Posts Tagged ‘ Sports ’

Publish your raw data and your speculations, then let other people do the analysis: track and field edition

August 21, 2017
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There seems to be an expectation in science that the people who gather a dataset should also be the ones who analyze it. But often that doesn’t make sense: what it takes to gather relevant data has little to do with what it takes to perform a reasonable analysis. Indeed, the imperatives of analysis can […] The post Publish your raw data and your speculations, then let other people do…

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I don’t like discrete models (hot hand in baseball edition)

August 14, 2017
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Bill Jefferys points us to this article, “Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real,” in which Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews analyze a year of pitch-by-pitch data from Major League Baseball. There are some good things in their analysis, and I think a lot can be learned from these data using what Arthur and Matthews did, so […] The post I don’t like discrete models (hot hand in baseball edition) appeared first…

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PPNAS again: If it hadn’t been for the jet lag, would Junior have banged out 756 HRs in his career?

August 4, 2017
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In an email with subject line, “Difference between “significant” and “not significant”: baseball edition?”, Greg Distelhorst writes: I think it’s important to improve statistical practice in the social sciences. I also care about baseball. In this PNAS article, Table 1 and the discussion of differences between east vs. west and home vs. away effects do […] The post PPNAS again: If it hadn’t been for the jet lag, would Junior…

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His concern is that the authors don’t control for the position of games within a season.

July 19, 2017
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Chris Glynn wrote last year: I read your blog post about middle brow literature and PPNAS the other day. Today, a friend forwarded me this article in The Atlantic that (in my opinion) is another example of what you’ve recently been talking about. The research in question is focused on Major League Baseball and the […] The post His concern is that the authors don’t control for the position of…

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The upcoming NBA hackathon: You’ll never guess the top 10 topics . . .

July 7, 2017
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Jason Rosenfeld writes: We’re hosting our second annual NBA Hackathon this September. This year, there will be two tracks, basketball analytics and business analytics. Prizes include a trip to NBA All-Star 2018 in Los Angeles and a lunch with NBA Commissioner, Adam Silver. Any help spreading the word among your students and beyond is greatly […] The post The upcoming NBA hackathon: You’ll never guess the top 10 topics .…

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A collection of quotes from William James that all could’ve come from . . . Bill James!

June 3, 2017
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From a few years ago, some quotes from the classic psychologist that fit within the worldview of the classic sabermetrician: Faith means belief in something concerning which doubt is theoretically possible. A chain is no stronger than its weakest link, and life is after all a chain. A great many people think they are thinking […] The post A collection of quotes from William James that all could’ve come from…

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Using Stan for week-by-week updating of estimated soccer team abilites

May 17, 2017
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Using Stan for week-by-week updating of estimated soccer team abilites

Milad Kharratzadeh shares this analysis of the English Premier League during last year’s famous season. He fit a Bayesian model using Stan, and the R markdown file is here. The analysis has three interesting features: 1. Team ability is allowed to continuously vary throughout the season; thus, once the season is over, you can see […] The post Using Stan for week-by-week updating of estimated soccer team abilites appeared first…

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Molyneux expresses skepticism on hot hand

April 10, 2017
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image Guy Molyneux writes: I saw your latest post on the hot hand too late to contribute to the discussion there. While I don’t disagree with your critique of Gilovich and his reluctance to acknowledge past errors, I do think you underestimate the power of the evidence against a meaningful hot hand effect in sports. […] The post Molyneux expresses skepticism on hot hand appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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The Las Vegas Odds

March 27, 2017
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Kevin Lewis suggests the above name for pro football’s newest team, after hearing that “The NFL is letting the Oakland Raiders move to Las Vegas, a move once nearly unthinkable due to its opposition to sports gambling.” Is there anyone good at graphic design who’d like to design a logo? I’m not sure what images […] The post The Las Vegas Odds appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Much more to do after selecting a chart form

March 6, 2017
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Much more to do after selecting a chart form

I sketched out this blog post right before the Superbowl - and was really worked up as I happened to be flying into Atlanta right after they won (well, according to any of our favorite "prediction engines," the Falcons had...

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