Statistics

Statistics Blogs

60 yrs of Cox’s (1958) weighing machine, & links to binge-read the Likelihood Principle

December 27, 2017
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60 yrs of Cox’s (1958) weighing machine, & links to binge-read the Likelihood Principle

2018 will mark 60 years since the famous chestnut from Sir David Cox (1958). The example  “is now usually called the ‘weighing machine example,’ which draws attention to the need for conditioning, at least in certain types of problems” (Reid 1992, p. 582). When I describe it, you’ll find it hard to believe many regard […]

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Plotting Deep Learning Model Performance Trajectories

December 23, 2017
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Plotting Deep Learning Model Performance Trajectories

I am excited to share a new deep learning model performance trajectory graph. Here is an example produced based on Keras in R using ggplot2: The ideas include: We plot model performance as a function of training epoch, data set (training and validation), and metric. For legibility we facet on metric, and facets are adjusted … Continue reading Plotting Deep Learning Model Performance Trajectories

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A Bayesian analysis of polls in the Catalan elections

December 22, 2017
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A Bayesian analysis of polls in the Catalan elections

(Invited post by Virgilio Gómez-Rubio, UCLM, Albacete, Spain. Thanks Gianluca for the invitation!!)I have been involved in the planning and analysis or survey polls almost since I came back to Albacete 9 years ago. Last months in Spanish politics have...

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A Bayesian analysis of polls in the Catalan elections

December 22, 2017
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A Bayesian analysis of polls in the Catalan elections

(Invited post by Virgilio Gómez-Rubio, UCLM, Albacete, Spain. Thanks Gianluca for the invitation!!)I have been involved in the planning and analysis or survey polls almost since I came back to Albacete 9 years ago. Last months in Spanish politics have...

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Visible and invisible errors, and the nefarious power of suggestion

December 20, 2017
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Visible and invisible errors, and the nefarious power of suggestion

Kaiser Fung, founder of Applied Analytics at Columbia University and Principal Analytics Prep, the premier data analytics bootcamp from Harvard Business School Startup Studio, discusses how a software vendor uses the power of suggestion to seduce users into believing the accuracy of predictive analytics; and how such a tactic got exposed by the visibility of errors.

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Visible and invisible errors, and the nefarious power of suggestion

December 20, 2017
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Visible and invisible errors, and the nefarious power of suggestion

Kaiser Fung, founder of Applied Analytics at Columbia University and Principal Analytics Prep, the premier data analytics bootcamp from Harvard Business School Startup Studio, discusses how a software vendor uses the power of suggestion to seduce users into believing the accuracy of predictive analytics; and how such a tactic got exposed by the visibility of errors.

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How to Greatly Speed Up Your Spark Queries

December 20, 2017
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How to Greatly Speed Up Your Spark Queries

For some time we have been teaching R users "when working with wide tables on Spark or on databases: narrow to the columns you really want to work with early in your analysis." The idea behind the advice is: working with fewer columns makes for quicker queries. photo: Jacques Henri Lartigue 1912 The issue arises … Continue reading How to Greatly Speed Up Your Spark Queries

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Justice “actuarielle”, algorithmes… et données

December 19, 2017
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Justice “actuarielle”, algorithmes… et données

Il y a un peu plus d’un an, Virginie Gautron m’envoyait plein de documents sur la “justice actuarielle”, concept que je découvrais alors. Pour comprendre un peu de quoi il s’agit, je peux renvoyer vers pénalité et gestion des risques : vers une justice « actuarielle » en Europe ? qui dresse un état de l’art, en francais. J’avoue avoir un peu mis de côté ensuite (faute de temps), et…

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Does Peppa Pig encourage inappropriate use of primary care resources?

December 19, 2017
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Does Peppa Pig encourage inappropriate use of primary care resources?

This is a very important contribution to the medical literature, recently published in the BMJ.I think the sample size is probably not large enough to grant robust inference. And perhaps it would have been helpful to consider alternative settings, say ...

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Arnab Chakraborty on Bayes’ Theorem – The Central Equilibrium – Episode 3

Arnab Chakraborty kindly came to my new talk show, “The Central Equilibrium”, to talk about Bayes’ theorem.  He introduced the concept of conditional probability, stated Bayes’ theorem in its simple and general forms, and showe...

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