Posts Tagged ‘ Significance ’

Gelman digested read

August 16, 2017
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It's hard to keep up with Andrew Gelman, so let me point to some interesting recent posts from his blog. Readings on philosophy of statistics (link): Andrew has a bunch of links of (mostly his own) writings about deep statistical issues. Science is about understanding how the world works, which involves questions of cause and effect, and randomness and unexplained variability. Data that can be observed are almost never sufficient…

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If you are using Facebook Ads split testing (A/B testing), stop fooling yourself

July 26, 2017
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Kaiser Fung, founder of Principal Analytics Prep, and former director of Applied Analytics at Columbia University, explains why you can't run proper A/B tests on Facebook

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Dispute over analysis of school quality and home prices shows social science is hard

April 24, 2017
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Dispute over analysis of school quality and home prices shows social science is hard

Most of my friends with families fret over school quality when deciding where to buy their homes. It's well known that good school districts are also associated with expensive houses. A feedback cycle is at work here: home prices surge where there are good schools; only richer people can afford to buy such homes; wealth brings other advantages, and so the schools tend to have better students, which leads to…

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My pre-existing United boycott, and some musing on randomness and fairness

April 12, 2017
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You probably already saw the video - if not, do yourself a favor, and search for "man forcibly removed from overbooked United flight." Other than the video evidence, which is damning, we don't have many facts, other than assertions made by various parties, repeated endlessly on social media and mainline media. Some facts, such as the United CEO claiming the passenger was "belligerent," is an assault on the meaning of…

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sigr: Simple Significance Reporting

March 7, 2017
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sigr: Simple Significance Reporting

sigr is a simple R package that conveniently formats a few statistics and their significance tests. This allows the analyst to use the correct test no matter what modeling package or procedure they use. Model Example Let’s take as our example the following linear relation between x and y: library('sigr') set.seed(353525) d <- data.frame(x= rnorm(5)) … Continue reading sigr: Simple Significance Reporting

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Be careful evaluating model predictions

December 3, 2016
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Be careful evaluating model predictions

One thing I teach is: when evaluating the performance of regression models you should not use correlation as your score. This is because correlation tells you if a re-scaling of your result is useful, but you want to know if the result in your hand is in fact useful. For example: the Mars Climate Orbiter … Continue reading Be careful evaluating model predictions

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This election forecasting business

November 15, 2016
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This election forecasting business

If you live in the States, and particularly a blue state, in the last year or two, it has been drilled into your head that Hillary Clinton was the overwhelming favorite to win the Presidential election. On the day before the election, when all the major media outlets finalized their "election forecasting models," they unanimously pronounced Clinton the clear winner, with a probability of winning of 70% to 99%. One…

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Reader’s Guide to the Power Pose Controversy 3

November 2, 2016
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This is the third and final post about the controversy over statistical analysis used in peer-reviewed published scholarly research. Most of the new stuff are covered in post #2 (link). Today's post covers statistical issues related to sample size, which is nothing new, but it was mentioned in Amy Cuddy's response to her critics and thus I also discuss it here. In post #2 (link), I offer the following mental…

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Reader’s guide to the power pose controversy 2

October 21, 2016
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Yesterday, I started a series of posts covering the "power pose" research controversy. The plan is as follows: Key Idea 1: Peer Review, Manuscripts, Pop Science and TED Talks Key Idea 2: P < 0.05, P-hacking, Replication Studies, Pre-registration Key Idea 3: Negative Studies, and the File Drawer (Today) Key Idea 4: Degrees of Freedom, and the Garden of Forking Paths Key Idea 5: Sample Size Here is a quick…

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Reader’s guide to the power pose controversy 1

October 20, 2016
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I recently covered the power pose research controversy, ignited by an inflammatory letter by Susan Fiske (link). Dana Carney, one of the coauthors of the original power pose study, courageously came forward to disown the research, and explained the reasons why she no longer trusts the result. Here is her mea culpa. Her co-author, Amy Cuddy, then went to New York Magazine to publish her own corrective, claiming that the…

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