Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

Creativity is the ability to see relationships where none exist

May 22, 2015
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Creativity is the ability to see relationships where none exist

Brent Goldfarb and Andrew King, in a paper to appear in the journal Strategic Management, write: In a recent issue of this journal, Bettis (2012) reports a conversation with a graduate student who forthrightly announced that he had been trained by faculty to “search for asterisks”. The student explained that he sifted through large databases […] The post Creativity is the ability to see relationships where none exist appeared first…

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Can talk therapy halve the rate of cancer recurrence? How to think about the statistical significance of this finding? Is it just another example of the garden of forking paths?

May 21, 2015
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James Coyne (who we last encountered in the sad story of Ellen Langer) writes: I’m writing to you now about another matter about which I hope you will offer an opinion. Here is a critique of a study, as well as the original study that claimed to find an effect of group psychotherapy on time […] The post Can talk therapy halve the rate of cancer recurrence? How to think…

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Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks

May 19, 2015
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This came up in an email exchange regarding a plan to come up with and evaluate Bayesian prediction algorithms for a medical application: I would not refer to the existing prediction algorithm as frequentist. Frequentist refers to the evaluation of statistical procedures but it doesn’t really say where the estimate or prediction comes from. Rather, […] The post Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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New Alan Turing preprint on Arxiv!

May 19, 2015
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New Alan Turing preprint on Arxiv!

Dan Kahan writes: I know you are on 30-day delay, but since the blog version of you will be talking about Bayesian inference in couple of hours, you might like to look at paper by Turing, who is on 70-yr delay thanks to British declassification system, who addresses the utility of using likelihood ratios for […] The post New Alan Turing preprint on Arxiv! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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On deck this week

May 18, 2015
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Mon: Bob Carpenter’s favorite books on GUI design and programming Tues: Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks Wed: Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” Thurs: “Physical Models of Living Systems” Fri: Creativity is the abilit...

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My talk at MIT this Thursday

May 13, 2015
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When I was a student at MIT, there was no statistics department. I took a statistics course from Stephan Morgenthaler and liked it. (I’d already taken probability and stochastic processes back at the University of Maryland; my instructor in the latter class was Prof. Grace Yang, who was super-nice. I couldn’t follow half of what […] The post My talk at MIT this Thursday appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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There’s No Such Thing As Unbiased Estimation. And It’s a Good Thing, Too.

May 11, 2015
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There’s No Such Thing As Unbiased Estimation. And It’s a Good Thing, Too.

Following our recent post on econometricians’ traditional privileging of unbiased estimates, there were a bunch of comments echoing the challenge of teaching this topic, as students as well as practitioners often seem to want the comfort of an absolute standard such as best linear unbiased estimate or whatever. Commenters also discussed the tradeoff between bias […] The post There’s No Such Thing As Unbiased Estimation. And It’s a Good Thing,…

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On deck this week

May 11, 2015
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Mon: There’s No Such Thing As Unbiased Estimation. And It’s a Good Thing, Too. Tues: There’s something about humans Wed: Humility needed in decision-making Thurs: The connection between varying treatment effects and the well-known optimism of published research findings Fri: I actually think this infographic is ok Sat: Apology to George A. Romero Sun: “Do […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Collaborative filtering, hierarchical modeling, and . . . speed dating

May 10, 2015
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Collaborative filtering, hierarchical modeling, and . . . speed dating

Jonah Sinick posted a few things on the famous speed-dating dataset and writes: The main element that I seem to have been missing is principal component analysis of the different rating types. The basic situation is that the first PC is something that people are roughly equally responsive to, while people vary a lot with […] The post Collaborative filtering, hierarchical modeling, and . . . speed dating appeared first…

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What I got wrong (and right) about econometrics and unbiasedness

May 8, 2015
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Yesterday I spoke at the Princeton economics department. The title of my talk was: “Unbiasedness”: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. The talk went all right—people seemed ok with what I was saying—but I didn’t see a lot of audience involvement. It was a bit […] The post What I got wrong (and right) about econometrics and unbiasedness appeared first…

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