Posts Tagged ‘ Miscellaneous Statistics ’

“Statistics: Learning from stories” (my talk in Zurich on Tues 28 Aug)

April 18, 2018
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Statistics: Learning from stories Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University, New York Here is a paradox: In statistics we aim for representative samples and balanced comparisons, but stories are interesting to the extent that they are surprising and atypical. The resolution of the paradox is that stories can be […] The post “Statistics: Learning from stories” (my talk in Zurich on Tues 28 Aug)…

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It’s all about Hurricane Andrew: Do patterns in post-disaster donations demonstrate egotism?

April 13, 2018
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Jim Windle points to this post discussing a paper by Jesse Chandler, Tiffany M. Griffin, and Nicholas Sorensen, “In the ‘I’ of the Storm: Shared Initials Increase Disaster Donations.” I took a quick look and didn’t notice anything clearly wrong with the paper, but there did seem to be some opportunities for forking paths, in […] The post It’s all about Hurricane Andrew: Do patterns in post-disaster donations demonstrate egotism?…

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Do Statistical Methods Have an Expiration Date? (my talk noon Mon 16 Apr at the University of Pennsylvania)

April 12, 2018
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Do Statistical Methods Have an Expiration Date? Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University There is a statistical crisis in the human sciences: many celebrated findings have failed to replicate, and careful analysis has revealed that many celebrated research projects were dead on arrival in the sense of never having […] The post Do Statistical Methods Have an Expiration Date? (my talk noon Mon 16…

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Failure of failure to replicate

April 11, 2018
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Failure of failure to replicate

Dan Kahan tells this story: Too much here to digest probably, but the common theme is—what if people start saying their work “replicates” or “fails to replicate” when the studies in question are massively underpowered &/or have significantly different design (& sample) from target study? 1. Kahan after discovering that authors claim my study “failed […] The post Failure of failure to replicate appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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More bad news in the scientific literature: A 3-day study is called “long term,” and nobody even seems to notice the problem. Whassup with that??

April 5, 2018
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More bad news in the scientific literature:  A 3-day study is called “long term,”  and nobody even seems to notice the problem.  Whassup with that??

Someone pointed me to this article, “The more you play, the more aggressive you become: A long-term experimental study of cumulative violent video game effects on hostile expectations and aggressive behavior,” by Youssef Hasan, Laurent Bègue, Michael Scharkow, and Brad Bushman. My correspondent was suspicious of the error bars in Figure 1. I actually think […] The post More bad news in the scientific literature: A 3-day study is called…

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Are self-driving cars 33 times more deadly than regular cars?

March 23, 2018
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Paul Kedrosky writes: I’ve been mulling the noise over Uber’s pedestrian death. While there are fewer pedestrian deaths so far from autonomous cars than non-autonomous (one in a few thousand hours, versus 1 every 1.5 hours), there is also, of course, a big difference in rates per passenger-mile. The rate for autonomous cars is now […] The post Are self-driving cars 33 times more deadly than regular cars? appeared first…

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Lessons learned in Hell

March 23, 2018
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This post is by Phil. It is not by Andrew. I’m halfway through my third year as a consultant, after 25 years at a government research lab, and I just had a miserable five weeks finishing a project. The end product was fine — actually really good — but the process was horrible and I […] The post Lessons learned in Hell appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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The purpose of a pilot study is to demonstrate the feasibility of an experiment, not to estimate the treatment effect

March 20, 2018
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David Allison sent this along: – Press release from original paper: “The dramatic decrease in BMI, although unexpected in this short time frame, demonstrated that the [Shaping Healthy Choices Program] SHCP was effective . . .” – Comment on paper and call for correction or retraction: “. . . these facts show that the analyses […] The post The purpose of a pilot study is to demonstrate the feasibility of…

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What We Talk About When We Talk About Bias

March 17, 2018
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What We Talk About When We Talk About Bias

Shira Mitchell wrote: I gave a talk today at Mathematica about NHST in low power settings (Type M/S errors). It was fun and the discussion was great. One thing that came up is bias from doing some kind of regularization/shrinkage/partial-pooling versus selection bias (confounding, nonrandom samples, etc). One difference (I think?) is that the first […] The post What We Talk About When We Talk About Bias appeared first on…

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Gaydar and the fallacy of objective measurement

March 16, 2018
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Greggor Mattson, Dan Simpson, and I wrote this paper, which begins: Recent media coverage of studies about “gaydar,” the supposed ability to detect another’s sexual orientation through visual cues, reveal problems in which the ideals of scientific precision strip the context from intrinsically social phenomena. This fallacy of objective measurement, as we term it, leads […] The post Gaydar and the fallacy of objective measurement appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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