Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

Should he major in political science and minor in statistics or the other way around?

May 29, 2016
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Andrew Wheeler writes: I will be a freshman at the University of Florida this upcoming fall and I am interested in becoming a political pollster. My original question was whether I should major in political science and minor in statistics or the other way around, but any other general advice would be appreciated. My reply: […] The post Should he major in political science and minor in statistics or the…

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When doing causal inference, define your treatment decision and then consider the consequences that flow from it

May 26, 2016
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Danielle Fumia writes: I am a research at the Washington State Institute for Public Policy, and I work on research estimating the effect of college attendance on earnings. Many studies that examine the effect of attending college on earnings control for college degree receipt and work experience. These models seem to violate the practice you […] The post When doing causal inference, define your treatment decision and then consider the…

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Splitsville for Thiel and Kasparov?

May 23, 2016
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The tech zillionaire and the chess champion were always a bit of an odd couple, and I’ve felt for awhile that it was just as well that they never finished that book they were talking about. But given that each of them has taken a second career in political activism, I can’t imagine that they’re […] The post Splitsville for Thiel and Kasparov? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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“Stop the Polling Insanity”

May 21, 2016
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“Stop the Polling Insanity”

Norman Ornstein and Alan Abramowitz warn against over-interpreting poll fluctuations: In this highly charged election, it’s no surprise that the news media see every poll like an addict sees a new fix. That is especially true of polls that show large and unexpected changes. Those polls get intense coverage and analysis, adding to their presumed […] The post “Stop the Polling Insanity” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Nick and Nate and Mark on Leicester and Trump

May 20, 2016
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Just following up on our post the other day on retrospective evaluations of probabilistic predictions: For more on Leicester City, see Nick Goff on Why did bookmakers lose on Leicester? and What price SHOULD Leicester have been? (forwarded to me by commenter Iggy). For more on Trump, see Nate Silver on How I Acted Like […] The post Nick and Nate and Mark on Leicester and Trump appeared first on…

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Leicester City and Donald Trump: How to think about predictions and longshot victories?

May 13, 2016
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Leicester City and Donald Trump:  How to think about predictions and longshot victories?

Leicester City was a 5000-to-1 shot to win the championship—and they did it. Donald Trump wasn’t supposed to win the Republican nomination—last summer Nate gave him a 2% chance—and it looks like he will win. For that matter, Nate only gave Bernie Sanders a 7% chance, and he came pretty close. Soccer There’s been a […] The post Leicester City and Donald Trump: How to think about predictions and longshot…

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MAPKIA 2: Josh and Drew shred the CCP/APPC “Political Polarization Literacy” test!

May 11, 2016
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MAPKIA 2:  Josh and Drew shred the CCP/APPC “Political Polarization Literacy” test!

Just like the original Jaws 2, this story features neither Richard Dreyfus nor Steven Spielberg. It all started when Dan Kahan sent me the following puzzle: Match the resonses of large nationally representative sample to supporting these policy items. I let this languish in my inbox for awhile until Kahan taunted me by letting me […] The post MAPKIA 2: Josh and Drew shred the CCP/APPC “Political Polarization Literacy” test!…

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The Access to Justice Lab at Harvard Law School: Job Openings!

May 10, 2016
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Jim Greiner writes: The Access to Justice Lab is a startup effort, initially supported by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation with sufficient funds for three years, headed by Jim Greiner at Harvard Law School. The Lab will produce randomized control trials (“RCTs”) directly involving courts and lawyers, particularly in the areas of access to […] The post The Access to Justice Lab at Harvard Law School: Job Openings! appeared…

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Math on a plane!

May 8, 2016
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Math on a plane!

Paul Alper pointed me to this news article about an economist who got BUSTED for doing algebra on the plane. This dude was profiled by the lady sitting next to him who got suspicious of his incomprehensible formulas. I feel that way about a lot of econ research too, so I can see where she […] The post Math on a plane! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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A short answer to a short question

April 17, 2016
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Emir Efendic writes: What is your opinion and can you think of any critiques of the multiple mediation models by Preacher and Hayes (e.g. Preacher & Hayes, 2008)? What would be your method of choice if you were testing multiple possible mediators of an effect, but also if said mediators are connected in a model […] The post A short answer to a short question appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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