MCMskv #5 [future with a view]

January 11, 2016
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As I am flying back to Paris (with an afternoon committee meeting in München in-between), I am reminiscing on the superlative scientific quality of this MCMski meeting, on the novel directions in computational Bayesian statistics exhibited therein, and on the potential settings for the next meeting. If any. First, as hopefully obvious from my previous […]

Street-Fighting Probability and Street-Fighting Stats: 2 One-Week Modules

January 11, 2016
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In a comment to my previous post on the Street-Fighting Math course, Alex wrote: Have you thought about incorporating this material into more conventional classes? I can see this being very good material for a “principles” section of a linear modeling or other applied statistics course. It could give students a sense for how to […] The post Street-Fighting Probability and Street-Fighting Stats: 2 One-Week Modules appeared first on Statistical…

Brilliant Strategy and Stunning Results

January 11, 2016
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Check out Justin Wolfers' latest:From The New York Times:  “When Teamwork Doesn’t Work for Women”A study finds that female economists get far less credit for collaborative work than their male colleagues do, often harming their career prospe...

New course: Street-Fighting Math

January 11, 2016
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$New course: Street-Fighting Math$

I want to teach a course next year based on two books by Sanjoy Mahajan: Street-Fighting Mathematics and The Art of Insight in Science and Engineering. You can think of the two books as baby versions of Weisskopf’s 1969 classic, Modern Physics from an Elementary Point of View. Another book in the same vein is […] The post New course: Street-Fighting Math appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Jeff, Roger and Brian Caffo are doing a Reddit AMA at 3pm EST Today

January 11, 2016
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Jeff Leek, Brian Caffo, and I are doing a Reddit AMA TODAY at 3pm EST. We're happy to answer questions about...anything...including our roles as Co-Directors of the Johns Hopkins Data Science Specialization as well as the Executive Data Science Special...

On deck this week

January 11, 2016
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Mon: New course: Street-Fighting Math Tues: Paxil: What went wrong? Wed: Pro-PACE, anti-PACE Thurs: My namesake doesn’t seem to understand the principles of decision analysis Fri: Risk aversion is a two-way street Sat: A reanalysis of data from a Psychological Science paper Sun: The devil really is in the details; or, You’ll be able to […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Treating absolute and relative data simultaneously

January 11, 2016
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A friend asked me to comment on the following chart: Specifically, he points out the challenge of trying to convey both absolute and relative metrics for a given data series. This chart presents projections of growth in the U.S. mobile...

mixtures are slices of an orange

January 11, 2016
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After presenting this work in both London and Lenzerheide, Kaniav Kamary, Kate Lee and I arXived and submitted our paper on a new parametrisation of location-scale mixtures. Although it took a long while to finalise the paper, given that we came with the original and central idea about a year ago, I remain quite excited […]

Twelve posts from 2015 that deserve a second look

January 11, 2016
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I began 2016 by compiling a list of popular articles from my blog in 2015. This "People's Choice" list contains many interesting articles, but some of my personal favorites did not make the list. Today I present the "Editor's Choice" list of articles that deserve a second look. I've grouped […] The post Twelve posts from 2015 that deserve a second look appeared first on The DO Loop.

The Star Wars Grossing War

January 11, 2016
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Motivation I finally made to the movies for watching the new Star Wars release this weekend. Although this episode wasn’t that spectacular, in my view, it did inspire some data seeking afterwards. I wanted to know how this film compares to others top...

The Star Wars Grossing War

January 11, 2016
By

Motivation I finally made to the movies for watching the new Star Wars release this weekend. Although this episode wasn’t that spectacular, in my view, it did inspire some data seeking afterwards. I wanted to know how this film compares to others top...

The Star Wars Grossing War

January 11, 2016
By

Motivation I finally made to the movies for watching the new Star Wars release this weekend. Although this episode wasn’t that spectacular, in my view, it did inspire some data seeking afterwards. I wanted to know how this film compares to others top...

Collectionner les Figurines Lego

January 10, 2016
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Tous ceux qui ont des enfants – ou qui jouent encore au Lego – le savent : régulièrement, Lego sort des séries de figurines, vendus en sachets individuels hermétiques, un peu comme les anciennes cartes à jouer. On est à la saison 15, et il y a 16 figurines par séries, D’ordinaire, les enfants réclament un paquet, quand on va dans un magasin de jeux (genre pour acheter un…

Stan in the tabloids!

January 10, 2016
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I’ve never published anything in PPNAS except for letters, but now you could say I have an indirect full publication there, as Peter Smits informs us of this new paper that uses Stan! Peter D. Smits. Expected time-invariant effects of biological traits on mammal species duration. PPNAS 2015, published ahead of print October 5, 2015, […] The post Stan in the tabloids! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, December 2015

January 10, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Also, this month when I wasn't reading textbooks on regression, I was doped to the gills on a mixture of binged TV shows, serial audio fiction and flu medicine. Michael H. Kutner, Chris J. Nachtsheim ...

36-401, Modern Regression, Fall 2015: Reflections and Lessons Learned

January 10, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: Navel-gazing by an academic. This was my first time teaching our undergraduate course on linear models ("401"). I've taught the course which follows it (402) four times, and re-designed it once, but I've never had to a...

Course Announcement: 36-402, Advanced Data Analysis, Spring 2016

January 10, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: Only relevant if you are a student at Carnegie Mellon University, or have a pathological fondness for reading lecture notes on statistics. In the so-called spring, I will again be teaching 36-402 / 36-608, undergraduate...

Premises

January 9, 2016
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A: You know I like the idea of using logic and logical deduction to understand how thinking should be done. This idea that beliefs are, or at least should be, the conclusions of deductive arguments is very clear and elegant. But I do worry… B: You worry?  Tell me about your worries. A: For a … Continue reading Premises

Difference-in-Differences With Missing Data

January 9, 2016
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This brief post is a "shout out" for  Irene Botusaru (Economics, Simon Fraser University) who gave a great seminar in our department yesterday.The paper that she presented (co-authored with Federico Guitierrez), is titled "Diff...

Why are trolls so bothersome?

January 9, 2016
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We don’t get a lot of trolls on this blog. When people try, I typically respond with some mixture of directness and firmness, and the trolls either give up or perhaps they recognize that I am answering questions in sincerity, which does not serve their trollish purposes. But I’m pretty sure that my feeling is […] The post Why are trolls so bothersome? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Asymmetric funnel plots without publication bias

January 9, 2016
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In my last post about standardized effect sizes, I showed how averaging across trials before computing standardized effect sizes such as partial $$\eta^2$$ and Cohen's d can produce arbitrary estimates of those quantities. This has drastic implications...

A Data Science Solution to the Question "What is Data Science?"

January 8, 2016
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As this flowchart from Wikipedia illustrates, data science is about collecting, cleaning, analyzing and reporting data. But is it data science or just or a "sexed up term" for Statistics (see embedded quote by Nate Silver)? It's difficult to separ...

Preregistration Challenge: My email exchange

January 8, 2016
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David Mellor, from the Center for Open Science, emailed me asking if I’d announce his Preregistration Challenge on my blog, and I’m glad to do so. You win \$1,000 if your properly preregistered paper is published. The recent replication effort in psychology showed, despite the common refrain – “it’s too easy to get low P-values” – that in […]