Posts Tagged ‘ economics ’

Nice chart from the neck down

April 30, 2015
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Nice chart from the neck down

I was drawn to this Wall Street Journal chart because of the blue columns. The blue color solves a common problem in time-series plots when the time axis is incomplete. The first quarter of 2015 is dangling. The article is...

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Online predictions from ipredict

April 21, 2015
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Following up on our post on PredictWise, Richard Barker points to this fun site of market-based predictions. It’s subtitled, “Buy and sell stocks in future political and economic events.” It’s based in New Zealand so you can bet on wacky propositions such as, “David Carter to be next High Commissioner from New Zealand to the […] The post Online predictions from ipredict appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Go to PredictWise for forecast probabilities of events in the news

April 19, 2015
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Go to PredictWise for forecast probabilities of events in the news

I like it. Clear, transparent, no mumbo jumbo about their secret sauce. But . . . what’s with the hyper-precision: C’mon. “27.4%”? Who are you kidding?? (See here for explication of this point.) The post Go to PredictWise ...

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Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality

April 17, 2015
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I sent my post about the political implication of behavioral economics, embodied cognition, etc., to Gerd Gigerenzer, who commented as follows: The “half-empty” versus “half-full” explanation of the differences between Kahneman and us misses the essential point: the difference is about the nature of the glass of rationality, not the level of the water. For […] The post Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Another stylized fact bites the dust

April 11, 2015
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According to economist Henry Farber (link from Dan Goldstein): In a seminal paper, Camerer, Babcock, Loewenstein, and Thaler (1997) find that the wage elasticity of daily hours of work New York City (NYC) taxi drivers is negative and conclude that their labor supply behavior is consistent with target earning (having reference dependent preferences). I replicate […] The post Another stylized fact bites the dust appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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The end of the oil glut

April 7, 2015
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The end of the oil glut

[Update: the break-even price for shale oil is $76 a barrel. For details, Ctrl+F “Wood McKenzie” in this post.] In my last post, I talked about how America had depressed oil prices by increasing its supply. Recall this graph which shows that the supply glut is primarily caused by increased American supply (the top pink […]

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Why oil prices came down, and won’t anymore

April 6, 2015
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Why oil prices came down, and won’t anymore

This article was republished by the Significance, the official magazine of the American Statistical Association and Royal Statistical Society (UK). You have probably heard that the price of crude oil has tumbled from $115 per barrel (159 litres, an archaic but established unit of measurement) in June 2014 to $54 in March 2015. Why oil […]

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“Thinking about the possibility of spurious correlation isn’t a matter of liking—it should be pretty much automatic.”

April 4, 2015
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I agree with sociologist David Weakliem when he writes the above sentence. Here’s the full paragraph: Krugman says, “you can, if you like, try to argue that this relationship is spurious, maybe not causal.” Actually, I [Weakliem] liked his original figure, since I agree with Krugman on economic policy. But thinking about the possibility of […] The post “Thinking about the possibility of spurious correlation isn’t a matter of liking—it…

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Time-release pedagogy??

March 31, 2015
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Time-release pedagogy??

Mark Palko points to this report and writes: Putting aside my concerns with the “additional years of learning” metric (and I have a lot of them), I have the feeling that there’s something strange here or i’m missing something obvious. That jump from 3-year impact to 4-year seems excessive. The press release links to a […] The post Time-release pedagogy?? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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To map or not to map

March 31, 2015
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To map or not to map

The New York Times shows the following set of maps to illustrate State policies relating to illegal immigrants. (link to article) This is a great classroom exercise. The question is: to map or not to map. What are other possible...

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