A couple of weeks ago, we've uploaded the new version of BCEA on CRAN, to include the function implementing our method for the computation of the EVPPI based on INLA-SPDE $-$ I've also already mentioned this here.While this is a stable versio...

This came up in an email exchange regarding a plan to come up with and evaluate Bayesian prediction algorithms for a medical application: I would not refer to the existing prediction algorithm as frequentist. Frequentist refers to the evaluation of statistical procedures but it doesn’t really say where the estimate or prediction comes from. Rather, […] The post Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

Dan Kahan writes: I know you are on 30-day delay, but since the blog version of you will be talking about Bayesian inference in couple of hours, you might like to look at paper by Turing, who is on 70-yr delay thanks to British declassification system, who addresses the utility of using likelihood ratios for […] The post New Alan Turing preprint on Arxiv! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

In response to the above question, Aki writes: I recommend as an easy default option real nu; nu ~ gamma(2,0.1); This was proposed and anlysed by Juárez and Steel (2010) (Model-based clustering of non-Gaussian panel data based on skew-t distributions. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 28, 52–66.). Juárez and Steel compere this to Jeffreys […] The post “Do we have any recommendations for priors for student_t’s degrees of freedom…

When I was a student at MIT, there was no statistics department. I took a statistics course from Stephan Morgenthaler and liked it. (I’d already taken probability and stochastic processes back at the University of Maryland; my instructor in the latter class was Prof. Grace Yang, who was super-nice. I couldn’t follow half of what […] The post My talk at MIT this Thursday appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

An interesting point came up recently. In the abstract to my psychology talk, I’d raised the question: If we can’t trust p-values, does experimental science involving human variation just have to start over? In the comments, Rahul wrote: Isn’t the qualifier about human variation redundant? If we cannot trust p-values we cannot trust p-values. My […] The post There’s something about humans appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Yesterday I spoke at the Princeton economics department. The title of my talk was: “Unbiasedness”: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. The talk went all right—people seemed ok with what I was saying—but I didn’t see a lot of audience involvement. It was a bit […] The post What I got wrong (and right) about econometrics and unbiasedness appeared first…