Posts Tagged ‘ Sports ’

A collection of quotes from William James that all could’ve come from . . . Bill James!

June 3, 2017
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From a few years ago, some quotes from the classic psychologist that fit within the worldview of the classic sabermetrician: Faith means belief in something concerning which doubt is theoretically possible. A chain is no stronger than its weakest link, and life is after all a chain. A great many people think they are thinking […] The post A collection of quotes from William James that all could’ve come from…

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Using Stan for week-by-week updating of estimated soccer team abilites

May 17, 2017
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Using Stan for week-by-week updating of estimated soccer team abilites

Milad Kharratzadeh shares this analysis of the English Premier League during last year’s famous season. He fit a Bayesian model using Stan, and the R markdown file is here. The analysis has three interesting features: 1. Team ability is allowed to continuously vary throughout the season; thus, once the season is over, you can see […] The post Using Stan for week-by-week updating of estimated soccer team abilites appeared first…

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Molyneux expresses skepticism on hot hand

April 10, 2017
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image Guy Molyneux writes: I saw your latest post on the hot hand too late to contribute to the discussion there. While I don’t disagree with your critique of Gilovich and his reluctance to acknowledge past errors, I do think you underestimate the power of the evidence against a meaningful hot hand effect in sports. […] The post Molyneux expresses skepticism on hot hand appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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The Las Vegas Odds

March 27, 2017
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Kevin Lewis suggests the above name for pro football’s newest team, after hearing that “The NFL is letting the Oakland Raiders move to Las Vegas, a move once nearly unthinkable due to its opposition to sports gambling.” Is there anyone good at graphic design who’d like to design a logo? I’m not sure what images […] The post The Las Vegas Odds appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Much more to do after selecting a chart form

March 6, 2017
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Much more to do after selecting a chart form

I sketched out this blog post right before the Superbowl - and was really worked up as I happened to be flying into Atlanta right after they won (well, according to any of our favorite "prediction engines," the Falcons had...

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Time Inc. stoops to the level of the American Society of Human Genetics and PPNAS?

January 9, 2017
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Time Inc. stoops to the level of the American Society of Human Genetics and PPNAS?

The post Time Inc. stoops to the level of the American Society of Human Genetics and PPNAS? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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You Won’t BELIEVE How Trump Broke Up This Celebrity Couple!

December 23, 2016
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You Won’t BELIEVE How Trump Broke Up This Celebrity Couple!

A few months ago I asked if it was splitsville for tech zillionaire Peter Thiel and chess champion Garry Kasparov, after seeing this quote from Kasparov in April: Trump sells the myth of American success instead of the real thing. . . . It’s tempting to rally behind him-but we should resist. Because the New […] The post You Won’t BELIEVE How Trump Broke Up This Celebrity Couple! appeared first…

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Low correlation of predictions and outcomes is no evidence against hot hand

December 19, 2016
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Low correlation of predictions and outcomes is no evidence against hot hand

Josh Miller (of Miller & Sanjurjo) writes: On correlations, you know, the original Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky paper found that the Cornell players’ “predictions” of their teammates’ shots correlated 0.04, on average. No evidence they can see the hot hand, right? Here is an easy correlation question: suppose Bob shoots with probability ph=.55 when he […] The post Low correlation of predictions and outcomes is no evidence against hot hand…

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Hey, I forgot to include a cat picture in my previous post!

December 7, 2016
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Hey, I forgot to include a cat picture in my previous post!

Josh Miller fixes it for me: The post Hey, I forgot to include a cat picture in my previous post! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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a2

November 22, 2016
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a2

Wow. P.S. In the comment thread, Peter Dorman has an interesting discussion of Carlsen’s errors so far during the tournament. The post a2 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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