Posts Tagged ‘ statistics ’

Le Monde puzzle [#905]

March 31, 2015
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Le Monde puzzle [#905]

A recursive programming  Le Monde mathematical puzzle: Given n tokens with 10≤n≤25, Alice and Bob play the following game: the first player draws an integer1≤m≤6 at random. This player can then take 1≤r≤min(2m,n) tokens. The next player is then free to take 1≤s≤min(2r,n-r) tokens. The player taking the last tokens is the winner. There is […]

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Learning to teach statistics, in a MOOC

March 31, 2015
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Learning to teach statistics, in a MOOC

I am participating in a MOOC, Teaching statistics through data investigations. A MOOC is a fancy name for an online, free, correspondence course.  The letters stand for Massive Open Online Course. I decided to enrol for several reasons. First I … Continue reading →

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Bayes factors vs p-values

March 31, 2015
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Bayesian analysis and Frequentist analysis often lead to the same conclusions by different routes. But sometimes the two forms of analysis lead to starkly different conclusions. The following illustration of this difference comes from a talk by Luis Pericci last week. He attributes the example to “Bernardo (2010)” though I have not been able to find the exact […]

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MCMskv, Lenzerheide, Jan. 5-7, 2016

March 30, 2015
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MCMskv, Lenzerheide, Jan. 5-7, 2016

Following the highly successful [authorised opinion!, from objective sources] MCMski IV, in Chamonix last year, the BayesComp section of ISBA has decided in favour of a two-year period, which means the great item of news that next year we will meet again for MCMski V [or MCMskv for short], this time on the snowy slopes […]

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Pros and cons of the term “data science”

March 30, 2015
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I’ve resisted using the term “data science,” and enjoy poking fun at it now and then, but I’ve decided it’s not such a bad label after all. Here are some of the pros and cons of the term. (Listing “cons” first seems backward, but I’m currently leaning toward the pro side, so I thought I […]

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intuition beyond a Beta property

March 29, 2015
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intuition beyond a Beta property

A self-study question on X validated exposed an interesting property of the Beta distribution: If x is B(n,m) and y is B(n+½,m) then √xy is B(2n,2m) While this can presumably be established by a mere change of variables, I could not carry the derivation till the end and used instead the moment generating function E[(XY)s/2] […]

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The TES Challenge to Greg Francis

March 29, 2015
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This post is a follow-up to my previous post, “Statistical alchemy and the 'test for excess significance'”. In the comments on that post, Greg Francis objected to my points about the Test for Excess Significance. I laid out a challenge in which I would use simulation to demonstrate these points. Greg Francis agreed to the details; this post is about the results of the simulations (with links to the code,…

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Your (very own) personalized genomic prediction varies depending on who else was around?

March 29, 2015
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Your (very own) personalized genomic prediction varies depending on who else was around?

As if I wasn’t skeptical enough about personalized predictions based on genomic signatures, Jeff Leek recently had a surprising post about a “A surprisingly tricky issue when using genomic signatures for personalized medicine“.  Leek (on his blog Simply Statistics) writes: My student Prasad Patil has a really nice paper that just came out in Bioinformatics (preprint in case paywalled). […]

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Two things to stop saying about null hypotheses

March 28, 2015
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Two things to stop saying about null hypotheses

There is a currently fashionable way of describing Bayes factors that resonates with experimental psychologists. I hear it often, particularly as a way to describe a particular use of Bayes factors. For example, one might say, “I needed to prove the null, so I used a Bayes factor,” or “Bayes factors are great because with them, you can prove the null.” I understand the motivation behind this sort of language…

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Replace data with measurements

March 26, 2015
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To tell whether a statement about data is over-hyped, see whether it retains its meaning if you replace data with measurements. So a request like “Please send me the data from your experiment” becomes “Please send me the measurements from your experiment.” Same thing. But rousing statements about the power of data become banal or even […]

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