# Posts Tagged ‘ Bayesian statistics ’

## Comparing Waic (or loo, or any other predictive error measure)

October 3, 2015
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Ed Green writes: I have fitted 5 models in Stan and computed WAIC and its standard error for each. The standard errors are all roughly the same (all between 209 and 213). If WAIC_1 is within one standard error (of WAIC_1) of WAIC_2, is it fair to say that WAIC is inconclusive? My reply: No, […] The post Comparing Waic (or loo, or any other predictive error measure) appeared first…

## Stan PK/PD Tutorial at the American Conference on Pharmacometrics, 8 Oct 2015

October 2, 2015
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Bill Gillespie, of Metrum, is giving a tutorial next week at ACoP: Getting Started with Bayesian PK/PD Modeling Using Stan: Practical use of Stan and R for PK/PD applications Thursday 8 October 2015, 8 AM — 5 PM, Crystal City, VA This is super cool for us, because Bill’s not one of our core developers […] The post Stan PK/PD Tutorial at the American Conference on Pharmacometrics, 8 Oct 2015…

## Solution to Stan Puzzle 1: Inferring Ability from Streaks

October 2, 2015
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$Solution to Stan Puzzle 1: Inferring Ability from Streaks$

If you missed it the first time around, here’s a link to: Stan Puzzle 1: Inferring Ability from Streaks First, a hat-tip to Mike, who posted the correct answer as a comment. So as not to spoil the surprise for everyone else, Michael Betancourt (different Mike), emailed me the answer right away (as he always […] The post Solution to Stan Puzzle 1: Inferring Ability from Streaks appeared first on…

## Two PLOS Two

September 29, 2015
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Cosetta Minelli and I have just published an editorial on PLOS Medicine on the use of the value of information, with particular reference to risk prediction modelling. We had proposed the topic to the journal, thinking that they may not even ...

## How to use lasso etc. in political science?

September 29, 2015
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Tom Swartz writes: I am a graduate student at Oxford with a background in economics and on the side am teaching myself more statistics and machine learning. I’ve been following your blog for some time and recently came across this post on lasso. In particular, the more I read about the machine learning community, the […] The post How to use lasso etc. in political science? appeared first on Statistical…

## Fitting models with discrete parameters in Stan

September 28, 2015
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This book, “Bayesian Cognitive Modeling: A Practical Course,” by Michael Lee and E. J. Wagenmakers, has a bunch of examples of Stan models with discrete parameters—mixture models of various sorts—with Stan code written by Martin...

## Stan Puzzle #1: Inferring Ability from Streaks

September 25, 2015
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$Stan Puzzle #1: Inferring Ability from Streaks$

Inspired by X’s blog’s Le Monde puzzle entries, I have a little Stan coding puzzle for everyone (though you can solve the probabilty part of the coding problem without actually knowing Stan). This almost (heavy emphasis on “almost” there) makes me wish I was writing exams. Puzzle #1: Inferring Ability from Streaks Suppose a player […] The post Stan Puzzle #1: Inferring Ability from Streaks appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## My compliments

September 23, 2015
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I've been told of a nice review of BMHE in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, by Patrick Graham. I was very pleased by the review. Particularly about a couple of bits. One, for example, saysA general strength of the book is its ancho...

## Roller poster

September 23, 2015
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Last week, Anna was at the "Autumn Meeting on Latent Gaussian Models" in Trondheim (Norway), where she presented our work on using INLA to estimate the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information (EVPPI) in health economic evaluation (here'...

## PK/PD Talk with Stan — Thu 8 Oct, 10:30 AM at Columbia: Improved confidence intervals and p-values by sampling from the normalized likelihood

September 22, 2015
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Sebastian Ueckert and France Mentré are swinging by to visit the Stan team at Columbia and Sebastian’s presenting the following talk, to which everyone is invited. Improved confidence intervals and p-values by sampling from the normalized likelihood Sebastian Ueckert (1,2), Marie-Karelle Riviere (1), France Mentré (1) (1) IAME, UMR 1137, INSERM and University Paris Diderot, […] The post PK/PD Talk with Stan — Thu 8 Oct, 10:30 AM at Columbia:…