This quick post is for any Stan users out there who are interested in working in baseball. The Los Angeles Angels are looking to hire a Director of Quantitative Analysis and they are particularly interested in candidates with experience fitting models …
Carlos Cruz writes: Here’s an economics joke. Two economists are walking along when they happen to end up in front of a Tesla showroom. One economist points to a shiny new car and says, “I want that!” The other economist replies, “You’re lying.” The premise of this joke is that if the one economist had […]
The post $ vs. votes appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Tom Daula points us to this post, “Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity,” by Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, and Giorgio Primiceri, and writes: The paper wants to distinguish between variable selection (sparse models) and shrinkage/regularization (dense models) for forecasting with Big Data. “We then conduct Bayesian inference on these two crucial parameters—model […]
The post “Economic predictions with big data” using partial pooling appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Paul Alper points to this news article in Health News Review, which says: A news release or story that proclaims a new treatment is “just as effective” or “comparable to” or “as good as” an existing therapy might spring from a non-inferiority trial. Technically speaking, these studies are designed to test whether an intervention is […]
The post These 3 problems destroy many clinical trials (in context of some papers on problems with non-inferiority trials, or problems with clinical trials in general) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
James Cutting writes: Movies have changed dramatically over the last 100 years. Several of these changes in popular English-language filmmaking practice are reflected in patterns of film style as distributed over the length of movies. In particular, arrangements of shot durations, motion, and luminance have altered and come to reflect aspects of the narrative form. […]
The post The evolution of pace in popular movies appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
I ran into a colleague the other day who’d never read Proofs and Refutations (full title: Proofs and Refutations: The Logic of Mathematical Discovery). He’d never even heard of it!
The post Hey! There are mathematicians out there whoR…
Stephen Senn Consultant Statistician Edinburgh Introduction In a previous post I considered Lord’s paradox from the perspective of the ‘Rothamsted School’ and its approach to the analysis of experiments. I now illustrate this in some detail giving an example. What I shall do I have simulated data from an experiment in which two diets have […]
Robert Wiblin writes: If we have a study on the impact of a social program in a particular place and time, how confident can we be that we’ll get a similar result if we study the same program again somewhere else? Dr Eva Vivalt . . . compiled a huge database of impact evaluations in […]
The post “She also observed that results from smaller studies conducted by NGOs – often pilot studies – would often look promising. But when governments tried to implement scaled-up versions of those programs, their performance would drop considerably.” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Dale Lehman sends along a paper, “The ballot order effect is huge: Evidence from Texas,” by Darren Grant, which begins: Texas primary and runoff elections provide an ideal test of the ballot order hypothesis, because ballot order is randomized within each county and there are many counties and contests to analyze. Doing so for all […]
The post A Bayesian take on ballot order effects appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
SIST* BLOG POSTS (up to Nov 17, 2018) Excerpts 05/19: The Meaning of My Title: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars 09/08: Excursion 1 Tour I: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement (1.1) 09/11: Excursion 1 Tour I (2nd stop): Probabilism, Performance, and Probativeness (1.2) 09/15: Excursion 1 Tour I (3rd stop): […]