Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

When do statistical rules affect drug approval?

July 22, 2016
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When do statistical rules affect drug approval?

Someone writes in: I have MS and take a disease-modifying drug called Copaxone. Sandoz developed a generic version​ of Copaxone​ and filed for FDA approval. Teva, the manufacturer of Copaxone, filed a petition opposing that approval (surprise!). FDA rejected Teva’s petitions and approved the generic. My insurance company encouraged me to switch to the generic. […] The post When do statistical rules affect drug approval? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Moving statistical theory from a “discovery” framework to a “measurement” framework

July 18, 2016
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Avi Adler points to this post by Felix Schönbrodt on “What’s the probability that a significant p-value indicates a true effect?” I’m sympathetic to the goal of better understanding what’s in a p-value (see for example my paper with John Carlin on type M and type S errors) but I really don’t like the framing […] The post Moving statistical theory from a “discovery” framework to a “measurement” framework appeared…

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On deck this week

July 18, 2016
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Mon: Moving statistical theory from a “discovery” framework to a “measurement” framework Tues: Bayesian Linear Mixed Models using Stan: A tutorial for psychologists, linguists, and cognitive scientists Wed: Going beyond confidence intervals Thurs: Ioannidis: “Evidence-Based Medicine Has Been Hijacked” Fri: What’s powdery and comes out of a metallic-green cardboard can? Sat: “The Dark Side of […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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“Pointwise mutual information as test statistics”

July 17, 2016
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Christian Bartels writes: Most of us will probably agree that making good decisions under uncertainty based on limited data is highly important but remains challenging. We have decision theory that provides a framework to reduce risks of decisions under uncertainty with typical frequentist test statistics being examples for controlling errors in absence of prior knowledge. […] The post “Pointwise mutual information as test statistics” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Replin’ ain’t easy: My very first preregistration

July 15, 2016
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Replin’ ain’t easy:  My very first preregistration

I’m doing my first preregistered replication. And it’s a lot of work! We’ve been discussing this for awhile—here’s something I published in 2013 in response to proposals by James Moneghan and by Macartan Humphreys, Raul Sanchez de la Sierra, and Peter van der Windt for preregistration in political science, here’s a blog discussion (“Preregistration: what’s […] The post Replin’ ain’t easy: My very first preregistration appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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About that claim that police are less likely to shoot blacks than whites

July 14, 2016
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About that claim that police are less likely to shoot blacks than whites

Josh Miller writes: Did you see this splashy NYT headline, “Surprising New Evidence Shows Bias in Police Use of Force but Not in Shootings”? It’s actually looks like a cool study overall, with granular data, and a ton of leg work, and rich set of results that extend beyond the attention grabbing headline that is […] The post About that claim that police are less likely to shoot blacks than…

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Of polls and prediction markets: More on #BrexitFail

July 13, 2016
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Of polls and prediction markets:  More on #BrexitFail

David “Xbox poll” Rothschild and I wrote an article for Slate on how political prediction markets can get things wrong. The short story is that in settings where direct information is not easily available (for example, in elections where polls are not viewed as trustworthy forecasts, whether because of problems in polling or anticipated volatility […] The post Of polls and prediction markets: More on #BrexitFail appeared first on Statistical…

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“Most notably, the vast majority of Americans support criminalizing data fraud, and many also believe the offense deserves a sentence of incarceration.”

July 11, 2016
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“Most notably, the vast majority of Americans support criminalizing data fraud, and many also believe the offense deserves a sentence of incarceration.”

Justin Pickett sends along this paper he wrote with Sean Roche: Data fraud and selective reporting both present serious threats to the credibility of science. However, there remains considerable disagreement among scientists about how best to sanction data fraud, and about the ethicality of selective reporting. OK, let’s move away from asking scientists. Let’s ask […] The post “Most notably, the vast majority of Americans support criminalizing data fraud, and…

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On deck this week

July 11, 2016
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Mon: “Most notably, the vast majority of Americans support criminalizing data fraud, and many also believe the offense deserves a sentence of incarceration.” Tues: Some insider stuff on the Stan refactor Wed: I know you guys think I have no filter, but . . . Thurs: Bigmilk strikes again Fri: “Pointwise mutual information as test […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Causal and predictive inference in policy research

July 9, 2016
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Todd Rogers pointed me to a paper by Jon Kleinberg, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Ziad Obermeyer that begins: Empirical policy research often focuses on causal inference. Since policy choices seem to depend on understanding the counterfactual—what happens with and without a policy—this tight link of causality and policy seems natural. While this link holds […] The post Causal and predictive inference in policy research appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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