Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

“The earth is flat (p > 0.05): Significance thresholds and the crisis of unreplicable research”

April 30, 2017
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“The earth is flat (p > 0.05): Significance thresholds and the crisis of unreplicable research”

Valentin Amrhein​, Fränzi Korner-Nievergelt, and Tobias Roth write: The widespread use of ‘statistical significance’ as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process. We review why degrading p-values into ‘significant’ and ‘nonsignificant’ contributes to making studies irreproducible, or to making them seem irreproducible. A major […] The post “The earth is flat (p > 0.05): Significance thresholds and the crisis…

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Blue Cross Blue Shield Health Index

April 29, 2017
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Chris Famighetti points us to this page which links to an interactive visualization. There are some problems with the mapping software—when I clicked through, it showed a little map of the western part of the U.S., accompanied by huge swathes of Canada and the Pacific Ocean—and I haven’t taken a look at the methodology. But […] The post Blue Cross Blue Shield Health Index appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Using prior knowledge in frequentist tests

April 26, 2017
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Christian Bartels send along this paper, which he described as an attempt to use informative priors for frequentist test statistics. I replied: I’ve not tried to follow the details but this reminds me of our paper on posterior predictive checks. People think of this as very Bayesian but my original idea when doing this research […] The post Using prior knowledge in frequentist tests appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Would you prefer three N=300 studies or one N=900 study?

April 23, 2017
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Stephen Martin started off with a question: I’ve been thinking about this thought experiment: — Imagine you’re given two papers. Both papers explore the same topic and use the same methodology. Both were preregistered. Paper A has a novel study (n1=300) with confirmed hypotheses, followed by two successful direct replications (n2=300, n3=300). Paper B has […] The post Would you prefer three N=300 studies or one N=900 study? appeared first…

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Reputational incentives and post-publication review: two (partial) solutions to the misinformation problem

April 18, 2017
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So. There are erroneous analyses published in scientific journals and in the news. Here I’m not talking not about outright propaganda, but about mistakes that happen to coincide with the preconceptions of their authors. We’ve seen lots of examples. Here are just a few: – Political scientist Larry Bartels is committed to a model of […] The post Reputational incentives and post-publication review: two (partial) solutions to the misinformation problem…

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Stacking, pseudo-BMA, and AIC type weights for combining Bayesian predictive distributions

April 11, 2017
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Stacking, pseudo-BMA, and AIC type weights for combining Bayesian predictive distributions

This post is by Aki. We have often been asked in the Stan user forum how to do model combination for Stan models. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) by computing marginal likelihoods is challenging in theory and even more challenging in practice using only the MCMC samples obtained from the full model posteriors. Some users have […] The post Stacking, pseudo-BMA, and AIC type weights for combining Bayesian predictive distributions appeared…

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Beyond subjective and objective in statistics: my talk with Christian Hennig tomorrow (Wed) 5pm in London

April 11, 2017
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Christian Hennig and I write: Decisions in statistical data analysis are often justified, criticized, or avoided using concepts of objectivity and subjectivity. We argue that the words “objective” and “subjective” in statistics discourse are used in a mostly unhelpful way, and we propose to replace each of them with broader collections of attributes, with objectivity […] The post Beyond subjective and objective in statistics: my talk with Christian Hennig tomorrow…

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Tech company wants to hire Stan programmers!

April 5, 2017
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Ittai Kan writes: I started life as an academic mathematician (chaos theory) but have long since moved into industry. I am currently Chief Scientist at Afiniti, a contact center routing technology company that connects agent and callers on the basis of various factors in order to globally optimize the contact center performance. We have 17 […] The post Tech company wants to hire Stan programmers! appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Gilovich doubles down on hot hand denial

April 2, 2017
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Gilovich doubles down on hot hand denial

A correspondent pointed me to this Freaknomics radio interview with Thomas Gilovich, one of the authors of that famous “hot hand” paper from 1985, “Misperception of Chance Processes in Basketball.” Here’s the key bit from the Freakonomics interview: DUBNER: Right. The “hot-hand notion” or maybe the “hot-hand fallacy.” GILOVICH: Well, everyone who’s ever played the […] The post Gilovich doubles down on hot hand denial appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Let’s accept the idea that treatment effects vary—not as something special but just as a matter of course

March 25, 2017
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Let’s accept the idea that treatment effects vary—not as something special but just as a matter of course

Tyler Cowen writes: Does knowing the price lower your enjoyment of goods and services? I [Cowen] don’t quite agree with this as stated, as the experience of enjoying a bargain can make it more pleasurable, or at least I have seen this for many people. Some in fact enjoy the bargain only, not the actual […] The post Let’s accept the idea that treatment effects vary—not as something special but…

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