Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

On deck this week

May 2, 2016
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Mon: Are you pro or anti-biotics? Tues: “Null hypothesis” = “A specific random number generator” Wed: No guarantee Thurs: The Puzzle of Paul Meehl: An intellectual history of research criticism in psychology Fri: Redemption Sat: Doing dat...

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On deck this week

April 25, 2016
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Mon: I owe it all to my Neanderthal genes Tues: If Yogi Berra could see this one, he’d spin in his grave: Regression modeling using a convenience sample Wed: 64 Shades of Gray: The subtle effect of chessboard images on foreign policy polarization Thurs: Integrating graphs into your workflow Fri: Gary Venter’s age-period-cohort decomposition of […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Risk aversion is a two-way street

April 24, 2016
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Risk aversion is a two-way street

“Risk aversion” comes up a lot in microeconomics, but I think that it’s too broad a concept to do much for us. In many many cases, it seems to me that, when there is a decision option, either behavior X or behavior not-X can be thought as risk averse, depending on the framing. Thus, when […] The post Risk aversion is a two-way street appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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“Cancer Research Is Broken”

April 20, 2016
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Michael Oakes pointed me to this excellent news article by Daniel Engber, subtitled, “There’s a replication crisis in biomedicine—and no one even knows how deep it runs.” Engber suggests that the replication problem in biomedical research is worse than the much-publicized replication problem in psychology. One reason, which I didn’t see Engber discussing, is financial […] The post “Cancer Research Is Broken” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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On deck this week

April 18, 2016
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Mon: DG XXXVII: Lumosity fined $2 million for deceiving customers about its “brain training” programs Tues: “if you add a few more variables, you can do a better job at predictions” Wed: Stochastic natural-gradient EP Thurs: A new idea for a science core course based entirely on computer simulation Fri: Oooh, it burns me up […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research

April 16, 2016
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The other day I happened to come across this paper that I wrote with Don Rubin in 1995. I really like it—it’s so judicious and mature, I can’t believe I wrote it over 20 years ago! Let this be a lesson to all of you that it’s possible to get somewhere by reasoning from first […] The post Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Bayesian Umpires: The coolest sports-statistics idea since the hot hand!

April 13, 2016
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Bayesian Umpires:  The coolest sports-statistics idea since the hot hand!

Hiro Minato points us to this recent article by Guy Molyneux: Baseball fans have long known, or at least suspected, that umpires call balls and strikes differently as the count changes. At 0-2, it seems that almost any taken pitch that is not right down the middle will be called a ball, while at 3-0 […] The post Bayesian Umpires: The coolest sports-statistics idea since the hot hand! appeared first…

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On deck this week

April 11, 2016
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Mon: GIGO Tues: Why I’m skeptical of Fergus Simpson’s Big Alien Theory Wed: One more thing you don’t have to worry about Thurs: These Twin Names Match, But Aren’t “Matchy-Matchy” Fri: Put your own questions on the General Social Survey! Sat: Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research Sun: A short answer to a short […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Selection bias, or, some things are better off left unsaid

April 7, 2016
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I got two of these in the same day! 1. A colleague emails me that a colleague emailed him regarding a study on women in the workplace. The headline conclusion is: “Corporate America is not on a path to gender equality.” My colleague’s colleague writes: This coincides with my prior beliefs, but for exactly that […] The post Selection bias, or, some things are better off left unsaid appeared first…

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“A strong anvil need not fear the hammer”

April 4, 2016
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“A strong anvil need not fear the hammer”

Wagenmakers et al. write: A single experiment cannot overturn a large body of work. . . . An empirical debate is best organized around a series of preregistered replications, and perhaps the authors whose work we did not replicate will feel inspired to conduct their own preregistered studies. In our opinion, science is best served […] The post “A strong anvil need not fear the hammer” appeared first on Statistical…

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