## An example of hierarchical conditional-logistic Bayesian estimation, applied to punishment choice in a public goods game.

November 30, 2014
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Conditional-logistic regression and softmax regression (a.k.a. multinomial logit regression) are covered in Chapter 22 of DBDA2E, but no examples of hierarchical versions are given in that chapter. An example of hierarchical conditional-logistic Bayesi...

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## Change in temperature in Netherlands over the last century

November 30, 2014
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I read a post 'race for the warmest year' at sargasso.nl. They used a plot, originating from Ed Hawkins to see how 2014 progressed to be warmest year. Obviously I wanted to make the same plot using R. In addition, I wondered which parts of the year had...

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## Unstrooping names

November 29, 2014
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Baptiste Coulmont writes: Following your recent blog post on stroopy names, I do not resist the temptation to send you a recent article on first name changes in France. The point of the article is simple: people who change their first names often explicitly speak about national identity changes in their request for a new […] The post Unstrooping names appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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## The A. R. Bergstrom Prize, 2015

November 28, 2014
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© 2014, David E. Giles

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## The A. R. Bergstrom Prize, 2015

November 28, 2014
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© 2014, David E. Giles

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## How can I learn Bayesian modeling?

November 28, 2014
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An email inquires:Dear Sir, Greetings. I am a PhD ... student based in [country]. I work in the area of [...] and much of the new models in this area are based on Bayesian approach. I too feel this approach needs to [be] adopted ... . I Sir would too l...

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## Arizona plagiarism update

November 28, 2014
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More details on the Matthew Whitaker case from Brian Gratton and from Rick Shenkman. Shenkman even goes to the trouble of interviewing some of the people involved. It’s not pretty. One of the people involved in this sad, sad story, is Michael Crow, formerly at Columbia and currently president of the University of Arizona Arizona […] The post Arizona plagiarism update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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## Good intention/bad practice?

November 28, 2014
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As part of the newly established Statistics/Health Economics seminars that our group is now organising at UCL, we are preparing a very exciting event for December 15th (so basically just a couple of weeks away).A few of us got to talk about several gen...

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## Bayes Pharma 2015 – call for abstracts

November 28, 2014
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The organisation of the next Bayes Pharma conference is in full swing. We've confirmed the invited speakers and finalised quite a few of the details too. We've now opened the call for abstracts.A flyer with some extra info is available from here. Final...

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## Mathematical Statistics Lesson of the Day – Complete Statistics

$Mathematical Statistics Lesson of the Day – Complete Statistics$

The set-up for today’s post mirrors my earlier Statistics Lesson of the Day on sufficient statistics. Suppose that you collected data in order to estimate a parameter .  Let be the probability density function (PDF)* for . Let be a statistic based on . If implies that then  is said to be complete.  To deconstruct this esoteric […]

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## Le Monde puzzle [#887quater]

November 27, 2014
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And yet another resolution of this combinatorics Le Monde mathematical puzzle: that puzzle puzzled many more people than usual! This solution is by Marco F, using a travelling salesman representation and existing TSP software. N is a golden number if the sequence {1,2,…,N} can be reordered so that the sum of any consecutive pair is a […]

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## Quantitative literacy is tough! Or, I had no idea that, in 1958, 96% of Americans disapproved of interracial marriage!

November 27, 2014
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Mark Palko linked to this data-rich cartoon by Randall Munroe: And I was stunned, first by the data on interracial marriage and then, retrospectively, by my earlier ignorance of these data. Was approval of interracial marriage only 4% in 1958? I had no idea. I looked it up at the Gallup site and it seems […] The post Quantitative literacy is tough! Or, I had no idea that, in 1958,…

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## New Australian data on the HMD

November 27, 2014
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The Human Mortality Database is a wonderful resource for anyone interested in demographic data. It is a carefully curated collection of high quality deaths and population data from 37 countries, all in a consistent format with consistent definitions. I have used it many times and never cease to be amazed at the care taken to maintain […]

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## Confidence vs. Credibility Intervals

November 26, 2014
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$\theta$

Tomorrow, for the final lecture of the Mathematical Statistics course, I will try to illustrate – using Monte Carlo simulations – the difference between classical statistics, and the Bayesien approach. The (simple) way I see it is the following, for frequentists, a probability is a measure of the the frequency of repeated events, so the interpretation is that parameters are fixed (but unknown), and data are random for Bayesians, a probability…

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## Leif and Uri need to hang out with a better class of statisticians

November 26, 2014
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Noted psychology researchers and methods skeptics Leif Nelson and Uri Simonsohn write: A recent Psych Science (.pdf) paper found that sports teams can perform worse when they have too much talent. For example, in Study 3 they found that NBA teams with a higher percentage of talented players win more games, but that teams with […] The post Leif and Uri need to hang out with a better class of…

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## The Wishart distribution: Covariance matrices for multivariate normal data

November 26, 2014
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I've written about how to generate a sample from a multivariate normal (MVN) distribution in SAS by using the RANDNORMAL function in SAS/IML software. Last week a SAS/IML programmer showed me a program that simulated MVN data and computed the resulting covariance matrix for each simulated sample. The purpose of […]

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## Warning message in runjags turned off in new version of DBDA2E utilities

November 26, 2014
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A reader pointed out that programs that accompany DBDA2E and use runjags produce a disconcerting warning message about "starting parallel chains without setting different PRNG for each chain. Different .RNG.name values have been added to each set of ...

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## How likelihoodists exaggerate evidence from statistical tests

November 25, 2014
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Have you ever noticed that some leading advocates of a statistical account, say a testing account A, upon discovering account A is unable to handle a certain kind of important testing problem that a rival testing account, account B, has no trouble at all with, will mount an argument that being able to handle that kind of problem […]

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## HarvardX Biomedical Data Science Open Online Training Curriculum launches on January 19

November 25, 2014
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We recently received funding from the NIH BD2K initiative to develop MOOCs for biomedical data science. Our first offering will be version 2 of my Data Analysis for Genomics course which will launch on January 19. In this version, the course will be turned into an 8 course series and you can get a certificate in each one

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## Thanks for Downloading!

November 25, 2014
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In an earlier post I mentioned a paper that I co-authored with Xiao Ling. The paper is "Bias reduction for the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of the generalized Rayleigh family of distributions. Communications in Statistics - ...

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## The World Cup Problem Part 2: Germany v. Argentina

November 25, 2014
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This is the second of two articles about Bayesian analysis applied to World Cup soccer.  The previous article is here.Earlier this semester I posed this problem to my Bayesian statistics class at Olin College:In the final match of t...

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## I (almost and inadvertently) followed Dan Kahan’s principles in my class today, and that was a good thing (would’ve even been more of a good thing had I realized what I was doing and done it better, but I think I will do better in the future, which has already happened by the time you read this; remember, the blog is on a nearly 2-month lag)

November 25, 2014
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As you might recall, the Elizabeth K. Dollard Professor says that to explain a concept to an unbeliever, explain it conditionally. For example, if you want to talk evolution with a religious fundamentalist, don’t try to convince him or her that evolution is true; instead preface each explanation with, “According to the theory of evolution […] The post I (almost and inadvertently) followed Dan Kahan’s principles in my class today,…

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## An uninformative end state

November 25, 2014
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This chart cited by ZeroHedge feels like a parody. It's a bar chart that doesn't utilize the length of bars. It's a dot plot that doesn't utilize the position of dots. The range of commute times (between city centers and...

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