Understanding Margin of Error for Small Populations

October 13, 2015
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Understanding Margin of Error for Small Populations

A comment on why does a pollster reported a narrow margin of error despite the small sample. I got an email today inquiring if the margin of error reported in the newest poll by Datafolha would possibly be misleading. The polling firm often report s...

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Understanding Margin of Error for Small Populations

October 13, 2015
By
Understanding Margin of Error for Small Populations

A comment on why does a pollster reported a narrow margin of error despite the small sample. I got an email today inquiring if the margin of error reported in the newest poll by Datafolha would possibly be misleading. The polling firm often report s...

Read more »

Understanding Margin of Error for Small Populations

October 13, 2015
By
Understanding Margin of Error for Small Populations

A comment on why does a pollster reported a narrow margin of error despite the small sample. I got an email today inquiring if the margin of error reported in the newest poll by Datafolha would possibly be misleading. The polling firm often report s...

Read more »

Understanding Margins Of Error

October 13, 2015
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Understanding Margins Of Error

— layout: page subheadline: “Discussion” title: “Understanding Margins of Error for Small Populations” teaser: “A comment on why does a pollster reported a narrow margin of error despite the small sample.” date: 2015-10-13 09:00:00 categ...

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Debunking Magical 9s – Numerology or Numerical Illiteracy?

October 12, 2015
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Debunking Magical 9s – Numerology or Numerical Illiteracy?

The other day one of my friends on facebook posted this video about the mystical nature of the number 9. Being a skeptical of all things hokey, I decided to experiment with numbers to see how special 9 really is.There are four claims made in the video ...

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Mars Missions are a Scam

October 12, 2015
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Dan Vergano, science reporter at BuzzFeed News and formerly of USA Today, writes: We wonder if you, or someone you’d recommend, might comment on a replication debate that is playing out in the journal Political Psychology. Essentially, a researcher at Fordham claimed pictures of eyes on mailers increased voter turnout in 2014. Two authors elsewhere […] The post Mars Missions are a Scam appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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On deck this week

October 12, 2015
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Mon: Mars Missions are a Scam Tues: What do you learn from p=.05? This example from Carl Morris will blow your mind. Wed: Here’s a theoretical research project for you Thurs: In that article, they forgot to mention that Ludmerer is one of the 5 doctors in America who has no opinion on whether cigarette […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Create a surface plot in SAS

October 12, 2015
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Create a surface plot in SAS

This article shows how to visualize a surface in SAS. You can use the SURFACEPLOTPARM statement in the Graph Template Language (GTL) to create a surface plot. But don't worry, you don't need to know anything about GTL: just copy the code in this article and replace the names of […] The post Create a surface plot in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Lies, Damned Lies, & Cointegration

October 11, 2015
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Lies, Damned Lies, & Cointegration

My thanks to a colleague for bringing to my attention a recent discussion paper with the provocative title, "Why Most Published Results on Unit Root and Cointegration are False". As you can imagine, I couldn't resist it!After a quick read (and a c...

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New competition: Pick a title for Niall Ferguson’s next book!

October 11, 2015
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New competition:  Pick a title for Niall Ferguson’s next book!

I saw this recent news item and I realized it’s a perfect hook for a new work by the prolific and trash-talking historian Niall Ferguson. Once the Kissinger biography is over, I assume Ferguson will want to return to his specialty, economic history. And what better topic than an exploration of mid-twentieth century Keynesianism. Ferguson […] The post New competition: Pick a title for Niall Ferguson’s next book! appeared first…

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On Forecast Intervals "too Wide to be Useful"

October 11, 2015
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I keep hearing people say things like this or that forecast interval is "too wide to be useful." In general, equating "wide" intervals with "useless" intervals is nonsense. A good (useful) forecast interval is one that's correctly conditionally ca...

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P-value madness: A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)

October 11, 2015
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P-value madness: A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)

Given the excited whispers about the upcoming meeting of the American Statistical Association Committee on P-Values and Statistical Significance, it’s an apt time to reblog my post on the “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy that began the latest brouhaha! A large number of people have sent me articles on the “test ban” of statistical hypotheses tests and […]

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Gay gene tabloid hype update

October 11, 2015
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Gay gene tabloid hype update

Tuck Ngun, one of the researchers involved in the “Twin study reveals five DNA markers that are associated with sexual orientation” project, posted a disagreement with some criticisms relayed by science reporter Ed Yong. I’d thought Yong’s points were pretty good and I was interested in seeing what Ngun had to say. Ngun wrote: I […] The post Gay gene tabloid hype update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Latest gay gene tabloid hype

October 10, 2015
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Latest gay gene tabloid hype

The tabloid in question is the journal Nature, which along with Science and PPNAS (the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, publisher of gems such as the himmicanes and hurricanes study) has in recent years become notorious for publishing flashy but unsubstantiated scientific claims. As Lord Acton never said, publicity corrupts, and absolute publicity […] The post Latest gay gene tabloid hype appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Doomed to fail: A pre-registration site for parapsychology

October 10, 2015
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Doomed to fail:  A pre-registration site for parapsychology

A correspondent writes: There is now a pre-registration site for parapsychology: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4332280/ https://koestlerunit.wordpress.com/study-registry/registered-studies/ There are several experiments that completely flopped, some that haven’t been published after a few years (like Daryl Bem and collaborator’s attempted large-n replication of Bem), and some that report positive pre-registered results (but probably usually have repeatable methodological problems). Sorry but […] The post Doomed to fail: A pre-registration site for parapsychology appeared first on Statistical…

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Delta Method Confidence Bands for Gaussian Mixture Density (Can Behave Badly)

October 9, 2015
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Delta Method Confidence Bands for Gaussian Mixture Density (Can Behave Badly)

This post follows from a previous post (2798), in which the delta method was used to create an approximate pointwise 95% confidence band for a Gaussian density estimate. Note that the quality of this estimate was not assessed (e.g., whether the band has the correct pointwise coverage). Here we extend that approach to the Gaussian … Continue reading Delta Method Confidence Bands for Gaussian Mixture Density (Can Behave Badly) →

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Flip a fair coin 4x. Probability of H following H is 40%???

October 9, 2015
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Flip a fair coin 4x. Probability of H following H is 40%???

A recent working paper has come out arguing for the existence of Hot Hands (in basketball), a concept psychologists had dismissed decades ago. Hot hands is where a player is thought to have a higher likelihood of scoring the next basket if the last thr...

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Political advertising update

October 9, 2015
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Political advertising update

Last month I posted an article on the sister blog: How much does advertising matter in presidential elections?, discussing a paper by Brett Gordon and Wesley Hartmann. Gordon sent in an update: Both Wes and I greatly appreciate your comments and for highlighting our work. All the points you raise are quite fair. As you […] The post Political advertising update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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The Graphical Network Associated with Customer Churn

October 8, 2015
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The Graphical Network Associated with Customer Churn

The node representing "Will Not Stay" draws our focus toward the left side of the following undirected graph. Customers of a health care insurance provider were asked about their intentions to renew at the next sign-up period. We focus on those indicat...

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Most successful blog post ever

October 8, 2015
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Last month, I posted this on the sister blog at the Washington Post: Under the subject line, “My best friend from 1st grade wrote this article,” Joshua Vogelstein pointed me to pointed me to an article in the journal Marketing Science . . . written by Brett Gordon and Wesley Hartmann . . . Then […] The post Most successful blog post ever appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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A data visualization that is invariant to the data

October 8, 2015
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A data visualization that is invariant to the data

This map appeared in Princeton Alumni Weekly: Here is another map I created: If you think they look basically the same, you got the point. Now look at the data on the maps. The original map displays the proportion of...

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“Gallup gives up the horse race: As pollsters confront unprecedented obstacles, the biggest name in the business backs away”

October 8, 2015
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A couple people pointed me to this news item. I don’t have anything particular to say here, but it seemed worth noting. End of an era and all that. P.S. A colleague commented: “They’re not going to poll one of those things where we can tell if you get it wrong. Not good.” I replied: […] The post “Gallup gives up the horse race: As pollsters confront unprecedented obstacles, the…

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In defense of statistical recipes, but with enriched ingredients (scientist sees squirrel)

October 8, 2015
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In defense of statistical recipes, but with enriched ingredients (scientist sees squirrel)

Evolutionary ecologist, Stephen Heard (Scientist Sees Squirrel) linked to my blog yesterday. Heard’s post asks: “Why do we make statistics so hard for our students?” I recently blogged Barnard who declared “We need more complexity” in statistical education. I agree with both: after all, Barnard also called for stressing the overarching reasoning for given methods, and that’s in sync with […]

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