Author: Andrew

Prestigious journal publishes sexy selfie study

Stephen Oliver writes: Not really worth blogging about and a likely candidate for multiverse analysis, but the beginning of the first sentence in the 2nd paragraph made me laugh: In the study – published in prestigious journal PNAS . . . The researchers get extra points for this quote from the press release: The researchers […]

“How Sloppy Science Creates Worthless Cures, Crushes Hope, and Wastes Billions” . . . and still stays around even after it’s been retracted

Chuck Jackson points to two items of possible interest: Rigor Mortis: How Sloppy Science Creates Worthless Cures, Crushes Hope, and Wastes Billions, by Richard Harris. Review here by Leonard Freedman. Retractions do not work very well, by Ken Cor and Gaurav Sood. This post by Tyler Cowen brought this paper to my attention. Here’s a […]

Emile Bravo and agency

I was reading Tome 4 of the adventures of Jules (see the last item here), and it struck me how much agency the characters had. They seemed to be making their own decisions, saying what they wanted to say, etc. Just as a contrast, I’m also reading an old John Le Carre book, and here […]

Research topic on the geography of partisan prejudice (more generally, county-level estimates using MRP)

1. An estimate of the geography of partisan prejudice My colleagues David Rothschild and Tobi Konitzer recently published this MRP analysis, “The Geography of Partisan Prejudice: A guide to the most—and least—politically open-minded counties in America,” written up by Amanda Ripley, Rekha Tenjarla, and Angela He. Ripley et al. write: In general, the most politically […]

“Heckman curve” update: The data don’t seem to support the claim that human capital investments are most effective when targeted at younger ages.

David Rea and Tony Burton write: The Heckman Curve describes the rate of return to public investments in human capital for the disadvantaged as rapidly diminishing with age. Investments early in the life course are characterised as providing significantly higher rates of return compared to investments targeted at young people and adults. This paper uses […]

Treatment interactions can be hard to estimate from data.

Brendan Nyhan writes: Per #3 here, just want to make sure you saw the Coppock Leeper Mullinix paper indicating treatment effect heterogeneity is rare. My reply: I guess it depends on what is being studied. In the world of evolutionary psychology etc., interactions are typically claimed to be larger than main effects (for example, that […]

Some Stan and Bayes short courses!

Robert Grant writes: I have a couple of events coming up that people might be interested in. They are all at bayescamp.com/courses Stan Taster Webinar is on 15 May, runs for one hour and is only £15. I’ll demo Stan through R (and maybe PyStan and CmdStan if the interest is there on the day), […]

Impact of published research on behavior and avoidable fatalities

In a paper entitled, “Impact of published research on behavior and avoidable fatalities,” Addison Kramer, Alexandra Kirk, Faizaan Easton, and Bertram Hester write: There has long been speculation of an “informational backfire effect,” whereby the publication of questionable scientific claims can lead to behavioral changes that are counterproductive in the aggregate. Concerns of informational backfire […]

Another bit from Art Owen, this time dunking on ripoff publishers

From Owen’s review of Mayo’s book: Going through this put me in mind of Jim Zidek’s early 1980s work on multi-Bayesian theory. The most cited paper there is his JRSS-A paper with Weerahandri from 1981. From the abstract it looks more like it addresses formation of a consensus posterior or decision choice and is not […]

Here’s an idea for not getting tripped up with default priors . . .

I put this in the Prior Choice Recommendations wiki awhile ago: “The prior can often only be understood in the context of the likelihood”: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/entropy-19-00555-v2.pdf Here’s an idea for not getting tripped up with default priors: For each parameter (or other qoi), compare the posterior sd to the prior sd. If the posterior sd for […]

David Weakliem on the U.S. electoral college

The sociologist and public opinion researcher has a series of excellent posts here, here, and here on the electoral college. Here’s the start: The Electoral College has been in the news recently. I [Weakliem] am going to write a post about public opinion on the Electoral College vs. popular vote, but I was diverted into […]

An interview with Tina Fernandes Botts

Hey—this is cool! What happened was, I was scanning this list of Springbrook High School alumni. And I was like, Tina Fernandes? Class of 1982? I know that person. We didn’t know each other well, but I guess we must have been in the same homeroom a few times? All I can remember from back […]