Bayesian

Bayesian statistics blogs

Speaking at DataPhilly February 2016

February 5, 2016
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Speaking at DataPhilly February 2016

The next DataPhilly meetup will feature a medley of machine-learning talks, including an Intro to ML from yours truly. Check out the speakers list and be sure to RSVP. Hope to see you there! Thursday, February 18, 2016 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM Speakers: Corey Chivers Randy Olson Austin Rochford Corey Chivers (Penn Medicine) Abstract: […]

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The remains of R. A. Fisher are visited by Bayesians again

January 29, 2016
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The remains of R. A. Fisher are visited by Bayesians again

Thanks to Phillip Alday, the second edition of Doing Bayesian Data Analysis has visited the remains of R. A. Fisher at St. Peter's Cathedral in Adelaide. Here is a photo that Phillip snapped: In a previous post, the first edition visited Fisher's ...

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New digital feature editorship at the Psychonomic Society

January 19, 2016
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As of January 1, 2016, I am the new methods editor for the Psychonomic Society digital features. Steve Lewandowsky has written an introductory post with a bit of background, and my first post -- about Arsenault and Buchsbaum's recent article in Psychon...

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Asymmetric funnel plots without publication bias

January 9, 2016
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Asymmetric funnel plots without publication bias

In my last post about standardized effect sizes, I showed how averaging across trials before computing standardized effect sizes such as partial \(\eta^2\) and Cohen's d can produce arbitrary estimates of those quantities. This has drastic implications...

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Averaging can produce misleading standardized effect sizes

January 7, 2016
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Averaging can produce misleading standardized effect sizes

Recently, there have been many calls for a focus on effect sizes in psychological research. In this post, I discuss how naively using standardized effect sizes with averaged data can be misleading. This is particularly problematic for meta-analysis, where differences in number of trials across studies could lead to very misleading results.There are two main types of effect sizes in typical use: raw effect sizes and standardized effect sizes. Raw…

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(A pointer to) bayes.js: A Small Library for Doing MCMC in the Browser

December 31, 2015
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(A pointer to) bayes.js: A Small Library for Doing MCMC in the Browser

Screen shot from bayes.js blog post.This is just a pointer to a new post at Rasmus Bååth's Blog that might interest readers of DBDA2E. bayes.js: A small JavaScript library that implements an adaptive MCMC sampler and a couple of probability distribut...

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Lessons from Bayesian disease diagnosis: Don’t over-interpret the Bayes factor, VERSION 2

December 27, 2015
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Lessons from Bayesian disease diagnosis: Don’t over-interpret the Bayes factor, VERSION 2

[This is a revised version of a previous post which is superseded by this post. This revision has corrected derivations, new R/JAGS code, and new diagrams.] Overview"Captain, the prior probability of thischaracter dying and leaving the showis...

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Bayesian Item Response Theory in JAGS: A Hierarchical Two Parameter Logistic Model

December 22, 2015
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Bayesian Item Response Theory in JAGS: A Hierarchical Two Parameter Logistic Model

I recently created a hierarchical two-parameter logistic model for item response theory (IRT). The JAGS script is now in the folder of scripts that accompany the book (available at the book's web site; click book cover at right). Below are slides ...

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Lessons from Bayesian disease diagnosis: Don’t over-interpret the Bayes factor

December 12, 2015
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Lessons from Bayesian disease diagnosis: Don’t over-interpret the Bayes factor

This post has been revised and is now superseded by the new post linked >HERE<. Overview"Captain, the prior probability of thischaracter dying is extremely small."A primary example of Bayes' rule is for disease diagnosis (or illicit drug screenin...

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Confidence intervals: What they are and are not

December 3, 2015
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Confidence intervals: What they are and are not

Over at the Psychonomic Society Featured Content blog, there are several new articles outlining some of our work on confidence intervals published previously in Psychonomic Bulletin & Review. In a three-part series, Steve Lewandosky ...

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