Residual expertise – or why scientists are amateurs at most of science

May 18, 2015
By

Editor's note: I have been unsuccessfully attempting to finish a book I started 3 years ago about how and why everyone should get pumped about reading and understanding scientific papers. I've adapted part of one of the chapters into this blogpost. It is pretty raw but hopefully gets the idea across.  An episode of The Daily Show with

Read more »

On deck this week

May 18, 2015
By

Mon: Bob Carpenter’s favorite books on GUI design and programming Tues: Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks Wed: Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” Thurs: “Physical Models of Living Systems” Fri: Creativity is the abilit...

Read more »

Five Not-to-be-Missed Ideas about Big Data

May 18, 2015
By

If I believed in upvoting, I would be clicking my fingers bent on this op-ed article that appeared in the New York Times at the beginning of May. It's written by "data scientists" at Facebook and Google. (Thanks Dean Eckles for drawing my attention to it!) Here are a list of important ideas not to be missed: The things we can measure are never exactly what we care about When…

Read more »

Improving the NC vehicle inspection pie chart

May 18, 2015
By
Improving the NC vehicle inspection pie chart

North Carolina is a state that requires yearly inspections of motor vehicles. An inspection checks for safety features (lights, brakes, tires,....) as well as checking vehicle emissions to ensure that vehicles meet air pollution standards. I recently had a car inspected and noticed a pie chart on the inspection's summary […] The post Improving the NC vehicle inspection pie chart appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

Feedback Loops for Better Talks

May 18, 2015
By
Feedback Loops for Better Talks

Feedback loops are a common concept in engineering. When it comes to giving talks, academics would do well to apply some of the thinking behind them to improve their output by observing how it deviates from the desired one, and making changes to adjust it. I’ve been to a number of conferences lately that had a … Continue reading Feedback Loops for Better Talks

Read more »

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, February 2015

May 18, 2015
By

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Paul J. McAuley, Something Coming Through Mind candy science fiction: in which the aliens showed up some years in the narrative past, and offered us access to the same dozen habitable planets orbiting ...

Read more »

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, February 2015

May 17, 2015
By

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Paul J. McAuley, Something Coming Through Mind candy science fiction: in which the aliens showed up some years in the narrative past, and offered us access to the same dozen habitable planets orbiting ...

Read more »

“Do we have any recommendations for priors for student_t’s degrees of freedom parameter?”

May 17, 2015
By

In response to the above question, Aki writes: I recommend as an easy default option real nu; nu ~ gamma(2,0.1); This was proposed and anlysed by Juárez and Steel (2010) (Model-based clustering of non-Gaussian panel data based on skew-t distributions. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 28, 52–66.). Juárez and Steel compere this to Jeffreys […] The post “Do we have any recommendations for priors for student_t’s degrees of freedom…

Read more »

The paper helicopter experiment

May 17, 2015
By

The paper helicopter is one of the devices to explain about design of experiments. The aim is to create the longest flying paper helicopter by means of experimental design.Paper helicopters are a nice example, because they are cheap to make, easy to te...

Read more »

Are you ready to go fishing in the data lake?

May 16, 2015
By
Are you ready to go fishing in the data lake?

While Andrew is trying to get someone to make a t-shirt design “Gone fishing”, someone else thinks fishing is one of the “big data trends in 2015″. This advertisement by some company keeps re-appearing in my twitter feed. The p...

Read more »

Apology to George A. Romero

May 16, 2015
By

This came in the email one day last year: Good Afternoon Mr. Gelman, I am reaching out to you on behalf of Pearson Education who would like to license an excerpt of text from How Many Zombies Do You Know? for the following, upcoming textbook program: Title: Writing Today Author: Richard Johnson-Sheehan and Charles Paine […] The post Apology to George A. Romero appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

Mark Thoma Interviews Koen Jochmans

May 15, 2015
By
Mark Thoma Interviews Koen Jochmans

The Denis Sargan Econometrics Prize is awarded annually by the Royal Economic Society for "the best (unsolicited) article published in The Econometrics Journal in a given year by anyone who is within five years of being awarded their doctorate."Th...

Read more »

I actually think this infographic is ok

May 15, 2015
By

Under the heading, “bad charts,” Mark Duckenfield links to this display by Quoctrung Bui and writes: So much to go with here, but I [Duckenfield] would just highlight the bars as the most egregious problem as it is implied that the same number of people are in each category. Obviously that is not the case […] The post I actually think this infographic is ok appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

Read more »

New in forecast 6.0

May 15, 2015
By
New in forecast 6.0

This week I uploaded a new version of the forecast package to CRAN. As there were a lot of changes, I decided to increase the version number to 6.0. The changes are all outlined in the ChangeLog file as usual. I will highlight some of the more important changes since v5.0 here. ETS One of […]

Read more »

Interesting New Work on Yield Curve Modeling

May 14, 2015
By
Interesting New Work on Yield Curve Modeling

Loved last week's PIER lectures at Penn. Good people, good times, good spring weather.  (Please join us next year in May 2016! More information in due course.) On Thursday we did yield curves, which had me thinking about what's new that I lik...

Read more »

The connection between varying treatment effects and the well-known optimism of published research findings

May 14, 2015
By

Jacob Hartog writes: I thought this article [by Hunt Allcott and Sendhil Mullainathan], although already a couple of years old, fits very well into the themes of your blog—in particular the idea that the “true” treatment effect is likely to vary a lot depending on all kinds of factors that we can and cannot observe, […] The post The connection between varying treatment effects and the well-known optimism of published…

Read more »

No major hurricanes have hit the US coast recently. Lucky us!

May 14, 2015
By
No major hurricanes have hit the US coast recently. Lucky us!

Perhaps you saw the headlines earlier this week about the fact that it has been nine years since the last major hurricane (category 3, 4, or 5) hit the US coast. According to a post on the GeoSpace blog, which is published by the American Geophysical Union (AGU), researchers ran […] The post No major hurricanes have hit the US coast recently. Lucky us! appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

What’s so great about real names?

May 14, 2015
By

A little while back a New York Times article discusses the consequences for college admission of saying undiplomatic things in social media. Apparently colleges monitor, or at least check up on, the social media presence of their potential applicants to see … Continue reading →

Read more »

More changes to the IJF editorial board

May 14, 2015
By
More changes to the IJF editorial board

The editorial board of the International Journal of Forecasting is going through a renewal process with several changes to the team of editors and the team of associate editors in the last few weeks. New Editors Graham Elliott has decided to step down from the IJF editorial board after many years of service. Graham is […]

Read more »

The Bayesian New Statistics: Two Historical Trends Converge

May 14, 2015
By
The Bayesian New Statistics: Two Historical Trends Converge

If not null hypothesis significance testing, then what? If not p values, then confidence intervals? If not NHST, then Bayes factors? Both? Neither? These issues are addressed in a new manuscript titled The Bayesian New Statistics: Two Historical Trends...

Read more »

Webinar

May 13, 2015
By
Webinar

Yesterday, I have given a webinar (is it even how you say it? "give a webinar"? Anyway...). It was organised by Mapi and I spoke about using the analysis of the value of information in health economic evaluation. The link to the complete webi...

Read more »

ICTM Conference

May 13, 2015
By

I've been asked to advertise the upcoming International Clinical Trial Methodology conference $-$ this year it will be held in Glasgow. Oddly enough, this will be the second time in a row that the conference is held in Scotland (the 2nd edition wa...

Read more »

What is Data Science? Can Topic Modeling Help?

May 13, 2015
By
What is Data Science? Can Topic Modeling Help?

Predictive analytics often serves as an introduction to data science, but it may not be the best exemplar given its long history and origins in statistics. David Blei, on the other hand, struggles to define data science through his work on topic modeli...

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe