 2012 to 2013 was minimal (98 ...

## NICE and the cost-effectiveness thresholds: Can good intentions compensate for bad practice?

December 16, 2014
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That's the title of the workshop we've held at UCL yesterday (I'd mentioned it in a previous post). I think it went remarkably well (OK $-$ as I'm the organiser, I may be over-enthusiastic, but I really think it was a very good day!). Despite the fact ...

## Expectation propagation as a way of life

December 16, 2014
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Aki Vehtari, Pasi Jylänki, Christian Robert, Nicolas Chopin, John Cunningham, and I write: We revisit expectation propagation (EP) as a prototype for scalable algorithms that partition big datasets into many parts and analyze each part in parallel to perform inference of shared parameters. The algorithm should be particularly efficient for hierarchical models, for which the […] The post Expectation propagation as a way of life appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## Notes from the Kölner R meeting, 12 December 2014

December 16, 2014
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Last week's Cologne R user group meeting was the best attended so far, and it was a remarkable event - I believe not a single line of R code was shown. Still, it was an R user group meeting with two excellent talks, and you will understand shortly why ...

## Damn, I was off by a factor of 2!

December 16, 2014
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I hate when that happens. Demography is tricky. Oh well, as they say in astronomy, who cares, it was less than an order of magnitude! The post Damn, I was off by a factor of 2! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Scien...

## Learning R: Live Webinar, Interactive Self-Paced, or Site Visit?

December 15, 2014
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My recent blog post, Why R is Hard to Learn, must have hit a nerve as it was read by over 6,000 people in its first two days online.  If you’re using R to augment your work in SAS, SPSS … Continue reading →

## Another example of misleading time-based correlation

December 15, 2014
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On my sister blog last week, I wrote about how to screw up a column chart. The chart designer apparently wanted to explore whether Rotten Tomato Scores are correlated with box office success, and whether the running time of a movie is correlated with box office success. In either case, the set of movies is a small one, those directed by Chris Nolan. Here is a better view of the…

## “Now the company appears to have screwed up badly, and they’ve done it in pretty much exactly the way you would expect a company to screw up when it doesn’t drill down into the data.”

December 15, 2014
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Palko tells a good story: One of the accepted truths of the Netflix narrative is that CEO Reed Hastings is obsessed with data and everything the company does is data driven . . . Of course, all 21st century corporations are relatively data-driven. The fact that Netflix has large data sets on customer behavior does […] The post “Now the company appears to have screwed up badly, and they’ve done…

## On deck this week

December 15, 2014
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Mon: “Now the company appears to have screwed up badly, and they’ve done it in pretty much exactly the way you would expect a company to screw up when it doesn’t drill down into the data.” Tues: Expectation propagation as a way of life Wed: I’d like to see a preregistered replication on this one […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Causal Modeling Update

December 15, 2014
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In an earlier post on predictive modeling and causal inference, I mentioned my summer "reading list" for causal modeling:Re-read Pearl, and read the Heckman-Pinto critique.Re-read White et al. on settable systems and testing conditional indep...

## How students can improve their final grade without studying even more

December 15, 2014
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Cross-post on my two blogs Here is something different: I wrote a piece on exam-taking tips. It's on a new website, Cafe, which has lots of good (non-quant) reads. The motivation for the piece is my observation that most American students are not taught how to take exams. As a professor, I notice that many students get lower scores than they deserve because of this. In this article, I describe…

## Elementwise minimum and maximum operators

December 15, 2014
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Like most programming languages, the SAS/IML language has many functions. However, the SAS/IML language also has quite a few operators. Operators can act on a matrix or on rows or columns of a matrix. They are less intuitive, but can be quite powerful because they enable you perform computations without […]

## Experient downdating algorithm for Leave-One-Out CV in RDA

December 15, 2014
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In this post, I want to demonstrate a piece of experiment code for downdating algorithm for Leave-One-Out (LOO) Cross Validation in Regularized Discriminant Analysis [1]. In LOO CV, the program needs to calculate the inverse of \(\hat{\Sigma}_{k\v}(\la...

## Control Excel via SAS DDE & Python win32com

December 15, 2014
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Excel is probably the most used interface between human and data. Whenever you are dealing with business people, Excel is the de facto means for all things about data processing. I used to only use SAS and Python for number crunching but in one of my r...