# Posts Tagged ‘ mathematics ’

## Probabilité et géométrie

November 17, 2013
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$\mathbb{P}(Y=y)=\sum_x \mathbb{P}(Y=y,X=x)$

Une des formules les plus importantes en probabilité (je trouve) est la “formule des probabilités totales” qui dit tout simplement que que l’ont peut aussi écrire, à l’aide de la formule de Bayes Une des conséquences de ce résultat est la “law of total expectation“, souvent appelé théorème de double projection, que l’on écrit souvent sous la forme raccourcie  (dans la formule de droite, le premier symbole est un espérance, c’est…

## Mathématiques de l’Assurance Non-Vie (2)

November 14, 2013
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« Dans ce contexte d’incertitude, il est particulièrement réconfortant de revenir aux sources, aux fondamentaux, c’est-à-dire aux mathématiques et de rappeler que le risque naît de l’aléa et s’appréhende grâce aux développements les plus avancés du calcul des probabilités. » (Claude Bébéar, dans la préface du tome 1) Après avoir été épuisé plusieurs semaines (voire plusieurs mois ?), une nouvelle impression du tome 2 de Mathématiques de l’Assurance Non-Vie, coécrit avec Michel…

## Three jobs at Monash

October 18, 2013
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We are currently advertising for three academic positions, suitable for recent PhD graduates. Lecturer (Applied Statistics or Operations Research) Five-year position with MAXIMA and the School of Mathematical Sciences Two positions available. Applicat...

## Parallel Tempering in R with Rmpi

October 7, 2013
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$Parallel Tempering in R with Rmpi$

My office computer recently got a really nice upgrade and now I have 8 cores on my desktop to play with. I also at the same time received some code for a Gibbs sampler written in R from my adviser. I wanted to try a metropolis-coupled markov chain monte carlo, , algorithm on it to […]The post Parallel Tempering in R with Rmpi appeared first on Lindons Log.

## Estimating rates from a single occurrence of a rare event

October 5, 2013
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Elon Musk’s writing about a Tesla battery fire reminded me of some of the math related to trying to estimate the rate of a rare event from a single occurrence of the event (plus many non-event occurrences). In this article we work through some of the ideas. Elon Musk wrote that the issues of the […] Related posts: Sample size and power for rare events What is a large enough…

## OTexts.org is launched

September 26, 2013
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The publishing platform I set up for my forecasting book has now been extended to cover more books and greater functionality. Check it out at www.otexts.org. So far, we have three complete books: Forecasting: principles and practice, by Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos Statistical foundations of machine learning, by Gianluca Bontempi and Souhaib Ben Taieb Modal logic of strict necessity and possbibility, by Evgeni Latinov and one book currently…

## On-line learning and teaching resources

September 22, 2013
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Twenty-first century Junior Woodchuck Guidebook I grew up reading Donald Duck comics. I love the Junior Woodchucks, and their Junior Woodchuck Guidebook. The Guidebook is a small paperback book, containing information on every conceivable subject, including geography, mythology, history, literature … Continue reading →

## How to learn statistics (Part 2)

September 15, 2013
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Some more help (preaching?) for students of statistics Last week I outlined the first five principles to help people to learn and study statistics. They focussed on how you need to practise in order to be good at statistics and … Continue reading →

## MAXIMA research centre at Monash Uni

September 11, 2013
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The “Monash Academy for Cross and Interdisciplinary Mathematical Applications” (MAXIMA) is a new research centre that aims to maximise the potential of mathematics to deliver impact to society. It will be led by Kate Smith-Miles. I will also be inv...

## How to study statistics (Part 1)

September 9, 2013
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To students of statistics Most of my posts are directed at teachers and how to teach statistics. The blog this week and next is devoted to students. I present principles that will help you to learn statistics. I’m turning them … Continue reading →