Posts Tagged ‘ Causal Inference ’

About that quasi-retracted study on the Mediterranean diet . . .

June 15, 2018
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Some people asked me what I thought about this story. A reporter wrote to me about it last week, asking if it looked like fraud. Here’s my reply: Based on the description, there does not seem to be the implication of fraud. The editor’s report mentioned “protocol deviations, including the enrollment of participants who were […] The post About that quasi-retracted study on the Mediterranean diet . . . appeared…

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Some experiments are just too noisy to tell us much of anything at all: Political science edition

May 29, 2018
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Some experiments are just too noisy to tell us much of anything at all:  Political science edition

Sointu Leikas pointed us to this published research article, “Exposure to inequality affects support for redistribution.” Leikas writes that “it seems to be a really apt example of “researcher degrees of freedom.'” Here’s the abstract of the paper: As the world’s population grows more urban, encounters between members of different socioeconomic groups occur with greater […] The post Some experiments are just too noisy to tell us much of anything…

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How to reduce Type M errors in exploratory research?

May 15, 2018
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Miao Yu writes: Recently, I found this piece [a news article by Janet Pelley, Sulfur dioxide pollution tied to degraded sperm quality, published in Chemical & Engineering News] and the original paper [Inverse Association between Ambient Sulfur Dioxide Exposure and Semen Quality in Wuhan, China, by Yuewei Liu, published in Environmental Science & Technology]. Air […] The post How to reduce Type M errors in exploratory research? appeared first on…

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Does “status threat” explain the 2016 presidential vote?

May 14, 2018
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Steve Morgan writes: The April 2018 article of Diana Mutz, Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains the 2016 Presidential Vote, was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and contradicts prior sociological research on the 2016 election. Mutz’s article received widespread media coverage because of the strength of its primary conclusion, declaimed […] The post Does “status threat” explain the 2016 presidential vote? appeared first on Statistical…

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“16 and Pregnant”

May 12, 2018
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Ted Joyce writes: In December 2015 the AER published an article, “Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing,” by Melissa Kearney and Phil Levine [KL]. The NBER working paper of this article appeared in January of 2014. It received huge media attention as the authors claimed the […] The post “16 and Pregnant” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Early p-hacking investments substantially boost adult publication record

April 29, 2018
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In a post with the title “Overstated findings, published in Science, on long-term health effects of a well-known early childhood program,” Perry Wilson writes: In this paper [“Early Childhood Investments Substantially Boost Adult Health,” by Frances Campbell, Gabriella Conti, James Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Elizabeth Pungello, and Yi Pan], published in Science in […] The post Early p-hacking investments substantially boost adult publication record appeared first on Statistical…

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“The Internal and External Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Meta-Analysis of 15 Within-Study-Comparisons”

April 4, 2018
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Jag Bhalla points to this post by Alex Tabarrok pointing to this paper, “The Internal and External Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Meta-Analysis of 15 Within-Study-Comparisons,” by Duncan Chaplin, Thomas Cook, Jelena Zurovac, Jared Coopersmith, Mariel Finucane, Lauren Vollmer, and Rebecca Morris, which reports that regression discontinuity (RD) estimation performed well in these […] The post “The Internal and External Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Meta-Analysis…

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Does adding women to corporate boards increase stock price?

April 3, 2018
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Anton Kasster writes: I recently came across a study which I think is quite questionable, even ridiculous. This study is unfortunately quite old (2012), but its conclusions are so ludicrous that the study is perhaps still interesting. The study claims that companies with women in their supervisory boards perform better than companies without a woman […] The post Does adding women to corporate boards increase stock price? appeared first on…

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Bayesian inference for A/B testing: Lauren Kennedy and I speak at the NYC Women in Machine Learning and Data Science meetup tomorrow (Tues 27 Mar) 7pm

March 26, 2018
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Here it is: Bayesian inference for A/B testing Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University Lauren Kennedy, Columbia Population Research Center, Columbia University Suppose we want to use empirical data to compare two or more decisions or treatment options. Classical statistical methods based on statistical significance and p-values break down […] The post Bayesian inference for A/B testing: Lauren Kennedy and I speak at the…

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Debate over claims of importance of spending on Obamacare advertising

March 25, 2018
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Jerrod Anderson points to this post by Paul Shafer, Erika Fowler, Laura Baum, and Sarah Gollust, “Advertising cutbacks reduce Marketplace information-seeking behavior: Lessons from Kentucky for 2018.” Anderson expresses skepticism about this claim. I’ll first summarize the claims of Shafer et al. and then get to Anderson’s criticism. Shafer et al. write: The Trump administration […] The post Debate over claims of importance of spending on Obamacare advertising appeared first…

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