Category: Miscellaneous Science

My footnote about global warming

At the beginning of my article, How to think scientifically about scientists’ proposals for fixing science, which we discussed yesterday, I wrote: Science is in crisis. Any doubt about this status has surely been been dispelled by the loud assurances to the contrary by various authority figures who are deeply invested in the current system […]

The post My footnote about global warming appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Bayes, statistics, and reproducibility: “Many serious problems with statistics in practice arise from Bayesian inference that is not Bayesian enough, or frequentist evaluation that is not frequentist enough, in both cases using replication distributions that do not make scientific sense or do not reflect the actual procedures being performed on the data.”

This is an abstract I wrote for a talk I didn’t end up giving. (The conference conflicted with something else I had to do that week.) But I thought it might interest some of you, so here it is: Bayes, statistics, and reproducibility The two central ideas in the foundations of statistics—Bayesian inference and frequentist […]

The post Bayes, statistics, and reproducibility: “Many serious problems with statistics in practice arise from Bayesian inference that is not Bayesian enough, or frequentist evaluation that is not frequentist enough, in both cases using replication distributions that do not make scientific sense or do not reflect the actual procedures being performed on the data.” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

My talk tomorrow (Tues) noon at the Princeton University Psychology Department

Integrating collection, analysis, and interpretation of data in social and behavioral research Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University The replication crisis has made us increasingly aware of the flaws of conventional statistical reasoning based on hypothesis testing. The problem is not just a technical issue with p-values, not can […]

The post My talk tomorrow (Tues) noon at the Princeton University Psychology Department appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“James Watson in his own words”

Here are some thoughts from the noted biologist and writer, collected by Lior Pachter.
I’d seen a few of these Watson quotes before, but it’s kinda stunning to see them all in one place. Apparently he recommends never adopting an Irish kid…

“And when you did you weren’t much use, you didn’t even know what a peptide was”

Last year we discussed the story of an article, “Variation in the β-endorphin, oxytocin, and dopamine receptor genes is associated with different dimensions of human sociality,” published in PNAS that, notoriously, misidentified what a peptide was, among other problems. Recently I learned of a letter published in PNAS by Patrick Jern, Karin Verweij, Fiona Barlow, […]

The post “And when you did you weren’t much use, you didn’t even know what a peptide was” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“Law professor Alan Dershowitz’s new book claims that political differences have lately been criminalized in the United States. He has it wrong. Instead, the orderly enforcement of the law has, ludicrously, been framed as political.”

This op-ed by Virginia Heffernan is about g=politics, but it reminded me of the politics of science. Heffernan starts with the background: This last year has been a crash course in startlingly brutal abuses of power. For decades, it seems, a caste of self-styled overmen has felt liberated to commit misdeeds with impunity: ethical, sexual, […]

The post “Law professor Alan Dershowitz’s new book claims that political differences have lately been criminalized in the United States. He has it wrong. Instead, the orderly enforcement of the law has, ludicrously, been framed as political.” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Melanie Miller says, “As someone who has worked in A.I. for decades, I’ve witnessed the failure of similar predictions of imminent human-level A.I., and I’m certain these latest forecasts will fall short as well. “

Melanie Miller‘s piece, Artificial Intelligence Hits the Barrier of Meaning (NY Times behind limited paywall), is spot-on regarding the hype surrounding the current A.I. boom. It’s soon to come out in book length from FSG, so I suspect I’ll hear about it again in the New Yorker. Like Professor Miller, I started my Ph.D. at […]

The post Melanie Miller says, “As someone who has worked in A.I. for decades, I’ve witnessed the failure of similar predictions of imminent human-level A.I., and I’m certain these latest forecasts will fall short as well. “ appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

My two talks in Austria next week, on two of your favorite topics!

Innsbruck, 7 Nov 2018: The study of American politics as a window into understanding uncertainty in science We begin by discussing recent American elections in the context of political polarization, and we consider similarities and differences with European politics. We then discuss statistical challenges in the measurement of public opinion: inference from opinion polls with […]

The post My two talks in Austria next week, on two of your favorite topics! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.