Jesus taken serious by the many Jesus taken joyous by a few Jazz police are paid by J. Paul Getty Jazzers paid by J. Paul Getty II Leonard Cohen So I’m trying a new thing because like no one is really desperate for another five thousand word essay about whatever happens to be on my […]
Author: Dan Simpson
Multilevel structured (regression) and post-stratification
My enemies are all too familiar. They’re the ones who used to call me friend – Jawbreaker Well I am back from Australia where I gave a whole pile of talks and drank more coffee than is probably a good idea. So I’m pretty jetlagged and I’m supposed to be writing my tenure packet, so […]
I don’t have a clever title but this is an interesting paper
Why do we, as a discipline, have so little understanding of the methods we have created and promote? Our primary tool for gaining understanding is mathematics, which has obvious appeal: most of us trained in math and there is no better form of information than a theorem that establishes a useful fact about a method. […]
All I need is time, a moment that is mine, while I’m in between
You’re an ordinary boy and that’s the way I like it – Magic Dirt Look. I’ll say something now, so it’s off my chest. I hate order statisics. I loathe them. I detest them. I wish them nothing but ill and strife. They are just awful. And I’ve spent the last god only knows how long […]
A supposedly fun thing I definitely won’t be repeating (A Pride post)
I have no music for you today, sorry. But I do have an article about cruise ships – Dan (This is obviously not Andrew) A Sunday night quickie post, from the tired side of Toronto’s Pride weekend. It’s also Pride month, and it’s 50 years on Friday since the Stonewall riots, which were a major […]
Against Arianism 3: Consider the cognitive models of the field
“You took my sadness out of context at the Mariners Apartment Complex” – Lana Del Rey It’s sunny, I’m in England, and I’m having a very tasty beer, and Lauren, Andrew, and I just finished a paper called The experiment is just as important as the likelihood in understanding the prior: A cautionary note on robust […]
Maybe it’s time to let the old ways die; or We broke R-hat so now we have to fix it.
“Otto eye-balled the diva lying comatose amongst the reeds, and he suddenly felt the fire of inspiration flood his soul. He ran back to his workshop where he futzed and futzed and futzed.” –Bette Midler Andrew was annoyed. Well, annoyed is probably too strong a word. Maybe a better way to start is with The […]
Limitations of “Limitations of Bayesian Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation for Model Selection”
“If you will believe in your heart and confess with your lips, surely you will be saved one day” – The Mountain Goats paraphrasing Romans 10:9 One of the weird things about working with people a lot is that it doesn’t always translate into multiple opportunities to see them talk. I’m pretty sure the only […]
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Against Arianism 2: Arianism Grande
“There’s the part you’ve braced yourself against, and then there’s the other part” – The Mountain Goats My favourite genre of movie is Nicole Kidman in a questionable wig. (Part of the sub-genre founded by Sarah Paulson, who is the patron saint of obvious wigs.) And last night I was in the same room* as […]
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Against Arianism
“I need some love like I’ve never needed love before” – Geri, Mel C, Mel B, Victoria, Emma (noted Arianists) I spent most of today on a sequence of busses shuttling between cities in Ontario, so I’ve been thinking a lot about fourth century heresies. That’s an obvious lie. But I think we all know […]
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Against Arianism
“I need some love like I’ve never needed love before” – Gerri, Mel C, Mel B, Victoria, Emma (noted Arianists) I spent most of today on a sequence of busses shuttling between cities in Ontario, so I’ve been thinking a lot about fourth century heresies. That’s an obvious lie. But I think we all know […]
The post Against Arianism appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Amelia, it was just a false alarm
Nah, jet fuel can’t melt steel beams. I’ve watched enough conspiracy documentaries – Camp Cope Some ideas persist long after the mounting evidence against them becomes overwhelming. Some of these things are kooky but probably harmless (try as I might, I do not care about ESP etc), whereas some are deeply damaging (I’m looking at you “vaccines […]
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Amelia, it was just a false alarm
Nah, jet fuel can’t melt steel beams. I’ve watched enough conspiracy documentaries – Camp Cope Some ideas persist long after the mounting evidence against them becomes overwhelming. Some of these things are kooky but probably harmless (try as I might, I do not care about ESP etc), whereas some are deeply damaging (I’m looking at you “vaccines […]
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In my role as professional singer and ham
Pryor unhooks the deer’s skull from the wall above his still-curled-up companion. Examines it. Not a good specimen –the back half of the lower jaw’s missing, a gap that, with the open cranial cavity, makes room enough for Pryor’s head. He puts it on. – Will Eaves, Murmur So as we roll into the last […]
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I am the supercargo
In a form of sympathetic magic, many built life-size replicas of airplanes out of straw and cut new military-style landing strips out of the jungle, hoping to attract more airplanes. – Wikipedia Twenty years ago, Geri Halliwell left the Spice Girls, so I’ve been thinking about Cargo Cults a lot. As an analogy for what […]
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Opportunity for Comment!
(This is Dan) Last September, Jonah, Aki, Michael, Andrew and I wrote a paper on the role of visualization in the Bayesian workflow. This paper is going to be published as a discussion paper in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A and the associated read paper meeting (where we present the paper and […]
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One good and one bad response to statistics’ diversity problem
(This is Dan) As conference season rolls into gear, I thought I’d write a short post contrasting some responses by statistical societies to the conversation that the community has been having about harassment of women and minorities at workshops and conferences. ISI: Do what I say, not what I do Let’s look at a different diversity […]
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