## the density that did not exist…

January 26, 2015
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$the density that did not exist…$

On Cross Validated, I had a rather extended discussion with a user about a probability density as I thought it could be decomposed in two manageable conditionals and simulated by Gibbs sampling. The first component led to a Gumbel like density wirh y being restricted to either (0,1) or (1,∞) depending on β. The density […]

## Reproducible Research Course Companion

January 26, 2015
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I'm happy to announce that you can now get a copy of the Reproducible Research Course Companion from the Apple iBookstore. The purpose of this e-book is pretty simple. The book provides all of the key video lectures from my Reproducible Research course offered on Coursera, in a simple offline e-book format. The book can be viewed

## “The Statistical Crisis in Science”: My talk this Thurs at the Harvard psychology department

January 26, 2015
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Noon Thursday, January 29, 2015, in William James Hall 765 room 1: The Statistical Crisis in Science Andrew Gelman, Dept of Statistics and Dept of Political Science, Columbia University Top journals in psychology routinely publish ridiculous, scientifically implausible claims, justified based on “p < 0.05.” And this in turn calls into question all sorts of […] The post “The Statistical Crisis in Science”: My talk this Thurs at the Harvard…

## Wine for Breakfast: Consumption Occasion as the Unit of Analysis

January 26, 2015
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If the thought of a nice Chianti with that breakfast croissant is not that appealing, then I have made by point: occasion shapes consumption. Our tastes have been fashioned by culture and shared practice. Yet, we often ignore the context and run our an...

## Institutionalized publication thresholds, p values, and XKCD

January 26, 2015
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XKCD today is about p values (see image at right). I think that what XKCD is pointing out is not so much a problem with p values as with strongly institutionalized publication thresholds and the ritual of mindless statistics, as Gigerenzer would say. ...

## The (hypothetical) phase diagram of a statistical or computational method

January 26, 2015
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So here’s the deal. You have a new idea, call it method C, and you try it out on problems X, Y, and Z and it works well—it destroys the existing methods A and B. And then you publish a paper with the pithy title, Method C Wins. And, hey, since we’re fantasizing here anyway, […] The post The (hypothetical) phase diagram of a statistical or computational method appeared first…

## Bayesian predictions for Super Bowl XLIX

January 26, 2015
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Last fall I taught an introduction to Bayesian statistics at Olin College. My students worked on some excellent projects, and I invited them to write up their results as guest articles for this blog. Here is the first article of the series:Predicting...

## On deck this week

January 26, 2015
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Mon: The (hypothetical) phase diagram of a statistical or computational method Tues: “It is perhaps merely an accident of history that skeptics and subjectivists alike strain on the gnat of the prior distribution while swallowing the camel that is the likelihood” Wed: Six quick tips to improve your regression modeling Thurs: “Another bad chart for […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## IF-THEN logic with matrix expressions

January 26, 2015
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In the SAS DATA step, all variables are scalar quantities. Consequently, an IF-THEN/ELSE statement that evaluates a logical expression is unambiguous. For example, the following DATA step statements print "c=5 is TRUE" to the log if the variable c is equal to 5: if c=5 then put "c=5 is TRUE"; […]

## Seminal InfoVis Paper: Treisman, Preattentive Processing

January 26, 2015
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A paper on a specific cognitive mechanism may seems like an odd choice as the first paper in this series, but it is the one that sparked the idea for it. It is also the one that has its 30th birthday this year, having been published in August 1985. And it is an important paper, and … Continue reading Seminal InfoVis Paper: Treisman, Preattentive Processing

## Seminal InfoVis Papers: Introduction

January 26, 2015
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Some of the most fundamental and important papers in information visualization are around 30 years old. This is interesting for several reasons. For one, it shows that the field is still very young. Most research fields go back much, much further. Even within such a short time frame, though, there is a danger of not … Continue reading Seminal InfoVis Papers: Introduction

## Nassim Taleb Graphic

January 25, 2015
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This arrived a couple weeks ago from Nassim Taleb. Regardless of where your view falls on the black swan spectrum, I hope you'll like the graphic. One hallmark of a good graphic is that it repays careful study, as with a good map (which is a good ...

## Big Analytics

January 25, 2015
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Technology Predictions for 2015 For 2015, Bing predicts the same three technologies for all continents to be in the first …Continue reading →

## Big Analytics

January 25, 2015
By

Technology Predictions for 2015 For 2015, Bing predicts the same three technologies for all continents to be in the first …Continue reading →

## Tell me what you don’t know

January 25, 2015
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We’ll ask an expert, or even a student, to “tell me what you know” about some topic. But now I’m thinking it makes more sense to ask people to tell us what they don’t know. Why? Consider your understanding of a particular topic to be divided into three parts: 1. What you know. 2. What […] The post Tell me what you don’t know appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## Odds, odds ratio, language and intuition

January 25, 2015
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I was reading a statistics book the other day. I am at the beginning. In this section I read '(we) report results as odds ratios, which is more intuitive'. I must have read sentences stating this any number of times. But I don't agree.It may be my back...

## Postdoc opportunity here, with us (Jennifer Hill, Marc Scott, and me)! On quantitative education research!!

January 25, 2015
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Hop the Q-TRAIN: that is, the Quantitative Training Program, a postdoctoral research program supervised by Jennifer Hill, Marc Scott, and myself, and funded by the Institute for Education Sciences. As many of you are aware, education research is both important and challenging. And, on the technical level, we’re working on problems in Bayesian inference, multilevel […] The post Postdoc opportunity here, with us (Jennifer Hill, Marc Scott, and me)! On…

## What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri

January 25, 2015
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Here’s the follow-up to my last (reblogged) post. initially here. My take hasn’t changed much from 2013. Should we be labeling some pursuits “for entertainment only”? Why not? (See also a later post on the replication crisis in psych.) ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ I had said I would label as pseudoscience or questionable science any enterprise that regularly permits the kind of […]

## Extreme Value Modelling in Stata

January 25, 2015
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David Roodman wrote to me today, saying:"I don’t know if you use Stata, but I’ve just released a Stata package for extreme value theory. It is strongly influenced by Coles’s book on EVT and the associated ismev package for R. Using maximum likeli...

## Calling R from Scala sbt projects

January 24, 2015
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[Update: The jvmr package has been replaced by the rscala package. There is a new version of this post which replaces this one.] Overview In previous posts I’ve shown how the jvmr CRAN R package can be used to call Scala sbt projects from R and inline Scala Breeze code in R. In this post … Continue reading Calling R from Scala sbt projects

## Calling R from Scala sbt projects

January 24, 2015
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[Update: The jvmr package has been replaced by the rscala package. There is a new version of this post which replaces this one.] Overview In previous posts I’ve shown how the jvmr CRAN R package can be used to call Scala sbt projects from R and inline Scala Breeze code in R. In this post … Continue reading Calling R from Scala sbt projects

## “What then should we teach about hypothesis testing?”

January 24, 2015
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Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes in: Last week, I was looking forward to a blog post titled “Why continue to teach and use hypothesis testing?” I presume that this scheduled post merely became preempted by more timely posts. But I am still interested in reading the exchange that will follow. My feeling is […] The post “What then should we teach about hypothesis testing?” appeared first on Statistical…

## RSS feeds for statistics and related journals

January 23, 2015
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I’ve now resurrected the collection of research journals that I follow, and set it up as a shared collection in feedly. So anyone can easily subscribe to all of the same journals, or select a subset of them, to follow on feedly. There are about 90 journals on the list, mostly in statistics, but some from machine […]