Blog Archives

The World Cup Problem Part 2: Germany v. Argentina

November 25, 2014
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The World Cup Problem Part 2: Germany v. Argentina

This is the second of two articles about Bayesian analysis applied to World Cup soccer.  The previous article is here.Earlier this semester I posed this problem to my Bayesian statistics class at Olin College:In the final match of t...

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The World Cup Problem: Germany v. Brazil

November 18, 2014
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The World Cup Problem: Germany v. Brazil

Earlier this semester I posed this problem to my Bayesian statistics class at Olin College:In the 2014 FIFA World Cup, Germany played Brazil in a semifinal match. Germany scored after 11 minutes and again at the 23 minute mark. At that point in th...

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On efficient algorithms for finding the goddamn endnotes

October 4, 2014
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On efficient algorithms for finding the goddamn endnotes

IntroductionIn many recent books, the goddamn endnotes are numbered sequentially within each chapter, but chapter numbers seldom appear in the header on each page.  So a reader who wants to find a goddamn endnote typically has to search backward t...

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Two hour marathon in 2041

September 30, 2014
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Two hour marathon in 2041

Today Dennis Kimetto ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:02:57, shaving 26 seconds off the previous world record.  That means it's time to check in on the world record progression and update my update from last year of  my article from two year...

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Bayesian election forecasting

September 25, 2014
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Bayesian election forecasting

Last week Nate Silver posted this article explaining how the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast model works.  If you are familiar with Silver's work, you probably know that (1) he has been notably successful at predicting outcomes of elections, and (...

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Regression with Python, pandas and StatsModels

September 14, 2014
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Regression with Python, pandas and StatsModels

I was at Boston Data-Con 2014 this morning, which was a great event.  The organizer, John Verostek, seems to have created this three-day event single-handedly, so I am hugely impressed.Imran Malek started the day with a very nice iPython tutorial....

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New study: vaccines prevent disease and death

August 29, 2014
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New study: vaccines prevent disease and death

According to an exciting new study, childhood vaccines are almost miraculously effective at preventing suffering and death due to infectious disease.Sadly, that is not actually a headline, because it doesn't generate clicks.  What does generate cl...

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An exercise in hypothesis testing

August 22, 2014
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An exercise in hypothesis testing

I've just turned in the manuscript for the second edition of Think Stats.  If you're dying to get your hands on a copy, you can pre-order one here.Most of the book is about computational methods, but in the last chapter I break out some analytic m...

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More likely to be killed by a terrorist

July 18, 2014
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More likely to be killed by a terrorist

I am working on the second edition of Think Stats, adding chapters on some topics that didn't make it into the first edition, including survival analysis.  Here is the draft of the new chapter; this post contains some of the highlights.Survival an...

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Bayesian solution to the Lincoln index problem

July 10, 2014
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Bayesian solution to the Lincoln index problem

Last year my occasional correspondent John D. Cook wrote an excellent blog post about the Lincoln index, which is a way to estimate the number of errors in a document (or program) by comparing results from two independent testers.  Here's his pres...

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