Blog Archives

Picky people

June 20, 2017
By
Picky people

Our book on Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis using BCEA is out (I think as of last week). This has been a long process (I've talked about this here, here and here). Today I've come back to the office and have open the package with my copies. T...

Read more »

Homecoming (of sort…)

June 19, 2017
By
Homecoming (of sort…)

I spent last week in Florence for our Summer School. Of course, it was home-coming for me and I really enjoyed being back to Florence $-$ although it was really hot. I would say I'm not used to that level of heat anymore, if it wasn't for the fact that...

Read more »

Surprise?

June 9, 2017
By

So: for once I woke up this morning feeling slightly quite tired for the late night, but also rather upbeat after an election. The final results of the general election are out and have produced quite some shock. Throughout yesterday, it look...

Read more »

Break

June 7, 2017
By
Break

Today I've taken a break from the general election modelling $-$ well, not really... Of course I've checked whether there were new polls available and have updated the model! But: nothing much changes, so for today, I'll actually concentrate on so...

Read more »

The Inbetweeners

June 6, 2017
By
The Inbetweeners

When it first was shown, I really liked "The Inbetweeners" $-$ it was at times quite rude and cheap, but it did make me laugh, despite the fact that, as it often happens, all the main characters did look a bit older than the age they were trying to por...

Read more »

The code (and other stuff…)

June 2, 2017
By
The code (and other stuff…)

I've received a couple of emails or comments on one of the General Election posts to ask me to share the code I've used. In general, I think this is a bit dirty and lots could be done in a more efficient way $-$ effectively, I'm doing this out of ...

Read more »

The swingers

May 30, 2017
By
The swingers

Kaleb has left a comment on a previous post, asking what constituencies my model predicted to change hands, with respect to the 2015 election. This is not too difficult to do, given the wealth of results and quantities that can be computed, once the po...

Read more »

(Too) slowly but surely?

May 26, 2017
By
(Too) slowly but surely?

After the tragic events in Manchester and the suspension in the campaigns, things have started again and a couple new polls have been released. Some of the media have also picked up the trend I was observing from my model and so I have re-updated the r...

Read more »

Quick update

May 22, 2017
By
Quick update

This is going to be a very short post. I've been again following the latest polls and have updated my election forecast model $-$ nothing has changed in the general structure, only new data coming as the campaigns evolve.The dynamic forecast (which con...

Read more »

Through time & space

May 15, 2017
By
Through time & space

I've continued to fill in the data from the polls and re-run the model for the next UK general election. I think the dynamic element is interesting in principle, mainly because of how the data from the most recent polls could be weighed differently tha...

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe