## Free introduction to doing Bayesian data analysis – Share with friends!

January 16, 2015
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The goal of Chapter 2 is to introduce the conceptual framework of Bayesian data analysis. Bayesian data analysis has two foundational ideas. The first idea is that Bayesian inference is reallocation of credibility across possibilities. The second found...

## If you were going to write a paper about the false discovery rate you should have done it in 2002

January 16, 2015
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People often talk about academic superstars as people who have written highly cited papers. Some of that has to do with people's genius, or ability, or whatever. But one factor that I think sometimes gets lost is luck and timing. So I wrote a little script to get the first 30 papers that appear when

## When a study fails to replicate: let’s be fair and open-minded

January 16, 2015
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In a recent discussion of replication in science (particularly psychology experiments), the question came up of how to interpret things when a preregistered replication reaches a conclusion different from the original study. Typically the original, published result is large and statistically significant, and the estimate from the replication is small and not statistically significant. One […] The post When a study fails to replicate: let’s be fair and open-minded appeared…

## Cross-validation, LOO and WAIC for time series

January 16, 2015
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This post is by Aki. Jonah asked in Stan users mailing list Suppose we have J groups and T time periods, so y[t,j] is the observed value of y at time t for group j. (We also have predictors x[t,j].) I’m wondering if WAIC is appropriate in this scenario assuming that our interest in predictive accuracy is for […] The post Cross-validation, LOO and WAIC for time series appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## A Sensitive Approach to Risk and Screening

January 15, 2015
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Risk is an important topic In order to make informed decisions about screening and medical interventions, people need to have a good understanding of risk and probability. The communication and understanding of risk was a very popular topic at the … Continue reading →

## A Sensitive Approach to Risk and Screening

January 15, 2015
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Risk is an important topic In order to make informed decisions about screening and medical interventions, people need to have a good understanding of risk and probability. The communication and understanding of risk was a very popular topic at the … Continue reading →

## The bracket!

January 15, 2015
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That’s right, we’re getting ready for the battle to choose the ultimate seminar speaker. Paul Davidson, who sent in the image below, writes: Knocked together in Excel. I’m European, so I may not have respected the North American system for brackets i.e. I split each category into seeded pools and randomly drew from them. The […] The post The bracket! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## How to find the science paper behind a headline when the link is missing

January 15, 2015
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I just saw a pretty wild statistic on Twitter that less than 60% of university news releases link to the papers they are describing.   Amazingly, less than 60% of university news releases link to the papers they're describing http://t.co/daN11xYvKs pic.twitter.com/QtneZUAeFD — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) January 15, 2015 Before you believe anything your read about

## I need your help in setting up the ultimate bracket: Picking the ideal seminar speaker

January 15, 2015
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This came in the departmental email awhile ago: CALL FOR APPLICATIONS: LATOUR SEMINAR — DUE DATE AUGUST 11 (extended) The Brown Institute for Media Innovation, Alliance (Columbia University, École Polytechnique, Sciences Po, and Panthéon-Sorbonne University), The Center for Science and Society, and The Faculty of Arts and Sciences are proud to present BRUNO LATOUR AT […] The post I need your help in setting up the ultimate bracket: Picking the…

## New Toy: SAS® University Edition

January 15, 2015
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So I started using SAS® University Edition which is a FREE version of SAS® software. Again it's FREE, and that's the main reason why I want to relearn the language. The software was announced on March 24, 2014 and the download went available on May of that year. And for that, I salute Dr. Jim Goodnight. At least we can learn SAS® without paying for the expensive price tag, especially…

## Stan comes through . . . again!

January 14, 2015
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Erikson Kaszubowski writes in: I missed your call for Stan research stories, but the recent post about stranded dolphins mentioned it again. When I read about the Crowdstorming project in your blog, I thought it would be a good project to apply my recent studies in Bayesian modeling. The project coordinators shared a big dataset […] The post Stan comes through . . . again! appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## Links: 2014 News Graphics Round-Ups

January 14, 2015
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In the past, it used to be difficult to find news graphics from the main news organizations. In the last few years, they have started to post year-end lists of their work, which are always a treat to walk through. With the new year a few weeks behind us, this is a good time to … Continue reading Links: 2014 News Graphics Round-Ups

## Some art so far

January 14, 2015
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In response to my request #1 (“Gone Fishing” T-shirt), Ed Witt sent in this: I thanked Ed and asked if it would be possible to take the image and add to it so it’s clear that the “.05” is being drawn from a sea of other numbers, also with a little bucket next to the […] The post Some art so far appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Using the microbenchmark package to compare the execution time of R expressions

January 14, 2015
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I recently learned about the microbenchmark package while browsing through Hadley’s advanced R programming book. I’ve done some quick benchmarking using system.time() in a for loop and taking the average, but the microbenchmark function in the micr...

## Calling a global statement inside a loop

January 14, 2015
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The other day I was creating some histograms inside a loop in PROC IML. It was difficult for me to determine which histogram was associated with which value of the looping variable. "No problem," I said. "I'll just use a TITLE statement inside the loop so that each histogram has […]

## simulation by inverse cdf

January 13, 2015
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$simulation by inverse cdf$

Another Cross Validated forum question that led me to an interesting (?) reconsideration of certitudes! When simulating from a normal distribution, is Box-Muller algorithm better or worse than using the inverse cdf transform? My first reaction was to state that Box-Muller was exact while the inverse cdf relied on the coding of the inverse cdf, like […]

## Why you need a second pair of eyes

January 13, 2015
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Reader Aaron K. submitted an infographic advertising the upcoming New England Auto Show to be held in Boston (link). As Aaron pointed out, there is plenty of elementary errors contained in one page. I don't think the designer did these...

## Artist needed!

January 13, 2015
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We have some great ideas but none of us can draw. We need your help with designs and art for any or all of these projects: 1. “Gone Fishing” T-shirt A person is standing in a boat, fishing. The lake is full, not of fish but of little numbers: “.14″, “.31″, “.08″, etc etc. And […] The post Artist needed! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## r4stats.com 2014 in review

January 13, 2015
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The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2014 annual report for this blog. Here’s an excerpt: The Louvre Museum has 8.5 million visitors per year. This blog was viewed about 260,000 times in 2014. If it were an exhibit at … Continue reading →

## Extended Kalman filter example in R

January 13, 2015
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Last week's post about the Kalman filter focused on the derivation of the algorithm. Today I will continue with the extended Kalman filter (EKF) that can deal also with nonlinearities. According to Wikipedia the EKF has been considered the de facto sta...

## No-go zones?

January 12, 2015
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I think this is really serious: that's the story of an "expert" on terrorism, who's commented on Fox News about the situation in Europe. If you really want to laugh about it, you just take this at face value, as, erm, let's just say, "somebody" who jus...

## Trifacta revisited: tackling a Big Data problem

January 12, 2015
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During my vacation, I had a chance to visit Trifacta, the data-wrangling startup I blogged about last year (link). Wei Zheng, Tye Rattenbury, and Will Davis hosted me, and showed some of the new stuff they are working on. Trifacta is tackling a major Big Data problem, and I remain excited about the direction they are heading. From the beginning, I am attracted by Trifacta’s user interface. The user in…

## What’s misleading about the phrase, “Statistical significance is not the same as practical significance”

January 12, 2015
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You’ve heard it a million times, the idea is that if you have an estimate of .003 (on some reasonable scale in which 1 is a meaningful effect size) and a standard error of .001 then, yes, the estimate is statistically significant but it’s not practically significant. And, indeed, sometimes this sort of thing comes […] The post What’s misleading about the phrase, “Statistical significance is not the same as…

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