Blog Archives

Pat pat

July 25, 2014
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Pat pat

This is probably akin to an exercise in self-pleasing, but I'll indulge in this anyway to celebrate the fact that our paper on the Bias in the Eurovision song contest voting (the last in a relatively long series of posts on this is here) has now over 4...

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The Oracle (8) – let’s go all the way!

July 7, 2014
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This is (may be) the final post in the series dedicated to the prediction of the World Cup results $-$ I'll try and actually write another to wrap things up and summarise a few comments, but this will probably be a bit later on. Finally, we've decided ...

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The Oracle (7)

July 3, 2014
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The Oracle (7)

We're now down to 8 teams left in the World Cup. Interestingly, despite a pretty disappointing display by some of the (more or less rightly so) highly rated teams, such as Spain, Italy, Portugal or England, European sides are exactly 50% of the lot. Gi...

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Short course: Bayesian methods in health economics

July 2, 2014
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Chris, Richard and I tested this last March in Canada (see also here) and things seem to have gone quite well. So we have decided to replicate the experiment (so that we can get a bigger sample size!) and do the short course this coming November (...

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Break!

June 28, 2014
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Break!

Just to break the mono-thematic nature of the recent posts, I thought I'd just linked to this article which has appeared in the Significance website.That's an interesting analysis conducted by researchers at the LSE, demystifying the myth that migrants...

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The Oracle (6)

June 27, 2014
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The Oracle (6)

Quick update, now that the group stage is finished. We needed a few tweaks to the simulation process (described in some more details here), which we spent some time debating and implementing.First off, the data on the last World Cups show that during t...

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The Oracle (5. Or: Calibration, calibration, calibration…)

June 23, 2014
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The Oracle (5. Or: Calibration, calibration, calibration…)

First off, a necessary disclaimer: I haven't been able to write this post before a few of the games of the final round of the group stage have been played, but I have not watched the games so far and have run the model to predict round 3 as if none of ...

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The Oracle (4)

June 19, 2014
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The Oracle (4)

As promised, some consideration of our model performance, so far. I've produced the graph below, which for each of the first 16 games (ie the games it took for all the 32 teams to be involved once) shows the predictive distribution of the results. The ...

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The Oracle (3)

June 18, 2014
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The Oracle (3)

Yesterday was the end of round 1 for the group stage $-$ this means that all 32 teams have played at least once (in fact, Brazil and Mexico have now played twice). So, it was time for us to update our model including a new measure of "current form" for...

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The Oracle (2)

June 13, 2014
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The Oracle (2)

The World Cup is now under way, after an arguably fairly lacklustre performance by the host against a tough (if possibly a bit naive) Croatian team, still resulting in a 3-1 win for Brazil. I'll try and comment on our predictions for the first few...

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