Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

Some will spam you with a six-gun and some with a fountain pen

September 22, 2014
By
Some will spam you with a six-gun and some with a fountain pen

A few weeks ago the following came in the email: Dear Professor Gelman, I am writing you because I am a prospective doctoral student with considerable interest in your research. My name is Xian Zhao, but you can call me by my English name Alex, a student from China. My plan is to apply to […] The post Some will spam you with a six-gun and some with a fountain…

Read more »

On deck this week

September 22, 2014
By

Mon: Some will spam you with a six-gun and some with a fountain pen Tues: Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim that subliminal smiley-faces can have big effects on political attitudes Wed: Study published in 2011, followed by successful replication in 2003 [sic] Thurs: Waic for time series Fri: MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum Sat: “An […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Read more »

I can’t think of a good title for this one.

September 21, 2014
By
I can’t think of a good title for this one.

Andrew Lee writes: I recently read in the MIT Technology Review about some researchers claiming to remove “bias” from the wisdom of crowds by focusing on those more “confident” in their views. I [Lee] was puzzled by this result/claim because I always thought that people who (1) are more willing to reassess their priors and […] The post I can’t think of a good title for this one. appeared first…

Read more »

What does CNN have in common with Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and Richard Tol: They all made foolish, embarrassing errors that would never have happened had they been using R Markdown

September 19, 2014
By
What does CNN have in common with Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and Richard Tol:  They all made foolish, embarrassing errors that would never have happened had they been using R Markdown

Rachel Cunliffe shares this delight: Had the CNN team used an integrated statistical analysis and display system such as R Markdown, nobody would’ve needed to type in the numbers by hand, and the above embarrassment never would’ve occurred. And CNN should be embarrassed about this: it’s much worse than a simple typo, as it indicates […] The post What does CNN have in common with Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and…

Read more »

On deck this week

September 15, 2014
By

Mon: More bad news for the buggy-whip manufacturers Tues: They know my email but they don’t know me Wed: What do you do to visualize uncertainty? Thurs: Sokal: “science is not merely a bag of clever tricks . . . Rather, the natural sciences are nothing more or less than one particular application — albeit […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Read more »

Six quotes from Kaiser Fung

September 14, 2014
By

You may think you have all of the data. You don’t. One of the biggest myth of Big Data is that data alone produce complete answers. Their “data” have done no arguing; it is the humans who are making this claim. Before getting into the methodological issues, one needs to ask the most basic question. […] The post Six quotes from Kaiser Fung appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

“It’s as if you went into a bathroom in a bar and saw a guy pissing on his shoes, and instead of thinking he has some problem with his aim, you suppose he has a positive utility for getting his shoes wet”

September 10, 2014
By
“It’s as if you went into a bathroom in a bar and saw a guy pissing on his shoes, and instead of thinking he has some problem with his aim, you suppose he has a positive utility for getting his shoes wet”

The notion of a geocentric universe has come under criticism from Copernican astronomy. . . . A couple months ago in a discussion of differences between econometrics and statistics, I alluded to the well-known fact that everyday uncertainty aversion can’t be explained by a declining marginal utility of money. What really bothers me—it’s been bothering […] The post “It’s as if you went into a bathroom in a bar and…

Read more »

On deck this week

September 8, 2014
By

Mon: My talk with David Schiminovich this Wed noon: “The Birth of the Universe and the Fate of the Earth: One Trillion UV Photons Meet Stan” Tues: Suspiciously vague graph purporting to show “percentage of slaves or serfs in the world” Wed: “It’s as if you went into a bathroom in a bar and saw […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Read more »

Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals?

September 4, 2014
By

Gabriel Power asks the above question, writing: I don’t recall seeing, on your blog or elsewhere, this question raised directly. Of course there is much talk about the importance of replication, mostly by statisticians, and economists are grudgingly following suit with top journals requiring datasets and code. But why not make it a simple requirement? […] The post Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals? appeared first on…

Read more »

Questions about “Too Good to Be True”

September 2, 2014
By

Greg Won writes: I manage a team tasked with, among other things, analyzing data on Air Traffic operations to identify factors that may be associated with elevated risk. I think its fair to characterize our work as “data mining” (e.g., using rule induction, Bayesian, and statistical methods). One of my colleagues sent me a link […] The post Questions about “Too Good to Be True” appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe