On Forecast Intervals "too Wide to be Useful"

October 11, 2015
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I keep hearing people say things like this or that forecast interval is "too wide to be useful." In general, equating "wide" intervals with "useless" intervals is nonsense. A good (useful) forecast interval is one that's correctly conditionally ca...

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P-value madness: A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)

October 11, 2015
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P-value madness: A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)

Given the excited whispers about the upcoming meeting of the American Statistical Association Committee on P-Values and Statistical Significance, it’s an apt time to reblog my post on the “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy that began the latest brouhaha! A large number of people have sent me articles on the “test ban” of statistical hypotheses tests and […]

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Gay gene tabloid hype update

October 11, 2015
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Gay gene tabloid hype update

Tuck Ngun, one of the researchers involved in the “Twin study reveals five DNA markers that are associated with sexual orientation” project, posted a disagreement with some criticisms relayed by science reporter Ed Yong. I’d thought Yong’s points were pretty good and I was interested in seeing what Ngun had to say. Ngun wrote: I […] The post Gay gene tabloid hype update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Latest gay gene tabloid hype

October 10, 2015
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Latest gay gene tabloid hype

The tabloid in question is the journal Nature, which along with Science and PPNAS (the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, publisher of gems such as the himmicanes and hurricanes study) has in recent years become notorious for publishing flashy but unsubstantiated scientific claims. As Lord Acton never said, publicity corrupts, and absolute publicity […] The post Latest gay gene tabloid hype appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Doomed to fail: A pre-registration site for parapsychology

October 10, 2015
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Doomed to fail:  A pre-registration site for parapsychology

A correspondent writes: There is now a pre-registration site for parapsychology: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4332280/ https://koestlerunit.wordpress.com/study-registry/registered-studies/ There are several experiments that completely flopped, some that haven’t been published after a few years (like Daryl Bem and collaborator’s attempted large-n replication of Bem), and some that report positive pre-registered results (but probably usually have repeatable methodological problems). Sorry but […] The post Doomed to fail: A pre-registration site for parapsychology appeared first on Statistical…

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Delta Method Confidence Bands for Gaussian Mixture Density (Can Behave Badly)

October 9, 2015
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Delta Method Confidence Bands for Gaussian Mixture Density (Can Behave Badly)

This post follows from a previous post (2798), in which the delta method was used to create an approximate pointwise 95% confidence band for a Gaussian density estimate. Note that the quality of this estimate was not assessed (e.g., whether the band has the correct pointwise coverage). Here we extend that approach to the Gaussian … Continue reading Delta Method Confidence Bands for Gaussian Mixture Density (Can Behave Badly) →

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Flip a fair coin 4x. Probability of H following H is 40%???

October 9, 2015
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Flip a fair coin 4x. Probability of H following H is 40%???

A recent working paper has come out arguing for the existence of Hot Hands (in basketball), a concept psychologists had dismissed decades ago. Hot hands is where a player is thought to have a higher likelihood of scoring the next basket if the last thr...

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Political advertising update

October 9, 2015
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Political advertising update

Last month I posted an article on the sister blog: How much does advertising matter in presidential elections?, discussing a paper by Brett Gordon and Wesley Hartmann. Gordon sent in an update: Both Wes and I greatly appreciate your comments and for highlighting our work. All the points you raise are quite fair. As you […] The post Political advertising update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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The Graphical Network Associated with Customer Churn

October 8, 2015
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The Graphical Network Associated with Customer Churn

The node representing "Will Not Stay" draws our focus toward the left side of the following undirected graph. Customers of a health care insurance provider were asked about their intentions to renew at the next sign-up period. We focus on those indicat...

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Most successful blog post ever

October 8, 2015
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Last month, I posted this on the sister blog at the Washington Post: Under the subject line, “My best friend from 1st grade wrote this article,” Joshua Vogelstein pointed me to pointed me to an article in the journal Marketing Science . . . written by Brett Gordon and Wesley Hartmann . . . Then […] The post Most successful blog post ever appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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A data visualization that is invariant to the data

October 8, 2015
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A data visualization that is invariant to the data

This map appeared in Princeton Alumni Weekly: Here is another map I created: If you think they look basically the same, you got the point. Now look at the data on the maps. The original map displays the proportion of...

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“Gallup gives up the horse race: As pollsters confront unprecedented obstacles, the biggest name in the business backs away”

October 8, 2015
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A couple people pointed me to this news item. I don’t have anything particular to say here, but it seemed worth noting. End of an era and all that. P.S. A colleague commented: “They’re not going to poll one of those things where we can tell if you get it wrong. Not good.” I replied: […] The post “Gallup gives up the horse race: As pollsters confront unprecedented obstacles, the…

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In defense of statistical recipes, but with enriched ingredients (scientist sees squirrel)

October 8, 2015
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In defense of statistical recipes, but with enriched ingredients (scientist sees squirrel)

Evolutionary ecologist, Stephen Heard (Scientist Sees Squirrel) linked to my blog yesterday. Heard’s post asks: “Why do we make statistics so hard for our students?” I recently blogged Barnard who declared “We need more complexity” in statistical education. I agree with both: after all, Barnard also called for stressing the overarching reasoning for given methods, and that’s in sync with […]

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Some key Win-Vector serial data science articles

October 7, 2015
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Some key Win-Vector serial data science articles

As readers have surely noticed the Win-Vector LLC blog isn’t a stream of short notes, but instead a collection of long technical articles. It is the only way we can properly treat topics of consequence. What not everybody may have noticed is a number of these articles are serialized into series for deeper comprehension. The … Continue reading Some key Win-Vector serial data science articles

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Treasure Trove of R Scripts for Auto Classification, Chart Generation, Solr, Mongo, MySQL and Ton More

October 7, 2015
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In this repository hosted at github, the datadolph.in team is sharing all of the R codebase that it developed to analyze large quantities of data.datadolph.in team has benefited tremendously from fellow R bloggers and other open source communities and ...

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The butterfly curve

October 7, 2015
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The butterfly curve

I came across the butterfly curve, which was discovered by Temple Fay. The butterfly curve is produced by a parametric equation where: x = sin(t) * (e^cos(t)-2cos(λt)-sin(t/12)^5) and y = cos(t) * (e^cos(t)-2cos(λt)-sin(t/12)^5). Where t stands for time and λ for a user input variable. I used ggplot to create a plot of the butterfly … Read More →

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For a fact-based Worldview

October 7, 2015
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For a fact-based Worldview

Hans Rosling, co-founder and promoter of the Gapminder Foundation and of gapminder.org fights with statistics against myths (‘Our goal is to replace devastating myths with a fact-based worldview.’) and tries to counterbalance media focussing on war, conflicts and chaos. Here one more example (and this in a media interview…): ‘You can’t use media if you … Continue reading For a fact-based Worldview

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For a fact-based Worldview

October 7, 2015
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For a fact-based Worldview

Hans Rosling, co-founder and promoter of the Gapminder Foundation and of gapminder.org fights with statistics against myths (‘Our goal is to replace devastating myths with a fact-based worldview.’) and tries to counterbalance media focussing on war, conflicts and chaos. Here one more example (and this in a media interview…): ‘You can’t use media if you … Continue reading For a fact-based Worldview

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Mindset interventions are a scalable treatment for academic underachievement — or not?

October 7, 2015
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Someone points me to this post by Scott Alexander, criticizing the work of psychology researcher Carol Dweck. Alexander looks carefully at an article, “Mindset Interventions Are A Scalable Treatment For Academic Underachievement,” by David Paunesku, Gregory Walton, Carissa Romero, Eric Smith, David Yeager, and Carol Dweck, and he finds the following: Among ordinary students, the […] The post Mindset interventions are a scalable treatment for academic underachievement — or not?…

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Tabulate counts when there are unobserved categories

October 7, 2015
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Tabulate counts when there are unobserved categories

Suppose that you are tabulating the eye colors of students in a small class (following Friendly, 1992). Depending upon the ethnic groups of these students, you might not observe any green-eyed students. How do you put a 0 into the table that summarizes the number of students who have each […] The post Tabulate counts when there are unobserved categories appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Stanford seminar

October 7, 2015
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Stanford seminar

I gave a seminar at Stanford today. Slides are below. It was definitely the most intimidating audience I’ve faced, with Jerome Friedman, Trevor Hastie, Brad Efron, Persi Diaconis, Susan Holmes, David Donoho and John Chambers all present (and probably other famous names I’ve missed). I’ll be giving essentially the same talk at UC Davis on […]

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The butterfly curve

October 7, 2015
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The butterfly curve

Have you ever thought drawing your own butterfly?

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The butterfly curve

October 7, 2015
By
The butterfly curve

I came across the butterfly curve, which was discovered by Temple Fay. The butterfly curve is produced by a parametric equation where: x = sin(t) * (e^cos(t)-2cos(λt)-sin(t/12)^5) and y = cos(t) * (e^cos(t)-2cos(λt)-sin(t/12)^5) . Where t stands for ...

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