I annotate and explain an example use of Poisson process modelling to test an important hypothesis about the frequency of mass shootings in Australia over time.
Author: free range statistics
Inferring a continuous distribution from binned data
I show how modelling the distribution of an underlying continuous variable that has been clouded by binning is much better way of understanding the data than crude methods dealing directly with the binned counts.
Forecasting unemployment
Forecasting unemployment is hard, with lots of complex bi-directional causality. Also, while AIC is asymptotically equivalent to cross-validation, it’s probably better to check. It turns out that interest rates or stock prices don’t have any useful inf…
Time series forecast cross-validation
I use time series forecast cross-validation to explore simulated data and sort out the real and the fake effects between variables.
Too important to leave to the data scientists
Data is good, data skills are better and a data skills plan is best.
Polls v results
The polls did worse than usual in predicting the Australian federal election, but the pundits were far worse than the polls.
House effects, herding, and the last few days before the election
A few small explorations of idiosyncracies with polls, a couple of days before the Australian federal election.
Familiarisation with the Australian Election Study
I familiarise myself with the 2016 Australian Election Study, a wonderful source of individual level data on attitudes and behaviour relating to voting.
Animating the US Treasury yield curve rates
I ponder the limitations of animation, and how much work is needed to turn a fun animation into a great story.
Using svglite with web fonts
svglite is a great way for producing good graphics for the web but there’s a small hack needed if you want to use web fonts with it.
Website with Australian federal election forecasts
I’ve put up a page with my current Australian federal election forecasts for the House of Representatives, which I’ll keep up to date until the election comes.
Better predictions for AFL from adjusted Elo ratings
I improve my AFL predictions by adjusting Elo ratings for home team advantage (varying by home team) and with a more data-driven approach to parameters for the actual ratings.
Better predictions for AFL from adjusted Elo ratings
I improve my AFL predictions by adjusting Elo ratings for home team advantage (varying by home team) and with a more data-driven approach to parameters for the actual ratings.
AFL teams Elo ratings and footy-tipping
I use Elo ratings from 12 months or from 120 years of AFL results to predict the results in the next round. Ppredictions based on just the past 12 months do better than those using the full history.
Exploring swings in Australian federal elections
I explore the data on two-party-preferred voting swings in Australian federal elections and tentatively introduce the ozfedelect R package.
Bayesian state space modelling of the Australian 2019 election
I tidy up Australian polling data back to 2007 and produce a statistical model of two-party-preferred vote for the coming election.
Seasonality in NZ voting preference?
I update the nzelect R package with the latest New Zealand polling data, and use a generalized additive model to look for a seasonal impact on support for the current government.
What the world agrees with
I load wave 6 of the World Values Survey into a database so it’s possible to analyse more questions and countries at once, and find some interesting variations in what people agree with in different parts of the world.
Simulating Persian Monarchs gameplay
Persian Monarchs described by P. G. Wodehouse in one of his funniest novels is an extremely simple fictional card game, but the gambling makes it a game of skill, and we can even construct plausible different strategies for winning. A good strategy inv…
Number of births in the twentieth century
It turns out that about 10 billion people were born in total in the twentieth century.