Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

Online predictions from ipredict

April 21, 2015
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Following up on our post on PredictWise, Richard Barker points to this fun site of market-based predictions. It’s subtitled, “Buy and sell stocks in future political and economic events.” It’s based in New Zealand so you can bet on wacky propositions such as, “David Carter to be next High Commissioner from New Zealand to the […] The post Online predictions from ipredict appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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On deck this week

April 20, 2015
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Mon: New book on Bayesian analysis in ecology using Stan Tues: The feather, the bathroom scale, and the kangaroo Wed: Instead of worrying about multiple hypothesis correction, just fit a hierarchical model. Thurs: Political Attitudes in Social Environments Fri: Statistical significance, practical significance, and interactions Sat: Statistical analysis on a dataset that consists of a […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality

April 17, 2015
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I sent my post about the political implication of behavioral economics, embodied cognition, etc., to Gerd Gigerenzer, who commented as follows: The “half-empty” versus “half-full” explanation of the differences between Kahneman and us misses the essential point: the difference is about the nature of the glass of rationality, not the level of the water. For […] The post Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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A message I just sent to my class

April 15, 2015
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I wanted to add some context to what we talked about in class today. Part of the message I was sending was that there are some stupid things that get published and you should be careful about that: don’t necessarily believe something, just cos it’s statistically significant and published in a top journal. And, sure, […] The post A message I just sent to my class appeared first on Statistical…

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Another stylized fact bites the dust

April 11, 2015
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According to economist Henry Farber (link from Dan Goldstein): In a seminal paper, Camerer, Babcock, Loewenstein, and Thaler (1997) find that the wage elasticity of daily hours of work New York City (NYC) taxi drivers is negative and conclude that their labor supply behavior is consistent with target earning (having reference dependent preferences). I replicate […] The post Another stylized fact bites the dust appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Mistaken identity

April 10, 2015
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Someone I know sent me the following email: The person XX [pseudonym redacted] who posts on your blog is almost certainly YY [name redacted]. So he is referencing his own work and trying to make it sound like it is a third party endorsing it. Not sure why but it bugs me. He is an […] The post Mistaken identity appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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And . . . our featured 2015 seminar speaker is . . . Thomas HOBBES!!!!!

April 7, 2015
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And . . . our featured 2015 seminar speaker is . . . Thomas HOBBES!!!!!

Just in case you’ve forgotten where this all came from: This came in the departmental email awhile ago: CALL FOR APPLICATIONS: LATOUR SEMINAR — DUE DATE AUGUST 11 (extended) The Brown Institute for Media Innovation, Alliance (Columbia University, École Polytechnique, Sciences Po, and Panthéon-Sorbonne University), The Center for Science and Society, and The Faculty of […] The post And . . . our featured 2015 seminar speaker is . .…

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The championship! Thomas Hobbes vs. Philip K. Dick

April 6, 2015
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The championship!  Thomas Hobbes vs. Philip K. Dick

OK, since this is the final round, you’re allowed to make as many Calvin and Hobbes jokes and as many dick jokes as you want. These two guys have been through a lot together. To get here, Hobbes defeated, in order, Larry David, Leo Tolstoy, Chris Rock, Ed Wood, and Miguel de Cervantes; while Dick […] The post The championship! Thomas Hobbes vs. Philip K. Dick appeared first on Statistical…

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Philip K. Dick (2) vs. George Carlin (2); Hobbes advances

April 5, 2015
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For yesterday’s semifinal, I was all ready to go with this argument by Zbicyclist in favor of Cervantes: For someone who wasn’t writing in English, he’s credited with a fair number of English catchphrases. Let’s bring the old guy back to life and see what else he’s got. When thou art at Rome, do as […] The post Philip K. Dick (2) vs. George Carlin (2); Hobbes advances appeared first…

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The Final Four: Cervantes, Hobbes, Dick, Carlin! Today’s semifinal: Miguel de Cervantes (2) vs. Thomas Hobbes

April 4, 2015
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We’re nearing the end! Yesterday‘s winner was decided based on several Carlin quotes. From Paul, a great line on Muhammad Ali: He said, ‘No, that’s where I draw the line. I’ll beat ‘em up, but I don’t want to kill ‘em.’ And the government said, ‘Well, if you won’t kill people, we won’t let you […] The post The Final Four: Cervantes, Hobbes, Dick, Carlin! Today’s semifinal: Miguel de Cervantes…

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