The Washington Post has a good idea. Using Census data, they computed the proportion of police force who are white and the corresponding proportion of citizens who are white, in different cities. In the following scatter plot, they singled out...

This is a supplement to the previous post about a new research paper on the effect of Alcoholics Anonymous, and an NY Times exposition that I commented on. A misreading of that article led me to complain about per-protocol analysis, which wasn't the methodology behind the Humphrey et. al. research. I will explain their methodology in this post (known as instrumental variables analysis). *** In the last post, I showed…

I, with my coathors, have submitted a new draft of our paper "The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals". This paper is substantially modified from its previous incarnation. Here is the main argument:"[C]onfidence intervals may not be u...

Following up on our post on PredictWise, Richard Barker points to this fun site of market-based predictions. It’s subtitled, “Buy and sell stocks in future political and economic events.” It’s based in New Zealand so you can bet on wacky propositions such as, “David Carter to be next High Commissioner from New Zealand to the […] The post Online predictions from ipredict appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

This early morning, just before going out for my daily run around The Parc, I checked X validated for new questions and came upon that one. Namely, how to simulate X a Bin(8,2/3) variate and Y a Bin(18,2/3) such that corr(X,Y)=0.5. (No reason or motivation provided for this constraint.) And I thought the following (presumably […]

The 13th Australasian Data Mining Conference (AusDM 2015) Sydney, Australia, 8–9 August 2015 (co-located with SIGKDD’15) URL: http://ausdm15.ausdm.org/ The Australasian Data Mining Conference has established itself as the premier Australasian meeting for both practitioners and researchers in data mining. It … Continue reading →

Date: Wednesday 29 April Time: 5.45pm for a 6pm start Cost: Nil Where: SAS Offices, 12 Moore Street, Canberra, ACT 2600 RSVP link: http://www.iapa.org.au/Event/ACTChapterEvent29AprilBigDataInSocialSciences Join us for our next ACT Chapter Event on the 29th of April. We have guest … Continue reading →

Buybacks are when companies buy their own stocks. They can do this privately with stockholders, or simply purchase the stocks off the open market. Why? Companies buy back their own stocks because this supports the value of their stock (during tough times). It also reduces the total amount of equity, which improves metrics like Return on […]

Fränzi and Tobias‘s book is now real: Fränzi Korner-Nievergelt, Tobias Roth, Stefanie von Felten, Jérôme Guélat, Bettina Almasi, and Pius Korner-Nievergelt (2015) Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and Stan. Academic Press. This is based in part on the in-person tutorials that they and the other authors have been giving […] The post New Book: Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R,…

Mon: New book on Bayesian analysis in ecology using Stan Tues: The feather, the bathroom scale, and the kangaroo Wed: Instead of worrying about multiple hypothesis correction, just fit a hierarchical model. Thurs: Political Attitudes in Social Environments Fri: Statistical significance, practical significance, and interactions Sat: Statistical analysis on a dataset that consists of a […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

[After communicating with Frakt, Humphrey and Dean Eckles, I realize that I was confused about Frakt's description of the Humphrey paper, which does not perform PP analysis. So when reading this post, consider it a discussion of ITT versus PP analysis. I will post about Humphrey's methodology separately.] The New York Times plugged a study of the effectiveness of Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) (link). The author (Austin Frakt) used this occasion…

In clinical trials, a waterfall plot is often used to indicate how patients in the study responded to treatment. In oncology trials, the response variable might be the percent change in the size of a tumor from the individual's baseline value at the start of the trial. The percent change […] The post Create a waterfall plot in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

Unit charts are not common in visualization, and they are often considered a bad idea. The same is true for using shapes other than rectangles. Neither is based on much actual research, however. In a new paper, we look at the specific example of ISOTYPE-style charts – and find them to be quite effective. I have written about ISOTYPE … Continue reading Paper: ISOTYPE Visualization – Working Memory, Performance, and Engagement with Pictographs

This is an update to a previous post on reading fixed width formats in R. A new addition to the Hadleyverse is the package readr, which includes a function read_fwf to read fixed width format files. I’ll compare the LaF approach to the readr approach using the same dataset as before. The variable wt is […]

Bikes . . . have “become the most common mode of transportation for criminals.” OK, that’s just ethnic profiling of Dutch people. I think they’re just gonna put the whole country on lockdown. The post Diederik Stapel in the news, again...

“Tests of Statistical Hypotheses and Their Use in Studies of Natural Phenomena” by Jerzy Neyman ABSTRACT. Contrary to ideas suggested by the title of the conference at which the present paper was presented, the author is not aware of a conceptual difference between a “test of a statistical hypothesis” and a “test of significance” and uses […]

I was talking with someone today about various “dead on arrival” research programs we’ve been discussing here for the past few years: I’m talking about topics such beauty and sex ratios of children, or ovulation and voting, or ESP—all of which possibly represent real phenomena and could possibly be studied in a productive way, just […] The post How do data and experiments fit into a scientific research program? appeared…