## Julia style string literal interpolation in R

October 8, 2014
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I feel like a sculptor who has been using the same metal tools for the last four years and happened to have looked at my comrades and found them sporting new, sleek electric tools. Suddenly all of the hard work put into maintaining and adapting my meta...

## The name of a parameter in the parent environment

October 8, 2014
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SAS/IML 13.1 includes a handy function for programmers who write a lot of modules. The PARENTNAME function obtains the name of the symbol that was passed in as a parameter to a user-defined module. How is this useful? Well, suppose that you want to create a SAS/IML module that prints […]

## Connect with local employers

October 7, 2014
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I keep telling students that there are lots of jobs in data science (including statistics), and they often tell me they can’t find them advertised. As usual, you do have to do some networking, and one of the best ways of doing it is via a Data Science Meetup. Many cities now have them including […]

## Rational != Self-interested

October 7, 2014
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I’ve said it before (along with Aaron Edlin and Noah Kaplan) and I’ll say it again. Rationality and self-interest are two dimensions of behavior. An action can be: 1. Rational and self-interested 2. Irrational and self-interested 3. Rational and altruistic 4. Irrational and altruistic. It’s easy enough to come up with examples of all of […]

## Experts clinging on to their predictions

October 7, 2014
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Andrew Gelman touches on one of my favorite topics: prediction accuracy, and experts who cling to their predictions. Here's Andrew at the Monkey Cage blog. His starting point is a piece by sociologist Jay Livingston on how various well-known economists made vague predictions (e.g. "I see inflation around the corner") and kept clinging to them (eventually, there will be inflation). Several theories are given to explain this behavior. One is…

## randomness in coin tosses and last digits of prime numbers

October 7, 2014
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A rather intriguing note that was arXived last week: it is essentially one page long and it compares the power law of the frequency range for the Bernoulli experiment with the power law of the frequency range for the distribution of the last digits of the first 10,000 prime numbers to conclude that the power […]

## Data decorations, ornaments, chartjunk, and all that

October 7, 2014
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Alberto Cairo left a comment about "data decorations". This is a name he's using to describe something like the windshield-wiper chart I discussed the other day. It seems like the visual elements were purely ornamental and adds nothing to the...

## Visualising the seasonality of Atlantic windstorms

October 7, 2014
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Last week Arthur Charpentier sketched out a Markov spatial process to generate hurricane trajectories. Here, I would like to take another look at the data Arthur used, but focus on its time component. According to the Insurance Information Institute, a...

October 6, 2014
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The International Institute of Forecasters sponsors workshops every year, each of which focuses on a specific theme. The purpose of these workshops is to facilitate small, informal meetings where experts in a particular field of forecasting can discuss forecasting problems, research, and solutions. Over the years, our workshops have covered topics from Predicting Rare Events, […]

## The winds of Winter [Bayesian prediction]

October 6, 2014
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A surprising entry on arXiv this morning: Richard Vale (from Christchurch, NZ) has posted a paper about the characters appearing in the yet hypothetical next volume of George R.R. Martin’s Song of ice and fire series, The winds of Winter [not even put for pre-sale on amazon!]. Using the previous five books in the series […]

## “We have used Stan to study dead dolphins”

October 6, 2014
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In response to our call for references to successful research using Stan, Matthieu Authier points us to this: @article{ year={2014}, journal={Biodiversity and Conservation}, volume={23}, number={10}, doi={10.1007/s10531-014-0741-3}, title={How much are stranding records affected by variation in reporting rates? A case study of small delphinids in the Bay of Biscay}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10531-014-0741-3}, keywords={Monitoring; Marine mammal; Strandings}, author={Authier, Matthieu […]

## Julia: The "Distributions" Package

October 6, 2014
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This is a follow up to my post from a few days ago exploring random number generation in Julia's base system.  In this post I will explore the 'distributions' package.You can find the excellent documentation on the "Distributions" package at: http...

## “Regular Customer: It was so much easier when I was a bum. I didn’t have to wake up at 4am to go to work, didn’t have all these bills and girlfriends.”

October 6, 2014
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Love the Liberry is still going strong.

## On deck this week

October 6, 2014
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Mon: “Regular Customer: It was so much easier when I was a bum. I didn’t have to wake up at 4am to go to work, didn’t have all these bills and girlfriends.” Tues: Rational != Self-interested Wed: When there’s a lot of variation, it can be a mistake to make statements about “typical” attitudes Thurs: […]

## A bit more fragmented

October 6, 2014
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This year's election rendered an even more fragmented federal legislative. The way political scientists measure this is by applying an algorithm to calculate the Effective Number of Parties, which is a measure that helps to go beyond the simple number of parties represented in the Parliament. A widely accepted algorithm was proposed by M. Laakso … Read More →

## An economic model for peer review

October 6, 2014
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I saw this tweet the other day: Has anyone applied game theory to the issue of anonymous peer review in academia? — Mick Watson (@BioMickWatson) October 2, 2014 It reminded me that a few years ago I had a paper that went through the peer review wringer. It drove me completely bananas. One thing that drove

## On deck this month

October 6, 2014
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Lots of good stuff in the queue: “Regular Customer: It was so much easier when I was a bum. I didn’t have to wake up at 4am to go to work, didn’t have all these bills and girlfriends.” Rational != Self-interested When there’s a lot of variation, it can be a mistake to make statements […]

## Intuition for Prediction Under Bregman Loss

October 6, 2014
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Elements of the Bregman family of loss functions, denoted $$B(y, \hat{y})$$, take the form:$$B(y, \hat{y}) = \phi(y) - \phi(\hat{y}) - \phi'(\hat{y}) (y-\hat{y})$$ where $$\phi: \mathcal{Y} \rightarrow R$$ is any strictly convex function, and \(\mathca...

## Convert hexadecimal colors to RGB

October 6, 2014
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In response to my recent post about how to use the PALETTE function in SAS/IML to generate color ramps, a reader wrote the following: The PALETTE function returns an array of hexadecimal values such as CXF03B20. For those of us who think about colors as RGB values, is there an […]

## TBATS with regressors

October 6, 2014
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I’ve received a few emails about including regression variables (i.e., covariates) in TBATS models. As TBATS models are related to ETS models, tbats() is unlikely to ever include covariates as explained here. It won’t actually complain if you include an xreg argument, but it will ignore it. When I want to include covariates in a […]

## A Bit More Fragmented

October 6, 2014
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The 2014 election gave rise to an even more fragmented lower house in Brazil, suggesting the political system is less stable than expected. The 2014 legislative election The election this year gave rise to an even more fragmented lower house. Th...

## A bit more fragmented

October 6, 2014
By

The election gave rise to an even more fragmented lower chamber in Brazil. The 2014 legislative election The election this year gave rise to an even more fragmented lower house. The way political scientists measure how fragmented a political sy...

## A bit more fragmented

October 6, 2014
By

The election gave rise to an even more fragmented lower chamber in Brazil. The 2014 legislative election This year, the election gave rise to an even more fragmented House. The way political scientists measure how fragmented is political system ...