## rstanarm and more!

January 14, 2016
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Ben Goodrich writes: The rstanarm R package, which has been mentioned several times on stan-users, is now available in binary form on CRAN mirrors (unless you are using an old version of R and / or an old version of OSX). It is an R package that comes with a few precompiled Stan models — […] The post rstanarm and more! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

## "Secret Data" and Differential Privacy

January 14, 2016
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See Cochrane's original post and followup.  The followup mentions the idea of differential privacy as a "technology" that may provide a potential solution when there are issues of data confidentiality.   Actually differential privacy is ...

## Collectionner les Figurines Lego avec ses Ami(e)s

January 14, 2016
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Dans mon précédant billet, je regardais combien de figurines Lego je devais acheter pour avoir toute la série, avec ma fille. Pour la série de 16, il fallait, en moyenne, acheter 54 sachets, à 3 euros pièces. Dans les commentaires, @Guillaume et @Gaelle me faisaient noter que les échanges, ça pouvait aider. Bon, tout d’abord j’aime pas qu’on donne des conseils à mes filles pour avoir raison contre moi !…

## precision in MCMC

January 13, 2016
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While browsing Images des Mathématiques, I came across this article [in French] that studies the impact of round-off errors on number representations in a dynamical system and checked how much this was the case for MCMC algorithms like the slice sampler (recycling some R code from Monte Carlo Statistical Methods). By simply adding a few […]

## Pro-PACE, anti-PACE

January 13, 2016
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Pro Simon Wessely, a psychiatrist who has done research on chronic fatigue syndrome, pointed me to an overview of the PACE trial written by its organizers, Peter White, Trudie Chalder, and Michael Sharpe, and also to this post of his from November, coming to the defense of the much-maligned PACE study: Nothing as complex as […] The post Pro-PACE, anti-PACE appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Compute the centroid of a polygon in SAS

January 13, 2016
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Recently I blogged about how to compute a weighted mean and showed that you can use a weighted mean to compute the center of mass for a system of N point masses in the plane. That led me to think about a related problem: computing the center of mass (called […] The post Compute the centroid of a polygon in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

## Cancer statistics: WTF?

January 13, 2016
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This post is by Phil. I know someone who was recently diagnosed with lung cancer and is trying to decide whether to get chemo or just let it run its course. What does she have to go on? A bunch of statistics that are barely useful. For example, its easy to find the average survival […] The post Cancer statistics: WTF? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

## Stan 2.9 is Here!

January 12, 2016
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We’re happy to announce that Stan 2.9.0 is fully available(1) for CmdStan, RStan, and PyStan — it should also work for Stan.jl (Julia), MatlabStan, and StataStan. As usual, you can find everything you need on the Stan Home Page. The main new features are: R/MATLAB-like slicing of matrices. There’s a new chapter in the user’s […] The post Stan 2.9 is Here! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Paxil: What went wrong?

January 12, 2016
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Dale Lehman points us to this news article by Paul Basken on a study by Joanna Le Noury, John Nardo, David Healy, Jon Jureidin, Melissa Raven, Catalin Tufanaru, and Elia Abi-Jaoude that investigated what went wrong in the notorious study by Martin Keller et al. of the GlaxoSmithKline drug Paxil. Lots of ethical issues here, […] The post Paxil: What went wrong? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Not So Standard Deviations Episode 7 – Statistical Royalty

January 12, 2016
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The latest episode of Not So Standard Deviations is out, and boy does Hilary have a story to tell. We also talk about Theranos and the pitfalls of diagnostic testing, Spotify's Discover Weekly playlist generation algorithm (and the need for human product managers), and of course, a little Star Wars. Also, Hilary and I start a

## R in Insurance: Registration and abstract submission opened

January 12, 2016
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Following the successful 3rd R in Insurance conference in Amsterdam last year, we return to London this year.The registration for the 4th conference on R in Insurance on Monday 11 July 2016 at Cass Business School has opened. This one-day conference wi...

## “On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference,” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (PUBLISHED)

January 12, 2016
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The record number of hits on this blog goes to “When Bayesian Inference shatters,” where Houman Owhadi presents a “Plain Jane” explanation of results now published in “On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference”. A follow-up was 1 year ago. Here’s how their paper begins:     Houman Owhadi Professor of Applied and Computational Mathematics and Control and Dynamical Systems, Computing + Mathematical […]

## Genre-based Music Recommendations Using Open Data (and the problem with recommender systems)

January 12, 2016
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After a long 12 months of pouring my soul into it, my book, Data Analysis with R, was finally published. After the requisite 2-4 day breather, I started thinking about how I was going to get back into the swing… Continue reading →

## MCMskv #5 [future with a view]

January 11, 2016
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As I am flying back to Paris (with an afternoon committee meeting in München in-between), I am reminiscing on the superlative scientific quality of this MCMski meeting, on the novel directions in computational Bayesian statistics exhibited therein, and on the potential settings for the next meeting. If any. First, as hopefully obvious from my previous […]

## Street-Fighting Probability and Street-Fighting Stats: 2 One-Week Modules

January 11, 2016
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In a comment to my previous post on the Street-Fighting Math course, Alex wrote: Have you thought about incorporating this material into more conventional classes? I can see this being very good material for a “principles” section of a linear modeling or other applied statistics course. It could give students a sense for how to […] The post Street-Fighting Probability and Street-Fighting Stats: 2 One-Week Modules appeared first on Statistical…

## Brilliant Strategy and Stunning Results

January 11, 2016
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Check out Justin Wolfers' latest:From The New York Times:  “When Teamwork Doesn’t Work for Women”A study finds that female economists get far less credit for collaborative work than their male colleagues do, often harming their career prospe...

## New course: Street-Fighting Math

January 11, 2016
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$New course: Street-Fighting Math$

I want to teach a course next year based on two books by Sanjoy Mahajan: Street-Fighting Mathematics and The Art of Insight in Science and Engineering. You can think of the two books as baby versions of Weisskopf’s 1969 classic, Modern Physics from an Elementary Point of View. Another book in the same vein is […] The post New course: Street-Fighting Math appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Jeff, Roger and Brian Caffo are doing a Reddit AMA at 3pm EST Today

January 11, 2016
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Jeff Leek, Brian Caffo, and I are doing a Reddit AMA TODAY at 3pm EST. We're happy to answer questions about...anything...including our roles as Co-Directors of the Johns Hopkins Data Science Specialization as well as the Executive Data Science Special...

## On deck this week

January 11, 2016
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Mon: New course: Street-Fighting Math Tues: Paxil: What went wrong? Wed: Pro-PACE, anti-PACE Thurs: My namesake doesn’t seem to understand the principles of decision analysis Fri: Risk aversion is a two-way street Sat: A reanalysis of data from a Psychological Science paper Sun: The devil really is in the details; or, You’ll be able to […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Treating absolute and relative data simultaneously

January 11, 2016
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A friend asked me to comment on the following chart: Specifically, he points out the challenge of trying to convey both absolute and relative metrics for a given data series. This chart presents projections of growth in the U.S. mobile...

## mixtures are slices of an orange

January 11, 2016
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After presenting this work in both London and Lenzerheide, Kaniav Kamary, Kate Lee and I arXived and submitted our paper on a new parametrisation of location-scale mixtures. Although it took a long while to finalise the paper, given that we came with the original and central idea about a year ago, I remain quite excited […]

## Twelve posts from 2015 that deserve a second look

January 11, 2016
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I began 2016 by compiling a list of popular articles from my blog in 2015. This "People's Choice" list contains many interesting articles, but some of my personal favorites did not make the list. Today I present the "Editor's Choice" list of articles that deserve a second look. I've grouped […] The post Twelve posts from 2015 that deserve a second look appeared first on The DO Loop.

## Farewell Peter Hall (1951-2016)

January 11, 2016
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Peter Hall passed away on Saturday after a long battle with illness over the last couple of years. No statistician will need reminding of Peter’s extensive contributions to the field. He had over 500 published papers, and had won every major awa...