Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

Redemption

September 16, 2016
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Redemption

I’ve spent a lot of time mocking Mark Hauser on this blog, and I still find it annoying that, according to the accounts I’ve seen, he behaved unethically toward his graduate students and lab assistants, he never apologized for manipulating data, and, perhaps most unconscionably, he wasted the lives of who knows how many monkeys […] The post Redemption appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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An auto-mechanic-style sign for data sharing

September 16, 2016
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An auto-mechanic-style sign for data sharing

Yesterday’s story reminds me of that sign you used to see at the car repair shop: Maybe we need something similar for data access rules: DATA RATES PER HOUR If you want to write a press release for us $ 50.00 If you want to write a new paper using our data $ 90.00 If […] The post An auto-mechanic-style sign for data sharing appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Hypothesis Testing is a Bad Idea (my talk at Warwick, England, 2pm Thurs 15 Sept)

September 10, 2016
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This is the conference, and here’s my talk (will do Google hangout, just as with my recent talks in Bern, Strasbourg, etc): Hypothesis Testing is a Bad Idea Through a series of examples, we consider problems with classical hypothesis testing, whether performed using classical p-values or confidence intervals, Bayes factors, or Bayesian inference using noninformative […] The post Hypothesis Testing is a Bad Idea (my talk at Warwick, England, 2pm…

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Exploration vs. exploitation tradeoff

September 9, 2016
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Exploration vs. exploitation tradeoff

Alon Levy (link from Palko) looks into “Hyperloop, a loopy intercity rail transit idea proposed by Tesla Motors’ Elon Musk, an entrepreneur who hopes to make a living some day building cars,” and writes: There is a belief within American media that a successful person can succeed at anything. He (and it’s invariably he) is […] The post Exploration vs. exploitation tradeoff appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Hokey mas, indeed

September 9, 2016
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Hokey mas, indeed

Paul Alper writes: The pictures which often accompany your blog are really “inside baseball” and I frequently fail to see the connection to the accompanying text. For example, when I click on today’s picture, I get: This happens to interest me because our granddaughter, who is now two years old and attends a Spanish-speaking daycare, […] The post Hokey mas, indeed appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Take that, Bruno Frey! Pharma company busts through Arrow’s theorem, sets new record!

September 1, 2016
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I will tell a story and then ask a question. The story: “Thousands of Americans are alive today because they were luckily selected to be in the placebo arm of the study” Paul Alper writes: As far as I can tell, you have never written about Tambocor (Flecainide) and the so-called CAST study. A locally […] The post Take that, Bruno Frey! Pharma company busts through Arrow’s theorem, sets new…

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A day in the life

August 25, 2016
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I like to post approx one item per day on this blog, so when multiple things come up in the same day, I worry about the sustainability of all this. I suppose I could up the posting rate to 2 a day but I think that could be too much of a burden on the […] The post A day in the life appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

August 24, 2016
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Hey pollsters!  Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

Alan Abramowitz writes: In five days, Clinton’s lead increased from 5 points to 12 points. And Democratic party ID margin increased from 3 points to 10 points. No, I don’t think millions of voters switched to the Democratic party. I think Democrats are were just more likely to respond in that second poll. And, remember, […] The post Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to…

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Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance of careful measurement in randomized experiments

August 24, 2016
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At Bank Underground: When studying the effects of interventions on individual behavior, the experimental research template is typically: Gather a bunch of people who are willing to participate in an experiment, randomly divide them into two groups, assign one treatment to group A and the other to group B, then measure the outcomes. If you […] The post Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance…

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Bayesian inference completely solves the multiple comparisons problem

August 22, 2016
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Bayesian inference completely solves the multiple comparisons problem

I promised I wouldn’t do any new blogging until January but I’m here at this conference and someone asked me a question about the above slide from my talk. The point of the story in that slide is that flat priors consistently give bad inferences. Or, to put it another way, the routine use of […] The post Bayesian inference completely solves the multiple comparisons problem appeared first on Statistical…

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