(This article was originally published at Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, and syndicated at StatsBlogs.)
Glenn Chisholm writes:
As a frequent visitor of your blog (a bit of a long time listener first time caller comment I know) I saw this particular controversy:
Summary:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6mLpCEIGEYGYl9RZWFRcmpsZk0/view?pref=2&pli=1
Very superficial analysis:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SdmBLFW9gISaqOyyz_fATgaFupI2-n6vWx80XRGUVBo/edit?pref=2&pli=1
and was interested if I could get you to blog on its actual statistic foundations, this particular paper has at least the appearance of respectability due to the institutions involved. As a permanent resident not a citizen I tend to be a little more abstracted from American politics, although I do enjoy the vigor in which it is played in the US. Based on some of the vitriol I have seen from all sides you may not want to touch this with a ten foot pole, but I thought it would be interesting to get a political scientist with credibility analysis out there publicly. There does seem to be this undercurrent in this cycle where a group genuinely feel that somehow they were disenfranchised, my take is Occam’s Razor applies here and no manipulation occurred, but my opinion is worthless.
My reply:
I don’t find this paper at all convincing. There can be all sorts of differences between different states, and that pie chart is a joke in that it hides the between-state variation within each group of states. You never know, fraud could always happen, but this is essentially zero evidence. Not that you’d need an explanation as to why a 74-year-old socialist fails to win a major-party nomination in the United States.
Also, regarding your comment about the institutions involved, I wouldn’t take the credentials so seriously; this Stanford guy is not a political scientist. Not that this means it’s necessarily wrong, but he’s not coming from a position of expertise. He’s just a guy, the Stanford affiliation gives no special credibility.
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