Clinton’s Lack of Public Support Made up by Super-PACs

March 6, 2016
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Clinton’s Lack of Public Support Made up by Super-PACs

Hillary Clinton, with only $30 million raised in February far below the $43 million raised by her rival Bernie Sanders, Clinton is falling desperately short of public backing.Fortunately, she has friends in high places. These friends are increasing the...

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Replication crisis crisis: Why I continue in my “pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility”

March 5, 2016
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Replication crisis crisis:  Why I continue in my “pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility”

A couple days we again discussed the replication crisis in psychology—the problem that all sorts of ridiculous studies on topics such as political moderation and shades of gray, or power pose, or fat arms and political attitudes, or ovulation and vote preference, or ovulation and clothing, or beauty and sex ratios, or elderly-related words and […] The post Replication crisis crisis: Why I continue in my “pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility”…

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“The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics”

March 5, 2016
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“The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics”

Someone pointed me to this paper (by Anthony Bartolotta, Sean Carroll, Stefan Leichenauer, and Jason Pollack) and asked me what I thought. I didn’t have the time to look into it in any detail, but based on the title it seemed a bit Jaynesian. I sent it to a statistician and former physicist, who wrote: […] The post “The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Prediction: 64% Sanders Wins Majority of Pledged Deligates

March 5, 2016
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Prediction: 64% Sanders Wins Majority of Pledged Deligates

There are many ways so predict the future. All of them have a fair degree of uncertainty. Nate Silver at FiveThityEight uses a measure of ethnicity and political leanings to predict how well Sanders will do in different states. This seems like a sound method to me though it is not the only way to make predictions.For the last month I have been playing with campaign contributions data and have…

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Repligate Returns (or, the non-significance of non-significant results, are the new significant results)

March 4, 2016
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Repligate Returns (or, the non-significance of non-significant results, are the new significant results)

Remember “Repligate”? [“Some Ironies in the Replication Crisis in Social Psychology“] and, more recently, the much publicized attempt to replicate 100 published psychology articles by the Open Science Collaboration (OSC) [“The Paradox of Replication“]? Well, some of the critics involved in Repligate have just come out with a criticism of the OSC results, claiming they’re […]

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A quick Bayes problem in IPython

March 4, 2016
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A quick Bayes problem in IPython

I've been busy with other projects, so I haven't posted anything new for a while.  But a reader posted a nice Bayes's theorem problem, which I am using as an excuse to experiment with embedding an IPython/Jupyter notebook in a blog, following these instructions. Let's see how it goes... The following problem was submitted to my blog, Probably Overthinking It, by a user named Amit, who wrote:The following data is…

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Creationist article Article with creationist language published in Plos-One

March 4, 2016
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Creationist article Article with creationist language published in Plos-One

Dan Gianola pointed me to this one. It’s an article by Ming-Jin Liu, Cai-Hua Xiong, Le Xiong, and Xiao-Lin Huang with the innocuous title, “Biomechanical Characteristics of Hand Coordination in Grasping Activities of Daily Living,” and a boring abstract: Hand coordination can allow humans to have dexterous control with many degrees of freedom to perform […] The post Creationist article Article with creationist language published in Plos-One appeared first on…

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Model variance for ARIMA models

Model variance for ARIMA models

From today’s email: I wanted to ask you about your R forecast package, in particular the Arima() function. We are using this function to fit an ARIMAX model and produce model estimates and standard errors, which in turn can be used to get p-valu...

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Continuum between anecdote and data

March 4, 2016
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Continuum between anecdote and data

The difference between anecdotal evidence and data is overstated. People often have in mind this dividing line where observations on one side are worthless and observations on the other side are trustworthy. But there’s no such dividing line. Observations are data, but some observations are more valuable than others, and there’s a continuum of value. I believe […]

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Semi-finished

March 3, 2016
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Semi-finished

I've finally managed to have a reasonably functional release for SWSamp, my package for simulation-based sample size calculations, specifically (but not necessarily just!) for a Stepped Wedge design trial. There are still a few details that we need to ...

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More on replication crisis

March 3, 2016
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More on replication crisis

The replication crisis in social psychology (and science more generally) will not be solved by better statistics or by preregistered replications. It can only be solved by better measurement. Let me say this more carefully. I think that improved statistics and preregistered replications will have very little direct effect on improving psychological science, but they […] The post More on replication crisis appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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At this point, even Tom Cruise is skeptical about claims of social priming. (Click to find out why)

March 3, 2016
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At this point, even Tom Cruise is skeptical about claims of social priming. (Click to find out why)

The blogger known as Neuroskeptic writes: Can the thought of money make people more conservative? The idea that mere reminders of money can influence people’s attitudes and behaviors is a major claim within the field of social priming – the study of how our behavior is unconsciously influenced by seemingly innocuous stimuli. However, social priming […] The post At this point, even Tom Cruise is skeptical about claims of social…

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How do I re-arrange??: Ordering a plot re-revisited

March 3, 2016
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How do I re-arrange??: Ordering a plot re-revisited

Several years back I wrote a two part blog series in response to seeing questions about plotting and reordering on list serves, talkstats.com, and stackoverflow.  Part I discussed the basics of reordering plots by reordering factor levels.  The essential gist was: … Continue reading →

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Georgetown Center for Econometric Practice

March 3, 2016
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Georgetown Center for Econometric Practice

Check out the Georgetown Center for Econometric Practice (GCEP).  Web page here.  Facebook page here.  Screenshot below.GEORGETOWN CENTER FOR ECONOMETRIC PRACTICE (GCEP)GCEP MISSIONUPCOMING COURSESUPCOMING MASTERCLASSESUPCOMING SEMINARSC...

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What parts of the country are most religious?

March 2, 2016
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What parts of the country are most religious?

I saw this from Tyler Cowen: The middle part of America is more religious than the South. And I was like, Huh? So I followed the link which in turn linked to this article by J. D. Vance which said: When Gallup ranked every U.S. state by its religiosity, states in the South took nine […] The post What parts of the country are most religious? appeared first on Statistical…

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"To Pie or Not To Pie" That is the question! Graph theory

March 2, 2016
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"To Pie or Not To Pie" That is the question! Graph theory

In several recent posts I have attempted to convey the nature of how the current primary season is funded (on the Democratic side). In order to assist in conveying this information I have employed several different analytical angles and graphical strat...

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Win-Vector video courses: price/status changes

March 2, 2016
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Win-Vector LLC has been offering a couple of online video courses on the topics of data science and A/B testing (both using R). These are high quality courses and well worth the money and time needed to work through them closely (with all materials distributed on GitHub). Our current distributor is Udemy, which has just … Continue reading Win-Vector video courses: price/status changes

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No, this post is not 30 days early: Psychological Science backs away from null hypothesis significance testing

March 2, 2016
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No, this post is not 30 days early:  Psychological Science backs away from null hypothesis significance testing

A few people pointed me to this editorial by D. Stephen Lindsay, the new editor of Psychological Science, a journal that in recent years has been notorious for publishing (and, even more notoriously, promoting) click-bait unreplicable dead-on-arrival noise-mining tea-leaf-reading research papers. It was getting so bad for awhile that they’d be publishing multiple such studies […] The post No, this post is not 30 days early: Psychological Science backs away…

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Dummy variables in SAS/IML

March 2, 2016
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Dummy variables in SAS/IML

Last week I showed how to create dummy variables in SAS by using the GLMMOD procedure. The procedure enables you to create design matrices that encode continuous variables, categorical variables, and their interactions. You can use dummy variables to replace categorical variables in procedures that do not support a CLASS […] The post Dummy variables in SAS/IML appeared first on The DO Loop.

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He’s looking for a textbook that explains Bayesian methods for non-parametric tests

March 2, 2016
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He’s looking for a textbook that explains Bayesian methods for non-parametric tests

Brandon Vaughan writes: I am in the market for a textbook that explains Bayesian methods for non-parametric tests. My experience with Bayesian statistics thus far comes from John Krushke’s Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, but this book excludes non-parametric statistics. I do see that your text, Bayesian Data Analysis 3e, covers non-parametric statistics, however, does it […] The post He’s looking for a textbook that explains Bayesian methods for non-parametric tests…

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Not So Standard Deviations Episode 10 – It’s All Counterexamples

March 2, 2016
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In the latest episode of Not So Standard Deviations Hilary and I talk about the motivation behind the explainr package and the general usefulness of automated reporting and interpretation of statistical tests. Also, Roger struggles to come up with a qu...

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FALSE: Clinton Funded by "Grassroots"

March 1, 2016
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FALSE: Clinton Funded by "Grassroots"

The blatant distortions of reality put forth by the Clinton campaign are so offensive as to be laughable at times. In the victory speech of Hillary Clinton in South Carolina she spent a significant portion of it talking about how her campaign is financ...

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Yes, Science *Does* Advance One Funeral at a Time

March 1, 2016
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Yes, Science *Does* Advance One Funeral at a Time

Fascinating research, as reported in the March 2016 NBER Reporter:Does Science Advance One Funeral at a Time? When a star scientist dies, outsiders often tackle mainstream questions in the field by leveraging new ideas that arise in other domains....

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