Total survey error

February 3, 2015
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Erez Shalom writes: It’s election time in Israel and every week several surveys come out trying to predict the ‘mandates’ that each party will get (out of a total of 120). These surveys are historically flakey, and no one takes the ‘sampling error’ they come with seriously, but no one has a good idea of […] The post Total survey error appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Shiny for Interactive Application Development using R

February 2, 2015
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This slidify-based deck introduces the shiny package from R-Studio and walks one through the development of an interactive application that presents users with options to subset the iris dataset, generate a summary of the resulting dataset, a...

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Deflate-gate, Part 2: not average != extreme, and Sunday talk shows

February 2, 2015
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Last week, I pointed out the futility of using data as proof or disproof in Deflate-gate. Emphatically, a case of "N=All" does not make things better. I later edited the post for HBR (link). In this post, I want to address a couple of more subtle technical issues related to the Sharp analysis, which can be summarized as follows: 1. New England is an outlier in the plays per fumbles…

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Deciding the ultimate seminar speaker: The rules

February 2, 2015
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Deciding the ultimate seminar speaker:  The rules

Here’s the bracket: Here’s how I set things up last month: Who would be the ultimate seminar speaker? I’m not asking for the most popular speaker, or the most relevant, or the best speaker, or the deepest, or even the coolest, but rather some combination of the above. My list includes eight current or historical […] The post Deciding the ultimate seminar speaker: The rules appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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On deck this week

February 2, 2015
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As discussed last month, for the next two months we’ll be interspersing regular blog posts with seminar-speaker-bracket showdowns. Mon: Deciding the ultimate seminar speaker: The rules Tues: Plato (1) vs. Henny Youngman Wed: The plagiarist next door Mark Twain (4) vs. L. Ron Hubbard Thurs: Why I keep talking about “generalizing from sample to population” […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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On deck this month

February 2, 2015
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As discussed last month, for the next two months we’ll be interspersing regular blog posts with seminar-speaker-bracket showdowns. So we’ll be having a double dose of posts. Don’t forget to comment on the seminar showdowns! And here goes: Deciding the ultimate seminar speaker: The rules Plato (1) vs. Henny Youngman The plagiarist next door Mark […] The post On deck this month appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Bi-Weekly Complex Systems Seminar

February 2, 2015
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For those near the University of Pennsylvania, the Complex Systems Seminar Series is sponsored by the Bassett Lab and is held on the 1st and 3rd Friday of each month at noon in 337 Towne Hall.The seminar series seeks to bring speakers from a variety of...

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Detect empty parameters that are passed to a SAS/IML module

February 2, 2015
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Detect empty parameters that are passed to a SAS/IML module

A SAS/IML programmer asked a question on a discussion forum, which I paraphrase below: I've written a SAS/IML function that takes several arguments. Some of the arguments have default values. When the module is called, I want to compute some quantity, but I only want to compute it for the […]

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IASC Data Analysis Competition 2015

February 2, 2015
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IASC Data Analysis Competition 2015

The International Association for Statistical Computing (IASC) is holding a Data Analysis Competition. Winners will be invited to present their work at the Joint Meeting of IASC-ABE Satellite Conference for the 60th ISI WSC 2015 to be held at Atlântico Búzios Convention & Resort in Búzios, RJ, Brazil (August 2–4, 2015). They will also be […]

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Don’t teach significance testing – Guest post

February 2, 2015
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Don’t teach significance testing – Guest post

The following is a guest post by Tony Hak of Rotterdam School of Management. I know Tony would love some discussion about it in the comments. I remain undecided either way, so would like to hear arguments. GOOD REASONS FOR NOT TEACHING … Continue reading →

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Don’t teach significance testing – Guest post

February 2, 2015
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Don’t teach significance testing – Guest post

The following is a guest post by Tony Hak of Rotterdam School of Management. I know Tony would love some discussion about it in the comments. I remain undecided either way, so would like to hear arguments. GOOD REASONS FOR NOT TEACHING … Continue reading →

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This has nothing to do with the Super Bowl

February 2, 2015
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Joshua Vogelstein writes: The Open Connectome Project at Johns Hopkins University invites outstanding candidates to apply for a postdoctoral or assistant research scientist position in the area of statistical machine learning for big brain imaging data. Our workflow is tightly vertically integrated, ranging from raw data to theory to answering neuroscience questions and back again. […] The post This has nothing to do with the Super Bowl appeared first on…

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2015.2: Did the New England Patriots experience a decrease in fumbles starting in 2007?

February 1, 2015
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2015.2: Did the New England Patriots experience a decrease in fumbles starting in 2007?

Here's a timely guest entry from Jeffrey Witmer (Oberlin College). As the “Deflate Gate” saga was unfolding, Warren Sharp analyzed “touches per fumble” for NFL teams before and after 2006, when a rule was changed so that teams playing on the r...

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GAS workshop

February 1, 2015
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GAS workshop

The General Application Section (GAS) of the Royal Statistical Society has asked us to reenact the session Richard Nixon, Chris Jackson and I did at Bayes Pharma last year on Bayesian methods in health economic evaluation. In fact, ...

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Some 3D Graphics (rgl) for Classification with Splines and Logistic Regression (from The Elements of Statistical Learning)

February 1, 2015
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Some 3D Graphics (rgl) for Classification with Splines and Logistic Regression (from The Elements of Statistical Learning)

This semester I'm teaching from Hastie, Tibshirani, and Friedman's book, The Elements of Statistical Learning, 2nd Edition. The authors provide a Mixture Simulation data set that has two continuous predictors and a binary outcome. This data is used to demonstrate classification procedures by plotting classification boundaries in the two predictors. For example, the figure below … Continue reading Some 3D Graphics (rgl) for Classification with Splines and Logistic Regression (from…

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Oh, it’s so frustrating when you’re trying to help someone out, and then you realize you’re dealing with a snake.

February 1, 2015
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This happens sometimes. Someone comes to you with a request, maybe it’s a student or a potential student or just someone who has a question relating to your field of expertise. You’re in a good mood so you decide to help out, or maybe you feel it’s your duty to be helpful, or, who knows, […] The post Oh, it’s so frustrating when you’re trying to help someone out, and…

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Unemployment

February 1, 2015
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Unemployment

Beginning 2013 I made a post plotting unemployment in Europe. Last year I did the same. Now that the unemployment numbers of December are on Eurostat, I am making them again. The plots shown are unemployment and its first derivative, both smoothed.You ...

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2015 Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (4th draft)

February 1, 2015
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2015 Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (4th draft)

Saturday Night Brainstorming: The TFSI on NHST–part reblog from here and here, with a substantial 2015 update! Each year leaders of the movement to “reform” statistical methodology in psychology, social science, and other areas of applied statistics get together around this time for a brainstorming session. They review the latest from the Task Force on Statistical […]

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Documenting a class-participation activity

January 31, 2015
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Documenting a class-participation activity

Tian Zheng implemented my candies demo using Legos: Also lots of details on the results. The point here is not exactly what happened (but, yes, the demo did work) but rather the idea that you can use photos and graphs to document what worked in class. We should be able to do this sort of […] The post Documenting a class-participation activity appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Some Suggested Reading

January 31, 2015
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Some Suggested Reading

Bahoc, F., H. Leeb, and B. M. Potscher, 2014. Valid confidence intervals for post-model-selection predictors. Working Paper, Department of Statistics, University of Vienna.Baumeister, C. and J. D. Hamilton, 2014. Sign restrictions, structural vector au...

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Economics/sociology phrase book

January 31, 2015
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Mark Palko points me to this amusing document from Jeffrey Smith and Kermit Daniel, translating sociology jargon into economics and vice-versa. Lots of good jokes there. Along these lines, I’ve always been bothered by economists’ phrase “willingness to pay” which, in practice, often means “ability to pay.” And, of course, “earnings” which means “how much […] The post Economics/sociology phrase book appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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On verbal categories for the interpretation of Bayes factors

January 30, 2015
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As Bayesian analysis is becoming more popular, adopters of Bayesian statistics have had to consider new issues that they did not before. What is makes “good” prior? How do I interpret a posterior? What Bayes factor is “big enough”? Although the theoretical arguments for the use of Bayesian statistics are very strong, new and unfamiliar ideas can cause uncertainty in new adopters. Compared to the cozy certainty of \(p<.05\), Bayesian…

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More than Word

January 30, 2015
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More than Word

I know this will sound childish and possibly snobbish. But for some reason (mostly because of several collaborative papers I'm working on at the moment with colleagues that do not use LaTeX), I have spent a good 90% of my working time on MS Word, in th...

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