Round values while preserve their rounded sum in R

July 28, 2016
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After an embarrassing teleconference in which I presented a series of percentages that did not sum to 100 (as they should have), I found some R code on stackoverflow.com to help me to avoid this in the future. In general, the sum of rounded numbers (e.g., using the base::round function) is not the same as … Continue reading Round values while preserve their rounded sum in R →

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Statistics positions available at Monash University

Statistics positions available at Monash University

We are hiring again, and looking for people in statistics, econometrics and related fields (such as actuarial science, machine learning, and business analytics). We have a strong business analytics group (with particular expertise in data visualizati...

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Bayesian Essentials with R [book review]

July 27, 2016
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Bayesian Essentials with R [book review]

[A review of Bayesian Essentials that appeared in Technometrics two weeks ago, with the first author being rechristened Jean-Michael!] “Overall this book is a very helpful and useful introduction to Bayesian methods of data analysis. I found the use of R, the code in the book, and the companion R package, bayess, to be helpful […]

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On Economics Seminars……..

July 27, 2016
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On Economics Seminars……..

© 2016, David E. Giles

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My JSM 2016 itinerary

July 27, 2016
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The Joint Statistical Meetings are in Chicago next week. I thought I’d write down the set of sessions that I plan to attend. Please let me know if you have further suggestions. First things first: snacks. Search the program for “spotlight” or “while supplies last” for the free snacks being offered. Or go to the […]

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What makes a mathematical formula beautiful?

July 27, 2016
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What makes a mathematical formula beautiful?

Hiro Minato pointed me to this paper (hyped here) by Semir Zeki, John Romaya, Dionigi Benincasa, and Michael Atiyah on “The experience of mathematical beauty and its neural correlates,” who report: We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to image the activity in the brains of 15 mathematicians when they viewed mathematical formulae which they […] The post What makes a mathematical formula beautiful? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Apple Watch users overwhelmingly satisfied, says a survey of satisfied users

July 27, 2016
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Apple Watch users overwhelmingly satisfied, says a survey of satisfied users

As word of plummeting sales of Apple Watch spread around last week, an entrepreneur went on Medium to sing a different tune: his survey apparently uncovered a "paradox" - Apple Watch users are "overwhelmingly satisfied, yet not recommending" the product. The "overwhelming" bit comes from this chart: This data portray a hugely successful product in which almost nobody expressed any negative feelings. This next chart is even more impressive. Apparently,…

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How to visualize a kernel density estimate

July 27, 2016
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How to visualize a kernel density estimate

A kernel density estimate (KDE) is a nonparametric estimate for the density of a data sample. A KDE can help an analyst determine how to model the data: Does the KDE look like a normal curve? Like a mixture of normals? Is there evidence of outliers in the data? In […] The post How to visualize a kernel density estimate appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Notes from the 4th R in Insurance Conference

July 27, 2016
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Notes from the 4th R in Insurance Conference

The 4th R in Insurance conference took place at Cass Business School London on 11 July 2016. This one-day conference focused once more on the wide range of applications of R in insurance, actuarial science and beyond. The conference programme covered t...

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The Forecasting Performance of Models for Cointegrated Data

July 27, 2016
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The Forecasting Performance of Models for Cointegrated Data

Here's an interesting practical question that arises when you're considering different forms of econometric models for forecasting time-series data:"Which type of model will perform best when the data are non-stationary, and perhaps cointegrated?"To an...

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Thanks, eBay!

July 27, 2016
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Thanks, eBay!

Our recent Stan short course went very well, and we wanted to thank Julia Neznanova and Paul Burt of eBay NYC for giving us the space where we held the class. The post Thanks, eBay! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ...

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More evidence that even top researchers routinely misinterpret p-values

July 26, 2016
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More evidence that even top researchers routinely misinterpret p-values

Blake McShane writes: I wanted to write to you about something related to your ongoing posts on replication in psychology as well as your recent post the ASA statement on p-values. In addition to the many problems you and others have documented with the p-value as a measure of evidence (both those computed “honestly” and […] The post More evidence that even top researchers routinely misinterpret p-values appeared first on…

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An important Example of Simultaneously Wide and Dense Data

July 26, 2016
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By the way, related to my last post on wide and dense data, an important example of analysis of data that are both wide and dense is the high-frequency high-dimensional factor modeling of Pelger and Ait-Sahalia and Xiu.  Effectively they trea...

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Bayesian Inference with Stan for Pharmacometrics Class

July 25, 2016
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Bob Carpenter, Daniel Lee, and Michael Betancourt will be teaching the 3-day class starting on 19 September in Paris. Following is the outline for the course: Day 1 Introduction to Bayesian statistics Likelihood / sampling distributions Priors, Posteriors via Bayes’s rule Posterior expectations and quantiles Events as expectations of indicator functions Introduction to Stan Basic […] The post Bayesian Inference with Stan for Pharmacometrics Class appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Killer O

July 25, 2016
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Killer O

Taggert Brooks points to this excellent news article by George Johnson, who reports: Epidemiologists have long been puzzled by a strange pattern in their data: People living at higher altitudes appear less likely to get lung cancer. . . . The higher you live, the thinner the air, so maybe oxygen is a cause of […] The post Killer O appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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On deck this week

July 25, 2016
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Mon: Killer O Tues: More evidence that even top researchers routinely misinterpret p-values Wed: What makes a mathematical formula beautiful? Thurs: Fish cannot carry p-values Fri: Does Benadryl make you senile? Challenges in research communication Sat: What recommendations to give when a medical study is not definitive (which of course will happen all the time, […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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The Action is in Wide and/or Dense Data

July 25, 2016
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I recently blogged on varieties of Big Data: (1) tall, (2) wide, and (3) dense.Presumably tall data are the least interesting insofar as the only way to get a long calendar span is to sit around and wait, in contrast to wide and dense data, which now a...

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Statistical model building and the SELECT procedures in SAS

July 25, 2016
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Statistical model building and the SELECT procedures in SAS

Last week I read an interesting paper by Bob Rodriguez: "Statistical Model Building for Large, Complex Data: Five New Directions in SAS/STAT Software." In it, Rodriguez summarizes five modern techniques for building predictive models and highlights recent SAS/STAT procedures that implement those techniques. The paper discusses the following high-performance (HP) […] The post Statistical model building and the SELECT procedures in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Mathematics teaching Rockstar – Jo Boaler

July 25, 2016
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Mathematics teaching Rockstar – Jo Boaler

Moving around the education sector My life in education has included being a High School maths teacher, then teaching at university for 20 years. I then made resources and gave professional development workshops for secondary school teachers. It was exciting … Continue reading →

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“Children seek historical traces of owned objects”

July 24, 2016
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Recently in the sister blog: An object’s mental representation includes not just visible attributes but also its nonvisible history. The present studies tested whether preschoolers seek subtle indicators of an object’s history, such as a mark acquired during its handling. Five studies with 169 children 3–5 years of age and 97 college students found that […] The post “Children seek historical traces of owned objects” appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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“The Dark Side of Power Posing”

July 23, 2016
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Shravan points us to this post from Jay Van Bavel a couple years ago. It’s an interesting example because Bavel expresses skepticism about the “power pose” hype but he makes the same general mistake of Carney, Cuddy, Yap, and other researchers in this area in that he overreacts to every bit of noise that’s been […] The post “The Dark Side of Power Posing” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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On accuracy

July 22, 2016
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On accuracy

In our last article on the algebra of classifier measures we encouraged readers to work through Nina Zumel’s original “Statistics to English Translation” series. This series has become slightly harder to find as we have use the original category designation “statistics to English translation” for additional work. To make things easier here are links to … Continue reading On accuracy

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When do statistical rules affect drug approval?

July 22, 2016
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When do statistical rules affect drug approval?

Someone writes in: I have MS and take a disease-modifying drug called Copaxone. Sandoz developed a generic version​ of Copaxone​ and filed for FDA approval. Teva, the manufacturer of Copaxone, filed a petition opposing that approval (surprise!). FDA rejected Teva’s petitions and approved the generic. My insurance company encouraged me to switch to the generic. […] The post When do statistical rules affect drug approval? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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