Posts Tagged ‘ Causal Inference ’

A four-way conversation on weighting and regression for causal inference

September 2, 2016
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It started with a project that Sharad Goel is doing, comparing decisions of judges in an urban court system. Sharad was talking with Avi Feller, Art Owen, and me about estimating the effect of a certain decision option that judges have, controlling for pre-treatment differences between defendants. Art: I’m interested in what that data shows […] The post A four-way conversation on weighting and regression for causal inference appeared first…

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Take that, Bruno Frey! Pharma company busts through Arrow’s theorem, sets new record!

September 1, 2016
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I will tell a story and then ask a question. The story: “Thousands of Americans are alive today because they were luckily selected to be in the placebo arm of the study” Paul Alper writes: As far as I can tell, you have never written about Tambocor (Flecainide) and the so-called CAST study. A locally […] The post Take that, Bruno Frey! Pharma company busts through Arrow’s theorem, sets new…

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Birthdays and heat waves

August 29, 2016
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I mentioned the birthdays example in a talk the other day, and Hal Varian pointed me to some research by David Lam and Jeffrey Miron, papers from the 1990s with titles like Seasonality of Births in Human Populations, The Effect of Temperature on Human Fertility, and Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability, Conceptions, and Births. Aki and […] The post Birthdays and heat waves appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance of careful measurement in randomized experiments

August 24, 2016
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At Bank Underground: When studying the effects of interventions on individual behavior, the experimental research template is typically: Gather a bunch of people who are willing to participate in an experiment, randomly divide them into two groups, assign one treatment to group A and the other to group B, then measure the outcomes. If you […] The post Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance…

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Calorie labeling reduces obesity Obesity increased more slowly in California, Seattle, Portland (Oregon), and NYC, compared to some other places in the west coast and northeast that didn’t have calorie labeling

August 16, 2016
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Calorie labeling reduces obesity Obesity increased more slowly in California, Seattle, Portland (Oregon), and NYC, compared to some other places in the west coast and northeast that didn’t have calorie labeling

Ted Kyle writes: I wonder if you might have some perspective to offer on this analysis by Partha Deb and Carmen Vargas regarding restaurant calorie counts. [Thin columnist] Cass Sunstein says it proves “that calorie labels have had a large and beneficial effect on those who most need them.” I wonder about the impact of […] The post Calorie labeling reduces obesity Obesity increased more slowly in California, Seattle, Portland…

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Does Benadryl make you senile? Challenges in research communication

July 29, 2016
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Does Benadryl make you senile?  Challenges in research communication

Mark Tuttle points to a post, “Common anticholinergic drugs like Benadryl linked to increased dementia risk” by Beverly Merz, Executive Editor, Harvard Women’s Health Watch. Merz writes: In a report published in JAMA Internal Medicine, researchers offers compelling evidence of a link between long-term use of anticholinergic medications like Benadryl and dementia. . . . […] The post Does Benadryl make you senile? Challenges in research communication appeared first on…

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Killer O

July 25, 2016
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Killer O

Taggert Brooks points to this excellent news article by George Johnson, who reports: Epidemiologists have long been puzzled by a strange pattern in their data: People living at higher altitudes appear less likely to get lung cancer. . . . The higher you live, the thinner the air, so maybe oxygen is a cause of […] The post Killer O appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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One-day workshop on causal inference (NYC, Sat. 16 July)

July 15, 2016
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James Savage is teaching a one-day workshop on causal inference this coming Saturday (16 July) in New York using RStanArm. Here’s a link to the details: One-day workshop on causal inference Here’s the course outline: How do prices affect sales? What is the uplift from a marketing decision? By how much will studying for an […] The post One-day workshop on causal inference (NYC, Sat. 16 July) appeared first on…

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About that claim that police are less likely to shoot blacks than whites

July 14, 2016
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About that claim that police are less likely to shoot blacks than whites

Josh Miller writes: Did you see this splashy NYT headline, “Surprising New Evidence Shows Bias in Police Use of Force but Not in Shootings”? It’s actually looks like a cool study overall, with granular data, and a ton of leg work, and rich set of results that extend beyond the attention grabbing headline that is […] The post About that claim that police are less likely to shoot blacks than…

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Causal and predictive inference in policy research

July 9, 2016
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Todd Rogers pointed me to a paper by Jon Kleinberg, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Ziad Obermeyer that begins: Empirical policy research often focuses on causal inference. Since policy choices seem to depend on understanding the counterfactual—what happens with and without a policy—this tight link of causality and policy seems natural. While this link holds […] The post Causal and predictive inference in policy research appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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