Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

“Children seek historical traces of owned objects”

July 24, 2016
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Recently in the sister blog: An object’s mental representation includes not just visible attributes but also its nonvisible history. The present studies tested whether preschoolers seek subtle indicators of an object’s history, such as a mark acquired during its handling. Five studies with 169 children 3–5 years of age and 97 college students found that […] The post “Children seek historical traces of owned objects” appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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When do statistical rules affect drug approval?

July 22, 2016
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When do statistical rules affect drug approval?

Someone writes in: I have MS and take a disease-modifying drug called Copaxone. Sandoz developed a generic version​ of Copaxone​ and filed for FDA approval. Teva, the manufacturer of Copaxone, filed a petition opposing that approval (surprise!). FDA rejected Teva’s petitions and approved the generic. My insurance company encouraged me to switch to the generic. […] The post When do statistical rules affect drug approval? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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No, Google will not “sway the presidential election”

July 19, 2016
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Grrr, this is annoying. A piece of exaggerated science reporting hit PPNAS and was promoted in Politico, then Kaiser Fung and I shot it down (“Could Google Rig the 2016 Election? Don’t Believe the Hype”) in our Daily Beast column last September. Then it appeared again this week in a news article in the Christian […] The post No, Google will not “sway the presidential election” appeared first on Statistical…

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Replin’ ain’t easy: My very first preregistration

July 15, 2016
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Replin’ ain’t easy:  My very first preregistration

I’m doing my first preregistered replication. And it’s a lot of work! We’ve been discussing this for awhile—here’s something I published in 2013 in response to proposals by James Moneghan and by Macartan Humphreys, Raul Sanchez de la Sierra, and Peter van der Windt for preregistration in political science, here’s a blog discussion (“Preregistration: what’s […] The post Replin’ ain’t easy: My very first preregistration appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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About that claim that police are less likely to shoot blacks than whites

July 14, 2016
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About that claim that police are less likely to shoot blacks than whites

Josh Miller writes: Did you see this splashy NYT headline, “Surprising New Evidence Shows Bias in Police Use of Force but Not in Shootings”? It’s actually looks like a cool study overall, with granular data, and a ton of leg work, and rich set of results that extend beyond the attention grabbing headline that is […] The post About that claim that police are less likely to shoot blacks than…

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Of polls and prediction markets: More on #BrexitFail

July 13, 2016
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Of polls and prediction markets:  More on #BrexitFail

David “Xbox poll” Rothschild and I wrote an article for Slate on how political prediction markets can get things wrong. The short story is that in settings where direct information is not easily available (for example, in elections where polls are not viewed as trustworthy forecasts, whether because of problems in polling or anticipated volatility […] The post Of polls and prediction markets: More on #BrexitFail appeared first on Statistical…

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Retro 1990s post

July 11, 2016
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Retro 1990s post

I have one more for you on the topic of jail time for fraud . . . Paul Alper points us to a news article entitled, “Michael Hubbard, Former Alabama Speaker, Sentenced to 4 Years in Prison.” From the headline this doesn’t seem like such a big deal, just run-of-the-mill corruption that we see all […] The post Retro 1990s post appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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“Most notably, the vast majority of Americans support criminalizing data fraud, and many also believe the offense deserves a sentence of incarceration.”

July 11, 2016
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“Most notably, the vast majority of Americans support criminalizing data fraud, and many also believe the offense deserves a sentence of incarceration.”

Justin Pickett sends along this paper he wrote with Sean Roche: Data fraud and selective reporting both present serious threats to the credibility of science. However, there remains considerable disagreement among scientists about how best to sanction data fraud, and about the ethicality of selective reporting. OK, let’s move away from asking scientists. Let’s ask […] The post “Most notably, the vast majority of Americans support criminalizing data fraud, and…

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Over at the sister blog, they’re overinterpreting forecasts

July 10, 2016
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Matthew Atkinson and Darin DeWitt write, “Economic forecasts suggest the presidential race should be a toss-up. So why aren’t Republicans doing better?” Their question arises from a juxtaposition of two apparently discordant facts: 1. “PredictWise gives the Republicans a 35 percent chance of winning the White House.” 2. A particular forecasting model (one of many […] The post Over at the sister blog, they’re overinterpreting forecasts appeared first on Statistical…

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Causal mediation

July 7, 2016
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Causal mediation

Judea Pearl points me to this discussion with Kosuke Imai at a conference on causal mediation. I continue to think that the most useful way to think about mediation is in terms of a joint or multivariate outcome, and I continue to think that if we want to understand mediation, we need to think about […] The post Causal mediation appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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