Blog Archives

Quick update

May 22, 2017
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Quick update

This is going to be a very short post. I've been again following the latest polls and have updated my election forecast model $-$ nothing has changed in the general structure, only new data coming as the campaigns evolve.The dynamic forecast (which con...

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Through time & space

May 15, 2017
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Through time & space

I've continued to fill in the data from the polls and re-run the model for the next UK general election. I think the dynamic element is interesting in principle, mainly because of how the data from the most recent polls could be weighed differently tha...

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Flash forward sampling

May 5, 2017
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Flash forward sampling

Slowly but surely, I've managed to think a bit more about the elections model. Here, I've described how I included some prior information in my model to try and "discount" the evidence provided by the polls, to obtain estimates that may be more reasona...

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Face value

April 28, 2017
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Face value

I found a little more time to think about the election model and fiddle with the set up, as well as use some more recent polls $-$ I have now managed to get 9 polls detailing voting intention for the 7 main parties competing in England, Scotland a...

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Snap

April 25, 2017
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Snap

In the grand tradition of all recent election times, I've decided to have a go and try and build a model that could predict the results of the upcoming snap general election in the UK. I'm sure there will be many more people having a go at this, from v...

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Post-doc

April 20, 2017
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Post-doc

If you fancy becoming like the crazy, purple minion, we have a Research Associated position at the UCL Institute for Global Health (with whom I've been heavily involved in the past year or so, while organising our new MSc Health Economics & De...

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Hope & Faith

April 18, 2017
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Hope & Faith

In a remarkable and unpredictable (may be?) turn of events, the UK Prime Minister has today sort-of-called a general election for this coming June $-$ sort-of, if you don't follow UK politics, because technically a law prevents the PM to call snap elec...

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Workshop on The Regression Discontinuity Design

April 18, 2017
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Workshop on The Regression Discontinuity Design

As part of our bid to get an MRC grant (which we managed to do), we promised that, if successful, we'd also have a dissemination workshop, at the end of the project. Well, the project on the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) has now finished f...

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The greedy baker with a full barrel and a drunken wife

March 31, 2017
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The greedy baker with a full barrel and a drunken wife

Earlier this week, I gave a talk at one of the UCL Priment seminars. The session was organised around two presentations aimed at discussing the definition and differences between "confidence" and "credible" intervals $-$ I think more generally, the poi...

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Coming soon!

February 21, 2017
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Coming soon!

We've just received a picture of the cover of the BCEA book, which is really, really close to being finally published!I did mention this in a few other posts (for example here and here) and it has been in fact a rather long process, so much so tha...

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