Posts Tagged ‘ Causal Inference ’

OK, sometimes the concept of “false positive” makes sense.

November 28, 2016
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OK, sometimes the concept of “false positive” makes sense.

Paul Alper writes: I know by searching your blog that you hold the position, “I’m negative on the expression ‘false positives.'” Nevertheless, I came across this. In the medical/police/judicial world, false positive is a very serious issue: $2 Cost of a typical roadside drug test kit used by police departments. Namely, is that white powder […] The post OK, sometimes the concept of “false positive” makes sense. appeared first on…

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How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 2

November 10, 2016
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How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care?  Part 2

This is the second of a series of two posts. Yesterday we discussed the difficulties of learning from a small, noisy experiment, in the context of a longitudinal study conducted in Jamaica where researchers reported that an early-childhood intervention program caused a 42%, or 25%, gain in later earnings. I expressed skepticism. Today I want […] The post How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 2 appeared first…

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How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 2

November 10, 2016
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How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care?  Part 2

This is the second of a series of two posts. Yesterday we discussed the difficulties of learning from a small, noisy experiment, in the context of a longitudinal study conducted in Jamaica where researchers reported that an early-childhood intervention program caused a 42%, or 25%, gain in later earnings. I expressed skepticism. Today I want […] The post How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 2 appeared first…

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How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 1

November 9, 2016
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This is the first of a series of two posts. We’ve talked before about various empirically-based claims of the effectiveness of early childhood intervention. In a much-publicized 2013 paper based on a study of 130 four-year-old children in Jamaica, Paul Gertler et al. claimed that a particular program caused a 42% increase in the participants’ […] The post How effective (or counterproductive) is universal child care? Part 1 appeared first…

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A four-way conversation on weighting and regression for causal inference

September 2, 2016
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It started with a project that Sharad Goel is doing, comparing decisions of judges in an urban court system. Sharad was talking with Avi Feller, Art Owen, and me about estimating the effect of a certain decision option that judges have, controlling for pre-treatment differences between defendants. Art: I’m interested in what that data shows […] The post A four-way conversation on weighting and regression for causal inference appeared first…

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Take that, Bruno Frey! Pharma company busts through Arrow’s theorem, sets new record!

September 1, 2016
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I will tell a story and then ask a question. The story: “Thousands of Americans are alive today because they were luckily selected to be in the placebo arm of the study” Paul Alper writes: As far as I can tell, you have never written about Tambocor (Flecainide) and the so-called CAST study. A locally […] The post Take that, Bruno Frey! Pharma company busts through Arrow’s theorem, sets new…

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Birthdays and heat waves

August 29, 2016
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I mentioned the birthdays example in a talk the other day, and Hal Varian pointed me to some research by David Lam and Jeffrey Miron, papers from the 1990s with titles like Seasonality of Births in Human Populations, The Effect of Temperature on Human Fertility, and Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability, Conceptions, and Births. Aki and […] The post Birthdays and heat waves appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance of careful measurement in randomized experiments

August 24, 2016
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At Bank Underground: When studying the effects of interventions on individual behavior, the experimental research template is typically: Gather a bunch of people who are willing to participate in an experiment, randomly divide them into two groups, assign one treatment to group A and the other to group B, then measure the outcomes. If you […] The post Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance…

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Calorie labeling reduces obesity Obesity increased more slowly in California, Seattle, Portland (Oregon), and NYC, compared to some other places in the west coast and northeast that didn’t have calorie labeling

August 16, 2016
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Calorie labeling reduces obesity Obesity increased more slowly in California, Seattle, Portland (Oregon), and NYC, compared to some other places in the west coast and northeast that didn’t have calorie labeling

Ted Kyle writes: I wonder if you might have some perspective to offer on this analysis by Partha Deb and Carmen Vargas regarding restaurant calorie counts. [Thin columnist] Cass Sunstein says it proves “that calorie labels have had a large and beneficial effect on those who most need them.” I wonder about the impact of […] The post Calorie labeling reduces obesity Obesity increased more slowly in California, Seattle, Portland…

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Does Benadryl make you senile? Challenges in research communication

July 29, 2016
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Does Benadryl make you senile?  Challenges in research communication

Mark Tuttle points to a post, “Common anticholinergic drugs like Benadryl linked to increased dementia risk” by Beverly Merz, Executive Editor, Harvard Women’s Health Watch. Merz writes: In a report published in JAMA Internal Medicine, researchers offers compelling evidence of a link between long-term use of anticholinergic medications like Benadryl and dementia. . . . […] The post Does Benadryl make you senile? Challenges in research communication appeared first on…

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