The relentless go at eroding and eventually banning abortion rights in the US has stepped even further with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) attempt at banning the European organisation Aid Access from providing abortive pills (Mifepristone and Misoprostol) to US women, based on the argument of “risk to consumers [sic] of unapproved new […]

# Category: Statistics

## Question 8 of our Applied Regression final exam (and solution to question 7)

Here’s question 8 of our exam: 8. Out of a random sample of 50 Americans, zero report having ever held political office. From this information, give a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of Americans who have ever held political office. And the solution to question 7: 7. You conduct an experiment in which some […]

## Trott’s constant

Trott’s constant is the unique number whose digits equal its continued fraction coefficients.

See OEIS sequence A039662.

More continued fraction posts

Best rational approximations to π

Continued fraction cryptography

Normal hazard continued fra…

## free Tuna Altinel

Tuna Altınel, an associate professor of mathematics at University Claude Bernard Lyon 1 since 1996 and a member of Institut Camille Jordan, was incarcerated by the Turkish authorities on Saturday 11 May, 2019. Internationally recognized as a mathematician, he is also a professor who stands as a model in clarity and dedication. He is also […]

## (Full) Excerpt. Excursion 5 Tour II: How Not to Corrupt Power (Power Taboos, Retro Power, and Shpower)

The concept of a test’s power is still being corrupted in the myriad ways discussed in 5.5, 5.6. I’m excerpting all of Tour II of Excursion 5, as I did with Tour I (of Statistical Inference as Severe Testing:How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars 2018, CUP)*. Originally the two Tours comprised just one, but […]

## Question 7 of our Applied Regression final exam (and solution to question 6)

Here’s question 7 of our exam: 7. You conduct an experiment in which some people get a special get-out-the-vote message and others do not. Then you follow up with a sample, after the election, to see if they voted. If you follow up with 500 people, how large an effect would you be able to […]

## A precursor of ABC-Gibbs

Following our arXival of ABC-Gibbs, Dennis Prangle pointed out to us a 2016 paper by Athanasios Kousathanas, Christoph Leuenberger, Jonas Helfer, Mathieu Quinodoz, Matthieu Foll, and Daniel Wegmann, Likelihood-Free Inference in High-Dimensional Model, published in Genetics, Vol. 203, 893–904 in June 2016. This paper contains a version of ABC Gibbs where parameters are sequentially simulated […]

## 75 years ago

## Technical books are amazing opportunities

Nina and I have been sending out drafts of our book Practical Data Science with R 2nd Edition for technical review. A few of the reviews came back from reviewers that described themselves with variations of: Senior Business Analyst for COMPANYNAME. I have been involved in presenting graphs of data for many years. To us … Continue reading Technical books are amazing opportunities

## Question 6 of our Applied Regression final exam (and solution to question 5)

Here’s question 6 of our exam: 6. You are applying hierarchical logistic regression on a survey of 1500 people to estimate support for a federal jobs program. The model is fit using, as a state-level predictor, the Republican presidential vote in the state. Which of the following two statements is basically true? (a) Adding a […]

## assessing MCMC convergence

When MCMC became mainstream in the 1990’s, there was a flurry of proposals to check, assess, and even guarantee convergence to the stationary distribution, as discussed in our MCMC book. Along with Chantal Guihenneuc and Kerrie Mengersen, we also maintained for a while a reviewww webpage categorising theses. Niloy Biswas and Pierre Jacob have recently […]

## Question 5 of our Applied Regression final exam (and solution to question 4)

Here’s question 5 of our exam: 5. You have just graded an exam with 28 questions and 15 students. You fit a logistic item-response model estimating ability, difficulty, and discrimination parameters. Which of the following statements are basically true? (a) If a question is answered correctly by students with low ability, but is missed by […]

## Tony nominations mean nothing

Someone writes: I searched up *Tony nominations mean nothing* and I found nothing. So I had to write this. There are currently 41 theaters that the Tony awards accept when nominating their choices. If we are being as generous as possible, we could say that every one of those theaters will be hosting a performance […]

## Using one RNG to sample another

Suppose you have two pseudorandom bit generators. They’re both fast, but not suitable for cryptographic use. How might you combine them into one generator that is suitable for cryptography? Coppersmith et al [1] had a simple but effective approach which they call the shrinking generator. The idea is to use one bit stream to sample […]

## non-uniform Laplace generation

This year, the French Statistical Society (SFDS) Prix Laplace has been granted to Luc Devroye, author of the Non-Uniform Random Generation bible. among many achievements!, prize that he will receive during the 2019 meeting in Nancy, this very week.

## Rock, paper, scissors, algebra

Aatish Bhatia posted something interesting on Twitter: if you define multiplication on Rock, Paper, Scissors to be the winner of a match, the result is commutative but not associative. Here’s a neat thing about the algebra of Rock, Paper, Scissors. If you define ‘multiplication’ as the game’s winner, then it’s commutative, i.e. P x R […]

## Question 4 of our Applied Regression final exam (and solution to question 3)

Here’s question 4 of our exam: 4. A researcher is imputing missing responses for income in a social survey of American households, using for the imputation a regression model given demographic variables. Which of the following two statements is basically true? (a) If you impute income deterministically using a fitted regression model (that is, imputing […]

## last call for O’Bayes in Warwick

This is a last call for late participants or would-be participants to the O’Bayes conference at the end of the month, in Warwick on 28 June – 02 July, and right after the BNP 12 conference. Posters can still be submitted to me and registrat…

## 30 years later… [30年后]

## Lawrence D. Brown PhD Student Award

[Reproduced from the IMS Bulletin, an announcement of a travel award for PhD students in celebration of my friend Larry Brown!] Lawrence D. Brown (1940-2018), Miers Busch Professor and Professor of Statistics at The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, had a distinguished academic career with groundbreaking contributions to a range of fields in theoretical and […]