Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

A day in the life

August 25, 2016
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I like to post approx one item per day on this blog, so when multiple things come up in the same day, I worry about the sustainability of all this. I suppose I could up the posting rate to 2 a day but I think that could be too much of a burden on the […] The post A day in the life appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

August 24, 2016
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Hey pollsters!  Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

Alan Abramowitz writes: In five days, Clinton’s lead increased from 5 points to 12 points. And Democratic party ID margin increased from 3 points to 10 points. No, I don’t think millions of voters switched to the Democratic party. I think Democrats are were just more likely to respond in that second poll. And, remember, […] The post Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to…

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Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance of careful measurement in randomized experiments

August 24, 2016
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At Bank Underground: When studying the effects of interventions on individual behavior, the experimental research template is typically: Gather a bunch of people who are willing to participate in an experiment, randomly divide them into two groups, assign one treatment to group A and the other to group B, then measure the outcomes. If you […] The post Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance…

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Bayesian inference completely solves the multiple comparisons problem

August 22, 2016
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Bayesian inference completely solves the multiple comparisons problem

I promised I wouldn’t do any new blogging until January but I’m here at this conference and someone asked me a question about the above slide from my talk. The point of the story in that slide is that flat priors consistently give bad inferences. Or, to put it another way, the routine use of […] The post Bayesian inference completely solves the multiple comparisons problem appeared first on Statistical…

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On deck this week

August 22, 2016
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Mon: One more thing you don’t have to worry about Tues: Evil collaboration between Medtronic and FDA Wed: His varying slopes don’t seem to follow a normal distribution Thurs: A day in the life Fri: Letters we never finished reading Sat: Better to just not see the sausage get made Sun: Oooh, it burns me […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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How schools that obsess about standardized tests ruin them as measures of success

August 16, 2016
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How schools that obsess about standardized tests ruin them as measures of success

Mark Palko and I wrote this article comparing the Success Academy chain of charter schools to Soviet-era factories: According to the tests that New York uses to evaluate schools, Success Academies ranks at the top of the state — the top 0.3 percent in math and the top 1.5 percent in English, according to the […] The post How schools that obsess about standardized tests ruin them as measures of…

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On deck this week

August 15, 2016
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Mon: The history of characterizing groups of people by their averages Tues: Calorie labeling reduces obesity Obesity increased more slowly in California, Seattle, Portland (Oregon), and NYC, compared to some other places in the west coast and northeast that didn’t have calorie labeling Wed: What’s gonna happen in November? Thurs: An ethnographic study of the […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Will youths who swill Red Bull become adult cocaine addicts?

August 12, 2016
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Will youths who swill Red Bull become adult cocaine addicts?

The above is the question asked to me by Michael Stutzer, who writes: I have attached an increasingly influential paper [“Effects of Adolescent Caffeine Consumption on Cocaine Sensitivity,” by Casey O’Neill, Sophia Levis, Drew Schreiner, Jose Amat, Steven Maier, and Ryan Bachtell] purporting to show the effects of caffeine use in adolescents (well, lab rats […] The post Will youths who swill Red Bull become adult cocaine addicts? appeared first…

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On deck this week

August 8, 2016
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Mon: Shameless little bullies claim that published triathlon times don’t replicate Tues: Boostrapping your posterior Wed: You won’t be able to forget this one: Alleged data manipulation in NIH-funded Alzheimer’s study Thurs: Are stereotypes statistically accurate? Fri: Will youths who swill Red Bull become adult cocaine addicts? Sat: Science reporters are getting the picture Sun: […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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The p-value is a random variable

August 5, 2016
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Sam Behseta sends along this paper by Laura Lazzeroni, Ying Lu, and Ilana Belitskaya-Lévy, who write: P values from identical experiments can differ greatly in a way that is surprising to many. The failure to appreciate this wide variability can lead researchers to expect, without adequate justification, that statistically significant findings will be replicated, only […] The post The p-value is a random variable appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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