What happened when I was forced to wait 30 minutes for the subway: pondering how easy it is for data analysts to get fooled by bad data

What happened when I was forced to wait 30 minutes for the subway: pondering how easy it is for data analysts to get fooled by bad data

In what I hope is the first occurrence of a new part of ISBA conferences, Booking.com is launching a data challenge at ISBA 2016 next week. The prize being a trip to take part in their monthly hackathon. In Amsterdam. It would be terrific if our Bayesian conferences, including BayesComp, could gather enough data and […]

Before leaving Helsinki, we arXived [from the Air France lounge!] the paper Jean-Michel presented on Monday at ABCruise in Helsinki. This paper summarises the experiments Louis conducted over the past months to assess the great performances of a random forest regression approach to ABC parameter inference. Thus validating in this experimental sense the use of […]

Travelling through Seville, I arrived in Càdiz on Sunday night, along with a massive depression [weather-speaking!]. Walking through the city from the station was nonetheless pleasant as this is an town full of small streets and nice houses. If with less churches than Seville! Richard Samworth gave the first plenary talk of AISTATS 2016 with […]

A quite simple Le Monde mathematical puzzle again with Alice and Bob: In a multiple choice questionnaire with 50 questions, Alice gets a score s such that Bob can guess how many correct (+5 points), incorrect (-1 point) and missing (0 point) Alice got when adding that Alice could not have gotten s-2 or s+2. […]

Hyungsuk Tak, Xiao-Li Meng and David van Dyk just arXived a paper on a multiple choice proposal in Metropolis-Hastings algorithms towards dealing with multimodal targets. Called “A repulsive-attractive Metropolis algorithm for multimodality” [although I wonder why XXL did not jump at the opportunity to use the “love-hate” denomination!]. The proposal distribution includes a [forced] downward […]

At MCMskv, Alexander Ly (from Amsterdam) pointed out to me some R programming mistakes I made in the introduction to Metropolis-Hastings algorithms I wrote a few months ago for the Wiley on-line encyclopedia! While the outcome (Monte Carlo posterior) of the corrected version is moderately changed this is nonetheless embarrassing! The example (if not the […]

After the MCqMC 2014 conference in Leuven I enjoyed very much, the MCqMC 2016 instalment takes place in Stanford this (late) summer. I cannot alas attend it, as I will be in Australia all summer winter, but the program looks terrific! As Art’s tutorial so brilliantly showed at MCMskv last week, the connections between the […]