Blog Archives

Bayes theorem in real life

August 27, 2015
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Bayes theorem in real life

I had a chance to practice Bayesian inference in real life today: at 1pm my wife called to tell me that the carbon monoxide (CO) alarm at the house was going off.  Immediately two hypotheses came to mind: (1) there is a dangerous amount of CO in m...

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The Inspection Paradox is Everywhere

August 18, 2015
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The Inspection Paradox is Everywhere

The following is a draft of an article I have submitted for publication in CHANCE Magazine, a publication of the American Statistical Association. With their encouragement, I am publishing it here to solicit comments from readers (and possibly correct...

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Orange is the new stat

August 4, 2015
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Orange is the new stat

I've been reading Piper Kerman's Orange Is the New Black, a memoir by a woman who served 11 months in a federal prison.  One of the recurring themes is the author's surprise at the length of the sentences her fellow prisoners are serving, esp...

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Will Millennials Ever Get Married?

July 13, 2015
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Will Millennials Ever Get Married?

At SciPy last week I gave a talk called "Will Millennials Ever Get Married?  Survival Analysis and Marriage Data".  I presented results from my analysis of data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG).  The slides I presented ar...

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Bayesian Billiards

June 25, 2015
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Bayesian Billiards

I recently watched a video of Jake VanderPlas explaining Bayesian statistics at SciPy 2104.  It's an excellent talk that includes some nice examples.  In fact, it looks like he had even more examples he didn't have time to present.Althou...

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The Sleeping Beauty Problem

June 12, 2015
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The Sleeping Beauty Problem

How did I get to my ripe old age without hearing about The Sleeping Beauty Problem?  I've taught and written about The Monty Hall Problem and The Girl Named Florida Problem.  But I didn't hear about Sleeping Beauty until this reddit post, poi...

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Hypothesis testing is only mostly useless

May 1, 2015
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Hypothesis testing is only mostly useless

UPDATE May 4: Nature recently reported the outcome of an attempt to replicate 100 results from psychology research. They characterize the findings as "worrying." In my previous article I argued that classical statistical inference is only mostly wron...

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Two hour marathon by 2041 — probably

April 15, 2015
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Two hour marathon by 2041 — probably

Last fall I taught an introduction to Bayesian statistics at Olin College.  My students worked on some excellent projects, and I invited them to write up their results as guest articles for this blog.  Previous articles in the series are:Baye...

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Bayesian survival analysis for "Game of Thrones"

March 25, 2015
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Bayesian survival analysis for "Game of Thrones"

Last fall I taught an introduction to Bayesian statistics at Olin College.  My students worked on some excellent projects, and I invited them to write up their results as guest articles for this blog.One of the teams applied Bayesian survival anal...

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Statistical inference is only mostly wrong

March 2, 2015
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Statistical inference is only mostly wrong

p-values banned!The journal Basic and Applied Social Psychology (BASP) made news recently by "banning" p-values.  Here's a summary of their major points:"...the null hypothesis significance testing procedure (NHSTP) is invalid...". &nbsp...

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