My friend Rhonda D. wins a prize for submitting a good chart. This is Bloomberg's take on the current Supreme Court case on gay marriage (link). Their designer places this movement in the context of prior social movements such as...

The following papers have been nominated for the best paper published in the International Journal of Forecasting in 2012–2013. I have included an excerpt from the nomination in each case. The papers in bold have been short-listed for the award, and the editorial board are currently voting on them. Bellotti, T., & Crook, J. (2012). […]

I do a lot of criticism. I’m sure you can think of lots of things that I like to criticize, but to keep things simple, let’s focus on graphics criticism, for example this post where I criticized a graph for false parallelism. At this point some people would say that graphics criticism is mean, and […] The post In criticism of criticism of criticism appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Harvard Business Review devotes a long article to customer data privacy in the May issue (link). The article raises important issues, such as the low degree of knowledge about what data are being collected and traded, the value people place on their data privacy, and so on. In a separate post, I will discuss why I don't think the recommendations issued by the authors will resolve the issues they raised.…

Last week I attended SAS Global Forum 2015 in Dallas. It was packed with almost 5,000 attendees. I learned many interesting things at the conference, including the fact that you need to arrive EARLY to the statistical presentations if you want to find an empty seat! It was gratifying to […] The post Matrix computations at SAS Global Forum 2015 appeared first on The DO Loop.

Attention conservation notice: If you'd care about these links, you've probably seen them already. I have been very much distracted from blogging by teaching undergraduates (last semester; this semester), by supervising graduate students, and by Li...

“Moreover, IvD point out an error in Nobile’s derivation which can alter its stationary distribution. Ironically, as we shall see, the algorithms of IvD also contain an error.” Xiyun Jiao and David A. van Dyk arXived a paper correcting an MCMC sampler and R package MNP for the multivariate probit model, proposed by Imai and […]

Adrian Torchiana writes: I recently created a little probability puzzle app for android, and I was wondering whether you have any suggestions for puzzles that are engaging, approachable to someone who hasn’t taken a probability course, and don’t involve coins or dice. I think my easy puzzles are easy enough, but I’m having trouble thinking […] The post He’s looking for probability puzzles appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

These days, there are so many dubious assertions about alleged correlations between two variables that an entire website: Spurious Correlation (Tyler Vigen) is devoted to exposing (and creating*) them! A classic problem is that the means of variables X and Y may both be trending in the order data are observed, invalidating the assumption that […]

A colleague pointed me to a recent paper, “Does Regression Produce Representative Estimates of Causal Effects?” by Peter Aronow and Cyrus Samii, which begins: With an unrepresentative sample, the estimate of a causal effect may fail to characterize how effects operate in the population of interest. What is less well understood is that conventional estimation […] The post A causal-inference version of a statistics problem: If you fit a regression…

Mon: A causal-inference version of a statistics problem: If you fit a regression model with interactions, and the underlying process has an interaction, your coefficients won’t be directly interpretable. Tues: He’s looking for probability puzzles Wed: In criticism of criticism of criticism Thurs: A question about physics-types models for flows in economics Fri: What I […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

A friend writes the following. (I have edited very slightly for clarity.)Based on forecasts you've seen, what would you say is a "reasonable" ratio of the standard deviation of the forecast error to the standard deviation of a covariance-stationa...

A causal-inference version of a statistics problem: If you fit a regression model with interactions, and the underlying process has an interaction, your coefficients won’t be directly interpretable. He’s looking for probability puzzles In criticism of criticism of criticism A question about physics-types models for flows in economics What I got wrong (and right) about […] The post On deck this month appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Did you know that if you have set multiple titles in SAS, that there is an easy way to remove them? For example, suppose that you've written the following statements, which call the TITLE statement to set three titles: title "A Great Big Papa Title"; title2 "A Medium-sized Mama Title"; […] The post An easy way to clear your SAS titles appeared first on The DO Loop.

Paul Ginsparg, professor of physics at Cornell University and inventor of Arxiv, is speaking Tuesday 5 May, 4pm in CEPSR 750. Here’s the abstract: I [Ginsparg] will give a very brief sociological overview of the current metastable state of scholarly research communication, and then a technical discussion of the practical implications of literature and usage […] The post Inventor of Arxiv speaks at Columbia this Tues 4pm appeared first on…

Mark Palko points me to this webpage which presents a recent research paper by Joanna Shepherd and Michael Kang. I have no comment on the research—I haven’t had a chance to read the paper—but I wanted to express how impressed I was about the presentation. It starts with a dedicated url just for this paper […] The post Forget about pdf: this looks much better, it makes all my own…