Posts Tagged ‘ Bayesian statistics ’

House of stats

March 31, 2015
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House of stats

[This is a rather long joint post with Roberto Cerina and compounds our paper in the April 2015 issue of Significance]1. Prelude (kind-of unrelated to what follows). Last week, Marta and I finished watching the last series of House of Cards, the N...

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Regression: What’s it all about? [Bayesian and otherwise]

March 29, 2015
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Regression: What’s it all about? Regression plays three different roles in applied statistics: 1. A specification of the conditional expectation of y given x; 2. A generative model of the world; 3. A method for adjusting data to generalize from sample to population, or to perform causal inferences. We could also include prediction, but I […] The post Regression: What’s it all about? [Bayesian and otherwise] appeared first on Statistical…

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The publication of one of my pet ideas: Simulation-efficient shortest probability intervals

March 28, 2015
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In a paper to appear in Statistics and Computing, Ying Liu, Tian Zheng, and I write: Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) intervals can be estimated directly from simulations via empirical shortest intervals. Unfortunately, these can be noisy (that is, have a high Monte Carlo error). We derive an optimal weighting strategy using bootstrap and quadratic […] The post The publication of one of my pet ideas: Simulation-efficient shortest probability intervals…

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Adiabatic as I wanna be: Or, how is a chess rating like classical economics?

March 24, 2015
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Adiabatic as I wanna be:  Or, how is a chess rating like classical economics?

Chess ratings are all about change. Did your rating go up, did it go down, have you reached 2000, who’s hot, who’s not, and so on. If nobody’s abilities were changing, chess ratings would be boring, they’d be nothing but a noisy measure, and watching your rating change would be as exciting as watching a […] The post Adiabatic as I wanna be: Or, how is a chess rating like…

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Paul Meehl continues to be the boss

March 23, 2015
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Lee Sechrest writes: Here is a remarkable paper, not well known, by Paul Meehl. My research group is about to undertake a fresh discussion of it, which we do about every five or ten years. The paper is now more than a quarter of a century old but it is, I think, dramatically pertinent to […] The post Paul Meehl continues to be the boss appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Why I don’t use the terms “fixed” and “random” (again)

March 22, 2015
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A couple months ago we discussed this question from Sean de Hoon: In many cross-national comparative studies, mixed effects models are being used in which a number of slopes are fixed and the slopes of one or two variables of interested are allowed to vary across countries. The aim is often then to explain the […] The post Why I don’t use the terms “fixed” and “random” (again) appeared first…

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Bayesian models, causal inference, and time-varying exposures

March 20, 2015
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Mollie Wood writes: I am a doctoral student in clinical and population health research. My dissertation research is on prenatal medication exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes in children, and I’ve encountered a difficult problem that I hope you might be able to advise me on. I am working on a problem in which my main exposure […] The post Bayesian models, causal inference, and time-varying exposures appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Lying with statistics, CAM version

March 19, 2015
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Lying with statistics, CAM version

Full disclosure here: at one time I wanted to be a complementary and alternative (CAM) researcher. Or integrative, or whatever the cool kids call it these days. I thought that CAM research would yield positive fruit if they could just tighten up their ...

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Bayesian classics

March 17, 2015
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Bayesian classics

This week I’ll start my Bayesian Statistics master’s course at the Collegio Carlo Alberto. I realized that some of last year students got PhD positions in prestigious US universities. So I thought that letting this year’s students have a first grasp of some great Bayesian papers wouldn’t do harm. The idea is that in addition to the course, […]

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Interactive demonstrations for linear and Gaussian process regressions

March 7, 2015
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Interactive demonstrations for linear and Gaussian process regressions

Here’s a cool interactive demo of linear regression where you can grab the data points, move them around, and see the fitted regression line changing. There are various such apps around, but this one is particularly clean: (I’d like to credit the creator but I can’t find any attribution at the link, except that it’s […] The post Interactive demonstrations for linear and Gaussian process regressions appeared first on Statistical…

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