Predictions The model I built to forecast the Argentine’s 2015 presidential election indicates the official candidate have a significant chance of making it right way this Sunday, avoiding a runoff with Mauricio Macri in November. The electoral prefe...
What if, instead of a normal, you got a paranormal distribution? In case you want to read an influential paper on this matter, you can find it here. library(ggplot2) library(gridExtra) theme_old <- theme(panel.grid.minor = element_blank(), ...
Last week, I delivered a talk at University of Brasilia about my past research on the topic of campaign finance. I didn’t know in advance about the existence of this seminar. Indeed, it was a big surprise receiving the invitation from Prof. Marcelo P...
Last week, I delivered a talk at University of Brasilia about my past research on the topic of campaign finance. I didn’t know in advance about the existence of this seminar. Indeed, it was a big surprise receiving the invitation from Prof. Marcelo P...
I got an email today inquiring if the margin of error reported in the newest poll by Datafolha would possibly be misleading. The polling firm often report surveys with regular sizes (1000/2400), so the margin of error calculated is in the range of +/-2...
I got an email today inquiring if the margin of error reported in the newest poll by Datafolha would possibly be misleading. The polling firm often report surveys with regular sizes (1000/2400), so the margin of error calculated is in the range of +/-2...
— layout: page subheadline: “Discussion” title: “Understanding Margins of Error for Small Populations” teaser: “A comment on why does a pollster reported a narrow margin of error despite the small sample.” date: 2015-10-13 09:00:00 categ...
I came across the butterfly curve, which was discovered by Temple Fay. The butterfly curve is produced by a parametric equation where: x = sin(t) * (e^cos(t)-2cos(λt)-sin(t/12)^5) and y = cos(t) * (e^cos(t)-2cos(λt)-sin(t/12)^5) . Where t stands for ...
I came across the butterfly curve, which was discovered by Temple Fay. The butterfly curve is produced by a parametric equation where: x = sin(t) * (e^cos(t)-2cos(λt)-sin(t/12)^5) and y = cos(t) * (e^cos(t)-2cos(λt)-sin(t/12)^5) . Where t stands for ...
I came across the claim in the US press suggesting that the taller the candidate, the better his/her chances for success in presidential elections. After a little search, I found this Wikipedia entry, and even some academic research on the issue, mainl...
