Overwhelming Growth In National Support for Bernie Sanders Mapped

February 25, 2016
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Overwhelming Growth In National Support for Bernie Sanders Mapped

The FEC just released the most recent campaign contributor data and the results show a strong continued widespread growth in support for Bernie Sanders across the country.Figure 1: A map of what counties and states support Bernie Sanders relative to th...

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Probability paradox may be killing thousands

February 25, 2016
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Brian Kinghorn points to this news article by Christian Grothoff and J. M. Porup, “The NSA’s SKYNET program may be killing thousands of innocent people; ‘Ridiculously optimistic’ machine learning algorithm is ‘completely bullshit,’ says expert.” The article begins: In 2014, the former director of both the CIA and NSA proclaimed that “we kill people based […] The post Probability paradox may be killing thousands appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Fundamental difficulty of inference for a ratio when the denominator could be positive or negative

February 25, 2016
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Fundamental difficulty of inference for a ratio when the denominator could be positive or negative

I happened to come across this post from 2011, which in turn is based on thoughts of mine from about 1993. It’s important and most of you probably haven’t seen it, so here it is again: Ratio estimates are common in statistics. In survey sampling, the ratio estimate is when you use y/x to estimate […] The post Fundamental difficulty of inference for a ratio when the denominator could be…

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Omitting outliers

February 24, 2016
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Omitting outliers

Someone sent me this email today: One of my colleagues said that you once said/wrote that you had encountered very few real outliers in your work, and that normally the “outlier-looking” data points were proper data points that should not ...

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Making data analysis easier: Hadley Wickham at WOMBAT2016

February 24, 2016
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Making data analysis easier: Hadley Wickham at WOMBAT2016

Slides for Hadley’s talk The slides for all the other talks from the workshop are also now online at wombat2016.org

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Nonprofit Stan!

February 24, 2016
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Nonprofit Stan!

Stan is now linked to NumFocus, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization that serves several other open-source software projects, including NumPy, Julia, Jupyter, and others: Stan can now accept tax-deductible contributions through this foundation. If you’re interested in donating to Stan, you can contact us directly or just go through the donation page. Stan is a worthy […] The post Nonprofit Stan! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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More Shiny user showcase demonstrations

February 24, 2016
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More Shiny user showcase demonstrations

We at Win-Vector LLC are very proud to announce that RStudio just inducted two more of our demonstration Shiny applications into their Shiny User Showcase gallery. Checkout the gallery to see our demonstrations of: Finding the k in k-means A/B test interactive design and analysis tool The geometry of classifiers RStudio (the authors of Shiny) … Continue reading More Shiny user showcase demonstrations

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Stan does Valentine’s

February 24, 2016
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Stan does Valentine’s

Today’s story starts with a bit of statistically-related fluff, a news report from Emily Crockett entitled, “Here’s how much people in your state spend on Valentine’s Day gifts”: A survey by Finder.com asked 3,121 Americans how much they spend on Valentine’s Day gifts for their loved ones, and figured out which US states spend the […] The post Stan does Valentine’s appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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On the Ethics of Expert Advocacy Consulting

February 24, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: A ponderous elaboration of an acerbic line by Upton Sinclair. Written so long ago I've honestly forgotten what incident provoked it, then left to gather dust and re-discovered by accident. A common defense of experts c...

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Four ways to create a design matrix in SAS

February 24, 2016
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Four ways to create a design matrix in SAS

SAS programmers sometimes ask, "How do I create a design matrix in SAS?" A design matrix is a numerical matrix that represents the explanatory variables in regression models. In simple models, the design matrix contains one column for each continuous variable and multiple columns (called dummy variables) for each classification […] The post Four ways to create a design matrix in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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"Fast Bayesian Factor Analysis via Automatic Rotations to Sparsity" (Next Week at the Statistics Seminar)

February 24, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: Only of interest if (1) you care about factor analysis and Bayesian nonparametrics, and (2) will be in Pittsburgh on Monday. Constant readers, knowing of my love-hate relationship with both factor analysis and with Baye...

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Mister P: Challenges in Generalizing from Sample to Population (my talk at the Ross-Royall Symposium at Johns Hopkins this Friday)

February 23, 2016
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Mister P: Challenges in Generalizing from Sample to Population Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University With internet surveys, nonrepresentativeness and nonresponse are bigger concerns than ever. The natural approach is to adjust for more information, demographic and otherwise, to align the sample with the population. We demonstrate the effectiveness […] The post Mister P: Challenges in Generalizing from Sample to Population (my talk at…

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New R package for Eyelink eye-trackers

February 23, 2016
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New R package for Eyelink eye-trackers

Eyelink eye-trackers output an avalanche of disorganised crap. I’ve written an R package that will hopefully filter that crap for you. It’s called eyelinker and it’s on Github. It outputs a set of dataframes containing raw traces, saccades, fixations and blinks, meaning it’s easy to produce plots like this one: There’s a vignette explaining everything, […]

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An apology and a note on Stockholm Syndrome

February 23, 2016
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An apology and a note on Stockholm Syndrome

A few months ago I wrote a couple posts on Christian Hesse, a statistician who I referred to as “the plagiarist next door.” But as Christian correctly pointed out, the material in question was not plagiarized, or at least I have not been shown any evidence of such, and I have no reason to believe […] The post An apology and a note on Stockholm Syndrome appeared first on Statistical…

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Spreadsheets: The Original Analytics Dashboard

February 23, 2016
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Soon after my discussion with Hilary Parker and Jenny Bryan about spreadsheets on Not So Standard Deviations, Brooke Anderson forwarded me this article written by Steven Levy about the original granddaddy of spreadsheets, VisiCalc. Actually, the real article was written back in 1984 as so-called microcomputers were just getting their start. VisiCalc was originally written for

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Spreadsheets: The Original Analytics Dashboard

February 23, 2016
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Soon after my discussion with Hilary Parker and Jenny Bryan about spreadsheets on Not So Standard Deviations, Brooke Anderson forwarded me this article written by Steven Levy about the original granddaddy of spreadsheets, VisiCalc. Actually, the real ...

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Spreadsheets: The Original Analytics Dashboard

February 23, 2016
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Soon after my discussion with Hilary Parker and Jenny Bryan about spreadsheets on Not So Standard Deviations, Brooke Anderson forwarded me this article written by Steven Levy about the original granddaddy of spreadsheets, VisiCalc. Actually, the real ...

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Next Kölner R User Meeting: Friday, 26 Feburary 2016

February 23, 2016
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Next Kölner R User Meeting: Friday, 26 Feburary 2016

The 17th Cologne R user group meeting is scheduled for this Friday, 26 February 2016. We have two talks, followed by networking drinks. Introduction to Bayesian Regression Models using Stan with the brms package - Paul-Christian Bürkner (Uni Münster)...

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Business Intelligence and Data Science Groups in East Tennessee

February 22, 2016
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The Knoxville area has four groups that help people learn about business intelligence and data science. The Knoxville R Users Group (KRUG) focuses on the free and open source R language. Each meeting begins with a bit of socializing followed … Continue reading →

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Advanced Analytics Software’s Most Important Feature? Gartner Says it’s VCF

February 22, 2016
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Advanced Analytics Software’s Most Important Feature? Gartner Says it’s VCF

The IT research firm, Gartner, Inc. has released its February 2016 report, Magic Quadrant for Advanced Analytics Platforms. The report’s main graph shows the completeness of each company’s vision plotted against its ability to achieve that vision (Figure 1.) I … Continue reading →

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Too big to fail: Why it’s unrealistic to expect scientific journals to retract their huge backlog of erroneous papers

February 22, 2016
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Too big to fail:  Why it’s unrealistic to expect scientific journals to retract their huge backlog of erroneous papers

I couple years ago I wrote an article, “It’s too hard to publish criticisms and obtain data for replication.” I gave two examples demonstrating the struggles of myself and others to get journals to admit errors. The problem is that the standards for post-publication review are higher than for pre-publication review. You can find an […] The post Too big to fail: Why it’s unrealistic to expect scientific journals to…

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Too big to fail: Why it’s unrealistic to expect scientific journals to retract their huge backlog of erroneous papers

February 22, 2016
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Too big to fail:  Why it’s unrealistic to expect scientific journals to retract their huge backlog of erroneous papers

I couple years ago I wrote an article, “It’s too hard to publish criticisms and obtain data for replication.” I gave two examples demonstrating the struggles of myself and others to get journals to admit errors. The problem is that the standards for post-publication review are higher than for pre-publication review. You can find an […] The post Too big to fail: Why it’s unrealistic to expect scientific journals to…

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Hillary 1993: Largest Drop in Girl Names EVER; Chelsea Distant Second

February 22, 2016
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Hillary 1993: Largest Drop in Girl Names EVER; Chelsea Distant Second

Recently, I wrote an little post that got a lot of attention and some criticism, As First Lady, Popularity of Babies Named "Hillary" Dropped by an Unprecedented 90%.The attention was likely due to the large number of people who are attempting to evaluate Hillary Clinton as a viable general election candidate. These people might rightly or wrongly assume that measures of popularity from her as First Lady are at least…

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