Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit?

June 27, 2016
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Here’s a news item: Emboldened by Brexit, U.S. secessionists in Texas are keen to adopt the campaign tactics used to sway the British vote for leaving the European Union and are demanding “Texit” comes next. . . . “The Texas Nationalist Movement is formally calling on the Texas governor to support a similar vote for […] The post How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit? appeared first on…

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Brexit polling: What went wrong?

June 24, 2016
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Brexit polling:  What went wrong?

Commenter numeric writes: Since you were shilling for yougov the other day you might want to talk about their big miss on Brexit (off by 6% from their eve-of-election poll—remain up 2 on their last poll and leave up by 4 as of this posting). Fair enough: Had Yougov done well, I could use them […] The post Brexit polling: What went wrong? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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YouGov uses Mister P for Brexit poll

June 21, 2016
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YouGov uses Mister P for Brexit poll

Ben Lauderdale and Doug Rivers give the story: There has been a lot of noise in polling on the upcoming EU referendum. Unlike the polls before the 2015 General Election, which were in almost perfect agreement (though, of course, not particularly close to the actual outcome), this time the polls are in serious disagreement. Telephone […] The post YouGov uses Mister P for Brexit poll appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Why I don’t believe the claim that Fox News can get Trump elected

June 20, 2016
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Full story in the sister blog. Short story is that some economists did some out-of-control extrapolations. More of my recent sister blog entries here. The post Why I don’t believe the claim that Fox News can get Trump elected appeared first on Stati...

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Difficulty of communication in our supersaturated media environment

June 18, 2016
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Gregory Gelembiuk writes: I was wondering if you might take a look at this and, if so inclined, do some public shredding. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6mLpCEIGEYGYl9RZWFRcmpsZk0/view?pref=2&pli=1 http://www.snopes.com/stanford-study-proves-election-fraud-through-exit-poll-discrepancies/ http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2016/6/13/11420/5989 Claims of electoral fraud have become increasingly popular among political progressives in the last several years and, unfortunately, appear to be gaining critical mass (especially with Sanders’ loss). The “study” […] The post Difficulty of communication in our supersaturated media environment appeared first on Statistical…

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Comment on network analysis of online ISIS activity

June 16, 2016
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Two different journalists asked me about this paper, “New online ecology of adversarial aggregates: ISIS and beyond,” N. F. Johnson, M. Zheng, Y. Vorobyeva, A. Gabriel, H. Qi, N. Velasquez, P. Manrique, D. Johnson, E. Restrepo, C. Song, S. Wuchty, a paper that begins: Support for an extremist entity such as Islamic State (ISIS) somehow […] The post Comment on network analysis of online ISIS activity appeared first on Statistical…

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You’ll never guess what I’ll say about this paper claiming election fraud! (OK, actually probably you can guess.)

June 16, 2016
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Glenn Chisholm writes: As a frequent visitor of your blog (a bit of a long time listener first time caller comment I know) I saw this particular controversy: Summary: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6mLpCEIGEYGYl9RZWFRcmpsZk0/view?pref=2&pli=1 Very superficial analysis: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SdmBLFW9gISaqOyyz_fATgaFupI2-n6vWx80XRGUVBo/edit?pref=2&pli=1 and was interested if I could get you to blog on its actual statistic foundations, this particular paper has at least […] The post You’ll never guess what I’ll say about this paper claiming election fraud!…

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“Smaller Share of Women Ages 65 and Older Are Living Alone,” before and after age adjusment

June 14, 2016
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“Smaller Share of Women Ages 65 and Older Are Living Alone,” before and after age adjusment

After noticing this from a recent Pew Research report: Ben Hanowell wrote: This made me [Hanowell] think of your critique of Case and Deaton’s finding about non-Hispanic mortality. I wonder how much these results are driven by the fact that the population of adults aged 65 and older has gotten older with increasing lifespans, etc […] The post “Smaller Share of Women Ages 65 and Older Are Living Alone,” before…

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They threatened to sue Mike Spagat but that’s not shutting him up

June 13, 2016
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Mike Spagat, famous for blowing the whistle on that Iraq survey (the so-called Lancet study) ten years ago, writes: I’ve just put up the story about how a survey research company threatened to sue me to keep me quiet. I’ve also put up a lot of data that readers can analyse if they want to […] The post They threatened to sue Mike Spagat but that’s not shutting him up…

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No, I’m not convinced by this one either.

June 11, 2016
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No, I’m not convinced by this one either.

Alex Gamma sends along a recently published article by Carola Salvi, Irene Cristofori, Jordan Grafman, and Mark Beeman, along with the note: This might be of interest to you, since it’s political science and smells bad. From The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology: Two groups of 22 college students each identified as conservatives or liberals […] The post No, I’m not convinced by this one either. appeared first on Statistical…

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