Posts Tagged ‘ Miscellaneous Statistics ’

No to inferential thresholds

November 20, 2017
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Harry Crane points us to this new paper, “Why ‘Redefining Statistical Significance’ Will Not Improve Reproducibility and Could Make the Replication Crisis Worse,” and writes: Quick summary: Benjamin et al. claim that FPR would improve by factors greater than 2 and replication rates would double under their plan. That analysis ignores the existence and impact […] The post No to inferential thresholds appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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No no no no no on “The oldest human lived to 122. Why no person will likely break her record.”

November 16, 2017
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I came across this news article by Brian Resnick entitled: The oldest human lived to 122. Why no person will likely break her record. Even with better medicine, living past 120 years will be extremely unlikely. I was skeptical, and I really didn’t buy it after reading the research article, “Evidence for a limit to […] The post No no no no no on “The oldest human lived to 122.…

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I hate that “Iron Law” thing

November 13, 2017
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Dahyeon Jeong wrote: While I was reading your today’s post “Some people are so easy to contact and some people aren’t”, I’ve come across your older posts including “Edlin’s rule for routinely scaling down published estimates.” In this post you write: Also, yeah, that Iron Law thing sounds horribly misleading. I’d not heard that particular […] The post I hate that “Iron Law” thing appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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What should this student do? His bosses want him to p-hack and they don’t even know it!

November 11, 2017
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Someone writes: I’m currently a PhD student in the social sciences department of a university. I recently got involved with a group of professors working on a project which involved some costly data-collection. None of them have any real statistical prowess, so they came to me to perform their analyses, which I was happy to […] The post What should this student do? His bosses want him to p-hack and…

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The Statistical Crisis in Science—and How to Move Forward (my talk next Monday 6pm at Columbia)

November 6, 2017
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I’m speaking Mon 13 Nov, 6pm, at Low Library Rotunda at Columbia: The Statistical Crisis in Science—and How to Move Forward Using examples ranging from elections to birthdays to policy analysis, Professor Andrew Gelman will discuss ways in which statistical methods have failed, leading to a replication crisis in much of science, as well as […] The post The Statistical Crisis in Science—and How to Move Forward (my talk next…

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The time reversal heuristic (priming and voting edition)

November 4, 2017
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Ed Yong writes: Over the past decade, social psychologists have dazzled us with studies showing that huge social problems can seemingly be rectified through simple tricks. A small grammatical tweak in a survey delivered to people the day before an election greatly increases voter turnout. A 15-minute writing exercise narrows the achievement gap between black […] The post The time reversal heuristic (priming and voting edition) appeared first on Statistical…

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Post-publication review succeeds again! (Two-lines edition.)

November 4, 2017
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A couple months ago, Uri Simonsohn posted online a suggested statistical method for detecting nonmonotonicity in data. He called it: “Two-lines: The First Valid Test of U-Shaped Relationships.” With a title like that, I guess you’re asking for it. And, indeed, awhile later I received an email from Yair Heller identifying some problems with Uri’s […] The post Post-publication review succeeds again! (Two-lines edition.) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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More thoughts on that “What percent of Americans would you say are gay or lesbian?” survey

November 2, 2017
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More thoughts on that “What percent of Americans would you say are gay or lesbian?” survey

We had some discussion yesterday about this Gallup poll that asked respondents to guess the percentage of Americans who are gay. The average response was 23%—and this stunningly high number was not just driven by outliers: more than half the respondents estimated the proportion gay as 20% or more. All this is in stark contrast […] The post More thoughts on that “What percent of Americans would you say are…

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Statistical Significance and the Dichotomization of Evidence (McShane and Gal’s paper, with discussions by Berry, Briggs, Gelman and Carlin, and Laber and Shedden)

November 1, 2017
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Blake McShane sent along this paper by himself and David Gal, which begins: In light of recent concerns about reproducibility and replicability, the ASA issued a Statement on Statistical Significance and p-values aimed at those who are not primarily statisticians. While the ASA Statement notes that statistical significance and p-values are “commonly misused and misinterpreted,” […] The post Statistical Significance and the Dichotomization of Evidence (McShane and Gal’s paper, with…

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“Americans Greatly Overestimate Percent Gay, Lesbian in U.S.”

November 1, 2017
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“Americans Greatly Overestimate Percent Gay, Lesbian in U.S.”

This sort of thing is not new but it’s still amusing. From a Gallup report by Frank Newport: The American public estimates on average that 23% of Americans are gay or lesbian, little changed from Americans’ 25% estimate in 2011, and only slightly higher than separate 2002 estimates of the gay and lesbian population. These […] The post “Americans Greatly Overestimate Percent Gay, Lesbian in U.S.” appeared first on Statistical…

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