Back in 2008, I wrote about this unfortunate chart by the Guardian (link): The barrel imagery interferes with communicating the data. The green portion looks about the same size as the red portion when the number is four times smaller....

Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes: I’m working on building a predictive model (not causal) of the onset of diabetes mellitus using electronic medical records from a semi-panel of HMO patients. The dependent variable is blood glucose level. The unit of analysis is the patient visit to a network doctor or hospitalization in a […] The post “P.S. Is anyone working on hierarchical survival models?” appeared first on Statistical…

A postscript on the post about ProPublica's display of ambulance spending data on Junk Charts. This chart (of which I excerpted the top) is used in support of an article exposing potential fraud by ambulance operators in New Jersey. But the chart by itself is not convincing evidence of fraud. It presents a symptom, and that's really all exploratory analysis of observational data can realistically achieve. The ProPublica investigation is…

If you are trying to visualize numerical data that range over several magnitudes, conventional wisdom says that a log transformation of the data can often result in a better visualization. This article shows several ways to create a scatter plot with logarithmic axes in SAS and discusses some of the […]

Page 94 of Gelman, Carlin, Stern, Dunson, Vehtari, Rubin “Bayesian Data Analysis” 3rd Edition (which we will call BDA3) provides a great example of what happens when common broad frequentist bias criticisms are over-applied to predictions from ordinary linear regression: the predictions appear to fall apart. BDA3 goes on to exhibit what might be considered … Continue reading Automatic bias correction doesn’t fix omitted variable bias → Related posts: Frequentist…

July 4, 2014 was the two year anniversary of the Higgs boson discovery. As the world was celebrating the “5 sigma!” announcement, and we were reading about the statistical aspects of this major accomplishment, I was aghast to be emailed a letter, purportedly instigated by Bayesian Dennis Lindley, through Tony O’Hagan (to the ISBA). Lindley, according […]

It would be bad news if a student in the class of Laurence Tribe or Alan Dershowitz or Ian Ayres or Edward Wegman or Matthew Whitaker or Karl Weick or Frank Fischer were to hand in an assignment that is obviously plagiarized copied from another source without attribution. Would the prof have the chutzpah to […] The post Just wondering appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

A common task in statistics and biostatistics is performing hypothesis tests of independence between 2 categorical random variables. The data for such tests are best organized in contingency tables, which allow expected counts to be calculated easily. In this video tutorial in my Youtube channel, I demonstrate how to calculate expected counts using marginal proportions […]

In the case where are i.i.d. random variables, then Now, what if are identically distributed, but no longer independent. What if we have an autoregressive process? Assume that Then can be written Here, we will express the variance as a function of and , but it is possible to use also , since, in the context of an , Now, since we get which can be simplified, since i.e. So, the variance of the mean can be…

This is (may be) the final post in the series dedicated to the prediction of the World Cup results $-$ I'll try and actually write another to wrap things up and summarise a few comments, but this will probably be a bit later on. Finally, we've decided ...

The following item came in over the Bayes email list: Hi, My name is Jo Fitzpatrick and I work as an Acquisition Editor for Packt Publishing ( www.packtpub.com ). We recently commissioned a book on Bayesian Data Analysis and I’m currently searching for an author to write this book. You need to have good working […] The post “Bayes Data Analysis – Author Needed” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Mon: “Bayes Data Analysis – Author Needed” Tues: Just wondering Wed: “P.S. Is anyone working on hierarchical survival models?” Thurs: Open-source tools for running online field experiments Fri: Hey—this is a new kind of spam! Sat, Sun:...

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Julia Spencer-Fleming, Through Evil Days Continuation of the long-running series. Pulls off the trick of making domestic troubles, ice storms, and not-very-bright criminals equally threatening. (Previously.) Prudence Shen and Faith Erin Hicks, Nothing Can Possibly Go Wrong Comic-book mind candy: a school story about evil cheerleaders vs. combat robots. Delightful, though I don't usually care for such unalloyed social realism. G. E. R.…

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. William M. Arkin, American Coup Arkin has something to say about the self-perpetuating and dubiously-constitutional national security bureaucracy its dim views of actual democracy, and its apparent day...

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. To exemplify this, the theme for the month was finally getting a tablet, and so indulging in a taste for not very sophisticated comic books. John Rogers et al., Dungeons and Dragons: Shadowplague, Fi...

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. To exemplify this, the theme for the month was finally getting a tablet, and so indulging in a taste for not very sophisticated comic books. John Rogers et al., Dungeons and Dragons: Shadowplague, Fi...