Posts Tagged ‘ Bayesian statistics ’

Mixture models in Stan: you can use log_mix()

August 21, 2017
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Mixture models in Stan:  you can use log_mix()

From the Stan manual: log_mix() . . . I like it. Super-clean. The post Mixture models in Stan: you can use log_mix() appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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It is somewhat paradoxical that good stories tend to be anomalous, given that when it comes to statistical data, we generally want what is typical, not what is surprising. Our resolution of this paradox is . . .

August 18, 2017
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From a blog comment a few years ago regarding an article by Robert Kosara: As Thomas and I discuss in our paper [When Do Stories Work? Evidence and Illustration in the Social Sciences], it is somewhat paradoxical that good stories tend to be anomalous, given that when it comes to statistical data, we generally want […] The post It is somewhat paradoxical that good stories tend to be anomalous, given…

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Bigshot statistician keeps publishing papers with errors; is there anything we can do to get him to stop???

August 10, 2017
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Bigshot statistician keeps publishing papers with errors; is there anything we can do to get him to stop???

OK, here’s a paper with a true theorem but then some false corollaries. First the theorem: The above is actually ok. It’s all true. But then a few pages later comes the false statement: This is just wrong, for two reasons. First, the relevant reference distribution is discrete uniform, not continuous uniform, so the normal […] The post Bigshot statistician keeps publishing papers with errors; is there anything we can…

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“This finding did not reach statistical sig­nificance, but it indicates a 94.6% prob­ability that statins were responsible for the symptoms.”

August 6, 2017
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Charles Jackson writes: The attached item from JAMA, which I came across in my doctor’s waiting room, contains the statements: Nineteen of 203 patients treated with statins and 10 of 217 patients treated with placebo met the study definition of myalgia (9.4% vs 4.6%. P = .054). This finding did not reach statistical sig­nificance, but […] The post “This finding did not reach statistical sig­nificance, but it indicates a 94.6%…

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Seemingly intuitive and low math intros to Bayes never seem to deliver as hoped: Why?

August 2, 2017
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This post was prompted by recent nicely done videos by Rasmus Baath that provide an intuitive and low math introduction to Bayesian material. Now, I do not know that these have delivered less than he hoped for. Nor I have asked him. However, given similar material I and others have tried out in the past that […] The post Seemingly intuitive and low math intros to Bayes never seem to deliver…

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Picky people (2)

July 28, 2017
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I've complained here about the fonts for some parts of the computer code in our book . Eva (our publisher) has picked up on this and has been brilliant and very quick in trying to fix the issue. I think they will update the fonts so that at l...

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Announcement: ESRC funded conference: Bayesian Data Analysis in the Social Sciences Curriculum (29th Sept 2017)

July 27, 2017
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Announcement: ESRC funded conference: Bayesian Data Analysis in the Social Sciences Curriculum (29th Sept 2017)

I am pleased to announce booking is now open for the end of Prior Exposure grant conference on Bayesian Data Analysis in the Social Sciences Curriculum on 29th September. We are still finalising the programme but have confirmed contributions from&...

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Died in the Wool

July 26, 2017
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Garrett M. writes: I’m an analyst at an investment management firm. I read your blog daily to improve my understanding of statistics, as it’s central to the work I do. I had two (hopefully straightforward) questions related to time series analysis that I was hoping I could get your thoughts on: First, much of the […] The post Died in the Wool appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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“Bayes factor”: where the term came from, and some references to why I generally hate it

July 21, 2017
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Someone asked: Do you know when this term was coined or by whom? Kass and Raftery’s use of the tem as the title of their 1995 paper suggests that it was still novel then, but I have not noticed in the paper any information about where it started. I replied: According to Etz and Wagenmakers […] The post “Bayes factor”: where the term came from, and some references to why…

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Short course on Bayesian data analysis and Stan 23-25 Aug in NYC!

July 19, 2017
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Jonah “ShinyStan” Gabry, Mike “Riemannian NUTS” Betancourt, and I will be giving a three-day short course next month in New York, following the model of our successful courses in 2015 and 2016. Before class everyone should install R, RStudio and RStan on their computers. (If you already have these, please update to the latest version […] The post Short course on Bayesian data analysis and Stan 23-25 Aug in NYC!…

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