## Interview with Ani Eloyan and Betsy Ogburn

August 27, 2013
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Jeff and I interview Ani Eloyan and Betsy Ogburn, two new Assistant Professors in the Department of Biostatistics here. Jeff and I talk to Ani and Betsy about their research interests and finally answer the burning question: "What is the … Continue reading →

## The Intellectual oubliette of p-values and Confidence Intervals.

August 27, 2013
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Criticizing P-values and Confidence Intervals (CI’s) is nothing new, but my aim is different. My goal is to tear down, shred, burn and destroy them using arguments you probably haven’t seen before, aided by Entropy and it’s various ma...

## Bayesian model averaging or fitting a larger model

August 27, 2013
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Nick Firoozye writes: I had a question about BMA [Bayesian model averaging] and model combinations in general, and direct it to you since they are a basic form of hierarchical model, albeit in the simplest of forms. I wanted to ask what the underlying assumptions are that could lead to BMA improving on a larger […]The post Bayesian model averaging or fitting a larger model appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## C/C++: Mean

August 27, 2013
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Output: C Codes: C++ Codes:

## Hate the defaults

August 27, 2013
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One piece of advice I give for those wanting to get into data visualization is to trash the defaults (see the last part of this interview with me). Jon Schwabish, an economist with the government, gives a detailed example of...

## Round up of book news

August 27, 2013
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Here are links to coverage of Numbersense. David Walker and I debate whether statisticians should be a part of Big Data in Significance. (link - requires registration). Significance is a joint publication of the Royal Statistical Society and the American Statistical Association, and a great source of applied statistics. Walker fears Big Data is pure froth while I outline several problems in which statisticians can play a key role. Princeton…

## Creating Marginal Effect Plots for Linear Regression Models in R

August 27, 2013
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I discuss how to use R to create marginal effect plots as a part of evaluating interactive theories as suggested by Brambor, Clark, and Golder (2006).

## googleVis 0.4.4 released with new formatting options for tables

August 27, 2013
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Over the weekend googleVis 0.4.4 found its way to CRAN. The function gvisTable gained a new argument formats that allow users to define the formats numbers displayed in tables. Thanks to J. Buros, who contributed the code.ExampleLoadingSession InfoR ve...

## De la disparition du français comme langue de référence (?)

August 27, 2013
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En mettant à jour ma chronique Somewhere Else, depuis quelques temps, j’avais l’impression de citer de moins en moins d’articles en français dans mes tweets. Plus j’y pensais, plus je me rendais compte que je lisais de moins en moins la presse française (ou disons en français). Quand je lis la presse en français, j’ai l’impression de retrouver, avec quelques jours de retard (quelques heures de retards pour les informations plus…

## MCMSki IV, Jan. 6-8, 2014, Chamonix (news #7)

August 26, 2013
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More exciting (and important!) news about MCMSki IV: First, some if not all of the 9 invited and the 16 contributed sessions are about now documented by abstracts. The program is completely set! If you plan to present a poster, remember to send me by email (a) surname, name (institution): title as the subject, (b) […]

## Latent Variable Mixture Modeling: When Heterogeneity Requires Both Categories and Dimensions

August 26, 2013
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Dichotomies come easily to us, especially when they are caricatures as shown in this cartoon.  These personality types do seem real, and without much difficulty, we can anticipate how they might react in different situations.  For example, if...

## Statistics meme: Sad p-value bear

August 26, 2013
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I was just at a conference where the idea for a sad p-value bear meme came up (in the spirit of Biostatistics Ryan Gosling). This should not be considered an endorsement of p-values or p-value hacking.

## Types of Data on R

August 26, 2013
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There are different types of data on R. I use type here as a technical term, rather than merely a synonym of “variety”.  There are three main types of data: Numeric: ordinary numbers Character: not treated as a number, but as a word. You cannot add two characters, even if they appear to be numerical. Characters […]

## An ignored issue in Big Data analysis

August 26, 2013
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The Sunday Review section of New York Times on August 11 contains two pieces I'd like to discuss. The first piece, by Ian Urbina, an investigative reporter, is called "I Flirt and Tweet. Follow Me at #Socialbot". He tells a fascinating story about how programmers create "bots" that impersonate people surfing the Web. For instance, researchers at a Brazilian university created a bot named "Carina Santos" who was rated by…

## Kosara wants to rescue infographics

August 26, 2013
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Robert Kosara takes us back to the 1940s, and an incredible "infographics" project by the Lawrence Livermoore Laboratory. (link) Here is one of the designs: Kosara laments: When did information graphics turn into ‘infographics,’ and when did we lose the...

## Determine the version of SAS software at run time

August 26, 2013
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Recently I wrote about how to determine the age of your SAS release. Experienced SAS programmers know that you can programatically determine information about your SAS release by using certain automatic macro variables that SAS provides: SYSVER: contains the major and minor version of the SAS release SYSVLONG: contains the [...]

## Changeability of Value at Risk estimators

August 26, 2013
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How does Value at Risk change through time for the same portfolio? Previously There has been a number of posts on Value at Risk, including a basic introduction to Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. The components garch model was also described. Issue The historical method for Value at Risk is by far the most commonly … Continue reading →

## Statistics is not beautiful (sniff)

August 25, 2013
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Statistics is not really elegant or even fun in the way that a mathematics puzzle can be. But statistics is necessary, and enormously rewarding. I like to think that we use statistical methods and principles to extract truth from data. … Continue reading →

## Exponential Smoothing Again: Structural Change

August 25, 2013
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Here's another fascinating example of the ongoing and surprisingly modern magic of exponential smoothing (ES).In my last post I asked you to read the latest from Neil Shephard, on stochastic volatility and exponential smoothing. Now read the lates...

## A new Bem theory

August 25, 2013
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The other day I was talking with someone who knows Daryl Bem a bit, and he was sharing his thoughts on that notorious ESP paper that was published in a leading journal in the field but then was mocked, shot down, and was repeatedly replicated with no success. My friend said that overall the Bem […]The post A new Bem theory appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

## More REML exercise

August 25, 2013
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Last week I tried exercise 1 of the SAS(R) proc mixed with R libraries lme4 and MCMCglm. So this week I aimed for exercise 2 but ended up redoing exercise 1 with nlme.Exercise 2 results gave me problems with library lme4 and latter parts of the ex...

## From SVG to probability distributions [with R package]

August 25, 2013
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$From SVG to probability distributions [with R package]$

Hey, To illustrate generally complex probability density functions on continuous spaces, researchers always use the same examples, for instance mixtures of Gaussian distributions or a banana shaped distribution defined on with density function: If we draw a sample from this distribution using MCMC we obtain a [scatter]plot like this one: Clearly it doesn’t really look […]

## Did Faulty Software Shut Down the NASDAQ?

August 24, 2013
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This past Thursday, the NASDAQ stock exchange shut down for just over 3 hours due to some technical problems. It's still not clear what the problem was because NASDAQ officials are being tight-lipped. NASDAQ has had a bad run of … Continue reading →