A picture taken at Jericho Cheese, Little Clarendon Street, Oxford, that I took this week when I visited this cheesemonger for the first time, after several years of passing by its tantalizing display of British cheeses! It happens to have become my most popular picture on Instagram, ranking above the fiery sunrise over the Calanques, […]

# Category: Statistics

## The Japanese dude who won the hot dog eating contest vs. Oscar Wilde (1); Albert Brooks advances

Yesterday I was going to go with this argument from Ethan: Now I’m morally bound to use the Erdos argument I said no one would see unless he made it to this round. Andrew will take the speaker out to dinner, prove a theorem, publish it and earn an Erdos number of 1. But then […]

## More on that horrible statistical significance grid

Regarding this horrible Table 4: Eric Loken writes: The clear point or your post was that p-values (and even worse the significance versus non-significance) are a poor summary of data. The thought I’ve had lately, working with various groups of really smart and thoughtful researchers, is that Table 4 is also a model of their […]

## PDSwR2 Free Excerpt and New Discount Code

Manning has a new discount code and a free excerpt of our book Practical Data Science with R, 2nd Edition: here.

This section is elementary, but things really pick up speed as later on (also available in a paid preview).

## undecidable learnability

“There is an unknown probability distribution P over some finite subset of the interval [0,1]. We get to see m i.i.d. samples from P for m of our choice. We then need to find a finite subset of [0,1] whose P-measure is at least 2/3. The theorem says that the standard axioms of mathematics cannot […]

## Entropy extractor used in μRNG

Yesterday I mentioned μRNG, a true random number generator (TRNG) that takes physical sources of randomness as input. These sources are independent but non-uniform. This post will present the entropy extractor μRNG uses to take non-uniform bits as input and produce uniform bits as output. We will present Python code for playing with the entropy extractor. (μRNG […]

## Book reading at Ann Arbor Meetup on Monday night: Probability and Statistics: a simulation-based introduction

The Talk I’m going to be previewing the book I’m in the process of writing at the Ann Arbor R meetup on Monday. Here are the details, including the working title: Probability and Statistics: a simulation-based introduction Bob Carpenter Monday, February 18, 2019 Ann Arbor SPARK, 330 East Liberty St, Ann Arbor I’ve been to […]

## American Phil Assoc Blog: The Stat Crisis of Science: Where are the Philosophers?

The Statistical Crisis of Science: Where are the Philosophers? February 14, 2019 by Blog Contributor, by Deborah G. Mayo This was published today on the American Philosophical Association blog. “[C]onfusion about the foundations of the subject is responsible, in my opinion, for much of the misuse of the statistics that one meets in fields of application such as […]

## Paul Erdos vs. Albert Brooks; Sid Caesar advances

The key question yesterday was, can Babe Didrikson Zaharias do comedy or can Sid Caesar do sports. According to Mark Palko, Sid Caesar was by all accounts extremely physically strong. And I know of no evidence that Babe was funny. So Your Show of Shows will be going into the third round. And now we […]

## Solving for probability given entropy

If a coin comes up heads with probability p and tails with probability 1-p, the entropy in the coin flip is S = –p log2 p – (1-p) log2 (1-p). It’s common to start with p and compute entropy, but recently I had to go the other way around: given entropy, solve for p. It’s easy to come up […]

## Simulation-based statistical testing in journalism

Jonathan Stray writes: In my recent Algorithms in Journalism course we looked at a post which makes a cute little significance-type argument that five Trump campaign payments were actually the $130,000 Daniels payoff. They summed to within a dollar of $130,000, so the simulation recreates sets of payments using bootstrapping and asks how often there’s […]

## O’Bayes 19: registration and travel support

An update about the O’Bayes 19 conference next June-July: the early registration period has now opened. And there should be funds for supporting early-career researchers, thanks to Google and CNRS sponsorships, as detailed below: Early-career researchers less than four years from PhD, are invited to apply for early-career scholarships. If you are a graduate student, […]

## I’m getting the point

A long-winded X validated discussion on the [textbook] mean-variance conjugate posterior for the Normal model left me [mildly] depressed at the point and use of answering questions on this forum. Especially as it came at the same time as a catastrophic outcome for my mathematical statistics exam. Possibly an incentive to quit X validated as […]

## I’m getting the point

A long-winded X validated discussion on the [textbook] mean-variance conjugate posterior for the Normal model left me [mildly] depressed at the point and use of answering questions on this forum. Especially as it came at the same time as a catastrophic outcome for my mathematical statistics exam. Possibly an incentive to quit X validated as […]

## Missing information anxiety

A recurring theme in math is that you may not need to do what it looks like you need to do. There may be a shortcut to where you want to go. A special case of this is that you may not need all the information that you think you need. For example, if you […]

## Sid Caesar vs. Babe Didrikson Zaharias (2); Jim Thorpe advances

Best comment from yesterday came from Dalton: Jim Thorpe isn’t from Pennsylvania, and yet a town there renamed itself after him. DJ Jazzy Jeff is from Pennsylvania, and yet Will Smith won’t even return his phone calls. Until I can enjoy a cold Yuengling in Jazzy Jeff, PA it’s DJ Jumpin’ Jim for the win. […]

## Sum-product theorem for finite fields

A week ago I wrote about using some Python code to play with the sum-product theorem of Erdős and Szemerédi and its conjectured refinement. This morning I learned that the Erdős-Szemerédi theorem has been extended to finite fields. David Johnston left a comment saying that he and his colleagues used this extension to finite fields as […]

## Michael Crichton on science and storytelling

Javier Benitez points us to this 1999 interview with techno-thriller writer Michael Crichton, who says: I come before you today as someone who started life with degrees in physical anthropology and medicine; who then published research on endocrinology, and papers in the New England Journal of Medicine, and even in the Proceedings of the Peabody […]

## Computing Legendre and Jacobi symbols

In a earlier post I introduce the Legendre symbol where a is a positive integer and p is prime. It is defined to be 0 if a is a multiple of p, 1 if a has a square root mod p, and -1 otherwise. The Jacobi symbol is a generalization of the Legendre symbol and uses the same notation. It […]

## a pen for ABC

Among the flury of papers arXived around the ICML 2019 deadline, I read on my way back from Oxford a paper by Wiqvist et al. on learning summary statistics for ABC by neural nets. Pointing out at another recent paper by Jiang et al. (2017, Statistica Sinica) which constructed a neural network for predicting each […]