A.Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference

May 28, 2013
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Today is (statistician) Allan Birnbaum’s birthday. He lived to be only 53 [i]. From the perspective of philosophy of statistics and philosophy of science, Birnbaum is best known for his work on likelihood, the Likelihood Principle [ii], and for his attempts to blend concepts of likelihood with error probability ideas to obtain what he called […]

More spam!

May 27, 2013
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I just got this one today: Dear Dr. Gelman, I am pleased to inform you that the ** team has identified your recent publication, “Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.” as being of special interest to the progress in the Psychology field. We would like to list your publication on our next edition of [...]The post More spam! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Annals of spam

May 27, 2013
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I received the following email, subject line “Want to Buy Text Link from andrewgelman.com”: Dear, I am Mary Taylor. I have started a link building campaign for my growing websites. For this, I need your cooperation. The campaign is quite diverse and large scale and if you take some time to understand it – it [...]The post Annals of spam appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Schloß Dagstuhl

May 27, 2013
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For many computer science researchers, the name Dagstuhl rings a bell. Anybody who has been there has fond memories of interesting talks, great conversations, and lots of social interaction (lubricated by the abundantly available wine and beer). But what is Dagstuhl? Schloß Dagstuhl is a castle in Germany’s Saarland region, close to the border with France. It’s easy to reach from nearly anywhere, and yet remote enough to keep people there…

Probability and Deity

May 26, 2013
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Our perception of chance affects our worldview There are many reasons that I am glad that I majored in Operations Research rather than mathematics or statistics. My view of the world has been affected by the OR way of thinking, … Continue reading →

Exploratory Data Analysis: Variations of Box Plots in R for Ozone Concentrations in New York City and Ozonopolis

Introduction Last week, I wrote the first post in a series on exploratory data analysis (EDA).  I began by calculating summary statistics on a univariate data set of ozone concentration in New York City in the built-in data set “airquality” in R.  In particular, I talked about how to calculate those statistics when the data […]

Schachtman: High, Higher, Highest Quality Research Act

May 26, 2013
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Since posting on the High Quality Research act a few weeks ago, I’ve been following it in the news, have received letters from professional committees (asking us to write letters), and now see that  Nathan A. Schachtman, Esq., PC posted the following on May 25, 2013 on his legal blog*: “The High Quality Research Act” (HQRA), […]

How to understand coefficients that reverse sign when you start controlling for things?

May 26, 2013
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Denis Cote writes: Just read this today and my unsophisticated statistical mind is confused. “Initial bivariate analyses suggest that union membership is actually associated with worse health. This association disappears when controlling for demographics, then reverses and becomes significant when controlling for labor market characteristics.” From my education about statistics, I remember to be suspicious [...]The post How to understand coefficients that reverse sign when you start controlling for things?…

More bubble sort tuning

May 26, 2013
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After last week's post bubble sort tuning I got an email from Berend Hasselman noting that my 'best' function did not protect against cases n<=2 and a speed improvement was possible. That made me realize that I should have been profiling t...

May 25, 2013
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Brad Efron wrote to me and posed an interesting statistical question: “Last Wednesday Diane Sawyer interviewed an Oklahoma woman who twice had had her home destroyed by a force-4 tornado. “A one in a hundred-trillion chance!” said Diane. ABC showed a nice map with the current storm’s track of destruction shaded in, about 18 miles […]

Point processes for eye movements: update

May 25, 2013
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We’ve just revised and re-arxived our manuscript on point processes for the analysis of eye movement data (joint work with Hans Trukenbrod & Ralf Engbert of the University of Potsdam, Felix Wichmann of the University of Tübingen). The main idea is that often one is interested mostly in where people have looked and why. Fixation […]

Managing research ideas

May 25, 2013
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I received this email today: Dear Professor Hyndman, I was wondering if you could maybe give me some advice on how to organize your research process. I am able to search the literature on a certain topic and identify where there is a question to work with. My main difficult is to organize my paper annotations in order to help me to guide my research process, i.e, how to manage…

Gelman sides w/ Neyman over Fisher in relation to a famous blow-up

May 25, 2013
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Andrew Gelman had said he would go back to explain why he sided with Neyman over Fisher in relation to a big, famous argument discussed on my Feb. 16, 2013 post: “Fisher and Neyman after anger management?”, and I just received an e-mail from Andrew saying that he has done so: “In which I side with Neyman […]

What is probabilistic truth? Part 2 – Everything is conditional

May 24, 2013
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Read Part 1 When making a statement of the form “1/2 is the correct probability that this coin will land tails”, there are a few things which are left unsaid, but which are typically implied. The statement is one about the probability of an unknown event occurring, and it would seem reasonable to write this […]

In which I side with Neyman over Fisher

May 24, 2013
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As a data analyst and a scientist, Fisher > Neyman, no question. But as a theorist, Fisher came up with ideas that worked just fine in his applications but can fall apart when people try to apply them too generally. Here’s an example that recently came up. Deborah Mayo pointed me to a comment by [...]The post In which I side with Neyman over Fisher appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

Turn off ODS when running simulations in SAS

May 24, 2013
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In my article "Simulation in SAS: The slow way or the BY way," I showed how to use BY-group processing rather than a macro loop in order to efficiently analyze simulated data with SAS. In the example, I analyzed the simulated data by using PROC MEANS, and I use the [...]

Simpson gets married (and divorced?)

May 24, 2013
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While I was waiting for my coffee this morning, I flipped through the newspapers on one of the tables in my local coffee place when my eye got caught by this article in The Times (I think to see the full article you need a subscription \$-\$ which I...

Understanding U.S hospital billing practices – part 1

May 23, 2013
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So unless you live here or aren't interested in healthcare (both equally valid excuses), the U.S. government just released Medicare costs and payments made by hospitals around the country. The New York Times subsequently published a number of articles ...

Generating a Markov chain vs. computing the transition matrix

May 23, 2013
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$h\times h$

A couple of days ago, we had a quick chat on Karl Broman‘s blog, about snakes and ladders (see http://kbroman.wordpress.com/…) with Karl and Corey (see http://bayesianbiologist.com/….), and the use of Markov Chain. I do believe that this application is truly awesome: the example is understandable by anyone, and computations (almost any kind, from what we’ve tried) are easy to perform. At the same time, some French students asked me specific details regarding…

Validation of Software for Bayesian Models Using Posterior Quantiles

May 23, 2013
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Every once in awhile I get a question that I can directly answer from my published research. When that happens it makes me so happy. Here’s an example. Patrick Lam wrote, Suppose one develops a Bayesian model to estimate a parameter theta. Now suppose one wants to evaluate the model via simulation by generating fake [...]The post Validation of Software for Bayesian Models Using Posterior Quantiles appeared first on Statistical…

Bayes Pharma 2013 (4)

May 23, 2013
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The conference is officially over and the breaking news is that I have managed to succeed where the lot in the picture right next to this miserably failed. Somehow they lost the bid to bring the world cup to London (beaten by Qatar!). [Royal]...

May 23, 2013
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Andrew Sullivan links to Maureen O'Connor (link) who picked up on Netflix's recent advertising pitch mischievously titled "Netflix adultery". Andrew highlighted this statistical result, with Maureen's interpretation, supposedly sourced from Netflix although I wasn't able to find the actual study. (I added the emphasis.) In a study of 2000 American adults, 12 percent confessed to watching ahead on TV shows they were supposed to save to watch with their partners.…

Bayes Pharma 2013 (3)

May 22, 2013
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Another very interesting day. The highlight of the morning was, in my opinion, David Ohlssen's talk. David is with Novartis US and has discussed a few issues related with subgroup analysis, pointing out the potential strengths of applying a Bayesian ap...