Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

The Pandora Principle in statistics — and its malign converse, the ostrich

August 16, 2017
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The Pandora Principle is that once you’ve considered a possible interaction or bias or confounder, you can’t un-think it. The malign converse is when people realize this and then design their studies to avoid putting themselves in a position where they have to consider some potentially important factor. For example, suppose you’re considering some policy […] The post The Pandora Principle in statistics — and its malign converse, the ostrich…

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Wolfram on Golomb

August 7, 2017
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Wolfram on Golomb

I was checking out Stephen Wolfram’s blog and found this excellent obituary of Solomon Golomb, the mathematician who invented the maximum-length linear-feedback shift register sequence, characterized by Wolfram as “probably the single most-used mathematical algorithm idea in history.” But Golomb is probably more famous for inventing polyominoes. The whole thing’s a good read, and it […] The post Wolfram on Golomb appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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An improved ending for The Martian

July 28, 2017
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In this post from a couple years ago I discussed the unsatisfying end of The Martian. At the time, I wrote: The ending is not terrible—at a technical level it’s somewhat satisfying (I’m not enough of a physicist to say more than that), but at the level of construction of a story arc, it didn’t […] The post An improved ending for The Martian appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Died in the Wool

July 26, 2017
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Garrett M. writes: I’m an analyst at an investment management firm. I read your blog daily to improve my understanding of statistics, as it’s central to the work I do. I had two (hopefully straightforward) questions related to time series analysis that I was hoping I could get your thoughts on: First, much of the […] The post Died in the Wool appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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How to design future studies of systemic exercise intolerance disease (chronic fatigue syndrome)?

July 17, 2017
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Someone named Ramsey writes on behalf of a self-managed support community of 100+ systemic exercise intolerance disease (SEID) patients. He read my recent article on the topic and had a question regarding the following excerpt: For conditions like S.E.I.D., then, the better approach may be to gather data from people suffering “in the wild,” combining […] The post How to design future studies of systemic exercise intolerance disease (chronic fatigue…

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Hey—here are some tools in R and Stan to designing more effective clinical trials! How cool is that?

July 15, 2017
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In statistical work, design and data analysis are often considered separately. Sometimes we do all sorts of modeling and planning in the design stage, only to analyze data using simple comparisons. Other times, we design our studies casually, even thoughtlessly, and then try to salvage what we can using elaborate data analyses. It would be […] The post Hey—here are some tools in R and Stan to designing more effective…

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Classical statisticians as Unitarians

July 13, 2017
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Classical statisticians as Unitarians

[cat picture] Christian Robert, Judith Rousseau, and I wrote: Several of the examples in [the book under review] represent solutions to problems that seem to us to be artificial or conventional tasks with no clear analogy to applied work. “They are artificial and are expressed in terms of a survey of 100 individuals expressing support […] The post Classical statisticians as Unitarians appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Statisticians and economists agree: We should learn from data by “generating and revising models, hypotheses, and data analyzed in response to surprising findings.” (That’s what Bayesian data analysis is all about.)

July 6, 2017
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Kevin Lewis points us to this article by economist James Heckman and statistician Burton Singer, who write: All analysts approach data with preconceptions. The data never speak for themselves. Sometimes preconceptions are encoded in precise models. Sometimes they are just intuitions that analysts seek to confirm and solidify. A central question is how to revise […] The post Statisticians and economists agree: We should learn from data by “generating and…

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No, I’m not blocking you or deleting your comments!

July 1, 2017
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Someone wrote in: I am worried you may have blocked me from commenting on your blog (because a couple of comments I made aren’t there). . . . Or maybe I failed to post correctly or maybe you just didn’t think my comments were interesting enough. . . . This comes up from time to […] The post No, I’m not blocking you or deleting your comments! appeared first on…

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Bayesian, but not Bayesian enough

June 28, 2017
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Bayesian, but not Bayesian enough

Will Moir writes: This short New York Times article on a study published in BMJ might be of interest to you and your blog community, both in terms of how the media reports science and also the use of bayesian vs frequentist statistics in the study itself. Here is the short summary from the news […] The post Bayesian, but not Bayesian enough appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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