(This article was originally published at Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, and syndicated at StatsBlogs.)
A journalist sent me a bunch of questions regarding problems with polls. Here was my reply:
In answer to your question, no, the polls in Brexit did not fail. They were pretty good. See here and here.
The polls also successfully estimated Donald Trump’s success in the Republican primary election.
I think that poll responses are generally sincere. Polls are not perfect because they miss many people, hence pollsters need to make adjustments; see for example here and here.
I hope this helps.
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