Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

Looking at the polls: Time to get down and dirty with the data

September 26, 2016
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Looking at the polls:  Time to get down and dirty with the data

Poll aggregation is great, but one thing that we’ve been saying a lot recently (see also here) is that we can also learn a lot by breaking open a survey and looking at the numbers crawling around inside. Here’s a new example. It comes from Alan Abramowitz, who writes: Very strange results of new ABC/WP […] The post Looking at the polls: Time to get down and dirty with the…

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Politics and chance

September 25, 2016
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After the New Hampshire primary Nadia Hassan wrote: Some have noted how minor differences in how the candidates come out in these primaries can make a huge difference in the media coverage. For example, only a few thousand voters separate third and fifth and it really impacts how pundits talk about a candidate’s performance. Chance […] The post Politics and chance appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Trump +1 in Florida; or, a quick comment on that “5 groups analyze the same poll” exercise

September 23, 2016
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Trump +1 in Florida; or, a quick comment on that “5 groups analyze the same poll” exercise

Nate Cohn at the New York Times arranged a comparative study on a recent Florida pre-election poll. He sent the raw data to four groups (Charles Franklin; Patrick Ruffini; Margie Omero, Robert Green, Adam Rosenblatt; and Sam Corbett-Davies, David Rothschild, and me) and asked each of us to analyze the data how we’d like to […] The post Trump +1 in Florida; or, a quick comment on that “5 groups…

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“Evaluating Online Nonprobability Surveys”

September 15, 2016
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Courtney Kennedy, Andrew Mercer, Scott Keeter, Nick Hatley, Kyley McGeeney and Alejandra Gimenez wrote this very reasonable report for Pew Research. Someone should send a copy to Michael W. Link or whoever’s running the buggy-whip show nowadays....

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Q: “Is A 50-State Poll As Good As 50 State Polls?” A: Use Mister P.

September 9, 2016
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Jeff Lax points to this post from Nate Silver and asks for my thoughts. In his post, Nate talks about data quality issues of national and state polls. It’s a good discussion, but the one thing he unfortunately doesn’t talk about is multilevel regression and poststratification (or see here for more). What you want to […] The post Q: “Is A 50-State Poll As Good As 50 State Polls?” A:…

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Polling in the 21st century: There ain’t no urn

September 7, 2016
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Polling in the 21st century:  There ain’t no urn

David Rothschild writes: The Washington Post (WaPo) utilized Survey Monkey (SM) to survey 74,886 registered voters in all 50 states on who they would vote for in the upcoming election. I am very excited about the work, because I am a huge proponent of advancing polling methodology, but the methodological explanation and data detail bring […] The post Polling in the 21st century: There ain’t no urn appeared first on…

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Why 2016 is not like 1964 and 1972

September 1, 2016
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Nadia Hassan writes: I saw your article in Slate. For what it’s worth, this new article, “Ideologically Extreme Candidates in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948–2012,” by Marty Cohen, Mary McGrath, Peter Aronow, and John Zaller, looks at ideology-based extremism and finds weak effects of ideology. Like the high end is 1980 and the authors estimate Carter […] The post Why 2016 is not like 1964 and 1972 appeared first on Statistical…

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Evaluating election forecasts

August 30, 2016
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Nadia Hassan writes: Nate Silver did a review of pre-election predictions from forecasting models in 2012. The overall results were not great, but many scholars noted that some models seemed to do quite well. You mentioned that you were interested in how top-notch models fare. Nate agreed that some were better, but he raised the […] The post Evaluating election forecasts appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Who owns your code and text and who can use it legally? Copyright and licensing basics for open-source

August 28, 2016
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Who owns your code and text and who can use it legally?  Copyright and licensing basics for open-source

I am not a lawyer (“IANAL” in web-speak); but even if I were, you should take this with a grain of salt (same way you take everything you hear from anyone). If you want the straight dope for U.S. law, see the U.S. government Copyright FAQ; it’s surprisingly clear for government legalese. What is copyrighted? […] The post Who owns your code and text and who can use it legally?…

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Oooh, it burns me up

August 28, 2016
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Oooh, it burns me up

If any of you are members of the Marketing Research Association, could you please contact them and ask them to change their position on this issue: I have a feeling they won’t mind if you call them at home. With an autodialer. “Pollsters now must hand-dial cellphones, at great expense,” indeed. It’s that expensive to […] The post Oooh, it burns me up appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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