More Explorations with catR

December 1, 2013
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More Explorations with catR

# For the purposes of simulating computerized adaptive tests# the R package catR is unparallelled. # catR is an excellent tool for students who are curious about# how a computerized adaptive test might work. It is also useful# for testing companie...

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Lost

November 30, 2013
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Lost

The results of the ISBA elections have come out and unfortunately, I've been beaten to the post of programme chair for the Section on Biostatistics and Pharmaceutical Statistics.I am not sure by how much $-$ I meant to ask for more details, but I'...

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My talk at the LSHTM

November 30, 2013
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Yesterday I gave a talk on our RDD project at the Centre for Statistical Methodology of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. While presenting me, Karla (the organiser of the seminar) joked that I should go for a hat trick of present...

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More confusing statements of probability due to no controls

November 30, 2013
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A recent article in USA Today is titled “Many with sudden cardiac arrest had early signs” (link). The signs include shortness of breath, faintness, chest pain, etc. Hold on to the headline because it’s the only thing believable in the entire article. The words “early signs” imply to readers that were the men to heed these warnings, they could have prevented the cardiac arrests. Think about the following two statements:…

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???

November 30, 2013
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I received the following unsolicited email, subject line Technology and Engineering Research: Dear Editor We have done research in some of the cutting edge technology and engineering field and would like to if you will be able to write about it in your news section. Our Primarily research focus on building high performance systems that […]The post ??? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Le Monde puzzle [#842]

November 29, 2013
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Le Monde puzzle [#842]

An easily phrased (and solved?) Le Monde mathematical puzzle that does not [really] require an R code: The five triplets A,B,C,D,E are such that and Given that find the five triplets. Adding up both sets of equations shows everything solely depends upon E1… So running an R code that checks for all possible values of […]

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Social media popularity, revisited.

November 29, 2013
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Social media popularity, revisited.

You might remember my post on Twitter mentions in New York Times articles from a few months back. I simply accessed the NYT API and plotted a graph showing the rise in mentions over the past few years. At the time, I used R's very popular plotting libr...

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The gradual transition to replicable science

November 29, 2013
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Somebody emailed me: I am a researcher at ** University and I have recently read your article on average predictive comparisons for statistical models published 2007 in the journal “Sociological Methodology”. Gelman, Andrew/Iain Pardoe. 2007. “Average Predictive Comparisons for Models with Nonlinearity, Interactions, and Variance Components”. Sociological Methodology 37: 23-51. Currently I am working with […]The post The gradual transition to replicable science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Unusual timing shows how random mass murder can be (or even less)

November 29, 2013
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Unusual timing shows how random mass murder can be (or even less)

This post follows the original one on the headline of the USA Today I read during my flight to Toronto last month. I remind you that the unusual pattern was about observing four U.S. mass murders happening within four days, “for the first time in at least seven years”. Which means that the difference between […]

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Was “Statistical zealots” copied from an old letter?

November 29, 2013
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Recently Jeff Leek over at Simple Statistics posted what I though was an original discussion about Statistical Zealotry. But then I saw this newly unearthed letter from an unknown European Professor to a colleague. It’s at least 300 years old, bu...

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“Statistics is what people think math is”

November 28, 2013
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My 5books interview (from 2011), where we talk about The Bill James Baseball Abstracts, Judgment under Uncertainty, How Animals Work, The Honest Rainmaker, and How to Talk So Kids Will Listen and Listen So Kids Will Talk. The post “Statistics is ...

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Book Review: Practical Data Analysis by Hector Cuesta

November 28, 2013
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Book Review: Practical Data Analysis by Hector Cuesta

I have been reading this book since last week, and now I want to share my thoughts about it. I was excited to review this because I've never heard most of the tools it features, like OpenRefine, MongoDB, and MapReduce. The book has 360 pages and surpri...

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Fast Threshold Clustering Algorithm (FTCA) test

November 28, 2013
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Fast Threshold Clustering Algorithm (FTCA) test

Today I want to share the test and implementation for the Fast Threshold Clustering Algorithm (FTCA) created by David Varadi. This implementation was developed and contributed by Pierre Chretien, I only made minor updates. Let’s first replicate the results from the Fast Threshold Clustering Algorithm (FTCA) post: The clusters are stable and match David’s results […]

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PSMR 2014

November 27, 2013
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Registration for the short course on Practical Statistics for Medical Research (PSMR) 2014 are now open. Here is the advert we've published on the BMJ with all the relevant information and details and even more info & details are here $-$ in case y...

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McKinsey Urban World App Reveals City Statistics on the Smart Phone

November 27, 2013
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McKinsey Urban World App Reveals City Statistics on the Smart Phone

The Urban World App [mckinsey.com] by global management consulting firm McKinsey only runs on the iOS and Android operating systems. The smoothly animated application consists of an interactive, 3D globe that shows the population, income and GDP sta...

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Three unblinded mice

November 27, 2013
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Three unblinded mice

Howard Wainer points us to a recent news article by Jennifer Couzin-Frankel, who writes about the selection bias arising from the routine use of outcome criteria to exclude animals in medical trials. In statistics and econometrics, this is drilled into us: Selection on x is OK, selection on y is not OK. But apparently in […]The post Three unblinded mice appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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“The probability that it be a statistical fluke” [iia]

November 27, 2013
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“The probability that it be a statistical fluke” [iia]

My rationale for the last post is really just to highlight such passages as: “Particle physicists have agreed, by convention, not to view an observed phenomenon as a discovery until the probability that it be a statistical fluke be below 1 in a million, a requirement that seems insanely draconian at first glance.” (Strassler)…. Even […]

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Free NYU session on data visualization

November 27, 2013
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As some of you may know, NYU is launching a Certificate in Analytics and Data Visualization, which I have helped put together. The course offerings are shown here. If you need to visualize data for work, this is the program...

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Importance sampling schemes for evidence approximation in mixture models

November 26, 2013
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Importance sampling schemes for evidence approximation in mixture models

Jeong Eun (Kate) Lee and I completed this paper, “Importance sampling schemes for evidence approximation in mixture models“, now posted on arXiv. (With the customary one-day lag for posting, making me bemoan the days of yore when arXiv would give a definitive arXiv number at the time of submission.) Kate came twice to Paris in the past […]

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A Game Tree of Rafael Nadal’s Tennis Matches in Season 2013

November 26, 2013
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A Game Tree of Rafael Nadal’s Tennis Matches in Season 2013

The Game Tree Interactive [gamesetmap.com] visualization by Damien Demaj analyzes the more than 600 service games played by Rafael Nadal during the Grand Slams, Masters 1000 and World Tour Finals in the year 2013. In particular, this visual summary sh...

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What’s your connection to the distant stars?

November 26, 2013
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Many have thought motion somehow required the presence of other objects. Just like gravity requires two masses to exist, it seems like motion is meaningless in a universe with just one mass. This suggests inertia itself somehow requires other masses an...

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Statistical zealots

November 26, 2013
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Statistical zealots

Yesterday my data sharing policy went a little bit viral. It hit the front page of Hacker News and was a trending repo on Github. I was reading the comments on Hacker News and came across this gem: So, while I … Continue reading →

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