The Access to Justice Lab at Harvard Law School: Job Openings!

May 10, 2016
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Jim Greiner writes: The Access to Justice Lab is a startup effort, initially supported by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation with sufficient funds for three years, headed by Jim Greiner at Harvard Law School. The Lab will produce randomized control trials (“RCTs”) directly involving courts and lawyers, particularly in the areas of access to […] The post The Access to Justice Lab at Harvard Law School: Job Openings! appeared…

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A means not an end – building a social media presence as a junior scientist

May 10, 2016
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Editor’s note - This is a chapter from my book How to be a modern scientist where I talk about some of the tools and techniques that scientists have available to them now that they didn’t before. 50% of all royalties from the book go to support Dat...

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The Mad Hatter Explains Support Vector Machines

May 9, 2016
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The Mad Hatter Explains Support Vector Machines

"Hatter?" asked Alice, "Why are support vector machines so hard to understand?" Suddenly, before you can ask yourself why Alice is studying machine learning in the middle of the 19th century, the Hatter disappeared. "Where did he go?" thought Alice as ...

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The Mad Hatter Explains Support Vector Machines

May 9, 2016
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The Mad Hatter Explains Support Vector Machines

"Hatter?" asked Alice, "Why are support vector machines so hard to understand?" Suddenly, before you can ask yourself why Alice is studying machine learning in the middle of the 19th century, the Hatter disappeared. "Where did he go?" thought Alice as ...

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Bill James does model checking

May 9, 2016
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Bill James does model checking

Regular readers will know that Bill James was one of my inspirations for becoming a statistician. I happened to be browsing through the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract the other day and came across this passage on Glenn Hubbard, who he ranks as the 88th best second baseman of all time: Total Baseball has Glenn […] The post Bill James does model checking appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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On the Origin of "Forecasts"

May 9, 2016
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The word forecasts, that is. From the BBC Magazine, http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32483678:One hundred and fifty years ago Admiral Robert FitzRoy, the celebrated sailor and founder of the Met Office, took his own life. One newspaper reported the ne...

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Dreadful analysis shows the importance of numbersense

May 9, 2016
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Last year, Gizmodo capitalized on the fallout from the Ashley Madison hacking scandal and published a sensational article claiming the website that, if you haven't heard, promotes adultery, has "almost no" real women on it. The subtext is that millions of gullible, disloyal males were paying monthly fees to the website to do nothing or, cue the laugh track, to converse with "badly-designed robots." These men, according to Gizmodo, were…

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Dreadful analysis shows the importance of numbersense

May 9, 2016
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Last year, Gizmodo capitalized on the fallout from the Ashley Madison hacking scandal and published a sensational article claiming the website that, if you haven't heard, promotes adultery, has "almost no" real women on it. The subtext is that millions of gullible, disloyal males were paying monthly fees to the website to do nothing or, cue the laugh track, to converse with "badly-designed robots." These men, according to Gizmodo, were…

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Probability is hard: part three

May 9, 2016
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Probability is hard: part three

This is the third part of a series of posts about conditional probability and Bayesian statistics.In the first article, I presented the Red Dice problem, which is a warm-up problem that might help us make sense of the other problems.In the second ...

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On deck this week

May 9, 2016
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Mon: Bill James does model checking Tues: What’s the motivation to do experiments on motivation? Wed: Happy talk, meet the Edlin factor Thurs: FDA approval of generic drugs: The untold story Fri: Acupuncture paradox update Sat: Point summary of...

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How to be Bayesian and spare yourself a dreadful afternoon with your stupid football team losing the derby

May 9, 2016
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How to be Bayesian and spare yourself a dreadful afternoon with your stupid football team losing the derby

Yesterday was the second-last game of the Italian Serie A; I've been a Sampdoria supported since I was 12 $-$ at that time, they were starting to become one of the best clubs in Serie A (and that was back in the 80's when Serie A was arguably the best ...

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What is a DATA step view and why is it important?

May 9, 2016
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What is a DATA step view and why is it important?

Last week I analyzed 12 million records of taxi cab transactions in New York City. As part of that analysis, I used a DATA step view to create a new variable, which was the ratio of the tip amount to the fare amount. A novice SAS programmer told me that […] The post What is a DATA step view and why is it important? appeared first on The DO Loop.

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forecast v7 and ggplot2 graphics

forecast v7 and ggplot2 graphics

Version 7 of the forecast package was released on CRAN about a month ago, but I’m only just getting around to posting about the new features. The most visible feature was the introduction of ggplot2 graphics. I first wrote the forecast package before...

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There’s more to reading graphs than meets the eye

May 9, 2016
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There’s more to reading graphs than meets the eye

There’s more to reading graphs than meets the eye For those of us who know how to read a graph, it can be difficult to imagine what another person could find difficult. But then when I am presented with an … Continue reading →

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Econometric Computing in the Good Ol’ Days

May 9, 2016
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Econometric Computing in the Good Ol’ Days

I received an email from Michael Belongia, who said:"I wrote earlier in response to your post about Almon lags but forgot to include an anecdote that may be of interest to your follow-up.In the late 1960s, the "St. Louis Equation"  became a standa...

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Safe Assets

May 9, 2016
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Gary Gorton has a fascinating new paper, "History and Economics of Safe Assets", which contains the quote of the week: "...almost all of human history can be written as the search for and the production of different forms of safe assets".  No...

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Math on a plane!

May 8, 2016
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Math on a plane!

Paul Alper pointed me to this news article about an economist who got BUSTED for doing algebra on the plane. This dude was profiled by the lady sitting next to him who got suspicious of his incomprehensible formulas. I feel that way about a lot of econ research too, so I can see where she […] The post Math on a plane! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Drive-by

May 8, 2016
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Jona Sassenhagen writes: Here is a paper ***, in case you, errrrr, have run out of other things to blog about … I took a look and replied: Wow—what a horrible paper. Really ignorant. Probably best for me to just ignore it! The post Drive-...

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Coming up: principal components analysis

May 7, 2016
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Coming up: principal components analysis

Just a “heads-up.” I’ve been editing a two-part three-part series Nina Zumel is writing on some of the pitfalls of improperly applied principal components analysis/regression and how to avoid them (we are using the plural spelling as used in following Everitt The Cambridge Dictionary of Statistics). The series is looking absolutely fantastic and I think … Continue reading Coming up: principal components analysis

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Doing data science

May 7, 2016
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Someone sent me this question: As a social and political science expert, you analyze data related to everything from public health and clinical research to college football. Considering how adaptable analytics expertise is, what kinds of careers available to one with this skillset? In which industries are data scientists and analysts in particularly demand? What […] The post Doing data science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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May Reading List

May 6, 2016
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May Reading List

Here's my reading list for May:Hayakawa, K., 2016. Unit root tests for short panels with serially correlated errors. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, in press.Hendry, D. F. and G. E. Mizon, 2016. Improving the teaching of econome...

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Probability is hard, part two

May 6, 2016
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Probability is hard, part two

If you read yesterday's post, you know that my colleague Sanjoy Mahajan and I have been working on a series of problems related to conditional probability and Bayesian statistics.  In the previous article, I presented the Red Dice problem, which i...

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The Puzzle of Paul Meehl: An intellectual history of research criticism in psychology

May 6, 2016
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The Puzzle of Paul Meehl:  An intellectual history of research criticism in psychology

There’s nothing wrong with Meehl. He’s great. The puzzle of Paul Meehl is that everything we’re saying now, all this stuff about the problems with Psychological Science and PPNAS and Ted talks and all that, Paul Meehl was saying 50 years ago. And it was no secret. So how is it that all this was […] The post The Puzzle of Paul Meehl: An intellectual history of research criticism in…

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