Posts Tagged ‘ Bayesian statistics ’

Sad night

August 26, 2016
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Sad night

I've just heard the very sad news that Richard Nixon has passed away this morning. I can't say I knew Richard very well, but I thought he really was a lovely guy and I am very saddened.I knew of him (among other things) through his work on covariate ad...

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Free workshop on Stan for pharmacometrics (Paris, 22 September 2016); preceded by (non-free) three day course on Stan for pharmacometrics

August 25, 2016
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So much for one post a day… Workshop: Stan for Pharmacometrics Day If you are interested in a free day of Stan for pharmacometrics in Paris on 22 September 2016, see the registration page: Stan for Pharmacometrics Day (free workshop) Julie Bertrand (statistical pharmacologist from Paris-Diderot and UCL) has finalized the program: When Who What […] The post Free workshop on Stan for pharmacometrics (Paris, 22 September 2016); preceded by…

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Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

August 24, 2016
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Hey pollsters!  Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

Alan Abramowitz writes: In five days, Clinton’s lead increased from 5 points to 12 points. And Democratic party ID margin increased from 3 points to 10 points. No, I don’t think millions of voters switched to the Democratic party. I think Democrats are were just more likely to respond in that second poll. And, remember, […] The post Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to…

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His varying slopes don’t seem to follow a normal distribution

August 24, 2016
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Bruce Doré writes: I have a question about multilevel modeling I’m hoping you can help with. What should one do when random effects coefficients are clearly not normally distributed (i.e., coef(lmer(y~x+(x|id))) )? Is this a sign that the model should be changed? Or can you stick with this model and infer that the assumption of […] The post His varying slopes don’t seem to follow a normal distribution appeared first…

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Bayesian inference completely solves the multiple comparisons problem

August 22, 2016
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Bayesian inference completely solves the multiple comparisons problem

I promised I wouldn’t do any new blogging until January but I’m here at this conference and someone asked me a question about the above slide from my talk. The point of the story in that slide is that flat priors consistently give bad inferences. Or, to put it another way, the routine use of […] The post Bayesian inference completely solves the multiple comparisons problem appeared first on Statistical…

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Taking Bayesian Inference Seriously [my talk tomorrow at Harvard conference on Big Data]

August 21, 2016
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Mon 22 Aug, 9:50am, at Harvard Science Center Hall A: Taking Bayesian Inference Seriously Over the years I have been moving toward the use of informative priors in more and more of my applications. I will discuss several examples from theory, application, and computing where traditional noninformative priors lead to disaster, but a little bit […] The post Taking Bayesian Inference Seriously [my talk tomorrow at Harvard conference on Big…

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What’s gonna happen in November?

August 17, 2016
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Nadia Hassan writes: 2016 may be strange with Trump. Do you have any thoughts on how people might go about modeling a strange election? When I asked you about predictability and updating election forecasts, you stated that models that rely on polls at different points should be designed to allow for surprises. You have touted […] The post What’s gonna happen in November? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Tax Day: The Birthday Dog That Didn’t Bark

August 15, 2016
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Tax Day:  The Birthday Dog That Didn’t Bark

Following up on Valentine’s Day and April Fools, a journalist was asking about April 15: Are there fewer babies born on Tax Day than on neighboring days? Let’s go to the data: These are data from 1968-1988 so it would certainly be interesting to see new data, but here’s what we got: – April 1st […] The post Tax Day: The Birthday Dog That Didn’t Bark appeared first on Statistical…

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Are stereotypes statistically accurate?

August 11, 2016
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Apparently there’s a debate in psychology about the accuracy of stereotypes. Lin Bian and Andrei Cimpian write: In his book Social Perception and Social Reality, Lee Jussim suggests that people’s beliefs about various groups (i.e., their stereotypes) are largely accurate. We unpack this claim using the distinction between generic and statistical beliefs—a distinction supported by […] The post Are stereotypes statistically accurate? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Boostrapping your posterior

August 9, 2016
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Demetri Spanos writes: I bumped into your paper with John Carlin, Beyond Power Calculations, and encountered your concept of the hypothetical replication of the point estimate. In my own work I have used a similarly structured (but for technical reasons, differently motivated) concept which I have informally been calling the “consensus posterior.” Specifically, supposing a […] The post Boostrapping your posterior appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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