Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

On deck this week

July 6, 2015
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Mon: Discreteland and Continuousland Tues: “There are many studies showing . . .” Wed: An Excel add-in for regression analysis Thurs: Unreplicable Fri: Economists betting on replication Sat: Inauthentic leadership? Development and validation ...

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Humility needed in decision-making

July 2, 2015
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Brian MacGillivray and Nick Pidgeon write: Daniel Gilbert maintains that people generally make bad decisions on risk issues, and suggests that communication strategies and education programmes would help (Nature 474, 275–277; 2011). This version of the deficit model pervades policy-making and branches of the social sciences. In this model, conflicts between expert and public perceptions […] The post Humility needed in decision-making appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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On deck this week

June 29, 2015
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Mon: God is in every leaf of every probability puzzle Tues: Where does Mister P draw the line? Wed: Recently in the sister blog Thurs: Humility needed in decision-making Fri: “Why should anyone believe that? Why does it make sense to model a series of astronomical events as though they were spins of a roulette […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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On deck this week

June 22, 2015
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Mon: Hey, what’s up with that x-axis?? Tues: A question about race based stratification Wed: Our new column in the Daily Beast Thurs: Irwin Shaw: “I might mistrust intellectuals, but I’d mistrust nonintellectuals even more.” Fri: An amusing window into folk genetics Sat: “Faith means belief in something concerning which doubt is theoretically possible.” — […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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“When more data steer us wrong: replications with the wrong dependent measure perpetuate erroneous conclusions”

June 21, 2015
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Evan Heit sent in this article with Caren Rotello and Chad Dubé: There is a replication crisis in science, to which psychological research has not been immune: Many effects have proven uncomfortably difficult to reproduce. Although the reliability of data is a serious concern, we argue that there is a deeper and more insidious problem […] The post “When more data steer us wrong: replications with the wrong dependent measure…

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In which a complete stranger offers me a bet

June 19, 2015
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In which a complete stranger offers me a bet

Piotr Mitros wrote to Deb and me: I read, with pleasure, your article about the impossibility of biasing a coin. I’m curious as to whether researchers believe what they write. Would you be willing to place some form of iterated bet? For example: I provide a two-sided coin and a table. The table looks like […] The post In which a complete stranger offers me a bet appeared first on…

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Born-open data

June 17, 2015
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Born-open data

Jeff Rouder writes: Although many researchers agree that scientific data should be open to scrutiny to ferret out poor analyses and outright fraud, most raw data sets are not available on demand. There are many reasons researchers do not open their data, and one is technical. It is often time consuming to prepare and archive […] The post Born-open data appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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On deck this week

June 15, 2015
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Mon: Because there is no observable certainty other than the existence of thought Tues: Michael LaCour in 20 years Wed: Born-open data Thurs: You can crush us, you can bruise us, yes, even shoot us, but oh—not a pie chart! Fri: In which a complete stranger offers me a bet Sat: Statistics Be Sun: “When […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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“The psychologists are getting a hard time for doing what they do, whereas people doing real harm to society are happily roaming around like free range chicken”

June 8, 2015
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“The psychologists are getting a hard time for doing what they do, whereas people doing real harm to society are happily roaming around like free range chicken”

Shravan Vasishth writes: At least people like Amy Cuddy are just doing bullshit research that’s harmless (after all, raising your arms up high before an interview is unlikely to hurt society much). But check out this MIT “Professor” explaining the “statistically significant” autism-vaccine “connection”: She even takes a notorious, fraudulent, and retracted Lancet article as […] The post “The psychologists are getting a hard time for doing what they do,…

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On deck this week

June 8, 2015
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Mon: “The psychologists are getting a hard time for doing what they do, whereas people doing real harm to society are happily roaming around like free range chicken” Tues: The posterior distribution of the likelihood ratio as a summary of evidence Wed: “Best Linear Unbiased Prediction” is exactly like the Holy Roman Empire Thurs: Applied […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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