Anova is great—if you interpret it as a way of structuring a model, not if you focus on F tests

October 5, 2014
By

Shravan Vasishth writes: I saw on your blog post that you listed aggregation as one of the desirable things to do. Do you agree with the following argument? I want to point out a problem with repeated measures ANOVA in talk: In a planned experiment, say a 2×2 design, when we do a repeated measures […]

Read more »

Bayes models from SAS PROC MCMC in R, post 2

October 5, 2014
By

This is my second post in converting SAS's PROC MCMC examples in R. The task in his week is determining the transformation parameter in a Box-Cox transformation. SAS only determines Lambda, but I am not so sure about that. What I used to do was get an ...

Read more »

Diederik Stapel hired to teach “social philosophy” because students got tired of success stories… or something (rejected post)

October 5, 2014
By
Diederik Stapel hired to teach “social philosophy” because students got tired of success stories… or something (rejected post)

Oh My*. (“But I can succeed as a social philosopher”) The following is from Retraction Watch. UPDATE: OCT 10, 2014** “Curtain up on second act for Dutch fraudster Stapel: College teacher” Diederik Stapel, the Dutch social psychologist and admitted data fabricator — and owner of 54 retraction notices — is now teaching at a college in the town of […]

Read more »

On efficient algorithms for finding the goddamn endnotes

October 4, 2014
By
On efficient algorithms for finding the goddamn endnotes

IntroductionIn many recent books, the goddamn endnotes are numbered sequentially within each chapter, but chapter numbers seldom appear in the header on each page.  So a reader who wants to find a goddamn endnote typically has to search backward t...

Read more »

Carrie McLaren was way out in front of the anti-Gladwell bandwagon

October 4, 2014
By

Here she was back in 2005, way before Gladwell-bashing became cool.

Read more »

World Wide Wage

October 4, 2014
By
World Wide Wage

South Koreans earn, on average, $33,140 per year (PPP), making them almost as rich as Britons. However, Koreans also work 30% more hours than Britons, making their per-hour wage considerably less than a British wage. In fact, the Korean wage of $15 per hour (PPP) is comparable to that of a Czech or Slovakian. Here […]

Read more »

A patently pointless picture

October 3, 2014
By
A patently pointless picture

I am mystified by the intention behind this chart, published in NYT Magazine (Sept 14, 2014). It is not a data visualization since the circles were not placed to scale. The 650 and 660 should have been further to the...

Read more »

65% of principals say that at least 30% of students . . . wha??

October 3, 2014
By

Alan Sloane writes: The OECD put out a report drawing on their PISA and TALIS data: http://oecdeducationtoday.blogspot.ie/2014/07/poverty-and-perception-of-poverty-how.html I notice that it’s already attracted a NY Times op-ed by David Leonhart: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/23/upshot/principals-in-us-are-more-likely-to-consider-their-students-poor.html There are a number of things I find strange in its analysis and interpretation but, for starters, there’s the horizontal axis in the chart […]

Read more »

Ebola: Beds, Labs, and Warnings? Can they help? (Shiny App)

October 3, 2014
By
Ebola: Beds, Labs, and Warnings? Can they help? (Shiny App)

A month ago when the WHO was projecting estimates of the effect of current outbreak of Ebola being as deadly as affecting 20,000 people, I ran some elementary modelling and found that these estimates are far too small given the current trend.  The...

Read more »

Which double letters appear most frequently in English text?

October 3, 2014
By
Which double letters appear most frequently in English text?

Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and caldron bubble.     Macbeth, Act IV, Scene I For the cyptanalyst or recreational puzzle solver, "double double" does not lead to toil or trouble. Just the opposite: The occurrence of a double-letter bigram in an enciphered word puzzle is quite fortunate. Certain double […]

Read more »

Consumer Preference Driven by Benefits and Affordances, Yet Management Sees Only Products and Features

October 3, 2014
By
Consumer Preference Driven by Benefits and Affordances, Yet Management Sees Only Products and Features

Return on Investment (ROI) is management's bottom line. Consequently, everything must be separated and assigned a row with associated costs and profits. Will we make more by adding another product to our line? Will we lose sales by limiting the feature...

Read more »

Rss move

October 2, 2014
By

Our RSS feed is now directly accessible via andrewgelman.com/feed – no need to go through feedburner. You need to resubscribe to the feed.

Read more »

The Drake index for academics

October 2, 2014
By

I think academic indices are pretty silly; maybe we should introduce so many academic indices that people can't even remember which one is which. There are pretty serious flaws with both citation indices and social media indices that I think render them pretty meaningless in a lot of ways. Regardless of these obvious flaws I

Read more »

The Rise of the Samurai Pitcher

October 2, 2014
By
The Rise of the Samurai Pitcher

Masahiro Tanaka stands on the mound, rubbing the ball vigorously between his hands. It's a crisp, cool night in the Bronx. Stepping back, he digs his right foot into the rubber, winds up and, with a seven-foot stretch, steps towards the catcher, unleas...

Read more »

International Journal of Epidemiology versus Hivemind and the Datagoround

October 2, 2014
By
International Journal of Epidemiology versus Hivemind and the Datagoround

The Hivemind wins (see the comment thread here, which is full of detective work from various commenters). As I wrote as a postscript to that earlier post, maybe we should call this the “stone soup” or “Bem” phenomenon, when a highly flawed wor...

Read more »

Some Initial Observations on Replications as Class Projects

October 2, 2014
By

I taught the graduate course in linear models at UB last semester and a major portion of the course was a replication project. Here are a few quick observations. Building the course around a replication project has made organizing the course a lot easier. After all, my ultimate goal at the end of the semester is that […]

Read more »

Princeton’s loss of nerve

October 2, 2014
By
Princeton’s loss of nerve

I have earlier reported that Princeton's new President has initiated a review of their "grade deflation" policy that was put in almost ten years ago. As you may recall (link), grading in U.S. colleges has become a farce: at top-tier schools, getting an A means you are an average student; not getting an A is many times more informative than getting an A. The new administration at Princeton has now…

Read more »

Eight Years of eagereyes

October 2, 2014
By
Eight Years of eagereyes

What is the purpose of blogging about visualization? Is it to make fun of the bad stuff? Is it to point to pretty things? Is it to explain why things are good or bad? Is it to expand the landscape of ideas and break new ground? Or is it to discuss matters at great length that ultimately don't matter all that much?

Read more »

October Reading

October 1, 2014
By
October Reading

October already!Chauvel, C. and J. O'Quigley, 2014. Tests for comparing estimated survival functions. Biometrika, 101, 535-552. Choi, I., 2014. Unit root tests for dependent and heterogeneous micropanels. Discussion Paper No. 2014-04, Research Ins...

Read more »

Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?

October 1, 2014
By
Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?

Congratulations to Faye Flam for finally getting her article published at the Science Times at the New York Times, “The odds, continually updated” after months of reworking and editing, interviewing and reinterviewing. I’m grateful too, that one remark from me remained. Seriously I am. A few comments: The Monty Hall example is simple probability not statistics, and finding that fisherman […]

Read more »

In defense of stories and classroom activities, from a resubmission letter from 1999

October 1, 2014
By

I was going through my files looking for some old data (which I still haven’t found!) and came across a letter from 1999 accompanying the submission of a revision of this article with Glickman. Here’s a part of the letter, a response to some questions of one of the reviewers: With regard to the comment […]

Read more »

Can anyone guess what went wrong here?

October 1, 2014
By

OK, here’s a puzzle for all of you. I received the following email: Dear Professor Gelman: The editor of ** asked me to write to see if you would be willing to review MS ** entitled ** We are hoping for a review within the next 2-3 weeks if possible. I would appreciate if you […]

Read more »

How to choose colors for maps and heat maps

October 1, 2014
By
How to choose colors for maps and heat maps

Have you ever looked as a statistical graph that uses bright garish colors and thought, "Why in the world did that guy choose those awful colors?" Don't be "that guy"! Your choice of colors for a graph can make a huge difference in how well your visualization is perceived by […]

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe