Eight Years of eagereyes

October 2, 2014
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Eight Years of eagereyes

What is the purpose of blogging about visualization? Is it to make fun of the bad stuff? Is it to point to pretty things? Is it to explain why things are good or bad? Is it to expand the landscape of ideas and break new ground? Or is it to discuss matters at great length that ultimately don't matter all that much?

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October Reading

October 1, 2014
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October Reading

October already!Chauvel, C. and J. O'Quigley, 2014. Tests for comparing estimated survival functions. Biometrika, 101, 535-552. Choi, I., 2014. Unit root tests for dependent and heterogeneous micropanels. Discussion Paper No. 2014-04, Research Ins...

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Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?

October 1, 2014
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Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?

Congratulations to Faye Flam for finally getting her article published at the Science Times at the New York Times, “The odds, continually updated” after months of reworking and editing, interviewing and reinterviewing. I’m grateful too, that one remark from me remained. Seriously I am. A few comments: The Monty Hall example is simple probability not statistics, and finding that fisherman […]

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In defense of stories and classroom activities, from a resubmission letter from 1999

October 1, 2014
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I was going through my files looking for some old data (which I still haven’t found!) and came across a letter from 1999 accompanying the submission of a revision of this article with Glickman. Here’s a part of the letter, a response to some questions of one of the reviewers: With regard to the comment […]

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Can anyone guess what went wrong here?

October 1, 2014
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OK, here’s a puzzle for all of you. I received the following email: Dear Professor Gelman: The editor of ** asked me to write to see if you would be willing to review MS ** entitled ** We are hoping for a review within the next 2-3 weeks if possible. I would appreciate if you […]

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How to choose colors for maps and heat maps

October 1, 2014
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How to choose colors for maps and heat maps

Have you ever looked as a statistical graph that uses bright garish colors and thought, "Why in the world did that guy choose those awful colors?" Don't be "that guy"! Your choice of colors for a graph can make a huge difference in how well your visualization is perceived by […]

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p-value vs Bayes

September 30, 2014
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p-value vs Bayes

p-value and Bayes are the two hottest words in Statistics. Actually I still can not get why the debate between frequentist  statistics and Bayesian statistics can last so long. What is the essence arguments behind it? (Any one can help me with this?) In my point of view, they are just two ways for solving […]

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You think P-values are bad? I say show me the data.

September 30, 2014
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Both the scientific community and the popular press are freaking out about reproducibility right now. I think they have good reason to, because even the US Congress is now investigating the transparency of science. It has been driven by the very public reproducibility disasters in genomics and economics. There are three major components to a

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Are Ivy League schools overrated?

September 30, 2014
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I won’t actually answer the above question, as I am offering neither a rating of these schools nor a measure of how others rate them (which would be necessary to calibrate the “overrated” claim). What I am doing is responding to an email from Mark Palko, who wrote: I [Palko] am in broad agreement with […]

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Example 2014.11: Contrasts the basic way for R

September 30, 2014
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Example 2014.11: Contrasts the basic way for R

As we discuss in section 6.1.4 of the second edition, R and SAS handle categorical variables and their parameterization in models quite differently. SAS treats them on a procedure-by-procedure basis, which leads to some odd differences in capabilities...

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Running RStudio via Docker in the Cloud

September 30, 2014
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Running RStudio via Docker in the Cloud

Deploying applications via Docker container is the current talk of town. I have heard about Docker and played around with it a little, but when Dirk Eddelbuettel posted his R and Docker talk last Friday I got really excited and had to have a go myself....

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Running RStudio via Docker in the Cloud

September 30, 2014
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Running RStudio via Docker in the Cloud

Deploying applications via Docker container is the current talk of town. I have heard about Docker and played around with it a little, but when Dirk Eddelbuettel posted his R and Docker talk last Friday I got really excited and had to have a go myself....

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No, I didn’t say that!

September 30, 2014
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Faye Flam wrote a solid article for the New York Times on Bayesian statistics, and as part of her research she spent some time on the phone with me awhile ago discussing the connections between Bayesian inference and the crisis in science criticism. My longer thoughts on this topic are in my recent article, “The […]

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Julia: Random Number Generator Functions

September 30, 2014
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In this post I will explore the built in Random Number functions in Julia. These can be found in the documentation at: #random-numbersAs with most random number generators it is useful to manually set the 'seed'. This allows for replication of results ...

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Two hour marathon in 2041

September 30, 2014
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Two hour marathon in 2041

Today Dennis Kimetto ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:02:57, shaving 26 seconds off the previous world record.  That means it's time to check in on the world record progression and update my update from last year of  my article from two year...

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TURF Analysis: A Bad Answer to the Wrong Question

September 29, 2014
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TURF Analysis: A Bad Answer to the Wrong Question

Now that R has a package performing Total Unduplicated Reach and Frequency (TURF) Analysis, it might be a good time to issue a warning to all R users. DON'T DO IT!The technique itself is straight out of media buying from the 1950s. Given some number of...

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It’s time for job application now!

September 29, 2014
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It’s time for job application now!

I collected the following series on applying for faculty positions in 2011, when I was in my second year PhD. Now it’s my turn to apply for jobs. I will share the following useful materials with all you who want to apply for jobs this year. Applying for Jobs: Application Materials Applying for Jobs : […]

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Doing Bayesian Data Analysis in Python

September 29, 2014
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Do you prefer Python? Some readers have undertaken to translate the computer programs from Doing Bayesian Data Analysis into Python, including Osvaldo Martin, who has this GitHub site for his ongoing project. If you are interested in what he has done, ...

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Some general principles of Bayesian data analysis, arising from a Stan analysis of John Lee Anderson’s height

September 29, 2014
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Some general principles of Bayesian data analysis, arising from a Stan analysis of John Lee Anderson’s height

God is in every leaf of every tree. The leaf in question today is the height of journalist and Twitter aficionado Jon Lee Anderson, a man who got some attention a couple years ago after disparaging some dude for having too high a tweets-to-followers ratio. Anderson called the other guy a “little twerp” which made […]

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On deck this week

September 29, 2014
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Mon: Some general principles of Bayesian data analysis, arising from a Stan analysis of John Lee Anderson’s height Tues: Are Ivy League schools overrated? Wed: Can anyone guess what went wrong here? Thurs: What went wrong Fri: 65% of principals say that at least 30% of students . . . wha?? Sat: Carrie McLaren was […]

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Hypothesis: pie charts are correlated with muddled thinking. But which direction is the causal arrow?

September 29, 2014
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Hypothesis: pie charts are correlated with muddled thinking. But which direction is the causal arrow?

RealClimate (link) deserves a pie in the face for printing a set of pie charts. (Thanks to @guitarzan for the tip.) This is a case of the chart telling a different story from the data. Let's look at one of...

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A Mind-Blowing Optimal Prediction Result

September 29, 2014
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A Mind-Blowing Optimal Prediction Result

I concluded my previous post with:Consider, for example, the following folk theorem: "Under asymmetric loss, the optimal prediction is conditionally biased." The folk theorem is false. But how can that be?What's true is this: The conditional mean is th...

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Create discrete heat maps in SAS/IML

September 29, 2014
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Create discrete heat maps in SAS/IML

In a previous article I introduced the HEATMAPCONT subroutine in SAS/IML 13.1, which makes it easy to visualize matrices by using heat maps with continuous color ramps. This article introduces a companion subroutine. The HEATMAPDISC subroutine, which also requires SAS/IML 13.1, is designed to visualize matrices that have a small […]

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