Bayesian statistics blogs
Read Part 1 When making a statement of the form “1/2 is the correct probability that this coin will land tails”, there are a few things which are left unsaid, but which are typically implied. The statement is one about the probability of an unknown event occurring, and it would seem reasonable to write this […]
I am currently working on a validation metric for binary prediction models. That is, models which make predictions about outcomes that can take on either of two possible states (eg Dead/not dead, heads/tails, cat in picture/no cat in picture, etc.) The most commonly used metric for this class of models is AUC, which assesses the […]
There will be a week-long introductory course in doing Bayesian data analysis, July 15-29 (2013), at Indiana University. There are many art, music, theater and social events happening that same week, including the International Harp Competition, the IU...
Reblogged from Zero to R Hero: Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Networks Annual General Meeting in Kananaskis, Alberta. May 03, 3:25-5:30. This 2-hour workshop will focus on how and why we do numerical simulation in R. Time permitting, we will also look at how to build and fit likelihood based statistical models. We ask that you bring your […]
Using the log-normal density can be confusing because it's parameterized in terms of the mean and precision of the log-scale data, not the original-scale data. Thus, if your data, y, are nicely described by a log-normal distribution, the estimated mean...
There will be a four-day introductory course in doing Bayesian data analysis, July 10-13 (2013), at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. The course is offered through the Summer School in Empirical Research Methods. Complete info is at this link:...
A great advantage of Bayesian analysis, in software such as JAGS/BUGS, is that you can create models that are appropriate to the data (instead of shoe-horning your data into inappropriate models). For example, suppose you have a design that would be an...
I’ve been showing my new favourite toys to just about anyone foolish enough to actually engage me in conversation. I described how my shiny new set of non-transitive dice work here, complete with a map showing all the relevant probabilities. All was neat and tidy and wonderful until fellow ecologist, Aaron Ball, tried to burst [...]
I’ve been showing my new favourite toys to just about anyone foolish enough to actually engage me in conversation. I described how my shiny new set of non-transitive dice work here, complete with a map showing all the relevant probabilities. All was neat and tidy and wonderful until fellow ecologist, Aaron Ball, tried to burst […]
There will be a week-long introductory course in doing Bayesian data analysis, July 15-29 (2013), at Indiana University. The course is offered through the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR). Complete info is at this l...
