Posts Tagged ‘ Sports ’

Luck vs. skill in poker

August 14, 2014
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Luck vs. skill in poker

The thread of our recent discussion of quantifying luck vs. skill in sports turned to poker, motivating the present post. 1. Can good poker players really “read” my cards and figure out what’s in my hand? For a couple years in grad school a group of us had a regular Thursday-night poker game, nickel-dime-quarter with […] The post Luck vs. skill in poker appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Understanding the hot hand, and the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the myth of the hot hand, all at the same time

August 12, 2014
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Josh Miller writes: I came across your paper in the Journal of Management on unreplicable research, and in it you illustrate a point about the null hypothesis via the hot hand literature. I am writing you because I’d like to move your current prior (even if our work uses a classical approach). I am also […] The post Understanding the hot hand, and the myth of the hot hand, and…

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NFL players keep getting bigger and bigger

July 24, 2014
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NFL players keep getting bigger and bigger

Aleks points us to this beautiful dynamic graph by Noah Veltman showing the heights and weights of NFL players over time. The color is pretty but I think I’d prefer something simpler, just one dot per player (with some jittering to handle the discrete reporting of heights and weights). In any case, it’s a great […] The post NFL players keep getting bigger and bigger appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Revisiting the home run data

July 21, 2014
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Revisiting the home run data

Note to New York metro readers: I'm an invited speaker at NYU's "Art and Science of Brand Storytelling" summer course which starts tomorrow. I will be speaking on Thursday, 12-1 pm. You can still register here. *** The home run...

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Interactivity as overhead

July 17, 2014
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Interactivity as overhead

Making data graphics interactive should improve the user experience. In practice, interactivity too often becomes overhead, making it harder for users to understand the data on the graph. Reader Joe D. (via Twitter) admires the statistical sophistication behind this graphic...

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Stan World Cup update

July 15, 2014
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Stan World Cup update

The other day I fit a simple model to estimate team abilities from World Cup outcomes. I fit the model to the signed square roots of the score differentials, using the square root on the theory that when the game is less close, it becomes more variable. 0. Background As you might recall, the estimated […] The post Stan World Cup update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Stan goes to the World Cup

July 13, 2014
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Stan goes to the World Cup

I thought it would be fun to fit a simple model in Stan to estimate the abilities of the teams in the World Cup, then I could post everything here on the blog, the whole story of the analysis from beginning to end, showing the results of spending a couple hours on a data analysis. […] The post Stan goes to the World Cup appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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D&D 5e: Probabilities for Advantage and Disadvantage

July 12, 2014
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D&D 5e:  Probabilities for Advantage and Disadvantage

The new rules for D&D 5e (formerly known as D&D Next) are finally here: Dungeons & Dragons, 5th Edition: Basic Rules D&D 5e introduces a new game mechanic, advantage and disadvantage. Basic d20 Rules Usually, players roll a 20-sided die (d20) to resolve everyting from attempts at diplomacy to hitting someone with a sword. Each […] The post D&D 5e: Probabilities for Advantage and Disadvantage appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Visualizing sampling error and dynamic graphics

July 5, 2014
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Robert Grant writes: What do you think of this visualisation from the NYT [in an article by Neil Irwin and Kevin Quealy but I'm not sure if they're the designers of the visualization]? I’m pretty impressed as a method of showing sampling error to a general audience! I agree. P.S. In related news, Antony Unwin […] The post Visualizing sampling error and dynamic graphics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Dimensionless analysis as applied to swimming!

July 4, 2014
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Dimensionless analysis as applied to swimming!

We have no fireworks-related posts for July 4th but at least we have an item that’s appropriate for the summer weather. It comes from Daniel Lakeland, who writes: Recently in one of your blog posts (“priors I don’t believe”) there was a discussion in which I was advocating the use of dimensional analysis and dimensionless […] The post Dimensionless analysis as applied to swimming! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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