Note: The winner of the Book Quiz Round 2 was announced on my book blog. Congratulations to the winners. You can get your own copy of Numbersense here. *** A common advice for anyone living in the U.S. is "read...

The second winner of the Book Quiz is Nancy, from Washington DC. Congratulations! Both winners wrote back saying they feel like buying a lottery ticket. The odds of winning that is much lower, be warned. *** Joe Dager, from Business901, and I chatted about Numbersense recently, and the interview will show up soon as a podcast. If you didn't see it last December, he did a very nice interview with…

It seems like Monday was a big hit at JSM with Nate Silver's talk and all. Rafa estimates that there were about 1 million people there (+/- 1 million). Ramnath Vaidyanathan has a nice summary of the talk and the Q&A … Continue reading →

You produce a non-parametric distribution. Then you obtain, say, 10 random variables (RV) from this non-parametric distribution- much the same way as you would obtain random variables from a (parametric) normal distribution with stated mean and variance. But unlike the parametric distribution, where our RVs would occur around the mean (our parameter), RVs from a […]

I recently came across the Kaeppel’s Sector Seasonality Strategy which is described in Kaeppel’s Corner: Sector Seasonality and updated in Kaeppel’s Corner: Get Me Back, Clarence. Today I want to show how to back-test the Kaeppel’s Sector Seasonality Strategy using the Systematic Investor Toolbox. Following are the strategy rules: Buy Fidelity Select Technology (FSPTX) at […]

It looks increasingly likely that Gareth Bale will transfer from Tottenham to Real Madrid for a world record transfer fee. Negotiations are ongoing, with both parties keen to get the best deal possible deal with the transfer fee. Reports speculate that this transfer fee will be anywhere in the very wide range of £80m to […]

Yu Xie thought I’d have something to say about this recent paper, “Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China’s Huai River policy,” by Yuyu Chen, Avraham Ebenstein, Michael Greenstone, and Hongbin Li, which begins: This paper’s findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total […]The post Evidence on the impact of sustained use of polynomial regression on causal inference…

In my last post I praised indirect inference (IE) for its ease-of-use: just simulate the model and fit a simple auxiliary model to the simulated and real-world data, after which evaluation of the objective is immediate. In contrast, likelihood analysi...

I'm sadly not able to attend the Joint Statistical Meetings this year (where Nate Silver is the keynote speaker!) in the great city of Montreal. I'm looking forward to checking out the chatter on #JSM2013 but in the meantime, here are … Continue reading →

I've been working on a package called [crayon-542d4da63d2ad437420586-i/] that helps create nice-looking plots in R and it is now up on CRAN. You can get it by typing [crayon-542d4da63d2c1340643089/] directly into the command line in R. See how it works by typing [crayon-542d4da63d2c9569539234-i/] or reading the details here. Below I describe the basic structure and functions. […]

This article describes how to generate random samples from the multinomial distribution in SAS. The content is taken from Chapter 8 of my book Simulating Data with SAS. The multinomial distribution is a discrete multivariate distribution. Suppose there are k different types of items in a box, such as a [...]

We often use AIC to discern the best model among candidates. Now suppose we have two (non-parametric) models, which use mass points and weights to model a random variable: model A uses 4 mass points to model a random variable (i.e. the height of men in Singapore) model B uses 5 mass points to mode […]

Symposium magazine (“Where Academia Meets Public Life”) has some fun stuff this month: Learning to Read All Over Again Lutz Koepnick What produces better students – reading in print or reading on-line? The answer is both. The Elusive Quest for Research Innovation Claude S. Fischer Much of what is considered “new research” has actually been […]The post New issue of Symposium magazine appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

The $4 million teacher. I love the idea that teaching is becoming a competitive industry where the best will get the kind of pay they really really deserve. I can't think of another profession where the ratio of (if you … Continue reading →

Histogram: LM estimates of Intercepts Histogram: LM estimates of Gradient QQ Plot: LM estimates of Intercepts QQ Plot: LM estimates of Gradient Figure 1: Gradient appears to follow a normal distribution more than intercept . When do we use a parametric model, and when do we use a non-parametric one? In […]