Two Unrecognized Hall Of Fame Shortstops

February 12, 2015
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Michael Humphreys writes: Thought you might be interested in or might like to link to the following article. The statistical rigor is obviously not at a professional level, but pitched somewhere around the Bill Jamesian level. Here’s the link. This sort of thing makes me realize how out of it I am, when it comes […] The post Two Unrecognized Hall Of Fame Shortstops appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Minimalism as a form of abuse

February 12, 2015
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Minimalism as a form of abuse

With each succeeding year, I get more and more frustrated with "minimalist" designs that have little respect for users. This Christmas, I received a portable cellphone charger as a gift. A thoughtful gift. I have heard of these devices but...

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Stan 2.6.0 Released

February 12, 2015
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Stan 2.6.0 Released

We’re happy to announce the release of Stan 2.6, including RStan, PyStan, CmdStan; it will also work with the existing Stan.jl and MatlabStan. Although there is some new functionality (hence the minor version bump), this is primarily a maintenance release. It fixes all of the known memory issues with Stan 2.5.0 and improves overall speed […] The post Stan 2.6.0 Released appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Stan 2.6.0 Released

February 12, 2015
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Stan 2.6.0 Released

We’re happy to announce the release of Stan 2.6, including RStan, PyStan, CmdStan; it will also work with the existing Stan.jl and MatlabStan. Although there is some new functionality (hence the minor version bump), this is primarily a maintenance release. It fixes all of the known memory issues with Stan 2.5.0 and improves overall speed […] The post Stan 2.6.0 Released appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Leonardo da Vinci (1) vs. The guy who did Piss Christ

February 11, 2015
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Leonardo da Vinci (1) vs. The guy who did Piss Christ

Determining yesterday‘s winner turned out to be complicated. On the face of it, the decision should be easy. Bruno Latour is some postmodernist dude, whereas Albert Camus is one of the coolest men who’s ever lived. But, in comments, Kyle came in with a pretty powerful argument: I’m afraid you couldn’t get Camus to stay […] The post Leonardo da Vinci (1) vs. The guy who did Piss Christ appeared…

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Video: Nigel Holmes on Humor in Visualization and Infographics

February 11, 2015
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In this talk, Nigel Holmes talks about the value of and use of humor in communicating visualization. He also has some interesting criticism of academic visualization research (and also some more artistic pieces). It’s a fun and interesting tal...

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Forecasts From Financial Markets

February 11, 2015
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I'm thinking about broad approaches ("general principles" below) for getting various kinds of forecasts from various kinds of forward-looking financial markets (under assumptions, of course, that typically include risk neutrality).   Did I miss an...

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When the evidence is unclear

February 11, 2015
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A few months ago I posted on a paper by Bernard Tanguy et al. on a field experiment in Ethiopia where I couldn’t figure out, from the article, where was the empirical support for the claims being made. This was not the first time I’d had this feeling about a claim made in social science […] The post When the evidence is unclear appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Binary heart in SAS

February 11, 2015
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Binary heart in SAS

The xkcd comic often makes me think and laugh. The comic features physics, math, and statistics among its topics. Many years ago, the comic showed a "binary heart": a grid of binary (0/1) numbers with the certain numbers colored red so that they formed a heart. Some years later, I […]

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Scheduling R Tasks via Windows Task Scheduler

February 11, 2015
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Scheduling R Tasks via Windows Task Scheduler

This post will allow you to impress your boss with your strong work ethic by enabling Windows R users to schedule late night tasks.  Picture it, your boss gets an email at 1:30 in the morning with the latest company … Continue reading →

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Scheduling R Tasks via Windows Task Scheduler

February 11, 2015
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Scheduling R Tasks via Windows Task Scheduler

This post will allow you to impress your boss with your strong work ethic by enabling Windows R users to schedule late night tasks.  Picture it, your boss gets an email at 1:30 in the morning with the latest company … Continue reading →

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BayesFactorExtras: a sneak preview

February 10, 2015
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Felix Schönbrodt and I have been working on an R package called BayesFactorExtras. This package is designed to work with the BayesFactor package, providing features beyond the core BayesFactor functionality. Currently in the package are:Sequential Bay...

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“When Do Stories Work? Evidence and Illustration in the Social Sciences”: My talk in the Harvard sociology dept this Thurs noon

February 10, 2015
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Stories are central to social science. It might be pleasant to consider stories as mere adornments and explications of theories that we develop and evaluate via formal data collection, but it seems that all of us—including statisticians!—rely on stories to develop our understanding of the social world. And therein lies a paradox: stories are valued […] The post “When Do Stories Work? Evidence and Illustration in the Social Sciences”: My…

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Albert Camus (1) vs. Bruno Latour

February 10, 2015
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Yesterday‘s winner: Thomas Kinkade. It was a tough call. Duchamp is far more impressive both as an artist and as an intellectual, but, as Jonathan put it in the very first comment in the thread: Duchamp has nothing to teach in an academic seminar: epater les bourgeois, reconceptualize art in a time of technological change, […] The post Albert Camus (1) vs. Bruno Latour appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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In search of the elusive loop of plagiarism

February 10, 2015
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In search of the elusive loop of plagiarism

OK, here’s a research project for you. From this recent blog comment, I learned about Mustapha Marrouchi, a professor of literature who has plagiarized from various writers, including the noted academic entertainer Slavoj Zizek. Amusing, given that Zizek himself has been caught plagiarizing. Zizek copied from Stanley Hornbeck. Did Hornbeck plagiarize from anyone else? Probably […] The post In search of the elusive loop of plagiarism appeared first on Statistical…

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Bayesian analysis of match rates on Tinder

February 10, 2015
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Bayesian analysis of match rates on Tinder

Last fall I taught an introduction to Bayesian statistics at Olin College. My students worked on some excellent projects, and I invited them to write up their results as guest articles for this blog. Just in time for Valentine's Day, here's the secon...

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What have a physicist, an entrepreneur and an actor in common?

February 10, 2015
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What have a physicist, an entrepreneur and an actor in common?

They all try to do something new and take the risk to be seen as a fool.Over the last few days I stumbled over three videos by a physicist, an entrepreneur and an actor, which at first have little in common, but they do. They all need to know when they...

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What’s wrong with taking (1 – β)/α, as a likelihood ratio comparing H0 and H1?

February 10, 2015
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What’s wrong with taking (1 – β)/α, as a likelihood ratio comparing H0 and H1?

Here’s a quick note on something that I often find in discussions on tests, even though it treats “power”, which is a capacity-of-test notion, as if it were a fit-with-data notion….. 1. Take a one-sided Normal test T+: with n iid samples: H0: µ ≤  0 against H1: µ >  0 σ = 10,  n = 100,  σ/√n =σx= 1,  α = […]

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The trouble with evaluating anything

February 10, 2015
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It is very hard to evaluate people's productivity or work in any meaningful way. This problem is the source of: Consternation about peer review The reason why post publication peer review doesn't work Consternation about faculty evaluation Major problems at companies like Yahoo and Microsoft. Roger and I were just talking about this problem in the

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Thanks Paul and welcome Dilek

February 9, 2015
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Thanks Paul and welcome Dilek

Today, there is a change in editors at the International Journal of Forecasting. Paul Goodwin is retiring from the editorial board, and Dilek Önkal is taking his place. Paul Goodwin was appointed as an associate editor in 1999 and as an editor in 2010. Paul is retiring from his position as Professor of Management Science […]

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Numbersense, in Chinese and Japanese

February 9, 2015
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Numbersense, in Chinese and Japanese

This is a cross-post on my two blogs. The new year brings news that my second book, Numbersense: How to Use Big Data to Your Advantage has been translated into Chinese (simplified) and Japanese. Here are the book covers: In...

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Numbersense, in Chinese and Japanese

February 9, 2015
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Numbersense, in Chinese and Japanese

This is a cross-post on my two blogs. The new year brings news that my second book, Numbersense: How to Use Big Data to Your Advantage has been translated into Chinese (simplified) and Japanese. Here are the book covers: In Chinese, the title reads: ...

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Marcel Duchamp (4) vs. Thomas Kinkade

February 9, 2015
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Marcel Duchamp (4) vs. Thomas Kinkade

The winner of yesterday‘s bout is Thoreau. The best pro-Thoreau argument came from JRC: “This one breaks down to to whose narrative on loneliness and solitude is more interesting: the guy who removed himself from society, or the guy forcibly removed from it. Lifetime probability of incarceration and homelessness seems in the same ballpark, so […] The post Marcel Duchamp (4) vs. Thomas Kinkade appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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