Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour

May 22, 2015
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John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour

The recent story about the retracted paper on political persuasion reminded me of the last time that a politically loaded survey was discredited because the researcher couldn’t come up with the data. I’m referring to John Lott, the “economist, political commentator, and gun rights advocate” (in the words of Wikipedia) who is perhaps more well […] The post John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour appeared…

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BREAKING . . . Princeton decides to un-hire Kim Jong-Un for tenure-track assistant professorship in aeronautical engineering

May 21, 2015
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BREAKING . . . Princeton decides to un-hire Kim Jong-Un for tenure-track assistant professorship in aeronautical engineering

Full story here. Here’s the official quote: As you’ve correctly noted, at this time the individual is not a Princeton University employee. We will review all available information and determine next steps. And here’s what Kim has to say: I’m gathering evidence and relevant information so I can provide a single comprehensive response. I will […] The post BREAKING . . . Princeton decides to un-hire Kim Jong-Un for tenure-track…

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“In my previous post on the topic, I expressed surprise at the published claim but no skepticism”

May 20, 2015
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“In my previous post on the topic, I expressed surprise at the published claim but no skepticism”

Don’t believe everything you read in the tabloids, that’s for sure. P.S. I googled to see what else was up with this story and found this article which reported that someone claimed that Don Green’s retraction (see above link for details) was the first for political science. I guess it depends on how you define […] The post “In my previous post on the topic, I expressed surprise at the…

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A causal-inference version of a statistics problem: If you fit a regression model with interactions, and the underlying process has an interaction, your coefficients won’t be directly interpretable

May 4, 2015
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A causal-inference version of a statistics problem:  If you fit a regression model with interactions, and the underlying process has an interaction, your coefficients won’t be directly interpretable

A colleague pointed me to a recent paper, “Does Regression Produce Representative Estimates of Causal Effects?” by Peter Aronow and Cyrus Samii, which begins: With an unrepresentative sample, the estimate of a causal effect may fail to characterize how effects operate in the population of interest. What is less well understood is that conventional estimation […] The post A causal-inference version of a statistics problem: If you fit a regression…

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Political Attitudes in Social Environments

April 23, 2015
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Jose Duarte, Jarret Crawford, Charlotta Stern, Jonathan Haidt, Lee Jussim, and Philip Tetlock wrote an article, “Political Diversity Will Improve Social Psychological Science,” in which the argued that the field of social psychology would benefit from the inclusion of more non-liberal voices (here I’m using “liberal” in the sense of current U.S. politics). Duarte et […] The post Political Attitudes in Social Environments appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Go to PredictWise for forecast probabilities of events in the news

April 19, 2015
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Go to PredictWise for forecast probabilities of events in the news

I like it. Clear, transparent, no mumbo jumbo about their secret sauce. But . . . what’s with the hyper-precision: C’mon. “27.4%”? Who are you kidding?? (See here for explication of this point.) The post Go to PredictWise ...

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Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality

April 17, 2015
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I sent my post about the political implication of behavioral economics, embodied cognition, etc., to Gerd Gigerenzer, who commented as follows: The “half-empty” versus “half-full” explanation of the differences between Kahneman and us misses the essential point: the difference is about the nature of the glass of rationality, not the level of the water. For […] The post Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Item-response and ideal point models

April 15, 2015
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To continue from today’s class, here’s what we’ll be discussing next time: – Estimating the direction and the magnitude of the discrimination parameters. – How to tell when your data don’t fit the model. – When does ideal-point modeling make a difference? Comparing ideal-point estimates to simple averages of survey responses. P.S. Unlike the previous […] The post Item-response and ideal point models appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Outside pissing in

April 7, 2015
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Outside pissing in

Coral Davenport writes in the New York Times: Mr. Tribe, 73, has been retained to represent Peabody Energy, the nation’s largest coal company, in its legal quest to block an Environmental Protection Agency regulation that would cut carbon dioxide emissions from the nation’s coal-fired power plants . . . Mr. Tribe likened the climate change […] The post Outside pissing in appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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This is why I’m a political scientist and not a psychologist

April 5, 2015
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I can understand how people can hold all sorts of wacked-out political views (after all, in the past, people have supported ideas as crazy as abolitionism, polygamy, monarchy, and the nationalization of the means of production), but certain things in psychology just continue to baffle me, even though I know they’re true. The most recent […] The post This is why I’m a political scientist and not a psychologist appeared…

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