Posts Tagged ‘ economics ’

Round things, square things

December 9, 2016
By
Round things, square things

The following chart traces the flow of funds into AI (artificial intelligence) startups. I found it on this webpage and it is attributed to Financial Times. Here, I apply the self-sufficiency test to show that the semicircles are playing no...

Read more »

“So such markets were, and perhaps are, subject to bias from deep pocketed people who may be expressing preference more than actual expectation”

December 8, 2016
By
“So such markets were, and perhaps are, subject to bias from deep pocketed people who may be expressing preference more than actual expectation”

Geoff Buchan writes in with another theory about how prediction markets can go wrong: I did want to mention one fascinating datum on Brexit: one UK bookmaker said they received about twice as many bets on leave as on remain, but the average bet on remain was *five* times what was bet on leave, meaning […] The post “So such markets were, and perhaps are, subject to bias from deep…

Read more »

“Dear Major Textbook Publisher”: A Rant

December 7, 2016
By
“Dear Major Textbook Publisher”:  A Rant

Dear Major Academic Publisher, You just sent me, unsolicited, an introductory statistics textbook that is 800 pages and weighs about 5 pounds. It’s the 3rd edition of a book by someone I’ve never heard of. That’s fine—a newcomer can write a good book. The real problem is that the book is crap. It’s just the […] The post “Dear Major Textbook Publisher”: A Rant appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

Using Stan in an agent-based model: Simulation suggests that a market could be useful for building public consensus on climate change

December 5, 2016
By
Using Stan in an agent-based model:  Simulation suggests that a market could be useful for building public consensus on climate change

Jonathan Gilligan writes: I’m writing to let you know about a preprint that uses Stan in what I think is a novel manner: Two graduate students and I developed an agent-based simulation of a prediction market for climate, in which traders buy and sell securities that are essentially bets on what the global average temperature […] The post Using Stan in an agent-based model: Simulation suggests that a market could…

Read more »

Frustration with published results that can’t be reproduced, and journals that don’t seem to care

December 4, 2016
By
Frustration with published results that can’t be reproduced, and journals that don’t seem to care

Thomas Heister writes: Your recent post about Per Pettersson-Lidbom frustrations in reproducing study results reminded me of our own recent experience that we had in replicating a paper in PLOSone. We found numerous substantial errors but eventually gave up as, frustratingly, the time and effort didn’t seem to change anything and the journal’s editors quite […] The post Frustration with published results that can’t be reproduced, and journals that don’t…

Read more »

Individual and aggregate patterns in the Equality of Opportunity research project

November 19, 2016
By

Dale Lehman writes: I’ve been looking at the work of the Equality of Opportunity Project and noticed that you had commented on some of their work. Since you are somewhat familiar with the work, and since they do not respond to my queries, I thought I’d ask you about something that is bothering me. I, […] The post Individual and aggregate patterns in the Equality of Opportunity research project appeared…

Read more »

Josh Miller hot hand talks in NYC and Pittsburgh this week

November 15, 2016
By
Josh Miller hot hand talks in NYC and Pittsburgh this week

Joshua Miller (the person who, with Adam Sanjurjo, discovered why the so-called “hot hand fallacy” is not really a fallacy) will be speaking on the topic this week. In New York, Thurs 17 Nov, 12:30pm, 19 W 4th St, room 517, Center for Experimental Social Science seminar. In Pittsburgh, Fri 18 Nov, 12pm, 4716 Posvsar […] The post Josh Miller hot hand talks in NYC and Pittsburgh this week appeared…

Read more »

How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 2

November 10, 2016
By
How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care?  Part 2

This is the second of a series of two posts. Yesterday we discussed the difficulties of learning from a small, noisy experiment, in the context of a longitudinal study conducted in Jamaica where researchers reported that an early-childhood intervention program caused a 42%, or 25%, gain in later earnings. I expressed skepticism. Today I want […] The post How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 2 appeared first…

Read more »

How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 2

November 10, 2016
By
How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care?  Part 2

This is the second of a series of two posts. Yesterday we discussed the difficulties of learning from a small, noisy experiment, in the context of a longitudinal study conducted in Jamaica where researchers reported that an early-childhood intervention program caused a 42%, or 25%, gain in later earnings. I expressed skepticism. Today I want […] The post How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 2 appeared first…

Read more »

How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 1

November 9, 2016
By

This is the first of a series of two posts. We’ve talked before about various empirically-based claims of the effectiveness of early childhood intervention. In a much-publicized 2013 paper based on a study of 130 four-year-old children in Jamaica, Paul Gertler et al. claimed that a particular program caused a 42% increase in the participants’ […] The post How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 1 appeared first…

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe