There are many ways so predict the future. All of them have a fair degree of uncertainty. Nate Silver at FiveThityEight uses a measure of ethnicity and political leanings to predict how well Sanders will do in different states. This seems like a sound method to me though it is not the only way to make predictions.For the last month I have been playing with campaign contributions data and have…
The Area Under the Receiver Operator Curve is a commonly used metric of model performance in machine learning and many other binary classification/prediction problems. The idea is to generate a threshold independent measure of how well a model is able to distinguish between two possible outcomes. Threshold independent here just means that for any model […]
This is update 4 to my original post about predicting the NBA playoffs with R. With the Thunder beating the Spurs and the Heat losing to the Celtics, the algorithm went 1-1 on predictions, making it 5-3 so far. Making some improvements I have been pos...
This is update 4 to my original post about predicting the NBA playoffs with R. With the Thunder beating the Spurs and the Heat losing to the Celtics, the algorithm went 1-1 on predictions, making it 5-3 so far. Making Continue reading →
Game ResultsI recently made a post about developing an algorithm to predict the NBA playoffs, and I concluded with 2 predictions. Although Miami beat the Celtics to make my algorithm 1-0 in terms of predictions, it fell to 1-1 when the Thunder beat th...
Game Results I recently made a post about developing an algorithm to predict the NBA playoffs, and I concluded with 2 predictions. Although Miami beat the Celtics to make my algorithm 1-0 in terms of predictions, it fell to 1-1 Continue reading →
Game ResultsI recently made a post about developing an algorithm to predict the NBA playoffs, and I concluded with 2 predictions. Although Miami beat the Celtics to make my algorithm 1-0 in terms of predictions, it fell to 1-1 when the Thunder beat the Spurs. So, we are now at .500 . Considering that the algorithm was about 61.5% accurate over the whole season, this is to be expected.I made…
This is the initial post about the algorithm. See updates 1, 2, and 3 for more. The algorithm is currently 4-2 in the playoffs!OverviewI was struck by Martin O'Leary's recent post on predicting the Eurovision finals, which led me to decide that I wou...
This is the initial post about the algorithm. See updates 1, 2, and 3 for more. The algorithm is currently 4-2 in the playoffs!OverviewI was struck by Martin O'Leary's recent post on predicting the Eurovision finals, which led me to decide that I would try to predict NBA games using mathematical models. As the finals are ongoing, this is a quite timely decision! You can read through everything or scroll…
