Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

The Pandora Principle in statistics — and its malign converse, the ostrich

August 16, 2017
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The Pandora Principle is that once you’ve considered a possible interaction or bias or confounder, you can’t un-think it. The malign converse is when people realize this and then design their studies to avoid putting themselves in a position where they have to consider some potentially important factor. For example, suppose you’re considering some policy […] The post The Pandora Principle in statistics — and its malign converse, the ostrich…

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“Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election”

August 15, 2017
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Gur Huberman asks what I think about this paper, “Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election,” by Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow. I haven’t looked at in detail my quick thought is that they’re a bit too “mechanistic” as the effect of fake news is not just the belief in each individual story […] The post “Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election” appeared first on…

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The Supreme Court can’t do statistics. And, what’s worse, they don’t know what they don’t know.

August 9, 2017
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Kevin Lewis points us to this article by Ryan Enos, Anthony Fowler, and Christopher Havasy, who write: This article examines the negative effect fallacy, a flawed statistical argument first utilized by the Warren Court in Elkins v. United States. The Court argued that empirical evidence could not determine whether the exclusionary rule prevents future illegal […] The post The Supreme Court can’t do statistics. And, what’s worse, they don’t know…

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Letter to the Editor of Perspectives on Psychological Science

July 31, 2017
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[relevant cat picture] tl;dr: Himmicane in a teacup. Back in the day, the New Yorker magazine did not have a Letters to the Editors column, and so the great Spy magazine (the Gawker of its time) ran its own feature, Letters to the Editor of the New Yorker, where they posted the letters you otherwise […] The post Letter to the Editor of Perspectives on Psychological Science appeared first on…

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Delegate at Large

July 29, 2017
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Asher Meir points to this delightful garden of forking paths, which begins: • Politicians on the right look more beautiful in Europe, the U.S. and Australia. • As beautiful people earn more, they are more likely to oppose redistribution. • Voters use beauty as a cue for conservatism in low-information elections. • Politicians on the […] The post Delegate at Large appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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How does a Nobel-prize-winning economist become a victim of bog-standard selection bias?

July 20, 2017
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Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes in with a story: Linking to a new paper by Jorge Luis García, James J. Heckman, and Anna L. Ziff, an economist Sue Dynarski makes this “joke” on facebook—or maybe it’s not a joke: How does one adjust standard errors to account for the fact that N of […] The post How does a Nobel-prize-winning economist become a victim of bog-standard selection bias?…

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“The ‘Will & Grace’ Conjecture That Won’t Die” and other stories from the blogroll

July 18, 2017
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From sociologist Jay Livingston: The “Will & Grace” Conjecture That Won’t Die From sociologist David Weakliem: Why does Trump try to implement the unpopular ideas he’s proposed, and not the popular ideas? History professor who wrote award-winning book about 1970-era crime, is misinformed about the history of 1970s-era crime “West Virginia, which was a lock […] The post “The ‘Will & Grace’ Conjecture That Won’t Die” and other stories from…

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Slaying Song

July 14, 2017
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I came across this article by Joseph Bernstein, “Why Is A Top Harvard Law Professor Sharing Anti-Trump Conspiracy Theories?”: On April 22, Tribe shared a story from a website called the Palmer Report — a site that has been criticized for spreading hyperbole and false claims — entitled “Report: Trump gave $10 million in Russian […] The post Slaying Song appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Night Hawk

July 9, 2017
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Sam Harper writes: Not sure whether you saw the NYT story a couple of days ago about the declining prospects for democracy in rich countries (based on a recently published paper by Roberto Foa (University of Melbourne) and Yascha Mounk (Harvard). This graph, showing differences in the fraction of individuals reporting that it is “essential” […] The post Night Hawk appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Night Hawk

July 9, 2017
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Sam Harper writes: Not sure whether you saw the NYT story a couple of days ago about the declining prospects for democracy in rich countries (based on a recently published paper by Roberto Foa (University of Melbourne) and Yascha Mounk (Harvard). This graph, showing differences in the fraction of individuals reporting that it is “essential” […] The post Night Hawk appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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