Posts Tagged ‘ Bayesian statistics ’

Stan on the beach

May 27, 2016
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Stan on the beach

This came in the email one day: We have used the great software Stan to estimate bycatch levels of common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) in the Bay of Biscay from stranding data. We found that official estimates are underestimated by a full order of magnitude. We conducted both a prior and likelihood sensitivity analyses : the […] The post Stan on the beach appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Bayes 2016

May 23, 2016
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Bayes 2016

Earlier this week I was at the Bayes 2016 meeting, in lovely Leuven. Although I've been to Belgium quite a few times before, this was my first trip to Leuven $-$ somebody who used to work at UCL once told me that they didn't really like the place,...

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BCEA 2.2-3 is out

May 22, 2016
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I think the newest release of BCEA, our R package to standardise and post-process the output of a health economic model, is now available from CRAN $-$ in fact, the source code is also available here. The package is rather stable, so the...

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Nick and Nate and Mark on Leicester and Trump

May 20, 2016
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Just following up on our post the other day on retrospective evaluations of probabilistic predictions: For more on Leicester City, see Nick Goff on Why did bookmakers lose on Leicester? and What price SHOULD Leicester have been? (forwarded to me by commenter Iggy). For more on Trump, see Nate Silver on How I Acted Like […] The post Nick and Nate and Mark on Leicester and Trump appeared first on…

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Birthday analysis—Friday the 13th update, and some model checking

May 18, 2016
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Birthday analysis—Friday the 13th update, and some model checking

Carl Bialik and Andrew Flowers at fivethirtyeight.com (Nate Silver’s site) ran a story following up on our birthdays example—that time series decomposition of births by day, which is on the cover of the third edition of Bayesian Data Analysis using data from 1968-1988, and which then Aki redid using a new dataset from 2000-2014. Friday […] The post Birthday analysis—Friday the 13th update, and some model checking appeared first on…

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Is fraac Scott Adams?

May 17, 2016
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Is fraac Scott Adams?

tl;dr: If you value your time, don’t read this post. In favor of the fraac=Adams hypothesis: 1. Fraac came to our attention with a burst of comments on my 2011 post on Scott Adams and Charlie Sheen. Here’s fraac, defending Adams in a very Adams-like way: Besides the fact that fraac is one of the […] The post Is fraac Scott Adams? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Point summary of posterior simulations?

May 14, 2016
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Luke Miratrix writes: ​In the applied stats class ​I’m teaching ​on​ hierarchical models I’m giving the students (a mix of graduate students, many from the education school, and undergrads) a taste of Stan. I have to give them some “standard” way to turn Stan output into a point estimate (though of course I’ll also explain […] The post Point summary of posterior simulations? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Bill James does model checking

May 9, 2016
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Bill James does model checking

Regular readers will know that Bill James was one of my inspirations for becoming a statistician. I happened to be browsing through the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract the other day and came across this passage on Glenn Hubbard, who he ranks as the 88th best second baseman of all time: Total Baseball has Glenn […] The post Bill James does model checking appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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How to be Bayesian and spare yourself a dreadful afternoon with your stupid football team losing the derby

May 9, 2016
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How to be Bayesian and spare yourself a dreadful afternoon with your stupid football team losing the derby

Yesterday was the second-last game of the Italian Serie A; I've been a Sampdoria supported since I was 12 $-$ at that time, they were starting to become one of the best clubs in Serie A (and that was back in the 80's when Serie A was arguably the best ...

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Gary Venter’s age-period-cohort decomposition of US male mortality trends

April 29, 2016
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Gary Venter’s age-period-cohort decomposition of US male mortality trends

Following up on yesterday’s post on mortality trends, I wanted to share with you a research note by actuary Gary Venter, “A Quick Look at Cohort Effects in US Male Mortality.” Venter produces this graph: And he writes: Cohort effects in mortality tend to be difficult to explain. Often strings of coincidences are invoked – […] The post Gary Venter’s age-period-cohort decomposition of US male mortality trends appeared first on…

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