Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

Looking for rigor in all the wrong places

January 21, 2017
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Looking for rigor in all the wrong places

My talk in the upcoming conference on Inference from Non Probability Samples, 16-17 Mar in Paris: Looking for rigor in all the wrong places What do the following ideas and practices have in common: unbiased estimation, statistical significance, insistence on random sampling, and avoidance of prior information? All have been embraced as ways of enforcing […] The post Looking for rigor in all the wrong places appeared first on Statistical…

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“Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically.”

January 19, 2017
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“Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically.”

Last year there was much discussion here and elsewhere about a paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton, who noticed that death rates for non-Hispanic white Americans aged 45-54 had been roughly flat since 1999, even while the death rates for this age category had been declining steadily in other countries and among nonwhite Americans. […] The post “Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence…

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Come and work with us!

January 18, 2017
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Stan is an open-source, state-of-the-art probabilistic programming language with a high-performance Bayesian inference engine written in C++. Stan had been successfully applied to modeling problems with hundreds of thousands of parameters in fields as diverse as econometrics, sports analytics, physics, pharmacometrics, recommender systems, political science, and many more. Research using Stan has been featured in […] The post Come and work with us! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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“If the horse race polls were all wrong about Trump, why should his approval rating polls be any better?”

January 17, 2017
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A journalist forwarded the above question to me and asked what I thought. My reply is that the horse race polls were not all wrong about Trump. The polls had him at approx 48% of the two-party vote and he received 49%. The polls were wrong by a few percentage points in some key swing […] The post “If the horse race polls were all wrong about Trump, why should…

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No evidence of incumbency disadvantage?

January 14, 2017
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No evidence of incumbency disadvantage?

Several years ago I learned that the incumbency advantage in India was negative! There, the politicians are so unpopular that when they run for reelection they’re actually at a disadvantage, on average, compared to fresh candidates. At least, that’s what I heard. But Andy Hall and Anthony Fowler just wrote a paper claiming that, no, […] The post No evidence of incumbency disadvantage? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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When do stories work, Process tracing, and Connections between qualitative and quantitative research

January 11, 2017
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When do stories work, Process tracing, and Connections between qualitative and quantitative research

Jonathan Stray writes: I read your “when do stories work” paper (with Thomas Basbøll) with interest—as a journalist stories are of course central to my field. I wondered if you had encountered the “process tracing” literature in political science? It attempts to make sense of stories as “case studies” and there’s a nice logic of […] The post When do stories work, Process tracing, and Connections between qualitative and quantitative…

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The Lure of Luxury

January 8, 2017
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The Lure of Luxury

From the sister blog, a response to an article by psychologist Paul Bloom on why people own things they don’t really need: Paul Bloom argues that humans dig deep, look beyond the surface, and attend to the nonobvious in ways that add to our pleasure and appreciation of the world of objects. I [Susan] wholly […] The post The Lure of Luxury appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Field Experiments and Their Critics

January 3, 2017
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Seven years ago I was contacted by Dawn Teele, who was then a graduate student and is now a professor of political science, and asked for my comments on an edited book she was preparing on social science experiments and their critics. I responded as follows: This is a great idea for a project. My […] The post Field Experiments and Their Critics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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About that claim in the Monkey Cage that North Korea had “moderate” electoral integrity . . .

January 3, 2017
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Yesterday I wrote about problems with the Electoral Integrity Project, a set of expert surveys that are intended to “evaluate the state of the world’s elections” but have some problems, notably rating more than half of the U.S. states in 2016 as having lower integrity than Cuba (!) and North Korea (!!!) in 2014. I […] The post About that claim in the Monkey Cage that North Korea had “moderate”…

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“Constructing expert indices measuring electoral integrity” — reply from Pippa Norris

January 3, 2017
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This morning I posted a criticism of the Electoral Integrity Project, a survey organized by Pippa Norris and others to assess elections around the world. Norris sent me a long response which I am posting below as is. I also invited Andrew Reynolds, the author of the controversial op-ed, to contribute to the discussion. Here’s […] The post “Constructing expert indices measuring electoral integrity” — reply from Pippa Norris appeared…

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