Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”

September 22, 2013
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Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”

Memory lane: Did you ever consider how some of the colorful exchanges among better-known names in statistical foundations could be the basis for high literary drama in the form of one-act plays (even if appreciated by only 3-7 people in the world)? (Think of the expressionist exchange between Bohr and Heisenberg in Michael Frayn’s play […]

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Guns are cool

September 21, 2013
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Guns are cool

Reddit has a subreddit Guns are cool which in turn contains the MASS SHOOTINGS IN 2013 page. I pulled those data to see if there was anything of interest to plot or examine. I ended with modelling the frequency of shootings (once a ...

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Parum PI

September 20, 2013
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Parum PI

A couple of weeks ago, the MRC-funded research project on the Regression Discontinuity Design (of which I'm the Principal Investigator) has officially started, so I thought I wrote a few lines of update about it, after the couple of posts (here an...

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“Six red flags for suspect work”

September 20, 2013
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Raghu Parthasarathy sends along this article by C. Glenn Begley listing six questions to ask when worried about unreplicable work in biology: Were experiments performed blinded? (Even animal studies should be blinded when it comes to the recording and interpretation of the data—do you hear that, Mark Hauser?) Were basic experiments repeated? (“If reports fail […]The post “Six red flags for suspect work” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Theory gets too Much Respect, and Measurement Doesn’t get Enough (60-Second Lecture Video and Transcription)

September 20, 2013
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In the last post, I told you about Penn's "60-Second Lecture". Mine is now completed, and we had a good time. Watch the video, and you'll have a good laugh at the unflattering opening shot, complete with a barking dog in the background, and the blindin...

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The gradient of the bivariate normal cumulative distribution

September 20, 2013
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The gradient of the bivariate normal cumulative distribution

I'm spoiled by the internet. I've grown so accustomed to being able to instantly find an answer to any query—no matter how obscure—that I am surprised when I don't find what I am looking for. The other day I was trying to find a mathematical result: a formula for the [...]

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Loi de Poisson

September 20, 2013
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Suite du cours ACT2121, de préparation pour l’examen P de la SOA (probability). Un nouveaux jeu d’exercices, sur le thème 6 (tel que classifié dans le livre de Jacques Labelle, qui servira de référence pour ce cours) Loi de Poisson #6 ACT2...

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University Rankings over Time

September 20, 2013
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University Rankings over Time

The QS Rankings are an influential score sheet of universities around the world. They are published annually by Quacquarelli Symonds (QS), a British research company based in London. The rankings for 2013 are out, and I have charted the rankings of this year’s top 10 over the last five years: Observations from this year’s ranking: […]

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Testing (Introduction to Statistical Computing)

September 20, 2013
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Lecture 7: Our code implements a method for solving problems we expect to encounter in the future; but why should we trust those solutions? We establish the reliability of the code by testing it. To respect the interfaces of the code, we test the su...

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Homework: Standard Errors of the Cat Heart (Introduction to Statistical Computing)

September 20, 2013
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In which we meet the parametric bootstrap traveling incognito probe the precision of our estimation method from the last lab, by seeing how well it would work when the model is true and we know the parameters. Assignment Introduction to Statistical...

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Cox’s Theorem and Mayo’s Error Statistics

September 19, 2013
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This post will take a different tack. Rather than criticize the Severity Principle, I will attempt to patch it up. But as we try to fix problems with SEV, we’ll run up against Cox’s Theorem: A measure of evidence like SEV will either be equ...

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What makes a statistician look like a hero?

September 19, 2013
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Answer here (courtesy of Kaiser Fung).The post What makes a statistician look like a hero? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Vanity heights and scary charts

September 19, 2013
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Vanity heights and scary charts

Sometimes I wonder if I should just become a chart doctor. Andrew recently wrote that journals should have graphical editors. Businesses also need those, judging from this submission through Twitter (@francesdonald). Link is here. You don't know whether to laugh...

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Is coffee a killer? I don’t think the effect is as high as was estimated from the highest number that came out of a noisy study

September 19, 2013
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Is coffee a killer?  I don’t think the effect is as high as was estimated from the highest number that came out of a noisy study

Thomas Lumley writes: The Herald has a story about hazards of coffee. The picture caption says Men who drink more than four cups a day are 56 per cent more likely to die. which is obviously not true: deaths, as we’ve observed before, are fixed at one per customer.  The story says It’s not that people […]The post Is coffee a killer? I don’t think the effect is as high as…

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informative hypotheses (book review)

September 18, 2013
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informative hypotheses (book review)

The title of this book Informative Hypotheses somehow put me off from the start: the author, Hebert Hoijtink, seems to distinguish between informative and uninformative (deformative? disinformative?) hypotheses. Namely, something like H0: μ1=μ2=μ3=μ4 is “very informative” and unrealistic, and the alternative Ha is completely uninformative, while the “alternative null” H1: μ1<μ2=μ3<μ4 is informative. (Hence the < […]

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Pseudo-Bayes: a quick and awfully incomplete review

September 18, 2013
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Pseudo-Bayes: a quick and awfully incomplete review

A recently arxived paper by Pier Bissiri, Chris Holmes and Steve Walker piqued my curiosity about “pseudo-Bayesian” approaches, that is, statistical approaches based on a pseudo-posterior: where is some pseudo-likelihood. Pier, Chris and Steve use in particular where is some empirical risk function. A good example is classification; then could be the proportion of properly […]

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How to consume statistical analysis

September 18, 2013
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How to consume statistical analysis

I am giving a talk next week for the Data Science Group in Cambridge.  It's part six of the Leading Analytics series:Building your Analytical Skill setExport Tell a friend ShareTuesday, September 24, 20136:00 PM to 8:00 PMMicrosoft1...

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Understanding posterior p-values

September 18, 2013
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David Kaplan writes: I came across your paper “Understanding Posterior Predictive P-values”, and I have a question regarding your statement “If a posterior predictive p-value is 0.4, say, that means that, if we believe the model, we think there is a 40% chance that tomorrow’s value of T(y_rep) will exceed today’s T(y).” This is perfectly […]The post Understanding posterior p-values appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Compute a contour (level curve) in SAS

September 18, 2013
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Compute a contour (level curve) in SAS

Like many other computer packages, SAS can produce a contour plot that shows the level sets of a function of two variables. For example, I've previously written blogs that use contour plots to visualize the bivariate normal density function and to visualize the cumulative normal distribution function. However, sometimes you [...]

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Two Announcements

September 17, 2013
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Two Announcements

A couple of announcements: First: A message from Jeff Leek: “We are hosting an “unconference” on Google Hangouts. We got some really amazing speakers to talk about the future of statistics. I wonder if you could help advertise the unconference on your blogs. Here is our post: http://simplystatistics.org/2013/09/17/announcing-the-simply-statistics-unconference-on-the-future-of-statistics-futureofstats/ and the sign up page: https://plus.google.com/events/cd94ktf46i1hbi4mbqbbvvga358 We […]

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Two Announcements

September 17, 2013
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Two Announcements

A couple of announcements: First: A message from Jeff Leek: “We are hosting an “unconference” on Google Hangouts. We got some really amazing speakers to talk about the future of statistics. I wonder if you could help advertise the unconference on your blogs. Here is our post: http://simplystatistics.org/2013/09/17/announcing-the-simply-statistics-unconference-on-the-future-of-statistics-futureofstats/ and the sign up page: https://plus.google.com/events/cd94ktf46i1hbi4mbqbbvvga358 We […]

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The Wages of Philosophical Sin are Research Death

September 17, 2013
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The last post about Mayo’s Severity Principle got me thinking about that xkcd cartoon which generated so much hate-and-discontent among Frequentists. I didn’t care for it because all Frequentists can say in response is “we’re not that dumb”; ...

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Online conference for young statistics researchers

September 17, 2013
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Inspired by the Future of Statistical Sciences Workshop (an official event which will be full of middle-aged guys talking about the future), Jeff Leek and Roger Peng have organized a mini-conference in the form of a Google hangout featuring a bunch of youngsters. Seems like a good idea to me! Their particular focus will be […]The post Online conference for young statistics researchers appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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