## Phil 6334: Day #3: Feb 6, 2014

February 9, 2014
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Day #3: Spanos lecture notes 2, and reading/resources from Feb 6 seminar  6334 Day 3 slides: Spanos-lecture-2 ___ Crupi & Tentori (2010). Irrelevant Conjunction: Statement and Solution of a New Paradox, Phil Sci, 77, 1–13. Hawthorne & Fitelson (2004). Re-Solving Irrelevant Conjunction with Probabilistic Independence, Phil Sci 71: 505–514. Skryms (1975) Choice and Chance 2nd ed. Chapter V and Carnap (pp. 206-211), Dickerson Pub. […]

## A Blast From the Past

February 8, 2014
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Doesn't time fly! Around the end of August 1994 Lief Bluck and I put together a web site for our department. That may not sound very interesting, but let's put things in perspective.Our University didn't have a web site - not many universities did. The...

## “Guys who do more housework get less sex”

February 8, 2014
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Sometimes I have a few minutes where I can work, but I don’t feel like working. So I follow the blogroll, this time from here to here: Sabino Kornrich, Julie Brines, Katrina Leupp. Egalitarianism, Housework, and Sexual Frequency in Marriage American Sociological Review February 2013 vol. 78 no. 1 26-50 doi: 10.1177/0003122412472340 Data are from Wave […]The post “Guys who do more housework get less sex” appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## Mugged

February 8, 2014
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Rasmus posted a couple of comments on my Christmas-present mug and apparently has started a collection of his own. But, then again, I think the mug galore has hit hard on many (eg here)... I'm going to have to get another one soon, ...

## Detecting seasonality

February 8, 2014
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I occasionally get email asking how to detect whether seasonality is present in a data set. Sometimes the period of the potential seasonality is known, but in other cases it is not. I’ve discussed before how to estimate an unknown seasonal period, and how to measure the strength of the seasonality. In this post, I want to look at testing if a series is seasonal when the potential period is…

## Vintage Years in Econometrics – The 1960′s

February 7, 2014
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Remember that saying - "if you can remember the 60's you probably weren't there"? Well, with that said, and continuing from my earlier posts about vintage years for econometrics in the 1930's, 1940's, and 1950's, here's my take on t...

## Outrage of the week

February 7, 2014
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Mark Palko passes this one along from high school principal Carol Burris: My music teacher, Doreen, brought me her second-grade daughter’s math homework. She was already fuming over Education Secretary Arne Duncan’s remark about why “white suburban moms” oppose the Common Core, and the homework added fuel to the fire. The problem that disturbed her […]The post Outrage of the week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

## Personal Analytics with RSS Feeds

February 7, 2014
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I am currently working on a paper on Academic Blogging, from my own experience. And I wanted to do something similar to Stephen Wolfram’s personal analytics of my life. More specifically, I wanted to understand when I do post my blog entries. If I post more entries during office hours, then it should mean that, indeed, I consider my blog as a part of my job (which is something I believe, actually).…

## All else is equal except that one is more equal than the other

February 7, 2014
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The mis-use of "all else being equal" in statistics and much of the social sciences is a disease. The key to diagnosing this abuse is to recognize that there are two modes of "all else being equal". I call it the "design" mode and the "pretend" mode. An example of using "all else being equal" in the design mode is the classic randomization principle. If we run an A/B test…

## 2014 SoFiE Financial Econometrics Summer School at Harvard

February 7, 2014
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The 2014 Society for Financial Econometrics (SoFiE) Summer School in Financial Econometrics will take place July 28 - August 1 at Harvard University. This is the third annual edition; 2012 and 2013 were highly successful, and I'm certain that 2014 will...

## Bayesian Mugs Galore!

February 7, 2014
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Having no personal mug at the department I recently created a Bayesian themed one with the message “Make the Puppies Happy. Do Bayesian Data Analysis.” This is of course a homage to the cover of Johns K. Kruschke’s extraordinary book Doing Baye...

## An xts R Inferno-ism

February 7, 2014
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Another of the all ye entering here. Issue When subscripting an xts object, columns that don’t exist in the object are silently ignored. Example First, create an xts object: xtx <- xts(cbind(a=1:4, b=11:14, c=21:24), order=Sys.Date() + 1:4) which looks like: > xtx a b c 2014-02-07 1 11 21 2014-02-08 2 12 22 2014-02-09 3 […]

## knitr in a knutshell tutorial

February 7, 2014
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I spent a lot of time this week writing a short tutorial on knitr: knitr in a knutshell. This is my third little tutorial. (The previous ones were a git/github guide and a minimal make tutorial.) I’m pleased with these tutorials. In learning new computing skills, it can be hard to get started. My goal […]

## Statistics and Computing special MCMSk’issue [call for papers]

February 6, 2014
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Following the exciting and innovative talks, posters and discussions at MCMski IV, the editor of Statistics and Computing, Mark Girolami (who also happens to be the new president-elect of the BayesComp section of ISBA, which is taking over the management of future MCMski meetings), kindly proposed to publish a special issue of the journal open […]

## Random Forest Almighty

February 6, 2014
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Random Forests are awesome. They do not overfit, they are easy to tune, they tell you about important variables, they can be used for classification and regression, they are implemented in many programming languages and they are faster than their competitors (neural nets, boosting, support vector machines, ...)Let us take a moment to appreciate them:The Random Forest™ is my shepherd; I shall not want.     He makes me watch the mean squared…

## Conference on Macro & Financial Economics/Econometrics

February 6, 2014
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The 10th BMRC-DEMS Conference is being held at Brunel University, London (U.K.), at the end of May this year. Details can be found here.The conference themes include a number of important topics:Recent developments in time-varying and nonlinear modelsE...

## Bootstrap averaging: Examples where it works and where it doesn’t work

February 6, 2014
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$Bootstrap averaging: Examples where it works and where it doesn’t work$

Aki and I write: The very generality of the boostrap creates both opportunity and peril, allowing researchers to solve otherwise intractable problems but also sometimes leading to an answer with an inappropriately high level of certainty. We demonstrate with two examples from our own research: one problem where bootstrap smoothing was effective and led us […]The post Bootstrap averaging: Examples where it works and where it doesn’t work appeared first…

## What good is an old weather forecast?

February 6, 2014
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-+*Why would anyone care about what the weather was predicted to be once you know what the weather actually was? Because people make decisions based in part on weather predictions, not just weather. Eric Floehr of ForecastWatch told me that people are starting to realize this and are increasingly interested in his historical prediction data. […]

## Two new reviews of Numbersense

February 6, 2014
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I've learned one thing about book readers. There is a lag between buying a book and reading it. In fact, I imagine an author has two battles to win: one is at the bookstore (or Amazon) getting you to purchase the book; the next is to get you to pull out the book from your shelves and start reading it. I mean, what am I to say? I own shelves…

## Online R and Plotly Graphs: Canadian and U.S. Maps, Old Faithful with Multiple Axes, & Overlaid Histograms

February 6, 2014
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Guest post by Matt Sundquist of plot.ly. Plotly is a social graphing and analytics platform. Plotly’s R library lets you make and share publication-quality graphs online. Your work belongs to you, you control privacy and sharing, and public use is free (like GitHub). We are in beta, and would love your feedback, thoughts, and advice. […]

## Using MongoHQ to build a Shiny Hit Counter

February 6, 2014
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In serveral previous posts I have posted shiny applications which temporarily store data on shiny servers such as hit counters or the survey tool which I created,  These do not work in the long term since shiny will restart its servers without war...

## Small multiples with simple axes

February 6, 2014
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Jens M., a long-time reader, submits a good graphic! This small-multiples chart (via Quartz) compares the consumption of liquor from selected countries around the world, showing both the level of consumption and the change over time. What they did right:...

## Just a thought on peer reviewing – I can’t help myself.

February 6, 2014
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Today I was thinking about reviewing, probably because I was handling a couple of papers as AE and doing tasks associated with reviewing several other papers. I know that this is idle thinking, but suppose peer review was just a … Continue reading →

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