One of the students in my Bayesian statistics class, Mafalda Borges, came up with an excellent new Bayes theorem problem. Here's my paraphrase:About 3/4 of orange cats are male. If my cat is orange, what is the probability that his mother w...

Last year I presented a paper called "Will Millennials Ever Get Married?" at SciPy 2015. You can see video of the talk and download the paper here.I used data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) to estimate the age at first marriage ...

Abstract: I present a probability puzzle, the Rain in Seattle Problem, and use it to explain differences between the Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of probability, and between Bayesian and frequentist statistical methods. Since I am try...

The president of Olin College, Rick Miller, spoke recently at the Business Innovation Factory. Here's the most-tweeted quote from the talk: "The only way to change education is to blow it up and start again."I agree, and I saw an example recently...

In response to my previous article on the Sleeping Beauty Problem, I got this comment from a reader:The late great philosopher David Lewis was a halfer. I'd be interested in any reactions to his paper on it: http://fitelson.org/probability/lewis_s...

This article uses object-oriented programming to explore of one of the most useful concepts in statistics, distributions. The code is in a Jupyter notebook.You can read a static version of the notebook on nbviewer.ORYou can run the code in a brow...

Yesterday Sanjoy Mahajan and I led a workshop on teaching Bayesian statistics for undergraduates. The participants were college teachers from around New England, including Norwich University in Vermont and Wesleyan University in Connecticut, as w...

In 2011 I wrote an article called "There is Only One Test", where I explained that all hypothesis tests are based on the same framework, which looks like this:Here are the elements of this framework:1) Given a dataset, you compute a test statistic that...

I did a webcast earlier today about Bayesian statistics. Some time in the next week, the video should be available from O'Reilly. In the meantime, you can see my slides here: And here's a transcript of what I said:Thanks everyone for joinin...

Today I am working on another "one-day paper", although this one is a bit of a cheat, since I'm a few hours past the deadline. Nevertheless, the question of the day is whether the Trivers-Willard effect applies to people.According to Wikipedia, t...