## R and Python: Theory of Linear Least Squares

December 15, 2015
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In my previous article, we talked about implementations of linear regression models in R, Python and SAS. On the theoretical sides, however, I briefly mentioned the estimation procedure for the parameter $\boldsymbol{\beta}$. So to help us understand h...

## Recently in the sister blog

December 15, 2015
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How essentialism shapes our thinking. I think this idea, that people are natural “essentialists”—has important implications for both statistics and political science. In politics, there are these ideas that people have about Democrats, or Republicans, or Muslims, or various other groups. In statistics, as regular readers know, I continue to fight against discrete thinking, the […] The post Recently in the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

December 14, 2015
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We recently redesigned the Tapestry website, and unfortunately lost the archive page. It will definitely come back (and better than before), but in the meantime, there’s the Tapestry YouTube Channel. You can watch all the talks from the last three years. This includes people like Hannah Fairfield, Alberto Cairo, Martin Wattenberg and Fernanda Viègas, Kim Rees, and … Continue reading Link: The Tapestry YouTube Channel

## Bayesian decision analysis for the drug-approval process (NSFW)

December 14, 2015
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Bill Jefferys points me to a paper, “Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design,” by Vahid Montazerhodjat and Andrew Lo. Here’s the abstract: Implicit in the drug-approval process is a trade-off between Type I and Type II error. We propose using Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) to […] The post Bayesian decision analysis for the drug-approval process (NSFW) appeared first on Statistical…

## GRUPO: Shiny App For Benchmarking Pubmed Publication Output

December 14, 2015
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This is a guest post from VP Nagraj, a data scientist embedded within UVA’s Health Sciences Library, who runs our Data Analysis Support Hub (DASH) service.The WhatGRUPO (Gauging Research University Publication Output) is a Shiny app that provides sid...

## On deck this week

December 14, 2015
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Mon: Bayesian decision analysis for the drug-approval process (NSFW) Tues: Mars 1, This American Life 0 Wed: LaCour and Green 1, This American Life 0 Thurs: What is a Republican? Fri: What they’re saying about “blended learning”: “Perhaps the most reasonable explanation is that no one watched the video or did the textbook reading . […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

December 14, 2015
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This is what the book Social Media Mining calls the Big Data Paradox: Social media data is undoubtedly big. However, when we zoom into individuals for whom, for example, we would like to make relevant recommendations, we often have little data for each specific individual. We have to exploit the characteristics of social media and […]

## Latest Draft of Forecasting Book

December 14, 2015
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Latest draft of Forecasting book posted here.

## Latest Draft of Forecasting Book

December 14, 2015
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Latest draft of Forecasting book posted here.

## Running interactive procedures in SAS Studio and SAS University Edition

December 14, 2015
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The most recent development environment for SAS programmers is SAS Studio, which is a browser-based application. The free SAS University Edition, which includes SAS/IML software, also uses SAS Studio as a development environment. SAS Studio has a special mode for programmers who use interactive procedures such as PROC IML. (Recall […] The post Running interactive procedures in SAS Studio and SAS University Edition appeared first on The DO Loop.

## Superforecasting

December 14, 2015
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A gratis copy of Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner's new book, Superforecasting, arrived a couple months ago, just before it was published. It's been sitting on my desk until now. With a title like "Superforcasting," perhaps I subconsciously thought ...

## Data, data, data

December 14, 2015
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Having presented preliminary findings from a national sample of therapeutic communities in Brazil, I thought the Babbage’s words fits like a glove for those criticizing quantitative approaches for policy evaluations: the “Errors using inadequate d...

## Data, data, data

December 14, 2015
By

Having presented preliminary findings from a national sample of therapeutic communities in Brazil, I thought the Babbage’s words fits like a glove for those criticizing quantitative approaches for policy evaluations: the “Errors using inadequate da...

## Data, data, data

December 14, 2015
By

Having presented preliminary findings from a national sample of therapeutic communities in Brazil, I thought the Babbage’s words fits like a glove for those criticizing quantitative approaches for policy evaluations: the “Errors using inadequate d...

## Data, data, data

December 14, 2015
By

Having presented preliminary findings from a national sample of therapeutic communities in Brazil, I thought the Babbage’s words fits like a glove for those criticizing quantitative approaches for policy evaluations: the “Errors using inadequate d...

## Data, data, data

December 14, 2015
By

Having presented preliminary findings from a national sample of therapeutic communities in Brazil, I thought the Babbage's words fits like a glove for those criticizing quantitative approaches for policy evaluations: the "Errors using inadequ...

## Jökull Snæbjarnarson writes . . .

December 13, 2015
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Wow! After that name, anything that follows will be a letdown. But we’ll answer his or her question anyway. So here goes. Jökull Snæbjarnarson writes: I’m fitting large bayesian regression models in Stan where I have many parameters. Having fitted a model and some of the “beta” coefficients HDI’s, where beta is the beta in […] The post Jökull Snæbjarnarson writes . . . appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## Maintaining a database of price files in R

December 13, 2015
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Doing quantitative research implies a lot of data crunching and one needs clean and reliable data to achieve this. What is really needed is clean data that is easily accessible (even without an internet connection). The most efficient way to do this for me has been to maintain a set of csv files. Obviously this […]

## Stephen Senn: The pathetic P-value (Guest Post) [3]

December 13, 2015
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Stephen Senn Head of Competence Center for Methodology and Statistics (CCMS) Luxembourg Institute of Health The pathetic P-value* [3] This is the way the story is now often told. RA Fisher is the villain. Scientists were virtuously treading the Bayesian path, when along came Fisher and gave them P-values, which they gladly accepted, because they […]

## Lessons from Bayesian disease diagnosis: Don’t over-interpret the Bayes factor

December 12, 2015
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This post has been revised and is now superseded by the new post linked >HERE<. Overview"Captain, the prior probability of thischaracter dying is extremely small."A primary example of Bayes' rule is for disease diagnosis (or illicit drug screenin...

## Vacancies in the Netherlands

December 12, 2015
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Over the last couple of years, each weekend I have registering how many vacancies websites claim to have. This post shows some of the observations one may draw from the plots.DataData is from general and more specialized websites. The first observation...

## 1 cool trick for defining conditional probability

December 12, 2015
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Hi, this one comes up from time to time so I thought I’d devote a whole post to it. The question is: what is conditional probability? And here’s what I wrote: Everyone agrees that P(A,B) = P(A|B)*P(B). The question is, what comes first? In traditional probability textbooks, P(A,B) is defined first, then P(A|B) is defined […] The post 1 cool trick for defining conditional probability appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## ERCIM/CMStat 2015

December 12, 2015
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Tomorrow I'll be at the 8th International Conference of the ERCIM WG on Computational and Methodological Statistics (CMStatistics 2015), which has again come to London. I have only been once to this conference, two years ago $-$ that time too it w...