Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

P-values and statistical practice

September 4, 2015
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What is a p-value in practice? The p-value is a measure of discrepancy of the fit of a model or “null hypothesis” H to data y. In theory the p-value is a continuous measure of evidence, but in practice it is typically trichotomized approximately into strong evidence, weak evidence, and no evidence (these can also […] The post P-values and statistical practice appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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To understand the replication crisis, imagine a world in which everything was published.

September 2, 2015
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To understand the replication crisis, imagine a world in which everything was published.

John Snow points me to this post by psychology researcher Lisa Feldman Barrett who reacted to the recent news on the non-replication of many psychology studies with a contrarian, upbeat take, entitled “Psychology Is Not in Crisis.” Here’s Barrett: An initiative called the Reproducibility Project at the University of Virginia recently reran 100 psychology experiments […] The post To understand the replication crisis, imagine a world in which everything was…

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Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured

August 31, 2015
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Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured

I agree with Uri Simonsohn that you don’t learn much by looking at the distribution of all the p-values that have appeared in some literature. Uri explains: Most p-values reported in most papers are irrelevant for the strategic behavior of interest. Covariates, manipulation checks, main effects in studies testing interactions, etc. Including them we underestimate […] The post Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured appeared first on…

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On deck this week

August 31, 2015
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Mon: Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis Tues: Stan attribution Wed: Cannabis/IQ follow-up: Same old story Thurs: Defining conditional probability Fri: In defense of endless arguments Sat: Emails I never finished reading Sun: B...

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Performing design calculations (type M and type S errors) on a routine basis?

August 29, 2015
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Somebody writes writes: I am conducting a survival analysis (median follow up ~10 years) of subjects who enrolled on a prospective, non-randomized clinical trial for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. The data were originally collected for research purposes and specifically to determine PFS and OS of the investigational regimen versus historic controls. The trial has been […] The post Performing design calculations (type M and type S errors) on a routine…

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“The belief was so strong that it trumped the evidence before them.”

August 24, 2015
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I was reading Palko on the 5 cent cup of coffee and spotted this: We’ve previously talked about bloggers trying to live on a food stamp budget for a week (yeah, that’s a thing). One of the many odd recurring elements of these post is a litany of complaints about life without caffeine because… I had already understood […] The post “The belief was so strong that it trumped the evidence before them.”…

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On deck this week

August 24, 2015
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Mon: “The belief was so strong that it trumped the evidence before them.” Tues: “Can you change your Bayesian prior?” Wed: How to analyze hierarchical survey data with post-stratification? Thurs: A political sociological course on statistics for high school students Fri: Questions about data transplanted in kidney study Sat: Performing design calculations (type M and […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Macartan Humphreys on the Worm Wars

August 18, 2015
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Macartan Humphreys on the Worm Wars

My Columbia political science colleague shares “What Has Been Learned from the Deworming Replications: A Nonpartisan View”: Last month there was another battle in a dispute between economists and epidemiologists over the merits of mass deworming.1 In brief, economists claim there is clear evidence that cheap deworming interventions have large effects on welfare via increased […] The post Macartan Humphreys on the Worm Wars appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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On deck this week

August 17, 2015
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Mon: My 2 classes this fall Tues: “Soylent 1.5” < black beans and yoghurt Wed: 0.05 is a joke Thurs: Data-analysis assignments for BDA class Fri: Aahhhhh, young people! Sat: Plaig! (non-Wegman edition) Sun: We provide a service The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Hey—Don’t trust anything coming from the Tri-Valley Center for Human Potential!

August 13, 2015
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Shravan sends along this article by Douglas Peters and Stephen Ceci, who report: We selected 12 already published research articles by investigators from prestigious and highly productive American psychology departments, one article from each of 12 highly regarded and widely read American psychology journals with high rejection rates (80%) and nonblind refereeing practices. With fictitious […] The post Hey—Don’t trust anything coming from the Tri-Valley Center for Human Potential! appeared…

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