Posts Tagged ‘ Decision Theory ’

“Now the company appears to have screwed up badly, and they’ve done it in pretty much exactly the way you would expect a company to screw up when it doesn’t drill down into the data.”

December 15, 2014
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Palko tells a good story: One of the accepted truths of the Netflix narrative is that CEO Reed Hastings is obsessed with data and everything the company does is data driven . . . Of course, all 21st century corporations are relatively data-driven. The fact that Netflix has large data sets on customer behavior does […] The post “Now the company appears to have screwed up badly, and they’ve done…

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On deck this week

December 15, 2014
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Mon: “Now the company appears to have screwed up badly, and they’ve done it in pretty much exactly the way you would expect a company to screw up when it doesn’t drill down into the data.” Tues: Expectation propagation as a way of life Wed: I’d like to see a preregistered replication on this one […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals

December 11, 2014
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The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals

Richard Morey writes: On the tail of our previous paper about confidence intervals, showing that researchers tend to misunderstand the inferences one can draw from CIs, we [Morey, Rink Hoekstra, Jeffrey Rouder, Michael Lee, and EJ Wagenmakers] have another paper that we have just submitted which talks about the theory underlying inference by CIs. Our […] The post The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals appeared first on Statistical…

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Don’t believe everything you read in the (scientific) papers

December 9, 2014
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Don’t believe everything you read in the (scientific) papers

A journalist writes in with a question: This study on [sexy topic] is getting a lot of attention, and I wanted to see if you had a few minutes to look it over for me . . . Basically, I am somewhat skeptical of [sexy subject area] explanations of complex behavior, and in this case […] The post Don’t believe everything you read in the (scientific) papers appeared first on…

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On deck this week

December 8, 2014
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Mon: Steven Pinker on writing: Where I agree and where I disagree Tues: Buggy-whip update Wed: The inclination to deny all variation Thurs: The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals Fri: Saying things that are out of place Sat: Don’t, don’t, don’t, don’t . . . We’re brothers of the same mind, unblind Sun: […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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On deck this week

December 1, 2014
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Mon: Quick tips on giving research presentations Tues: How to read (in quantitative social science). And by implication, how to write. Wed: If observational studies are outlawed, then only outlaws will do observational studies Thurs: Designing a study to see if “the 10x programmer” is a real thing Fri: The persistence of the “schools are […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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On deck this month

December 1, 2014
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Here goes: Quick tips on giving research presentations How to read (in quantitative social science). And by implication, how to write. If observational studies are outlawed, then only outlaws will do observational studies Designing a study to see if “the 10x programmer” is a real thing The persistence of the “schools are failing” story line […] The post On deck this month appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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On deck this week

November 24, 2014
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Mon: The hype cycle starts again Tues: I (almost and inadvertently) followed Dan Kahan’s principles in my class today, and that was a good thing (would’ve even been more of a good thing had I realized what I was doing and done it better, but I think I will do better in the future, which […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Princeton Abandons Grade Deflation Plan . . .

November 23, 2014
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Princeton Abandons Grade Deflation Plan . . .

. . . and Kaiser Fung is unhappy. In a post entitled, “Princeton’s loss of nerve,” Kaiser writes: This development is highly regrettable, and a failure of leadership. (The new policy leaves it to individual departments to do whatever they want.) The recent Alumni publication has two articles about this topic, one penned by President […] The post Princeton Abandons Grade Deflation Plan . . . appeared first on Statistical…

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“If you’re not using a proper, informative prior, you’re leaving money on the table.”

November 21, 2014
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Well put, Rob Weiss. This is not to say that one must always use an informative prior; oftentimes it can make sense to throw away some information for reasons of convenience. But it’s good to remember that, if you do use a noninformative prior, ...

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