Posts Tagged ‘ statistics ’

The answer is e, what was the question?!

February 11, 2016
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The answer is e, what was the question?!

A rather exotic question on X validated: since π can be approximated by random sampling over a unit square, is there an equivalent for approximating e? This is an interesting question, as, indeed, why not focus on e rather than π after all?! But very quickly the very artificiality of the problem comes back to […]

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Trends and Opportunities in Data Analysis

February 11, 2016
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Trends and Opportunities in Data Analysis

Andy Warhol said “In the future, everyone will be world-famous for 15 minutes.” Here’s my 15 seconds of fame, a soundbite from the IBM Insight conference last year. My comments start at 1:30. In a nutshell, I predict that data analyt...

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La guerre des étoiles : distinguer le signal du bruit

February 10, 2016
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La guerre des étoiles : distinguer le signal du bruit

La grande difficulté dans la modélisation et la construction de modèles prédictifs est de réussir à distinguer le signal et le bruit (pour reprendre le titre du classique de Nate Silver). La réponse statistique est la notion de significativité, et la recherche des ‘étoiles’ dans les sorties de régression. Avec l’explosion du nombre de données, il est devenu crucial de faire cette distinction, de savoir quelles sont les interactions qui…

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Finding the K in K-means by Parametric Bootstrap

February 9, 2016
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Finding the K in K-means by Parametric Bootstrap

One of the trickier tasks in clustering is determining the appropriate number of clusters. Domain-specific knowledge is always best, when you have it, but there are a number of heuristics for getting at the likely number of clusters in your data. We cover a few of them in Chapter 8 (available as a free sample … Continue reading Finding the K in K-means by Parametric Bootstrap

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Posterior Update of Bayes@Lund 2016

February 9, 2016
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Posterior Update of Bayes@Lund 2016

For the third year round I and Ullrika Sahlin arranged Bayes@Lund, a mini-conference bringing together researchers interested in or working with Bayesian methods in and around Sweden. This year we were thrilled to have over 70 attendees, both from ne...

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Neglected optimization topic: set diversity

February 8, 2016
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Neglected optimization topic: set diversity

The mathematical concept of set diversity is a somewhat neglected topic in current applied decision sciences and optimization. We take this opportunity to discuss the issue. The problem Consider the following problem: for a number of items U = {x_1, … x_n} pick a small set of them X = {x_i1, x_i2, ..., x_ik} such … Continue reading Neglected optimization topic: set diversity

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Connection between hypergeometric distribution and series

February 8, 2016
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Connection between hypergeometric distribution and series

What’s the connection between the hypergeometric distributions, hypergeometric functions, and hypergeometric series? The hypergeometric distribution is a probability distribution with parameters N, M, and n. Suppose you have an urn containing N balls, M red and the rest, N – M blue and you select n balls at a time. The hypergeometric distribution gives the probability of selecting k red balls. The probability generating function […]

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Free video course: applied Bayesian A/B testing in R

February 4, 2016
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Free  video course: applied Bayesian A/B testing in R

As a “thank you” to our blog, mailing list, and Twitter followers (@WinVectorLLC) we at Win-Vector LLC have decided to re-release our formerly fee-based A/B testing video course as a free (advertisement supported) video course here on Youtube. The course emphasizes how to design A/B tests using prior “guestimates” of effect sizes (often you have … Continue reading Free video course: applied Bayesian A/B testing in R

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optimal simulation on a convex set

February 3, 2016
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optimal simulation on a convex set

This morning, we had a jam session at the maths department of Paris-Dauphine where a few researchers & colleagues of mine presented their field of research to the whole department. Very interesting despite or thanks to the variety of topics, with forays into the three-body problem(s) [and Poincaré‘s mistake], mean fields for Nash equilibrium (or […]

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Philosophy-laden meta-statistics: Is “technical activism” free of statistical philosophy? (ii)

February 3, 2016
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Philosophy-laden meta-statistics: Is “technical activism” free of statistical philosophy? (ii)

  Ben Goldacre (of Bad Science), in a Nature article today (“Make Journals Report Clinical Trials Properly“), expresses puzzlement as to why bad statistical practices– “selective publication, inadequate descriptions of study methods that block efforts at replication, and data dredging through undisclosed use of multiple analytical strategies“–are continuing to occur even in the face of […]

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