The many-faced area chart is not usually your best choice

May 16, 2016
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The many-faced area chart is not usually your best choice

I found this chart about the exploding U.S. debt levels in ZeroHedge (link), sourced from Citibank. The top line story is pretty easy to see: total debt levels have almost reached the peak of the 1930s. (Ignore that dreadful labeling...

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The Babylonian method for finding square roots by hand

May 16, 2016
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The Babylonian method for finding square roots by hand

When I was in the sixth grade, I learned an iterative procedure for computing square roots by hand. Yes, I said by hand. Scientific calculators with a square root key were not yet widely available, so I and previous generations of children suffered through learning to calculate square roots by […] The post The Babylonian method for finding square roots by hand appeared first on The DO Loop.

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New Edition of Designing the User Interface

May 16, 2016
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New Edition of Designing the User Interface

The 6th edition of Designing the User Interface just came out. This is one of the central books in HCI. This edition is also notable because it adds a lot of fresh blood to the list of authors. Ben Shneiderman published the first edition of the book in 1986. Since the third edition, Catherine Plaisant has been … Continue reading New Edition of Designing the User Interface

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reversible chain[saw] massacre

May 15, 2016
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reversible chain[saw] massacre

A paper in Nature this week that uses reversible-jump MCMC, phylogenetic trees, and Bayes factors. And that looks at institutionalised or ritual murders in Austronesian cultures. How better can it get?! “by applying Bayesian phylogenetic methods (…) we find strong support for models in which human sacrifice stabilizes social stratification once stratification has arisen, and […]

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Bayesian inference in the (abnormal) mind

May 15, 2016
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Bayesian inference in the (abnormal) mind

The (abnormal) mind can be modeled as a Bayesian inference engine, as summarized in the post, Bayesian reasoning implicated in some mental disorders. Excerpt:“The brain is a guessing machine [i.e., Bayesian inference engine - JKK], trying at each mom...

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Peer review abuse flashback

May 15, 2016
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Peer review abuse flashback

Our recent discussion of the problems with peer review reminded me of this amusing/horrifying story from a few years ago, when some researchers noticed a data coding error in a published paper Once it was noticed, the error was obvious: But the authors of the original paper had that never-back-down attitude. So instead of thanking […] The post Peer review abuse flashback appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Point summary of posterior simulations?

May 14, 2016
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Luke Miratrix writes: ​In the applied stats class ​I’m teaching ​on​ hierarchical models I’m giving the students (a mix of graduate students, many from the education school, and undergrads) a taste of Stan. I have to give them some “standard” way to turn Stan output into a point estimate (though of course I’ll also explain […] The post Point summary of posterior simulations? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Stan talk in Seattle on Tuesday, May 17

May 13, 2016
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I (Eric) will be giving a Stan talk at the Seattle useR Group next week. Daniel Lee and Ben Goodrich will be there as well. If you are in the Seattle area on Tuesday, please stop by and say hello. Thanks to Zach Stednick for organizing this meetup. Th...

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Leicester City and Donald Trump: How to think about predictions and longshot victories?

May 13, 2016
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Leicester City and Donald Trump:  How to think about predictions and longshot victories?

Leicester City was a 5000-to-1 shot to win the championship—and they did it. Donald Trump wasn’t supposed to win the Republican nomination—last summer Nate gave him a 2% chance—and it looks like he will win. For that matter, Nate only gave Bernie Sanders a 7% chance, and he came pretty close. Soccer There’s been a […] The post Leicester City and Donald Trump: How to think about predictions and longshot…

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Disseminating reproducible research is fundamentally a language and communication problem

May 13, 2016
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Just about 10 years ago, I wrote my first of many articles about the importance of reproducible research. Since that article, one of the points I’ve made is that the key issue to resolve was one of tools and infrastructure. At the time, many people w...

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For a short time: Half Off Some Manning Data Science Books

May 12, 2016
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Our publisher Manning Publications is celebrating the release of a new data science in Python title Introducing Data Science by offering it and other Manning titles at half off until Wednesday, May 18. As part of the promotion you can also use the supplied discount code mlcielenlt for half off some R titles including R … Continue reading For a short time: Half Off Some Manning Data Science Books

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Happy talk, meet the Edlin factor

May 12, 2016
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Mark Palko points us to this op-ed in which psychiatrist Richard Friedman writes: There are also easy and powerful ways to enhance learning in young people. For example, there is intriguing evidence that the attitude that young people have about their own intelligence — and what their teachers believe — can have a big impact […] The post Happy talk, meet the Edlin factor appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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googleformr at Work: Pneumatic Road Tube Allegory

May 12, 2016
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googleformr at Work: Pneumatic Road Tube Allegory

Steve Simpson (@data_steve) created the googleformr package to enable users to easily send information to a Google Form.  It’s a nice way to send and securely store data via R and the price is great…FREE! A Pneumatic Road Tube Allegory…Kinda … Continue reading →

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SSA helping you find a job

SSA helping you find a job

One of the great services of the Statistical Society of Australia is an excellent jobs board advertising available jobs for statisticians, data analysts, data scientists, etc. Jobs can be filtered by industry, location and job function. Today the SSA a...

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Super-informative ping-pong graphic

May 11, 2016
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Super-informative ping-pong graphic

Via Twitter, Mike W. asked me to comment on this WSJ article about ping pong tables. According to the article, ping pong table sales track venture-capital deal flow: This chart is super-informative. I learned a lot from this chart, including:...

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Great Yield Curve Graphic

May 11, 2016
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Great Yield Curve Graphic

I'm giving an overview lecture today on certain aspects of yield curves and their modeling, which reminds me of this phenomenal NYT interactive graphic.  CLICK HERE to get going, and give it time to load.  Then click "next" to go through nine...

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MAPKIA 2: Josh and Drew shred the CCP/APPC “Political Polarization Literacy” test!

May 11, 2016
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MAPKIA 2:  Josh and Drew shred the CCP/APPC “Political Polarization Literacy” test!

Just like the original Jaws 2, this story features neither Richard Dreyfus nor Steven Spielberg. It all started when Dan Kahan sent me the following puzzle: Match the resonses of large nationally representative sample to supporting these policy items. I let this languish in my inbox for awhile until Kahan taunted me by letting me […] The post MAPKIA 2: Josh and Drew shred the CCP/APPC “Political Polarization Literacy” test!…

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Ten tips before you run an optimization

May 11, 2016
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Ten tips before you run an optimization

Optimization is a primary tool of computational statistics. SAS/IML software provides a suite of nonlinear optimizers that makes it easy to find an optimum for a user-defined objective function. You can perform unconstrained optimization, or define linear or nonlinear constraints for constrained optimization. Over the years I have seen many […] The post Ten tips before you run an optimization appeared first on The DO Loop.

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The Real Lesson for Data Science That is Demonstrated by Palantir’s Struggles

May 11, 2016
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The Real Lesson for Data Science That is Demonstrated by Palantir’s Struggles

Buzzfeed recently published a long article on the struggles of the secretive data science company, Palantir. Over the last 13 months, at least three top-tier corporate clients have walked away, including Coca-Cola, American Express, and Nasdaq, acc...

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AISTATS 2016 [#1]

May 10, 2016
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AISTATS 2016 [#1]

Travelling through Seville, I arrived in Càdiz on Sunday night, along with a massive depression [weather-speaking!]. Walking through the city from the station was nonetheless pleasant as this is an town full of small streets and nice houses. If with less churches than Seville! Richard Samworth gave the first plenary talk of AISTATS 2016  with […]

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Big Belly Roti on Amsterdam Ave and 123 St

May 10, 2016
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Big Belly Roti on Amsterdam Ave and 123 St

Josh “hot hand” Miller was in town and a bunch of us went to this new Caribbean place around the corner. It was good! P.S. The other hot hand guy, Sanjurjo, is not in town. The post Big Belly Roti on Amsterdam Ave and 123 St appeared fir...

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Probability is hard: part four

May 10, 2016
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Probability is hard: part four

This is the fourth part of a series of posts about conditional probability and Bayesian statistics.In the first article, I presented the Red Dice problem, which is a warm-up problem that might help us make sense of the other problems.In the s...

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What’s the motivation to do experiments on motivation?

May 10, 2016
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What’s the motivation to do experiments on motivation?

Bill Harris writes: Do you or your readers have any insights into the research that underlays Dan Pink’s work on motivation and Tom Wujec’s (or Peter Skillman’s) work on iterative development?  They make intuitive sense to me (but may be counterintuitive to others), but I don’t know much more about them. Pink’s work is summarized […] The post What’s the motivation to do experiments on motivation? appeared first on Statistical…

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