Posts Tagged ‘ Bayesian statistics ’

Stan World Cup update

July 15, 2014
By
Stan World Cup update

The other day I fit a simple model to estimate team abilities from World Cup outcomes. I fit the model to the signed square roots of the score differentials, using the square root on the theory that when the game is less close, it becomes more variable. 0. Background As you might recall, the estimated […] The post Stan World Cup update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Read more »

Stan goes to the World Cup

July 13, 2014
By
Stan goes to the World Cup

I thought it would be fun to fit a simple model in Stan to estimate the abilities of the teams in the World Cup, then I could post everything here on the blog, the whole story of the analysis from beginning to end, showing the results of spending a couple hours on a data analysis. […] The post Stan goes to the World Cup appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

Chicago alert: Mister P and Stan to be interviewed on WBEZ today (Fri) 3:15pm

July 10, 2014
By
Chicago alert:  Mister P and Stan to be interviewed on WBEZ today (Fri) 3:15pm

Niala Boodho on the Afternoon Shift will be interviewing Yair and me about our age-period-cohort extravaganza which became widely-known after being featured in this cool interactive graph by Amanda Cox in the New York Times. And here’s the interview. The actual paper is called The Great Society, Reagan’s revolution, and generations of presidential voting and […] The post Chicago alert: Mister P and Stan to be interviewed on WBEZ today…

Read more »

“P.S. Is anyone working on hierarchical survival models?”

July 9, 2014
By

Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes: I’m working on building a predictive model (not causal) of the onset of diabetes mellitus using electronic medical records from a semi-panel of HMO patients. The dependent variable is blood glucose level. The unit of analysis is the patient visit to a network doctor or hospitalization in a […] The post “P.S. Is anyone working on hierarchical survival models?” appeared first on Statistical…

Read more »

The Oracle (8) – let’s go all the way!

July 7, 2014
By

This is (may be) the final post in the series dedicated to the prediction of the World Cup results $-$ I'll try and actually write another to wrap things up and summarise a few comments, but this will probably be a bit later on. Finally, we've decided ...

Read more »

“Bayes Data Analysis – Author Needed”

July 7, 2014
By

The following item came in over the Bayes email list: Hi, My name is Jo Fitzpatrick and I work as an Acquisition Editor for Packt Publishing ( www.packtpub.com ). We recently commissioned a book on Bayesian Data Analysis and I’m currently searching for an author to write this book. You need to have good working […] The post “Bayes Data Analysis – Author Needed” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

Dimensionless analysis as applied to swimming!

July 4, 2014
By
Dimensionless analysis as applied to swimming!

We have no fireworks-related posts for July 4th but at least we have an item that’s appropriate for the summer weather. It comes from Daniel Lakeland, who writes: Recently in one of your blog posts (“priors I don’t believe”) there was a discussion in which I was advocating the use of dimensional analysis and dimensionless […] The post Dimensionless analysis as applied to swimming! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

“The great advantage of the model-based over the ad hoc approach, it seems to me, is that at any given time we know what we are doing.”

July 3, 2014
By

The quote is from George Box, 1979. And this: Please can Data Analysts get themselves together again and become whole Statisticians before it is too late? Before they, their employers, and their clients forget the other equally important parts of the job statisticians should be doing, such as designing investigations and building models? I actually […] The post “The great advantage of the model-based over the ad hoc approach, it…

Read more »

The Oracle (7)

July 3, 2014
By
The Oracle (7)

We're now down to 8 teams left in the World Cup. Interestingly, despite a pretty disappointing display by some of the (more or less rightly so) highly rated teams, such as Spain, Italy, Portugal or England, European sides are exactly 50% of the lot. Gi...

Read more »

“Being an informed Bayesian: Assessing prior informativeness and prior–likelihood conflict”

July 2, 2014
By

Xiao-Li Meng sends along this paper (coauthored with Matthew Reimherr and Dan Nicolae), which begins: Dramatically expanded routine adoption of the Bayesian approach has substantially increased the need to assess both the confirmatory and contradictory information in our prior distribution with regard to the information provided by our likelihood function. We propose a diagnostic approach […] The post “Being an informed Bayesian: Assessing prior informativeness and prior–likelihood conflict” appeared first…

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe