OK, people think I’m obsessive with a blog with a 6-month lag, but that’s nothing compared to some statistics conferences. Mylène Bédard sends this along for anyone who might be interested: The Bayesian Computation Section of ISBA is soliciting proposals to host its flagship conference: Bayes Comp 2022 The expectation is that the meeting will […]
That’s the title of a recent article by Yuling Yao, Aki Vehtari, Daniel Simpson, and myself, which presents some diagnostics for variational approximations to posterior inference: We were motivated to write this paper by the success/failure of ADVI, the automatic variational inference algorithm devised by Alp Kucukelbir et al. The success was that ADVI solved […]
The post Yes, but did it work? Evaluating variational inference appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
In a form of sympathetic magic, many built life-size replicas of airplanes out of straw and cut new military-style landing strips out of the jungle, hoping to attract more airplanes. – Wikipedia Twenty years ago, Geri Halliwell left the Spice Girls, so I’ve been thinking about Cargo Cults a lot. As an analogy for what […]
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(This is Dan) Last September, Jonah, Aki, Michael, Andrew and I wrote a paper on the role of visualization in the Bayesian workflow. This paper is going to be published as a discussion paper in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A and the associated read paper meeting (where we present the paper and […]
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So. Following up on our discussion of “the 80% power lie,” I was thinking about the implicit model underlying NIH’s 80% power rule. Several commenters pointed out that, to have your study design approved by NSF, it’s not required that you demonstrate that you have 80% power for real; what’s needed is to show 80% […]
Bayesians are frequentists. What I mean is, the Bayesian prior distribution corresponds to the frequentist sample space: it’s the set of problems for which a particular statistical model or procedure will be applied. I was thinking about this in the context of this question from Vlad Malik: I noticed this comment on Twitter in reference […]
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Leo Egidi shares his 2018 World Cup model, which he’s fitting in Stan. But I don’t like this: First, something’s missing. Where’s the U.S.?? More seriously, what’s with that “16.74%” thing? So bogus. You might as well say you’re 66.31 inches tall. Anyway, as is often the case with Bayesian models, the point here is […]
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What: A one-day event organized by France Mentre (IAME, INSERM, Univ SPC, Univ Paris 7, Univ Paris 13) and Julie Bertrand (INSERM) and sponsored by the International Society of Pharmacometrics (ISoP). When: Tuesday 24 July 2018 Where: Faculté Bichat, 16 rue Henri Huchard, 75018 Paris Free Registration: Registration is being handled by ISoP; please click […]
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Heather Kharouba et al. write: Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts in the phenologies of interacting species may lead to shifts in their synchrony, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences . . . We […]