Yes, Clinical Trials Work

July 15, 2013
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This saturday the New York Times published an opinion pieces wondering "do clinical trials work?". The answer, of course, is: absolutely. For those that don't know the history, randomized control trials (RCTs) are one of the reasons why life spans skyrocketed … Continue reading →

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Forward causal reasoning statements are about estimation; reverse causal questions are about model checking and hypothesis generation

July 15, 2013
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Forward causal reasoning statements are about estimation; reverse causal questions are about model checking and hypothesis generation

Consider two broad classes of inferential questions: 1. Forward causal inference. What might happen if we do X? What are the effects of smoking on health, the effects of schooling on knowledge, the effect of campaigns on election outcomes, and so forth? 2. Reverse causal inference. What causes Y? Why do more attractive people earn […]The post Forward causal reasoning statements are about estimation; reverse causal questions are about model…

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Wasserman on noninformative priors

July 15, 2013
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Wasserman on noninformative priors

Larry Wasserman calls the use of noninformative priors a “lost cause.” I agree for the reasons he stated, and the fact that there are always better alternatives anyway. At the very least, there are the heavy-tailed “weakly informative priors” t...

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Win a Signed Copy of my New Book

July 15, 2013
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This is cross-posted on my two blogs. For my fans on either of my two blogs, I'm giving away a free signed copy of my new book, Numbersense. (See my book announcement.) All you have to do is to answer...

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Win an Autographed Book

July 15, 2013
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This is cross-posted on my two blogs. For my fans on either of my two blogs, I'm giving away a free signed copy of my new book, Numbersense. All you have to do is to answer 3 questions, based on a few sample pages (see the PDF here; also on Slideshare). Click on the quiz to enter. The contest is open until Friday, July 19, 2013 (11:59 PM PST). This…

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Bin observations by using custom cut points and unevenly spaced bins

July 15, 2013
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Bin observations by using custom cut points and unevenly spaced bins

It is often useful to partition observations for a continuous variable into a small number of intervals, called bins. This familiar process occurs every time that you create a histogram, such as the one on the left. In SAS you can create this histogram by calling the UNIVARIATE procedure. Optionally, [...]

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Conference Report: Tapestry 2013

July 15, 2013
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Conference Report: Tapestry 2013

About 100 attendees, three keynotes, five short talks, demos, discussions, food, music, and a fantastic atmosphere: the Tapestry conference for storytelling with data took place on February 27 in Nashville, TN. Here is a conference report with links to talk videos, as well as some first news on Tapestry 2014. Setting and Format Conference hotels tend to all look the same: nondescript, badly lit, depressing ballrooms, terrible acoustics, and just way too many…

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Imputing Missing Data With Expectation – Maximization

July 15, 2013
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Imputing Missing Data With Expectation – Maximization

It can be fairly common to find missing values in a dataset. Having only a few missing values isn’t generally a problem and those records can be deleted listwise. In other words the entire record is simply removed from the analysis. The problem is even with a limited amount missing data, that can translate into […]

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The Knife-edge of Competence

July 14, 2013
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The Knife-edge of Competence

I do my own video-editing using a very versatile and complex program called Adobe Premiere Pro. I have had no formal training, and get help by ringing my son, who taught me all I know and can usually rescue me … Continue reading →

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Linear regression from the ground up

July 14, 2013
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Linear regression from the ground up

Linear regression is a very basic technique that we use a lot in machine learning. In a lot of cases (and I have been guilty of this), we just use it without much thought as to how the internals actually work. In a 2-D coordinate system, we can plot observations (such as, a child’s age is 1), and associated dependent variables (ie, the child has 1 friend) on an x/y…

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Parallel Tempering Algorithm with OpenMP / C++

Parallel Tempering Algorithm with OpenMP / C++

1.1. Parallel Tempering Theory 1.2. Physics Origins 2.1 Intra-Thread Metropolis Move 2.2. Inter-Thread Parallel Tempering 2.3. OpenMP Parallelization 3. Full Code 4. Simulation Study 5. On the Future use of Parallel Tempering with OpenMP Parallel tempering is one of my favourite sampling algorithms to improve MCMC mixing times. This algorithm seems to be used exclusively […] The post Parallel Tempering Algorithm with OpenMP / C++ appeared first on Lindons Log.

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Linear Regression from the Ground Up

July 14, 2013
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Linear Regression from the Ground Up

Linear regression is a very basic technique that we use a lot in machine learning. In a lot of cases (and I have been guilty of this), we just use it without much thought as to how the internals actually work. In a 2-D coordinate system, we can plot observations (such as, a child's age is 1), and associated dependent variables (ie, the child has 1 friend) on an x/y…

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Sunday data/statistics link roundup (7/14/2013)

July 14, 2013
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Question: Do clinical trials work?Answer: Yes. Clinical trials are one of the defining success stories in the process of scientific inquiry. Do they work as fast/efficiently as a pharma company with potentially billions on the line would like? That is definitely … Continue reading →

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Inverting your very own matrix

July 14, 2013
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Inverting your very own matrix

Introduction I had my natural predilection towards math crushed out of me at some point in school, and after that point, Math (yes, we are referring to the higher power of math) and I had a wary understanding. I dabbled quietly, and Math turned a blind eye to me ignoring some of its deeper theory. When I stuggled loudly, Math did its best to hide its smirks. I generally refrained…

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Inverting your very own matrix

July 14, 2013
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Inverting your very own matrix

Introduction I had my natural predilection towards math crushed out of me at some point in school, and after that point, Math (yes, we are referring to the higher power of math) and I had a wary understanding. I dabbled quietly, and Math turned a blind eye to me ignoring some of its deeper theory. When I stuggled loudly, Math did its best to hide its smirks. I generally refrained…

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Learning how to speak

July 14, 2013
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Learning how to speak

I’ve been trying to reduce my American accent when speaking French. I tried taping my voice and playing it back, but that didn’t help. I couldn’t actually tell that I had a strong accent by listening to myself. My own voice is just too familiar to me. Then Malecki told me about the international phonetic […]The post Learning how to speak appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Inverting your very own matrix

July 14, 2013
By
Inverting your very own matrix

Introduction I had my natural predilection towards math crushed out of me at some point in school, and after that point, Math (yes, we are referring to the higher power of math) and I had a wary understanding. I dabbled quietly, and Math turned a blind eye to me ignoring some of its deeper theory. When I stuggled loudly, Math did its best to hide its smirks. I generally refrained…

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useR 2013 was a blast!

July 14, 2013
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useR 2013 was a blast!

I had a great time at useR 2013 in Albacete, Spain. The food was great, the people were fun and the weather was hot. A pleasant surprise was that I won the useR data analysis contest with my submission “Modeling Match Results in La Liga Using a Hie...

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Rain in Netherlands during the past 100 years

July 14, 2013
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Rain in Netherlands during the past 100 years

Climate has my interest. But discussions on climate change seem to be focused on temperature. In real life, we look at temperature, rain, sunshine and wind. I was therefor happy to find a load of rain data on Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute....

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Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance

July 14, 2013
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Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance

Stephen Senn Head, Methodology and Statistics Group, Competence Center for Methodology and Statistics (CCMS), Luxembourg At a workshop on randomisation I attended recently I was depressed to hear what I regard as hackneyed untruths treated as if they were important objections. One of these is that of indefinitely many confounders. The argument goes that although […]

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Zero to hero

July 13, 2013
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Zero to hero

Recently, I've been working on a paper, which I think is coming along nicely. The basic problem is like this: in a health economic evaluation, sometimes data are collected on a sample of individuals. Say, for example, that $n_0$ subjects are given a st...

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Meritocracy rerun

July 13, 2013
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I’ve said it here so often, this time I put it on the sister blog. . . . The post Meritocracy rerun appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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LOST CAUSES IN STATISTICS II: Noninformative Priors

July 13, 2013
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LOST CAUSES IN STATISTICS II:  Noninformative Priors

LOST CAUSES IN STATISTICS II: Noninformative Priors I thought I would post at a higher frequency in the summer. But I have been working hard to finish some papers which has kept me quite busy. So, apologies for the paucity of posts. Today I’ll discuss another lost cause: noninformative priors. I like to say that … … Continue reading →

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