Posts Tagged ‘ Bayesian statistics ’

Why I think the top batting average will be higher than .311: Over-pooling of point predictions in Bayesian inference

October 19, 2017
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In a post from 22 May 2017 entitled, “Who is Going to Win the Batting Crown?”, Jim Albert writes: At this point in the season, folks are interested in extreme stats and want to predict final season measures. On the morning of Saturday May 20, here are the leading batting averages: Justin Turner .379 Ryan […] The post Why I think the top batting average will be higher than .311:…

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No tradeoff between regularization and discovery

October 18, 2017
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We had a couple recent discussions regarding questionable claims based on p-values extracted from forking paths, and in both cases (a study “trying large numbers of combinations of otherwise-unused drugs against a large number of untreatable illnesses,” and a salami-slicing exercise looking for public opinion changes in subgroups of the population), I recommended fitting a […] The post No tradeoff between regularization and discovery appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Baseball, apple pie, and Stan

October 16, 2017
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Ben sends along these two baseball job ads that mention experience with Stan as a preferred qualification: St. Louis Cardinals Baseball Development Analyst Tampa Bay Rays Baseball Research and Development Analyst The post Baseball, apple pie, and Stan ...

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“Bayesian evidence synthesis”

October 15, 2017
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Donny Williams writes: My colleagues and I have a paper recently accepted in the journal Psychological Science in which we “bang” on Bayes factors. We explicitly show how the Bayes factor varies according to tau (I thought you might find this interesting for yourself and your blog’s readers). There is also a very nice figure. […] The post “Bayesian evidence synthesis” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Mick Cooney: case study on modeling loss curves in insurance with RStan

October 14, 2017
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This is great. Thanks, Mick! All the Stan case studies are here. The post Mick Cooney: case study on modeling loss curves in insurance with RStan appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Partial pooling with informative priors on the hierarchical variance parameters: The next frontier in multilevel modeling

October 11, 2017
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Ed Vul writes: In the course of tinkering with someone else’s hairy dataset with a great many candidate explanatory variables (some of which are largely orthogonal factors, but the ones of most interest are competing “binning” schemes of the same latent elements). I wondered about the following “model selection” strategy, which you may have alluded […] The post Partial pooling with informative priors on the hierarchical variance parameters: The next…

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Splines in Stan; Spatial Models in Stan !

October 10, 2017
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Splines in Stan; Spatial Models in Stan !

Two case studies: Splines in Stan, by Milad Kharratzadeh. Spatial Models in Stan: Intrinsic Auto-Regressive Models for Areal Data, by Mitzi Morris. This is great. Thanks, Mitzi! Thanks, Milad! The post Splines in Stan; Spatial Models in Stan ! appea...

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[summer Astrostat school] room with a view [jatp]

October 9, 2017
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[summer Astrostat school] room with a view [jatp]

I just arrived in Autrans, on the Plateau du Vercors overlooking Grenoble and the view is fabulistic! Trees have started to turn red and yellow, the weather is very mild, and my duties are restricted to teaching ABC to a group of enthusiastic astronomers and cosmologists..! Second advanced course on ABC in the mountains this […]

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The house is stronger than the foundations

October 9, 2017
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Oliver Maclaren writes: Regarding the whole ‘double use of data’ issue with posterior predictive checks [see here and, for a longer discussion, here], I just wanted to note that David Cox describes the ‘Fisherian reduction’ as (I’ve summarised slightly; see p. 24 of ‘Principles of Statistical Inference) – Find the likelihood function – Reduce to […] The post The house is stronger than the foundations appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Summer school in Leuven

October 9, 2017
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Summer school in Leuven

Emmanuel has organised earlier this year the first edition of the Summer School on Advanced Bayesian Methods, in the beautiful Belgian town of Leuven (which is also where we had our Bayes conference a couple of years ago).For next year, they have ...

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