Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim that subliminal smiley-faces can have big effects on political attitudes

September 23, 2014
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Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim that subliminal smiley-faces can have big effects on political attitudes

We had a discussion last month on the sister blog regarding the effects of subliminal messages on political attitudes.  It started with a Larry Bartels post entitled “Here’s how a cartoon smiley face punched a big hole in democratic theory,” with the subtitle, “Fleeting exposure to ‘irrelevant stimuli’ powerfully shapes our assessments of policy arguments,” discussing the […] The post Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim that subliminal smiley-faces can…

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“How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry”

September 22, 2014
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David Rothschild (coauthor of the Xbox study, the Mythical Swing Voter paper, and of course the notorious Aapor note) will be speaking Friday 10 Oct in the Economics and Big Data meetup in NYC. His title: “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry: information aggregation using non-representative polling data.” Should be fun! P.P.S. […] The post “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry” appeared first on…

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What does CNN have in common with Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and Richard Tol: They all made foolish, embarrassing errors that would never have happened had they been using R Markdown

September 19, 2014
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What does CNN have in common with Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and Richard Tol:  They all made foolish, embarrassing errors that would never have happened had they been using R Markdown

Rachel Cunliffe shares this delight: Had the CNN team used an integrated statistical analysis and display system such as R Markdown, nobody would’ve needed to type in the numbers by hand, and the above embarrassment never would’ve occurred. And CNN should be embarrassed about this: it’s much worse than a simple typo, as it indicates […] The post What does CNN have in common with Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and…

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Palko’s on a roll

September 18, 2014
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I just wanted to interrupt our scheduled stream of posts to link to a bunch of recent material from Mark Palko: At least we can all agree that ad hominem and overly general attacks are bad: A savvy critique of the way in which opposition of any sort can be dismissed as “ad hominem” attacks. […] The post Palko’s on a roll appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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More bad news for the buggy-whip manufacturers

September 15, 2014
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More bad news for the buggy-whip manufacturers

In a news article regarding difficulties in using panel surveys to measure the unemployment rate, David Leonhardt writes: The main factor is technology. It’s a major cause of today’s response-rate problems – but it’s also the solution. For decades, survey research has revolved around the telephone, and it’s worked very well. But Americans’ relationship with […] The post More bad news for the buggy-whip manufacturers appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Suspiciously vague graph purporting to show “percentage of slaves or serfs in the world”

September 9, 2014
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Suspiciously vague graph purporting to show “percentage of slaves or serfs in the world”

Phillip Middleton sent this along, it’s from Peter Diamandis, who is best known for his X Prize, the “global leader in the creation of incentivized prize competitions.” Diamandis wrote: Phillip Middleton, Is technology making you work harder? Or giving you more time off? Seriously, it feels like it’s enabling me to work around the clock! […] The post Suspiciously vague graph purporting to show “percentage of slaves or serfs in…

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My talk at the Simons Foundation this Wed 5pm

September 8, 2014
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Anti-Abortion Democrats, Jimmy Carter Republicans, and the Missing Leap Day Babies: Living with Uncertainty but Still Learning To learn about the human world, we should accept uncertainty and embrace variation. We illustrate this concept with various examples from our recent research (the above examples are with Yair Ghitza and Aki Vehtari) and discuss more generally […] The post My talk at the Simons Foundation this Wed 5pm appeared first on…

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How does inference for next year’s data differ from inference for unobserved data from the current year?

September 6, 2014
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Juliet Price writes: I recently came across your blog post from 2009 about how statistical analysis differs when analyzing an entire population rather than a sample. I understand the part about conceptualizing the problem as involving a stochastic data generating process, however, I have a query about the paragraph on ‘making predictions about future cases, […] The post How does inference for next year’s data differ from inference for unobserved…

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Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals?

September 4, 2014
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Gabriel Power asks the above question, writing: I don’t recall seeing, on your blog or elsewhere, this question raised directly. Of course there is much talk about the importance of replication, mostly by statisticians, and economists are grudgingly following suit with top journals requiring datasets and code. But why not make it a simple requirement? […] The post Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals? appeared first on…

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Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research

August 29, 2014
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One of my favorites, from 1995. Don Rubin and I argue with Adrian Raftery. Here’s how we begin: Raftery’s paper addresses two important problems in the statistical analysis of social science data: (1) choosing an appropriate model when so much data are available that standard P-values reject all parsimonious models; and (2) making estimates and […] The post Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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