If you are pregnant with your first child, you might have heard that first babies are more likely to be late. This turns out to be true, but the difference is small, about 16 hours.Averaged across all live births, the mean duration of pregnancy f...

Last week a new study showed that many subjects diagnosed with non-celiac gluten sensitivity (NCGS) were not able to distinguish gluten flour from non-gluten flour in a blind challenge.In this article, I review the the study and use a simple Bayesian m...

I had a chance to practice Bayesian inference in real life today: at 1pm my wife called to tell me that the carbon monoxide (CO) alarm at the house was going off. Immediately two hypotheses came to mind: (1) there is a dangerous amount of CO in m...

The following is a draft of an article I have submitted for publication in CHANCE Magazine, a publication of the American Statistical Association. With their encouragement, I am publishing it here to solicit comments from readers (and possibly correct...

I've been reading Piper Kerman's Orange Is the New Black, a memoir by a woman who served 11 months in a federal prison. One of the recurring themes is the author's surprise at the length of the sentences her fellow prisoners are serving, esp...

At SciPy last week I gave a talk called "Will Millennials Ever Get Married? Survival Analysis and Marriage Data". I presented results from my analysis of data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). The slides I presented ar...

I recently watched a video of Jake VanderPlas explaining Bayesian statistics at SciPy 2014. It's an excellent talk that includes some nice examples. In fact, it looks like he had even more examples he didn't have time to present.Althou...

How did I get to my ripe old age without hearing about The Sleeping Beauty Problem? I've taught and written about The Monty Hall Problem and The Girl Named Florida Problem. But I didn't hear about Sleeping Beauty until this reddit post, poi...

UPDATE May 4: Nature recently reported the outcome of an attempt to replicate 100 results from psychology research. They characterize the findings as "worrying." In my previous article I argued that classical statistical inference is only mostly wron...

Last fall I taught an introduction to Bayesian statistics at Olin College. My students worked on some excellent projects, and I invited them to write up their results as guest articles for this blog. Previous articles in the series are:Baye...