Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

Should the Problems with Polls Make Us Worry about the Quality of Health Surveys? (my talk at CDC tomorrow)

February 20, 2017
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My talk this Thursday at CDC, Tuesday, February 21, 2017, 12:00 noon, 2400 Century Center, Room 1015C: Should the Problems with Polls Make Us Worry about the Quality of Health Surveys? Response rates in public opinion polls have been steadily declining for more than half a century and are currently heading toward the 0% mark. […] The post Should the Problems with Polls Make Us Worry about the Quality of…

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How important is gerrymandering? and How to most effectively use one’s political energy?

February 15, 2017
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Andy Stein writes: I think a lot of people (me included) would be interested to read an updated blog post from you on gerrymandering, even if your conclusions haven’t changed at all from your 2009 blog post [see also here]. Lots of people are talking about it now and Obama seems like he’ll be working […] The post How important is gerrymandering? and How to most effectively use one’s political…

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When do protests affect policy?

February 1, 2017
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When do protests affect policy?

Gur Huberman writes that he’s been wondering for many years about this question: One function of protests is to vent out the protesters’ emotions. When do protests affect policy? In dictatorships there are clear examples of protests affecting reality, e.g., in Eastern Europe in 1989. It’s harder to find such clear examples in democracies. And […] The post When do protests affect policy? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Age period cohort brouhaha

January 29, 2017
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Age period cohort brouhaha

Hi everybody! In August, I announced a break from blogging. And this is my first new post since then. (not counting various interpolated topical items on polling, elections, laughable surveys comparing North Carolina to North Korea, junk science on pizza prices, etc) I’m still trying to figure out how to do this; I have a […] The post Age period cohort brouhaha appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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How to attack human rights and the U.S. economy at the same time

January 28, 2017
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I received this email from a postdoc in a technical field: As you might have heard, Trump signed an executive order today issuing a 30-day total suspension of visas and other immigration benefits for the citizens of Iran and six other countries. For my wife and me, this means that our visas are suspended; we […] The post How to attack human rights and the U.S. economy at the same…

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Let’s try to understand our own contradictions (what P. J. O’Rourke gets but Michael Lind doesn’t)

January 25, 2017
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Let’s try to understand our own contradictions (what P. J. O’Rourke gets but Michael Lind doesn’t)

One way to understand the limitations of our own political attitudes is to recognize that other people think differently. Not just oppositely, but differently. To put it algebraically, suppose you believe A, B, C, D, E. OK, you won’t be surprised to hear that some people believe not-A, not-B, not-C, not-D, not-E. These are the […] The post Let’s try to understand our own contradictions (what P. J. O’Rourke gets…

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George Orwell on “alternative facts”

January 23, 2017
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Paul Alper points me to this quote from George Orwell’s 1943 essay, Looking Back on the Spanish War: I know it is the fashion to say that most of recorded history is lies anyway. I am willing to believe that history is for the most part inaccurate and biased, but what is peculiar to our […] The post George Orwell on “alternative facts” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Quantifying uncertainty in identification assumptions—this is important!

January 22, 2017
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Quantifying uncertainty in identification assumptions—this is important!

Luis Guirola writes: I’m a poli sci student currently working on methods. I’ve seen you sometimes address questions in your blog, so here is one in case you wanted. I recently read some of Chuck Manski book “Identification for decision and prediction”. I take his main message to be “The only way to get identification […] The post Quantifying uncertainty in identification assumptions—this is important! appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Looking for rigor in all the wrong places

January 21, 2017
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Looking for rigor in all the wrong places

My talk in the upcoming conference on Inference from Non Probability Samples, 16-17 Mar in Paris: Looking for rigor in all the wrong places What do the following ideas and practices have in common: unbiased estimation, statistical significance, insistence on random sampling, and avoidance of prior information? All have been embraced as ways of enforcing […] The post Looking for rigor in all the wrong places appeared first on Statistical…

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“Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically.”

January 19, 2017
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“Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically.”

Last year there was much discussion here and elsewhere about a paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton, who noticed that death rates for non-Hispanic white Americans aged 45-54 had been roughly flat since 1999, even while the death rates for this age category had been declining steadily in other countries and among nonwhite Americans. […] The post “Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence…

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