Author: Andrew

A parable regarding changing standards on the presentation of statistical evidence

Now, the P-value Sneetches Had tables with stars. The Bayesian Sneetches Had none upon thars. Those stars weren’t so big. They were really so small. You might think such a thing wouldn’t matter at all. But, because they had stars, all the P-value Sneetches Would brag, “We’re the best kind of Sneetch on the Beaches. […]

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Niall Ferguson and the perils of playing to your audience

History professor Niall Ferguson had another case of the sillies. Back in 2012, in response to Stephen Marche’s suggestion that Ferguson was serving up political hackery because “he has to please corporations and high-net-worth individuals, the people who can pay 50 to 75K to hear him talk,” I wrote: But I don’t think it’s just […]

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“Statistical insights into public opinion and politics” (my talk for the Columbia Data Science Society this Wed 9pm)

7pm in Fayerweather 310: Why is it more rational to vote than to answer surveys (but it used to be the other way around)? How does this explain why we should stop overreacting to swings in the polls? How does modern polling work? What are the factors that predict election outcomes? What’s good and bad […]

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Bayes, statistics, and reproducibility: “Many serious problems with statistics in practice arise from Bayesian inference that is not Bayesian enough, or frequentist evaluation that is not frequentist enough, in both cases using replication distributions that do not make scientific sense or do not reflect the actual procedures being performed on the data.”

This is an abstract I wrote for a talk I didn’t end up giving. (The conference conflicted with something else I had to do that week.) But I thought it might interest some of you, so here it is: Bayes, statistics, and reproducibility The two central ideas in the foundations of statistics—Bayesian inference and frequentist […]

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My talk tomorrow (Tues) noon at the Princeton University Psychology Department

Integrating collection, analysis, and interpretation of data in social and behavioral research Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University The replication crisis has made us increasingly aware of the flaws of conventional statistical reasoning based on hypothesis testing. The problem is not just a technical issue with p-values, not can […]

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In which I demonstrate my ignorance of world literature

Fred Buchanan, a student at Saint Anselm’s Abbey School, writes: I’m writing a paper on the influence of Jorge Luis Borges in academia, in particular his work “The Garden of Forking Paths”. I noticed that a large number of papers from a wide array of academic fields include references to this work. Your paper, “The […]

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“James Watson in his own words”

Here are some thoughts from the noted biologist and writer, collected by Lior Pachter.
I’d seen a few of these Watson quotes before, but it’s kinda stunning to see them all in one place. Apparently he recommends never adopting an Irish kid…

Stephen Wolfram explains neural nets

It’s easy to laugh at Stephen Wolfram, and I don’t like some of his business practices, but he’s an excellent writer and is full of interesting ideas. This long introduction to neural network prediction algorithms is an example. I have no idea if Wolfram wrote this book chapter himself or if he hired one of […]

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“And when you did you weren’t much use, you didn’t even know what a peptide was”

Last year we discussed the story of an article, “Variation in the β-endorphin, oxytocin, and dopamine receptor genes is associated with different dimensions of human sociality,” published in PNAS that, notoriously, misidentified what a peptide was, among other problems. Recently I learned of a letter published in PNAS by Patrick Jern, Karin Verweij, Fiona Barlow, […]

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