Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

Go to PredictWise for forecast probabilities of events in the news

April 19, 2015
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Go to PredictWise for forecast probabilities of events in the news

I like it. Clear, transparent, no mumbo jumbo about their secret sauce. But . . . what’s with the hyper-precision: C’mon. “27.4%”? Who are you kidding?? (See here for explication of this point.) The post Go to PredictWise ...

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Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality

April 17, 2015
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I sent my post about the political implication of behavioral economics, embodied cognition, etc., to Gerd Gigerenzer, who commented as follows: The “half-empty” versus “half-full” explanation of the differences between Kahneman and us misses the essential point: the difference is about the nature of the glass of rationality, not the level of the water. For […] The post Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Item-response and ideal point models

April 15, 2015
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To continue from today’s class, here’s what we’ll be discussing next time: - Estimating the direction and the magnitude of the discrimination parameters. - How to tell when your data don’t fit the model. - When does ideal-point modeling make a difference? Comparing ideal-point estimates to simple averages of survey responses. P.S. Unlike the previous […] The post Item-response and ideal point models appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Outside pissing in

April 7, 2015
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Outside pissing in

Coral Davenport writes in the New York Times: Mr. Tribe, 73, has been retained to represent Peabody Energy, the nation’s largest coal company, in its legal quest to block an Environmental Protection Agency regulation that would cut carbon dioxide emissions from the nation’s coal-fired power plants . . . Mr. Tribe likened the climate change […] The post Outside pissing in appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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This is why I’m a political scientist and not a psychologist

April 5, 2015
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I can understand how people can hold all sorts of wacked-out political views (after all, in the past, people have supported ideas as crazy as abolitionism, polygamy, monarchy, and the nationalization of the means of production), but certain things in psychology just continue to baffle me, even though I know they’re true. The most recent […] The post This is why I’m a political scientist and not a psychologist appeared…

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Time-release pedagogy??

March 31, 2015
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Time-release pedagogy??

Mark Palko points to this report and writes: Putting aside my concerns with the “additional years of learning” metric (and I have a lot of them), I have the feeling that there’s something strange here or i’m missing something obvious. That jump from 3-year impact to 4-year seems excessive. The press release links to a […] The post Time-release pedagogy?? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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How is ethics like logistic regression?

March 30, 2015
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Ethics decisions, like statistical inferences, are informative only if they’re not too easy or too hard. For the full story, read the whole thing. The post How is ethics like logistic regression? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inf...

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“Voices from everywhere saying gently: This we praise. This we don’t.”

March 10, 2015
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One of America’s leading political columnists, David Brooks, has just come out with a column called “The Cost of Relativism” about the growing chasm between college-educated America and those who write for major newspapers. It’s got a definitive collection of data about this divide. Just kidding about the “definitive collection of data.” Anyway, to continue: […] The post “Voices from everywhere saying gently: This we praise. This we don’t.” appeared…

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My talk tomorrow (Thurs) at MIT political science: Recent challenges and developments in Bayesian modeling and computation (from a political and social science perspective)

March 4, 2015
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It’s 1pm in room E53-482. I’ll talk about the usual stuff (and some of this too, I guess). The post My talk tomorrow (Thurs) at MIT political science: Recent challenges and developments in Bayesian modeling and computation (from a politica...

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When the evidence is unclear

February 11, 2015
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A few months ago I posted on a paper by Bernard Tanguy et al. on a field experiment in Ethiopia where I couldn’t figure out, from the article, where was the empirical support for the claims being made. This was not the first time I’d had this feeling about a claim made in social science […] The post When the evidence is unclear appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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