In a comment to my previous post, reader Chris P. pointed me to the following set of maps, also from the New York Times crew, on the legalization of gay marriage in the U.S. (link) (For those who did not...

George Scialabba, What Are Intellectuals Good For? Essays and Reviews and The Modern Predicament When I was trying to teach myself how to be a critic (or at least how to write criticism), one of my models was this "George Scialabba" character, who ke...

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Jin Feng and Thomas G. Kurtz, Large Deviations for Stochastic Processes \[ \newcommand{\Expect}[1]{\mathbb{E}\left[ #1 \right]} \newcommand{\Prob}[1]{\mathbb{P}\left( #1 \right)} \] Kurtz is best known for work in the 1970s and 1980s on how sequences of Markov processes converge on a limiting Markov process, especially on how they converge on a limiting deterministic dynamical system. This book is an extension of those ideas, and best…

Giorgia Lupi and Stefanie Posavec are collaborating on a clever and beautiful new project they call Dear Data (Twitter account). Every week, they are sending post cards to each other with hand-drawn visualizations of data they have gathered: public transportation, ways they communicate, etc. Giorgia and Stefanie are two of the most interesting people working in data visualization/design/art right … Continue reading Link: Dear Data

Can’t those shameless little bullies just let scientists do their research in peace? If a hypothesis test is statistically significant and a result is published in a real journal, that should be enough for any self-styled skeptic. Can you imagine what might happen if any published result could be questioned—by anybody? You’d have serious psychology […] The post Enough with the replication police appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Are science journalists required to take one good statistics course? That is the question in my head when I read this Science Times article, titled "One Cup of Coffee Could Offset Three Drinks a Day" (link). We are used to seeing rather tenuous conclusions such as "Four Cups of Coffee Reduces Your Risk of X". This headline takes it up another notch. A result is claimed about the substitution effect…

The Monty Hall Problem is one of the most famous problems in elementary probability. It is famous because the correct solution is counter-intuitive and because it caused an uproar when it appeared in the "Ask Marilyn" column in Parade magazine in 1990. Discussing the problem has been known to create […]

Given recent evidence of the irreproducibility of a surprising number of published scientific findings, the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) sought ideas for “leveraging its role as a significant funder of scientific research to most effectively address the problem”, and announced funding for projects to “reset the self-corrective process of scientific […]

Yahoo Labs has just released an interesting new data set useful for research on detecting anomalies (or outliers) in time series data. There are many contexts in which anomaly detection is important. For Yahoo, the main use case is in detecting unusual traffic on Yahoo servers. The data set comprises real traffic to Yahoo services, along […]

A recursive programming Le Monde mathematical puzzle: Given n tokens with 10≤n≤25, Alice and Bob play the following game: the first player draws an integer1≤m≤6 at random. This player can then take 1≤r≤min(2m,n) tokens. The next player is then free to take 1≤s≤min(2r,n-r) tokens. The player taking the last tokens is the winner. There is […]

For yesterday‘s contest I really really really wanted to pick John Waters. For one thing, of all the 64 people in the bracket, he’s the one I think I’d like to hear the most. For another, he’s still alive and just might conceivably be amused enough by this whole contest to come up from Baltimore […] The post The round of 8 begins: Mark Twain (4) vs. Miguel de Cervantes…

Mark Palko points to this report and writes: Putting aside my concerns with the “additional years of learning” metric (and I have a lot of them), I have the feeling that there’s something strange here or i’m missing something obvious. That jump from 3-year impact to 4-year seems excessive. The press release links to a […] The post Time-release pedagogy?? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Bayesian analysis and Frequentist analysis often lead to the same conclusions by different routes. But sometimes the two forms of analysis lead to starkly different conclusions. The following illustration of this difference comes from a talk by Luis Pericci last week. He attributes the example to “Bernardo (2010)” though I have not been able to find the exact […]

Following the highly successful [authorised opinion!, from objective sources] MCMski IV, in Chamonix last year, the BayesComp section of ISBA has decided in favour of a two-year period, which means the great item of news that next year we will meet again for MCMski V [or MCMskv for short], this time on the snowy slopes […]