Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

On deck this week

August 18, 2014
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Mon: Some quick disorganzed tips on classroom teaching Tues: Stroopy names Wed: “A hard case for Mister P” Thurs: The field is a fractal Fri: Replication Wiki for economics Sat, Sun: As Chris Hedges would say: Stop me if you’ve heard t...

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Luck vs. skill in poker

August 14, 2014
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Luck vs. skill in poker

The thread of our recent discussion of quantifying luck vs. skill in sports turned to poker, motivating the present post. 1. Can good poker players really “read” my cards and figure out what’s in my hand? For a couple years in grad school a group of us had a regular Thursday-night poker game, nickel-dime-quarter with […] The post Luck vs. skill in poker appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Understanding the hot hand, and the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the myth of the hot hand, all at the same time

August 12, 2014
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Josh Miller writes: I came across your paper in the Journal of Management on unreplicable research, and in it you illustrate a point about the null hypothesis via the hot hand literature. I am writing you because I’d like to move your current prior (even if our work uses a classical approach). I am also […] The post Understanding the hot hand, and the myth of the hot hand, and…

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Discussion with Sander Greenland on posterior predictive checks

August 11, 2014
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Discussion with Sander Greenland on posterior predictive checks

Sander Greenland is a leading epidemiologist and educator who’s strongly influenced my thinking on hierarchical models by pointing out that often the data do not supply much information for estimating the group-level variance, a problem that can be particularly severe when the number of groups is low. (And, in some sense, the number of groups […] The post Discussion with Sander Greenland on posterior predictive checks appeared first on Statistical…

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On deck this week

August 11, 2014
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Mon: Discussion with Sander Greenland on posterior predictive checks Tues: Understanding the hot hand, and the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the myth of the hot hand, all at the same time Wed: Updike and O’Hara Thurs: Luck […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Estimated effect of early childhood intervention downgraded from 42% to 25%

August 8, 2014
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Last year I came across an article, “Labor Market Returns to Early Childhood Stimulation: a 20-year Followup to an Experimental Intervention in Jamaica,” by Paul Gertler, James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto, Arianna Zanolini, Christel Vermeerch, Susan Walker, Susan M. Chang, and Sally Grantham-McGregor, that claimed that early childhood stimulation raised adult earnings by 42%. At the […] The post Estimated effect of early childhood intervention downgraded from 42% to 25% appeared…

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Nate Silver’s website

August 7, 2014
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Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes: I believe you are aware that Nate Silver spoke at last year’s JSM and that he began a publication under ESPN (http://fivethirtyeight.com/). Do you have any opinions on the publication? Maybe some you wish to share with the public. I was hoping to hear your opinions about 538 […] The post Nate Silver’s website appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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On deck this week

August 4, 2014
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Mon: Correlation does not even imply correlation Tues: When doing scientific replication or criticism, collaboration with the original authors is fine but I don’t think it should be a requirement or even an expectation Wed: Scientific communication by press release Thurs: Nate Silver’s website Fri: Estimated effect of early childhood intervention downgraded from 42% to […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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The “scientific surprise” two-step

August 1, 2014
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During the past year or so, we’ve been discussing a bunch of “Psychological Science”-style papers in which dramatic claims are made based on somewhat open-ended analysis of small samples with noisy measurements. One thing that comes up in some of these discussions is that the people performing the studies say that they did not fish […] The post The “scientific surprise” two-step appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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The health policy innovation center: how best to move from pilot studies to large-scale practice?

July 31, 2014
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A colleague pointed me to this news article regarding evaluation of new health plans: The Affordable Care Act would fund a new research outfit evocatively named the Innovation Center to discover how to most effectively deliver health care, with $10 billion to spend over a decade. But now that the center has gotten started, many […] The post The health policy innovation center: how best to move from pilot studies…

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