So: for once I woke up this morning feeling slightly quite tired for the late night, but also rather upbeat after an election. The final results of the general election are out and have produced quite some shock. Throughout yesterday, it look...
So: for once I woke up this morning feeling slightly quite tired for the late night, but also rather upbeat after an election. The final results of the general election are out and have produced quite some shock. Throughout yesterday, it look...
Today I've taken a break from the general election modelling $-$ well, not really... Of course I've checked whether there were new polls available and have updated the model! But: nothing much changes, so for today, I'll actually concentrate on so...
When it first was shown, I really liked "The Inbetweeners" $-$ it was at times quite rude and cheap, but it did make me laugh, despite the fact that, as it often happens, all the main characters did look a bit older than the age they were trying to por...
I've received a couple of emails or comments on one of the General Election posts to ask me to share the code I've used. In general, I think this is a bit dirty and lots could be done in a more efficient way $-$ effectively, I'm doing this out of ...
Kaleb has left a comment on a previous post, asking what constituencies my model predicted to change hands, with respect to the 2015 election. This is not too difficult to do, given the wealth of results and quantities that can be computed, once the po...
After the tragic events in Manchester and the suspension in the campaigns, things have started again and a couple new polls have been released. Some of the media have also picked up the trend I was observing from my model and so I have re-updated the r...
This is going to be a very short post. I've been again following the latest polls and have updated my election forecast model $-$ nothing has changed in the general structure, only new data coming as the campaigns evolve.The dynamic forecast (which con...
I've continued to fill in the data from the polls and re-run the model for the next UK general election. I think the dynamic element is interesting in principle, mainly because of how the data from the most recent polls could be weighed differently tha...
Slowly but surely, I've managed to think a bit more about the elections model. Here, I've described how I included some prior information in my model to try and "discount" the evidence provided by the polls, to obtain estimates that may be more reasona...
I found a little more time to think about the election model and fiddle with the set up, as well as use some more recent polls $-$ I have now managed to get 9 polls detailing voting intention for the 7 main parties competing in England, Scotland a...
