Bonferroni, les anniversaires et les terroristes (ou pas)

March 10, 2016
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Le paradoxe des anniversaires est un exercice de probabilité que l’on découvre assez vite. Mais assez souvent, on l’oublie, alors qu’il est en réalité assez profond. Le problème est le suivant: quel est le nombre de personnes qu’il faut réunir pour avoir (au moins) une chance sur 2 pour que deux personnes aient leur anniversaire le même jour. Si on calcule la probabilité que deux personnes dans un groupe de…

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Good advice can do you bad

March 10, 2016
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Here are some examples of good, solid, reasonable statistical advice which can lead people astray. Example 1 Good advice: Statistical significance is not the same as practical significance. How it can mislead: People get the impression that a statistically significant result is more impressive if it’s larger in magnitude. Why it’s misleading: See this classic […] The post Good advice can do you bad appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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The state of the art of interactive graphics

March 10, 2016
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The state of the art of interactive graphics

Scott Klein's team at Propublica published a worthy news application, called "Hell and High Water" (link) I took some time taking in the experience. It's a project that needs room to breathe. The setting is Houston Texas, and the subject...

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2 MSc Scholarships in Medical Statistics

March 10, 2016
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2 MSc Scholarships in Medical Statistics

Our department has just been awarded two NIHR MSc studentships in Medical Statistics. In fact, we've been successful in securing funds for the next 3 years (2 studentships per year). This is kind of cool $-$ we're already increasing the numbe...

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Le Menu Dit : a translation app

March 10, 2016
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Le Menu Dit : a translation app

This post is by Phil Price. “Le Menu Dit” is an iPhone app that some friends and I wrote, which translates restaurant menus from English into French. (The name is French for “The Menu Says.”) The friends are Nathan Addy and another excellent programmer who would like to remain nameless for now. Here’s how the […] The post Le Menu Dit : a translation app appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt. I was ungeneralizable to myself.

March 9, 2016
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Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt.  I was ungeneralizable to myself.

One more rep. The new thing you just have to read, if you’re following the recent back-and-forth on replication in psychology, is this post at Retraction Watch in which Nosek et al. respond to criticisms from Gilbert et al. regarding the famous replication project. Gilbert et al. claimed that many of the replications in the […] The post Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt. I was ungeneralizable…

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How do you react to a probability forecast?

March 9, 2016
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How do you react to a probability forecast?

There is a healthy debate going on about last night's Michigan primary on the Democratic side, in which Bernie Sanders pulled off a major upset. Polls leading up to the primary put Hillary Clinton ahead by about 20 percent points. That would be a huge margin. Fivethirtyeight, which has been doing a stellar job covering the elections, uses polls heavily in generating forecasts, and they had predicted that Clinton would…

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Comparative histograms: Panel and overlay histograms in SAS

March 9, 2016
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Comparative histograms: Panel and  overlay histograms in SAS

You can use histograms to visualize the distribution of data. A comparative histogram enables you to compare two or more distributions, which usually represent subpopulations in the data. Common subpopulations include males versus females or a control group versus an experimental group. There are two common ways to construct a […] The post Comparative histograms: Panel and overlay histograms in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Postdoctoral Researcher and Research Fellow positions in Computer Science in Helsinki, Finland

March 9, 2016
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There are several PostDoc positions open in Aalto University and University of Helsinki related to statistical modeling, Bayesian inference, probabilistic programming (including Stan) and machine learning. There is also possibility to collaborate with me :) See a detailed list of the research areas and the full call text. The deadline is April 1, 2016. My […] The post Postdoctoral Researcher and Research Fellow positions in Computer Science in Helsinki, Finland…

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Monash Business Analytics Team Profile

Monash Business Analytics Team Profile

Our research group been growing lately, as you can see below! We were featured in the latest issue of the Monash newsletter The Insider. Check it out.

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preserving frequencies without resampling

March 8, 2016
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preserving frequencies without resampling

An interesting question came up on X validated a few days ago: given a probability vector p=(p¹,…,p⁷), is there a way to pick 5 values in {1,…,7} without replacement and still preserve the probability repartition in the resulting sample? In other words, is there a sampling without replacement strategy that leads to for i=1,…,7..? Unless […]

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Bayesian inference for network links

March 8, 2016
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A colleague writes: I’m working with a doctoral student on a latent affinity network problem and we keep hitting challenges in sampling, in our case using Metropolis-Hastings, for the network links. As you can imagine, lots of local modes, things get stuck, etc . . . Any suggestions on how to sample network links? My […] The post Bayesian inference for network links appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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The American Statistical Association makes a statement on p-values

March 8, 2016
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The American Statistical Association makes a statement on p-values

This deserves to be read, re-read, re-re-read, and taken to heart. The ASA makes their statement on p-values.Some key points:p-values by themselves offer very little information on the utility of a model, the truth of a statement, or what is behind a d...

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Stan – The Bayesian Data Scientist’s Best Friend

March 8, 2016
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Stan – The Bayesian Data Scientist’s Best Friend

My friend Juuso Parkkinen has interesting Stan related blog, which is worth following. The above cool animation is from today’s post discussing the updated results of using Stan to model apartment prices in Finland. Few weeks ago Juuso also blogged about a probabilistic programming seminar in Finland with a title Stan – The Bayesian Data […] The post Stan – The Bayesian Data Scientist’s Best Friend appeared first on Statistical…

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For Whom Will the Michigan Mitt Swing?

March 8, 2016
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For Whom Will the Michigan Mitt Swing?

Tomorrow, March 8th, Michigan with 130 delegates gets to vote one which of the Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders should be the Democratic presidential nominee. Michigan is an important state because is represents a large number o...

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Papamoa College statistics excursion to Hamilton Zoo

March 8, 2016
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Papamoa College statistics excursion to Hamilton Zoo

Last week I had a lovely experience. I visited the Hamilton Observatory and Zoo as part of a Statistics excursion with the Year 13 statistics class of Papamoa College. The trip was organised to help students learn about where data … Continue reading →

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Smiley faces were never seen

March 7, 2016
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Smiley faces were never seen

Jay Livingston shares a graph from this paper by Shiry Ginosar, Kate Rakelly, Sarah Sachs, Brian Yin, and Alexei Eforos: The graphs summarizes an analysis from a database of high school yearbook photos. Livingston writes: Ginosar et al. have only one explanation for the upward trend – technology. In the early 20th century, they say, […] The post Smiley faces were never seen appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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The problems with p-values are not just with p-values: My comments on the recent ASA statement

March 7, 2016
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The American Statistical Association just released a committee report on the use of p-values. I was one of the members of the committee but I did not write the report. We were also given the opportunity to add our comments. Here’s what I sent: The problems with p-values are not just with p-values The ASA’s […] The post The problems with p-values are not just with p-values: My comments on…

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Don’t throw out the error control baby with the bad statistics bathwater

March 7, 2016
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Don’t throw out the error control baby with the bad statistics bathwater

My invited comments on the ASA Document on P-values* The American Statistical Association is to be credited with opening up a discussion into p-values; now an examination of the foundations of other key statistical concepts is needed. Statistical significance tests are a small part of a rich set of “techniques for systematically appraising and bounding […]

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On deck this week

March 7, 2016
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Mon: Smiley faces were never seen Tues: Bayesian inference for network links Wed: Some people are so easy to contact and some people aren’t. Thurs: Good advice can do you bad Fri: Statistics is like basketball, or knitting Sat: 0.05 is a joke Sun: The unbelievable reason that Jennifer Lawrence is using Waic and cross-validation […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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How to get fired, the data scientist edition

March 7, 2016
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Investors of Herbalife (HLF) are owed a full explanation of the metrics disaster that the management disclosed suddenly to the SEC last week. As a regulator, the SEC should be requesting much more information about what happened. (Click on the 8K filed in March 2016. Here is the LA Times article.) On Feb 25, Herbalife management held an earnings call to discuss 2015 4th quarter and full year results. Investors…

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How to use COLLECTION effects to specify pairwise interactions in SAS

March 7, 2016
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How to use COLLECTION effects to specify pairwise interactions in SAS

Most SAS regression procedures support the "stars and bars" operators, which enable you to create models that include main effects and all higher-order interaction effects. You can also easily create models that include all n-way interactions up to a specified value of n. However, it can be a challenge to […] The post How to use COLLECTION effects to specify pairwise interactions in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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I was wrong

March 6, 2016
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I was wrong

A few years ago I noted a report of a new journal with a title that, to my amusement, seemed to reflect a Rat-Pack-era sensibility. I wrote: Coase and Wang’s new journal might be great, but I bet it won’t be called “Man and the Economy.” But, ...

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