This is the second of two articles about Bayesian analysis applied to World Cup soccer. The previous article is here.Earlier this semester I posed this problem to my Bayesian statistics class at Olin College:In the final match of t...

Earlier this semester I posed this problem to my Bayesian statistics class at Olin College:In the 2014 FIFA World Cup, Germany played Brazil in a semifinal match. Germany scored after 11 minutes and again at the 23 minute mark. At that point in th...

IntroductionIn many recent books, the goddamn endnotes are numbered sequentially within each chapter, but chapter numbers seldom appear in the header on each page. So a reader who wants to find a goddamn endnote typically has to search backward t...

Today Dennis Kimetto ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:02:57, shaving 26 seconds off the previous world record. That means it's time to check in on the world record progression and update my update from last year of my article from two year...

Last week Nate Silver posted this article explaining how the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast model works. If you are familiar with Silver's work, you probably know that (1) he has been notably successful at predicting outcomes of elections, and (...

I was at Boston Data-Con 2014 this morning, which was a great event. The organizer, John Verostek, seems to have created this three-day event single-handedly, so I am hugely impressed.Imran Malek started the day with a very nice iPython tutorial....

According to an exciting new study, childhood vaccines are almost miraculously effective at preventing suffering and death due to infectious disease.Sadly, that is not actually a headline, because it doesn't generate clicks. What does generate cl...

I've just turned in the manuscript for the second edition of Think Stats. If you're dying to get your hands on a copy, you can pre-order one here.Most of the book is about computational methods, but in the last chapter I break out some analytic m...

I am working on the second edition of Think Stats, adding chapters on some topics that didn't make it into the first edition, including survival analysis. Here is the draft of the new chapter; this post contains some of the highlights.Survival an...

Last year my occasional correspondent John D. Cook wrote an excellent blog post about the Lincoln index, which is a way to estimate the number of errors in a document (or program) by comparing results from two independent testers. Here's his pres...