Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

Bad Numbers: Media-savvy Ivy League prof publishes textbook with a corrupted dataset

June 26, 2017
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Bad Numbers:  Media-savvy Ivy League prof publishes textbook with a corrupted dataset

[cat picture] I might not have noticed this one, except that it happened to involve Congressional elections, and this is an area I know something about. The story goes like this. I’m working to finish up Regression and Other Stories, going through the examples. There’s one where we fit a model to predict the 1988 […] The post Bad Numbers: Media-savvy Ivy League prof publishes textbook with a corrupted dataset…

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Analyze all your comparisons. That’s better than looking at the max difference and trying to do a multiple comparisons correction.

June 25, 2017
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Analyze all your comparisons.  That’s better than looking at the max difference and trying to do a multiple comparisons correction.

[cat picture] The following email came in: I’m in a PhD program (poli sci) with a heavy emphasis on methods. One thing that my statistics courses emphasize, but that doesn’t get much attention in my poli sci courses, is the problem of simultaneous inferences. This strikes me as a problem. I am a bit unclear […] The post Analyze all your comparisons. That’s better than looking at the max difference…

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Incentives Matter (Congress and Wall Street edition)

June 24, 2017
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[cat picture] Thomas Ferguson sends along this paper. From the summary: Social scientists have traditionally struggled to identify clear links between political spending and congressional voting, and many journalists have embraced their skepticism. A giant stumbling block has been the challenge of measuring the labyrinthine ways money flows from investors, firms, and industries to particular […] The post Incentives Matter (Congress and Wall Street edition) appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences

June 22, 2017
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Jamie Druckman writes: Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS) is an NSF-funded initiative. Investigators propose survey experiments to be fielded using a nationally representative Internet platform via NORC’s AmeriSpeak® Panel (see http:/tessexperiments.org for more information). In an effort to enable younger scholars to field larger-scale studies than what TESS normally conducts, we are pleased to announce a Special […] The post Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Statistical Challenges of Survey Sampling and Big Data (my remote talk in Bologna this Thurs, 15 June, 4:15pm)

June 13, 2017
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Statistical Challenges of Survey Sampling and Big Data Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University, New York Big Data need Big Model. Big Data are typically convenience samples, not random samples; observational comparisons, not controlled experiments; available data, not measurements designed for a particular study. As a result, it is […] The post Statistical Challenges of Survey Sampling and Big Data (my remote talk in…

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UK election summary

June 9, 2017
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UK election summary

The Conservative party, led by Theresa May, defeated the Labour party, led by Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservative party got 42% of the vote, Labour got 40% of the vote, and all the other parties received 18% between them. The Conservatives ended up with 51.5% of the two-party vote, just a bit less than Hillary Clinton’s […] The post UK election summary appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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You’ll never guess this one quick trick to diagnose problems with your graphs and then make improvements

June 2, 2017
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You’ll never guess this one quick trick to diagnose problems with your graphs and then make improvements

The trick is to consider graphs as comparisons. Here’s the story. This post from several years ago shows a confusing and misleading pair of pie charts from a Kenyan election: The quick reaction would be to say, ha ha, pie charts. But that’s not my point here. Sure, pie charts have problems and I think […] The post You’ll never guess this one quick trick to diagnose problems with your…

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U.K. news article congratulates YouGov on using modern methods in polling inference

June 1, 2017
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U.K. news article congratulates YouGov on using modern methods in polling inference

Mike Betancourt pointed me to this news article by Alan Travis that is refreshingly positive regarding the use of sophisticated statistical methods in analyzing opinion polls. Here’s Travis: Leading pollsters have described YouGov’s “shock poll” predicting a hung parliament on 8 June as “brave” and the decision by the Times to splash it on its […] The post U.K. news article congratulates YouGov on using modern methods in polling inference…

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Try asking someone in the real estate business

May 30, 2017
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This came in the email: Dear Professor Gelman, Hi. My name is ** and I am a 5th grade student at ** School in **, NY. I am in Mr. **’s class and we are working on our graduating project called Capstone! I am studying how how President Trump’s business life affects his job as […] The post Try asking someone in the real estate business appeared first on Statistical…

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Mike Bostock graphs federal income tax brackets and tax rates, and I connect to some general principles of statistical graphics

May 28, 2017
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Mike Bostock graphs federal income tax brackets and tax rates, and I connect to some general principles of statistical graphics

Mike “d3” Bostock writes: Regarding the Vox graph on federal tax brackets, here is a quick-and-dirty visualization of effective tax rates for a given taxable income and year. However, there is a big caveat: estimating the effective tax rate based on actual income is much harder since it depends on the claimed deductions. This could […] The post Mike Bostock graphs federal income tax brackets and tax rates, and I…

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