Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

“So such markets were, and perhaps are, subject to bias from deep pocketed people who may be expressing preference more than actual expectation”

December 8, 2016
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“So such markets were, and perhaps are, subject to bias from deep pocketed people who may be expressing preference more than actual expectation”

Geoff Buchan writes in with another theory about how prediction markets can go wrong: I did want to mention one fascinating datum on Brexit: one UK bookmaker said they received about twice as many bets on leave as on remain, but the average bet on remain was *five* times what was bet on leave, meaning […] The post “So such markets were, and perhaps are, subject to bias from deep…

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Using Stan in an agent-based model: Simulation suggests that a market could be useful for building public consensus on climate change

December 5, 2016
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Using Stan in an agent-based model:  Simulation suggests that a market could be useful for building public consensus on climate change

Jonathan Gilligan writes: I’m writing to let you know about a preprint that uses Stan in what I think is a novel manner: Two graduate students and I developed an agent-based simulation of a prediction market for climate, in which traders buy and sell securities that are essentially bets on what the global average temperature […] The post Using Stan in an agent-based model: Simulation suggests that a market could…

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Frustration with published results that can’t be reproduced, and journals that don’t seem to care

December 4, 2016
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Frustration with published results that can’t be reproduced, and journals that don’t seem to care

Thomas Heister writes: Your recent post about Per Pettersson-Lidbom frustrations in reproducing study results reminded me of our own recent experience that we had in replicating a paper in PLOSone. We found numerous substantial errors but eventually gave up as, frustratingly, the time and effort didn’t seem to change anything and the journal’s editors quite […] The post Frustration with published results that can’t be reproduced, and journals that don’t…

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“A bug in fMRI software could invalidate 15 years of brain research”

November 29, 2016
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“A bug in fMRI software could invalidate 15 years of brain research”

About 50 people pointed me to this press release or the underlying PPNAS research article, “Cluster failure: Why fMRI inferences for spatial extent have inflated false-positive rates,” by Anders Eklund, Thomas Nichols, and Hans Knutsson, who write: Functional MRI (fMRI) is 25 years old, yet surprisingly its most common statistical methods have not been validated […] The post “A bug in fMRI software could invalidate 15 years of brain research”…

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OK, sometimes the concept of “false positive” makes sense.

November 28, 2016
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OK, sometimes the concept of “false positive” makes sense.

Paul Alper writes: I know by searching your blog that you hold the position, “I’m negative on the expression ‘false positives.'” Nevertheless, I came across this. In the medical/police/judicial world, false positive is a very serious issue: $2 Cost of a typical roadside drug test kit used by police departments. Namely, is that white powder […] The post OK, sometimes the concept of “false positive” makes sense. appeared first on…

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On deck this week

November 21, 2016
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The other day someone asked me why we stopped running our On Deck This Week post every Monday morning. I replied that On Deck is not needed because a few months ago I announced all our posts, in order, through mid-January. See here: My next 170 blog posts (inbox zero and a change of pace). […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Unfinished (so far) draft blog posts

November 20, 2016
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Unfinished (so far) draft blog posts

Most of the time when I start writing a blog post, I continue till its finished. As of this writing this blog has 7128 posts published, 137 scheduled, and only 434 unpublished drafts sitting in the folder. 434 might sound like a lot, but we’ve been blogging for over 10 years, and a bunch of […] The post Unfinished (so far) draft blog posts appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Josh Miller hot hand talks in NYC and Pittsburgh this week

November 15, 2016
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Josh Miller hot hand talks in NYC and Pittsburgh this week

Joshua Miller (the person who, with Adam Sanjurjo, discovered why the so-called “hot hand fallacy” is not really a fallacy) will be speaking on the topic this week. In New York, Thurs 17 Nov, 12:30pm, 19 W 4th St, room 517, Center for Experimental Social Science seminar. In Pittsburgh, Fri 18 Nov, 12pm, 4716 Posvsar […] The post Josh Miller hot hand talks in NYC and Pittsburgh this week appeared…

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Should scientists be allowed to continue to play in the sandbox after they’ve pooped in it?

November 14, 2016
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Should scientists be allowed to continue to play in the sandbox after they’ve pooped in it?

This picture is on topic (click to see the link), but I’d like it even if it weren’t! I think I’ll be illustrating all my posts for awhile with adorable cat images. This is a lot more fun than those Buzzfeed-style headlines we were doing a few months ago. . . . Anyway, back to […] The post Should scientists be allowed to continue to play in the sandbox after…

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How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 2

November 10, 2016
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How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care?  Part 2

This is the second of a series of two posts. Yesterday we discussed the difficulties of learning from a small, noisy experiment, in the context of a longitudinal study conducted in Jamaica where researchers reported that an early-childhood intervention program caused a 42%, or 25%, gain in later earnings. I expressed skepticism. Today I want […] The post How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 2 appeared first…

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