Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

What’s the point of the margin of error?

January 23, 2015
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So . . . the scheduled debate on using margin of error with non-probability panels never happened. We got it started but there was some problem with the webinar software and nobody put the participants could hear anything. The 5 minutes of conversation we did have was pretty good, though. I was impressed. The webinar […] The post What’s the point of the margin of error? appeared first on Statistical…

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Debate on using margin of error with non-probability panels

January 22, 2015
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Debate on using margin of error with non-probability panels

Tomorrow (Thurs 22 Jan) at 2pm, I’m participating (along with Jane Tang, John Bremer, Nancy Brigham, and Steve Mossup) on an online discussion, moderated by Annie Pettit, on the above topic. Here’s the description: Most marketing researchers know that using Margin of Error with convenience samples, non-probability samples, and online research panels is inappropriate. However, […] The post Debate on using margin of error with non-probability panels appeared first on…

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Planning my class for this semester: Thinking aloud about how to move toward active learning?

January 9, 2015
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I’m teaching two classes this semester: - Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys (in the political science department, but the course has lots of statistics content); - Statistical Communication and Graphics (in the statistics department, but last time I taught it, many of the students were from other fields). I’ve taught both classes before. I […] The post Planning my class for this semester: Thinking aloud about how to move…

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A New Year puzzle from Macartan Humphreys

January 1, 2015
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A New Year puzzle from Macartan Humphreys

Macartan writes: There is a lot of worry about publication and analysis bias in social science research. It seems results are much more likely to be published if they are statistically significant than if not which can lead to very misleading inferences. There is some hope that this problem can be partly addressed through analytic […] The post A New Year puzzle from Macartan Humphreys appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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The anti-Woodstein

December 27, 2014
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I received the following email: Dear professor Andrew Gelman, My name is **, a resident correspondent of **. I am writing to request for an interview via email. We met once at New York Foreign Press Center one week ago. As you may know, President Obama will travel to China, Burma and Australia from November […] The post The anti-Woodstein appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Common sense and statistics

December 25, 2014
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John Cook writes: Some physicists say that you should always have an order-of-magnitude idea of what a result will be before you calculate it. This implies a belief that such estimates are usually possible, and that they provide a sanity check for calculations. And that’s true in physics, at least in mechanics. In probability, however, […] The post Common sense and statistics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Using statistics to make the world a better place?

December 23, 2014
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Using statistics to make the world a better place?

In a recent discussion involving our frustration with crap research, Daniel Lakeland wrote: I [Lakeland] really do worry about a world in which social and institutional and similar effects keep us plugging away at a certain kind of cargo-cult science that produces lots of publishable papers and makes it easier to get funding for projects […] The post Using statistics to make the world a better place? appeared first on…

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Research benefits of feminism

December 22, 2014
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Research benefits of feminism

Unlike that famous bank teller, I’m not “active in the feminist movement,” but I’ve always considered myself a feminist, ever since I heard the term (I don’t know when that was, maybe when I was 10 or so?). It’s no big deal, it probably just comes from having 2 big sisters and growing up during […] The post Research benefits of feminism appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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The Use of Sampling Weights in Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Small Area Estimation

December 19, 2014
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All this discussion of plagiarism is leaving a bad taste in my mouth (or, I guess I should say, a bad feeling in my fingers, given that I’m expressing all this on the keyboard) so I wanted to close off the workweek with something more interesting. I happened to come across the above-titled paper by […] The post The Use of Sampling Weights in Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Small Area…

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Message to Booleans: It’s an additive world, we just live in it

December 18, 2014
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Boolean models (“it’s either A or (B and C)”) seem to be the natural way that we think, but additive models (“10 points if you have A, 3 points if you have B, 2 points if you have C”) seem to describe reality better—at least, the aspects of reality that I study in my research. […] The post Message to Booleans: It’s an additive world, we just live in it…

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