Posts Tagged ‘ Bayesian statistics ’

Gary Venter’s age-period-cohort decomposition of US male mortality trends

April 29, 2016
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Gary Venter’s age-period-cohort decomposition of US male mortality trends

Following up on yesterday’s post on mortality trends, I wanted to share with you a research note by actuary Gary Venter, “A Quick Look at Cohort Effects in US Male Mortality.” Venter produces this graph: And he writes: Cohort effects in mortality tend to be difficult to explain. Often strings of coincidences are invoked – […] The post Gary Venter’s age-period-cohort decomposition of US male mortality trends appeared first on…

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Lots of buzz regarding this postdoc position in London

April 29, 2016
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Lots of buzz regarding this postdoc position in London

Tom Churcher writes: We are currently advertising for an infectious disease modeller to investigate the impact of insecticide resistance on malaria control in Africa. The position is for 3 years in the first instance and is funded by the Wellcome Trust. No previous malaria or mosi experience required. Please circulate to anyone who might be […] The post Lots of buzz regarding this postdoc position in London appeared first on…

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What is the “true prior distribution”? A hard-nosed answer.

April 23, 2016
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The traditional answer is that the prior distribution represents your state of knowledge, that there is no “true” prior. Or, conversely, that the true prior is an expression of your beliefs, so that different statisticians can have different true priors. Or even that any prior is true by definition, in representing a subjective state of […] The post What is the “true prior distribution”? A hard-nosed answer. appeared first on…

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Stochastic natural-gradient EP

April 22, 2016
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Yee Whye Teh sends along this paper with Leonard Hasenclever, Thibaut Lienart, Sebastian Vollmer, Stefan Webb, Balaji Lakshminarayanan, and Charles Blundell. I haven’t read it in detail but they not similarities to our “expectation propaga...

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“if you add a few more variables, you can do a better job at predictions”

April 19, 2016
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Ethan Bolker points me to this news article by Neil Irwin: Robert J. Gordon, an economist at Northwestern University, has his own version that he argues explains inflation levels throughout recent decades. But it is hardly simple. Its prediction for inflation relies not just on joblessness but also on measures of productivity growth, six shifts […] The post “if you add a few more variables, you can do a better…

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David MacKay

April 18, 2016
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David MacKay

I learned from this comment that David MacKay has passed away. Here’s an obituary, which has a lot of information, really much more than I could give because I only met MacKay a couple of times. The first time was when I was in Cambridge, England, for a conference, and I got there a day […] The post David MacKay appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research

April 16, 2016
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The other day I happened to come across this paper that I wrote with Don Rubin in 1995. I really like it—it’s so judicious and mature, I can’t believe I wrote it over 20 years ago! Let this be a lesson to all of you that it’s possible to get somewhere by reasoning from first […] The post Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Bayesian Umpires: The coolest sports-statistics idea since the hot hand!

April 13, 2016
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Bayesian Umpires:  The coolest sports-statistics idea since the hot hand!

Hiro Minato points us to this recent article by Guy Molyneux: Baseball fans have long known, or at least suspected, that umpires call balls and strikes differently as the count changes. At 0-2, it seems that almost any taken pitch that is not right down the middle will be called a ball, while at 3-0 […] The post Bayesian Umpires: The coolest sports-statistics idea since the hot hand! appeared first…

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Why I don’t believe Fergus Simpson’s Big Alien Theory

April 12, 2016
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Why I don’t believe Fergus Simpson’s Big Alien Theory

It all began with this message from Christopher Bonnett: I’m a observational cosmologist and I am writing you as I think the following paper + article might be of interest for your blog. A fellow cosmologist, Fergus Simpson, has done a Bayesian analysis on the size of aliens, it has passed peer-review and has been […] The post Why I don’t believe Fergus Simpson’s Big Alien Theory appeared first on…

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Speak for yourself

April 9, 2016
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Speak for yourself

The scientific program is now FINAL, please check www.bayes-pharma.org for the detailed program.  CONFIRMED SPEAKERS:Greg Campbell, FDABayesian Statistics in Medical Device Clinical Trials: Great Progress and Some Challeng...

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