Blog Archives

Seemingly intuitive and low math intros to Bayes never seem to deliver as hoped: Why?

August 2, 2017
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This post was prompted by recent nicely done videos by Rasmus Baath that provide an intuitive and low math introduction to Bayesian material. Now, I do not know that these have delivered less than he hoped for. Nor I have asked him. However, given similar material I and others have tried out in the past that […] The post Seemingly intuitive and low math intros to Bayes never seem to deliver…

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Take two on Laura Arnold’s TEDx talk.

May 24, 2017
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This post is by Keith. In this post I try to be more concise and direct about what I found of value in Laura Arnold’s TEDx talk that I recently blogged about here. Primarily it was the disclosure from someone who could afford to buy good evidence (and experts to assess it) that they did not think good […] The post Take two on Laura Arnold’s TEDx talk. appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Higher credence for the masses: From a Ted talk?

May 16, 2017
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The Four Most Dangerous Words? A New Study Shows | Laura Arnold | TEDxPennsylvaniaAvenue I brought this link forward in some comments but wanted to promote it to a post as I think its important and I know many folks just do not read comments. As I once heard claimed in a talk on risk […] The post Higher credence for the masses: From a Ted talk? appeared first on…

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Representists versus Propertyists: RabbitDucks – being good for what?

April 19, 2017
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It is not that unusual in statistics to get the same statistical output (uncertainty interval, estimate, tail probability,etc.) for every sample, or some samples or the same distribution of outputs or the same expectations of outputs or just close enough expectations of outputs. Then, I would argue one has a variation on a DuckRabbit. In […] The post Representists versus Propertyists: RabbitDucks – being good for what? appeared first on…

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Applying statistics in science will likely remain unreasonably difficult in my life time: but I have no intention of changing careers.

March 8, 2017
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Applying statistics in science will likely remain unreasonably difficult in my life time: but I have no intention of changing careers.

This post is by Keith.   (Image from deviantart.com) There are a couple posts I have been struggling to put together, one is on what science is or should be (drawing on Charles Peirce). The other is on why a posterior is not a posterior is not a posterior: even if mathematically equivalent – they are […] The post Applying statistics in science will likely remain unreasonably difficult in my life…

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The Prior: Fully comprehended last, put first, checked the least?

January 11, 2017
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The Prior: Fully comprehended last, put first, checked the least?

Priors are important in Bayesian inference. Some would even say : ” In Bayesian inference you can—OK, you must—assign a prior distribution representing the set of values the coefficient [i.e any unknown parameter] can be.” Although priors are put first in most expositions, my sense is that in most applications they are seldom considered first, are […] The post The Prior: Fully comprehended last, put first, checked the least? appeared first…

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Avoiding only the shadow knowing the motivating problem of a post.

December 12, 2016
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Avoiding only the shadow knowing the motivating problem of a post.

Graphic From Given I am starting to make some posts to this blog (again) I was pleased to run across a youtube of Xiao-Li Meng being interviewed on the same topic by Suzanne Smith the Director of the Center for Writing and Communicating Ideas. One thing I picked up was to make the problem being addressed […] The post Avoiding only the shadow knowing the motivating problem of a post. appeared…

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