# Bayesian

Bayesian statistics blogs

## Speaking at DataPhilly February 2016

February 5, 2016
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The next DataPhilly meetup will feature a medley of machine-learning talks, including an Intro to ML from yours truly. Check out the speakers list and be sure to RSVP. Hope to see you there! Thursday, February 18, 2016 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM Speakers: Corey Chivers Randy Olson Austin Rochford Corey Chivers (Penn Medicine) Abstract: […]

## The remains of R. A. Fisher are visited by Bayesians again

January 29, 2016
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Thanks to Phillip Alday, the second edition of Doing Bayesian Data Analysis has visited the remains of R. A. Fisher at St. Peter's Cathedral in Adelaide. Here is a photo that Phillip snapped: In a previous post, the first edition visited Fisher's ...

## New digital feature editorship at the Psychonomic Society

January 19, 2016
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As of January 1, 2016, I am the new methods editor for the Psychonomic Society digital features. Steve Lewandowsky has written an introductory post with a bit of background, and my first post -- about Arsenault and Buchsbaum's recent article in Psychon...

## Asymmetric funnel plots without publication bias

January 9, 2016
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In my last post about standardized effect sizes, I showed how averaging across trials before computing standardized effect sizes such as partial $$\eta^2$$ and Cohen's d can produce arbitrary estimates of those quantities. This has drastic implications...

## Averaging can produce misleading standardized effect sizes

January 7, 2016
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Recently, there have been many calls for a focus on effect sizes in psychological research. In this post, I discuss how naively using standardized effect sizes with averaged data can be misleading. This is particularly problematic for meta-analysis, where differences in number of trials across studies could lead to very misleading results.There are two main types of effect sizes in typical use: raw effect sizes and standardized effect sizes. Raw…

## (A pointer to) bayes.js: A Small Library for Doing MCMC in the Browser

December 31, 2015
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Screen shot from bayes.js blog post.This is just a pointer to a new post at Rasmus Bååth's Blog that might interest readers of DBDA2E. bayes.js: A small JavaScript library that implements an adaptive MCMC sampler and a couple of probability distribut...

## Lessons from Bayesian disease diagnosis: Don’t over-interpret the Bayes factor, VERSION 2

December 27, 2015
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[This is a revised version of a previous post which is superseded by this post. This revision has corrected derivations, new R/JAGS code, and new diagrams.] Overview"Captain, the prior probability of thischaracter dying and leaving the showis...

## Bayesian Item Response Theory in JAGS: A Hierarchical Two Parameter Logistic Model

December 22, 2015
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I recently created a hierarchical two-parameter logistic model for item response theory (IRT). The JAGS script is now in the folder of scripts that accompany the book (available at the book's web site; click book cover at right). Below are slides ...

## Lessons from Bayesian disease diagnosis: Don’t over-interpret the Bayes factor

December 12, 2015
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This post has been revised and is now superseded by the new post linked >HERE<. Overview"Captain, the prior probability of thischaracter dying is extremely small."A primary example of Bayes' rule is for disease diagnosis (or illicit drug screenin...

## Confidence intervals: What they are and are not

December 3, 2015
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Over at the Psychonomic Society Featured Content blog, there are several new articles outlining some of our work on confidence intervals published previously in Psychonomic Bulletin & Review. In a three-part series, Steve Lewandosky ...