Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

Oooh, it burns me up

August 28, 2016
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Oooh, it burns me up

If any of you are members of the Marketing Research Association, could you please contact them and ask them to change their position on this issue: I have a feeling they won’t mind if you call them at home. With an autodialer. “Pollsters now must hand-dial cellphones, at great expense,” indeed. It’s that expensive to […] The post Oooh, it burns me up appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

August 24, 2016
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Hey pollsters!  Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

Alan Abramowitz writes: In five days, Clinton’s lead increased from 5 points to 12 points. And Democratic party ID margin increased from 3 points to 10 points. No, I don’t think millions of voters switched to the Democratic party. I think Democrats are were just more likely to respond in that second poll. And, remember, […] The post Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to…

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Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance of careful measurement in randomized experiments

August 24, 2016
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At Bank Underground: When studying the effects of interventions on individual behavior, the experimental research template is typically: Gather a bunch of people who are willing to participate in an experiment, randomly divide them into two groups, assign one treatment to group A and the other to group B, then measure the outcomes. If you […] The post Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance…

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Michael Porter as new pincushion

August 20, 2016
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Some great comments on this post about Ted talk visionary Michael Porter. Most rewarding was this from Howard Edwards: New Zealand seems to score well on his index so perhaps I shouldn’t complain, but Michael Porter was well known in this part of the world 25 years ago when our government commissioned him to write […] The post Michael Porter as new pincushion appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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What’s gonna happen in November?

August 17, 2016
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Nadia Hassan writes: 2016 may be strange with Trump. Do you have any thoughts on how people might go about modeling a strange election? When I asked you about predictability and updating election forecasts, you stated that models that rely on polls at different points should be designed to allow for surprises. You have touted […] The post What’s gonna happen in November? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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How schools that obsess about standardized tests ruin them as measures of success

August 16, 2016
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How schools that obsess about standardized tests ruin them as measures of success

Mark Palko and I wrote this article comparing the Success Academy chain of charter schools to Soviet-era factories: According to the tests that New York uses to evaluate schools, Success Academies ranks at the top of the state — the top 0.3 percent in math and the top 1.5 percent in English, according to the […] The post How schools that obsess about standardized tests ruin them as measures of…

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The history of characterizing groups of people by their averages

August 15, 2016
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Andrea Panizza writes: I stumbled across this article on the End of Average. I didn’t know about Todd Rose, thus I had a look at his Wikipedia entry: Rose is a leading figure in the science of individual, an interdisciplinary field that draws upon new scientific and mathematical findings that demonstrate that it is not […] The post The history of characterizing groups of people by their averages appeared first…

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Modeling correlation of issue attitudes and partisanship within states

August 14, 2016
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John Kuk writes: I have taught myself multilevel modeling using your book and read your work with Delia Baldassarri about partisanship and issue alignment. I have a question about related to these two works. I want to find the level of correlation between partisanship and issues at the state level. Your work with Professor Baldassarri […] The post Modeling correlation of issue attitudes and partisanship within states appeared first on…

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George Orwell on the Olympics

August 11, 2016
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George Orwell on the Olympics

From 1945: If you wanted to add to the vast fund of ill-will existing in the world at this moment, you could hardly do it better than by a series of football matches between Jews and Arabs, Germans and Czechs, Indians and British, Russians and Poles, and Italians and Jugoslavs, each match to be watched […] The post George Orwell on the Olympics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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I know I said I wouldn’t blog for awhile, but this one was just too good to resist

August 9, 2016
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Scott Adams endorsing the power pose: Have you heard of the “victory pose.” It’s a way to change your body chemistry almost instantly by putting your hands above your head like you won something. That’s a striking example of how easy it is to manipulate your mood and thoughts by changing your body’s condition. So […] The post I know I said I wouldn’t blog for awhile, but this one…

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