Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

Beyond forking paths: using multilevel modeling to figure out what can be learned from this survey experiment

October 17, 2017
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Under the heading, “Incompetent leaders as a protection against elite betrayal,” Tyler Cowen linked to this paper, “Populism and the Return of the ‘Paranoid Style’: Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance against Elite Betrayal,” by Rafael Di Tella and Julio Rotemberg. From a statistical perspective, the article by Tella […] The post Beyond forking paths: using multilevel modeling to figure out what can be…

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I disagree with Tyler Cowen regarding a so-called lack of Bayesianism in religious belief

October 6, 2017
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Tyler Cowen writes: I am frustrated by the lack of Bayesianism in most of the religious belief I observe. I’ve never met a believer who asserted: “I’m really not sure here. But I think Lutheranism is true with p = .018, and the next strongest contender comes in only at .014, so call me Lutheran.” […] The post I disagree with Tyler Cowen regarding a so-called lack of Bayesianism in…

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The “fish MRI” of international relations studies.

October 1, 2017
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Kevin Lewis pointed me to this paper by Stephen Chaudoin, Jude Hays and Raymond Hicks, “Do We Really Know the WTO Cures Cancer?”, which begins: This article uses a replication experiment of ninety-four specifications from sixteen different studies to show the severity of the problem of selection on unobservables. Using a variety of approaches, it […] The post The “fish MRI” of international relations studies. appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Apply for the Earth Institute Postdoc at Columbia and work with us!

September 30, 2017
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The Earth Institute at Columbia brings in several postdocs each year—it’s a two-year gig—and some of them have been statisticians (recently, Kenny Shirley, Leontine Alkema, Shira Mitchell, and Milad Kharratzadeh). We’re particularly interested in statisticians who have research interests in development and public health. It’s fine—not just fine, but ideal—if you are interested in statistical […] The post Apply for the Earth Institute Postdoc at Columbia and work with us!…

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What happened in the recent German election?

September 25, 2017
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Divya Schäfer writes: I am not a statistician, but a historian by training. However, I have a lay interest in election analyses, among other topics covered in your blog. I live in Germany. Yesterday, the federal elections were concluded, as you may have heard. I was wondering if you could share your views on it […] The post What happened in the recent German election? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Weisburd’s paradox in criminology: it can be explained using type M errors

September 25, 2017
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This one (with Torbjørn Skardhamar, and Mikko Aaltonen) goes out to all the criminologists out there. . . . Here’s the story: Simple calculations seem to show that larger studies should have higher statistical power, but empirical meta-analyses of published work in criminology have found zero or weak correlations between sample size and estimated statistical […] The post Weisburd’s paradox in criminology: it can be explained using type M errors…

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“What we know and don’t know about the 2016 election—and beyond” (event at Columbia poli sci dept next Monday midday)

September 21, 2017
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On Monday 25 Sep, 12:10-1:45pm, in the Playroom (707 International Affairs Bldg): “What we know and don’t know about the 2016 election—and beyond” (discussion led by Bob Shapiro, Bob Erikson, me, and other Columbia political sci...

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Maybe this paper is a parody, maybe it’s a semibluff

September 18, 2017
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Peter DeScioli writes: I was wondering if you saw this paper about people reading Harry Potter and then disliking Trump, attached. It seems to fit the shark attack genre. In this case, the issue seems to be judging causation from multiple regression with observational data, assuming that control variables are enough to narrow down to […] The post Maybe this paper is a parody, maybe it’s a semibluff appeared first…

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Where does the discussion go?

September 17, 2017
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Jorge Cimentada writes: In this article, Yascha Mounk is saying that political scientists have failed to predict unexpected political changes such as the Trump nomination and the sudden growth of populism in Europe, because, he argues, of the way we’re testing hypotheses. By that he means the quantitative aspect behind science discovery. He goes on […] The post Where does the discussion go? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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New Zealand election polling

September 15, 2017
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New Zealand election polling

Llewelyn Richards-Ward writes: Here is a forecaster apparently using a simulated (?Bayesian) approach and smoothing over a bunch of poll results in an attempt to guess the end result. I looked but couldn’t find his methodology but he is at University of Auckland, if you want to track him down… As a brief background, we […] The post New Zealand election polling appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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