## When’s that next gamma-ray blast gonna come, already?

June 13, 2013
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Phil Plait writes: Earth May Have Been Hit by a Cosmic Blast 1200 Years Ago . . . this is nothing to panic about. If it happened at all, it was a long time ago, and unlikely to happen again for hundreds of thousands of years. This left me confused. If it really did happen [...]The post When’s that next gamma-ray blast gonna come, already? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

June 13, 2013
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## Le Monde puzzle [#824]

June 13, 2013
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A rather dull puzzle this week: Show that, for any integer y, (√3-1)2y+(√3+1)2y is an integer multiple of a power of two. I just have to apply Newton’s binomial theorem to obtain the result. What’s the point?! Filed under: Books, Kids...

## Review: Chabris, Simons, The Invisible Gorilla

June 13, 2013
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Inattentional and change blindness are two fascinating phenomena that more people should be aware of. The Invisible Gorilla describes them as well as some other interesting and surprising psychological research. This book has been out for over three years, and I’ve been meaning to write a review forever. What brought it back to my attention is a recent news story on the safety implications of voice-controlled systems in cars. Just…

## Twitter Twitter on the Web, Who is the Most Popular of All? Interactively Determining Popularity of Two Entitites on Twitter

June 12, 2013
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UPDATE: THE BLOG/SITE HAS MOVED TO GITHUB. THE NEW LINK FOR THE BLOG/SITE IS patilv.github.io and THE LINK TO THIS POST IS:http://bit.ly/1jKxfDu .  PLEASE UPDATE ANY BOOKMARKS YOU MAY HAVE.Code updated based on feedback (s...

## The Reorderable Data Matrix and the Promise of Pattern Discovery

June 12, 2013
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We typically start with the data matrix, a rectangular array of rows and columns.  If we type its name on the R command line, it will show itself.  But the data matrix is hard to read, even when there are not many rows or columns.  The h...

## Toy Exoplanet Change Point Light Curve Transit Detection

I’ve been attending an exoplanet data conference this week, a gathering between astrophysicists and statisticians. One way to look for exoplanets is by the “Transit” method. Basically a dip in the flux from a star is observed as an orbiting planet passes across the line of sight between the observer and the star. There was […]The post Toy Exoplanet Change Point Light Curve Transit Detection appeared first on Lindons Log.

## Peter Thiel is writing another book!

June 12, 2013
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Tyler Cowen links: “I’m writing this book because we need to think about the future for more than just 140 characters or 15 minutes at a time if we want to make real long-term progress,” Mr. Thiel said in a statement. “’Zero to One’ is about learning from Silicon Valley how to solve hard problems [...]The post Peter Thiel is writing another book! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

## Personalized medicine is primarily a population-health intervention

June 12, 2013
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There has been a lot of discussion of personalized medicine, individualized health, and precision medicine in the news and in the medical research community. Despite this recent attention, it is clear that healthcare has always been personalized to some extent. For … Continue reading →

## An Introduction to Importance Sampling

$An Introduction to Importance Sampling$

Importance Sampling is a Monte Carlo integration technique for getting (very accurate) approximations to integrals. Consider the integral and suppose we wish to approximate this without doing any calculus. Statistically speaking we want to compute the normalizing constant for a standard normal, which we know to be We can rewrite the above integral as because […]The post An Introduction to Importance Sampling appeared first on Lindons Log.

## How to best graph the Beveridge curve, relating the vacancy rate in jobs to the unemployment rate?

June 12, 2013
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Jonathan Robinson writes: I’m a survey researcher who mostly does political work, but I also have a strong interest in economics. I have a question about this graph you commonly see in the economics literature. It is of a concept called the Beveridge Curve [recently in the newspaper here]. It is one of the more [...]The post How to best graph the Beveridge curve, relating the vacancy rate in jobs…

## De-noising data

June 12, 2013
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One of the most important steps in analyzing data is to remove noise. First, we have to identify where the noise is, then we find ways to reduce the noise, which has the effect of surfacing the signal. The labor...

## Happy Birthday Normal Deviate

June 12, 2013
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Today is the one year anniversary of this blog. First of all, thanks to all the readers. And special thanks to commenters and guest posters. This seems like a good time to assess whether I have achieved my goals for the blog and to get suggestions on how I might proceed in year two. GOALS. … … Continue reading →

## How to interpret a residual-fit spread plot

June 12, 2013
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In a previous blog post, I described how to use a spread plot to compare the distributions of several variables. Each spread plot is a graph of centered data values plotted against the estimated cumulative probability. Thus, spread plots are similar to a (rotated) plot of the empirical cumulative distribution [...]

## Mayo: comment on the repressed memory research

June 12, 2013
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Here are some reflections on the repressed memory articles from Richard Gill’s post, focusing on Geraerts, et.al.,(2008). 1. Richard Gill reported that “Everyone does it this way, in fact, if you don’t, you’d never get anything published: …People are not deliberately cheating: they honestly believe in their theories and believe the data is supporting them and […]

## Visualizing densities of spatial processes

June 11, 2013
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We recently uploaded on http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00725090 a revised version of our work, with Ewen Gallic (a.k.a. @3wen) on Visualizing spatial processes using Ripley’s correction: an application to bodily-injury car accident location In this paper, we investigate (and extend) Ripley’s circumference method to correct bias of density estimation of edges (or frontiers) of regions. The idea of the method was theoretical and di#cult to implement. We provide a simple technique – based…

## Why not have a "future of the field" session at a conference with only young speakers?

June 11, 2013
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I'm in the process of trying to get together a couple of sessions to submit to ENAR 2014. I'm pretty psyched about the topics and am looking forward to hosting the conference in Baltimore. It is pretty awesome to have … Continue reading →

## Folic acid and autism

June 11, 2013
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Aurelian Muntean writes: I have read an article on NPR and the journal article that spun this news. What draw my attention was the discussion in terms of causation implied by one of the authors of the article interviewed in the NPR news, and also by the conclusions of the article itself claiming large effects. [...]The post Folic acid and autism appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

## Willing the data to fit your model

June 11, 2013
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It strikes me that in medicine, we are stuck with simplistic models - models that use one variable only, and are linear in the response. In short, we are told X results in Y, and the more X, the more Y. Real life often does not cooperate, but many people in medical research hold on to their models for dear life. Exhibit 1 is the disappearing of unhelpful data used…

## Computing skewness and kurtosis in one pass

June 11, 2013
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If you compute the standard deviation of a data set by directly implementing the definition, you’ll need to pass through the data twice: once to find the mean, then a second time to accumulate the squared differences from the mean. But there is an equivalent algorithm that requires only one pass and that is more […]

## R package development

June 11, 2013
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Building R packages is not particular hard, but it can be a bit of a daunting endeavour at the beginning, particularly if you are more of a statistician than a computer scientist or programmer. Some concepts may appear foreign or like red tape, yet man...

## R: Measures of Skewness and Kurtosis

June 11, 2013
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Skewness and kurtosis in R are available in the moments package (to install an R package, click here), and these are:Skewness - skewnessKurtosis - kurtosisExample 1. Mirra is interested in the elapse time (in minutes) she spends on riding a tricycle fr...

## Running time

June 10, 2013
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Marta and I are doing some re-analysis of our Eurovision contest (some context here and here). We have slightly modified our original model (mostly, I have navigated the mess in Marta's notation \$-\$ it's OK: I'm not at risk of her mighty wrath, as I've...