Animate snowfall in SAS

December 14, 2016
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Animate snowfall in SAS

Out of the bosom of the Air,     Out of the cloud-folds of her garments shaken, Over the woodlands brown and bare,     Over the harvest-fields forsaken,         Silent, and soft, and slow         Descends the snow. "Snow-flakes" by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow Happy holidays to all my readers! In my last post I showed […] The post Animate snowfall in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Bayesian statistics: What’s it all about?

December 14, 2016
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Kevin Gray sent me a bunch of questions on Bayesian statistics and I responded. The interview is here at KDnuggets news. For some reason the KDnuggets editors gave it the horrible, horrible title, “Bayesian Basics, Explained.” I guess they don’t waste their data mining and analytics skills on writing blog post titles! That said, I […] The post Bayesian statistics: What’s it all about? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Rupture Detection

December 13, 2016
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Rupture Detection

There are some graphs that you cannot forget. One graph that I found puzzling was mentioned on Andrew Gelman’s blog, a few years back, and was related to rupture detection What I remember from this graph is that if you want to get a rupture, you can easily find one… Recently, I had to review a paper, and Imbens & Lemieux (2008) was mentioned (the paper on Regression Discontinuity). It…

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The social world is (in many ways) continuous but people’s mental models of the world are Boolean

December 13, 2016
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The social world is (in many ways) continuous but people’s mental models of the world are Boolean

Raghu Parthasarathy points me to this post and writes: I wrote after seeing one too many talks in which someone bases boolean statements about effects “existing” or “not existing” (infuriating in itself) based on “p < 0.05” or “p > 0.5”. Of course, you’ve written tons of great things on the pitfalls, errors, and general […] The post The social world is (in many ways) continuous but people’s mental models…

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R in Insurance 2017

December 13, 2016
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R in Insurance 2017

The fifth conference on R in Insurance will be held on 8 June 2017 at ENSAE. ENSAE is the Paris Graduate School for Economics, Statistics and Finance.The intended audience of the conference includes both academics and practitioners who are active or in...

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The Case For Using -> In R

December 13, 2016
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The Case For Using -> In R

R has a number of assignment operators (at least “<-“, “=“, and “->“; plus “<<-” and “->>” which have different semantics). The R-style guides routinely insist on “<-” as being the only preferred form. In this note we are going to try to make the case for “->” when using magrittr pipelines. [edit: After reading … Continue reading The Case For Using -> In R

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puzzled by harmony [not!]

December 12, 2016
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puzzled by harmony [not!]

In answering yet another question on X validated about the numerical approximation of the marginal likelihood, I suggested using an harmonic mean estimate as a simple but worthless solution based on an MCMC posterior sample. This was on a toy example with a uniform prior on (0,π) and a “likelihood” equal to sin(θ) [really a […]

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Avoiding only the shadow knowing the motivating problem of a post.

December 12, 2016
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Avoiding only the shadow knowing the motivating problem of a post.

Graphic From Given I am starting to make some posts to this blog (again) I was pleased to run across a youtube of Xiao-Li Meng being interviewed on the same topic by Suzanne Smith the Director of the Center for Writing and Communicating Ideas. One thing I picked up was to make the problem being addressed […] The post Avoiding only the shadow knowing the motivating problem of a post. appeared…

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Avoiding selection bias by analyzing all possible forking paths

December 12, 2016
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Avoiding selection bias by analyzing all possible forking paths

Ivan Zupic points me to this online discussion of the article, Dwork et al. 2015, The reusable holdout: Preserving validity in adaptive data analysis. The discussants are all talking about the connection between adaptive data analysis and the garden of forking paths; for example, this from one commenter: The idea of adaptive data analysis is […] The post Avoiding selection bias by analyzing all possible forking paths appeared first on…

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Create a Koch snowflake with SAS

December 12, 2016
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Create a Koch snowflake with SAS

I have a fondness for fractals. In previous articles, I've used SAS to create some of my favorite fractals, including a fractal Christmas tree and the "devil's staircase" (Cantor ) function. Because winter is almost here, I think it is time to construct the Koch snowflake fractal in SAS. A […] The post Create a Koch snowflake with SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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I set up a new data analysis blog

December 12, 2016
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I set up a new data analysis blog

Well, I tried to write a blog post using the RStudio Rmarkdown system, and utterly failed. Thus, I set up a system where I could write from RStudio. So I set up a Github pages blog at randomjohn.github.io. There I can easily write and publish post...

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I set up a new data analysis blog

December 12, 2016
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I set up a new data analysis blog

Well, I tried to write a blog post using the RStudio Rmarkdown system, and utterly failed. Thus, I set up a system where I could write from RStudio. So I set up a Github pages blog at randomjohn.github.io. There I can easily write and publish post...

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What is going on?

December 12, 2016
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What is going on?

I seem to be getting an increasing number of submissions where the author has clearly not bothered to actually check that the paper was submitted correctly. Here is a rejection letter I wrote today. Dear xxxxx I am writing concerning manuscript #INTFO...

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What is going on?

December 12, 2016
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What is going on?

I seem to be getting an increasing number of submissions where the author has clearly not bothered to actually check that the paper was submitted correctly. Here is a rejection letter I wrote today. Dear xxxxx I am writing concerning manuscript #INTFOR_16xxxxx entitled “xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx” which you submitted to the International Journal of Forecasting. Thank you […]

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ratio-of-uniforms [-1]

December 11, 2016
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ratio-of-uniforms [-1]

Luca Martino pointed out to me my own and forgotten review of a 2012 paper of his, “On the Generalized Ratio of Uniforms as a Combination of Transformed Rejection and Extended Inverse of Density Sampling” that obviously discusses a generalised version of Kinderman and Monahan’s (1977) ratio-of-uniform method. And further points out the earlier 1991 paper […]

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What is valued by the Association for Psychological Science

December 11, 2016
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What is valued by the Association for Psychological Science

Someone pointed me to this program of the forthcoming Association for Psychological Science conference: Kind of amazing that they asked Amy Cuddy to speak. Weren’t Dana Carney or Andy Yap available? What would really have been bold would have been for them to invite Eva Ranehill or Anna Dreber. Good stuff. The chair of the […] The post What is valued by the Association for Psychological Science appeared first on…

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Has the Numeracy Project failed?

December 11, 2016
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Has the Numeracy Project failed?

The Numeracy Development Project has influenced the teaching of mathematics in New Zealand. It has changed the language people use to talk about mathematical understanding, introducing the terms “multiplicative thinking”, “part-whole” and “proportional reasoning” to the teacher toolkit. It has … Continue reading →

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Varieties of RCT Extensibility

December 11, 2016
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Even internally-valid RCT's have issues. They reveal the treatment effect only for the precise experiment performed and situation studied. Consider, for example, a study of the effects of fertilizer on crop yield, done for region X during a heat wave....

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How to think about the p-value from a randomized test?

December 11, 2016
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How to think about the p-value from a randomized test?

Roahn Wynart asks: Scenario: I collect a lot of data for a complex psychology experiment. I put all the raw data into a computer. I program the computer to do 100 statistical tests. I assign each statistical test to a key on my keyboard. However, I do NOT execute the statistical test. Each key will […] The post How to think about the p-value from a randomized test? appeared first…

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The case for index-free data manipulation

December 10, 2016
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The case for index-free data manipulation

Statisticians and data scientists want a neat world where data is arranged in a table such that every row is an observation or instance, and every column is a variable or measurement. Getting to this state of “ready to model format” (often called a denormalized form by relational algebra types) often requires quite a bit … Continue reading The case for index-free data manipulation

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fMRI clusterf******

December 10, 2016
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fMRI clusterf******

Several people pointed me to this paper by Anders Eklund, Thomas Nichols, and Hans Knutsson, which begins: Functional MRI (fMRI) is 25 years old, yet surprisingly its most common statistical methods have not been validated using real data. Here, we used resting-state fMRI data from 499 healthy controls to conduct 3 million task group analyses. […] The post fMRI clusterf****** appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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5 more things I learned from the 2016 election

December 10, 2016
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After posting the 19 Things We Learned from the 2016 Election, I received a bunch of helpful feedback in comments and email. Here are some of the key points that I missed or presented unclearly: Non-presidential elections Nadia Hassan points out that my article is “so focused on the Presidential race than it misses some […] The post 5 more things I learned from the 2016 election appeared first on…

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“The Fundamental Incompatibility of Scalable Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Naive Data Subsampling”

December 10, 2016
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Here’s Michael Betancourt writing in 2015: Leveraging the coherent exploration of Hamiltonian flow, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo produces computationally efficient Monte Carlo estimators, even with respect to complex and high-dimensional target distributions. When confronted with data-intensive applications, however, the algorithm may be too expensive to implement, leaving us to consider the utility of approximations such as […] The post “The Fundamental Incompatibility of Scalable Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Naive Data Subsampling”…

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