[Sorry for being AWOL. Like everyone else, I'm generally three feet underwater and breathing through a straw, but in March and April it seems that even the straw goes under. Anyway, lots of stuff in the pipeline, so let's try to get going a...
[Sorry for being AWOL. Like everyone else, I'm generally three feet underwater and breathing through a straw, but in March and April it seems that even the straw goes under. Anyway, lots of stuff in the pipeline, so let's try to get going a...
A gratis copy of Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner's new book, Superforecasting, arrived a couple months ago, just before it was published. It's been sitting on my desk until now. With a title like "Superforcasting," perhaps I subconsciously thought ...
Check it out here. It's thorough and informative. It's interesting and unfortunate that even the Bank of England, the great "fan chart pioneer," produces density forecasts for only three of eleven variables forecasted (p. 15). In my view, the mos...
A notice about this paper just arrived. Climate Engineering EconomicsGarth Heutel, Juan Moreno-Cruz, Katharine RickeNBER Working Paper No. 21711Issued in November 2015NBER Program(s): EEE Very cool, I thought. So I clic...
We've all ranked forecast accuracy by mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), the two great workhorses of relative accuracy comparison. MSE-rankings and MAE-rankings often agree, but they certainly don't have to -- they're simply differ...
