A glass half full interpretation of the replicability of psychological science

October 1, 2015
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A glass half full interpretation of the replicability of psychological science

tl;dr: 77% of replication effects from the psychology replication study were in (or above) the 95% prediction interval based on the original effect size. This isn't perfect and suggests (a) there is still room for improvement, (b) the scientists who did the replication study are pretty awesome at replicating, (c) we need a better definition of

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Jason Chaffetz is the Garo Yepremian of the U.S. House of Representatives, and I don’t mean that in a good way.

October 1, 2015
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Jason Chaffetz is the Garo Yepremian of the U.S. House of Representatives, and I don’t mean that in a good way.

Mike Spagat and Paul Alper points us to this truly immoral bit of graphical manipulation, courtesy of U.S. Representative Jason Chaffetz. Here’s the evil graph: Here’s the correction: From the news article by Zachary Roth: As part of a contentious back-and-forth in which Chaffetz repeatedly cut off [Planned Parenthood president Cecile] Richards, the congressman displayed […] The post Jason Chaffetz is the Garo Yepremian of the U.S. House of Representatives,…

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Balke et al. on Real-Time Nowcasting

October 1, 2015
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Check out the new paper, "Incorporating the Beige Book in a Quantitative Index of Economic Activity," by Nathan Balke, Michael Fulmer and Ren Zhang (BFZ).[The Beige Book (BB) is a written description of U.S. economic conditions, produced by the Federal...

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Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?

October 1, 2015
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Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?

ONE YEAR AGO, the NYT “Science Times” (9/29/14) published Fay Flam’s article, first blogged here. Congratulations to Faye Flam for finally getting her article published at the Science Times at the New York Times, “The odds, continually updated” after months of reworking and editing, interviewing and reinterviewing. I’m grateful that one remark from me remained. Seriously I am. […]

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Hot hand explanation again

October 1, 2015
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Hot hand explanation again

I guess people really do read the Wall Street Journal . . . Edward Adelman sent me the above clipping and calculation and writes: What am I missing? I do not see the 60%. And Richard Rasiej sends me a longer note making the same point: So here I am, teaching another statistics class, this […] The post Hot hand explanation again appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Reading List for October

September 30, 2015
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Reading List for October

Some suggestions for the coming month:Franses, P. H., 2016. A note on the mean absolute scaled error. International Journal of Forecasting, 32, 20-22.Gorroochurn, P., 2015. On Galton's change from 'reversion' to 'regression'. American Statistician, in ...

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Arbitrage with the In-laws!

September 30, 2015
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I've just discovered the Predictit.org website, which is a "Prediction Market" where participants can place bets on the occurrence of future events, such as the outcome of political elections. Predictit.org is similar in function to the defunct website Intrade.com (Wikipedia). But, unlike Intrade.com, they seem to have done their homework with U.S. regulatory bodies beforehand. … Continue reading Arbitrage with the In-laws! →

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An unconvincing analysis claiming to debunk the health benefits of moderate drinking

September 30, 2015
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An unconvincing analysis claiming to debunk the health benefits of moderate drinking

Daniel Lakeland writes: This study on alcohol consumption (by Craig Knott, Ngaire Coombs, Emmanuel Stamatakis, and Jane Biddulph) was written up in the BMJ editorials as “Alcohol’s Evaporating health benefits.” They conveniently show their data in a table, so that they can avoid graphing a “J” shape that they constantly allude to being wrong… But […] The post An unconvincing analysis claiming to debunk the health benefits of moderate drinking…

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Don’t pick your tool before having your design

September 30, 2015
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Don’t pick your tool before having your design

My talk at Parsons seemed like a success, based on the conversation it generated, and the fact that people stuck around till the end. One of my talking points is that one should not pick a tool before having a...

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Apple Music’s Moment of Truth

September 30, 2015
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Today is the day when Apple, Inc. learns whether it's brand new streaming music service, Apple Music, is going to be a major contributor to the bottom line or just another streaming service (JASS?). Apple Music launched 3 months ago and all new users are offered a 3-month free trial. Today, that free trial ends

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Balls and urns: Discrete probability functions in SAS

September 30, 2015
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Balls and urns: Discrete probability functions in SAS

If not for probability theory, urns would appear only in funeral homes and anthologies of British poetry. But in probability and statistics, urns are ever present and contain colored balls. The removal and inspection of colored balls from an urn is a classic way to demonstrate probability, sampling, variation, and […] The post Balls and urns: Discrete probability functions in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Visualization Research, Part I: Engineering

September 30, 2015
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Visualization Research, Part I: Engineering

Conventions in visualization can seem arbitrary, and quite a few are. But there is also a vast body of research, and it is growing every day. Just how does visualization research work? How do we learn new things about visualization and how it can and should be used? There are really just two ways: make … Continue reading Visualization Research, Part I: Engineering

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Two PLOS Two

September 29, 2015
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Cosetta Minelli and I have just published an editorial on PLOS Medicine on the use of the value of information, with particular reference to risk prediction modelling. We had proposed the topic to the journal, thinking that they may not even ...

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We Used Data to Improve our HarvardX Courses: New Versions Start Oct 15

September 29, 2015
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You can sign up following links here Last semester we successfully ran version 2 of my Data Analysis course. To create the second version, the first was split into eight courses. Over 2,000 students successfully completed the first of these, but, as expected, the numbers were lower for the more advanced courses. We wanted to remove

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How to use lasso etc. in political science?

September 29, 2015
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Tom Swartz writes: I am a graduate student at Oxford with a background in economics and on the side am teaching myself more statistics and machine learning. I’ve been following your blog for some time and recently came across this post on lasso. In particular, the more I read about the machine learning community, the […] The post How to use lasso etc. in political science? appeared first on Statistical…

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ChainLadder 0.2.2 is out with improved glmReserve function

September 29, 2015
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ChainLadder 0.2.2 is out with improved glmReserve function

We released version 0.2.2 of ChainLadder a few weeks ago. This version adds back the functionality to estimate the index parameter for the compound Poisson model in glmReserve using the cplm package by Wayne Zhang. Ok, what does this all mean? I will r...

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RStan 2.8.0 is on CRAN!

September 29, 2015
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RStan 2.8.0 is available on CRAN! Installation directions can be found on RStan’s Wiki. And since I know a lot of people aren’t patient enough to read through installation instructions, the most important parts are: You (still) need a C++ toolchain. Mac: XCode. Make sure to open it once after download to accept the license. […] The post RStan 2.8.0 is on CRAN! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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3 YEARS AGO (SEPTEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

September 28, 2015
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3 YEARS AGO (SEPTEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago… MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: September 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] (Once again it was tough to pick just 3; many of the ones I selected are continued in the following posts, so please check out subsequent dates of posts that interest […]

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Le Monde puzzle [#929]

September 28, 2015
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Le Monde puzzle [#929]

A combinatorics Le Monde mathematical puzzle: In the set {1,…,12}, numbers adjacent to i are called friends of i. How many distinct subsets of size 5 can be chosen under the constraint that each number in the subset has at least a friend with him? In a brute force approach, I tried a quintuple loop […]

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Le Monde puzzle [#929]

September 28, 2015
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Le Monde puzzle [#929]

A combinatorics Le Monde mathematical puzzle: In the set {1,…,12}, numbers adjacent to i are called friends of i. How many distinct subsets of size 5 can be chosen under the constraint that each number in the subset has at least a friend with him? In a brute force approach, I tried a quintuple loop […]

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Fitting models with discrete parameters in Stan

September 28, 2015
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This book, “Bayesian Cognitive Modeling: A Practical Course,” by Michael Lee and E. J. Wagenmakers, has a bunch of examples of Stan models with discrete parameters—mixture models of various sorts—with Stan code written by Martin...

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On deck through the rest of 2015

September 28, 2015
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There’s something for everyone! I had a lot of fun just copying the titles to make this list, as I’d already forgotten about a lot of this stuff. Here are the scheduled posts, in order through 31 Dec: Fitting models with discrete parameters in Stan How to use lasso etc. in political science? An unconvincing […] The post On deck through the rest of 2015 appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Ten "one-liners" that create test matrices for statistical programmers

September 28, 2015
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Ten "one-liners" that create test matrices for statistical programmers

You've had a long day. You've implemented a custom algorithm in the SAS/IML language. But before you go home, you want to generate some matrices and test your program. If you are like me, you prefer a short statement—one line would be best. However, you also want the flexibility to […] The post Ten "one-liners" that create test matrices for statistical programmers appeared first on The DO Loop.

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