Posts Tagged ‘ False positive ’

Visible and invisible errors, and the nefarious power of suggestion

December 20, 2017
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Visible and invisible errors, and the nefarious power of suggestion

Kaiser Fung, founder of Applied Analytics at Columbia University and Principal Analytics Prep, the premier data analytics bootcamp from Harvard Business School Startup Studio, discusses how a software vendor uses the power of suggestion to seduce users into believing the accuracy of predictive analytics; and how such a tactic got exposed by the visibility of errors.

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Overselling predictive models (Hint: future performance matters)

December 18, 2017
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Kaiser Fung, author of Numbersense and founder of Principal Analytics Prep, discusses the rejection of a predictive model used to find vulnerable children at risk for child abuse in Chicago.

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A/B Testing Primer and the DEED framework

November 14, 2017
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Kaiser Fung, founder of Principal Analytics Prep and the Master of Science in Applied Analytics at Columbia, gives a short lecture on A/B testing for Harvard Business Review on Facebook Live.

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A/B Testing Primer and the DEED framework

November 14, 2017
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Kaiser Fung, founder of Principal Analytics Prep and the Master of Science in Applied Analytics at Columbia, gives a short lecture on A/B testing for Harvard Business Review on Facebook Live.

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My letter to the New York Times is published

November 6, 2017
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Kaiser Fung, founder of Principal Analytics Prep and author of Numbersense, reacts to the New York TImes Magazine article on Amy Cuddy and the power pose research program. He offers a guide to the controversy around the interpretation of data in social psychology experiments.

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Inspired by water leaks

December 19, 2016
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Inspired by water leaks

For me, 2016 is a year of water leaks. I was forced to move apartments during the summer. (Blame my old landlord for the lower frequency of posts this year!) That old apartment was overrun by water issues. In the past four years, there were two big leaks in addition to annual visible "seepage" in the ceiling. The first big leak ruined my first night back from Hurricane Sandy-induced evacuation.…

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Reader’s Guide to the Power Pose Controversy 3

November 2, 2016
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This is the third and final post about the controversy over statistical analysis used in peer-reviewed published scholarly research. Most of the new stuff are covered in post #2 (link). Today's post covers statistical issues related to sample size, which is nothing new, but it was mentioned in Amy Cuddy's response to her critics and thus I also discuss it here. In post #2 (link), I offer the following mental…

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Reader’s guide to the power pose controversy 2

October 21, 2016
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Yesterday, I started a series of posts covering the "power pose" research controversy. The plan is as follows: Key Idea 1: Peer Review, Manuscripts, Pop Science and TED Talks Key Idea 2: P < 0.05, P-hacking, Replication Studies, Pre-registration Key Idea 3: Negative Studies, and the File Drawer (Today) Key Idea 4: Degrees of Freedom, and the Garden of Forking Paths Key Idea 5: Sample Size Here is a quick…

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Two quick hits: how bad data analysis harms our discourse

October 6, 2016
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I am traveling so have to make this brief. I will likely come back to these stories in the future to give a longer version of these comments. I want to react to two news items that came out in the past couple of days. First, Ben Stiller said that prostate cancer screening (the infamous PSA test) "saved his life". (link) So he is out there singing the praises of…

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Two figures on the accuracy of polygraphs as lie detectors.

September 2, 2016
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Two figures on the accuracy of polygraphs as lie detectors.

Here's a pair of figures from a 2003 report by the National Academies 'Committee to Review the Scientific Evidence on the Polygraph' (full text), which includes several well-known statisticians. The figure below shows the sensitivity versus false-positive rate for 52 controlled laboratory studies of naive examinees, untrained in polygraph countermeasures. Each study examinee was assigned … Continue reading Two figures on the accuracy of polygraphs as lie detectors. →

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