Posts Tagged ‘ Bayesian statistics ’

“How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry”

September 22, 2014
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David Rothschild (coauthor of the Xbox study, the Mythical Swing Voter paper, and of course the notorious Aapor note) will be speaking Friday 10 Oct in the Economics and Big Data meetup in NYC. His title: “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry: information aggregation using non-representative polling data.” Should be fun! P.P.S. […] The post “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry” appeared first on…

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Mini-tour

September 19, 2014
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Mini-tour

The last two days have been kind of a very interesting mini-tour for me $-$ yesterday the Symposium that we organised at UCL (the picture on the left is not a photo taken yesterday) and today the workshop on efficient methods for value of inf...

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BCEA 2.1

September 17, 2014
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BCEA 2.1

We're about to release the new version of BCEA, which will contain some major changes.A couple of changes in the basic code that should improve the computational speed. In general, BCEA doesn't really run into troubles because most of the computations ...

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What do you do to visualize uncertainty?

September 17, 2014
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Howard Wainer writes: What do you do to visualize uncertainty? Do you only use static methods (e.g. error bounds)? Or do you also make use of dynamic means (e.g. have the display vary over time proportional to the error, so you don’t know exactly where the top of the bar is, since it moves while […] The post What do you do to visualize uncertainty? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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More bad news for the buggy-whip manufacturers

September 15, 2014
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More bad news for the buggy-whip manufacturers

In a news article regarding difficulties in using panel surveys to measure the unemployment rate, David Leonhardt writes: The main factor is technology. It’s a major cause of today’s response-rate problems – but it’s also the solution. For decades, survey research has revolved around the telephone, and it’s worked very well. But Americans’ relationship with […] The post More bad news for the buggy-whip manufacturers appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Bayesian Cognitive Modeling  Examples Ported to Stan

September 11, 2014
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Bayesian Cognitive Modeling  Examples Ported to Stan

There’s a new intro to Bayes in town. Michael Lee and Eric-Jan Wagenmaker. 2014. Bayesian Cognitive Modeling: A Practical Course. Cambridge Uni. Press. This book’s a wonderful introduction to applied Bayesian modeling. But don’t take my word for it — you can download and read the first two parts of the book (hundreds of pages […] The post Bayesian Cognitive Modeling  Examples Ported to Stan appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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My talk at the Simons Foundation this Wed 5pm

September 8, 2014
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Anti-Abortion Democrats, Jimmy Carter Republicans, and the Missing Leap Day Babies: Living with Uncertainty but Still Learning To learn about the human world, we should accept uncertainty and embrace variation. We illustrate this concept with various examples from our recent research (the above examples are with Yair Ghitza and Aki Vehtari) and discuss more generally […] The post My talk at the Simons Foundation this Wed 5pm appeared first on…

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Likelihood from quantiles?

September 7, 2014
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Michael McLaughlin writes: Many observers, esp. engineers, have a tendency to record their observations as {quantile, CDF} pairs, e.g., x CDF(x) 3.2 0.26 4.7 0.39 etc. I suspect that their intent is to do some kind of “least-squares” analysis by computing theoretical CDFs from a model, e.g. Gamma(a, b), then regressing the observed CDFs against […] The post Likelihood from quantiles? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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No surprises

September 4, 2014
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Yesterday was the day of my talk at the RSS Conference. As I mentioned here, I hadn't been back to Sheffield for nearly 20 years, so it is really no no surprise that I found it reeeeally (I mean: really) changed. In fact, I think I'm being a victim of ...

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Questions about “Too Good to Be True”

September 2, 2014
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Greg Won writes: I manage a team tasked with, among other things, analyzing data on Air Traffic operations to identify factors that may be associated with elevated risk. I think its fair to characterize our work as “data mining” (e.g., using rule induction, Bayesian, and statistical methods). One of my colleagues sent me a link […] The post Questions about “Too Good to Be True” appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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