Theoretically, people should not be surprised by the results of the 2016 election; several credible forecasters predicted that it would be a close race. But a lot of people were surprised anyway. In my previous article I explained one reaso...

Last week I posted the Alien Blaster Problem:In preparation for an alien invasion, the Earth Defense League has been working on new missiles to shoot down space invaders. Of course, some missile designs are better than others; let's assume that each design has some probability of hitting an alien ship, x.Based on previous tests, the distribution of x in the population of designs is roughly uniform between 10% and 40%.…

In my Bayesian statistics class this semester, I asked students to invent new Bayes theorem problems, with the following criteria:1) A good Bayes's theorem problem should pose an interesting question that seems hard to solve directly, but2) It should be easier to solve with Bayes's theorem than without it, and3) It should have some element of surprise, or at least a non-obvious outcome.Several years ago I posted some of my…