Abstract: I present a probability puzzle, the Rain in Seattle Problem, and use it to explain differences between the Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of probability, and between Bayesian and frequentist statistical methods. Since I am try...

The president of Olin College, Rick Miller, spoke recently at the Business Innovation Factory. Here's the most-tweeted quote from the talk: "The only way to change education is to blow it up and start again."I agree, and I saw an example recently...

In response to my previous article on the Sleeping Beauty Problem, I got this comment from a reader:The late great philosopher David Lewis was a halfer. I'd be interested in any reactions to his paper on it: http://fitelson.org/probability/lewis_s...

This article uses object-oriented programming to explore of one of the most useful concepts in statistics, distributions. The code is in a Jupyter notebook.You can read a static version of the notebook on nbviewer.ORYou can run the code in a brow...

Yesterday Sanjoy Mahajan and I led a workshop on teaching Bayesian statistics for undergraduates. The participants were college teachers from around New England, including Norwich University in Vermont and Wesleyan University in Connecticut, as w...

In 2011 I wrote an article called "There is Only One Test", where I explained that all hypothesis tests are based on the same framework, which looks like this:Here are the elements of this framework:1) Given a dataset, you compute a test statistic that...

I did a webcast earlier today about Bayesian statistics. Some time in the next week, the video should be available from O'Reilly. In the meantime, you can see my slides here: And here's a transcript of what I said:Thanks everyone for joinin...

Today I am working on another "one-day paper", although this one is a bit of a cheat, since I'm a few hours past the deadline. Nevertheless, the question of the day is whether the Trivers-Willard effect applies to people.According to Wikipedia, t...

This is the fourth part of a series of posts about conditional probability and Bayesian statistics.In the first article, I presented the Red Dice problem, which is a warm-up problem that might help us make sense of the other problems.In the s...

This is the third part of a series of posts about conditional probability and Bayesian statistics.In the first article, I presented the Red Dice problem, which is a warm-up problem that might help us make sense of the other problems.In the second ...