# Posts Tagged ‘ Causal Inference ’

## One data pattern, many interpretations

February 13, 2018
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David Pittelli points us to this paper: “When Is Higher Neuroticism Protective Against Death? Findings From UK Biobank,” and writes: They come to a rather absurd conclusion, in my opinion, which is that neuroticism is protective if, and only if, you say you are in bad health, overlooking the probability that neuroticism instead makes you […] The post One data pattern, many interpretations appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

## Testing Seth Roberts’ appetite theory

February 13, 2018
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Jonathan Tupper writes: My organization is running a group test of Seth Roberts’ old theory about appetite. We are running something like a “web trial” as discussed in your Chance article with Seth. And in fact our design was very inspired by your conversation… For one, we are using a control group which takes light […] The post Testing Seth Roberts’ appetite theory appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

## I’m skeptical of the claims made in this paper

February 9, 2018
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Two different people pointed me to a recent research article, suggesting that the claims therein were implausible and the result of some combination of forking paths and spurious correlations—that is, there was doubt that the results would show up in a preregistered replication, and that, if they did show up, that they would mean what […] The post I’m skeptical of the claims made in this paper appeared first on…

## What’s Wrong with “Evidence-Based Medicine” and How Can We Do Better? (My talk at the University of Michigan Friday 2pm)

February 8, 2018
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Tomorrow (Fri 9 Feb) 2pm at the NCRC Research Auditorium (Building 10) at the University of Michigan: What’s Wrong with “Evidence-Based Medicine” and How Can We Do Better? Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University “Evidence-based medicine” sounds like a good idea, but it can run into problems when the […] The post What’s Wrong with “Evidence-Based Medicine” and How Can We Do Better? (My…

## 354 possible control groups; what to do?

February 8, 2018
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Jonas Cederlöf writes: I’m a PhD student in economics at Stockholm University and a frequent reader of your blog. I have for a long time followed your quest in trying to bring attention to p-hacking and multiple comparison problems in research. I’m now myself faced with the aforementioned problem and want to at the very […] The post 354 possible control groups; what to do? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## The difference between me and you is that I’m not on fire

January 19, 2018
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$The difference between me and you is that I’m not on fire$

“Eat what you are while you’re falling apart and it opened a can of worms. The gun’s in my hand and I know it looks bad, but believe me I’m innocent.” – Mclusky While the next episode of Madam Secretary buffers on terrible hotel internet, I (the other other white meat) thought I’d pop in […] The post The difference between me and you is that I’m not on fire…

## Brexit^{-1}

January 15, 2018
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I've been asked to post about the EuroCIM (European Causal Inference Meeting), which will be held later this year in Florence. I very happily oblige, because: a) this is usually a very good conference; b) it is organised by nice and obviously very good...

## Benefits and limitations of randomized controlled trials: I agree with Deaton and Cartwright

January 8, 2018
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My discussion of “Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials,” by Angus Deaton and Nancy Cartwright, for Social Science & Medicine: I agree with Deaton and Cartwright that randomized trials are often overrated. There is a strange form of reasoning we often see in science, which is the idea that a chain of reasoning is as […] The post Benefits and limitations of randomized controlled trials: I agree with Deaton and…

## Fitting multilevel models when predictors and group effects correlate

November 12, 2017
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Ryan Bain writes: I came across your ‘Fitting Multilevel Models When Predictors and Group Effects Correlate‘ paper that you co-authored with Dr. Bafumi and read it with great interest. I am a current postgraduate student at the University of Glasgow writing a dissertation examining explanations of Euroscepticism at the individual and country level since the […] The post Fitting multilevel models when predictors and group effects correlate appeared first on…

## Why you can’t simply estimate the hot hand using regression

November 6, 2017
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Jacob Schumaker writes: Reformed political scientist, now software engineer here. Re: the hot hand fallacy fallacy from Miller and Sanjurjo, has anyone discussed why a basic regression doesn’t solve this? If they have I haven’t seen it. The idea is just that there are other ways of measuring the hot hand. When I think of […] The post Why you can’t simply estimate the hot hand using regression appeared first…