I came across this claim in the US press suggesting evidence for a positive relationship between a candidate's height and his vote support. That is, the taller the candidate, the better his/her chances for success in presidential elections. After a little search, I found this Wikipedia entry, and even some academic research on the issue, […]
It seems the summer is coming to end in London, so I shall take a final look at my ice cream data that I have been playing around with to predict sales statistics based on temperature for the last couple of weeks [1], [2], [3].Here I will use the new b...
Last week I presented visualisations of theoretical distributions that predict ice cream sales statistics based on linear and generalised linear models, which I introduced in an earlier post.Theoretical distributionsToday I will take a closer look at t...
Two weeks ago I discussed various linear and generalised linear models in R using ice cream sales statistics. The data showed not surprisingly that more ice cream was sold at higher temperatures.icecream
Linear models are the bread and butter of statistics, but there is a lot more to it than taking a ruler and drawing a line through a couple of points.Some time ago Rasmus Bååth published an insightful blog article about how such models could be descr...
Histogram: LM estimates of Intercepts Histogram: LM estimates of Gradient QQ Plot: LM estimates of Intercepts QQ Plot: LM estimates of Gradient Figure 1: Gradient appears to follow a normal distribution more than intercept . When do we use a parametric model, and when do we use a non-parametric one? In […]
The marginal likelihood or the model evidence is the probability of observing the data given a specific model. This is used in Bayesian model selection and comparison when computing Bayes factor between models, which is simply the ratio of the two respective marginal likelihoods. This can be used to select which covariates to include in […] The post Marginal Likelihood and Model Evidence in Bayesian Regression appeared first on Lindons…
This is the third post about Christofides' paper on Regression models based on log-incremental payments [1]. The first post covered the fundamentals of Christofides' reserving model in sections A - F, the second focused on a more realistic exam...
Following on from last week's post I will continue to go through the paper Regression models based on log-incremental payments by Stavros Christofides [1]. In the previous post I introduced the model from the first 15 pages up to section F. Today I...
A recent post on the PirateGrunt blog on claims reserving inspired me to look into the paper Regression models based on log-incremental payments by Stavros Christofides [1], published as part of the Claims Reserving Manual (Version 2) of the Institute ...
