Posts Tagged ‘ Bayesian statistics ’

Trump +1 in Florida; or, a quick comment on that “5 groups analyze the same poll” exercise

September 23, 2016
By
Trump +1 in Florida; or, a quick comment on that “5 groups analyze the same poll” exercise

Nate Cohn at the New York Times arranged a comparative study on a recent Florida pre-election poll. He sent the raw data to four groups (Charles Franklin; Patrick Ruffini; Margie Omero, Robert Green, Adam Rosenblatt; and Sam Corbett-Davies, David Rothschild, and me) and asked each of us to analyze the data how we’d like to […] The post Trump +1 in Florida; or, a quick comment on that “5 groups…

Read more »

“Crimes Against Data”: My talk at Ohio State University this Thurs; “Solving Statistics Problems Using Stan”: My talk at the University of Michigan this Fri

September 21, 2016
By

Crimes Against Data Statistics has been described as the science of uncertainty. But, paradoxically, statistical methods are often used to create a sense of certainty where none should exist. The social sciences have been rocked in recent years by highly publicized claims, published in top journals, that were reported as “statistically significant” but are implausible […] The post “Crimes Against Data”: My talk at Ohio State University this Thurs; “Solving…

Read more »

FDA approval of generic drugs: The untold story

September 19, 2016
By
FDA approval of generic drugs:  The untold story

Someone writes in: I have MS and take a disease-modifying drug called Copaxone. Sandoz developed a generic version​ of Copaxone​ and filed for FDA approval. Teva, the manufacturer of Copaxone, filed a petition opposing that approval (surprise!). FDA rejected Teva’s petitions and approved the generic. Citizen_Petition_Denial_Letter_From_CDER_to_Teva_Pharmaceuticals My insurance company encouraged me to switch to the […] The post FDA approval of generic drugs: The untold story appeared first on Statistical…

Read more »

The fix

September 15, 2016
By
The fix

This is a very interesting post by Martyn Plummer on the JAGS News blog, describing how apparently silly details may make a world of difference. I think Martyn says he's now fixed the issue (basically, it appears that JAGS was sensitive to the order in...

Read more »

LGM 2016

September 15, 2016
By
LGM 2016

Yesterday I went to beautiful Bath for The Fifth Workshop on Bayesian Inference for Latent Gaussian Models with Applications and give a talk on our work on INLA-SPDE to compute the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information.&nbsp...

Read more »

Let’s play Twister, let’s play Risk

September 14, 2016
By
Let’s play Twister, let’s play Risk

Alex Terenin, Dan Simpson, and David Draper write: Some months ago we shared with you an arxiv draft of our paper, Asynchronous Distributed Gibbs Sampling.​ Through comments we’ve received, for which we’re highly grateful, we came to understand that (a) our convergence proof was wrong, and (b) we actually have two algorithms, one exact and […] The post Let’s play Twister, let’s play Risk appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

Solving Statistics Problems Using Stan (my talk at the NYC chapter of the American Statistical Association)

September 12, 2016
By

Here’s the announcement: Solving Statistics Problems Using Stan Stan is a free and open-source probabilistic programming language and Bayesian inference engine. In this talk, we demonstrate the use of Stan for some small fun problems and then discuss some open problems in Stan and in Bayesian computation and Bayesian inference more generally. It’s next Tues, […] The post Solving Statistics Problems Using Stan (my talk at the NYC chapter of…

Read more »

Bayesian Statistics Then and Now

September 12, 2016
By

I happened to recently reread this article of mine from 2010, and I absolutely love it. I don’t think it’s been read by many people—it was published as one of three discussions of an article by Brad Efron in Statistical Science—so I wanted to share it with you again here. This is the article where […] The post Bayesian Statistics Then and Now appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

Hypothesis Testing is a Bad Idea (my talk at Warwick, England, 2pm Thurs 15 Sept)

September 10, 2016
By

This is the conference, and here’s my talk (will do Google hangout, just as with my recent talks in Bern, Strasbourg, etc): Hypothesis Testing is a Bad Idea Through a series of examples, we consider problems with classical hypothesis testing, whether performed using classical p-values or confidence intervals, Bayes factors, or Bayesian inference using noninformative […] The post Hypothesis Testing is a Bad Idea (my talk at Warwick, England, 2pm…

Read more »

Q: “Is A 50-State Poll As Good As 50 State Polls?” A: Use Mister P.

September 9, 2016
By

Jeff Lax points to this post from Nate Silver and asks for my thoughts. In his post, Nate talks about data quality issues of national and state polls. It’s a good discussion, but the one thing he unfortunately doesn’t talk about is multilevel regression and poststratification (or see here for more). What you want to […] The post Q: “Is A 50-State Poll As Good As 50 State Polls?” A:…

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe