“When Both Men and Women Drop Out of the Labor Force, Why Do Economists Only Ask About Men?”

Dean Baker points to this column, where Gregory Mankiw writes: With unemployment at 3.8 percent, its lowest level in many years, the labor market seems healthy. But that number hides a perplexing anomaly: The percentage of men who are neither working nor looking for work has risen substantially over the past several decades. . . […]

“When Both Men and Women Drop Out of the Labor Force, Why Do Economists Only Ask About Men?”

Dean Baker points to this column, where Gregory Mankiw writes: With unemployment at 3.8 percent, its lowest level in many years, the labor market seems healthy. But that number hides a perplexing anomaly: The percentage of men who are neither working nor looking for work has risen substantially over the past several decades. . . […]

a new method to solve the transformation of calculus

An hilariously ridiculous email I just received (warning: book cover unrelated): Good day! this is very important to the “Mathematics” and the related fields, “The Simulator”,“Probability theory”,”Statistics”,”Numerical Analysis”, “Cryptography”,“Data mining”,“The big data analysis”and“Artificial Intelligence”. The transformation of random variables in Calculus is very difficult and sometimes is impossible to be done. The simulator can get […]

New prime record: 51st Mersenne prime discovered

A new prime record was announced yesterday. The largest known prime is now Written in hexadecimal the newly discovered prime is For decades the largest known prime has been a Mersenne prime because there’s an efficient test for checking whether a Mersenne number is prime. I explain the test here. There are now 51 known […]

Carol Nickerson explains what those mysterious diagrams were saying

A few years ago, James Coyne asked, “Can you make sense of this diagram?” and I responded, No, I can’t. At the time, Carol Nickerson wrote up explanations for two of the figures in the article in question. So if anyone’s interested, here they are: Carol Nickerson’s explanation of Figure 2 in Kok et al. […]

Carol Nickerson explains what those mysterious diagrams were saying

A few years ago, James Coyne asked, “Can you make sense of this diagram?” and I responded, No, I can’t. At the time, Carol Nickerson wrote up explanations for two of the figures in the article in question. So if anyone’s interested, here they are: Carol Nickerson’s explanation of Figure 2 in Kok et al. […]

Simulating Persian Monarchs gameplay

Persian Monarchs described by P. G. Wodehouse in one of his funniest novels is an extremely simple fictional card game, but the gambling makes it a game of skill, and we can even construct plausible different strategies for winning. A good strategy inv…

Network for early career researchers in forecasting

The International Institute of Forecasters has established interest group sections, devoted to specialized domains of forecasting. One of the first such sections will be for early career researchers.
So if you are a PhD student, post-doc, or otherwise …

waiting for the red lights to change

This post will look at adaptively randomized trial designs. In particular, we want to focus on multi-arm trials, i.e. trials of more than two treatments. The aim is to drop the less effective treatments quickly so the trial can focus on determining which of the better treatments is best. We’ll briefly review our approach to […]

Kepler and the contraction mapping theorem

The contraction mapping theorem says that if a function moves points closer together, then there must be some point the function doesn’t move. We’ll make this statement more precise and give a historically important application. Definitions and theorem A function f on a metric space X is a contraction if there exists a constant q with […]

The causal hype ratchet

Noah Haber informs us of a research article, “Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review,” that he wrote with Emily Smith, Ellen Moscoe, Kathryn Andrews, Robin Audy, Winnie Bell, Alana Brennan, Alexander Breskin, Jeremy Kane, Mahesh Karra, Elizabeth McClure, and Elizabeth Suarez, and […]

The post The causal hype ratchet appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

The causal hype ratchet

Noah Haber informs us of a research article, “Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review,” that he wrote with Emily Smith, Ellen Moscoe, Kathryn Andrews, Robin Audy, Winnie Bell, Alana Brennan, Alexander Breskin, Jeremy Kane, Mahesh Karra, Elizabeth McClure, and Elizabeth Suarez, and […]

The post The causal hype ratchet appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“more Bayesian” GANs

On X validated, I got pointed to this recent paper by He, Wang, Lee and Tiang, that proposes a new form of Bayesian GAN. Although I do not see it as really Bayesian, as explained below. “[The] existing Bayesian method (Saatchi & Wilson, 2017) may lead to incompatible conditionals, which suggest that the underlying joint […]

Exploring model fit by looking at a histogram of a posterior simulation draw of a set of parameters in a hierarchical model

Opher Donchin writes in with a question: We’ve been finding it useful in the lab recently to look at the histogram of samples from the parameter combined across all subjects. We think, but we’re not sure, that this reflects the distribution of that parameter when marginalized across subjects and can be a useful visualization. It […]

Exploring model fit by looking at a histogram of a posterior simulation draw of a set of parameters in a hierarchical model

Opher Donchin writes in with a question: We’ve been finding it useful in the lab recently to look at the histogram of samples from the parameter combined across all subjects. We think, but we’re not sure, that this reflects the distribution of that parameter when marginalized across subjects and can be a useful visualization. It […]

Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts: Excerpts From Excursion 3 Tour III

Tour III Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts   From the itinerary: A long-standing family feud among frequentists is between hypotheses tests and confidence intervals (CIs), but in fact there’s a clear duality between the two. The dual mission of the first stop (Section 3.7) of this tour is to illuminate both CIs and severity by […]

Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts: Excerpts From Excursion 3 Tour III

Tour III Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts   From the itinerary: A long-standing family feud among frequentists is between hypotheses tests and confidence intervals (CIs), but in fact there’s a clear duality between the two. The dual mission of the first stop (Section 3.7) of this tour is to illuminate both CIs and severity by […]