Birthdays, baseball, zombies, luxury . . . and fraac! The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

When I was in the sixth grade, I learned an iterative procedure for computing square roots by hand. Yes, I said by hand. Scientific calculators with a square root key were not yet widely available, so I and previous generations of children suffered through learning to calculate square roots by […] The post The Babylonian method for finding square roots by hand appeared first on The DO Loop.

The 6th edition of Designing the User Interface just came out. This is one of the central books in HCI. This edition is also notable because it adds a lot of fresh blood to the list of authors. Ben Shneiderman published the first edition of the book in 1986. Since the third edition, Catherine Plaisant has been … Continue reading New Edition of Designing the User Interface

A paper in Nature this week that uses reversible-jump MCMC, phylogenetic trees, and Bayes factors. And that looks at institutionalised or ritual murders in Austronesian cultures. How better can it get?! “by applying Bayesian phylogenetic methods (…) we find strong support for models in which human sacrifice stabilizes social stratification once stratification has arisen, and […]

Our recent discussion of the problems with peer review reminded me of this amusing/horrifying story from a few years ago, when some researchers noticed a data coding error in a published paper Once it was noticed, the error was obvious: But the authors of the original paper had that never-back-down attitude. So instead of thanking […] The post Peer review abuse flashback appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Luke Miratrix writes: In the applied stats class I’m teaching on hierarchical models I’m giving the students (a mix of graduate students, many from the education school, and undergrads) a taste of Stan. I have to give them some “standard” way to turn Stan output into a point estimate (though of course I’ll also explain […] The post Point summary of posterior simulations? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

I (Eric) will be giving a Stan talk at the Seattle useR Group next week. Daniel Lee and Ben Goodrich will be there as well. If you are in the Seattle area on Tuesday, please stop by and say hello. Thanks to Zach Stednick for organizing this meetup. Th...

Leicester City was a 5000-to-1 shot to win the championship—and they did it. Donald Trump wasn’t supposed to win the Republican nomination—last summer Nate gave him a 2% chance—and it looks like he will win. For that matter, Nate only gave Bernie Sanders a 7% chance, and he came pretty close. Soccer There’s been a […] The post Leicester City and Donald Trump: How to think about predictions and longshot…

Just about 10 years ago, I wrote my first of many articles about the importance of reproducible research. Since that article, one of the points I’ve made is that the key issue to resolve was one of tools and infrastructure. At the time, many people w...

Our publisher Manning Publications is celebrating the release of a new data science in Python title Introducing Data Science by offering it and other Manning titles at half off until Wednesday, May 18. As part of the promotion you can also use the supplied discount code mlcielenlt for half off some R titles including R … Continue reading For a short time: Half Off Some Manning Data Science Books

Mark Palko points us to this op-ed in which psychiatrist Richard Friedman writes: There are also easy and powerful ways to enhance learning in young people. For example, there is intriguing evidence that the attitude that young people have about their own intelligence — and what their teachers believe — can have a big impact […] The post Happy talk, meet the Edlin factor appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Just like the original Jaws 2, this story features neither Richard Dreyfus nor Steven Spielberg. It all started when Dan Kahan sent me the following puzzle: Match the resonses of large nationally representative sample to supporting these policy items. I let this languish in my inbox for awhile until Kahan taunted me by letting me […] The post MAPKIA 2: Josh and Drew shred the CCP/APPC “Political Polarization Literacy” test!…

Optimization is a primary tool of computational statistics. SAS/IML software provides a suite of nonlinear optimizers that makes it easy to find an optimum for a user-defined objective function. You can perform unconstrained optimization, or define linear or nonlinear constraints for constrained optimization. Over the years I have seen many […] The post Ten tips before you run an optimization appeared first on The DO Loop.

Travelling through Seville, I arrived in Càdiz on Sunday night, along with a massive depression [weather-speaking!]. Walking through the city from the station was nonetheless pleasant as this is an town full of small streets and nice houses. If with less churches than Seville! Richard Samworth gave the first plenary talk of AISTATS 2016 with […]