Posts Tagged ‘ Political Science ’

Probability and Statistics in the Study of Voting and Public Opinion (my talk at the Columbia Applied Probability and Risk seminar, 30 Mar at 1pm)

March 27, 2017
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Probability and Statistics in the Study of Voting and Public Opinion Elections have both uncertainty and variation and hence represent a natural application of probability theory. In addition, opinion polling is a classic statistics problem and is featured in just about every course on the topic. But many common intuitions about probability, statistics, and voting […] The post Probability and Statistics in the Study of Voting and Public Opinion (my…

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Hey, we’re hiring a postdoc! To work on survey weighting! And imputation!

March 14, 2017
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Here’s the ad: The Center on Poverty and Social Policy at the Columbia University School of Social Work and the Columbia Population Research Center are seeking a postdoctoral scholar with a PhD in economics, statistics, public policy, demography, social work, sociology, or a related discipline, to lead the development of survey weights and missing data imputations for the New York City […] The post Hey, we’re hiring a postdoc! To work on survey weighting! And imputation!…

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Never say die

March 12, 2017
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Adam Levine, Jake Bowers, and Don Green write that they are launching a new website to facilitate research collaborations with NGOs and government agencies: New online matchmaking platform for research collaborations Today we’re announcing an exciting new opportunity for researchers interested in partnering with people from government and/or the nonprofit sector. Research4impact is a new […] The post Never say die appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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2 questions about HUD eligibility rules for federal housing programs

March 10, 2017
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Daniel McCracken writes: At work, I came across a potentially serious flaw in how HUD uses statistics to determine eligibility for federal housing programs (and the amount of subsidy each household receives). It seemed like something you might be interested in or blog about, so I figured I’d pass it along. For background, here’s the […] The post 2 questions about HUD eligibility rules for federal housing programs appeared first…

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No Way Out

March 2, 2017
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No Way Out

Did you ever see that movie from the 1980s where Kevin Costner plays a Russian spy who has the job of investigating himself? The tension keeps building: he can’t give the job to anyone else, but the evidence keeps piling up pointing to himself. At some point, something’s gotta give. From a review at the […] The post No Way Out appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Did Trump win because his name came first in key states? Maybe, but I’m doubtful.

February 27, 2017
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The above headline (without the “Maybe, but I’m doubtful”) is from a BBC News article, which continues: One of the world’s leading political scientists believes Donald Trump most likely won the US presidential election for a very simple reason, writes Hannah Sander – his name came first on the ballot in some critical swing states. […] The post Did Trump win because his name came first in key states? Maybe,…

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Should the Problems with Polls Make Us Worry about the Quality of Health Surveys? (my talk at CDC tomorrow)

February 20, 2017
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My talk this Thursday at CDC, Tuesday, February 21, 2017, 12:00 noon, 2400 Century Center, Room 1015C: Should the Problems with Polls Make Us Worry about the Quality of Health Surveys? Response rates in public opinion polls have been steadily declining for more than half a century and are currently heading toward the 0% mark. […] The post Should the Problems with Polls Make Us Worry about the Quality of…

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How important is gerrymandering? and How to most effectively use one’s political energy?

February 15, 2017
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Andy Stein writes: I think a lot of people (me included) would be interested to read an updated blog post from you on gerrymandering, even if your conclusions haven’t changed at all from your 2009 blog post [see also here]. Lots of people are talking about it now and Obama seems like he’ll be working […] The post How important is gerrymandering? and How to most effectively use one’s political…

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When do protests affect policy?

February 1, 2017
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When do protests affect policy?

Gur Huberman writes that he’s been wondering for many years about this question: One function of protests is to vent out the protesters’ emotions. When do protests affect policy? In dictatorships there are clear examples of protests affecting reality, e.g., in Eastern Europe in 1989. It’s harder to find such clear examples in democracies. And […] The post When do protests affect policy? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Age period cohort brouhaha

January 29, 2017
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Age period cohort brouhaha

Hi everybody! In August, I announced a break from blogging. And this is my first new post since then. (not counting various interpolated topical items on polling, elections, laughable surveys comparing North Carolina to North Korea, junk science on pizza prices, etc) I’m still trying to figure out how to do this; I have a […] The post Age period cohort brouhaha appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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