Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

Questions about “Too Good to Be True”

September 2, 2014
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Greg Won writes: I manage a team tasked with, among other things, analyzing data on Air Traffic operations to identify factors that may be associated with elevated risk. I think its fair to characterize our work as “data mining” (e.g., using rule induction, Bayesian, and statistical methods). One of my colleagues sent me a link […] The post Questions about “Too Good to Be True” appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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On deck this week

September 1, 2014
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Mon: Bad Statistics: Ignore or Call Out? Tues: Questions about “Too Good to Be True” Wed: I disagree with Alan Turing and Daniel Kahneman regarding the strength of statistical evidence Thurs: Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals? Fri: Confirmationist and falsificationist paradigms of science Sat: How does inference for next year’s data […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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On deck this month

August 30, 2014
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Bad Statistics: Ignore or Call Out? Questions about “Too Good to Be True” I disagree with Alan Turing and Daniel Kahneman regarding the strength of statistical evidence Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals? Confirmationist and falsificationist paradigms of science How does inference for next year’s data differ from inference for unobserved data […] The post On deck this month appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research

August 29, 2014
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One of my favorites, from 1995. Don Rubin and I argue with Adrian Raftery. Here’s how we begin: Raftery’s paper addresses two important problems in the statistical analysis of social science data: (1) choosing an appropriate model when so much data are available that standard P-values reject all parsimonious models; and (2) making estimates and […] The post Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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On deck this week

August 25, 2014
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Mon: Discussion of “Maximum entropy and the nearly black object” Tues: Review of “Forecasting Elections” Wed: Discussion of “A probabilistic model for the spatial distribution of party support in multiparty elections” Thurs: Pre-election survey methodology: details from nine polling organizations, 1988 and 1992 Fri: Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research Sat, Sun: You might […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Poker math showdown!

August 25, 2014
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Poker math showdown!

In comments, Rick Schoenberg wrote: One thing I tried to say as politely as I could in [the book, "Probability with Texas Holdem Applications"] on p146 is that there’s a huge error in Chen and Ankenman’s “The Mathematics of Poker” which renders all the calculations and formulas in the whole last chapter wrong or meaningless […] The post Poker math showdown! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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On deck this week

August 18, 2014
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Mon: Some quick disorganzed tips on classroom teaching Tues: Stroopy names Wed: “A hard case for Mister P” Thurs: The field is a fractal Fri: Replication Wiki for economics Sat, Sun: As Chris Hedges would say: Stop me if you’ve heard t...

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Luck vs. skill in poker

August 14, 2014
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Luck vs. skill in poker

The thread of our recent discussion of quantifying luck vs. skill in sports turned to poker, motivating the present post. 1. Can good poker players really “read” my cards and figure out what’s in my hand? For a couple years in grad school a group of us had a regular Thursday-night poker game, nickel-dime-quarter with […] The post Luck vs. skill in poker appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Understanding the hot hand, and the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the myth of the hot hand, all at the same time

August 12, 2014
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Josh Miller writes: I came across your paper in the Journal of Management on unreplicable research, and in it you illustrate a point about the null hypothesis via the hot hand literature. I am writing you because I’d like to move your current prior (even if our work uses a classical approach). I am also […] The post Understanding the hot hand, and the myth of the hot hand, and…

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Discussion with Sander Greenland on posterior predictive checks

August 11, 2014
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Discussion with Sander Greenland on posterior predictive checks

Sander Greenland is a leading epidemiologist and educator who’s strongly influenced my thinking on hierarchical models by pointing out that often the data do not supply much information for estimating the group-level variance, a problem that can be particularly severe when the number of groups is low. (And, in some sense, the number of groups […] The post Discussion with Sander Greenland on posterior predictive checks appeared first on Statistical…

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